I’ve been contemplating this Oilers team for the last week or so, and have reached two conclusions.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ injuries already a major story in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
THE FIRST ITEM
The Oilers are never going to be a truly strong defensive team. They have too many cannons pointed in the offensive direction. Since the McDavid era began, success has come from exceptional 97 and 29, super strong goaltending and at least three exceptional defensemen. It was Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson in 2016-17, Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci and and emerging Evan Bouchard in 2021-22.
This year it has to be Nurse, Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm. The defense hasn’t performed at expected levels yet, nor has the goaltending or the glimmer twins (although they remain dynamite). The new system is the rage, but the thing that makes the Oilers hammer is 97-29, a strong goalie and three blue who can do the job.
With that as the backdrop, Stuart Skinner’s most recent performance is encouraging.
THE SECOND ITEM
What in h-e-double-hockey-sticks is Ken Holland waiting for? This Oilers team has some passengers on the roster and several Bakersfield Condors (Raphael Lavoie, Lane Pederson was hurt last night but is playing well, Xavier Bourgault, also Ben Gleason and Noel Hoefenmayer) but the Oilers blue is playing well enough to my eye) who are earning a look. If I’m Daryl Katz, and I am not and you should be thrilled I’m not, the questions for the general manager would be specific and trumpeting a call to action. RFN.
New for The Athletic: Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is spiking in an important area
https://theathletic.com/5007239/2023/10/28/oilers-prospect-xavier-bourgault-stats/
Man this team has a terrible propensity
to go flat after a soft goal.
F’n shake it off & stop feeling sorry for yourselves
R.I.P. Matthew Perry
2 starts for Rodrigue on the season and two 30+ save, 1GA performances.
Petrov battles behind the net, puck bounces out to Malone at side of the net, cross-crease and Gagner buries it for a 5-1 lead.
Lavoie now toying with the AHL – gets the puck in the slot, a one on two, and dipsy doodles around to get a good shot on net.
Roadrunners have had enough and come after Lavoie after the whistle and he ends up dropping them with Barron – some good shots back and forth and then Lavoie starts feeding him bombs.
A GREAT fight!
https://twitter.com/bcurlock/status/1718483036927660117
It’s killing me that Lavoie’s in the AHL and we’re playing Erne.
dont say it enough …. appreciate all these updates OP ,,,
Great post by NHL Sid.
https://oilersnation.com/news/the-oilers-have-ample-time-to-rebound-but-unless-something-changes-they-dont-look-like-cup-contenders
Nailed it.
Petrov moved up with Lavoie and Hamblin to start the 3rd (only 10 forwards) and is part of a strong forecheck causing a turnover – Hamblin in the high side-wall, to Lavoie in the very high slot and he snaps home his 2nd of the night (and 3rd point).
4-1.
The highlight doesn’t go back far enough to show Petrov as F1 starting the forecheck that led to the turnover:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1718478142439059546
Probably unreasonable on my part, but it would be nice to see if Lavoie could be given an opportunity in Edmonton.
He’s coming close to forcing the call-up.
We’re getting to the point where Erne on the roster and Lavoie in the AHL is fraudulent!
Lavoie strips the d-man at the defensive blue and POWERS through the neutral zone to get a bit of separation but missed short side on the breakaway.
Condors FINALLY get a PP.
Bourgault wins a side-boards puck battle, back to Gagner who quickly goes cross-ice when Lavoie is all alone and he buries the one-timer from the Ovi-spot.
Big late 2nd period goal to make it 3-1.
Condors have been dominated in the 2nd – down to 10 forwards is taking it toll!
Note the play of the half-wall by Bourgault:
https://twitter.com/Condors/status/1718470376077045965
Summarizing!
Copponi’s assist would be the only crooked number put up tonight.
Lachance, Münzenberger, Akey and Määttä (59.1 FO%) were held soupless.
Day had the night off.
Woodcroft is the anti-Sather. Sather would play the forward in a slump with Gretzky. Woodcrott promotes the guy moving the needle in the middle six to play with McDavid. Jay Woodcroft, afficionado of Peter’s Principle.
This Condors’ team is GOOD and that’s while missing 4 forwards (Caggiula, Pederson, Griffith and Tulio) – that’s some legit talent out.
They will start the 2nd down 5 on 3 for 1:09 as Kambeitz takes a stupid penalty at the buzzer.
Why should we care, when we known none of them will get a chance?
Whatever dude.
I enjoy watching the Condors – its fun for me.
Feel free to skip the posts.
Remember when Savoie kept taking a beating during rookie and main camp? Its continued in to the AHL season – on the wrong end of big thumps a few times.
Savoie hasn’t come out for the 2nd so the Condors are down to 10 forwards (and they played last night).
Gleason has taken some shifts at forward.
Wanner takes a soft dump, fires a quick transition pass up to center, Lavoie one-touches it to Hamblin who beats his man on a 1 on 1 and pots the 2-0 goal
Love the Wanner and Lavoie touches:
https://twitter.com/bcurlock/status/1718455739969372630
Condors transition through the neutral zone, work to regain a dump, Hoeffeamayer with a bomb from the right point and Kaimbeitz buries the rebound for the 1-0 lead 8 minutes in.
5 hole and low blocker are for non goal scorers
Goal scorers know when that’s there. Nons take that first and don’t score enough
Hi Nuge who quit going top cheddar
Why you ask? Watching other teams fail. Watching Oilers fail
As a team, the Oilers are below the 50th percentile in speed.https://edge.nhl.com/en/team/EDM
I think Ryan and Ekholm are the slowest on the team. With Ekholm, I’m not sure how much is hip flexor vs age.
