Under Tyler Wright, the Edmonton Oilers had a ‘shoot the moon’ mentality at the draft table. The scouting staff didn’t have many picks, but the ones used outside the first round tended to be offensive forwards who had a dominant skill. I think that’s the right plan.
The Oilers after 31 games: pre-season individual and team predictions are in the ditch. The season so far resembles a visit from Pennywise the Dancing Clown. There ARE some strong and unexpected performers. https://t.co/nmnjCURWN5
Dylan Holloway. If Wright had a major flaw, it was drafting players in the first round who did not dominate the league they were in during their draft season. Holloway is such a player. Great athlete, great wheels, but the offense remains uncertain. Edmonton needed a sure thing offensively. I think they sought a top-six forward, may have delivered a middle-six forward. He’s an NHL player, but was drafted high enough for offense to be the expectation.
Carter Savoie. He was running over AJHL opponents in his draft year. He then scored well in college, but his pro career has been rife with injury. He’s catching some traction right now, I’m going to watch him closely tonight. His dominant skill is a rocket shot, but the man can pass like ringing a bell.
Tyler Tullio. He wasn’t a high risk pick, but did bring offense and I remain surprised Tullio was available when Edmonton picked him. I’m still uncertain the team values him, he has never been in a feature role that I can see. He’s tracking as an NHL player, but quietly.
Maxim Berezkin. He might be the best prospect in the system. He is having a solid year in the KHL. Power forward with speed the question. Another shoot the moon.
Filip Engaras. Long shot, but a RH centre and that’s a useful selection later in the draft. No longer in the system.
Jeremias Lindewall. Another long shot, he was performing well on draft day in that weird pandemic draft where the seasons in Europe were underway. He is stalled in the Allsvenskan, but I liked the risk and it was shoot the moon.
Xavier Bourgault. Another shy first-round pick offensively. I didn’t see it, and in fact expect Bourgault to blossom in the second half. However, there is mounting evidence that Bourgault’s offense is in the range of Holloway. Bourgault is a fine PK man, and could make the NHL in a middle-six role, but that isn’t good enough for where he was chosen.
Luca Munzenberger. I think Ken Holland is responsible for a few picks over the years. We know he was the driving force behind the Philip Broberg selection. I think Munzenberger is another. It’s a match for his drafting style, not so much Wright’s resume.
Jake Chiasson. A relentless forward who won’t give up on a play, he never had a big offensive season in junior and for that he is an outlier on the Wright list.
Matvey Petrov. This might be the signature pick for the Wright era. Petrov was a helluva shoot the moon. His Russian boxcars were strong and his Canadian junior career impressive. He isn’t scoring in the AHL as a rookie but has plenty of time. I’d like the Oilers to draft this way with every selection.
Shane Lachance. Big PF, similar to Berezkin in that he has the scoring chops and size, but the wheels are the question. I like the bet very much.
Max Wanner. I’ll bet money this was a Holland selection. He was beyond obscure on draft day. The old WHL scout found one. Credit where due (if I’m correct).
Reid Schaefer. Similar to Bourgault in that the offense justified the selection but the pro level scoring would be a concern. I think Schaefer is more similar to Holloway than Bourgault. Plenty of time for him to establish himself in the AHL as an NHL option.
Samuel Jonsson. A big Swedish goalie with middling numbers. We’ll see. Scout saw him good.
Nikita Yevseyev. An inspired selection, I don’t know whom to credit but Yevseyev is on a level with Wanner as a prospect in my opinion. Shoot the moon because Russian.
Joel Maatta. A depth pick, and like Engaras and Lindewall, his position (center) and underlying skills (faceoffs, defensive play) justified the selection.
Sixteen picks used, and that means just five traded away. That’s the good news. The bad news is that Wright’s first-round selections are not turning out as hoped. I think there’s some evidence the new administration isn’t high on Bourgault, and that’s never good. If I were a rival NHL team, I’d offer a second-round pick for him. He’s worth the risk.
Among the 16, I count six shoot the moons (Savoie, Berezkin, Lindewall, Petrov, Lachance, Yevseyev) and I’d like that number to be 16. Wright lost his job who knows why (new admin most likely), and I didn’t like his 2020 first-round decision. I loved his risky bets. If even one of them comes in, that’s a good bit of draft business. Condors play tonight.
I think they need to upgrade the Ceci position the most. And get a RW for Draisaitl (maybe Holloway and/or McLeod) fix the top six. If it is both McLeod and Holloway, then the Oilers need a centre.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 10:08 pm
Kambeitz with a great job to negate the icing with the Henderson net empty, then tied up 2 player behind the net, it squirts free to Mckegg who center it to Caggiula who wrists it in to the empty net.
Final score, 3-1.
Rodrigue with 29 saves on 30 shots.
Truth be told, not a difficult 29 saves, not many high danger at all but he was solid and had no chance on the double deflection off the post that beat him.
All of the older players (Pickard, Gleason, Dineen, Hoefenmary, Kemp, Niemelainen, Caggiula, Malone, etc) are able to slide in for an NHL game or two. I don’t think Seth Griffith is anymore, but the Oilers pool of recall talent is large.
The potential to improve is nonexistent with these players, though.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 9:53 pm
Grubbe loses a defensive zone draw, back to the point for a one-timer and its tipped in front off the point and in.
No chance for Rodrigue as the shutout is lost on the 26th shot.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 9:52 pm
Beautiful goal by the Condors – a wonderful breakout pass (I think it was Broberg but can’t be sure), Grubbe zone entries, drops to Malone and heads to the net, Malone cross-seam down low to Caggiula who fires it in front and Grubbe scores.
On replay it went off Grubbe’s skate as he drove the front of the net – under review but it should be a good goal as he was in the process of stopping, not kicking.
Remember Kassian did a number on his jaw a few years back.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 9:11 pm
Condors flip the script and dominate the 2nd period but no more goals. Up 1-0 after 2 and outshooting Henderson 26-19 now.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 8:08 pm
Condors with a nice sleepy start through 15 minutes.
Grubbe and Wright force a neutral zone turnover to gain the zone – Wright with a pass from the side-boards to the front of the net but Grubbe misses it, it goes off his skate, off a Knight and right to Caggiula who buries it from the slot for a 1-0 lead.
Carter Savoie taking a shot off the leg while in the front of the net, he looked hurt at least a little coming off the ice. Henderson has their work boots on.
Reja
December 27, 2023 5:33 pm
The trio of Larsson, Eberle and Yamo will pick up 2 goals and 1 assist against the mediocre Flames tonight.
1) Trade a 2024 6th and 2025 3rd & Pickard for G Alex Lyon. Signed for 900K this year and next. Started playoff games for the FLA Panthers last spring before Bob took over. Good NHL numbers this season.
2) Cody Ceci, Ty Tullio, & 2024 2nd for Vladimir Tarasenko (50% ret). A RW for Draisaitl. Ceci goes home to Ottawa.
3) Brett Kulak, X Bourgault, & 2024 1st to Calgary for Rasmus Andersson. Broberg elevated. Calgary gets an LD to replace Hanifin and draft treasure to re-build.
Who takes the spot of Ceci? That’s a massive hole created for a rental player who may or may not add to the offence.
Three coaches have seen, evaluated and all of them have come to the same conclusion, Broberg isn’t winning any spot on the current roster.
moving Ceci & Kulak won’t move the needle.
I like where you’re going, but RA got absolutely exposed against us in the playoffs. I like his style (younger Radko Gudas) but question his effectiveness.
I like the Anderson idea, but he is their #1 D,and correct me if I am wrong, I think he is their top PP D, he plays big PK and EV minutes. I don’t know if getting him out of Calgary for that package is possible, but I like it.
Flames fans are very frustrated with him and his reluctance to shoot. They call him “Passmus”…
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 3:18 pm
Spec reporting that Holloway is on the California trip where he will practice, but not play games.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 2:21 pm
Confirmed by Ryan Holt that Rodrigue gets the start tonight and, to me, THAT is telling.
Both Dineen and Hoeffenmayer are out with injury and both ECHL call-up d-men will play (Xaviar Benard and Connor Corcoran).
