Phil Kemp made his NHL debut on the weekend. He is the latest USHL draftee by Edmonton to make the show, following Matt Greene, Jeff Petry, Caleb Jones and Matej Blumel. Kemp is the fourth 2017 Oilers pick to make it (Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner, Dmitri Samorukov).
I don’t know how much of an NHL future he’ll have, people talk about his boots a lot. I can tell you that he’s a RH blue and they have higher value, he’s a smart player and he won’t have a major cap hit for many moons. Mathieu Roy made the NHL and he was Super Dave Osborne on skates, so we’ll see how it plays out.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Is Oilers forward Warren Foegele earning another contract?
- Lowetide: Where do the Oilers need to improve depth before the NHL trade deadline?
- DNB: Oilers are back as a Western Conference power
- Lowetide: Could this be the ultimate Edmonton Oilers season?
- DNB: Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers complete 2023-24 prospects update
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
SPLITS OF BAKERSFIELD
I like to monitor the second half of the season (post-Christmas) because there’s often a spike (more in a minute). Here are the 2023-24 Condors, broken down by forwards and then defense/goalies.
Among forwards, Raphael Lavoie and Dylan Holloway are the class of the group. I think Holloway is likely to have the better career, he is fast and has size. I worry about his injuries. Lavoie has an extreme skill (his shot is heavy, release is Louisiana Lightning) but foot speed is an issue. He could have a Patrick Maroon career, but could also have a Peter Laframboise career or a Kim Issel career.
Xavier Bourgault is a first-round pick and he isn’t scoring, although forechecking and drawing penalties remain strengths. He badly needs to find the range offensively. Carter Savoie appears to be turning the corner in the AHL, we’ll have to monitor his performance over the next two months (there’s like a game every two days through mid-March).
Philip Broberg is the class of the group and I do think he’s going to establish himself as a big part of an NHL defense. Olivier Rodrigue is having a strong season, Max Wanner playing a larger role than most shutdown defensemen in the AHL at age 20. Phil Kemp is in a group (Ben Gleason, Noel Hoefenmanyer, Cam Dineen, Markus Niemelainen) who are NHL capable. Kemp is RH, that’s an advantage.
SNAPSHOTS AND TRENDS
One day years ago, Kyle Brodziak had a fantastic training camp and preseason with the Edmonton Oilers. It was September of 2007 and he tore it up. Here’s what I wrote in December 2007:
- In any given season, there are probably 50 guys in the AHL who are about where Kyle Brodziak was this time last year. Solid minor leaguers, fringe NHL players who lack that extra gear, have 15-20 home run power but can only play LF, RF or 1B. Walk enough for a decent OBP but hit .267 instead of .295 at Triple A and get passed over for callup when injuries hit.
- In the summertime I wrote looks to me like he’s the new Rem Murray. Brodziak is the highest ranking “future role player” on my list, but he’s earned it. Good size and strength and he’s coachable. Limited upside but I think he’s a player.
- His move from 15th overall prospect in the summer to to 6th overall this winter is a leap, but Brodziak earned it by working very hard to glose the gap between “fringe NHL player” and “NHL regular.” How did he do it?
- Brodziak spent the summer working on strength and conditioning, and on the night of September 17, 2007 he gained clearance from names like Marc Pouliot, Jean Francois Jacques and Patrick Thoresen. Coach MacT that night: “That’s the closest you’ll get to a perfect game. He wasn’t in the wrong position all night. Made great plays with the puck, scored two goals, had a beautiful shorthanded assist, big block at the end. There’s nothing he didn’t do tonight. He looks faster and stronger and maybe the most important difference for him is mentally he’s ready to stay. And it looks like he’s made the decision that he’s staying. That was a hell of a game.”
I caught Brodziak’s progress as it happened, but looking back I think there was evidence in his 2006-07 AHL season. That’s why I look at the splits. I think the numbers spike that happens after Christmas indicates two things: First, the player is having more success, the AHL game is slowing down and he’s able to make more plays. Second, and this happens all the time and will happen with this edition of the Condors, the coach begins to see the player in a different light. Let’s look at the Brodziak splits from 2006-07:
- Pre-Christmas: 29 games, 8-15-23 (.79 pts-game)
- Post-Christmas: 33 games, 16-17-33 (1.00 pts-game)
He scored more on the power play and posted a SH goal in the second half, too. Brodziak was growing as a player before that training camp, the stories built around him in the fall of 2007 helped explain the success. However, we’re looking for the genesis, not the Leviticus.
In later years, we have access to even more of the story. In real time, I was able to trumpet the development of Evan Bouchard as an NHL-ready defenseman. The Oilers still slow-played him, but by the second half of the 2019-20 season the young man was rolling.
- Pre-Christmas: 27, 3-12-15 (.56 pts-game) EV goal share 18-29 (38 pct)
- Post-Christmas: 27, 4-17-21 (.78 pts-game) EV goal share 23-22 (51 pct)
Bouchard didn’t get a regular gig in the NHL until 2021-22, and didn’t emerge as a top-pairing blue until the arrival of Mattias Ekholm as his partner. The talent has clearly been there all along. The minor league numbers were screaming at us post-Christmas 2019.