The Jets are the fastest team in the NHL. That was a surprise. Canes second from the teams I’ve checked.In ‘top skating speed’.
It seems like top skating speed is measuring the single fastest speed recorded for any player on the team? (The team number matches Zack Hyman’s fastest speed, so I think that’s what the metric is).
If you look instead at bursts over 32 kph the Oilers are 96th percentile (WPG is 78th percentile). That fits better with what we thought we knew about the Oilers, doesn’t it?
As an aside, did you notice that Ceci has above average speed by these measures?
Yes, you’re correct. I had incorrectly assumed they had averaged the top speeds.
Yeah, I was surprised by this. I guess they only measure forward skating speed.
Kris Russell was famous for that. He could skate like the wind forwards, but had terrible gap control because he was a pylon skating backwards.
Ceci looks slow watching him, so these numbers run counter to what I would have expected.
The last thing I want is Connor rushing back for an event which is promotional
100% or sit. Rough outdoor ice. No dice
Lane Pederson left the game last night, came back and played a few shifts. He was a game time decision but is now out. Condors going 11/7 with Alex Peters drawing in.
Griffith, Caggiula, Pederson, Tulio all out with injury.
Besides ticket prices shooting up in the last hour a 75% Connor can still run the PP which probably wins the game for us. Connor saves the day takes the heat off Woody and the team I hope the boys respond for Connor.
“…super strong goaltending and at least three exceptional defensemen.”
Relying on Nurse, Ekholm and Bouchard to bring home a cup is a fools errand. You need at least another healthy Ekholm in there. Is that Ceci?
Since McDavid joined the Oilers we have ONE top-10 finish in 5v5 SV%, and that was 2016-17, That season is also the only one where we posted a positive GSAx because of Cam Talbot. Talbot, Smith, Skinner have all had good seasons for certain. Most often our goaltending measures in the bottom third of the league.
Ceci, at this point in his career, is a solid but not exceptional 3rd pairing D on a playoff team and nothing more.
Which is fine if he’s making 900K
An real argument can be made that Ceci has been the team’s most solid d-man through the season so far. 50% goal share, near 60% expected goal share while playing many of those minutes against the top comp.
21-22 Ceci was a great value D for Edmonton. Let’s hope he’s in form again.
Probably worth noting that if you’re going to use quotation marks LT actually said:
“a strong goalie and three blue who can do the job“
That’s a direct quote. Search for browser text on the page and you will see it.
My apologies, I thought you were paraphrasing the quote I included, but LT did use both quotes in his post today.
The team was 7th in overall SV% in 20-21 though.
They also haven’t finished in the bottom 3rd in 5v5 SV% since 19-20.
And they’ve actually been in the top half of the league in overall SV% all 4 years since Holland was hired (not including the 7 games this season).
Season,Team SV%,Rank
’23-’24,88.61,30th
’22-’23,91.43,16th
’21-’22,91.56,19th
’20-’21,91.56,19th
’19-’20,91.23,25th
’18-’19,91.52,25th
’17-’18,91.79,23th
’16-’17,92.72,7th
15-‘16,91.43,30th
AVERAGE 91.32 SV% 21.56th (bottom third)
A rank of 20.67 is bottom third for 31 teams, 21.33 is bottom third for 32 teams.
During McDavid’s career, the Oilers have provided him with goaltending that generally ranks in the bottom third 5v5. We will see where they finish this season, which could ultimately push them into the lower middle third. To characterize as bottom third is not wrong.
In analytics (and by Lowetides’ own recent blogs) 5v5 Sv% is generally what’s used to measure goaltending. Not all situations. But I do see some value in all sits measures.
“The team was 7th in overall SV% in 20-21 though.”
This was the COVID shortened season. The all sits SV% was bolstered by Mike Smith’s PK SV%. Over the 99 games Smith played with Edmonton he posted an extremely high 90.20, which depending on how you filter makes him one of the best goalies on the PK, tied with Shesterkin.
You said “Most often our goaltending measures in the bottom third of the league.“. Only 4 of 8 full seasons were bottom 3rd in 5v5 SV% and none of the past 3.
You need to use this 7 game season (8.5% of the season!) even to get to ‘more often than not’ in the bottom 3rd of the league. Likewise your averaging the ranks wouldn’t put the team in the bottom 3rd without these 7 games being weighted equally to each of the previous 8 full seasons.
So I do think the ‘bottom 3rd’ in 5v5 SV% characterization is wrong, without even getting into 5v5 vs. overall SV%.
While LT does like to use 5v5 SV% I don’t agree it’s a better measure than overall. And I don’t think it’s fair to say 5v5 SV% is generally what’s used to measure goaltending.
That the Oilers have had an all situations SV% above league average in 5 of McDavid’s 8 full seasons (and 4 of the most recent 4 full seasons) I think argues pretty strongly against a statement like “Most often our goaltending measures in the bottom third of the league“.
McDavid:
“Its feeling good, making alot of practice. Felt really good at practice. Making lots of good progress.”
“I hate missing games period, whether or not this game was played indoors or outdoors I’d be pushing for it.”.
Woody when asked about McDavid’s availability tomorrow – paraphrasing a bit:
In trainers room now but it was a good sign that he practiced. He had a good day. We’ll see. Today was a good day, it was a good step, we’ll see how he is when he waked up tomorrow.
He sounded VERY positive and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t play.
McDavid speaking next – very weird for any player to speak after the coach (acknowledging he was with the trainers after the skate but still).
Ticket sales and viewership interest.
Copponi has a primary apple as Merrimack opens the scoring.