Scungilli Slushy
December 27, 2023 1:38 pm
I was chatting with my nephew who was a good player drafted to the Dub. He decided two years ago to quit hockey. He got burnt out trying to get his hat in the ring I think, and also was a big kid but didn’t keep growing unfortunately and played D
His take on things was interesting. For one that this draft class is good but nowhere near last year. Says he’s played against both group’s top ranked players. We’ll see. The main thing he said was about development. There isn’t any or much from teams until you prove yourself first, at higher levels
Comments today about our young guys got me thinking about this. Players used to get drafted knowing how protect themselves or they wouldn’t make it to that point. Hockey is different now
Bro was getting lit up until recently. Savoie getting banged up every game according to OP. Holloway constantly getting injured. It seems that some energy should be spent teaching players that obviously don’t know how, to play in a way to stay healthy
Not to change their games but there are ways to go into battles, how to be stronger on your skates. Body position, angles etc. When Holloway got hurt this time I was thinking what’s he doing, he was off balance and looked like he was falling or something and got hurt. It looked weird and ended badly for him
Maybe they do talk about it, and did before the new coaches, but the times change and what’s needed does with it. Players now have great skill early and most skate well, but the physical aspect and what they know coming in doesn’t seem as good as it was at least for more skilled players. Slafkovsky was getting rocked and hurt in his NHL start, even at 230. Tough guys and players who are mostly physical of course get it
I hope Jackson does what he said he wanted to, best of everything. Perhaps the first round prospects are shy on offense, so it makes sense to invest in training them even at the NHL level and maximizing whatever they have. It’s said the NHL isn’t a development league but that’s not really true. All players keep developing for years after they make it. Not everyone is Connor and can make changes mostly on their own off season
Curlock wrote on Holloway and sees him as being a smart player still feeling things out, but with a lot of potential. One upside of the forwards being a bit shy offensively is that they remain affordable for a top heavy team. Forming them into something helpful is far better than just losing them, because they don’t just become what you wanted, as has happened so many times before
I know quite a few players who went through the USNDP, it is impressive. Kids as young as 10 are identified and it starts with being named to their state’s all star team. One of my sons played for Team Connecticut way back in the day when the program was first started and then one year he was not named. When I called the program administrator for an explanation he put me in touch with the USNDP. At the time my kid was a Canadian citizen (now US citizen) and told me they would not waste resources training a kid who would not play for the national team.
In any event, I too am very impressed with the USNDP and believe they will pass us. They are investing huge resources. Nothing but the best.
Great story and interesting comment. My son was an undersized d-man who could skate, defend and make that initial breakout pass like no one’s business. Had great coaching who also spent time teaching him how to protect himself (back when contact started when you were a pee wee). Played into college before deciding he’d had enough.
I do wonder if now, putting off body contact until your older is hurting development because you’re not taught to protect yourself.
Thanks. My nephew wasn’t an offensive type, but good all round. He was also mean, just his nature. He played like an NHL D as a kid, saw the box a lot! I don’t think it worked as well for him as the other kids were getting bigger
It seems from watching the young NHL players a lot of them don’t protect themselves well. Of course there is always a learning curve, always has been. It’s not only in taking hits, the board play is often so awkward. That’s a learned skill
Holloways’ latest hurt he was so off balance trying to pursue, weirdly lifts his leg and loses an edge and into the boards. I remember how Messier skated with his head and torso up, so hard to knock off balance. Not that many are like him, but you could work on body position for those not showing it. Not getting knocked over and not taking big hits is a health skill
Most kids that see the NHL now aren’t former pond hockey players. They are academy, or program kids like in the US or Europe. If they aren’t learning these things there anymore, teach them in the A or NHL for those too good for the A. Why not? It just makes your team better. At one time perhaps they had to teach skills more, now maybe they have to teach the non puck side of things more
As soon as they changed allowing hitting from peewee to bantam, I told anyone that would listen, it was a terrible idea. It gave kids two extra years of continued habit of carrying the puck with their head down. That two extra years of forming habits makes it that much tougher to break bad ones.
As a smaller player, I had to learn quickly to keep my head up. If I had two extra years of being devoid of danger, I’m sure I could’ve been seriously injured later on. But, learning to keep my head up earlier in my career helped me avoid serious injury. I can honestly say I never once got rocked because my head was down.
And yeah, our coaches taught us how to take hits. We got an extra two years of learning that skill.
I wonder if some of the gaps in learning how to protect yourself are related to all the zone/academy type teams that hockey has moved to (here in BC anyway). So now all the “good” kids from say 13 or 14 are making a team because of their high level skill be it skating or shooting, or they grow big early. As a result players don’t get those games against the teams who are less skilled but use physicality to win.
Sure there’s still hitting but I don’t see many “keep your head up games”. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, obviously player safety for kids is #1, but when you’re 19 and you go into a corner with Gudas or Trouba they maybe aren’t really aware of how hard the big dogs bite.
Some of it is the player’s own awareness certainly, but I see this as a thing teams should be interested in coaching. Like every aspect of pro hockey
It’s a non cap freebie and advantage over teams that haven’t noticed what players today need to learn, and there has always been something but it changes as minor hockey changes
Also investing in the young goalies. If they are drafted or in the system give them everything to grow. Maximizing what you have is the cheapest way to a stronger org
Great post. It’s late to comment, but I wanted to add that while I can appreciate the club, academy, programs purpose to develop at a young age, I find it non beneficial for all round kids .
An example, my hockey son loved playing other sports, including soccer. He passed on spring hockey league to play soccer.
But the best soccer clubs would not let the hockey kids in because they would not stick with the club for the indoor season. The summer tier 2 teams were often better than tier 1, due to hockey kids.
Anyway, sports take commitment, I just like to see kids enjoy several sports as the chance of going professional is very slim.
Mayan Oil
December 27, 2023 12:12 pm
I just read (I think it was on Hockey Writers) a proposed trade of Jake Guentzel to the Islanders for three pieces. Intriguing to me, I wondered about the Oilers getting into it to solidify their top 6 F… What would you say to Guentzel in at 40% retained, for Bourgault, Connor Brown, Brett Kulak, a 2025 4th and 2026 2nd?Still leaves 2 picks in the first 3 rounds for the next three years, Gives Broberg a shot at 3LD… any takers?
Why would Pitt make that trade for the hot garbage you have going the other way? 🙂
MrFancypantss
December 27, 2023 11:32 am
Someone mentioned Saros, I’ve always thought he would be perfect for the Oil. Almost the same contract situation as Ekholm. Would a 1st /Campbell / prospect get this done?
I know Nashville is ahead of us in the standings, but ya never know?!
A 1st and a top prospect doesn’t even get rid of the Campbell contract let alone the acquisition cost for Saros.
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 10:31 am
Shane Lachance. Big PF, similar to Berezkin in that he has the scoring chops and size, but the wheels are the question. I like the bet very much.
I can’t remember the exact name of the person, Cody something, but OilersNation had him on as a guest on one of their pods late last week and this guy raved about LaChance – said he’s seen about 12-15 BU games this year and thinks the Oilers have a diamond in rough here.
knighttown
December 27, 2023 10:30 am
Some random conversation starters on a quiet Dec 27 day around here;
I have niggling concerns about Nurse and Ceci against the true elites of the league. The Vegas performance worried me sick and I saw some really concerning stuff specifically in the Winnipeg game where Ceci simply couldn’t hack it against Connor, Scheifele and Ehlers. The good news is that 2/14 behind 97 is a juggernaut. You can’t have it all but I worry 29/x/x/25/5 is going to have trouble in a seven game series again. For this reason this is still my top priority.
Some cold water on 71 at 2LW. I get that the narrative is that he’s finally going to the net to score but let’s be realistic here, his problem was never going to the net without the puck it was going to the net WITH the puck. He’s scored 3 goals recently. On the first he trailed behind Janmark on the forecheck who popped a puck to 89 who gave it to him back door. Good for him to be there. Goal #2 was an egregious turnover by Luke Hughes for a shocking breakaway. Again, real nice finish. Goal #3 was Foegele creating and again good for him for standing in the blue paint. I’m not saying this isn’t progress because it is. But there’s a long way to go before I call him a solved problem.
We likely need to stop asking for a 1B goaltender. I think Stu is the 1B. Remember, he’s being paid 2.5M and currently by far the worst goals saved above expected in the NHL at -12. 82nd place and dead last. We don’t need someone to play 40% of the games we need someone to play 60%. As painful as it will be we may need to empty the tank for a Gibson (+3.3 GSAA). I love Stu but we’re more likely to miss the playoffs than win the Cup with him as your #1A.
+1 for everything but your suggestion “to empty the tank for a Gibson (+3.3 GSAA).”
Reason being, Gibson is poised to hit his annual skid (and I concede you said a Gibson). He does this every year. ArmchairGM blesses us with the splits often, and yet folks around here always forget how consistently Gibson fades early in the new year. Annually.
If we’re to empty the tank, as you say, it had better be for a Sorokin/Oettinger/Shesterkin/Saros type. Normally I’d say Hellebuyck/Bobrovsky being famous and good for a long time (Guide and Record Book types) but if we’re going to sell the farm for a goalie, he’d better be elite for the foreseeable future.
Sure but none of Sorokin, Oettinger or Shesterkin are even remotely available and if you take trotz at his word, neither is Saros. Helly was just signed and Bob is the undisputed #1 on a team with Cup aspirations. They simple aren’t available. Gibson is likely available.
ABSOLUTELY some concerns but I’d argue most think he’d spike getting out of Anaheim. But I concur there’s some serious risk.
They were simply named as comparable talents to look for in a Hail Mary acquisition. I’m well aware they’re not likely to be available for less than Leon, which is a non-starter for me.
