Sam Gagner is back and I’m here for it. I have suggested recently that the perfect Oilers story for this century would be the team winning Stanley with Gagner as an an active player. I believe Raphael Lavoie would have been the better option, but Gagner has played well and could provide an offensive spark.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Will Edmonton Oilers redeem themselves after baffling October?
- Lowetide: Can the Edmonton Oilers make room for Raphael Lavoie?
- DNB: Oilers rewarded for their season’s most complete game in Heritage Classic win
- Lowetide: Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is spiking in an important area
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ injuries already a major story in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
SAME OLD, DIFFERENT PILE?
I see people discounting the Gagner signing and recall, comparing it to Adam Ernie’s signing. I think it’s important to give Gagner his due here. He’s just a much better hockey player than Erne at this point in time.
- Gagner: (five-on-five) 10:14 per game; 1.52 pts-60; 2.46 HDSC-60; 7.3 shots-60; +2.5 Corsi rel Pct.
- Erne: (five-on-five) 11:28 per game; 1.2 pts-60; 2.73 HDSC-60; 5.5 shots-60; -8.6 Corsi rel Pct.
Gagner has a better resume and should be more involved in the flow of play. I’m not saying the puck won’t die on his stick, he isn’t a fast train and there are more physical players (many more) in the league. Gagner has a high skill set and has learned to maneuver in the modern NHL. He should help more than Erne.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
The Oilers passed on recalling Raphael Lavoie and I believe it’s a mistake based on flawed thinking. The argument against recall is that he won’t play enough in the NHL to warrant his stalled development. If he were 20, 21 or even 22 I’d buy it. Lavoie is 23. His development is complete and now it’s time for him to learn the NHL.
Where can he help? Shot volume on the third and fourth lines. He is averaging 3.2 shots per game in the AHL over the last two seasons, with a shooting percentage of 13.7 in Bakersfield.
Dylan Holloway averaged 2.6 shots-game and a 12.8 shooting percentage with the Condors. In the NHL, he is delivering .90 shots per game and a 5.4 shooting percentage. It’s my guess that Lavoie will be more dynamic as a shooter. Holloway still has time, but we’re talking 600 NHL minutes and three goals from a fleet forward.
I believe Lavoie will force the issue, and see a recall. I’m not sure the Oilers believe in him. Complete unknown at this point. Hell boys, Tyler Benson got NHL time!
Sports 1440 at noon today, we’ll chat with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. The Oilers are playing a game tomorrow night but the Gagner move has everyone talking. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
The Ducks win their 5th in a row 4-3 over Arizona.
Troy Terry with 3G 1A.
Oh and Colorado beats the Blues 4-2.
The rich get richer as Dallas beats the Flames 4-3.
Calgary played very well outshooting the Stars by a wide margin.
Connor Zary scored in his NHL debut and had 6 SOG.
Dallas now 6-1-1.
Summarizing!
Day won his fifth game in his last six starts, stopping 21 of 24 in a 6-3 win.
Prospecting takes a break until Friday.
Day also makes the OHL Save of the Night, robbing Jets’ 1st-rounder Colby Barlow.
Okay, it’s early, but I can’t help it.
HH was one of the more charitable here towards Dursi. Even he thought a second rounder was pretty fair return. Others decried that he was a total liability on the ice.
My Sean Durzi tracker has him at 8 gp, 4 goals. 3 assists. +7. 22:54 per game.
Connor Ingram. 4 gp. .914
If the Oilers need a professional scout for buy-low candidates, I’m here.
Yeah but I know how to spell Durzi’s name.🤓
LA had to clear space and, rightly, assumed Jordan Spence could replace Durzi who wouldn’t be getting anywhere near that ice time with them.
Always liked Durzi…good for him.
As long as he’s not an Oiler, hairball always has a hard on…..
This summer, I had argued that the Coyotes had fleeced the Kings in the Durzi trade.
Either here or comments at the Athletic, most people agreed that it was addition by subtraction for the Kings. HH had suggested that a second was a fair return was more charitable than anyone else.
Here’s a typical comment:
I saw Durzi as a bit of a Vince Dunn type ready to have a breakout season.
Now it’s early, but if you acquire a top pairing, Right shot d who just turned 25, $1.7m cap for a second round pick, that’s a hell of a fleecing.
My comment:
Spence has a cap hit of only $820K, half that of Durzi, and LA was cap strapped.
Pretty sure that was a consideration.
Cap considerations don’t mitigate the fact that it was still a poorly managed asset.
Blake Jultzed Durzi out of town. 🙂
Do you think Sakic would have managed the asset like that?
Who would have paid more?
I doubt anyone would have done a 1st round pick.
That’s sort of like saying would Sakic have gotten more selling his 911 with a cracked windshield, curb rashed rims, ripped soft top, oil leak, and rusted muffler in January in Canada, because he was broke and had to pay his rent? No, he wouldn’t have, but…
The correct answer is Sakic wouldn’t sell the car in that condition at that time of year.