That’s why these things matter. So when you look at the numbers above, and notice Carter Savoie stepping up, know that it could matter. He needs to build on it, same as Brodziak in 2006-07.
Kemp is a bit of a different item, because offense isn’t his forte. However, he has improved in that area over his career. Here are his annual numbers, including even-strength goal share.
I love these stories. It’s a big part of why I’m a fan. Blame Larry Mavety’s coaches. I waited his whole career for a game that never came. I mean, he did too, but I was the real victim. 🙂 You keep working, Phil Kemp. Godspeed.
- 2020-21: 12, 0-1-1 (.08 pts-game) EV goal share 7-5 (58 pct)
- 2021-22: 55, 3-6-9 (.16 pts-game) EV goal share 29-25 (54 pct)
- 2022-23: 71, 6-15-21 (.30 pts-game) EV goal share 51-41 (55 pct)
- 2023-24: 26, 0-5-5 (.19 pts-game) EV goal share 17-12 (59 pct)
Kemp has been quality for the Condors in his four seasons. His even-strength goal share (104-83, 56 percent) over those four years makes him better than the rest of the Bakersfield blue. The Condors are 53 percent even-strength goal share when Kemp is off the ice. Will he get there, make the NHL as a regular? Don’t know. I do know he’s been there. No one can take that away. Ever. That’s a helluva deal.
A busy show today, noon to 2 on Sports 1440. We’ll chat about the Oilers 10-game winning streak, why it has special significance to this group, and why this team needed patience early. Jason Gregor will join us at 1:20, we’ll chat NFL playoffs (will the Bills game ever get played?) and look ahead to the Toronto Maple Leafs visit tomorrow night. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Sounds like:
1) Niemo will be back tomorrow
2) The goalies will split the back to backs.
It’s been over 20 years since we’ve had a Latvian player on the roster. Jack straight-up for Elvis.
Why would Columbus do that?
Oilers toss in a 3rd and a 4th pick?
Why would Columbus do that?
I think the add would be a first round pick plus a prospect.
The negative value on Merzlikin’s contract is nowhere near what it is on Campbell’s.
At the the time why would you trade Hall for Larsson straight-up?
I am not sure people understand PDO (especially me). Teams do not always revert to the mean within a particular season. Further, good teams often have high PDOs. Blindly faulting teams for having a high PDO does not really make sense to me. Someone, please educate me.
2023 Vegas: regular season PDO 1.013 (4th); playoff PDO 1.065 (1st)
2022 Colorado: regular season PDO 1.014 (4th); playoff PDO 0.997 (10th)
2021 Tamp Bay: regular season PDO 1.005 (11th); playoff PDO 1.028 (1st)
I would agree with that. Good teams generally have good PDOs. When a team has a PDO that is like 2-3 deviations higher than than the mean that is where you know things are wonky.
For instance, the Canucks shooting percentage right now is bonkers. Very low chamce they sustain that for the rest of the season and the playoffs.
2-3 sigmas seems like a lot. What is the kurtosis of a PDO distribution?
The standard deviation of PDOs across the league this morning is 0.0164, with an average of 1.000 as you’d expect.
3 standard deviations above the mean would be a 1.049 PDO.
At 1.051, the Canucks today appear to be slightly greater than 3 standard deviations above than the mean.
Seems that Bank Shot was actually underestimating with the 2-3 deviations comment.
Wowzers! Thank you, JP. And I don’t doubt that you are right, I made my comment because I didn’t know either the Canucks’ team shooting percentage nor the team SH percentages of the rest of the League. It’s not something I normally look up. Save percentage on the other hand is fairly easy and common to look at.
But I would like to ask, how did you derive the standard deviation? It looks like you are talking about this season’s SD rather than the SD of PDO for all the seasons for which we have data, which would be what we would use, no? We would want to know in terms of historically, I would think.
Not saying that will make this season’s number wrong, or vary it much, especially if the mean is sitting bang on 1.0 this morning, but I’d think using the whole population of data is more useful. Or say using something like a last five year average.
Although it is not surprising that the curve is pretty leptokurtic because there are real world limits to the tails (they’re just not going to be fat), man, that seems a really tight, tall curve, lol. Good to know.
Is a team more likely to be an outlier due to goaltending than due to shooting? How weird is it that the Canucks are doing this? It seems from the posts above that shooting percentage is driving this number… how many sigmas is that number away from recent historical means?
You can find yearly SH%, SV% and PDO data here: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamtable.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20232024&stype=2&sit=all&score=all&rate=n&team=all&loc=B&gpf=410&fd=&td=.
Adding 5 additional seasons of data on top of this season makes the standard deviation smaller. For PDO, the deviation becomes 0.0145 from 0.0164, with the mean still sitting at 1.000.
So with 6 seasons of PDO data, the Canucks PDO this season becomes 3.5 standard deviations above the mean vs. only 3.1 standard deviations with 1 year of data. I expect the deviation would continue to get smaller with more seasons added.
Looking at SH% this season, league average is 10.09% and the standard deviation is 1.15%. The Canucks are shooting 13.52% currently, so that’s almost exactly 3 standard deviations above average (3.43% above average/1.15%).