Per Nugent-Bowman:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Foegele
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Holloway-McLeod-Brown
Erne-Janmark-Ryan
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Broberg
Kulak-Bouchard/Desharnais
Skinner
Campbell
Intel is that McDavid is taking part in all the drills at practice.
So McDavid is going to practice tonight at commonwealth stadium tonight. Hopefully it goes well and he feels good to go tomorrow. And hopefully they put him on defense.
Hat tip to Bandana Idiot on Twitter. The Oilers currently have six James Bonds on the roster. Five of the six were acquired by Holland.
I’m glad we spent a fifth round pick to acquire a 4rth line centre/RW for the AHL during a “cup or bust” year when there were players like Lafferty available.
007 club members.
Derek Ryan. Top speed 20.31. Lots of Ryan fans here. I’m not sure he has NHL boots anymore. https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/8478585
Connor Brown. While he’s a burner compared to Ryan, he’s also struggling. Top speed 20.81
Ryan McLeod. He can skate, but something’s off. Injured?
Brett Kulak. Janmark. Holloway. All 3 can skate.
Honorable mention to Erne. He’s only played 5 games.
Looks like Condors rolling out the same lineup as last night with Rodrigue getting the start.
Maybe Sammy will get called up after the game stop at home for 45 minutes then hit Commomwealth and ignite that perimeter bottom 6
Pining for Sam Gagner. Is this rock bottom?
Gagner will make Lander look like a speedster …
Rock bottom?
You must be new around here
😄
I laughed out loud, thank you.
—— I’ve been contemplating this Oilers team for the last week or so, and have reached two conclusions. ———
I have reached one conclusion. The Drafting has NOT BEEN GOOD ENOUGH. Not only does a team require draft picks to play in the NHL, they also require those picks to be impact players. One metric for success on this blog has been “200 NHL games”. I don’t know if that is good or not. Another metric was 2 picks per draft graduate to the NHL. Not sure if that is good or not either.
One thing we can look at is how many current players are on the roster, and what role do they serve.
Anton Lander played 215 NHL games. Keep in mind, he scored 10 goals during that time.
Theo Peckham played 160 NHL games. 4 goals and 13 assists.
We should look at trade value that comes back if a drafted player is traded (Reid Schafer moved out, but Ekholm is on the roster).
Let’s have a look at the current team.
Current Roster Players per draft (in brackets, # of picks that year):
2011 (9) – RNH
Klefbom (*long term injury or would still be playing)
2012 (7) – NONE
2013 (10)- NURSE
2014 (6) – DRAISATL
2015 (6) – MCDAVID, FOEGLE (Bear Trade)
2016 (9) – NONE
2017 (7) – SKINNER
2018 (5) – BOUCHARD, MCLEOD
2019 (6) – BROBERG
2020 (6) – HOLLOWAY
You be the judge. If you believe the Drafting has been good enough to supply the Oilers with a Cup Winning Roster, vote thumbs up. If you think the drafting has been subpar, down vote. or comment and let me know what you know!!!!!!!!!
I get your point, but you say this like the only way to win a Cup is with drafted talent.
VGK is a recent example of how that’s untrue, even if you count the expansion draft as drafted roster players.
There are others, some have done this analysis recently. JP or Ryan come to mind, can’t recall exactly who made the post(s).
I don’t think I said anywhere that drafting is the ONLY way to win a Cup?
But I think we all can agree it is one important part of putting a Cup Winning Team together. Even if you utilize the draft picks in trades – like Vegas.
You have to be willing to move the picks before they have no value. Or you hold them and hope the player turns out. That also brings in the importance of the Pro Scouts … and that yet again, as probably been an area of let down for Edmonton.
Well, considering that you said in your post that you reached two conclusions, and then only laid out one conclusion, it was what I inferred. Rightly or wrongly.
I actually think the drafting under ChiaPete was better than Old Dutch. I’d say both scouting departments are better than they had been previously, as low a bar as that may be. The recent acquisition then disposition of Barrie, Tyson, being a good example on the pro ledger. More, please.
Yeah drafting does need to be top tier in Edmonton. It is a team that won’t be able to consistently attract the best free agents like Boston always does. The fact that Jackson changed out the head amateur scout says he agrees with you. Hopefully the new guy is better than the last 3-4 head scouts.
I had found a link that suggested the Oilers were one of the worst drafting teams when adjusted for draft position in the NHL since the lockout.
So, it seems the Ducks of Anaheim may becoming Mighty again…their third straight win 7-4 win over the Flyers to move within 1 point of third in the Pacific.
Frank Vatrano with a hat trick…now 8 goals on the season.
You know, we really don’t care.
You should.
They play in the same division as the Oilers.
Its not that no one cares about the Ducks, its just they don’t care about what you have to bleat.
Its notable but highly questionable if it means they are becoming mighty in real time – I mean its not like they didn’t have multiple 3 game winning streaks last season – they did.
I guess they were might last season though – mighty awful.
Could not care. Maybe in March I will take a look but really don’t care. And I especially don’t care about anything you have to say. You have been pulling this BS for over a decade, I just hope you are really old.
Nice.
Mate, I think that you think that what you do is somehow relevant. It’s not. One day you will simply disappear from here, and apart from a smattering of apologists, nobody will care. I very much hope that it’s because you found something positive to pour your peculiar focus into…but regardless, you will pass like a fart in the wind, and I will miss the chaos you bring, for about 12 seconds. And that’s your entire legacy.
The NHL has a very cool new stats website with player tracking data.
