This is the Oilers roster in June 2015, just before the Rapture. I had a powerful deja vu come over me last night watching Jordan Eberle and the Seattle Kraken. I think Oilers fans had every right to expect a clearer vision and a more astute hand on the wheel. What’s done is done. This edition of the Edmonton Oilers has so many good things and yet the ultimate goal is a Frankie Valli away (“so close, so close, and yet so far”). Last night was a reminder of how this team can get itself into trouble, and how impressive their talent level is despite the mistakes of youth.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 5 AHL Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ Dylan Holloway pick at the 2020 NHL Draft
- DNB: Oilers demolish ‘one-man team’ label in comeback win over Maple Leafs
- Lowetide: Is Oilers forward Warren Foegele earning another contract?
- Lowetide: Where do the Oilers need to improve depth before the NHL trade deadline?
- DNB: Oilers are back as a Western Conference power
- Lowetide: Could this be the ultimate Edmonton Oilers season?
- DNB: Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers complete 2023-24 prospects update
- Lowetide: Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod and the Oilers’ development system
- Lowetide: Oilers close NHL standings gap during a brilliant December run
- DNB: Connor McDavid marks 600th NHL game by coming to the rescue in pivotal Oilers win
- Lowetide: What can Dylan Holloway bring the Oilers when he returns?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY
- At home to: PHI, OTT (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CHI, DET, MTL (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- At home to: TOR, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CBJ, CHI, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-3-1, 15 points in 11 games
- Actual January results: 7-0-0, 14 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 25-15-1, 51 points in 41 games
The Oilers reach the halfway point of the season in third place Pacific on the back of 12 straight wins. If you were out of the country on business from October to this morning and this blog is your first update of the regular season, hold on to your ass there’s some weird and serpentine recent history in store for you. Don’t worry, it all ends well.
THE NUMBERS
A CONVERSATION
- They’ll never learn. On the contrary, the Oilers are learning, and showing the wisdom gained by wars lost in previous seasons. This team is very good. I believe they can win the Stanley in 2024.
- I didn’t realize peyote grows this far north. Edmonton’s players have a system that works, is repeatable, and are far better in coverage and outlets than in the past.
- One line team! The McDavid line (Nuge, Hyman) has a 23-11 goal share (68 percent) and scores 5.04 goals-60 (all numbers five-on-five). The Draisaitl line (Kane, Foegele, McLeod) scores 57 percent of the goals and has a 4.5 goals-60.
- They have weaknesses. If you’re an Oilers fan, and don’t remember the 1980’s (or the 1990 Stanley Cup) then this is peak Oilers right now. I would suggest that even though this version of the team hasn’t yet exceeded the 2006 Oilers team in results, the elements to do it are mostly in place now.
- They have weaknesses. Yes. Agreed. The problem for management comes in what to address. There are things that worry.
- Like? The Nurse-Ceci pairing has a 55 percent goal share but the splits raise a Spockian eyebrow (credit: Dave Jamieson). Nurse without Ceci allows 27 shots-60, and it’s 33 shots-60 for the pairing. You’d like an upgrade there.
- And? I suspect goaltending will be addressed. Skinner has been lights out since November 24 (.929 save percentage at five-on-five in 18 games; .930 SP in all strengths). Pickard has been good in that time (.906 overall, .894 five-on-five) but if this team wants to cover all the bases, another option is likely to be installed.
- What about Jack Campbell? His three most recent outings in the AHL have been splendid (.942SP) but it’s a matter of trust. If the Oilers recall him, and the chaos returns, will that create bad habits/people trying to do too much? Right now, the tremors on defense seem to have found other teams to scare. There is risk.
- What about Olivier Rodrigue? I suspect it’s too soon. I suspect he’s going to miss the fun this year and maybe his story is written elsewhere in time. I would give him an audition before Campbell.
- What else? The third and fourth lines are still under construction.
- Who are your keepers? Ryan McLeod, Sam Gagner, Derek Ryan and Mattias Janmark are four of the six forwards on those two lines. Add Dylan Holloway, that’s five. I suspect a RH center will be the sixth piece.
- That isn’t sexy. You’re not looking for sexy, you’re looking for functional and effective. You drive the sports car for fun, but you need a three-quarter ton with plenty of loading room for other activities.
- What is most important? A third line who can play and outscore. I think Holloway-McLeod-Brown should work, but Connor Brown is not having a Connor Brown season offensively.
- Who would you get for these spots? In a perfect world, you would acquire Sean Walker to replace Cody Ceci, Jake Allen as an upgrade on Calvin Pickard, Adam Henrique to shore up the third line. I don’t think Edmonton will get any of those fellows.
- Why? The cap is tight, so it’s dollar for dollar. You’re sending Ceci over for Walker, as an example. That saves some money but you have to add a sweetener and that’s going to slay your assets. You’d like Henrique, and can take on some money because of the Walker deal, but you must get way more cap relief in the trade. Dealing Jack Campbell would cost two firsts. Will Jeff Jackson allow the current management to further damage the future for a new general manager?
- Interesting. Yes. If you’re asking me what Holland is going to do, I’ll say sign Corey Perry, add James Reimer and slot in Dylan Holloway at center on the fourth line.
- Is that enough? If McDavid, Draisaitl, Ekholm-Bouchard and Nurse-Ceci/Walker/Tanev stay healthy, and Stuart Skinner plays like he is now? Yes. It’s enough.
At noon today, Sports 1440, it’s the Lowdown. We’ll talk historic winning streaks, Steve Lansky will answer some questions you’ve sent in and Tyler Yaremchuk will have a lash at the trade deadline activity. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Great win. Always so nice to beat the Flames.