He would have kept the car until he had all repairs completed and sold it in the spring when people wanted to buy a convertible.
Blake didn’t have that luxury.
He needed the cap space to sign a goaltender and he had 6RD.
I suppose he could have declined to acquire PLD but with Spence and Clarke as potential replacements he obviously thought he had sufficient coverage at the position.
As it turns out, Spence is playing very well.
GF 58.33%
Looking back at the trade tree that brought Durzi to LA…it was a first rounder, Durzi and Carl Grundstrom for Jake Muzzin
Grundstrom is a bottom 6 winger for the Kings.
The Kings drafted Tobias Bjornfot with the first they acquired from Toronto.
This thread is gold.
Now go and look at what Blake gave up and then paid for Dubois.
Blake got taken to the woodshed in every single deal.
5-2-2 record…highest scoring team in the league.
Nice woodshed.
One game over fake 500 bud.
Iaffolo playing the same minutes as PLD, at half the price haha.
Blake traded an equal winger plus the first two first round picks he made as GM PLUS a 2nd, for a problem child 3rd liner.
TMac knows he’s got a lemon that’s why he’s sheltering him with 70%OZ Starts.
$8.5 million for a 3rd liner haha
A .667 win percentage gets you in the playoffs any season.
I posted this yesterday. Tkachuk’s player card.
If you grew up playing hockey and you were told that you had to be able to skate fast or even hard to make it to the NHL, you were lied to. 🙂
Tkachuk’s top speed is a mile and a half per hour below… league average.
20 mph speed bursts almost none. 22 mph speed bursts actually none.
Crazy that such a slow indolent player was top 10 in scoring last season. He was a beast during the playoffs too.
Look at his shot locations… mostly from the home-plate.
Phil Esposito could barely skate.
I don’t watch Chucky much. How do they manage his slow boots? Offensive zone starts? Paired with a fast transition player?
Sorry, I don’t watch Florida much either.
Perhaps the Professor who lives there and wishes death on me could chime in,
Nobody wishes death upon you, just some humility and dual back the over the top anti‐Oiler rhetoric for the sole sake of anti-Oiler rhetoric… this franchise legitimately makes enough poor decisions for you to make educated and reasonable jabs, but you just take things too far and I’m not sure if you like being embarrassed or have no idea how embarrassing some of the things you do, are.
I personally welcome outside opinions, and counter arguments…I actually think it’s necessary for growth, and you do actually offer alot of value and perspective to this community, which I appreciate…I just can’t for the life of me figure out why you keep having over the top ridiculous takes on things which I feel you should be above, but you just can’t.
This is not your granpa’s NHL buddy.
I have never seen someone who changes their line based on just being opposite George. For someone who states time after friggin’ time how the NHL has changed to come out with this just shows you have nothing.
It’s a great point. Fans love speed, but it’s only one small part of the equation. If it was just speed, JF Jacques would have actually had a career, Kassian would still be playing (on a top line), and Todd Marchant would have scored 700.
The list of slow players with great hockey IQ is probably longer than speed demons. Luc Robitaille was one of the most memorable for me.
Yeah Chucky does have the hockey IQ along with the willingness to absorb an incredible amount of punishment that you need to have to score from the home-plate area.
They still obsess in evaluations over “good skaters”. Which actually means “fast skaters”. Whether they can play hockey or not and whether they have technical skills and athleticism or not.
Good technical skaters are great because their edges and balance are the gateway to hockey skills whether you’re fast or not…pure speed on the other hand fools all kinds of “hockey people”.
The kids on my team this year have very quickly learned hockey is not a race from one end to the other and why. Evaluators and others still need to be taught this.
LT stole my thunder…..Lavoie’s next birthday will be his 24th.
PR crew needs new talking notes.
Worse, this player earned a shot at the NHL in training camp. Full stop.
( playing with anvils)
Interesting that the Oilers 4th round pick from that draft, Matej Blumel and Lavoie have almost identical stats.
45 points for Lavoie in the AHL last season…Blumel 44.
This season 7-7 although Blumel has played two more games.
Blumel does have 6 NHL games and 1 goal on his resume.
Lavoie was recovering from a serious injury and missed training camp at the start of last season.
Erne cleared waivers – what a relief!
get a life
That’s an odd response.
I hope your day gets better.
Maybe they’ll zoom Lavoie by playing Erne with him.
Don’t worry about it OP. Kenny’s burner account OP…..Lavoie winning AHL player of the week, stings.
Wow, that’s surprising.
and surprise; whodda thunk
For cryin’ out loud. The guy is trying to make a living to the best of his abilities. Which I might add are far superior to any person writing on this forum. I will bet everything I own on that.
Neither he, nor his family, should be subject to the ridicule and sarcasm put forth here daily. What has happened to us as human beings?
and he will still make more money than most playing in Bakersfield.
Erne is reading this thread right now like:
LOL – please.
