The Edmonton Oilers have eight young forwards on the AHL Bakersfield Condors with only three of them posting offense. That’s a problem. If things continue, it’s possible we’ll see a large group of free-agent signings among veteran AHLers in the offseason. It’s been a weird year for the Bakersfield forwards.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- New DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- Lowetide: Which Edmonton Oilers prospects spiked in January?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- DNB: Oilers winning streak lives, but improvement is needed: ‘We got a lot more in our group’
- Lowetide: Why Oilers forward Sam Gagner is having success in his role
- DNB: Stuart Skinner’s superb play should give Oilers more trade deadline flexibility
- DNB: Why Oilers signing Corey Perry isn’t a surprise — even in these circumstances
- Lowetide: How the Oilers winning the Stanley Cup in 2024 could impact future
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers’ 6 biggest 2023-24 first half surprises
- DNB: Oilers win 13th straight, most by Canadian team in NHL history
- Lowetide: 5 AHL Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of NHL trade deadline]
- Lowetide: Ranking Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland’s 10 biggest moves
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
AHL PROSPECT FORWARDS PTS-GAME
- Dylan Holloway 1.00
- Raphael Lavoie 0.72
- James Hamblin 0.56
- Xavier Bourgault 0.40
- Carter Savoie 0.39
- Tyler Tullio 0.38
- Jayden Grubbe 0.29
- Matvey Petrov 0.27
The only prospect forwards scoring in Bakersfield are Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie and James Hamblin. It’s extremely unlikely any of the rest in this group makes an NHL appearance this season. There’s a significant number of signed forward prospectsl; some names are losing ground.
Bourgault, Savoie, Tullio and Noah Philp were all rookies a year ago and posted interesting numbers. Bourgault’s 0.55 pts-game suggested he might have an NHL future. Now? Not so much.
Can we find a recent example in Oilers history of a group of forward prospects this large with such unimpressive scoring numbers? Did anyone make the NHL?
1996-97 HAMILTON BULLDOGS
- C Ralph Intranuovo 68, 36-40-76 1.12 pts-game
- LW Steve Kelly 48gp, 9-29-38 .79 pts-game
- C Jason Bonsignore 78gp, 21-33-54 .69 pts-game
- LW Joe Hulbig 73, 18-28-46 .63 pts-game
- RW Georges Laraque 73gp, 14-20-34 .47 pts-game
- C Eric Landry 74gp, 15-17-32 .43 pts-game
- LW Dennis Bonvie 73gp, 9-20-29 .4 pts-game
The Bulldogs scored 220 goals in 80 games that season, 2.75 GF per game. The current Condors have scored 111 goals in 35 games, 3.17 GF per game. The best NHL future in this group belonged to Georges Laraque, who played a role that is no longer available to NHL prospects.
The Bulldogs had three forwards 24+ playing significant roles. The kids played a bunch, Laraque had six power-play goals that season. The Condors have seven.
THE 1990-00 HAMILTON BULLDOGS
- RW Daniel Cleary 58, 22-54-74 1.28 pts-game
- C Brian Swanson 69, 19-40-59 0.86 pts-game
- LW Michel Riesen 73, 29-31-60 0.82 pts-game
- RW Maxim Spiridonov 10, 5-2-7 0.70 pts-game
- C Peter Sarno 67gp 10-36-46 0.69 pts-game
- LW Dan Lacouture 70, 23-17-40 0.57 pts-game
- C Paul Comrie 12, 3-3-6 0.50 pts-game
- C Eric Houde 18, 3-4-7 .039 pts-game
- LW Jason Chimera 78gp, 15-13-28 0.36 pts-game
- RW Alexander Volchkov 25, 2-6-8 0.32 pts-game
- C Chad Hinz 18, 1-4-5 0.28 pts-game
- RW Brian Urick 14, 2-1-3 0.21 pts-game
The 99-00 Hamilton Bulldogs scored an average of 2.81 goals-per-game, again shy of the current Condors. Daniel Cleary was off his career trajectory at this point in his career but would soon recover. He was an outlier. I think he’s the only player listed in this look at several previous seasons who we can confidently say was better than Dylan Holloway.
Jason Chimera is an outlier in the other direction. However, his skill set and AHL progress are a clue for us. Chimera had one grand skill (speed) and learned where the goals were scored. He was never a brilliant two-way winger, and I would suggest “middle-six” is the best description of his spot in the batting order, but he had a career.
Here’s a look at the NHL men developed in the AHL, and how long it took them to get there.