With 6 seasons of data, average SH% drops a shade to 9.77%, while the standard deviation (again) gets smaller – now 1.00%. So that data the Canucks SH% is 3.43 deviations above this years mean (3.43% above average/1.00%). Fair to say SH% is driving most of their PDO heater.
This all gives more context to how unusual the Canucks SH% and PDO this season has been, though it all still aligns with the basic observation I (and I’m sure many others) made a few days ago: the Canucks current SH% and PDO are considerably higher than any other year by any other team in the 16 years of data that Natural Stat Trick has available.
So to answer the question “How weird is it that the Canucks are doing this?“. Very weird. And it will be quite remarkable if they can sustain a SH% and PDO anything like this through the end of the season.
Disclaimer: I am the farthest thing from an expert, especially with mathy things. But this is my hunch on your question.
PDO is an aggregate stat. So a weak SV% can be masked by a hot shooting percentage (or timely scoring). See 2022 COL, playoffs. And vice versa.
You’re right that good teams can have an elevated PDO as a baseline versus other teams, which is intuitive. The likes of COL/TBY/BOS/PIT are going to have an elevated PDO compared to the ANA/SJS/CBJs of the league, because they have good goaltending and/or bonafide offence.
This is similar to me in the way folks hold up xG as the panacea of hockey stats. Sure, it’s predictive.
But what’s the underlying context for the numbers?
To put it another way, why does Leon consistently outperform his (supposedly predictive) xGF with (typically) sup-par wingers when away from McDavid? My beef with xG is it doesn’t take into account the situation surrounding the shot/goal (specifically, the who/what/why/how). It’s another aggregate stat that people trumpet as the truth, typically when it supports their position.
So, back the topic at hand, the question begs: is VAN bonafide? Or are they riding a hot (trending toward elite) goaltender? Is their team shooting percentage sustainable? Can they sustain in the playoffs when the scrutiny/game plans get much tighter?
These are three excellent posts. And let’s keep in mind that PDO is the one stat that is named after a poster from this very blog, and that this very commentariat has also presented these same questions and issues over the years.
I would add to the above discussion the nuance that SV% doesn’t necessarily mean good or bad goaltending–just to muddy the waters further, which I know isn’t helpful to those looking for clean narratives. To steal from economics, the marginal save percentage point relies a lot on defense and on top of that we’ve all witnessed what can happen when either the goalie or the skaters don’t believe in the other component.
I don’t think there’s a good answer in-season. Lots of weird things can have season-long sustain. My personal instinct draws from a baseball truism… pitching (defense) is more reliable than bats (offense). If you’re going to see regression, it is far more likely to happen in shooting percentage than in save percentage. One seems inherently more repeatable than the other by its nature. You can generally coach preventing goals, but you can’t generally coach turning a shot into a goal. (And even that’s a bit wrong… getting the puck to the front of the net, for eg).
Now maybe someone who scrapes big data can tell us where the strength in PDO sustain normally lies, and that is a strength we should be able to suss out. But till then, I only have a hypothesis tested by analogy. Which is weak-ass shit. But it works for me.
Hope that helps.
Someone posted a month or two ago (apologies can’t remember whom) that GF% is the most predictive stat
The layman’s eye test is that playoff standings closely follow GF% by season end. It’s logical,.indicative of a stronger team
The shooting volume numbers are better early as they are larger sample sizes than goals – the whole point of Vic thinking up Corsi – and typically if you are winning the shot clock regularly at some point you should be outscoring as well
The other thing not favouring the Canucks is that they aren’t out shooting by much, SV% falling, as I posted yesterday. All heater
Couple points:
1) Most team stats that we talk about on this site have a statistically significant and positive correlation between, say, how a team does in the first half of the season to how they perform in the 2nd half. However, PDO’s correlation is pretty close to zero.
2) The last three cup winners have an average PDO for the full regular season of just over 1.01. Vancouver was over 1.05 for the first half of this year.
Bottom line: Vancouver’s PDO for the second half of the season may be over 1.00, but I would bet heavily that it will be less than 1.05.
Thanks for all the responses. I appreciate it!
Someone really needs to write a book about fancy stats and theory.
I think the biggest regret of my university experience was not taking an advanced stats course.
Avs lose to a team the Oilers beat at the end of their road trip (tired, snowy? no excuses for these guys!), VGK and Nashville only produce 2 points, Krak lose, it’s a Millhouse night
We need to continue to prep for the playoffs. Nothing else matters. Make a smart addition or two. Get everyone 100% healthy, rested and ready to go. Who cares where we finish. Hope LA misses (sick of playing them) and we get the Dys in R1. I’m also fine with Vegas in R1 as well as we will have to beat them sooner or later.
As for yes NHL analyst assessments of Vancouvers run of 7s at the craps table. Yes these analysts are brilliant. I remember how they almost universally applauded Trelving’s 2 summers ago when he traded Tkachuk, lost Johnny for nothing and signed Huberdeau, Kadri and Weeger forever and for a fortune. Never go against their collective wisdom! Everyone is dreaming of getting the Dys in R1.