This is getting a little harsh OP. Imagine if he read this blog.
That’s doubtful though. I’m just being a sensitive old guy. Carry on.
I hope he reads it and I hope Connor Brown reads it. If they care about their legacy sometimes they have to do what’s right and not just profitable.
Please see Mike Smith and Duncan Keith
He might read this blog and if he does?
What if he reads Oilers’ Twitter, what if he listens to the various Oilers podcasts and the various other content and 1440 and EST?
This post was so tame compared to so much that is out there on various platforms.
Prospectial!
Nathan Day gets the spotlight this eve. Since his opening trio of games where he couldn’t keep the puck out of the Flint net, he has put up a respectable 3.15 GAA spanning his seven games since.
The redemption tour continues in the Sound of Owen @ 5 p.m. Paddle Prairie time.
Wingers are at the mercy of the quality of their C. The bottom 6 would be better if they had better centres. There isn’t even a 4C a lot of the time
Holloway isn’t going to be a top end producer most likely. Which is fine, even if not ideal. Vegas top 6 F averaged 71 GP and 56 points overall last reg season. Quality of play is more important than output. Outscoring vs high scoring. Holloway will have a tough time getting his offense going as the team is constructed I think, unless he gets consistent top 6 time. I think he can be a 30-50 point player very reasonably, that helps outscore and puts pressure on the opponent. I like players like that and think they are key to Cups
McLeod is a useful C, but he is not a talented offensive player. He has skill, but I see his nature as not being aggressive enough – offensive players are aggressive by nature, you need drive to score on a consistent basis, you have to hunger for it. Playing defensively is a different mindset that I see him as possessing more at this point. The rarest player is the high end two way type, the guys that can do it all
So the wingers are in a tough spot in the bottom 6. I think they should have focused in the summer getting a more rounded C for the bottom 6 and perhaps giving up a winger, and used Mcleod at what he is good at right now, which is a more defensive oriented role, even against good comp. Essentially anchoring a checking/forechecking line that you hopes pops a few, but aren’t relying on it
Although I think that when a group plays well throughout, everyone sees more offense. I think the team would be stronger and scoring more balanced. And run 4 freakin’ lines like is best. I would have spent money at C first
Connor, Drai/Nuge, X, Mcleod
I think Connor and Leon would have more pop per shift if they played less, because they had more energy. And hunger knowing each shift mattered just that little bit more. And the whole roster would be more engaged. And if a C got hurt Mcleod moving to 3C isn’t too big a hit
Maybe Kenny plans to get that better 3C at the deadline. I don’t see why doing it in the summer isn’t a better plan. Parachuting players in usually doesn’t work as well as it did with Ekholm. Especially into a team that isn’t already dialed in (in large part because of the lack of actual centre depth), like Barbashev joining the Knights and playing better than ever
This deadline the Oilers will have the cash to add a quality center which is nice. Oilers bottom sixers aren’t going to go 0fer on the season though. They should get on a roll at some point.
Where do you see the money at deadline time. 400k space right now so a million dollar contract ish.
Cap Friendly has the Oilers with $1.7 million at the deadline but unlikely you get a quality centre for that.
The 1.7 also is assuming no trades or ltir.
With retention that becomes a possible 3.4. It is enough for 1 or 2 players depending on quality.
1 question I couldn’t find an answer too. If a team goes into ltir during the season, is the accrued salary for before placing the player on ltir available when the player returns and we can accrue cap space again?
Yes it’s just that there is no 4C and McLeod is a checker at this point, and what is needed is a more productive other line
I use Vegas as an example as they are the champs at the moment. 22 on the roster and 2.7M in cap because Lehner Whitecloud and one on LTIR. Roy is on IR so he’s still counts on the cap as I understand. If we put Whitecloud and Roy back in as I get it when they send somebody down they squeak under
Per depth chart at Capfriendly here’s how the two teams spend, numbers rounded off
Oilers – Knights
1st – 23.75M / 20M
2nd – 15.7M / 13M
3rd – 3.8M / 9.6M
4th – 1.7M / 4.7M
Forwards 44.98M / 47.4M
1st Pair – 12.5M / 14M
2nd – 6.9M / 8M
3rd – 6.7M / 5M
Des an extra
Defense 26.8M / 27M
Goal 7.6M / 5.7M
The main differences is how much they spend on the bottom 6 forwards, goalies, and that the Oilers have 2M in dead cap, and Vegas is using LTIR
Of course the players they choose is a huge factor. Dead cap should be avoided at all costs, I think it is better to burn assets to sell buyouts, just not first round draft picks
And unfortunately using LTIR seems to be a big factor these days, although when Whitecloud comes back they are out of space and can’t accumulate more
Kulak is too expensive for a third pairing d. Unfortunately he’s injured and getting killed this year.
Too bad Holland took the summer off instead of moving him to free up $2m in cap.