Leon’s surprisingly in the 93rd percentile for top speed. He’s in the 96th for speed bursts over 20 mph. Not bad for a guy who plays more minutes than many defensemen.
https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8477934
Your post late yesterday sent me into a rabbit hole, trying to find who’s rated higher than Connor for skating.
Brayden Point is who I’ve turned up so far.
Be interesting to track this over the season.
i had the same question. Nathan Mackinnon also has a higher top speed than McDavid so far.
One thing I read mentioned that Connor is doing it with the puck, the other guys not so much
Connor McDavid: top speed (95), 22 mph+ bursts (97), 20-22 mph burst (98) and 18-20 mph burst (73).
============
Brayeden Point: top speed (99), 22 mph+ bursts (87), 20-22 mph burst (99) and 18-20 mph burst (99).
Nathan MacKinnon: top speed (98), 22 mph+ bursts (99), 20-22 mph burst (99) and 18-20 mph burst (97).
Jack Eichel: top speed (92), 22 mph+ bursts (87), 20-22 mph burst (99) and 18-20 mph burst (98).
Sidney Crosby: top speed (96), 22 mph+ bursts (95), 20-22 mph burst (90) and 18-20 mph burst (89).
Mat Barzal: top speed (95), 22 mph+ bursts (97), 20-22 mph burst (96) and 18-20 mph burst (97).
AA: top speed (98), 22 mph+ bursts (97), 20-22 mph burst (96) and 18-20 mph burst (63).
Leon Draisaitl: top speed (93), 22 mph+ bursts (87), 20-22 mph burst (96) and 18-20 mph burst (76).
Dylan Larkin: top speed (63), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (98) and 18-20 mph burst (99).
============
So, like most raw data, the parsing of the information is going to be the important part.
What a player does with the puck at speed, where he chooses to arrive and when, how it impacts the play at different game states, those are going to be the bits that lend context to the numbers.
Zach Hyman: top speed (95), 22 mph+ bursts (87), 20-22 mph burst (96) and 18-20 mph burst (73).
Ryan McLeod: top speed (79), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (98) and 18-20 mph burst (93).
Philip Broberg: top speed (89), 22 mph+ bursts (87), 20-22 mph burst (below 50th) and 18-20 mph burst (below 50th).
Warren Foegele: top speed (57), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (95) and 18-20 mph burst (88).
Dylan Holloway: top speed (76), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (85) and 18-20 mph burst (86).
Mattias Janmark: top speed (82), 22 mph+ bursts (86), 20-22 mph burst (84) and 18-20 mph burst (64).
Brett Kulak: top speed (73), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (53) and 18-20 mph burst (54).
RNH: top speed (67), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (73) and 18-20 mph burst (79).
How dare you leave out Conner Brown!
Even before his last game, McDavid was noticeably, well, not McDavid – in addition to consistently turning over the puck in the middle of the ice, it was rare to see him wind up with any sort of space/time/clean air.
Take a look at Martin Fehervary.
Ive seen a couple of reports that he’s the best skater in the league.
Source(s)?
Per NHL.com, league-wide percentile in brackets:
Martin Fehervary: top speed (80), 22 mph+ bursts (below 50th), 20-22 mph burst (80), and 18-20 mph burst (below 50th).
Leon’s long been criticized, unfairly, for his skating.
When he put up Hall-esque numbers in the team’s fastest skater competition you’d think that would have put those notions to rest. Yet people still call him slow.
Hopefully some hard data like this will help dispel that notion in the future.
Lucic was 3rd or something in the skills comp one year. Leon has speed, it’s just he needs a run way to get up to it. He’s not agile or explosive, he’s a heavy guy with a heavy stride, but has top shelf puck protection skills, which I’m sure he developed because he is an awkward skater and he must dominate
It was a concern in his draft year from many places I read then. Of course doesn’t matter now
Looking for answers in the AHL sure sounds a lot like the DoD Oilers.
Not necessarily disagreeing that callups might be warranted, but they’re not going to save us. We have the talent on the roster to save us.
Some fresh blood might just be what the doctor ordered.
Kostin injected some much needed swagger last year, for example.
Remember when people were begging for Holloway to be called up in the Winnipeg series. I’m still trying to figure out what his accomplishments are.
Holloway has never been given a regular spot with regular minutes with regular linemates. From the NCAA, we know the offense comes slowly over time. Know your player. Woodcroft doesn’t appear to.
Woodcroft extends the leash for washed up veterans, and is brutally hard on the reins for prospects. Pretty much the opposite of what is required. Washed up veterans should be on short leashs, and prospects be given room to find their game.
Bugs me when the rookie has more speed and game than the mistake making no impact vet they just have to have
Meanwhile I get to read how Vegas focuses more on shot quality than volume and has good finishers etc. The issue is the org talking about keeping contending over time, and at the same time talking about go time and all in, and Woody doesn’t want to take chances, deer in the headlights it seems now. No time to develop player in season
Just stop bloody talking and develop the best players you can and always use the talent that you have, and teach them to do what is needed. It’s not all one way or one thing, it’s everything you can do to be a better team, including moving popular players if need be
The last 2 cup winners do that. They Kniggits even have a waivers player on their roster that helps them or he’d be gone
Spot on
Winnipeg series? Presumably you mean Bouchard?
Not seeing any evidence that Adam Erne has been placed on waivers – another choice.
Has there been any intel from Chaulk about Gags or Ralph in BAK?
Got to be something behind the decision to keep Erne up that we’re not privy to…
Chaulk goes on Oilers Now on Monday’s. This past Monday he let us know that Gagner had arrived, practiced and was set to play and, when asked about Lavoie, he spoke about him looking to shoot and take the puck to the net – all positive (and that was before a couple good games from Lavoie this week – 8 shots on goal last night and he broke his stick twice, would have had a couple of more).