Pity for all of you who have got gas fireplaces in your homes.
This weather is log fires all the way, baby.
Look Hunter. I already know my gas fireplace sucks.
We love staying at hotels in Banff with wood burning fireplaces. So good.
One of the dumbest things Canada has ever done. As always trying to virtue signal to the rest of the world about saving the planet for the evils of burning wood.
It’s like Saudi Arabia banning everything but electric cars.
“Vancouver Canucks have a high shot percentage because they generate a lot of chance off the rush”
But do they?
https://x.com/woodguy55/status/1747031010670481669?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
no they do not.
But they sure aren’t victom to many either. Perhaps one reason Demko has been looking good.
While true defensively and Demko when healthy is really good
But offensively they shoot as if opponents have Jack Campbell in net every night, and a lot of it is just plain luck
This is only somewhat oiler related but since our dear hairy friend likes to pump the canucks tires…. some food for thought.
I constantly hear things on broadcasts like “canucks have the best 5 man unit in the nhl” and “when the lotto line goes out you know they are going to score” etc etc.
Canucks are the equivalent of when you go to a carshow and are excited when you see a lamborghini down the end of the row and then once you get close it is actually a pontiac fiero with a countach body kit. Absolutely nothing wrong with it but once you get past the glitz and glamour of the exterior from a distance…. its a distinctly mid car. or team for that matter.
Canucks are currently shooting almost 13% at 5v5,
Canucks have scored 114 goals on only 88 expected goals. a ridiculous +26 in this metric.
By contrast the Oilers have scored just 87 goals on 102 expected goals. a wild -15 in this metric.
Canucks have a PDO of 105
Oilers have a PDO of 99.1
When a team is shooting 12.7% they are going to come down hard in that department eventually. To put it into perspective the kraken shot 10.34% last year on an absolute heater.
this is a unreal shooting percentage that will not continue all season, and certainly will not continue in the playoffs. If the oilers were shooting to the same degree that canucks were the oilers would have 124 goals instead of 87.
the same applies to goaltending.
Vancouver has allowed just 72 goals on 88 expected goals against. Demko is a dang good goalie but is he a 16GSAA goalie?
Oilers have allowed 77 goals on 74 expected goals against.
a few more counting stats.
These 2 teams are nothing alike. One is sustainably crushing the compeition, and the other is fluking its way up the standings.
Vancouver ranks 16th is expected goal %.
Edmonton ranks 1st in expected goal %
Vancouver ranks 19th in high danger chance %
Edmonton ranks 1st in high danger chance %
Edmonton ranks 3rd in shot share %
Vancouver ranks 22nd in shot share %
When the wheels come off it is going to be absolutely spectacular.
my apologies for the long winded nature, just thought it might stimulate some input.
Truth! Although the luck could carry through the season, who knows?
I mentioned the other day Tocchet has talked about this in a way to that team. To be ready for a tougher second half. He didn’t refer to stats, but he’s not dumb, knows they are running hot and lucky I think. And he played with more talent than they have in Pitts
See Cowboys, Dallas – all hat, no cattle.
Not sure there’s enough runway left for the Oil to catch them, tho.
They’re gonna be a soft playoff opponent for whomever
I see them as not being an easy out per se, but exploitable
Disrupt Hughes and Miller and things are very different in their world. Goalies are coming down to earth
The Oilers have the potential of having two lines to worry about
Vancouver Canucks 🤝 Miami Dolphins
Goalies 5v5 All Scores 240 Minutes since Nov 13 KK era
Demko 23rd .919 21GP
DeSmith 12th .929 7GP
Stu 18th .922 20GP
Capt 47th .900 7GP
Goalies All Strengths All Scores 240 Minutes since Nov 13 KK era
Demko 19th .911 21GP
DeSmith 21st .911 7GP
Stu 13th .919 20GP
Capt 38th .902 7gp
Since season start 5v5 Demko has dropped .006, DeSmith .005
Stu has gone up .007, Capt has stayed even
Season start All Strengths Demko has dropped .008, DeSmith has dropped .004
Stu has gone up .016, Capt has stayed even
Things slowly even out
Excellent post!!
We gots them right where we wants them
Val Nichushkin entering NHLPA player assistance program.
Was playing excellent to …
Drouin has finally awakened with 6 points in his last 5 games.
He might help.
Not sure where the head coach was but Gully gave the media avail today (almost 15 minutes) – I’ve always found Gully to be a good speaker and look forward to his media avails when he gets the opportunity.
Gully has the best OT winner celebrations on the bench.
Probably took a day off in New York to visit his family.
Pens end the Kracken’s run 3-0.
Elvis stones the Nucks in the SO, 4-3 Jackets
Not bad!
Huzzah!
Finally the Dys GF didn’t wildy outpace their SF. Looks like DeSmith was their best player. They also were the lesser team in slot shots, correct outcome, too bad they got a point!
Last game of a 7 game road trip and had to bus out of Buffalo to Toronto after snowmaggedon.
Flew from Toronto to Columbus and arrived at 3am.
They dominated early but were visibly exhausted as the game wore on.