The other mistakes was not buying out Campbell and trading a fifth for a fourth line AHL winger/centre.
The two teams spend the same on D basically, it’s just Holland can’t figure out how to balance the Oilers group. They need a better partner for Nurse (more capable, even if Ceci isn’t making mistakes, he is weak at most things) as the biggest piece, as Bouch isn’t there
And figure out the balance on third pair. Like trade Kulak for a similar RD and play Bro LD, and use Vinny as 7
Senators have fired GM Pierre Dorian after the league fined them a first round pick for screwing up the Dadonov no trade situation that negated a trade between Vegas and Anaheim.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/article/senators-fire-gm-pierre-dorion-in-wake-of-dadonov-trade-controversy/
Keep begging for attention bud. You’ll find it one day.
Steve S didn’t have to wait long
Yup.
The trigger finger was poised.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Officially, Pierre Dorion has resigned. Steve Staios is the interim GM.
CapFriendly
@CapFriendly
Pierre Dorion has been GM of the #Senators since April 10, 2016 (7 years, 2 months, 22 days).
In that time he made 80 trades, drafted 53 players, and made 182 signings worth a total of $873,464,125.
He prob should have been fired the moment he made the mistake.
Yeah…however they kept trying to blame Vegas for the screw up.
Wow
I am genuinely curious, and I think I know the answer, but:
Thumbs Up: I want my Oilers to be friendly and loyal and because 97 and KH brought 28 into the fold, and I’m sure his numbers will regress, they owe it to him to keep him on the roster past game 10 and operate with a limited budget next year.
Thumbs Down: It’s ~$3m for next season which is catastrophic cap management. Put him in the AHL immediately, we’re trying to win Stanley Cups here. Unless he tears the cover off the ball in Bakersfield, the $3m of next year’s cap is better spent… next year.
Do we want our team to win or feel good about themselves?
It’s more nuanced than that.
Connor Brown has undergone surgery and rehabilitation. He’s probably at 85% … by Christmas he’ll be over 90%, and hopefully by spring he’s a full 100% version of the player he was.
Per Bruce’s comments below, his possession metrics are pretty solid, and his PDO is tragically low. That will regress (positively).
The Connor Brown we’re going to see in February or April will be worth the $. Trust me.
This feels a bit leading.
I think the Oilers need to pay out the bonus, but not out of friendliness or loyalty, but because not doing so would likely be reneging on their negotiation with the player and agent. I’d like the Oilers to have a good standing around the league when it comes to negotiating with agents.
Holland is gone back to Detroit next year. Why would he give 2 shits about adding 3 million to our cap next year?
Option 3 – I think they should keep Brown up as I think his game will continue to progress and he will be a valuable piece come the second half of the year.
A year ago Raphael Lavoie was struggling at the AHL level.
Let that sink in for a minute. This guy was pipe dream for NHL employment unless he developed both his offensive, and well-rounded game.
Lo and behold, Colin Chaulk helped him find his confidence and Raph put up the points. Raph is on record as saying he’s working on more intangible elements that will make him more than just a top scorer in the AHL, but a polished player ready to be an NHL regular.
He’ll be an Oiler, ladies. Soon. This year! Trust the development model and the fact that in a few months time he’ll be of better use to the Oilers, because at this point substituting him in to take Adam Erne’s 4 mins / game will only hinder his development.
Poppycock! You don’t possibly put your best prospect especially a big one shot power forward on waivers and continually eff him around without test driving him. The way McLeod, Broberg and Holloway are looking these days Lavoie could be the best of this bunch right at this moment.
You’re dreaming.
Tyler Benson was a ppg player in the AHL. Couldn’t piss a drop in the show.
Last year Lane Pederson scored 17G in 18 games in the AHL. I suppose you think he should be third wheel on a line with 29 & 97.
Essentially you purport to know more than Ken Holland and Jeff Jackson. Okayyy.
Every G.M would give their left nut for a Tage Thompson type not so much for a career AHLer. What makes you think Lavoie won’t pop if given a real opportunity like Brown is recieving.We are 2-5-1 this team needs help. I’ll definitely take Gagner over Burt & Ernie but Lavoie should of been called up.
Not a single one of the other 31 GMs in the league thought there was a chance that Lavoie could pop like Tage Thompson.
Putting Lavoie on waivers didn’t eff him around – it offered him to 31 other teams – all passed.
I agree that Lavoie should have been called up but lets take a step back in to practical reality here, ok?
Lavoie was recovering from a severe injury, and missed training camp at the start of last year.
See how Connor Brown is doing.
See how Ekholm, McLeod, and Kulak are doing.
Don’t know what Bouchard’s excuse is?