Holloway sure looked good last night.
Both goalies were very good, I do wonder who Calgary is going to trade. I would assume 1 of Vlader or Markstrom will go before the deadline so they can get Wolfe up. Vlader would be a good grab for Edmonton . That 2.2 per year with 1 more year would be a great goalie contract to pair with Skinner for the rest of this year and next.
That giant rookie for Calgary has some game. He can actually skate and can he hit.
I would personally like to thank Yamamoto for the lackadaisical line change. Hooray! Hooray! It’s a Holi-Holiday”
@JasonGregor
Starting next season five teams; Spruce Grove, Sherwood Park, Brooks, Blackfalds and Okotoks will be merging with BCHL teams.
I’m curious if more join or what the AJHL will do?
At some point Hockey Canada will need to work with these other leagues rather than against them.
Hard to believe this is what it has come to. All about the money. This is the ripple effect of NIL in US. Kids and parents believe they can start the career earnings earlier. Hockey Canada not willing to adapt and or the new regime hasn’t been able to grasp what is going on.
Hockey Canada is a mess.
This league allows its teams to recruit from all over North America and Europe which leads to a higher level of competition and is a feeder league for the NCAA.
Its becoming a significant rival for the WHL.
If the Oilers could pick up Durzi from Arizona, that would be an excellent, inexpensive get.
He’s not big, I see him like Sekera. He is one of the few who could skate with MDavid and he can move the puck. I like him.
Which are reasons it would cost a whale of a package to acquire him (and then he’ll need $6MM this off-season……), no?
The Coyotes have ZERO D signed for next season.
Durzi is a RFA with arbitration rights.
I can’t imagine they will want to move him.
Remember when you had suggested this past summer to me that a second rounder was a pretty fair price? What do you imagine he’d cost now?
Would you have had the Oilers pay s first round pick for him?
A 5th for Vancouver. 10 first rounders for Edmonton.
Same as it ever was in the land of Hair. 😉
HH has really been inconsistent in his evaluation of Durzi.
When he was with the Kings, HH was calling him a young, cheap and a significant part of the Kings D. And he is a RD which has tons of value.
Then the Kings get fleeced by trading him for peanuts, and then HH said the Kings got the best return they could for a young, cheap, good, RD.
Now he’s saying the Coyotes don’t want to move him because he’s just so valuable as an RFA.
Durzi, lol.
I was raving about Durzi here this past summer. I couldn’t believe the Kings traded him for a second rounder. I had predicted this last summer that he would have a breakout season.I don’t recall anyone agreeing with me.
Connor Ingram was another buy low player that I had picked this past summer.
If the Oilers want me to bolster their professional scouting department, I’d be happy to join the team.
Durzi off the Kings remains a win for the Oilers, although LAK may miss the playoffs the way they’re going.
Summarizing!
Copponi dented twine to extend his goal streak to four games. Now has seven tallies on the season. Also went 12-of-17 (70.6%) on draws.
Määttä played for the first time in over a month and picked up an assist.
Day allowed four goals on 24 SOG in a 5-3 loss.
Mazura, Lachance, Münzenberger and Stonehouse were held soupless. They shall have to content themselves with boiled avocado pits instead.
I will post up here as it will get wasted below.
McDavid cut Gourde off the face off with an errant stick. It wasn’t the minor cross check, it was the stick that had Gourde worked up.
The cut happened off the face off, not in the scrum.
What difference does it make? None, just sayin.
Gourde was in pain and angry we’ve all been there. Yanni being a little guy showed a lot guts going at the entire Oiler team. I would take him on my team tomorrow.
Does it make a difference who’s stick it was?
https://twitter.com/AdamsOnHockey/status/1748488092842074155
Now we know the rest of the story.
Oilers up to #4 in The Athletic’s power rankings….
https://theathletic.com/5213870/2024/01/19/nhl-power-rankings-mvp/
My Haiku:
Fog on a cracking
Ice the goal Germain needed
for success breathe
Zero for two bud
Maybe this ain’t your forte
Four is one too few
Rules for playoff Haiku:
Win the first in five.
Next series will go seven.
Parle Francais cat sank.
fully brilliant wise
beyond the blueline scoring
pucking points for half
Nuge is on the left
Mcdavid in the middle
Hyman on the right
This is terrific.
Concerned some about the PP. Noticed there are times where nobody is moving while Drai or Connor look for somebody open. Usually ends up back to the point where for some reason now Bouchard will NEVER shoot the puck. Stauffer mentioned this on air during the last game. They need a little more on the PP. We know they’re capable of it.
Teams have scouted the PP well. They know Drai loves the 1-timer from the goal line and they love going cross seam so they are taking those passes away.
Stauffer and Rob Brown have both said Bouchard needs to shoot more. It creates chaos either going off someone, breaking sticks and the PP thrives on chaos. They’ve become too predictable.
PP is in a slump, no doubt, but even the “best of all time” last year had some slumps – the PP is like any player or any aspect of the game, there will always be ups and down.
I too have noticed, and mentioned, that when the players get stagnant, it seems less effective – its seems more dynamic when McDavid is in motion, circling high to take a pass with some room and speed, for example – I’m pretty sure the players (and Gully) understand these things as well. I think we can be safe to see a heater soon.
As far as Bouchard never shooting, that didn’t jive with my brain and I went a checked – he’s 9th among d-men in the league in shots/60 at 5 on 4 (min: 40 min played).
Last season, Bouchard was a bit of a shinpad assassin just firing away non-selectively from the point. He’s more patient now and a higher percentage of his shots are now finding their way through to the net.