All I know about Erne is that, someone on here mentioned that, when DNB was on with LT, there is intel that Erne will not be waived as his family has set-up in Edmonton – I refuse to believe that as anything more than hearsay!
Thanks for the info.
Last year the team had 109 points and that included 3 different stretches where they went 2-5, 2-5 and 1-5. Their current stretch is 1-5-1.
Obviously they need to turn it around RFN but this isn’t exactly out of character for this team.
Nor the fanbase…
The reaction to the 1-51 is why players generally don’t want to play in Canada though. 😛
Try as we might, we can’t boo a team into success.
I still think this team is turning things around.
Are you suggesting apathy? This will not happen in Oiler Country at least not until the old guard dies.
I mean, I get this argument BUT they aren’t just losing. This team has been getting absolutely pumped in their most recent losses……
Captain’s skate 2 weeks before. Pain of the loss to Vegas, the rhetoric of we’ve learned from this loss. Oilers are a true contender now. Well, at least for a 1st overall pick. This isn’t a team unified and certainly not one that is willing to compete like the Knights or Avs. I don’t think they can recover from this horrid start especially if injuries persist. Without McDavid, this is just a basement team after all these years. Sad really.
Our 100 point players are having serious issues generating 5v5 scoring without Mcdavid is definitely a problem
some of these contracts handed out are seriously mind boggling Nurse, Brown, Soup, Kane
You are correct. and when you combine that with:
RYAN – 0 PTS
BROWN – 0 PTS
ERNE – 0 PTS
JANMARK – 0 PTS
MCLEOD – 0 PTS
HOLLOWAY – 0 PTS
So the Top of the Lineup is struggling. and the bottom can’t sniff, not only a Goal – they can’t sniff an assist!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Mantra since McDavid arrived has been to build the lineup depth and have 4 Solid Lines. This squad may be no further ahead than the 2016 team ……..
9 years and counting ……
The Brown one is easy to get out from.
It’s both easy and horribly out of character for the GM
so actually not easy
Is it too much to ask that a guy who is trying to put his game together again do so in Bakersfield? He has over 70 NHL games yet to play 3 more NHL games. I don’t think it’s asking too much. Not to mention he is dog crap right now. Should be embarrassed that he is actually playing NHL games.
If he’s going to get those 3 more NHL games then why waive him and send him to Bakersfield?
If you agree that the bonus will be hit, well, there is noone on the Condors that will replace Brown and make the team better.
If the bonus isn’t going to be avoided (and its not), he might as well stay on the roster – the team doesn’t get better right now by moving him off the roster for a Condor.
In no world does Connor Brown get waived and Adam Erne stay in the lineup for the same cap hit.
Connor Brown was going to take time in the NHL to get back his full game – time being a couple of months, not a couple of games.
This process was known and they aren’t burying the guy for 73 games.
No Holland wouldn’t do it.
Brown has really slow boots.
https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8477015
Some of what you say is very accurate, it’s frustrating that the team is struggling to score 5v5.
What I am not aligned with is the following:
Nurse- I was never a fan of what the contract was going to be even a year before it was signed but Holland was stuck between a Rock and a Hard Place, Klefbom’s career ending injury, having no one remotely close to take over for him outside of Nurse and unfortunately for Holland right as he signing Nurse the contracts exploded.
Kane- Kane was effective from the day he joined the team till he had his wrist cut from a freak accident. He may get back to that point but discounting the fact that a NHL sniper had his wrist sliced part way into his contract and then calling that a bad contract is not a fair assessment.
Campbell- This was definitely a risk, my major issue with blaming Holland on this one is that Campbell’s starters numbers in Toronto were average or better, and for a number of years it is hard to argue that Toronto’s defence was much better if better at all than Edmontons.
Brown- This was a hard contract for me to swallow because I hate any contract that defers salary to the following season or buy out.
Agreed, except on the points about Nurse’s contract.
Kenny could have extended when he arrived at a value deal for 7 or 8 years. Similar to what ChiaPete did with Klefbom. Only with more NHL evidence to base the decision on. He could also have chosen to wait a year to broker the extension, instead of doing so on the back of a career year.
I personally didn’t want to sign Nurse to 7 million at the time and would say trade him.
Everyone seemed to be perplexed by my outlook on it.
I definitely will not argue he is somewhat over paid but then again every single GM makes a bad decision at times, the goal is to make the least amount of them ultimately.
Lastly, I guess the argument could be made what if he won the Norris or lead the Oilers to the cup the following year and what would have his salary been then. He had just proven he has the ability to do so when things go right and people are right when they say Nurse improved every year till basically the year he signed his contract.
Doesnt help the stagnant salary cap from the pandemic that everyone had to deal with.
Kassians contract and a few of the ones that carried over from Chia to me are the ones that really bit the Oilers.
The play at the time was to not extend Koskinen until Nurse was made whole. That was a grade A failure with ripple effects still being felt to this day. Koskinen was an alright goalie who was played, and paid, too much. His stats in the KHL prior to coming to the NHL were nearly identical with Pavel Francouz, which should have resulted in a contract in that ballpark. Alas, it was not to be.
Holland signed the Kassian contract.
Sekeres and Neal were also unforced errors that impacted future roster construction.
The Sekera contract was not an error – it turned out badly because an injury turned him from a low end top pairing/high end 2nd pairing d-man in his prime to a replacement level player (after the better part of two years on LTIR).
Sekera was proving to be full value for that contract until the injury
Neal was not an error – it was an anchor contract in substitution for the Lucic anchor and, not only did that contract need to go, but the person needed to be out of the dressing room.