Along those lines, even if we assume Lavoie is NHL helpful:
a) it’s unlikely he is the magic bullet to cure the slow start;
b) it isn’t hurting Lavoie (other than $) to spend another week or so in the AHL;
c) really the guys he would be replacing are Holloway and/or Janmark. You could include DR, but I don’t see that happening. So letting Raph stew, dominate and bully his way through the AHL while making a decision on 55 and 13 kinda makes sense. If it’s decided Janmark is the one to go – do they try and slip him through waivers and risk losing him for nothing or do they trade him away, which would weaken the team’s depth. Fair to think he’ll be P.O.’d if they send him down, but he’s been a flat tire so far this year.
Holy hell Zack Hyman:
30 minutes with McDavid: 8.15 G/60 (4.05 GA/60)
79 minutes w/o McDavid: 6.14 G/60 (5.37 GA/60)
McDavid w/o Hyman, 1 GF/60 and 3GA/60 in 60 minutes.
Holloway is averaging about 4mins more a night then Benson was and has played 20 more games while having 2 more goals.
Pretty sure this means they both stink.
Let’s say Leon comes clean and informs the organization he’s not resigning this summer and that he’s moving on. I wonder what kind of haul you would receive in the off season for Leon with a year left on his contract from the Capitals now that Backstrom and his 9.2 mil hit are Kelbombing away from the game.
I would think 3 first round picks or equivalent + a very good RD.
We are going to need a sharp G.M the next 5 years, will the combo of Coffey & Jackson along with a strong analytics team be the answer. Can the Coffey aura convince Leon then Connor to stay, if not they need to be a parlay machine no letting anyone walk away without a return. The Oiler sweater comes first and yes that includes Gretzky.
K Lowe will demand 5 assets!
And a barn fight!
I’d say a youngish (23-25) cost controlled top 6 2-way C, a top pairing 2-way RD and a couple of firsts or equivalent prospects.
If the Oilers go deep in the conference finals or further this year, I doubt he wants out though.
That’s not enough. What would it cost to get Malkin in his prime. Think Hedman plus.
Gagner will find a way to make a difference. He’s always had that.
The guy can score, hit, fight, pass, PP, PK…whatever you need. Having guys like that who could also sit in the circle on the powerplay and wire the puck home works a lot better than many other options.
Hit? Fight?
Huh?
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sam+gagner+fight
Enjoy
Yeah, he fights. What have you been watching?
He fights about once every two years.
I agree pretty much 100% with everything written.
1) Sam Gagner is better than Adam Erne and the swap helps the Oilers straight up.
2) I’m not sure how Woody will deploy Gagner, however, whether he just replaces him as the 11F/12F with 3-8 minutes per game or Gagner gets moved around a bit and gets more minutes, including some in the middle six, the Oilers are better.
3) I’m cheering for Sam. Its tough not to like the person and be happy for him on a human level.
4) I think Gagner was the wrong choice and the call-up should have been Raphael Lavoie.
5) I believe Lavoie has earned the opportunity, its not just the 5 games this season but its a culmanation of his developmetn over his 3 plus years as a pro, him being one of the better forwards in the AHL for 30 plus games last season and, now, today, being arguably the best forward in the AHL so far this year, bullying the league.
6) We know what we are going to get from Gagner and we know the impact will be limited at this point.
7) We don’t know what we could get from Lavoie but he is a 23 year old, 6’4, 215 pound, right shot, power forward with one elite skill and is as confidant as he’s ever been (presumably).
8) I agree, 100, just putting Lavoie in the Erne roll would be foolish and I’d rather keep him in the AHL, however, I think there is a legit opportunity to get him middle six or 3rd line minutes. Go four centers strong (McDavid, Drai, Nuge, McLeod) and there are six wingers to play in the top 9 (Kane, Hyman, Brown, Foegele, Holloway, Lavoie) – balance it and see what happend
9) Maybe Lavoie doesn’t make an impact – well, send him back down. He doesn’t need waivers until he plays 10 NHL games or is on the roster for 30 days.
Go Sam – I’m cheering for you!
I’m guessing they want McLeod playing more than 4th line minutes so that he can get up to speed.
Perhaps and, if I’m being truly honest, I was fairly adamant in the off-season, etc. that he should be 3C, not 4C, given the lack of minutes.
With that said, while I acknowledge he missed all of training camp, his play this season has essentially been that of a 4C and, in order to put someone like Lavoie in a position to suceed (i.e. not in the Erne role) and balance the lines, given McLeod’s play, I’m fine with McDavid/Drai/Nuge/McLeod as the four centers.
McLeod would still get PK time.
Now, with all that said, Lavoie isn’t here so that “suggestion” is neither here nor there at the moment. I don’t feel strongly about finding a way to get Gagner in the top 9 – he can have a role on the 4th line, I think.
It’s possible to give everyone enough minutes if the coach wants to
Its a balance between coaching, and the GM constantly upgrading, and making sure that the players available can do the job to the level wanted
Teams have ups and downs in their the phases of play through the reg season. You work through them and hopefully everyone is hitting their best when the second season starts. You can’t just flip a switch, hope for a deadline miracle, and win against final 8 and 4 teams without a ton of good fortune, and I don’t see hoping for that as being the same as having a plan
So is our best lineup Holloway at centre on the 4th line? He isn’t scoring or producing, and while he is always around the puck, so was Todd Marchant. McLeod and Holloway don’t seem to do much more the skate fast and forecheck.