Interesting context. I would not have that that Bouchard was taking as many shots.
PP scored two last night. Probably the last thing any of us need to worry about. Good to get tested in regular season to help develop more looks and options going forward. This PP evolves at a quicker rate than the rest of the leagues PK against us.
Gully spoke about the power play, and said their metrics showed that they were continuing to produce similat number of chances and that he wasnt worried. Was he blowing smoke you think?
The power play is so well scouted it screams for a set play or two. Start with moving it up for a surprise break in attempt rather than drop to McDavid for the zone entry.
Finish with Drai back in the slot for a one timer attempt. He will pull someone to him for coverage. Then Bouch can walk in and shoot from top of circles.
Will listen later but Ryan Holt just on with Gregor:
“He played 30 minutes the other night, and part of that was due to having five power plays. He has been running the PP, and I know he won’t do that in Edmonton, but he has been the best D-man on the ice in most of his games. He is playing with confidence and seems to have a chip on his shoulder in the defensive zone,” Holt on Broberg
Puzzled why anyone would down vote a quote from a team insider on a player we all have high interest in???? Thanks for the report OP!
Some people suck?
0
1
10
1/2
0-1-1-2-3-5-8-13-21-35
Are you sure about the 35?
HH puts the fib in Fibonacci.
Yes.
This is golden.
So…you WERE paying attention 🥸
Question – if the Oilers trade Connor Brown, do they get out of part of that bonus from next year? Or is it stuck to them regardless?
No they do not. The bonus is all on the Oilers once it vested with his 10th game played.
If only I recieved a dollar for everytime that valid question was asked.
I’ve been studying the NHL rulebook and trying to match what it says to what we know can happen. Here is what I have found:
Isn’t there something in there about Boston being entitled a pick out of this as well
No, we’re stuck with it
but with how he’s killing penalties no way I take him out of lineup
Per LeBrun: Jussi Saros available via trade.
We’re good, thanks. Amazing what can change in six weeks.
I still think the Oilers need to inquire on this.
He also mentioned it would take an imperial f*ckload to get a deal done.
We can’t afford the ask for Saros……… end stop
Sure,Campbell and how many first round picks?
even if true I can’t imagine us able to or willing to outbid Devils or Hurricanes
Or kings
Trotz has had some very interesting convo’s w/Buffalo and Anaheim. He’s shopping the best deal. Needs skill forwards (because that’s what they lack). Askarov is ready to play in the NHL, Lankinen a good back-up.
Pretty risky. He’s 29 this spring. Middling results this season, seems like your more likely paying a KR for his decline, and having to try to trade him off season or looking at a big next contract
With the best goalie in the A hitting age
The Legend of Uncle Chen.
https://torontosun.com/sports/other-sports/chinese-marathon-runner-disqualified-for-chain-smoking-through-entire-race
Ok. Thats bloody hilarious!
He should organize his own marathon with a 1 pack minimum!
Question for the group: what are the best advanced stats for evaluating defenseman?
And how is Nurse progressing this year or at least since KK and PC took over?
Canucks
Nov 13 to Jan 18
PDO 1.036 (#2)
Wins
3 goals plus – 4
2 goals – 6
1 goal –9
Losses
1 goal – 5
2 goals – 2
3 goals – 2
S/O losses 2, OT loss 1, OT Win 2
53% Power Wins for the Dys. 44% of the losses 2 goals or worse. This with SV% .911 All Strengths (5th), SV% 5v5 .923 (4th)
One thing (among many) I loved about last nights game was that Connor went write after Gourde after the cheap shot on Eks. Not afraid at all to get into the mix.
Also funny how, the replay showed Gourde going after Ekholm and Gourde look relatively fresh faced. When he came out of the scrum though and was sitting in the box, his face was looking like it was stung by bees and he had a bunch of nicks and was bleeding. I also noticed after the 2nd replay that Skinner was giving him some shots too.
Reminded me of the scene from Army of Darkness
https://x.com/widemanden/status/1748205396849041791?s=20
Yes. The guy who buried a referee blindside is defending the Gourde hit because he’s saying Mcdavid is filthy.
Wideman talking about accountability I shit you not.
Fight me or i will go board someone? Not sure those are connected. A better connection is when you deliver a dirty hit to Ekholm you up with a bloody face.
Who is Wideman and why don’t you just delete this loudmouth wannabe-BizNasty from your social media?
I was convinced we were going to see McDavid in his first NHL fight last night. Thought so much earlier than the thing with Gourde. Glad we didn’t see it. But, even Gretzky had his Broten.
Has it ever been confirmed that Mr. Holland will not be the general manager of the Oilers next year?
No.
His contract is up, doesn’t mean that he won’t be the GM next year.
It was generally thought that it would be his last year even prior to Jackson being hired but nothing was ever official – Holland always said he’s just focussed on this year and that he’s still got a ton of energy.
Its generally been assumed that Jackson will want to put in his own guy but, nope, nothing close to official.
Ack! I’ve played and coached on many teams, some bad, some good, and some very good. That breeds superstitions of various sorts, including the cardinal superstition: Never talk about how good you are. Never mention championship, the trophy, or dream about winning it all. Play one shift at a time and see where it takes you. Otherwise you invite bad luck.
Of course there is no logical basis for such superstition, but I’m covering my eyes!!
It was quite delightful to hear the media desperately try to draw some comment about the streak from the coach and players last night.. and not one of them would take the bait.
Yes, I saw that too. Media is going to media. A 12 game winning streak is going to invite prognosticators far and wide. But this appears to be a much more mature team than previous editions. It feels like they have something to prove and aren’t finding satisfaction with anything.