Likely happy just getting to a shootout.
not the bus ride from Buffalo to Toronto!!
how does a millionaire survive that?
Someone bookmark this please?
So next time the Oilers have extenuating circumstances, and dominate early but are visibly exhausted as the game wore on and are likely happy to get a point in the shootout, we can point to this gem of a post when Andrew chirps something about only results matter, or the rubber hitting the road.
HUNTER1909 Poll:
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Press Thumbs up.
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I like 90% of this team. i.e. they’ll need at least one more forward, and a top 4 dman Possibly a goalie, but Pickard has been good. the worry I have was expressed by McIndoe re: injuries
Tom Gazzola
@TomGazzola
·
7m
Evander Kane skating with Leon Draisaitl and Warren Foegele. Ryan McLeod on the wing with Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark this morning.
I’m sure the coach knows what he’s doing but for me, the 2nd line is ripe for leaking goals against, keeping in mind the defensive chops of Kane (horrible), Drai (good when he wants to) and Foegele (meh). Clouder was the defensive conscience on that line and him moving to the 3rd line makes the 2nd line worse, imo.
Coaches might be giving Kane the opportunity to reclaim his spot. But he will have to hold his own or they will based on merit drop him down as they have shown to do
I for the first time in a long time don’t doubt the decision making about the roster. I am still a little concerned about not resting hurt players not playing well, I don’t see the point in making them play through when it doesn’t seem to be working
My opinion might change, all good for now
If Kane can play 2LW, I think he needs to. This is good cap management.
McLeod is in an arb contract year, don’t want him filling up on free calories with Draisaitl. We’ve seen the potential and that’s great. But let’s keep the cost down and buy a bunch of it in the summer.
Kane has been great, he signed a team friendly deal both cap and term and has been a big boost to the team and community. Good on him. We are going to have cap issues in the coming years and it may be necessary to move a contract. I could see Kane getting the short end of the stick, so it’s important to maintain his value.
All that said we’re in win now mode, so if things are not working we’ve got to go with what works but all things equal Kane should play in the top 6.
Don’t like that Kane complaints get rewarded
Don’t know where this talk of Kane complaining is coming from. From Spectors article,He answered a question that was asked of him. Doesn’t seem like complaining to me. Twitter rumour from there, in my opinion. Kelly Hrudey insinuated something on HNIC regarding McLeod,s “illness”. If we are using rumour as a basis, makes sense he is demoted to third line
It’s been pretty well publicized over the past month that Kane has been banged up/working through something. Hopefully this means he’s out of the woods with that. He can get back to producing for the Oilers and my fantasy team.
Shame for McLeod as I thought he’s looked pretty decent with Drai. The speed on the forecheck has bene a great addition on that line. Still, we know he can be effective in the bottom 6 too (even if some people like questioning his grit). If it doesn’t work out, then flip them back.
Drai needs the speed. It means he doesn’t have to be the primary fore checker, which he will usually try to do with slower or befuddled wingers
He hasn’t been very energetic throughout games, hopefully he’s coming out of his annual doldrums
For sure, Foegele is at least fast enough to get there though. And Kane when he’s not dinged up does fine. McLeod is fast though, I enjoy seeing him beat out icing calls or at least forcing defenders to hustle back (and maybe that has a knock on impact on their stamina as the game continues). Like I say, if it doesn’t work out with Kane there then flip them back over.
So with Kemp i wonder if he’s gonna be dealt like a Kesselring a good D with value
I like to think these guys have been under rated by myself , they do have value more then the average fan can see and i believe Kemp isnt just a throw away in a trade prospect
Phil Kemp is going to play many NHL games. He’s good.
Now, if the Oilers can come to an accord with Vinny, and feel he’s that much better, perhaps Phil Kemp is part of a trade that brings back a good player.
But I could also see Vinny price himself out of Edmonton this summer, and Kemp competing as a front-runner for 3RD.
Finally someone agrees with me! If Kemp reaches free agency he is gone to New York.
He’s got a ways to go though – he’s signed through next season and will still be an RFA at that time (with arb rights).
I just looked up Mike Kesselring. Michael Kesselring Hockey Stats and Profile at hockeydb.com
He has 4-7-11 in 24 games with the ‘Yotes. He’s a player.
Said it for last several years. Oilers are a great place to shop for a spare defenseman
PuckIQ has him doing well against Gritensity. He’s their most sheltered D getting TOI. Vinny’s fancies are way better outside of points (5)
I agree and don’t think Holland got good value for Kesselring and, in fact, I think he massively under-valued Kesslering at last year’s deadline.
I think the cost for Big Dick Nick was the draft pick and the Dineen/Kesselring swap was the payment for the Yotes retaining.
Re Bourgault: I believe that most good prospects show their ability earlier rather than later, especially forwards. Yes, there are some late bloomers, but they are the exception and not the rule. I would have looked to trade Bourg last year, while his value is highest. Its always the drafting team that should know their prospects the best, and a first round pick drafted to be a top six guy who is producing like Bourgault is at the AHL level is concerning.