Nurse- I was never a fan of what the contract was going to be even a year before it was signed but Holland was stuck between a Rock and a Hard Place,
Holland could have waited half a season until it was clear that Nurse’s shooting percentage would not stay about 10%, as it had been the previous season. Half a season until it was apparent that Jones/Werenski were an overpay.
Players do sign contracts in-season. Look at the massive discount that Pastrnak took in March, during a season when he would score 62 goals. Bruins GM didn’t blink. So far this year, the Bruins are undefeated in regulation even without Bergeron and Krejci.
With respect, here’s how I see it:
Nurse – disagree, Kenny had another option – trade Nurse if he wouldn’t agree to a reasonable term and number. And I don’t subscribe to the notion that McDavid and Drai would walk if their friend is traded. They are professionals, and we don’t know how they think one way or another.
Kane – It was foolish to give that much term to a player who plays a physical style who is over 30 years old.
Campbell – Agreed, I think it was obvious Campbell was a huge risk – Toronto media talked constantly about his weak mental game and how he gets down on himself, this was a known thing. His resume was underwhelming and not deserving of a big investment.
Brown – Just dumb signing with the bonus structure. Would have been good as a show me deal, but I guess Oilers are content to give McDavid’s friend the bag even coming off a significant injury.
Just F tier level management.
First of all, I was never in favour of the Campbell signing.
But the TOR market is notoriously hard on goalies. Even Cujo couldn’t rescue that franchise. Perfect recent example is Andersen. Great numbers in ANA, traded to TOR, fades under the increased pressure and workload, then rebounds in CAR.
Is it his noggin, or the market?
To what do you attribute Campbell turning into a pumpkin in Edmonton then?
Will need to see how this year plays out before I render a verdict on that one, councillor.
Sample sizes, and all.
They are slow adapting to the D zone and integrating it with the O and N systems they were already used to
Add to that the best D is recovering and only 2 of them are consistently good outletters….
Everybody is out of synch
This start is so perplexing. What I think is happening is Holland’s view that his D group was good enough was wrong, and because they have two top 6 F recovering from major injury it’s been exposed
Add McDavid missing and Ekholm recovering and not able to carry the weight he did last season, it’s hard to pull out of the ditch
For an offensive team with two world top forwards, I don’t see having only 2 plus puck movers backend is a good thing. Des is poor, Ceci not great, Kulak sometimes good, Nurse erratic and more a skate it out like Bro
Des and Ceci are also not quick skaters or very mobile. Being ‘long’ is good and I prefer that in a D, but not before skating and passing skills. Or game sense and assertiveness. You can carry a Bouch because he has plus passing and shooting, but only one fella that needs shelter at times ideally, the rest can play the whole game in their slot
What I would like to know is specifically what would have you done? Like what players would you have gone after and what trades with those players to make it happen?
I try and figure it out personally quite a bit on capfriendly and there isn’t a ton I can workout for specific players, cap hit working for both teams, being able to offer another team what they need to be able to get the specific players.
I think it becomes very easy as us as fans to be like “We need better defencemen, Holland should have upgraded!” But the reality of it, is no one is giving away players that are consistently better than what you have and taking back the players you don’t necessarily want.
In the period of a few months, the cap strapped Canucks added:
Filip Hronek
Carson Soucy
Ian Cole
Mark Friedman
Akito Hirose
Matt Irwin
Cole McWard
The top 4 on the list are playing NHL games and the others have added AHL depth.
Saying D are not available is a cop out.
A baby is born, crying out for attention.
I would have traded Desharnais for Sam Lafferty, if that was indeed on the table as speculated.
I am FAR from a structure/systems guy so will have to defer to those that actually look and analyze that type of detail but, with all the talk about how bad the Oilers have been defending the rush, it really seems like it starts in the neutral zone where the defensemen are giving up huge gaps, allowing entry and plays to be made and there is little back pressure coming from the forwards.
Is this part of their “structure change” from last season?
I recall when Woody and Manson first took over and the initial emphasis was on “5 man units” and forwards coming back hard in the neutral zone to allow the d-man to gap up easier. It seems like its almost the opposite now, no?
Does this line up with what smarter people than me are seeing?
Whatever the system the team plays it consists of a 5 man unit unless they’re shorthanded or on a 6 vs 5.
Every player on the ice has a role to play. If they don’t execute, or are out of sync , problems arise.
The defensemen are not standing up because the forwards are not getting back in time. Forwards lollygagging never ends. Playing zone D, requires the forwards to backtrack even harder than with man to man.
The Oilers were weak on the backtrack even before switching from man to zone.
I think abandoning the new system at this point would be a mistake. The players need to step up and make it happen. We don’t need to win the conference. We need to make the playoffs as the best version of ourselves.
The system is the same as Boston’s, I’d argue our goaltending and Bouchard will be better off if we can make this work.
This is a gamble in the sense of can our players adopt and execute, but I think the ceiling is higher if they can. And unless Holland can swing a trade for a legit starter, it might be our only way to coax a flawed roster to a Stanley Cup.
That’s the problem, the system doesn’t work with so many flawed players on the roster. Oilers have too many one-dimensional players for it to work especially when the goalies are struggling.
Remember Rickythebear? He had mentioned this for years and people were tuning him out saying that “this is modern hockey” and such. Well turns out that with more of those player types, zone defence just doesn’t work properly.
Yes it’s too late to abandon said system as they’ve been training with it since the beginning of training camp, and sound a 180 at this point would likely take just as long to get the previous system back to normal.
I stand firm that the previous system was not the problem. Injuries, deployment, and execution were (along with a terribly timed goalie slump).