I was worried about them at game 9 of this streak – that they would put out a dud performance against DET after winning on a subpar effort in CHI. But that was one of their best performances in this streak.
One shift at a time….
Coach K.K deflects any praise the players are following suit.
After the Rapture… that’s such a quality metaphor, LT.
I expressed my worry earlier in the week that the game last night would be troublesome due to an emotional letdown after that hella Leafs tilt. You could see how the team, especially the Ontario players, were absolutely amped for the Leafs, in particular McDavid, Bouchard and Hyman.
Being emotionally drained is a thing and I can’t remember who said it (I suspect MacT), but when you are tired, first you lose your head (thinking), then your hands, and lastly your legs. I think all three were on display last night, but for both teams as the Krak were also a very tired squad (thankfully). So we got a pretty poorly executed affair. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team out-bad-line-change another team in a game before. It was actually pretty funny, although it did ruin the best pass of the night, which was surprisingly made by a goaltender.
And how many dump-in, forecheck, cycle,shifts did we see? Those take a lot of work and neither squad was really up for it.
The lesson, I’d have like to have seen learned, one they learned had earlier this season but seemed to have forgotten at puck drop (head goes first), was that when you don’t have it, simplify, simplify and then simplify some more. But credit to Nobby, he got their heads screwed on right in the first intermission and they opened the second stanza by getting pucks to and on the net with great success. That blitz took a lot of wind out of the Seamen’s already depleted sails.
One really bright spot was how on a night when L1 did not have much jump or juice, Leon Draisaitl picked the team up and put it on his back, along with a winger who truly did have his legs, Foegele. I commented during the game how marvelously Drai was backtracking and I see below that others agree. His work rate saved the day and led by example.
The lead helped prevent them from chasing and taking unnecessary risks and the team got better as the game went along. And, following the simple theme, they focused on shutting the opposition down for the back half of the 3rd and executed that ruthlessly, albeit against a flagging Seattle squad (or is that squid?).
So we saw a worrisome blip and a lesson forgot, but they managed to keep their cool, get back to what they’ve learned, and bear down for a tough win.
And now on to what promises to be another emotional affair against the Phlegms. KK, who gives little away in his post-games, is clearly not impressed with the starts (so pleased to hear that, I am) and I think we’ll see a different first period in Cowville.
(Hopefully by then my Niners are blowing out the Pack and I don’t have to go cross-eyed watching the end of one and the start of the other.)
Onwards and forwards. Nobody wants to be tied with the dastardly Sixties Habs, amIright? Ugh. I’m keto but I don’t care… Bring on the baking!!!
I liked that KK out all 5 of the first unit to start the 3 minute PP at the end of the game. Shows confidence in Nuge’s defensive responsibility on that unit. Aggressive decision that paid off.
At the Oilers midway point the Bettman 500 leaderboard (by pts above .500)
+19 Winnipeg .721
+19 VANCOUVER .711
+15 Colorado
+13 Dallas
+12 VEGAS
+10 EDMONTON
+8 LOS ANGELES
+6 Nashville
+2 Arizona .523
+2 CALGARY/SEATTLE .522
+1 St. Louis
-3 Minnesota
-13 ANAHEIM
-17 Chicago
-21 San Jose
Bettman 500 changes since US Thanksgiving
Up 17 EDMONTON
Up 13 Winnipeg
Up 12 VANCOUVER
Up 9 Colorado
Up 8 Nashville
Up 5 Dallas
Up 4 CALGARY
Up 3 Arizona
Up 2 VEGAS/SEATTLE
No change LOS ANGELES/Minnesota
Down 2 St. Louis
Down 9 San Jose
Down 10 Chicago
Down 12 ANAHEIM
No surprise but Gourde will be meeting with the DOPS – that’s a no-doubter suspension (at least in my opinion).
In-person meeting?
At least 2 games?
I think it was just a regular phone meeting – rarely does an in-person meeting happen unless there is a real chance of 5+ games (and the NHL has to offer an in-person for 5 or more).
I said this during the Oilers 2-9-1 start and I’ll say it again now: “Never get too low when things are going bad and never get too high when things are going well’.
Go Oilers!
Jets
Nov 13 to Jan 18
PDO 1.046 (#1)
Wins
3 goals plus – 6
2 goals – 6
1 goal – 10
Losses
1 goal – 5
2 goals – 2
3 goals – 0
No S/O games, 1 OT win and 2 OT losses. The OT games are included in 1 goal wins or losses. If there were any S/O games I wouldn’t include them
55% Power Wins for the Jets. Only two 2 goal losses, they are a scrappy team riding hot goalies – SV% .940 (#1)
According to the WoodMoney’s Schiefele is rocking a 19-3 GF/GA against Elite competition with a .977 SV% this year. A PDO of 1133. Hellybuck has played one more game than Stu and faced 130 more shots. I’d go short the Jets.
I’d also go short Colorado in February. They play playoff teams and they are riding Georgiev, Toews, Makar, MacKinnon and Rantanen like its the Kentucky Derby. They’ve played a lot of hockey the last few years. Risky business.
So just listened to the 11 am news on 630 Ched. The guy doing the sports reported the Oilers have now won 11 games in a row and going for the bakers dozen tomorrow night in Calgary!!!! Seriously????
OK brain fart, bakers dozen is 13!
Baiting teams by spotting them a goal or two is probably not a good form of entertainment for the lads, hopefully KK smartens them up! A really good win, hopefully they dial it in, perhaps illness is affecting their game starts. But either way I hope they get back to starting on time
A little update on ‘Clear Victories’. I think I like ‘Power Wins’ better. Sounds more sportsy. Anyway, I was pleasantly surprise to see the wins and losses sorted out. I know Bruce can remember all of this and tabulate it in his head, but I’m not so fortunate!