I’m not suggesting he won’t improve or even be a quality NHL player some day, but I think Vegas has shown that sometimes its better to give up on a guy earlier rather than later to capitalize on his perceived value. Bourg’s value is dropping over time imo.
unfortunately bourg needs guys to play with for offense he will score on scoring lines but not from the third line
Bourgault doesn’t drive the play. He needs to play with a transporter with skill who he can read and react off of.
The coach apparently cannot see this, which is not surprising, since he has no track record as a good coach. The coach is adding no value.
The Tulio/McKegg/Bourgult line has been the 2nd line, in my opinion, most nights but the Condors have a vast void at skilled center.
I would like to see Pederson moved off Holloway’s wing and have him center the 2nd line (McKegg moves down).
They could move Bourgault to 1RW with Holloway and Petrov or Savoie up to the top 6.
Of course, the Condors haven’t lost in 8 plus games so, well, they likely won’t be changing this.
There will be less center skill when Holloway comes up after the Tues/Wed back to back.
Vegas also gave up on Suzuki and received Pacioretty who had massive injuries and they traded for quite literally nothing.
Their track record isn’t spotless.
And where did I say it was spotless? I clearly said “sometimes”. Eichel for Krebs and Tuch seems to be working just fine for Vegas.
I was out of town yesterday and missed my cue for this.
Snakebit Cup Updated Standings
Shots in a goal-less season – forwards only (2000+)
(18-19) L – Tobias Reider 0/92
(19-20) R – Patrick Russel 0/58
(23-24) R – Connor Brown 0/54
(12-13) C – Eric Belanger 0/31
(09-10) C – Ryan Stone 0/25
(06-07) L – Jean-Francois Jacques 0/23
(17-18) R – Kailer Yamamoto 0/23
(17-18) L – Jussi Jokinen 0/22
(02-03) C – Josh Green 0/20
(05-06) L – Brad Winchester 0/19
Will Brown bury one against his former team on Tuesday, or will he stick to his craft and overtake Russel this week? Ceci, in what one assumes is purely an act of solidarity to Brown, sits at 0/44 and is quietly 5 shots shy of setting a new high/low mark for Oilers defenders this century (Smid went 0/48 in 10-11).
LT, I suspect your coach is coaching for his job tonight. Cannot lose to the Bucs with Bill Belicheck available. And I’d bet money Belicheck has already received a call from one Jerry Jones. Maybe JJ’s thinking Harbaugh, but the Chargers seem a more likely Harbaugh destination IMO.
KC-Fish …I think we all knew the kid from Hawaii who went to school in ‘Bama and now plays in Miami was going to struggle in a cold weather game. You cannot have AFC success without a cold weather QB. Just can’t.
Congrats to the Lions on their first playoff win in exactly one forever. McVay–Stafford need to level up their clock management. Cost them the Ravens game in the regular season and again last night. Gotta be button-down in this league.
Texans are going to be good for a looooong time. CJ rocks.
Happy MLK Day, American friends. I’m so glad this day exists. I’d say more on that but, y’know, politics.
Of course, the rest of the NFC is begging JJ not to fire McCarthy. “You should let him coach out his contract, Jerry. And then extend him. He’s good, really.” Mwahahaha!!!
From the moment he admitted he lied to get the job, he was an awful hire. And a gift to the rest of us.
McCarthy is probably the most over-rated coach in the NFL. It was unbelievable and yet all-too-expected (Jerry Jones hired the biggest name) when Dallas hired him.
I like the idea of Kemp seeing his first NHL game on the wing. I think it just makes too much sense that the seventh defenseman in the 11/7 alignment be capable of playing as a forward and if there’s an injury, being able to step in and play defense if required. Maybe they should do the same with Broberg.
We had our little discussion regarding Foegele yesterday and lo and behold there is your Athletic article today. Before any groundwork can be set in motion the GM, whoever that may be, must have a honest discussion with the glitter twins on what their intentions are after their contracts expire. Then and only then can we proceed. (Provided we get honest answers from them)
Speaking of trains, the Oilers have been a Shinkansen lately. The standings a paddy-green blur. Forget wagons.
Win three of the next four and the Oilers will be tracking as a top 10 team in the league. They might not sit there in points but it would put Edmonton at 43 GP and 53 PTS which is currently Vegas at #9 and every team in the top 10 is either 43 or 42 games deep right now. So if this push can maintain for a bit we’ll be able to consider even Vancouver / Winnipeg as tracking only 8 points better at just past the mid way point of our season so effectively as close to 1 as to 9 in conference.
I recently suggested that they would finally contend for the division after 4 quarters: 1) face plant 2) regroup 3) establish wildcard position and breathe down necks 4) push into top 3 and see where it lands
With Edmonton’s current play simultaneous with Vegas and LA tripping over themselves I don’t think stage 3 will last very long and Edmonton will have plenty of runway to hunt down Vancouver in the Pacific.
It’s too bad they only play the Dys once more
What you don’t think we will host them in game 1 of the WCF?
Probably because Vancouver will already have been bounced from the playoffs lol
Well if that came to pass, I would put my money on them hosting
My prediction is LA and Vegas fall to the wild cards, Oilers Preds keep climbing, Krak are going to fall out of luck and fade with the Flames
I’m not sure the Dys will beat LA or Vegas in a series. We take out the Preds
I think they’d play them in the 2nd round, right? Well, unless the Oilers are in the wild card and cross-over.