I just don’t trust Gibson. I know ANA is a tire fire, but AGM’s regular posts about his annual breakdowns have me spooked.
I think Stu is the 1B. Remember, he’s being paid 2.5M and currently by far the worst goals saved above expected in the NHL at -12. 82nd place and dead last.
Not faulting your logic, but I’d be interested to see the splits for the coaching change.
Basically everyone was terribad to start the year, so no surprise Stu’s numbers suffered.
Should be looking to upgrade/trade McLeod RFN when he appears “hot”…it won’t last and for once would be nice to trade from a position of power
Skinner at his price point is a luxury and we should be looking to spend the same amount of total goalie salary as we have now to get a 1A. Problem is Campbell on the books
Realistically, there is not enough cap space to get a 1A goalie and a top 4 RHD Ceci replacement. Also, none of the top 10 NHL goalies (the guys who would be tried and true difference making, game stealing goalies) are available … no Nashville is not going to trade us Saros at the deadline unless they have an epic collapse from now to then.
By next season, if Rodrigue keeps tracking well, he may get the call to backup Skinner. Campbell will be bought out. Until then, Pickard has done noting to suggest that he can’t handle backup duties.
So then the priority for this year should be to find a RHD equivalent of Ekholm to upgrade Ceci. Looking at the bottom half of the league standings, is it possible to identify a player like that?
The issue with Ceci is first he does have first pair puck skills. He’s ok when he’s making an effort which seems to have amped up under Coffey. He also doesn’t have first pair boots which may be why he has trouble defending entries
Given Nurse isn’t naturally a good puck mover either, not an ideal pairing. Nurse has carried lesser partners always, but his game would probably take a step if he had proper support. Bouchard stylistically is a better partner but isn’t there now. I think Ek could carry Ceci as Ek is a good puck mover, good at everything. They would be a shut down pair. Maybe KK and Coffey end up there
I can’t see an upgrade without pain long term. They can’t really afford another expensive D so likely a rental. Especially given the Campbell situation which will cost assets or cap or both
I know – this is what I keep coming back to … how do you upgrade the RHD partner for Nurse in a way that is feasible under the cap … and who might possibly have that asset for sale by the trade deadline?
It is do-able – you move Kulak for non-roster assets which saves apx $1.9MM on the cap and, if you get the flames to retain half on Rasmus A. or the Canes half on Pesce, for example, you get pretty close.
Presuming the Oilers are out of LTIR in the next few months, they will accrue some cap space and, the later in the year, the less actual projected cap hit is acquired (if they stay out of LTIR).
I also don’t see 71 as a long term solution at top 6 LW. He’s not aggressive enough offensively, and players rarely become different players in that way. Maybe he’s a rare one
The balance thing keeps coming up for me. I want the team to be able to play a physical game, but I think you have to be smart about it. Connor for regular Oiler forwards is third in Hits/60. Kane is way too high
I don’t want Connor hitting. He is the team. Finish checks ok, but he needs to be healthy going into the playoffs if they make it, and want any chance of making any noise. Leon is 15 pounds heavier and last on the team in hits so far. Connor isn’t built for it either. Woody started this with his sowing seeds nonsense last playoffs. I get that he felt they got roughed up the previous playoffs, but I didn’t like the message. The Oilers aren’t built to be a constantly physical team up front
Vegas won by ignoring the Panthers antics and attempts to drag it into the gutter. They were happy to oblige the Oilers, probably because it took the Oilers away from their strengths. Distracted them, like it used to in the 80’s when Sheahy could single handedly get the Oilers into lizard brain, away from skilled hockey, the Flames only chance. Vegas said they thought they could win it 5v5, the Oilers should have been completely focused on that part of the game, any distractions could only hurt that. Pick your spots. We’ll see if KK changes it for us
Kane is a power forward yes, but throwing so many hits means he is vulnerable to getting hurt, and he is. He’s 15th for forwards in the league, and the only skill player in the top 30. He is not good when he’s hurt, and they need him to be at his best. He needs to be told to tone it down, not stop being a power forward, but to pick his spots better. The only other top 6 forwards in the top 50 hits are B Tkachuk and T Wilson, both bigger than him and under 30 YO
Erne leads the forwards at 18.63 / 60, and so he should, that’s his job. Then we have Lavoie 13.16, Kane 11.99 and Holloway 9.78. Hmmm. Maybe Lavoie should have been asked to try to play hockey first, use his skill, and then add the physical as he got used to the league. Holloway also needs to focus on scoring first because that is his biggest weakness right now and has his career in jeopardy
Kane and Holloway got hurt. Even if they didn’t get hurt hitting this time, if you play that rambunctiously or recklessly it’s going to happen. I remember this Taylor Hall guy. Then there is a big drop off to Janmark at 3.94, then Connor 3.92. So Janmark gets it. Drai is at 1.09, Nuge 1.35, Brown 1.91. The only top 6 forward on the Knights that is top 5 in hits is Barbashev. But he’s Russian, different breed. On the league leading Canucks, of the top 6 only Miller is top 5 hits, but he’s 218, he’d be the second heaviest Oiler, and he’s not even in the top 50 league wide
I want bottom 6 forwards being the physical presence. The less skilled D. If they get hurt the team doesn’t reel. Two of the Oiler forwards are bottom 6, three now that Brown lost his spot not that he hits much, and one has hardly played
This is not how I would construct a team, or what I would want them doing. The lower down the roster, the more you add physically, makes more sense. Of the D Ek is first, Nurse third. The two best D. We need them healthy. Bouch doesn’t need to hit as much but should carry more weight there at least finishing checks. Ceci has half the hits Nurse has. He should be doing more and Nurse less. Hedman is last in hits for D in Tampa. He probably knows if he’s hurt the team is hooped, it’s happened. I’m sure Cooper knows
The top end can hit more in the playoffs if it’s needed, but if not try to stay as healthy as possible. Thank goodness KK is playing Connor strategically on the PK. All we need is him blocking point shots when others can obviously do it just fine
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 10:28 am
Dylan Holloway. If Wright had a major flaw, it was drafting players in the first round who did not dominate the league they were in during their draft season. Holloway is such a player. Great athlete, great wheels, but the offense remains uncertain. Edmonton needed a sure thing offensively. I think they sought a top-six forward, may have delivered a middle-six forward. He’s an NHL player, but was drafted high enough for offense to be the expectation.
I think his injury history since he was drafted has played an issue in his development and in his offensive game at the pro level. Here is hoping that we are close to done with that being a story line for this player.
If, at the end of the day, he becomes a solid middle six player, that’s just fine, more than fine if its at center. We (or at least I) have thought that McLeod would be that 3C for the next decade and while that is likely still the plan, there is a crack there for maybe Holloway to play some center while we see what McLeod looks like on the wing.
I think 3C/middle 6 winger can be options for both these players.
Carter Savoie. He was running over AJHL opponents in his draft year. He then scored well in college, but his pro career has been rife with injury. He’s catching some traction right now, I’m going to watch him closely tonight. His dominant skill is a rocket shot, but the man can pass like rining a bell.
Health, Savoie needs to be able to stay healthy to gain tracation. He seems to take a beating every game and, even last game, was down for a while.
I agree with LT here, I think the AHL game is starting to slow down for him a bit and he’s starting to be more dynamic on a nightly basis. If he was continue to play nightly, we might have the start of a pop here.
Tyler Tullio. He wasn’t a high risk pick, but did bring offense and I remain surprised Tullio was available when Edmonton picked him. I’m still uncertain the team values him, he has never been in a feature role that I can see. He’s tracking as an NHL player, but quietly.
He had a very solid development year last year and I had him as a dark-horse for a late season call-up this season. His early injury likely precludes that (along with the organization’s opinion that young players are prohibitive of winning cup) but he’s had a VERY good start to his season as far as production, tenacity, etc.
He’s been playing with Bourgault and McKegg on what I would deem the 2nd line and they are also part of the PP2 unit.
(along with the organization’s opinion that young players are prohibitive of winning cup)
When did the organization make such a broad, sweeping statement? The inexperience of Holloway, Hamblin, Desharnais and Skinner sitting on the roster stands in stark contrast to such an opinion, if they did express such.
When he expressed that Lavoie couldn’t make the team because “we don’t have time for growing pains”.
Bling
December 27, 2023 10:02 am
I really like the Holloway selection. Yes his draft season stats were underwhelming, but remember his splits showed meaningful progression in the second half of that season.
If he can stay healthy, I think he’ll be in the league for a long time based on his skating ability and willingness to drive the net.
He has played centre all of his life, and they are converting him to a winger. He never had to learn to protect himself along the boards. He is learning the hard way. You know, maybe they could coach him a bit. Maybe is would be best left at centre.
Let me get this straight, the Oilers management and coaches are at fault for Holloway’s injury history because they made him play wing and he has to near the boards more?
Of note, his major injury in college came while playing center.