THIS.
You can’t wait forever for the system to work, but you can wait longer than seven games at the start of the season.
Also, it creates a hunger throughout the regular season, knowing that you can’t just coast, having to catch up in the standings against other teams.
The Erne for Pederson swap has seemed like a no-brainer since the moment it was known that McDavid was going to miss some time.
I don’t get it and I refuse to believe that the team is keeping a below-replacement level player, that is brand new to the org, on the roster because of his family.
At this point, Derek Ryan is a 13F and not an every day NHL player.
I can certainly make a case for Bourgault, Lavoie and Pederson over Erne, Janmark and Ryan but (1) Janmark has been fine this season, he just shouldn’t be in the top six, ever and (2) maybe Bourgault can bring something but I also think his future is best served by playing at least a few months in the AHL.
Pederson over Erne is a no-brainer.
Lavoie over Ryan definitely has merit but we go back to Holland’s words about 2 weeks ago when the team doesn’t have time for “growing pains” – maybe one day he’ll acknowledge that the veteran tweeners and regressing players he has in the lineup are making mistakes and don’t have the upside!
I think now they have time for growing pains.
They should, they really seriously should.
What is a “13F”?
Signed, Oilers fans
Gagner will be called up after 1 more. AHL to get in game shape.
I’ll be looking forward to seeing how Gagner plays tonight in the back end of back to backs (no travel though).
Ken Holland’s patience will be the downfall of this team. Recall that when Mike Smith was injured for a lengthy period and Koskinen was struggling mightily, Holland did nothing at all. Ultimately, some say his gamble paid off that year, as the Oilers made the WCF. But Smith was inconsistent in the playoffs, and did not play well in the Colorado WCF (in some very close games).
Similarly, last year Jack Campbell collapsed and essentially made himself unplayable to coach Woodcroft heading into the playoffs. Once again, the Oilers gambled on their goaltending by relying on a rookie goaltender, and once again, their goaltending via Skinner was poor in the playoffs (Skinner 3.68 GAA; .883 SV%). Who knows what would have happened if Kenny addressed his goaltending properly in any of the years he has been here?
This is not to say everything is on goaltending, obviously not. This team’s defensive woes are well documented. But in my opinion, this team as constructed NEEDS strong goaltending to ever go anywhere. Defensive breakdowns will always happen, which is why goalie is the most important position in hockey.
So my conclusion is that Ken Holland will likely do nothing at all to address this slump. Rather, he will wait for the team to “come around”. But it may be too late by the time that happens.
Very true on the tending end. We probably beat Vegas last year with average or slightly better tending in that series. And then who knows? It is still this team’s biggest need. A big save fires up the players and letting in either a weak one or too many deflates the players. 2016/17 Talbot right now would be perfect.
I have some of the same sentiments that you do, the issue I have is this.
Who is the goalie that you get to address the goaltending that you are 100% sure that is an upgrade in the long run and is available?
To me there are a limited number of goalies that you can guarantee are better.
Shesterkin
Hellebuyck
Oettinger
Saros
Demko
Sorokin
Vasilevskiy
(Above our goalies but not at the level above)
Anderson
Markstrom
Darcy Kuemper
Personally to me the top 7 are untouchable to their teams, the bottom 3, only maybe, just maybe, Washington might trade Kuemper but including this year 3 of his last 4 seasons haven’t been spectacular so it’s not a guarantee either.
You might have someone else on your list but I was looking at Goalies I 100% believe are better than what the Oilers have and not another “maybe” better than what the Oilers have.
What would be the trade that you’d make that 1) would be beneficial for the other team to give up their goalie? 2) would legit be a bit enough improvement that it would be worth it? 3) The cap hit works for both teams?
If you trade Brown, do you still have to pay his bonus? Or would that be paid by the receiving team? Or would you have to trade home before his bonus kicks in? Brown or Foegele and 3rd round pick ’25 for Dumba with 50% retained. South at D is more important than forward especially when Lavoie and Pedersen should be getting a chance at this point. Just spitballin’. That said, I think they could also be patient with Brown and he’ll penalty live up to expectations. Thoughts?
IIRC you have to trade him before the bonus kicks in to not pay any. I’d rather Kulak in that deal than Foegele, but like the concept.
Waiting for Speeds to confirm…
I get that. But an injury on D and we’ll wish we still had Kulak. I think we could survive a few forward injuries as I think Lavoie, Pedersen, and maybe even Bourgault toward the end of the season will be ready to step in for the few minutes the bottom 3 get on forward, where they’re literally not the least line of defense.
The contract bonuses are paid by the team who has the player under contract at the time when said player hits said bonuses.
So atm, he’s effectively untradable unless he throws up some gnarly points in the next 2 games. Of which then you might think twice on trading him at all.
what a conundrum.
he needed to be sent down to the minors to get his game back after the 4th/5th game to condition himself back into NHL shape. If they haven’t done it by now, it won’t happen.
I give Ekholm a pass until November. He probably isn’t right physically, but he is still better then any alternative.
Broberg with Ekholm is better 5 v 5 then Bouchard. Let Bouch stay 3rd pair and focus on the PP.
Lavoie up instead of Erne is a no Brainer. But that’s a small change so not enough.
Trade? All I see is the same core for last 5 years and they are crumbling under the preasurer of expectations.
Funny but a guy like Pat Maroon is needed. Good in the room. Cup champ. Is missed. Heck, how much do we miss Devin Shore. Keeping it light in the room. There is a locker room issue. It’s the no fun team. And right now they need to lighten up and play.