There are 22 names here. One player (Miro Satan) spent a portion of one season in the AHL before being elevated. Four more men (Shawn Horcoff, Jarret Stoll, Anton Slepyshev, Kailer Yamamoto) made the jump after two seasons. A total of 11 men made it in year four, leaving six players lagging before breaking through.
What did those lollygaggers have in common? Well, in all honesty, foot speed was an issue for Colin McDonald, Chris VandeVelde and Tyler Benson. Injuries had an impact on Benson, Tyler Pitlick and JF Jacques. Steve Kelly and Jacques were fine to excellent skaters, but “hockey sense” drifted in and out. Let’s have a look at the current group and see if we can find comparables.
- Raphael Lavoie best comp: Jani Rita, with honorable mentions to Steve Kelly and Kyle Brodziak. Rita is a good style match in that both men possessed terrific shots. Lavoie is not fast nor a center, so Rita is the best comp. He did not have an NHL career of note.
- James Hamblin best comp: A split decision. No one who played in the NHL for an extended period is a match for Hamblin. Makes sense due to his average offense. Georges Laraque and Chris VandeVelde are a somewhat acceptable math match, while also being a terrible style match.
- Dylan Holloway best comp: Ryan McLeod. I considered both Marc Pouliot (he was an excellent prospect) and Kyle Brodziak, but the math was similar for all three and Holloway’s style match with McLeod is top dead centre.
- Xavier Bourgault best comp: Kyle Brodziak. The math match is Lavoie, but he’s a contemporary and makes it less fun. Brodziak had the same kind of two-way rep Bourgault now owns, perhaps even more pronounced. Bourgault will make these comps look better if he spikes offensively.
- Carter Savoie best comp: Colin McDonald, who style wise is a nice match for Lavoie. Confused? Exactly. I think Savoie’s injury obscures what he is, and if he can post something like .6 pts-game this season, the comps will be stronger.
- Tyler Tullio best comp: Colin McDonald. You’d like it to be Pisani, but the young man doesn’t get much of a push.
- Jayden Grubbe best comp: Brad Winchester. I like that comp a lot, actually.
- Matvey Petrov best comp: Jason Chimera. I think there’s no real way to project Petrov based on his AHL season. He simply doesn’t play enough for us to grab an idea about him.
I’m left with two thoughts. First, after all the great prospects over the last 15 years, it’s difficult to get excited about this group. It’s like putting the Allmans “Win, Lose or Draw” on the turntable instead of “Idlewild South”. Second, the comps for the current group may be shy, simply because the prospects don’t get much playing time. There’s a lot of them, that has an impact. It’s also true that Bakersfield’s coaching staff is playing the hell out of Drake Caggiula and Seth Griffith. I thought the idea behind signing Lane Pederson was to get a strong pivot for the kid wingers. Not so.
A busy day on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. We’ll be joined by Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal, and discuss the Oilers, the deadline and the state of the team’s pipeline. Dunkin’ with Declan debuts, as we double dribble and travel re: NBA. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Nucks going all in. Not too surprising if you see the eleven re-signs they need after this year and Petterson and Hronek are going to get paid.
I personally love watching Pacific teams hollow themselves out for one shot.
Bodes well for the medium term.
Well maybe Conroy does hate the Oilers that much – seems like they are determined to stop the Oilers by giving their team away to Vancouver. A sad franchise with such a massive inferiority complex. Will be funny when Vancouver “flames out” in the first round like BOS last year and see all those assets go up in smoke.
No steady as she goes in Oilerville. Keep playing Coach K hockey which directly translates to the playoffs. Tanev would be nice but I agree they will never trade him to us. We can drive up the price for others though! Henrique is too expensive. Dowd is a guy who can help the 4th line and he’s signed cheap for one more year. Built for the playoffs and he’s scored more 5×5 goals than Monahan this year in way fewer minutes. Janmark-Dowd-Brown would be our zero line. Ryan and Gags are great insurance.
Broberg is quality at #7 defense (better than anyone we could trade for without costing an arm & leg) abd Campbell will fine as a backup with Pickard. No sense wasting assets on defense or goal when our depth is good and the adds won’t make us any better. Dowd is my hard target as RH 4C is our last gap.
Dowd is getting fed on CorsiRel, absolutely smoked on DFFrel, and running an all time PDO heater to stay in the black on GF% on a middling team.
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8475343
Having said that, he’s not being sheltered one iota. Perhaps a bit more sensible deployment would yield better results in EDM. I’m more inclined to get a guy like Dowd than Monahan, but I think Evans might be more suitable/attainable.