So if Lavoie is recalled eventually after showing consistency, is this our ideal, more balanced lineup? Anyone riding shotgun with McDavid and Draisatl isn’t needed to do much more then forecheck and shoot if needed (why Puljujarvi worked in this spot. he created space, forechecked like a demon and was decent enough in his own zone along with his size). Lavoie can be that (but he seems to have more two way savvy and more hockey sense)
Draisatl. McDavid. Lavoie
Kane. Nuge. Hyman
Foegele. McLeod. Brown
Janmark. Holloway, Gagner/Ryan
can always swap Brown and Lavoie depending on the moment. But this seems to be the most balanced lineup we could ice. and adds some speed and youth to the 4th line, so they coudl actually produce soemthing.
C. Brown’s contribution to the team is worse than nothing – 8 games / 0 pts / -5. Lavoie has contributed more by NOT being on the team. This player is bad and needs 1/2 year in the AHL to see if he has anything left – which is doubtful after watching him in Oiler silks.
I can’t find if we can get around the bonus payment by sending him to the minors – if the team can then this should be done before his 10th game.
Have you been watching him in Oiler silks, or just reading his boxcars?
Brown has played 100 minutes, during which time Oilers have outshot the opposition 48-30 & been outscored 0-4. His PDO is .867, 50 points lower than any other Oilers forward. His shots allowed per 60 is 18, 4 better than any other Oilers forward.
Process: pretty good. Outcomes: bad.
I’m confident those outcomes will regress towards the mean.
Bruce as you know, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
On-ice stats (including Sh% + SV%) regress as TOI and the sample size increases.
The Corsiverse points to the larger sample as the “true value”, and the smaller sample as the “random value” (certainly randomness can show “more” in a small sample).
But really that larger sample of on-ice stats is closer to the values of the team. As a player’s TOI increases the on-ice values by law regress to the values of the team – particularly if the player receives a wide variety of deployment and teammates in 5v5 play.
The stubborn Corsiverse insists the larger sample is the more accurate assessment of the player and points towards the small variance between players over large samples as significant indicators of performance. However, a player’s influence on on-ice stats will be more salient in smaller samples.
So, the larger sample of Brown’s on-ice stats will tell us more about the Oilers, while in a small sample, Brown’s high individual shot rate and low scoring will influence his SH% + SV%.
Brown has been on ice for 48 shots, 10 of those shots are his (21%). In 2021-2022, he was on the ice for 458 shots, 81 of those shots were his (17 %).
This small sample might tell us more about Brown than the larger one. Certainly it tells us that he’s not scoring, and strangely enough neither are his teammates.
It reminds me of the pattern of Puljujarvi and the bottom six last season where to start there were a number of players who were not scoring. It doesn’t seem random to be honest. It seems like a lot of the Oilers bottom six have difficulty finding the twine in the first 30 or 40 games and could be related to their comparatively reduced sugar time due to feeding the big guns on the all time great PP.
While forechcek & shoot is part of the job description, any winger for McDavid/Draisaitl needs to be able to play solid defensive hockey in my view. To put a raw NHL rookie in that spot is an unrealistic expectation.
Also, Todd Marchant scored 12-20 goals all 9 seasons he was in Edmonton.
I agree completely, He has been our best forward at keeping shots and chances down.
He is 7th in the league for forwards in corsi against(37.3 ca/60), 14th for Fenwick against (28.3 fa/60) and 10th for shots against (18.06/60)
I think Gagner will give the team an emotional boost. I’m not sure if Gagner was ever a guy to drive a line but I like him as the 12th forward coming home to Edmonton. I think he has an OT goal in the playoffs in him. Years ago when the Flames and Oilers had a goalie brawl on the ice between Smith and Talbot, it was Gagner who crashed the crease and started the whole thing.
So let’s check in on a few non-Oiler fan favorites today
1) the Leafs are giving up damn near four a game and their problem the last eight years has been on defense. Thank gord Brad Treliving parachuted in to make more lemonade out of Ferrari’s. MLSE needs to punt Brad and Brendan before the damage runs deeper and everyone asks Out.
2) LA is riding a PDO heater from its goalers while surrendering the 2nd most shots per game in the league and is relying on its 3rd line for its shot outperformance. PLD bringing up the rear as per expectations and is now holding his line back while getting a 70% OZstart. I feel bad that TMac has to made lemonade out of the mess Blake left him. Yuck. Highest shooting percentage (along with Nucks) at EV strength in the league…
3) Colorado is a one line team and the last few games folks seem to have found out how to contain it. Champs to chumps in 16 months. Wow.
4) Vegas now winning games they should be losing and the PDO is strong. Excellent heater to start the year. Gap shall start closing now I reckon. They remain the best in the West along with the Oilers, will be a tough out.
