Projecting Prospects

This is a ‘reasonable expectations’ graph from the summer of 2015. I have tried many times in the past to build some kind of model that allows us to track prospects by giving each a ‘line in the sand’ before the season. I do it for the NHL team, but it’s easier because so much of the Oilers roster is predictable. Even the recalls are usually obvious. The AHL is a different beast.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: How the Oilers measure up to ‘reasonable expectations’ after 31 games
• Lowetide: Ranking the Edmonton Oilers’ top 6 trade assets
• Lowetide: Did the Oilers solve Leon Draisaitl’s winger issues in New Jersey?
• Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
• DNB: Evan Bouchard is unlocking his potential on the Edmonton Oilers blue line
• Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have enough actual NHL players?
• Lowetide: Winning or development? Assessing Oilers’ AHL team and what it means for the future
• DNB: Add a middle-6 forward or 2 to the long list of Oilers needs
• DNB: Why Paul Coffey’s surprise Edmonton Oilers coaching opportunity is paying off
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023

PROJECTING CONDORS

I had Brad Hunt scoring .833 pts-game in the AHL during the 2015-16 season. In fact, he delivered .72 pts-game. That is a miss, but Hunt did have a strong season for Bakersfield, finishing second in team scoring that season. I had Anton Slepyshev at .508, he finished .417 in 2015-16. Here’s the entire list above with actual totals in brackets.

1. Iiro Pakarinen .840 (actual: .75)
2. Brad Hunt: .833 (actual: .72)
3. Bogdan Yakimov: .591 (actual: .42)
4. Anton Slepyshev: .508 (actual: .417)
5. Kyle Platzer: .457 (actual: .354)
6. Greg Chase: .446 (actual: .368)
7. Jordan Oesterle: .446 (actual: .568)
8. Griffin Reinhart: .425 (actual: .333)
9. Mitchell Moroz: .338 (actual: .250)
10. Dillon Simpson: .303 (actual: .350)
11. David Musil: .200 (actual: .209)

This is a group of predictions that clearly aimed too high. There are talented players in this group, but my projections had the offense scoring at a higher rate. That would have required Leon Draisaitl to stay in Bakersfield. One transaction can make a huge difference to an AHL team. It’s hard to project these AHL prospects using just numbers.

The 2021-22 Bakersfield “RE”

• G Stuart Skinner (22): Solidifying his status as a legit AHL goalie with NHL potential.
• G Ilya Konovalov (23): He should emerge as the AHL starter and be the first recall.
• G Olivier Rodrigue (21): A strong ECHL season and quality play if he gets AHL time.
• LD Dmitri Samorukov (22): Dominating shutdown play, same as last season.
• RD Filip Berglund (24): Solid two-way play in the AHL with good offense.
• LD Philip Broberg (20): Deliver in all areas, impress with skill set.
• LD William Lagesson (25): A shutdown and mentor role and lots of PK minutes.
• RD Phil Kemp (22): More of his solid play, calm feet and good coverage.
• LD Markus Niemelainen (23): More of the same things we saw in Bakersfield.
• RD Mike Kesselring (21): He should grab a regular job and post solid numbers.
• RD Vincent Desharnais (25): AHL contract, he’ll play top-four much of the year.
• LD Yanni Kaldis: AHL contract, undersized, he is effective in support role.
• LC Dylan Holloway (20): A healthy year, point-per-game if he is at 100 percent.
• LC Ryan McLeod (21): Most of the year in the NHL.
• LC Tim Soderlund (23): Support role, penalty kill. I don’t see him as a feature player.
• LW Tyler Benson (23): If he’s in Bakersfield, he is an impact player and forcing a recall.
• LW Raphael Lavoie (21): 20+ goals and an enormous shot total.
• LW Brendan Perlini (25): If he’s in the AHL, Perlini should be one of the top scorers.
• LW Ostap Safin (22): A healthy season, 12-15 goals.
• LW James Hamblin (22): AHL contract, he can score and has utility.
• RW Cooper Marody (24): Productive scorer, same pressure to get a recall as Benson.
• RW Kirill Maksimov (22): A feature role, points-game around .65-.70
• RW Seth Griffith (28): Pure offense and power-play production, mentor the prospects.