To refresh, ‘Power Wins’ are wins by 2 goals or more, not including empty net goals. One goal wins are not strongly predictive of strength, aren’t as likely to be repeatable, if I remember the argument correctly. Basically there is too much luck in that scenario, wins by two or more goals are far less likely to have as much influence from ‘bounces’ (luck)
It makes sense that the opposite would also be true. Losses by one goal could also be influenced negatively by luck, but it’s better to be in it with a chance than losing by 2 or more, indicating it was not a good game, for whatever reason. Empty net goals would also be taken out
So a win by 2 G + is good and means the team is strong, a loss by 2 G + is bad and means the team is weak. So let’s see how ‘Powerful’ the Oilers are since KK took over (Nov 13th). I think it’s more informative than including the Horrorstart:
Wins
3 goals plus – 8
2 goals – 4
1 goal – 5
Losses
1 goal – 3
2 goals – 2
3 goals plus – 1
5 OT / SO games, won them all (since KK remember)
With wins they have 70% Power Wins. That is impressive and for whatever reason I didn’t expect that high a percentage
With losses only 3 games they couldn’t keep up
I will look at the Jets and Dys next out of curiosity, as they have a lot of Reg Wins and lead the league in Goal Diff, but we know they are running hotter than the sun in PDO. If it was being scraped I’d look at all the top teams
I realized I wanted to include OT games in 1 goal wins and losses, but not S/O as I don’t think it says much about team quality
Wins
3 goals plus – 8
2 goals – 4
1 goal – 8
Losses
1 goal – 3
2 goals – 2
3 goals plus – 1
So the Power Win percentage changes to 67%
I’ve often thought that if the 95 New Jersey Devils had McDavid they would have been the greatest team in history (you can say that about a lot of teams adding McDavid). Jacques Lemaire would put McDavid out on the powerplay to go up 1-0 and the game would be over. Then I think, Why don’t the Oilers just learn to play defence?
Great game last night as usual. I thought Leon was fantastic last night defensively. I could care less about his offence. If he can play like that more often then the Oilers will be unstoppable. He saved the game late on a backtrack when Nurse and Ceci were doing their best to give Seattle one last chance to score. This is right after Nurse took a terrible offensive zone penalty that is going to be called 10/10 times. Leon was dragging
Kane up and down the ice who looks injured and ineffective. Evander is turning the puck over way too much and isn’t able to impact the game physically. Foegele looks twice as fast as Kane out there right now.
Skinner is really coming into his own right now. If he can play well enough for Holland to redirect his assets into other areas then the Oilers will be a juggernaught.
I really like Leon’s emphasis on his D play – but I DO CARE about his 4 points which without them we don’t win! I am going to have my cake and eat it too.
I would rather be entertained for 82 nights (give or take a couple playoff rounds) during a cold Alberta winter than celebrate for two days after watching the ’95 Devils all season.
Hockey is, after all, only escapism entertainment.
I thought Leon was also involved in all three zones last night.
I thought he was a monster tracking back to the defensive zone – multiple times he closed on attackers from behind and either stole the puck or allowed his d-men to step up with the strong forward support. He broke up plays in the defensive zone and won a few battles below the Oilers goal line and started the breakout.
That was a dominant 2-way performance from Drai last night, in my opinion.
I’m not positive that Sean Walker is an upgrade on Ceci. I know, he’s having a big season with the Flyers and is actually playing alot against elites but he has never played tough minutes before this season and I’m not sure this isn’t an aberration – was he not a cap dump this off-season?
I’m not saying I’m not interested in the player but not necessarily sure it would be a Ceci upgrade – he doesn’t have the tough minutes history that Ceci does. Would be great to add to the group but not sure he’d be playing with Nurse in Ceci’s current role.
Is Deharnais too important on the PK to take out of the lineup?
His expected goals against at 5 on 5 are elite (but that is 3rd pairing comp mostly and there is a long history of 3rd pairing d-man having plus analytics due to QoC – Vinny is 29% TOI vs. elites and 5-8 goals).
I also don’t really have an interest in Jake Allen with his contract – even if the Habs retained, I’m not sure I want it on the books.
I agree I’m grateful LT isn’t our GM. Move Kulak for…whatever, replace him with Broberg. Save some cash. Then add picks and XB, or Savoi and whatever other manic beans we have to add Fluery. Pick up Perry. Use Holloway as a 4th line center and Bobs your uncle. I think Holland and his staff are pretty good at what they do and I simply trust and wonder what they’ll do. I was certainly happy picking up #14!
Watching last night’s game, how nice would Larsson in Ceci’s spot look. Not that it’s possible, but that would be a rock solid group.
Gagner in for Erne helps but, end of the day having Holloway and _____ in (with Erne and Habmlin out and Ganer as 13F) is likely the way to go. I don’t know if _____ will be Perry or Maroon or Monohan or Evans but I think there will be an add that helps the bottom six.
Evans IMO would be the best option
The question is if Pickard will be able to keep up a solid level of play (giving the team a real chance to win pretty much every time he plays) when the 2nd goalie will need to play much more come mid-February.
Pickard has been solid in a true back-up role getting spot-started but the job will be different come mid-February.
The Oilers will NEED to give Skinner more games off.
Can Pickard keep up current level of play with more games?
Can Pickard help the team at least tread water if Skinner gets banged up and is out for 2-3 weeks?