He also played wing his first year in college.
Two of his injuries, the wrist/thumb and the current were him “hurting himself”.
You have to admire Oilers for constantly drafting injured juniors. It takes guts to play poker, constantly betting on a four card flush in draw poker; or an inside straight.
update: in poker this is guaranteed to lose strategy. A pair of 8’s has more power than Ace/King/ Queen/ Ten/ Nine – all cards spades aside from the ten.
Perhaps the solution to the 3C dilemma and keeping Holloway off IR is having him play 3C…
Pretendergast
December 27, 2023 9:48 am
X being a middle six with PK after being picked in the 20’s isn’t good enough? Johnston is showing to be the pick but nobody after is in the range of ‘shoot the moon’ until Knies or Moser a full round later.
Middle six winger who can contribute offensively, PK, and never play on the PP is a valuable piece.
I do think the Oilers futzed his development, maybe they’ll play him in a feature role with their best AHL players going forward. I will reserve judgement until that happens.
Saying “he can PK” as a prospect is a nice way of saying “he better be able to PK because there isn’t enough offense to be a top-6”. Especially as a winger. Connor Brown can PK but he has zero goals and is a healthy scratch.
Remember too, this narrative that he’s a 200 foot player who just needs the offense to come is relatively new too. He was drafted to be an offensive weapon and not much else.
“An exceptional stick handler with buttery-soft hands and a quick-strike mentality, Bourgault has to be in the running for the flashiest wingers available in the draft.” -Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst
This isn’t Dylan Holloway. Holloway always had the speed and motor to be a Warren Foegele at worst. Bourgault is more like an Eberle or Nuge with his skill set. Subtlety, smarts, skills. The highway is littered with offense-only players who can’t generate offense at the highest levels and then try and become “200 foot players”.
Imperfect analogy. With effective pitch framing, game calling, and limiting the running game, a catcher can bring tons of value without hitting much at all.
Most distressing is that the organization appears to have given up on his being able to make a difference with a pure skill center like Lane Pederson. That’s a tell, too.
I recall that part of the report on Bourgault also mention high-level to elite results in break-out passes from the D-zone and same regarding forechecking and take-aways.
He brings a lot of what KY brought in Bakersfield, without the physicality & just pure aggressiveness.
If I recall, Yamo was generally the best Condors forward in his time there and he was deployed on the 1st line with vet, aggressive and skilled AHL forwards. Malone was his Center and often Gambardella (who was a top-notch NCAA forechecker) as the LW. I think Gambardella’s best AHL years coincided with his time on KY’s line.
In Bourgault’s case it seems that his most productive AHL stints have been with either Lavoie or Tullio as his linemates. I think he absolutely needs to play with an effective Center, and in California, Pederson would be ideal. I don’t know why they don’t have that figured out there.
So why, exactly does/did, an ECHLer get prime time minutes on the 1st line over the sophomore 1st rounder?
This is an argument I can see having some merit. This absolutely was a thing with Yamo. I remember LT and other AHL-o-philes talking about how much he created at the AHL and doggone it, they were right when it carried on to the NHL.
Now I don’t watch XB so can’t say but is forechecking and turning over countless pucks (even if they aren’t leading to goals) really a glaring strength for XB? Again, my image of him is more of a Eberle/Nuge type of smooth/skill combo.
It is poor coaching NOT to recognize that an all-around talent like Bourgault needs more opportunity to demonstrate that all-around talent, than a prospect who has a signature skill.
The team has long soured on prospects with good ability because they didn’t light it up right away. Everyone must be Kurri! Anderson! Must be the late 70’s drafts that messed their thinking up, and it’s not gotten better since
Connor Brown is different in that this year he PKs and brings zero offence.
I think it’s too early to tell on Bourgault. He isn’t playing a feature role and that’s at least partially on the org.
He’s also still quite young, having just turned 21 in Oct. For reference, Mavrik Bourque is a former linemate of his and absolutely tuning the AHL. Bourgault is 8 months younger. Bourque will turn 22 in early Jan.
I remember being impressed with how smooth Bourgault was in my limited viewing of the player.
If he is a trustworthy player and brings some offence, he can be a valuable piece in a cap world, I stand by that. This fanbase likes skewering the JPs and KYs, but you need those guys, too.
They passed over the best goalie in the draft gifted to them to pick another shiny forward they have now soured on and some highschool D that will never see the light of day?
It is what it is and it IS still too early to make a definitive statement. Neither player has made their NHL debut…
cowboy bill
December 27, 2023 9:42 am
You call it as you see it LT. But I don’t believe the majority of these picks were all up to Tyler Wright. I’m pretty sure it’s a group effort. Similar to an Oiler goalie who appears to let in a soft goal when it was the player who made a bad play with the puck a few touches before that set the whole thing in motion.
From some accounts, the GM is really the guy that makes 1st round picks but they generally rely on their scouts for day 2 picks.
This also lines up with some of the footage from Oilers Plus where Holland literally told Wright to “give him a name” for one of the later round picks.
jtblack
December 27, 2023 9:25 am
“I didn’t like his 2020 first-round decision.” –
In real time who would you have picked? or would you have tried to trade up or down?
Where did you have Wallstedt? These types of picks later in the 1st round only come around every decade. Goalies are voodoo but the risk-reward on Wallstedt can’t be passed up. Billy Guerin still has a grin on his face about being gifted Wallstedt. Please ask him about it if you get a opportunity from a original Alberta Oiler fan.
My list is often wrong. However, betting on high-end offense is the best plan. Holloway wasn’t the best high-end offense available. Dawson Mercer was the better bet.
But he sort of disproved that in his draft+1 season. Then he got hurt and hurt and hurt again, and the Oilers refused to play him regularly and in a stable spot in the lineup.
Why did the Oilers let him play with a broken wrist/thumb for Wisconsin in the college playoffs?
Why would the Oilers have any say over what Holloway did in college – he was drafted but, of course, being in college unsigned and the Oilers had zero authority over him.
I would presume the Oilers had no idea about any injury when Holloway played that one game with it.
There was no Edmonton Sun not until the late 70’s. Hockey knowledge had to be stored upstairs and seen with your eyeballs. Many a heated argument would ensue at the bar, lounge and work when it came to stats. There was no goggle to do your thinking in the terrible olden days.
I know this wasn’t meant for me but I believe Lt has mentioned Dawson Mercer a few times.
Kaiden Guhle has performed well, but the last thing Edm needed was another Left Shot D.
I’m just happy that Holloway is an actual NHL player & will contribute to the teams success this season.
Far too many mid round draft selections never graduate to the show, no matter the org.
The OIlers are playing $9 million dollars for Ekholm and Kulak. They could be paying Guhley and Broberg, $2 million to do the same thing.
It would be easier to re-sign McDavid and Draisaitl if one had a D of Nurse, Bouchard, Broberg, and Guhle set for the next decade.
Reja
December 27, 2023 9:23 am
Holland has drafted 25 players since jet-setting into Edmonton. How many of these 25 that he developed would fetch us a return of a 1st rounder in a trade? How can this be possible not one of the 25 players we drafted would garner even the 32nd pick. Maggie the monkey would of easily hit on a couple yet folks were shocked when Hollands OBC member Tyler Wright was terminated.
Holland overripens them until they are spoiled. He did this in Detroit. It didn’t matter when there was no cap since he could buy better quality 30-somethings. He got into cap hell later because of this.
When prospects are ready, one has to give them a shot to compete and displace a veteran, regardless of the level of the team.
The OIlers have seven D with Broberg. They could have a rotation amongst the five or six of them (load management for Ekholm, Ceci, and Kulak).
There is no reason for Lavoie not to have been given a legitimate shot. He is comparable to the stopgap veterans Holland has filled the bottom of the roster with.
Hamblin and Gagner and even Erne found a way to produce playing with each other.
I do think that Lavoie could help in the middle six but what did Lavoie do during his ice (or since he’s been back in Bako reverting to old inconsistencies) to earn a shot in the lineup not to mention up the lineup over any of these players?
I hope I’m wrong but I’ve been saying it for awhile that I believe Lavoie ship has sailed (personal) in E-Town. He’ll be dealt at the deadline in some sort of package for a reliable depth D-man.
Well, right now he has little, if any value. He cleared waivers and has probably reduced his value since then with his current play in Bako.
His only value in a trade is for another middling prospect who has also cleared waivers and can go straight to the minors – similar to Kostin/Samorukov last season
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 8:55 am
The Condors play tonight. We all know that Rodrigue started 3 games in 4 nights last Wed-Sat are was very good in aggregate – elite in the 3rd game after playing the night before and apx 4 hours of travel.
I think the plan was for Campbell to play that game but he was ill.
It will be very interesting to see who starts in net tonight. Presuming Jack is healthy, the goalie tonight is likely a big tell on the org’s current mind-set.
I presume its going to be Campbell but, of course, hope to be watching Rodrigue.