He is an absolute standout and difference maker at the AHL level and I have full confidence he can fill in at 3LD and play 14 minutes per night with some depth PK and be effective.
I sure hope he is not traded over the next few months – his value contract (this season and the next few years) is more valuable to the org than the potential trade return.
They need to start succession planning to keep the team strong through Connor’s career, if they have any competence
The easiest and cheapest way is to invest in what they have already. Between Bro Holloway Rod and Lavoie they have some good players to develop and all player types. These are good young players, we should be happy to have them even if they aren’t perfect
Then bring up the next wave that have talent. Bourg Savoie Petrov Wanner Akey and whomever else they can. Make sure they are getting enough support off season to work on weaknesses, which holds a lot of players back from being NHL quality
Just as LT’s example of Brodziak and a solid summer’s work setting him up for a NHL career. Happened to Bear as well – strength, cardio, skating
This is exactly what I’ve been harping on lately.
Good teams are able to develop talent in the minors, and inject them as vets age out or players price themselves off the team. We see impact defensemen come out of NSH seemingly every other year. The LAK and NYR are goalie factories. PIT and TBY seem to have a never ending supply of quality forwards.
We seem to have figured out how to draft quality beyond the top of the first round. Next step is to develop this talent and bring them along as contributing players at the NHL level.
I think a concerted and directed development plan is key. These are kids, leaving it mostly up to them given how important it is for the NHL team isn’t smart. I think a lot of them need direction and to be held accountable
Most are hockey academy then CHL, or US program kids. Euro kids far from home and support networks. Their first taste of actual self direction, freedom (not billets), with a bit of cash can sometimes, shall we say, lack discipline and the required focus and effort
Guys like Connor are always surrounded by people. Not most kids after the draft
See, I don’t think that’s accurate.
I’ve read interviews and heard Keith Gretzky talk about his frequent and regular check-ins with the prospects. Not just in the AHL, where he’s based out of on a full time basis, but with the Jr. league players and ones in Europe. There are others (skills coaches, player development staff) whom he directs to follow up with them on tasks/objectives, and he also checks in with the head coaches of Oilers prospects to see how they’re dong with their development plans.
They just need better results.
Not saying it’s KG, he seems to have been a value add since coming on board… but they just need to start hitting on more of these depth picks.
That’s all good of course. For me when we hear ‘boots’ and they aren’t showing good improvement to me that’s something that can be worked on and that I’m not convinced they are active enough with
It’s the main thing that torpedoes draftees if they have any hockey ability, which our draftees have had over the last few years
VOR used to have great posts about things that can make a diff with skating
Yeah, VOR was legendary. Miss his posts, hope he’s doing well.
One thing I was skeptical of right away was hiring Jamie Salle’s ex-husband for the skating coach. I’m sure he’s great on his edges, but that’s only one portion of skating. They clearly need a better coach, because while some have made strides, (Bouchard and Leon come to mind in recent memory) there are too many Landers and Bensons who don’t level up after the draft.
Brayden Point lasted to the third round, due to skating concerns, and TBY managed to get him the coaching he needed to improve (Tyler Johnson’s mom).
Maybe they could hire an Olympic speed skater to augment what Pelletier is doing, and then develop a program to implement at the AHL level.
I think so. VOR spoke about training sprinters and seeing relevance to skating
Pro hockey players talk about the youth and their ‘chicken legs’. Not built up yet. What VOR was referring to was specific strength training (squats etc), which is where the power for acceleration comes from. Of course stride and torso position as Bruce Curlock mentions in his pieces matter
Bigger guys are typically slower in first steps, the power strides. I think it may be in part due to not having the leg strength relative to a big heavier frame to propel around. Big guys can be quick and fast, some probably need the help to get better, specific help
Messier was blazing, Coffey of course and he was a pretty built guy. Kreider, Hintz, McLeod, Bro all tall and over 200 and really fast
This is something we should see marked changes in with Jackson.
If I’m not mistaken, Jackson and Dave Gagner were pioneers with respect to including player development through the Wasserman agency, right?
I also want to note the current success of depth draft picks by the Oilers – in particular 7th round pick d-man. The Oilers had two former 7th round pick right shot d-men in Saturday nights’ game (although only one of them actually played defence) and Max Wanner is having a sensational season for a 20 year old rookie pro d-man in the AHL. He is almost certainly going to have an NHL career the way he is trending, perhaps a substantial one.
7th round pick – right shot d-man – this org is elite in that area it seems.
Savoie staying injury free for the rest of this year would be huge for him. More game time means the AHL will slow down for him, and we should see more production.
His TOI has been trending up too hasn’t it? Which would match LT’s statement about coaches seeing things in the player and therefore playing them more.
If Carter hadn’t been as banged up last year I wonder if we would have seen him taking these steps forward already. I’m solidly supporting the kid, I loved the pick when they made it, I hope he makes the show one day. Even for one game.