Expectations were so high on this team over the summer, that already by the time the Jets beat Edmonton in OT and the Oilers fell to 1-4, they were playing so badly that most had lost hope on the season after a mere 5 games. If you go back and read some of the comments as well as the general disposition around this blog, whew it was dark for a while there. Anyway, after that Jet’s game:
“It is not a time to panic. It is time to make your peace with the inevitable.” — Lowetide
(SUNDAY MORNING COMING DOWN, October 22, 2023)
https://lowetide.ca/2023/10/22/sunday-morning-coming-down-6/#comment-1238159
If I am honest I was never was sure I would be revisiting that bookmark, but I was saving it for the day. And today is that day.
Count me as one of the dooms dayers!
Trade Bouchard! Trade Broberg! Trade Nurse! McDavid is running the team and we’re set for failure!
I love to be proven wrong. I really do. It’s our greatest opportunity to learn.
Systems and player fits.
The biggest reason for optimism around this team is that they seem to have solved the zone defense. The solution ironically helps in two ways. The solution is to win the puck along the backwall and get it back up high, to the defense, as quickly as possible. “Getting the puck deep” not only helps with offense but it avoids the shit like early last night where they got counterpunched to death. It was like the perfect alarm clock going off saying…oh yeah…let’s get the puck in behind the defense instead of trying spin moves off the rush.
When they do get it behind the D they hunt with as many guys as it takes and (usually) rim it around to the weak side defense and that’s when the magic happens. They now bring a forward way up high creating two-on-ones on the wingers. They aren’t settling for Darnell Nurse wrist shots. Their movement is allowing 97/29 to attack downhill or Evan Bouchard to rip one-timers through screens. He has twice as many 90+mph slap shots than second place. That’s less about his shot being better and more about the opportunity. Their five-on-five play actually looks like a powerplay. I don’t mean in dominance. I mean stylistically. There’s so much less randomness than Todd McLellan’s standard setup with points shots floating in through traffic.
The only downside is that of the top-2 groupings the puck often ends up in the hands of Codi Ceci in prime scoring areas and we know how that ends. Don’t get me wrong, Ceci is a fine defender and would be more valuable than Evan Bouchard if he played for the Kings (actually bad example as they have their Ceci types on the left to stand up against the rush and let Doughty retrieve but he’d be a perfect fit on some team for sure). But I think this team and this system is a Ceci+ for Jake Chychrun trade away from having TWO 65% xGF% units. You get that, only luck and goaltending can prevent a Cup.
This system is built around 97 and 29 attacking the wingers up high. It requires puck retrievers which is why Hyman and Foegele are great fits and Brown was a smart target. It requires SMART offensive defensemen who want the puck on their stick like Bouchard and Ekholm and Nurse who has shown incredible progress under Coffey. The third role is the Nuge role. He can do puck retrieval and can also keep plays going on those high 2-on-1’s. Kane…I’m not sure he’s a fit as he’s a bit more Sharks style fire pucks to the net guy. We’ll see. A guy like Kucherov would be the apex of this player type. I’m not sure who might be an upgrade stylistically on Kane but I’m sure they’ll give him another playoff run as he’s such a unique player as a Plan B in case this whole project goes south.
Love your insights into the game, knighttown. You offer a nuance for the game that I simply don’t have, but enjoy reading.
Chychrun was obviously discussed at length when he was traded to Ottawa. From purely online reading, many suggest he struggles on the right side. Not sure if that’s true or not.
Who are some other candidates that may fit as a partner for Nurse…maybe some lower profile options? What are your thoughts on players like Durzi, Boqvist, and Carrier?
The Oilers have a 22-year old D wasting away on the vine in Bakersfieldaville.
A left shot who can play the right side for no assets out, cheaper than LS Provorov, and cheaper and better on the right side than Chychrun.
Broberg is not the answer. Nor is he wasting away anywhere.
Expecting Broberg to be an upgrade to Ceci, playing 20 minutes a night paired with Nurse against tough competition would not be placing him in a position to succeed. Especially in the playoffs.
Ideally, Broberg is Kulak’s replacement on the left side. Eventually Ekholm’s, if all goes well.
If the Oilers can make a smart RHD acquisition that’s a long term, cost effective solution, the D would be set up for a long, long time. Thus, my question to knighttown.
Broberg screams top 4 potential but its hard to test the waters given how tight things are with the playoff race. I feel when Kulak was banged up it would have been a good time to check to see what we have. If he had a good outcome perhaps move Kulak for a pick and cap space……
I would really like to know how one objectively comes to the conclusion that Philip Broberg is “better than” Jacob Chycrun at 1RD.
I’m a Broberg fan and a proponent (and have always thought Chychrun was over-rated and never on board with the Oilers spending the assets it would cost to acquire him) of his but lets not totally disregard reality here.
Would you trade Phillip Broberg for Jeff Chychrun? #OneForOne
Answer my question first – they aren’t related.
Chychrun is a left shot D and Ceci is a right shot, probably not a good idea for experiment, where is a player strong, look when KK moved Foegele to his dominant side, huge difference. Do we even know if Chychrun can play on his offside hand? Just saying…..
Team defence matters and the Oiler forwards have been helping to get it done. (Ales In Chains rightly noted – see below – Leon’s major contribution in this area last night.)
Since December 25th (10 games)
Since November 11th (29 games since the coaching change)
GD is, to me, that Stat that matters most – if you score more you win more!
‘Defence wins Championships’ is a phrase bandied about usually by teams with no offence. The current Oilers will get their goals of that there is no doubt – so if they can continue to play solid team D well …. I am feeling more confident in Stanley this year than ever before.
I saw Leon doing serious backchecking last night. Amazing.