I don’t think they should call up Rodrigue now but I think he should get a real stretch of games as the starter or 1A – I’m talking like 75% of the starts. He’s never been given the opportunity/responsibility in the AHL and I think its the logical next step prior to an NHL call-up.
Let Rodrigue ride this development pop and play lots of games (as opposed to mainly sitting on the NHL bench and spot starting).
“… ill during the broadcast…” You mean he threw up on air?? Punctuation Al, punctuation!
OriginalPouzar
December 27, 2023 8:50 am
Under Tyler Wright, the Edmonton Oilers had a ‘shoot the moon’ mentality at the draft table. The scouting staff didn’t have many picks…..,
In response to a post about the Oilers not having any prospects at the World Juniors and how much of a failure that is, I took a quick look at which draft picks are WJC eligible and, wow, the Oilers only have 3 WJC eligible non-goalie player and, to be honest, two of them could have been in the tournament but for circumstances. Yeseyev would likely be on a Team Russia and Akey would have been in the conversation for team Canada.
It appears Oilers need a bona fide goalie to contend in the playoffs.
The current situation, rife with uncertainty each and every night will drain the team by playoffs, so can expect no more than last season.
Question: Will Oilers actually get that goalie?
If you think yes, press 1
if you think no, press 0
I think they need to upgrade the Ceci position the most. And get a RW for Draisaitl (maybe Holloway and/or McLeod) fix the top six. If it is both McLeod and Holloway, then the Oilers need a centre.
Kambeitz with a great job to negate the icing with the Henderson net empty, then tied up 2 player behind the net, it squirts free to Mckegg who center it to Caggiula who wrists it in to the empty net.
Final score, 3-1.
Rodrigue with 29 saves on 30 shots.
Truth be told, not a difficult 29 saves, not many high danger at all but he was solid and had no chance on the double deflection off the post that beat him.
who is most NHL ready?
We of course focus on prospects, but is it more likely we see Caggiula? Or Peterson?
“ready” does not really apply to older NHL tweeners.
All of the older players (Pickard, Gleason, Dineen, Hoefenmary, Kemp, Niemelainen, Caggiula, Malone, etc) are able to slide in for an NHL game or two. I don’t think Seth Griffith is anymore, but the Oilers pool of recall talent is large.
The potential to improve is nonexistent with these players, though.
Grubbe loses a defensive zone draw, back to the point for a one-timer and its tipped in front off the point and in.
No chance for Rodrigue as the shutout is lost on the 26th shot.
Beautiful goal by the Condors – a wonderful breakout pass (I think it was Broberg but can’t be sure), Grubbe zone entries, drops to Malone and heads to the net, Malone cross-seam down low to Caggiula who fires it in front and Grubbe scores.
On replay it went off Grubbe’s skate as he drove the front of the net – under review but it should be a good goal as he was in the process of stopping, not kicking.
Yup, good goal – 2-0 Condors with 7 to go.
Avs with the compete 3rd period collapse
Avs were up 4-0. 4-1 in 3rd and lost
And yet most of this blog is convinced they are the Avs of two years ago. One line team, something akin to the Ducks after that.
Fun fact after helping in that Arizona outburst Sean Durzi joins Iafollo and Vilardi in each having more points than Pierre Luc Dubois.
Holt saying that Petrov may be back this weekend – he’s missed a few weeks now with an (undisclosed, I think) injury.
Gagner isn’t on the trip (per Matty) – Coach said he’d be out short term prior the last game before the break.
I wonder if there is a jaw fracture here as opposed to just dental work?
Remember Kassian did a number on his jaw a few years back.
Condors flip the script and dominate the 2nd period but no more goals. Up 1-0 after 2 and outshooting Henderson 26-19 now.
Condors with a nice sleepy start through 15 minutes.
Grubbe and Wright force a neutral zone turnover to gain the zone – Wright with a pass from the side-boards to the front of the net but Grubbe misses it, it goes off his skate, off a Knight and right to Caggiula who buries it from the slot for a 1-0 lead.
Rodrigue with 12 saves so far.
Carter Savoie taking a shot off the leg while in the front of the net, he looked hurt at least a little coming off the ice. Henderson has their work boots on.
The trio of Larsson, Eberle and Yamo will pick up 2 goals and 1 assist against the mediocre Flames tonight.
A LITTLE banged up on the defence…..
Tulio/McKegg/Bourgault
Lavoie/Pederson/Giffith
Caggiula/Malone/Wright
Savoie/Grubbe/Kambeitz
Broberg/Kemp
Peters/Wanner
Corcoran//Benard
Rodrigue
Three plausible moves:
1) Trade a 2024 6th and 2025 3rd & Pickard for G Alex Lyon. Signed for 900K this year and next. Started playoff games for the FLA Panthers last spring before Bob took over. Good NHL numbers this season.
2) Cody Ceci, Ty Tullio, & 2024 2nd for Vladimir Tarasenko (50% ret). A RW for Draisaitl. Ceci goes home to Ottawa.
3) Brett Kulak, X Bourgault, & 2024 1st to Calgary for Rasmus Andersson. Broberg elevated. Calgary gets an LD to replace Hanifin and draft treasure to re-build.
Who takes the spot of Ceci? That’s a massive hole created for a rental player who may or may not add to the offence.
Three coaches have seen, evaluated and all of them have come to the same conclusion, Broberg isn’t winning any spot on the current roster.
moving Ceci & Kulak won’t move the needle.
I like where you’re going, but RA got absolutely exposed against us in the playoffs. I like his style (younger Radko Gudas) but question his effectiveness.
I like the Anderson idea, but he is their #1 D,and correct me if I am wrong, I think he is their top PP D, he plays big PK and EV minutes. I don’t know if getting him out of Calgary for that package is possible, but I like it.
Flames fans are very frustrated with him and his reluctance to shoot. They call him “Passmus”…
Spec reporting that Holloway is on the California trip where he will practice, but not play games.
Confirmed by Ryan Holt that Rodrigue gets the start tonight and, to me, THAT is telling.
Both Dineen and Hoeffenmayer are out with injury and both ECHL call-up d-men will play (Xaviar Benard and Connor Corcoran).
I was chatting with my nephew who was a good player drafted to the Dub. He decided two years ago to quit hockey. He got burnt out trying to get his hat in the ring I think, and also was a big kid but didn’t keep growing unfortunately and played D
His take on things was interesting. For one that this draft class is good but nowhere near last year. Says he’s played against both group’s top ranked players. We’ll see. The main thing he said was about development. There isn’t any or much from teams until you prove yourself first, at higher levels
Comments today about our young guys got me thinking about this. Players used to get drafted knowing how protect themselves or they wouldn’t make it to that point. Hockey is different now
Bro was getting lit up until recently. Savoie getting banged up every game according to OP. Holloway constantly getting injured. It seems that some energy should be spent teaching players that obviously don’t know how, to play in a way to stay healthy
Not to change their games but there are ways to go into battles, how to be stronger on your skates. Body position, angles etc. When Holloway got hurt this time I was thinking what’s he doing, he was off balance and looked like he was falling or something and got hurt. It looked weird and ended badly for him
Maybe they do talk about it, and did before the new coaches, but the times change and what’s needed does with it. Players now have great skill early and most skate well, but the physical aspect and what they know coming in doesn’t seem as good as it was at least for more skilled players. Slafkovsky was getting rocked and hurt in his NHL start, even at 230. Tough guys and players who are mostly physical of course get it
I hope Jackson does what he said he wanted to, best of everything. Perhaps the first round prospects are shy on offense, so it makes sense to invest in training them even at the NHL level and maximizing whatever they have. It’s said the NHL isn’t a development league but that’s not really true. All players keep developing for years after they make it. Not everyone is Connor and can make changes mostly on their own off season
Curlock wrote on Holloway and sees him as being a smart player still feeling things out, but with a lot of potential. One upside of the forwards being a bit shy offensively is that they remain affordable for a top heavy team. Forming them into something helpful is far better than just losing them, because they don’t just become what you wanted, as has happened so many times before
Nephew is also impressed with the US development program. He sees the US passing us. I hope not
I know quite a few players who went through the USNDP, it is impressive. Kids as young as 10 are identified and it starts with being named to their state’s all star team. One of my sons played for Team Connecticut way back in the day when the program was first started and then one year he was not named. When I called the program administrator for an explanation he put me in touch with the USNDP. At the time my kid was a Canadian citizen (now US citizen) and told me they would not waste resources training a kid who would not play for the national team.
In any event, I too am very impressed with the USNDP and believe they will pass us. They are investing huge resources. Nothing but the best.
Great story and interesting comment. My son was an undersized d-man who could skate, defend and make that initial breakout pass like no one’s business. Had great coaching who also spent time teaching him how to protect himself (back when contact started when you were a pee wee). Played into college before deciding he’d had enough.
I do wonder if now, putting off body contact until your older is hurting development because you’re not taught to protect yourself.