As I posted a few days ago – pull him away from his most common 4th linemates and all those metrics correct to above team average.
I dunno. Dowd without the others is not even 70 minutes. And his time with them is the source of his PDO heater.
Beyond that, if you look at all his other recent seasons, Dowd’s numbers crater away from his former main linemate (Hathaway).
Big red flags for me, personally.
Lindholm would have been nice but I think I prefer the storyline where Flame fave Mony comes to deliver a cup in Edmonton.
So Vancouver gets:
a) Lindholm, a proven top line forward
b) 650K cap space this year
c) 5.5 million cap space next year, to re-sign Lindholm or another impact player (instead of being stuck with a stubborn 28 y/o on an expiring contract and no consistent success).
In the event of Lindholm re-signing, Calgary basically gave Vancouver the ability to sign an impact player that will help destroy their rebuilding squad for several years
Calgary gets:
a) 1st round draft pick in the 20-32 range – 50-60% chance of >99 game career
b) 75th overall pick Brzustewicz, playing above expectations in draft+1 year, but draft spot gives him ~30% chance of >99 game career
Note: we have seen excitement before re: Oilers late round picks tearing up OHL, with no subsequent successful career
c) 82nd overall pick Jurmo, with draft spot giving him ~20-30% chance of >99 game career
e) Kuzmenko, currently overpaid and at best, re-establishes offensive consistency such that at next year’s trade deadline he can be traded (with salary retention) for more draft picks, likely outside the first round
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/#:~:text=If%20you%20want%20to%20take,at%20least%20300%20games%20played)
I know Lindholm is a “rental,” but the return appears rich in quantity, not quality. Too bad Petrov wasn’t tearing it up in the OHL this season, or else maybe Edmonton could have pulled off a similar trade
Agree it’s a good move for Vancouver, if they can resign Lindholm. It doesn’t make as much sense for us as we can’t afford to resign him. Maybe it’s possible but we already have McDavid, Drai and Bouchard to sort out. Oilers move is either reasonably priced rental or a player with term and a good contract.
The Lindholm deal is further reason for Holland to go out and get a goal scoring winger for Leon. All things being equal, RNH-McDavid-Hyman is better than the Lotto line. Leon is a vastly superior player to Lindholm but getting a scoring winger for Leon’s wing would make the Oilers a matchup nightmare for every team in the league.
Petrov scores a Drai-like goal to give the Condors the lead with 22 seconds left in the second – a one-timer from the goal line near the board – pass from Broberg (who made some wonderful plays skating the puck on the shift)
5 pts in last 5 games for him. His OHL seasons were great and hopefully they play him more
Griffth snipes a PPG from the top of the circles – Broberg and Lavoie with the assists.
Nice trade for both teams. I am jealous. I wanted Lindholm.
Do the Phlegms finally go full rebuild? Hanafin and Tanev could fetch a tasty return.
Lindholm’s numbers are pretty underwhelming this year but I imagine he bounces back on a quality Canucks team + being coached by the world’s greatest hockey coach ever who has broken the physics of hockey should help too.
Tocchet had a PDO below 1 both years that he coached Tampa.
In Arizona, they had a 1.002 PDO in 2019-20, but were otherwise below 1 every other season.
Last year after he took over from Boudreau, the Canucks had a .996 PDO.
Oddly, he didn’t apparently discover the secret of breaking PDO records until this season.
Coaches and players evolve.
Demko was poor last season recovering from injury….spectacular this season.
Last year, Tocchet had a 8.94 shooting percentage. This season, it’s 11.82. It’s more than just a goaltending bump.
It’s unlikely for an individual team to maintain a PDO that is high above the norm. However, it is very likely that a team or two will have a high PDO and another team or two that will have a low PDO when we look at the league as a whole.
The high PDO team(s) (or their fans) always try to justify how the unsustainably high PDO is really sustainable this time due to factors x, y and z. Sometimes the PDO stays high for the year but invariably over the long term it regresses.
The whole argument every year boils down to “trust me bro, its different this time”
Someone (ages ago) pointed out that the Jack Adams winner was often the team with an unsustainably high PDO. Put your money on Tocchet?
I like the return the Flames got. Unsure o
about the prospects but it seems like there is a little quality there. Kuzmenko might be a fit with Huberdeau, and if they click Calgary has another asset to trade at the deadline next year as well.
Wonder if Lindholm still reps the Flames at the ASG- it would be classy for Van to allow him to do that as a send off for the Flames. He’s built his career in Calgary.