Totally agree. I’m old so all these fancy stats like “expected this or that” is non-sense. GD is really the only stat needed to determine if a team is playing the “right way”
As noted by others, the relentless backcheck may be the biggest improvement over the past month. Rarely does a player cross our blueline unimpeded from behind. It has also allowed the defence to step up and disrupt more plays.
The level of compete and commitment is sky high at the moment
“You drive the sports car for fun, but you need a three-quarter ton with plenty of loading room for other activities.” —
That made me Laugh. Thanks LT 🙂
If skinner goes down do you have a goalie that you can run 10 games in a row?
Nope
I can’t see Holland staying put.
and if you say 10 games in a row you crazy?
Im talking playoffs!! Playoffs!
Campbell not trustworthy, Rodrigue too inexperienced. Pickard played ok but I wouldn’t be comfortable him starting a game
I could see a Mrazek pickup here
Otherwise Perry and Holloway for forward pickups and depth forward
Id love a Ceci upgrade but given his continued deployment in that role I don’t think we will get that
I also believe the Oilers should be looking at upgrading the backup.
Oilers would not fare well if Skinner falters or gets injured.
But so would 11,12, 13 other playoff teams
Most teams don’t have a career Ahler as a backup
Jack Adams: Tochett> K.K > Torts. I wonder what the odds were of Coach K.K winning this award to begin the year. This could be the longest long shot in the history of long shots. This long shot would be akin to The Great White Hope Willie DeWit beating Iron Mike Tyson in his prime.
Nice.
I haven’t thought about Wille DeWitt in years.
Brings to mind Scotty Bulldog… what was his last name?
Olson.
Yeah, that’s it.
Scotty was such a good soul he was always out and about town and would talk to any common folk at length. The quickness of his punches was amazing to see live he was so tiny but he had the fastest hands possibly in the free world.
The Jack Adams Trophy is a thing you wish for your worst enemy coach. Give it to Bruce Cassidy.
PK Subban and Dennis Wideman are both fighting all of Oilville on Twitter.
The two have a combined hockey IQ of 7.
Who cares?
I like the walker idea but Philly is on a roll and looks like they might take the division away from Rags in short order. There is no chance they downgrade anything on that roster IMO.
Exactly – why would the other team do this deal?
Also Sean Walker is the most over rated d-man in the league this year. No tiny defenseman please.
Ya sometimes I think LT makes these suggestions just to stir up shit and get a conversation moving. But if you’re going to stir up shit you should have to lick the spoon!
It was sometimes (often) stated that Woody was “out-coached” in a game or a series or whatever. Personally, I never really participated in that as I don’t think I have even close to an adequate knowledge base as to what goes in to “in-game coaching”. I think some/many speak to line combinations and deployment and seem to asses coaching based primarily of that and, to me, that is overly-simplified.
This in no way is intended to be a rag on Woody or to say that the current coach is “better” but one thing that we heard about Knoblauch when he was hired is that he was adept at “in-game adjustments” and I think we might be seeing that in spades in recent weeks.
I’m not talking about switching/forming lines or even working for match-ups but I’m talking about structural play. I think Coach might be adept at assessing how the other team is playing, perhaps taking about the Oilers preferred break out through the middle or how the cycle in the offensive zone and making really systematic zone play adjustments thought a game.
I’m not even close to smart enough on this type of technical aspect of the game to really provide an opinion here – this is a Bruce Curlock type area (and some others in this community) – but I think this coach is making a difference with his real/tactical in-game adjustments.
I think you are right on this, though as you state it is just what we think we see and how it is working out (the Highlander with 29/97 turned out to be a good move).
A good comparison to this is Ryan Huska (Calgary Flames). With home-ice-advantage he had his 3rd pairing out multiple times against Matthews last night and well ….. we saw how that ended up.
KK keeps bring it and it appears that the players really believe – so that matters the most. Wins will come when everyone is playing a system that they trust.
I don’t even think it’s that complex. I just think KK knows when to tell the team to push and when to hold back, and he knows who to deploy in those moments.
Where Woodcroft used more of a formula, KK is reading and reacting to the game that is occurring in front of him.
Recipe for success with this highly talented team.
I think it is more complex that that.
For example, I think there are times that the Oilers struggle in the first where the opposition has pre-scouted and is taking away their preferred breakout up the middle or high forward zone cycle, or whatever, and there are real tactical adjustments from the coach.
I could be wrong.
It looked like the Oilers in a conscious effort decided to move the puck quicker up the ice in the 2nd period as well as more stretch headman passes.
I was a coach once. Being a lazy git i simply took the better players and let them save the team, and it worked until we played a team that really knew what they were doing.
Woody used the same exact formula – riding McDraisaitl into the ground. Then 2 seasons running in playoffs the Oilers met a team that wasn’t going to lose unless the entire team was functioning(like it is today), and the Oilers lost in a big fat hurry.
No need to thank me.
The George Burnett Cult lives on just like the Woody Cult.
Everyone is going to look at Leon’s 4 points, but it was his backchecking that I noticed and appreciated. There were at least a half a dozen plays where he hunted down the man with the puck and just took it from him like he was a child. It looked like the same killer instinct he has in the o-zone. It was fantastic to see, and it was extremely frustrating for the Seattle forwards.
Agreed. It was very noticeable and shows that the team is “buying into” what it takes.
When you look at how St. Louis won a few years back, there always seemed to be 4 guys back (2D, 2F) taking away passing lanes in the d-zone. Oilers have figured this out.
13-1 on the dot too. Drai had an absolute beast of a game.
Where has all the “trade Foegele” talk gone?