Thanks. My nephew wasn’t an offensive type, but good all round. He was also mean, just his nature. He played like an NHL D as a kid, saw the box a lot! I don’t think it worked as well for him as the other kids were getting bigger
It seems from watching the young NHL players a lot of them don’t protect themselves well. Of course there is always a learning curve, always has been. It’s not only in taking hits, the board play is often so awkward. That’s a learned skill
Holloways’ latest hurt he was so off balance trying to pursue, weirdly lifts his leg and loses an edge and into the boards. I remember how Messier skated with his head and torso up, so hard to knock off balance. Not that many are like him, but you could work on body position for those not showing it. Not getting knocked over and not taking big hits is a health skill
Most kids that see the NHL now aren’t former pond hockey players. They are academy, or program kids like in the US or Europe. If they aren’t learning these things there anymore, teach them in the A or NHL for those too good for the A. Why not? It just makes your team better. At one time perhaps they had to teach skills more, now maybe they have to teach the non puck side of things more
As soon as they changed allowing hitting from peewee to bantam, I told anyone that would listen, it was a terrible idea. It gave kids two extra years of continued habit of carrying the puck with their head down. That two extra years of forming habits makes it that much tougher to break bad ones.
As a smaller player, I had to learn quickly to keep my head up. If I had two extra years of being devoid of danger, I’m sure I could’ve been seriously injured later on. But, learning to keep my head up earlier in my career helped me avoid serious injury. I can honestly say I never once got rocked because my head was down.
And yeah, our coaches taught us how to take hits. We got an extra two years of learning that skill.
Very good and interesting post – thanks.
I wonder if some of the gaps in learning how to protect yourself are related to all the zone/academy type teams that hockey has moved to (here in BC anyway). So now all the “good” kids from say 13 or 14 are making a team because of their high level skill be it skating or shooting, or they grow big early. As a result players don’t get those games against the teams who are less skilled but use physicality to win.
Sure there’s still hitting but I don’t see many “keep your head up games”. I’m not saying it’s a bad thing, obviously player safety for kids is #1, but when you’re 19 and you go into a corner with Gudas or Trouba they maybe aren’t really aware of how hard the big dogs bite.
Some of it is the player’s own awareness certainly, but I see this as a thing teams should be interested in coaching. Like every aspect of pro hockey
It’s a non cap freebie and advantage over teams that haven’t noticed what players today need to learn, and there has always been something but it changes as minor hockey changes
Also investing in the young goalies. If they are drafted or in the system give them everything to grow. Maximizing what you have is the cheapest way to a stronger org
Great post. It’s late to comment, but I wanted to add that while I can appreciate the club, academy, programs purpose to develop at a young age, I find it non beneficial for all round kids .
An example, my hockey son loved playing other sports, including soccer. He passed on spring hockey league to play soccer.
But the best soccer clubs would not let the hockey kids in because they would not stick with the club for the indoor season. The summer tier 2 teams were often better than tier 1, due to hockey kids.
Anyway, sports take commitment, I just like to see kids enjoy several sports as the chance of going professional is very slim.
I just read (I think it was on Hockey Writers) a proposed trade of Jake Guentzel to the Islanders for three pieces. Intriguing to me, I wondered about the Oilers getting into it to solidify their top 6 F… What would you say to Guentzel in at 40% retained, for Bourgault, Connor Brown, Brett Kulak, a 2025 4th and 2026 2nd?Still leaves 2 picks in the first 3 rounds for the next three years, Gives Broberg a shot at 3LD… any takers?
Why would Pitt make that trade for the hot garbage you have going the other way? 🙂
Someone mentioned Saros, I’ve always thought he would be perfect for the Oil. Almost the same contract situation as Ekholm. Would a 1st /Campbell / prospect get this done?
I know Nashville is ahead of us in the standings, but ya never know?!
Why would NSH take Campbell — who’s floundering in the AHL — for one of the best goalies in the league?
Hard no from Nashville. If the 1st is even enough to take on Campbell, the rest is Saros for a prospect? NOT going to happen a that price.
maybe the:
2024 1st
2025 1st
2026 1st
2027 1st
Broberg
Bourgault
Campbell
Trotz should be fired and sent to manage a Pee Wee team if he takes that trade!!!
A 1st and a top prospect doesn’t even get rid of the Campbell contract let alone the acquisition cost for Saros.
I can’t remember the exact name of the person, Cody something, but OilersNation had him on as a guest on one of their pods late last week and this guy raved about LaChance – said he’s seen about 12-15 BU games this year and thinks the Oilers have a diamond in rough here.
Some random conversation starters on a quiet Dec 27 day around here;
Would love to get Gibson.
+1 for everything but your suggestion “to empty the tank for a Gibson (+3.3 GSAA).”
Reason being, Gibson is poised to hit his annual skid (and I concede you said a Gibson). He does this every year. ArmchairGM blesses us with the splits often, and yet folks around here always forget how consistently Gibson fades early in the new year. Annually.
If we’re to empty the tank, as you say, it had better be for a Sorokin/Oettinger/Shesterkin/Saros type. Normally I’d say Hellebuyck/Bobrovsky being famous and good for a long time (Guide and Record Book types) but if we’re going to sell the farm for a goalie, he’d better be elite for the foreseeable future.
Sure but none of Sorokin, Oettinger or Shesterkin are even remotely available and if you take trotz at his word, neither is Saros. Helly was just signed and Bob is the undisputed #1 on a team with Cup aspirations. They simple aren’t available. Gibson is likely available.
ABSOLUTELY some concerns but I’d argue most think he’d spike getting out of Anaheim. But I concur there’s some serious risk.
What’s the risk though? He’s a legit starter. So maybe he’s kinda avg. Maybe he’s really good though. He will be a functional goalie, unlike Campbell.
They were simply named as comparable talents to look for in a Hail Mary acquisition. I’m well aware they’re not likely to be available for less than Leon, which is a non-starter for me.
I just don’t trust Gibson. I know ANA is a tire fire, but AGM’s regular posts about his annual breakdowns have me spooked.
Not faulting your logic, but I’d be interested to see the splits for the coaching change.
Basically everyone was terribad to start the year, so no surprise Stu’s numbers suffered.
Totally agree with all 3 points:
Realistically, there is not enough cap space to get a 1A goalie and a top 4 RHD Ceci replacement. Also, none of the top 10 NHL goalies (the guys who would be tried and true difference making, game stealing goalies) are available … no Nashville is not going to trade us Saros at the deadline unless they have an epic collapse from now to then.
By next season, if Rodrigue keeps tracking well, he may get the call to backup Skinner. Campbell will be bought out. Until then, Pickard has done noting to suggest that he can’t handle backup duties.
So then the priority for this year should be to find a RHD equivalent of Ekholm to upgrade Ceci. Looking at the bottom half of the league standings, is it possible to identify a player like that?
The issue with Ceci is first he does have first pair puck skills. He’s ok when he’s making an effort which seems to have amped up under Coffey. He also doesn’t have first pair boots which may be why he has trouble defending entries
Given Nurse isn’t naturally a good puck mover either, not an ideal pairing. Nurse has carried lesser partners always, but his game would probably take a step if he had proper support. Bouchard stylistically is a better partner but isn’t there now. I think Ek could carry Ceci as Ek is a good puck mover, good at everything. They would be a shut down pair. Maybe KK and Coffey end up there
I can’t see an upgrade without pain long term. They can’t really afford another expensive D so likely a rental. Especially given the Campbell situation which will cost assets or cap or both
I know – this is what I keep coming back to … how do you upgrade the RHD partner for Nurse in a way that is feasible under the cap … and who might possibly have that asset for sale by the trade deadline?
It is do-able – you move Kulak for non-roster assets which saves apx $1.9MM on the cap and, if you get the flames to retain half on Rasmus A. or the Canes half on Pesce, for example, you get pretty close.
Presuming the Oilers are out of LTIR in the next few months, they will accrue some cap space and, the later in the year, the less actual projected cap hit is acquired (if they stay out of LTIR).
Unlike Hollamd and Treliving Conroy is old school he’s not trading with the Oilers unless it’s ridiculously one-sided in his favour.
Niggling? We have two years of playoffs that Ceci against elites in the playoffs isn’t remotely good enough.
I also don’t see 71 as a long term solution at top 6 LW. He’s not aggressive enough offensively, and players rarely become different players in that way. Maybe he’s a rare one
Does he have to be aggresive? Is Nuge?
Nuge isn’t aggressive, but he goes to the hard areas. He’s not physical, but he’s willing to dig in and disrupt play.