5) Can’t say I’ve watched a Dallas game yet so will hold fire there.
6) Canucks with the highest shooting percentage in the league, one of the highest at EV strength and in Man Advantage… I’m sure it’ll last, just like it lasted last year. PDO Pony baby!
7) Detroit is fun to watch. They play with such pace. High event hockey and I’m not sure they’ve got the defensive horses to right the ship for a stronger than bubble
finish. Should be a fun year though. Core ages is the tricky nut for Stevie Y.
Leafs are giving up 3.11 G/GP
Oilers are giving up 4.00 G/GP
LAK are giving up 27.9 SOG/G…3rd lowest in the league
Oilers are giving up 30.1
Cam Talbot .914 2.47
My favourite is after the Leafs first 2 games where Matthews got 2 consecutive hattricks, there was all of that
“Matthews proving why he is the best goal scorer ever!”
Yeah he’s down to 8th in goals right now.
Colorado has a win percentage of .750
Vegas has the highest goal differential in the league at +16 as well as a .950 win percentage.
They can beat anyone at any time.
Dallas’ offence was slow out of the gate but their dominant first line is coming around.
A tough, tough out.
You’ve been played lol
Yup 😆
I agree the Canucks shooting percentage will most certainly regress, however if Pettersson, Hughes and Demko all stay healthy I can see them making the playoffs this year. Watched a bit of the ‘Nucks-Preds game last night and those three were all very good.
That was actually one of their poorer games.
Vancouver had an historically bad PK last season that cost them a large number of losses.
They brought in Pius Suter, Sam Lafferty, Teddy Blueger and three D to fix it.
Its working…now 77.1% which is mid pack.
(Oilers 72.7 5th worst in the league)
HH: You’re no saint. You got a free cab, you got a free room, and someone who’ll listen to your boring stories. I mean, didn’t you notice on the
planeblog when you started talking, eventually I started reading the vomit bag? Didn’t that give you some sort of clue, like, hey, maybe this guy’s not enjoying it? You know, everything is not an anecdote. You have to discriminate. You choose things that are funny or mildly amusing or interesting. You’re a miracle! Your stories have none of that. They’re not even amusing *accidentally*! “Honey, I’d like you to meet Harpers HairDel Griffith, he’s got some amusing anecodotes for you. Oh, and here’s a gun so you can blow your brains out. You’ll thank me for it.” I could tolerate any insurance seminar. For days, I could sit there and listen to them go on and on with a big smile on my face. They’d say, “How can you stand it?” I’d say, “‘Cause I’ve been with Harpers HairDel Griffith. I can take anything.” You know what they’d say? They’d say, “I know what you mean. The shower curtain ring guy. Whoa.” It’s like going on a date with a Chatty Cathy doll. I expect you have a little string on your chest, you know, that I pull out and have to snap back. Except I wouldn’t pull it out and snap it back, you would. Agh! Agh! Agh! Agh! And by the way, you know, when you’re telling these little stories? Here’s a good idea: have a point. It makes it so much more interesting for the listener!HH cares too much about results and not enough about process in small sample sizes.
It’s easy to outperform in small chunks and look bad in others. Take a look at what they have on paper, how many Standard Deviations they are outside the stats are norm and adjust accordingly.
So many LA and Van stats outside the norm, so many long term trends rolling downhill for the Leafs, Avs and Stars (especially now that folks have figured out how to play Robertson – shades of Canucks ineptitude are surfacing now).
Vegas remains the one and true tough out.
GMs went out and made their teams worse this summer. It was and remains astonishing incompetence. Nothing to the level of Doom, Brad inflicted on the Flames (told ya so), but also some of the weirdest plays that ensured less wins over a season, in a long time for basically everyone in the West aside from Vegas and the Oilers haha.
And yet the Oilers are 2-5-1 (i.e. 2-6). I could not care less what the other teams are doing until the Oil get their act together. Frankly, the Oil had a pretty ideal schedule to open the year in terms of opponent selection, and they came out with that mess of an October. I expect they will perform better this month, but they have to convert on chances, have a killer instinct.
Yes! We are 2-5-1 and the laughing stock of the league yet the Brady Bunch around here thinks we just won the Super Bowl. We have a 3rd line that skates like Barbara Ann Scott but doesn’t have her physicality. We have no 4th line and our G.M is a dead man walking. (thankfully)
LA’s bottom 6 has scored 15 goals.
Vegas 9
Vancouver 6
LA now requires Danault to score and/or generate chances, at a top line rate. They require that. If he doesn’t they will need to button down very hard to avoid being out chanced consistently away from that 3rd line. And they are not that great of a defensive team. They generate very little off the rush and as a season drags on establishing zone control gets harder if you’re a slower team. With the players sent out, those acquired and those aging, the Kings are a slower team this year compared to last. They’ll have a harder time gaining the zone, breaking plays in the dzone and breaking the zone with this lineup and over the season it will show. And their goaltending is suspect.