Or the “Connor McGM stopped Foegele from being traded and McGM is ruining the team with this meddling” talk.
If he is McGMing then please, let’s let him continue McGMing some more! McLovin’ it and all these kinds of things.
We can’t afford him next year pump and dump. His value will never be higher if a actual trade makes our team better now and next year.
Get good players, keep good players. If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it. We will just have to agree to disagree on the value of Foegele. I think we would trade anybody if it made our team better now and in the future.
Vladimir Tarasenko
It is still around…he hasn’t yet scored a hat trick!
The Ekholm of this trade deadline is Ivan Provorov.
He is a LHD defenseman that has played the right side.
Through a trade with retained salary his cap through next year is $4.725M
27 years old, 6′ 1, 220lbs, 576 NHL games
On a non playoff team which he arguably is the 4th defenseman
CBJ have room to retain salary
5v5 he is playing 14:59 TOI and 23:59 for the TOI
A first, Kulak and Savoie
Nurse-Provorov
Ekholm-Bouchard
Broberg-Ceci
Vinny
I’m really not into defenders playing backhand in the top two pairings. It’s one of the reasons I hated seeing Broberg being played right side, he’s just so much better on the left side. Yes I know he’s played right side at various levels – I’d counter that with none of those other levels being the NHL.
I’ll say no to trading for Provorov if he’s going to be playing right side in the top 4.
If we’re upgrading on Ceci it has to be for a right shot defender – TBD on who that is.
Corey Perry, if he came here, would come here at league minimum, so it wouldnt cost anything, it would just bounce Erne or Ganger to the minors. Cap in , cap out
Maybe a trade to a get a bottom 6 center.
They are tight against the cap, so I dont think the Oilers will do much around the trade deadline, unless a major injury to a core supporting player ( RNH, Nurse, Ekholm) happens. Then there could be some moving pieces which could include the 1st round pick.
The major surgery like getting rid of Campbells contract ( that will be a buyout) trading Kulak, Ceci contracts will happen in the summer.
Very reasonable and realistic take, Padre. They might also look at adding a depth defenseman or maybe they can swing something for backup goaler on an expiring deal. I also like LT’s speculation that perhaps the org is considering Holloway for the 4C role. That’s a definite possibility too with him presently taking reps at C in Bako.
Holloway will bounce Erne to the minor leagues but, yes, there could/should be an additional forward that bumps Hamblin off the roster and Gagner to 13F – in my opinion.
I absolutely agree that moving the Campbell contract between now and March 8 is all but an impossibility.
I’m not sure they will “be quiet” around the deadline but its going to take some surgery to the roster to add any material player and I’m not sure its warranted.
Another great win. Nice to see Kane have a great game. That limp they showed with him walking out to the ice is nasty. Maybe after the Flames game sit him down.
I had a prediction before the season that Kane would go on LTIR around the trade deadline and make a miraculous recovery for game 1 of the playoffs. I’m thinking it’s getting more likely.
Don’t let Vegas know or they might just do something like that!
Ekholm didn’t have a great game last night, to my eye. Listening to him post-game and he sounds like shit – I think he’s clearly under the weather and was battling through last night.
Wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Kemp for Broberg swap today/tomorrow.
I hope someone can provide some clarity on a play from last night.
How can the NHL have it both ways? If you are changing on the fly and it is not too many men then how can this player being offside matter?
It’s because the too many men rule requires someone on the offending team to make a play on the puck/an opposing player in order to be penalized. Until that happens a player is basically in a state of limbo where they can only enter/exit the bench until their teammate has finished doing the opposite.
Offside is simply just “is there a player across the blue-line before the puck is carried in?”, regardless of what the player is doing at that point in time.
Rule 74 – Too Many Men on the Ice
“If in the course of making a substitution, either the player entering the game or the player retiring from the ice surface plays the puck with his stick, skates or hands or who checks or makes any physical contact with an opposing player while either the player entering the game or the retiring player is actually on the ice, then the infraction of “too many men on the ice” will be called.”
To add to this comment – there is typically a metre or two grace zone where players can overlap during the substitute without being called for too many men (if neither touches the puck).
Also, there are certain rinks where the bench doors are further inside the blue line which can result in more offsides – as we saw last night. The player exiting the ice lingers while waiting for the door to open/other player leaves the bench. Coaches hate this play – they want players to rush off the ice and/or jump the boards. But this can result in injury. IIRC, Gagner had his wrist cut by a teammate jumping the boards.
Thanks!
The refs call this offside almost weekly in my kid’s hockey. I had to laugh when I saw it in an NHL game with a goal called back.
I hope we can
allagree the main factor this version of the team needs to improve upon is spotting the opponent the first and/or second goal lead. Otherwise this team is fire. Holy hell is it fun to watch the composure thereafter though.I know earlier this season, after the terrible start, LT had discussed fatigue for the club in climbing from the depths. I’m sure some have used the Google in the same way I did last night, searching for longest NHL winning streak. It’s 17 if you didn’t know, and Francis did comment on the concerns of our host in the article for those interested. Luckily, we are only at the halfway point, so this shouldn’t be an issue heading into the postseason as it was for Francis.
https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/kraken/meaning-of-win-streaks-in-nhl-such-as-krakens-recent-9-gamer-is-up-for-debate/
See you March 2nd Yanni Gourde!
I’m not sure I do agree as I think the “getting scored on first” is a recent thing and, for most of the season, they’ve actually been good earlier in the game. In fact, I recall hearing/reading they led the league in first period goals (this was a few weeks ago) and I recall lots of early leads in October that they blew threw the game.
Of course, recent trend – absolutely – an issue.