I think that’s a better way to express it. Pure numbers are too exact for AHL players. We don’t know how they’ll be used. Raphael Lavoie was on the ice for 18 EV goals for and against, 7 PP goals for and 3 PK GA through his first 14 games. I don’t think he would be a strong PK guy, but the organization wanted to him to have a lash. Doubt it sticks. Here’s what I wrote last summer about this year’s team:

The 2023-24 Bakersfield RE

1. G Olivier Rodrigue (24): Building on last season, more starts, a repeat of .912SP (or better).
2. G Calvin Pickard (31): Healthy and effective, he may have to take a seat if Rodrigue spikes.
3. G Ryan Fanti (24): Likely ECHL time, and some AHL. Needs to improve on last season by some margin.
4. G Tyler Parks (31): He’s a quality ECHL starter, might see some AHL action.
5. LD Philip Broberg (22): I see him in the NHL all season, he would be dominant in the AHL now.
6. LD Markus Niemelainen (25): Big presence in the AHL, 20+ NHL games.
7. LD Ben Gleason (25): Consistent two-way play, possible NHL recall.
8. LD Cam Dineen (25): Strong offensive numbers, more consistent coverage than a year ago.
9. LD Noel Hoefenmayer (24): Effective two-way play, physical. Build on last season’s first half.
10. LD Alex Peters (27): Solid extra man.
11. LD Jake Johnson (24): College grad, likely ECHL but much is unknown.
12. LD Xavier Bernard (23): Big two-way blue, saw ECHL and AHL time last year.
13. RD Phil Kemp (24): Fills important top-four role, emerges as strong recall option.
14. RD Max Wanner (20): Struggles first half, improvement second half. He’s a good prospect.
15. RD Connor Corcoran (22): Good size, strong performance for Henderson in (just) 11 games.
16. RC Lane Pederson (25): He’ll split time between Edmonton and Bakersfield.
17. LC James Hamblin (24): A return to 20-goal plateau of 2021-22.
18. LC Brad Malone (34): Strong two-way play, more of a checking role this year.
19. LC Greg McKegg (31): Solid two-way play, something we saw in the later part of the year.
20. RC Jayden Grubbe (20): Mature and has size (6.03, 200). Checking role. 20 AHL points.
21. LC Carl Berglund (23): College grad, he will see depth minutes, possibly ECHL time.
22. LW Dylan Holloway (21): Listed on Condors summer tracker, I don’t believe it. Point-per-game in AHL.
23. LW Raphael Lavoie (22): Another strong season in Bakersfield, I think he makes the NHL team.
24. LW Drake Caggiula (29): A leading role, especially on offense, on the No. 1 line. Could play C.
25. LW Carter Savoie (21): He should have a breakout season if healthy. 20 goals.
26. LW Matvey Petroiv (20): If he gets solid EV and PP time, 15 goals as an AHL rookie.
27. RW Seth Griffith (30): Top-six minutes, fewer PP minutes, lower point total.
28. RW Xavier Bourgault (20): I think he’ll spike this season. 20 goals, 45-points pace.
29. RW Tyler Tullio (21): I don’t think he’ll score 20, but will go past 30 points.
30. RW Jack Chiasson (20): He may have a tough time winning playing time.
31. RW Dino Kambeitz (23): Increased production. I’d love to see him sign an NHL deal.
32. RW Ethan de Jong (24): Smart two-way player with skill. I think he could grab a significant role.
33. RW Cameron Wright (24): Skilled, bit of a bull. ECHL regular.

I think these are all reasonable. The goalies and defensemen are marching along with the beat I suggested, but the forwards, especially the prospects, are off the pace. Coach Colin Chaulk will know the organization needs one of the young forwards to break out in the second half, and I do think we’re seeing that in Carter Savoie right now. Here’s a brief update on each of the prospects in Bakersfield:

• Xavier Bourgault: He is 4-6-10 after 22 games. Bourgault began the year on a line with Sam Gagner and Lane Pederson, going 1-2-3 in three games. Recall (Gagner) and injury (Pederson) landed Bourgault on a line with checking center Greg McKegg and the results (until recently) have been predictable. He is 1-1-2 in his most recent three games. I had him 20-25-45 as a projection, and his current pace he’ll finish 13-20-33. Bourgault needs to pick up the pace, the presence of Tyler Tullio on the McKegg line has helped. I’d like to see time with Pederson at even strength.
• Raphael Lavoie: I suggested another strong season, and believed Lavoie would make the NHL team. He didn’t make the Oilers out of camp, but did see six NHL games so has made his debut. In the AHL, his scoring rates (9-3-12 in 17 games) have him No. 12 in the entire AHL for goals-per-game. He might be a trade piece (you can say that about every one of these players), and he might be the new Julien Gauthier, but I think he’s going to have a career because of his shot. Martin Frk has played in 124 NHL games, scoring 20 goals. I predict Lavoie surpasses both of those totals.
• Olivier Rodrigue: I had him bettering the .912SP from a year ago, getting more starts than last year and building on his 2022-23. Mission accomplished and then some! He leads the league in save percentage! That .935 SP he’s managed this year should get him an NHL game or two this season. I don’t think the Oilers will rely on him, but it behooves the team to see what he can do if they can afford to risk a game on a rookie goaltender.
• Max Wanner: I had him struggling in the first half, then settling in and playing better after Christmas. I love the fact he’s playing a feature role (definitely top-six D, I think top-four based on Eric Rodgers’ estimates) and expect his even-strength goal share (11-18, 38 percent) to improve. The fact he’s been on the ice for 29 EV goals in 22 games implies strong usage. If you’re fretting over that percentage, in Evan Bouchard’s first 27 games of the 2019-20 season, his even-strength goal share was 18-29, 38 percent. It’s the second half that saw Bouchard straighten up (23-22) and fly right.
• Matvey Petrov: I suggested he would score 15 goals if he received solid EV and PP time. That is not the case, and he is just 1-1-2 after 14 games. It’s disappointing, but he is a rookie amongst a pile of young wingers. Petrov getting lost in the flood is possible. He does good things in spurts, needs to be more consistent. He is a responsible player based on his EV goal share.
• James Hamblin: My prediction had him returning to the 20-goal plateau in the AHL and he would be on the way if not for his NHL recall. Hamblin scored 3-2-5 in six games and then found his way to Edmonton. He is a shy scorer but does a lot of good things. He is 21, 2-1-3 in the NHL this season and has played 31 NHL games. He will likely graduate as a prospect by my summer list.
• Carter Savoie: Don’t look now, but Savoie is starting to emerge as a legit NHL prospect. If he can avoid injuries, I think he has a chance. Great shooter, and he’s showing superior playmaking and passing ability in Bakersfield now. I suggested a breakout season, 20 goals if healthy. He is at 1-5-6 after 20 games, but 1-3-4 in his most recent six games. If you’re looking for a sliver of hope among these young wingers (Bourgualt, Petrov, Savoie, Tullio) trying to break out, Savoie is your man right now.
• Tyler Tullio: It took exactly one forever before Tullio played this season, but he didn’t take long to have an offensive impact. In 8 games, he’s 1-4-5 so far and that’s the top points-per-game total among the winger hopefuls in Bakersfield. I’d have Tullio as the ray of hope for the young W’s, but I’ve always had a feeling the organization doesn’t view him as a top flight prospect. Maybe he’ll be the modern Fernando Pisani. This kid has talent and is very determined. I suggested he wouldn’t score 20 goals, but would get 30 points. If he plays in enough games, 30 points is achievable.
• Cam Dineen: I suggested strong numbers and more consistent coverage defensively than last season. Dineen’s EV goal share in 2022-23 was 14-13, 52 percent, and this year it’s 11-17, 39 percent. Dineen is playing with Wanner, so some allowance must be made for running with a rookie. He was rumoured to be the recall before Ben Gleason was tapped on the shoulder in early December.
• Jayden Grubbe: I predicted he would post 20 AHL points this season. Through 22 games, he is 4-2-6 and on track to reach that total. More than that, he’s learning quickly on the job and has a knack for being in the right place. I believe bottom-six forward is his ceiling, but he has a chance. His EV goal share is 9-6, 60 percent. Impressive debut.
• Markus Niemelainen: I had him as a big AHL presence and predicted 20 NHL games. I’m not certain he plays in the NHL this season, and he was not effective until recently in Bakersfield. He is 12-10 goals at even strength for the season, but 3-0 EV goals in the last three games with two assists and seven shots on goal. I believe he’s an NHL player, and wonder if this recent spike gives him enough trade value to find a new NHL city at the deadline. Probably not, but he can play.
• Ben Gleason: I said he would play a consistent two-way game and would possibly be an NHL recall. He is currently in the NHL but hasn’t played yet for the Oilers. In the minors, he was 11-6 EV on-ice goals and led the defender with nine points in 14 games. He can play in the NHL.
• Noel Hoefenmayer: I predicted effective two-way play and a physical presence. He has 29 PIMs, leads defensemen in points (3-7-10 in 18 games), 12-11 EV goals. I don’t know if he’ll ever play in the NHL, but he looks capable in the AHL and has range to his game.
• Phil Kemp: Kemp projected as a strong top-four AHL option and earning consideration for NHL recall. He isn’t the first name you think of when making a list of recall options, but is RH and a solid shutdown blue. So far this season, his EV goal share 16-11, 59 percent.

You can read about the Oilers top 20 prospects here.