These trends showed last season but they got the benefit with all the injuries. Blake made the team slower.
Be patient.
It’s now crystal clear that Ernie, “a good Pro” was a warming the seat for Samwise.
This was the plan all along.
I had a friend once tell me he needed to father his two sons differently, and the oldest at times needed some tough love.
This is probably the case with Lavoie.
Consistency is key in the NHL and Lavoie needs to show it.
Through his interview, we know he understands that’s the key to his success.
Consistency is definitely key. But as a lot of other posters have noted too, that message seems to only apply to rookies and young players. The vets who should know better and are playing poorly, or just aren’t very good (Erne) get a ton of rope even when they are not consistently performing their role.
Its obvious to me now and it was a tell in preseason when Brown was given the pre-school kid glove treatment that he wasn’t ready, up to speed, trust his knee. We don’t have time for growing pains. We are 2-5-1 coming up against a tough Dallas team that has a Goalie that can steal any game. This desperation of double shifting Connor and Leon as a strategy for 82 games needs to end especially when Connor is hurting. Here is hoping Sam is riding on adrenaline and gives us a boost on Thursday.
Hey now, Oilers’ goaltending can also steal any game. (They just steal the win from the Oilers instead of the opposition.)
If Gagner gets the same TOI as Erne, he might have some better fancy stats, but likely won’t move the needle much. I wish Woody would play the bottom 6 more actually.
Every summer, after the finals are over, one of the most common themes for the teams that made it deep is how much of a contribution was made by their third and fourth lines. I’m wondering if it’s simply because we see those guys on the ice more than on the other teams (Edmonton for example). If they get a regular shift for those teams, of course their contributions are going to be more noticeable.
Around these parts, whenever the sphincters tighten in a close game or series, 97 and 29 are out the door every second shift. The argument can be made that it’s the bottom six player’s fault, but it hasn’t changed since MacLellan was here. The overall roster has improved greatly (on paper) over that time, and IIRC, the Oilers’ bottom six had decent regular season fancy stats last year.
Instead of blaming the personnel, I’m actually starting to worry that this is a symptom of Woody and his staff not being able to coach this team at the same level as the other coaching staffs that are able to get more out of their bottom six and win championships.
The lack of a legitimate 4th line center is likely the key. For whatever reason, the Oil have not been able to stabilize that position since ?
With a solid, dependable, reliable face-off man, the 4th line can gain an identity and start to find some rhythm and gain the coach’s trust.
since last trade deadline, when Nick Bjugstad was brought in.
I agree. won’t move the needle much.
Woodcroft initially rolled 4 lines. Was it Ryan who was super happy when Woody took over? I can’t remember, one of the vets said they were happy to get a chance.
Roll 4 lines, hard forecheck, hard stand-up at the blueline by the D.
Where has this team gone?
They don’t have 4 lines but we would of if Holland picks Zegras instead of reaching for Broberg.
I think if the GM has found competent NHL players in the right mix it’s more about coaching than personnel. Not having a 4C is bad, but really it’s about bringing everyone in the group together, and letting them contribute to the team
Every champion mentions things like this. Vegas did last playoffs. Ryan mentioned it after Tipp got tipped. It seems there is the top 6 and the rest again. It doesn’t help that Holland has not been good at finding the right mix, I think he tends to go after the same types, excepting Kane
Vegas 4th line is a big fast bruising trio, a balance to the skill guys many of whom are smaller. That’s their identity, everyone needs a role to keep working at. Another reason the blender is weak sauce
It’s an old approach to trying to get the players to play the system. Because they lack familiarity and need to rely on the tactics. Every player I have heard comment doesn’t like it really, and the better teams seem to run more consistent lines and pairings
When healthy Ekholm and Connor can play with anybody and still push the needle, that’s about it on this roster
1) The Oilers had a bottom of the roster that was impactful last season. The team was 62-50 goals with McDavid and Drai off the ice.
2) Even with the outscoring mentioned above, Woody refused to consistently play the bottom of the roster – constantly shortening the bench, early and often.
3) Given the depth is depleted from the end of last season, I don’t see Woody all of a sudden switching and commiting to playing them more.
4) The Oilers do have a 4C but he’s playing 3C. That’s harsh on McLeod but his game so far this season has been a true 4C. I’ve been confidant in his ability to develop in to the 3C of the future but he’s not in the moment.
5) Hence, they might think of going: McDavid/Drai/Nuge/McLeod as the centers. I don’t like the lower minutes for McLeod but that’s on merit right now and he’ll still PK.
6) I thought Lavoie as a 3rd line winger would help balance the lines on that 4 center set – not sure where Gagner would fit in there though.
7) Bjugstad was acquired as the 4C but Woody eventually move him WAY up the lineup.
—- Hell boys, Tyler Benson got NHL time! ——
This is Great LT !!