For sure on Ekholm. There has to be some concern that he won’t be right all season, but no need for us fans to worry about that now. It’s a shame there is no right D that can help provide cover while Ekholm gets up to speed.
The best D pair in the league?
https://sportsnet.ca/
Small sample size.
Yes.
But a snapshot of excellence.
101 minutes
53% shots
56% xGoals
100% goals
A snapshot of exemplary luck.
But, prorated over an entire season…
Holland loves ex wings and of all the ones he didn’t try and get I think Hronek was a miss. I thought he would make a fantastic partner for Nurse, and is right age range.
his cap was likely too high to squeeze onto this roster.
Yet creative GMs always find a way to make room.
Depends on what you value. Depth is good, but a proper top 4 is better. And depth can be acquired inexpensively if you know what to look for
Hronek is 1.15M more than Ceci. Not insurmountable if you think Hronek is better
What is insurmountable is the fact that he plays, & polays well, for a division rival.
Unless the criticism here is that somehow Holland should have acquired both Ekholm & Hronek at last year’s deadline?
That’s what I’m saying, Ceci struggled and that would have solidified the d for this year, given Nurse a legit stable partner. Who know what that would have done in playoffs.
You cannot waste a playoff run with McDavid and Leon. Just like in 2016 not pushing enough chips in who knows how far that team could have gone if they picked up more than Desharnais.
I’ve watched team with no cap space change over rosters, if winning is what matters you do whatever it takes. Solidify the top 4 and work in young guys in bottom pairing.
The Oilers are in no man’s land right now because they’re not playing their prospects enough for them to play value in themselves and they’re holding on to them too long with them not playing after and are dying on the vine.
Vegas does it complete opposite way where they trade them before they lose any value. But they also have a market in which they can acquire any player for free agent so it’s different they’re really using their city and tax an advantage.
Would you have given a 1st and 2nd rounder for him? Cause that’s what Vancouver gave up. Also they traded for him before we got Ekholm. Last year Ekholm looked all world elite after we got him and Hronek was just an above average 2-way (mostly offensive) dman at that time. Would you have rather traded for Ekholm or Hronek? Remember we used our 1st rounder in the Ekholm trade.
Hronek = No Ekholm.
yes Hronek is looking elite right now paired with an Elite offensive Dman in Hughes (spits), but he wasn’t elite when they got him. Hind-sight is 20-20.
Hronek was nursing an injury when acquired and got shut down early.
The Canucks we’re looking ahead to this season and it’s paid off in spades thus far.
The Oilers actually paid TWO firsts (Reid Shaefer) and Tyson Barrie for Ekholm.
He actually had pretty good numbers for the team he was on. He a better skater, passer and shooter than Ceci. I’m sure thereight be better fits but he would have helped a ton imo.
Where this team is right now they need to find and acquire fits like Tampa learned to do.im hoping 2J a d Parketti help in that
One of the biggest issue is that the October Ekholm has not been the April Ekholm.
That is mainly because ’23 Bouchard has not been 2nd half ’22 Bouchard.
One defenseman playing horribly who keeps being thrown over the boards onto the ice can break a lot of things on a hockey team.
The coach’s TOI deployment mistake is egregious because he has options available on D.
It’s hard to know what to make of this Oilers team. But in hindsight, there were 2 management mistakes this summer that were pointed out by some here.
1. Connor Brown signing.
The Oilers simply didn’t have the cap room to add a 4 million dollar winger. And yes, he will cost 4 million dollars against the cap. Doesn’t matter what year it happens.
I think Brown will be fine, and may even live up to the contract, it’s just that the Oilers can’t afford him.
2. If the Oilers were going to sign Brown, they needed to trade Foegele or Kulak for the cap room to run a 22 man roster. Holland left Woodcroft with zero wiggle room here. Hard to make any adjustments when you can’t move anyone in or out of the lineup.
I would have traded Foegele, because I think it’s more important to have the depth on defense. However, if the organization insists on Broberg staying with the big club, then a Kulak trade seems like the best way of getting Broberg the minutes he needs.
I would have upgraded Ceci with Hronek and moved Kulak for cap space and lock Broberg into 3rd pairing. It’s a risk because I do like Kulak in playoffs but I feel a stronger Nurse pairing will make up for that and Broberg gets to grow.
Nurse Hronek
Ekholm Bouchard
Broberg Ceci
Vinny
Interesting that you identified Hronek as a target.
I just posted a Sportsnet article that outlines how Hughes-Hronek may be the best D pair in the league right now.
They have not been on the ice for a 5v5 goal this season with Hughes leading the league with a +8 so far this season.
I saw that headline but didn’t read the article. Pretty rich to say they might be the best D pair in the league given the limited sample size.
You should read the article.
What would you have acquired Hronek with?
I agree but would have upgraded Ceci as well. His best game is just not making mistakes. The looks at him by Sid and everyone else says he is weak in every department except sometimes D zone defensive play. But when you can’t pass and stop entries you have to be because you are defending more
LT: Bravo. All I can say is Godspeed. There are answers in the Bake. Stop your dithering Dutch.
Our team has way to many passive players including the Coach. I give Kane credit he’s trying his best to get some emotion going. Most of the team looks scared of making a mistake Woody is micro managing them. I would tell the boys keep it simple have fun and let it rip. If we lose so be it I’ll deal with the fallout no backstabbing I believe in you as a team.
Was at the Rangers game on Thursday and Kane was one of the few players that appeared to be trying to create some positive momentum. I think the effort was there from the other players, but yeah most play awfully passive. A big hit or a fight sometimes works in jolting the team out of this sort of malaise (see Kostin last year in the LA game).