The balance thing keeps coming up for me. I want the team to be able to play a physical game, but I think you have to be smart about it. Connor for regular Oiler forwards is third in Hits/60. Kane is way too high
I don’t want Connor hitting. He is the team. Finish checks ok, but he needs to be healthy going into the playoffs if they make it, and want any chance of making any noise. Leon is 15 pounds heavier and last on the team in hits so far. Connor isn’t built for it either. Woody started this with his sowing seeds nonsense last playoffs. I get that he felt they got roughed up the previous playoffs, but I didn’t like the message. The Oilers aren’t built to be a constantly physical team up front
Vegas won by ignoring the Panthers antics and attempts to drag it into the gutter. They were happy to oblige the Oilers, probably because it took the Oilers away from their strengths. Distracted them, like it used to in the 80’s when Sheahy could single handedly get the Oilers into lizard brain, away from skilled hockey, the Flames only chance. Vegas said they thought they could win it 5v5, the Oilers should have been completely focused on that part of the game, any distractions could only hurt that. Pick your spots. We’ll see if KK changes it for us
Kane is a power forward yes, but throwing so many hits means he is vulnerable to getting hurt, and he is. He’s 15th for forwards in the league, and the only skill player in the top 30. He is not good when he’s hurt, and they need him to be at his best. He needs to be told to tone it down, not stop being a power forward, but to pick his spots better. The only other top 6 forwards in the top 50 hits are B Tkachuk and T Wilson, both bigger than him and under 30 YO
Erne leads the forwards at 18.63 / 60, and so he should, that’s his job. Then we have Lavoie 13.16, Kane 11.99 and Holloway 9.78. Hmmm. Maybe Lavoie should have been asked to try to play hockey first, use his skill, and then add the physical as he got used to the league. Holloway also needs to focus on scoring first because that is his biggest weakness right now and has his career in jeopardy
Kane and Holloway got hurt. Even if they didn’t get hurt hitting this time, if you play that rambunctiously or recklessly it’s going to happen. I remember this Taylor Hall guy. Then there is a big drop off to Janmark at 3.94, then Connor 3.92. So Janmark gets it. Drai is at 1.09, Nuge 1.35, Brown 1.91. The only top 6 forward on the Knights that is top 5 in hits is Barbashev. But he’s Russian, different breed. On the league leading Canucks, of the top 6 only Miller is top 5 hits, but he’s 218, he’d be the second heaviest Oiler, and he’s not even in the top 50 league wide
I want bottom 6 forwards being the physical presence. The less skilled D. If they get hurt the team doesn’t reel. Two of the Oiler forwards are bottom 6, three now that Brown lost his spot not that he hits much, and one has hardly played
This is not how I would construct a team, or what I would want them doing. The lower down the roster, the more you add physically, makes more sense. Of the D Ek is first, Nurse third. The two best D. We need them healthy. Bouch doesn’t need to hit as much but should carry more weight there at least finishing checks. Ceci has half the hits Nurse has. He should be doing more and Nurse less. Hedman is last in hits for D in Tampa. He probably knows if he’s hurt the team is hooped, it’s happened. I’m sure Cooper knows
The top end can hit more in the playoffs if it’s needed, but if not try to stay as healthy as possible. Thank goodness KK is playing Connor strategically on the PK. All we need is him blocking point shots when others can obviously do it just fine
I think his injury history since he was drafted has played an issue in his development and in his offensive game at the pro level. Here is hoping that we are close to done with that being a story line for this player.
If, at the end of the day, he becomes a solid middle six player, that’s just fine, more than fine if its at center. We (or at least I) have thought that McLeod would be that 3C for the next decade and while that is likely still the plan, there is a crack there for maybe Holloway to play some center while we see what McLeod looks like on the wing.
I think 3C/middle 6 winger can be options for both these players.
Health, Savoie needs to be able to stay healthy to gain tracation. He seems to take a beating every game and, even last game, was down for a while.
I agree with LT here, I think the AHL game is starting to slow down for him a bit and he’s starting to be more dynamic on a nightly basis. If he was continue to play nightly, we might have the start of a pop here.
He had a very solid development year last year and I had him as a dark-horse for a late season call-up this season. His early injury likely precludes that (along with the organization’s opinion that young players are prohibitive of winning cup) but he’s had a VERY good start to his season as far as production, tenacity, etc.
He’s been playing with Bourgault and McKegg on what I would deem the 2nd line and they are also part of the PP2 unit.
When did the organization make such a broad, sweeping statement? The inexperience of Holloway, Hamblin, Desharnais and Skinner sitting on the roster stands in stark contrast to such an opinion, if they did express such.
When he expressed that Lavoie couldn’t make the team because “we don’t have time for growing pains”.
I really like the Holloway selection. Yes his draft season stats were underwhelming, but remember his splits showed meaningful progression in the second half of that season.
If he can stay healthy, I think he’ll be in the league for a long time based on his skating ability and willingness to drive the net.
Isn’t he always on IR?
Asking for a friend.
This is Holloway’s Draft +4 season & for the fourth year in a row he is dealing with a significant injury. It’s been a horror story to this point.
He has played centre all of his life, and they are converting him to a winger. He never had to learn to protect himself along the boards. He is learning the hard way. You know, maybe they could coach him a bit. Maybe is would be best left at centre.
Let me get this straight, the Oilers management and coaches are at fault for Holloway’s injury history because they made him play wing and he has to near the boards more?
Of note, his major injury in college came while playing center.
He also played wing his first year in college.
Two of his injuries, the wrist/thumb and the current were him “hurting himself”.
You have to admire Oilers for constantly drafting injured juniors. It takes guts to play poker, constantly betting on a four card flush in draw poker; or an inside straight.
update: in poker this is guaranteed to lose strategy. A pair of 8’s has more power than Ace/King/ Queen/ Ten/ Nine – all cards spades aside from the ten.
I don’t think there were any notable injuries until after he was drafted.
Maybe they should put him back at C and start looking to him as the 3C solution and move McLeod
I hope he doesn’t come from the same glass factory as Kelfbom.
“The Greatest Ability is Reliability”
– saying goes something like that
Perhaps the solution to the 3C dilemma and keeping Holloway off IR is having him play 3C…
X being a middle six with PK after being picked in the 20’s isn’t good enough? Johnston is showing to be the pick but nobody after is in the range of ‘shoot the moon’ until Knies or Moser a full round later.
Lots of story to tell
Agreed, but two seasons of mid-level AHL scoring IS a tell. He has 50 games to go. We’ll see.
I agree with Pretendergast.
Middle six winger who can contribute offensively, PK, and never play on the PP is a valuable piece.
I do think the Oilers futzed his development, maybe they’ll play him in a feature role with their best AHL players going forward. I will reserve judgement until that happens.
Saying “he can PK” as a prospect is a nice way of saying “he better be able to PK because there isn’t enough offense to be a top-6”. Especially as a winger. Connor Brown can PK but he has zero goals and is a healthy scratch.
Remember too, this narrative that he’s a 200 foot player who just needs the offense to come is relatively new too. He was drafted to be an offensive weapon and not much else.
“An exceptional stick handler with buttery-soft hands and a quick-strike mentality, Bourgault has to be in the running for the flashiest wingers available in the draft.” -Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst
This isn’t Dylan Holloway. Holloway always had the speed and motor to be a Warren Foegele at worst. Bourgault is more like an Eberle or Nuge with his skill set. Subtlety, smarts, skills. The highway is littered with offense-only players who can’t generate offense at the highest levels and then try and become “200 foot players”.
It reminds me of that protoypical bench player in baseball, the “good defensive catcher” which is code for “can’t hit a lick”.
Imperfect analogy. With effective pitch framing, game calling, and limiting the running game, a catcher can bring tons of value without hitting much at all.
Most distressing is that the organization appears to have given up on his being able to make a difference with a pure skill center like Lane Pederson. That’s a tell, too.
I recall that part of the report on Bourgault also mention high-level to elite results in break-out passes from the D-zone and same regarding forechecking and take-aways.
He brings a lot of what KY brought in Bakersfield, without the physicality & just pure aggressiveness.
If I recall, Yamo was generally the best Condors forward in his time there and he was deployed on the 1st line with vet, aggressive and skilled AHL forwards. Malone was his Center and often Gambardella (who was a top-notch NCAA forechecker) as the LW. I think Gambardella’s best AHL years coincided with his time on KY’s line.
In Bourgault’s case it seems that his most productive AHL stints have been with either Lavoie or Tullio as his linemates. I think he absolutely needs to play with an effective Center, and in California, Pederson would be ideal. I don’t know why they don’t have that figured out there.
So why, exactly does/did, an ECHLer get prime time minutes on the 1st line over the sophomore 1st rounder?
Red Line said he had “fine hockey sense in all three zones” and I believe that’s true.
The OIlers minor league coaches apparently don’t talk to the Oilers development coaches who don’t talk to the Oilers scouts and vice versa.
There is no plan for any player anywhere. Everyone seems to be operating in silos.
Development coaches?
This is an argument I can see having some merit. This absolutely was a thing with Yamo. I remember LT and other AHL-o-philes talking about how much he created at the AHL and doggone it, they were right when it carried on to the NHL.