He’s still playing with Petrov and Grubbe on a depth line with no real PP time.
The lack of skill center to play with on the Condors is an issue.
My hope is Bro is the 7th by the trade deadline and part of the regular rotation by playoffs. His footspeed is a tremendous asset and, to my eye, more valuable than Vinnie’s reach and tenacity when the games start to matter.
I like Vinnie’s game but he gets into trouble due to foot and processing speed. Takes him a split second longer to gather the puck, identify the outlet and get the puck properly loaded on his stick.
Bro makes these plays easier as he gets to the puck sooner with the forecheck in pursuit. Puck recovery behind the goal line is a massive part of the game.
I worry about Des in the playoffs because of reffing. Our guys tend to get away with less ‘off the puck play’ and reaching in etc
If Des gets called for using his reach 5v5, and it continues to happen, he can’t do anything else, he’s too slow as you said. No room these days for a PK guy you are hesitant to play at evens
Desharnais placed second at the Oilers Skills Competition this year, over 40 km/h just behind McLeod.
Source: https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/recap-oilers-skills-competition-presented-by-rogers
Did they report the time to get to that instanteous top speed?
They have eliminated acceleration out of the fastest skater measurement. Previously, both velocity and acceleration mattered. Now only top instanteous speed matters.
Nobody claimed it was “instantaneous top speed.” Not sure why you’d mischaracterize what I said. The important context to take out of that event is that all the skaters who competed did so in the same format, and that was their top speed.
He’s the size of a locomotive. It should come as a surprise to no one that it takes a few buckets of coal to get up to full steam. But when he gets going, he chug along with the best of them.
Yes and one year Lucic was 2nd or something. With NHL it’s about acceleration, lots of guys get going if they have enough space and time – first steps are key
I get the foot speed concerns, although his reach makes up for some of that, but I don’t see any processing issues with Desharnais. I have more concerns with Broberg in the processing department.
Desharnais reads and reacts very well defensively. I also think he sees the ice quite well when he has the puck, he just doesn’t have the hands or the boots to execute sometimes. But his hands have improved since he got here.
His biggest weaknesses defensively is defending speed wide off the rush. However, the skater still has to turn the corner to get to the net. And that is one long corner to turn.
Personally I have no problem with Desharnais playing 3RD. I think he’s fine there, on a cup contending team.
I would suggest that Broberg is #7 right now even with Gleason and Kemp having been up to warm the bench. If they needed a d-man to come in and play defence, Kemp would be down and Broerg up in a flash.
Its really shocking how few games the top 6 d-men have missed.
We are getting to the point, in my opinion, as Godot has suggested should have been happening for a while now, to get Broberg rotated in – manage some loads and get him reps.
Tough to sit a “healthy” d-man but, now that they have clawed back to a fairly good spot in the standings that ever lost standings point isn’t a catastrophe and they can start doing some of these playoff preparations.
I never did hear why Kemp was playing RW Saturday night. Maybe it was mentioned on HNIC during the first 10 minutes when the audio wasn’t working.
I believe McLeod was a late scratch and Gagner isn’t quite ready
Yes, correct.
Even though the org stated that Gagner was ready to go 4 games ago (so we all presumed that he hadn’t been playing due to “not changing a winning lineup), when it came down to it, the org had to tell us that he’s dealing with “a continuing upper body issue)” – i.e. concussion
In the next 5 years I think there will be many an article on this blog about obvious signs.
We’ll look back and see Broberg had announced he is too good for the AHL by a mile, and that roster limitations and Ken Holland’s MO kept him back from emerging earlier.
I believe the cream eventually rises, Bro will have a career.
He’s developing exactly as Ekholm’s replacement, maybe not quite as physical, but way faster. Might have a little more offense in him as well. I can live with that
No one ever accused Ekholm of not having Hockey Sense
I think it’s too early to judge Bro’s brain. I say this because at every level he has been a top D. Played very young in a men’s league. Relied upon to anchor the D for Team Sweden. One of his coaches there said he was the best D he had ever coached
Because in his limited and sporadic NHL usage and multiple injuries setting him back, that he hasn’t settled at the top level is not the book on him to me. Lots of D aren’t ready until approaching their mid twenties, including Nurse. Pronger took time, I’m not making a direct comparison, although I can see Bro ending up better than Nurse, outside of fisticuffs
This is where classic Oilers bail and get zippo after going through the growing pains, to someone else’s great benefit, and continue needing good younger players
In Sweden, defensemen are supposed to be Nik Lidstrom, not Paul Coffey.
Was/is it a lack of hockey sense, or just not fully conforming to the norms and expectations of Swedish hockey? And thus appearing sometimes like a fish out of water.
This statement is speculative and un-nuanced. Sweden has also produced defenders like Erik Karlsson and John Klingberg. Please don’t stereotype. This is MLK Day, after all.
When you represent a massive group as a homogeneous monolith, you’re not doing critical thinking any favors.
Klingberg is a fairly conventional offensive Swedish D. More passer with a good shot, than transporter.
Karlsson stayed in Sweden only one season post draft, and was far more polished in his game than Broberg, who was admittedly by most everyone far more raw and unfinished as a prospect.