Now I don’t watch XB so can’t say but is forechecking and turning over countless pucks (even if they aren’t leading to goals) really a glaring strength for XB? Again, my image of him is more of a Eberle/Nuge type of smooth/skill combo.
It is poor coaching NOT to recognize that an all-around talent like Bourgault needs more opportunity to demonstrate that all-around talent, than a prospect who has a signature skill.
The team has long soured on prospects with good ability because they didn’t light it up right away. Everyone must be Kurri! Anderson! Must be the late 70’s drafts that messed their thinking up, and it’s not gotten better since
Connor Brown is different in that this year he PKs and brings zero offence.
I think it’s too early to tell on Bourgault. He isn’t playing a feature role and that’s at least partially on the org.
He’s also still quite young, having just turned 21 in Oct. For reference, Mavrik Bourque is a former linemate of his and absolutely tuning the AHL. Bourgault is 8 months younger. Bourque will turn 22 in early Jan.
I remember being impressed with how smooth Bourgault was in my limited viewing of the player.
If he is a trustworthy player and brings some offence, he can be a valuable piece in a cap world, I stand by that. This fanbase likes skewering the JPs and KYs, but you need those guys, too.
When can we stop pretending this was a good pick?
They passed over the best goalie in the draft gifted to them to pick another shiny forward they have now soured on and some highschool D that will never see the light of day?
Okay, Oilers.
Just keep Oiling.
You can criticize the decision itself.
But the prospect chosen has nothing to do with who selected him.
Two separate things.
Would’ve, could’ve, should’ve.
It is what it is and it IS still too early to make a definitive statement. Neither player has made their NHL debut…
You call it as you see it LT. But I don’t believe the majority of these picks were all up to Tyler Wright. I’m pretty sure it’s a group effort. Similar to an Oiler goalie who appears to let in a soft goal when it was the player who made a bad play with the puck a few touches before that set the whole thing in motion.
He and Ken Holland are responsible for the picks. There’s no quarter given.
If your head scout is just a figurehead that’s a ringer at the golf tournaments then the jig was up once Action Jackson arrived.
And now it would appear that the GM is just a figure head. I would say Action Jackson is in a very comfortable position.
Holland is still accountable and doesn’t get a free pass while he’s recieving his 6 figure a week cheques as our current G.M.
From some accounts, the GM is really the guy that makes 1st round picks but they generally rely on their scouts for day 2 picks.
This also lines up with some of the footage from Oilers Plus where Holland literally told Wright to “give him a name” for one of the later round picks.
“I didn’t like his 2020 first-round decision.” –
In real time who would you have picked? or would you have tried to trade up or down?
I had Dawson Mercer No. 10 and he was available. I had Holloway No. 25.
https://lowetide.ca/2020/10/06/here-comes-the-sun-2020-draft-edition/
I had Holloway 25, Tullio 53, Savoie 56 and Berezkin 122. I liked the draft, but not the first-round selection.
Where did you have Wallstedt? These types of picks later in the 1st round only come around every decade. Goalies are voodoo but the risk-reward on Wallstedt can’t be passed up. Billy Guerin still has a grin on his face about being gifted Wallstedt. Please ask him about it if you get a opportunity from a original Alberta Oiler fan.
I had Wallsted No. 19. Bourgault was No. 14 on my list. I had several names above both of them still on my board at the time Edmonton chose.
https://lowetide.ca/2021/07/23/here-comes-the-sun-2021-draft-edition/
So your list was wrong, too.
It happens.
My list is often wrong. However, betting on high-end offense is the best plan. Holloway wasn’t the best high-end offense available. Dawson Mercer was the better bet.
But he sort of disproved that in his draft+1 season. Then he got hurt and hurt and hurt again, and the Oilers refused to play him regularly and in a stable spot in the lineup.
Why did the Oilers let him play with a broken wrist/thumb for Wisconsin in the college playoffs?
Why would the Oilers have any say over what Holloway did in college – he was drafted but, of course, being in college unsigned and the Oilers had zero authority over him.
I would presume the Oilers had no idea about any injury when Holloway played that one game with it.
I see you had Cossa at #18. I wonder if Wallstedt being rated by most scouts after Cossa did indeed take some shine off of him.
I don’t know that Wallstedt was behind Cossa on other lists. My list had them close.
Google is pretty nifty.
Source:
https://lowetide.ca/2021/07/23/here-comes-the-sun-2021-draft-edition/
Thank you. Back in the day all we had was the Edmonton Journal and its sports page which arrived at 3:30 in the afternoon Monday>Saturday.
I especially liked when the Sun would print the boxcars of every team’s roster. What was that, like once a month?
There was no Edmonton Sun not until the late 70’s. Hockey knowledge had to be stored upstairs and seen with your eyeballs. Many a heated argument would ensue at the bar, lounge and work when it came to stats. There was no goggle to do your thinking in the terrible olden days.
Every Tuesday.
I know this wasn’t meant for me but I believe Lt has mentioned Dawson Mercer a few times.
Kaiden Guhle has performed well, but the last thing Edm needed was another Left Shot D.
I’m just happy that Holloway is an actual NHL player & will contribute to the teams success this season.
Far too many mid round draft selections never graduate to the show, no matter the org.
The OIlers are playing $9 million dollars for Ekholm and Kulak. They could be paying Guhley and Broberg, $2 million to do the same thing.
It would be easier to re-sign McDavid and Draisaitl if one had a D of Nurse, Bouchard, Broberg, and Guhle set for the next decade.
Holland has drafted 25 players since jet-setting into Edmonton. How many of these 25 that he developed would fetch us a return of a 1st rounder in a trade? How can this be possible not one of the 25 players we drafted would garner even the 32nd pick. Maggie the monkey would of easily hit on a couple yet folks were shocked when Hollands OBC member Tyler Wright was terminated.
Holland overripens them until they are spoiled. He did this in Detroit. It didn’t matter when there was no cap since he could buy better quality 30-somethings. He got into cap hell later because of this.
When prospects are ready, one has to give them a shot to compete and displace a veteran, regardless of the level of the team.
The OIlers have seven D with Broberg. They could have a rotation amongst the five or six of them (load management for Ekholm, Ceci, and Kulak).
There is no reason for Lavoie not to have been given a legitimate shot. He is comparable to the stopgap veterans Holland has filled the bottom of the roster with.
Those veterans haven’t provided much. What veterans?
Hamblin and Gagner and even Erne found a way to produce playing with each other.
I do think that Lavoie could help in the middle six but what did Lavoie do during his ice (or since he’s been back in Bako reverting to old inconsistencies) to earn a shot in the lineup not to mention up the lineup over any of these players?
I hope I’m wrong but I’ve been saying it for awhile that I believe Lavoie ship has sailed (personal) in E-Town. He’ll be dealt at the deadline in some sort of package for a reliable depth D-man.
Well, right now he has little, if any value. He cleared waivers and has probably reduced his value since then with his current play in Bako.
His only value in a trade is for another middling prospect who has also cleared waivers and can go straight to the minors – similar to Kostin/Samorukov last season
The Condors play tonight. We all know that Rodrigue started 3 games in 4 nights last Wed-Sat are was very good in aggregate – elite in the 3rd game after playing the night before and apx 4 hours of travel.
I think the plan was for Campbell to play that game but he was ill.
It will be very interesting to see who starts in net tonight. Presuming Jack is healthy, the goalie tonight is likely a big tell on the org’s current mind-set.
I presume its going to be Campbell but, of course, hope to be watching Rodrigue.
I don’t think they should call up Rodrigue now but I think he should get a real stretch of games as the starter or 1A – I’m talking like 75% of the starts. He’s never been given the opportunity/responsibility in the AHL and I think its the logical next step prior to an NHL call-up.
Let Rodrigue ride this development pop and play lots of games (as opposed to mainly sitting on the NHL bench and spot starting).
One step at a time.
Ryan Holt mentioned Campbell was slated to start but was ill during the broadcast.
“… ill during the broadcast…” You mean he threw up on air?? Punctuation Al, punctuation!
In response to a post about the Oilers not having any prospects at the World Juniors and how much of a failure that is, I took a quick look at which draft picks are WJC eligible and, wow, the Oilers only have 3 WJC eligible non-goalie player and, to be honest, two of them could have been in the tournament but for circumstances. Yeseyev would likely be on a Team Russia and Akey would have been in the conversation for team Canada.
Akey I certainly view as a shoot the moon pick as well. He would’ve been very fun to watch in this tournament
True, unfortunate but I see him as a veritable lock for next years team.
Hopefully he can remain healthy & kick out the jams, as the kids say
No, only old people say kick out the jams.
Are kids saying that?
Kick Out the Jams is the debut album by American proto-punk band MC5. It was released in February 1969, through Elektra Records
Are these kids in their 50’s?
Maybe he’s 80 and 50-somethings are kids to him.
I’ve never even heard of this term, lol.
You have never heard the term “kick out the jams”? Do you live under a rock?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfKhvzUdJoM
a blast from the past.