Horvat wore an Islanders jersey at the ASG last year. I want Lindholm to wear the Canucks jersey just to troll Flames fans whose team is so bad that the NHL conspired to make sure that their jersey was no where to be found at this years ASG.
1st and 4th and beans for a top end RS C
Is that snoring I hear?
One of the ‘beans’ is a 3rd round pick from last year who’s #1 among D and #3 in overall OHL scoring.
Looks to me like a pretty similar price as was paid for Ekholm, but with only 33 guaranteed games for the return instead of 250 or so.
I do think there’s a good chance Lindholm re-signs with the Sedin’s in Vancouver, so I don’t think it’s a bad trade. If he does walk though, and the Canucks don’t bring home their first Cup… well, it will end up being a very poor value trade.
Brzustewicz is definitely a shoot for the moon type pick up.
I’m unsure whether he has a lot of polish in his game.
However, he definitely has a lot of Polish in his name.
The real risk of this trade for the Canucks is if they sign Lindholm to a long-term deal. Whoever signs him is going to overpay big-time.
Damn
WTF…..the Canucks?
https://x.com/nhlflames/status/1752873057394610295?s=46&t=VKZ79-9hN-xwMNTBjohq7w
its done.
As expected for a trade at this time for a rental. They paid in full
Actually on second thought they did pretty well. Did a good job keeping their best prospect. I guess it all depends if Brzustewicz who is killing it this season becomes a legit defenseman or a Brandt Clarke type
HH is probably worried Brogran Rafferty is involved.
Flames and Canucks trading twice within the same season seems bizarre.
What! You can trade with teams in your division!!
I asume you mean the serial killer since hockey player is now in the Detroit organization.
Stevie Y sure knows his hockey.
No, I was making a joke that involved you not knowing Rafferty was no longer in the Canucks employ.
lol. Incredible.
Haha. Congrats 🎉 on Lindholm.
Honestly, I had nothing to with trade, but he’s a perfect addition and the trade frees up some cap space for a RHD.
I’m aware of that. I was just congratulating you as you’re a fan of the Canucks.
Lindholm to the Canucks. Kuzmenko to Flames
Watch it fall through when Kuzmenko doesn’t waive
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
Told that Kuzmenko has officially signed off on his NTC to accept a trade to Calgary.
From Elliotte Friedman: There is word tonight talks between Vancouver and Calgary are intensifying around Elias Lindholm. We will see where it goes.
Lavoie is schedule to play tonight!
Also, Holloway NOT playing.
it’s looking like his assignment may have been cap structuring only. Maybe they think the injury risk outweighs the playing gains?
Tulio not playing. He’s banged up from his fight but could play on the weekend.
LT tweeted yesterday that he expects the org to acquire a “famous name” at the deadline as he perceives that as Holland’s MO.
I think a robust case could be made that the org has already acquired a famous name from The Guide and Record Book, just ten days ago, so I’m not sure exactly what LT means by his tweet. Maybe he means a present star.
Also, I’m not certain how strong his premise is. In 2022, the Oil acquired Kulak, a solid add, but by no means a famous player. Brassard not really either. The year before they added Kulikov, probably more famous than Kulak, but by no means the most famous even in a year that saw one of the fewest trades in deadline history.
Ekholm, from this point of view, looks like a one-off, nor was Ekholm really a star. Two other defensemen on his team were more “famous.” But he was exactly what the Oilers needed. One could more easily make the case that any deadline acquisition is likely to be a defenseman with a “K” or two in their name than be famous
I think need and cap space are likely far more fundamental to any possible acquisition than fame. But if we accept LT’s premise, Stauff has been bleating the need for a real 2RW over any other need for some time. I don’t agree with him. I think like 2RD, it would be a nice have, but nowhere near an urgent need. It’s tough to make a case for any “urgent” need with the team racking up wins like Gretz did points.
Famous in the here and now also means expensive cap hit.I think the Oil would love to add someone like Tarasenko for eg. Or maybe Perron. But the cap issue seems insurmountable and also precludes filling any other depth holes. Sprong is cheaper and younger, but DRW are in the thick of the playoff race and the player is also basically Foegele. Doesn’t seem likely. Creating large amounts of space means a game of whack-a-mole as you try to cover the holes you just made… and you’re turning over a significant part of the roster right before the playoffs,
I think with Perry, Foegele and Brown the Oilers have the slot covered well enough to muddle through. There are no perfect rosters any more. I do wonder who is out there that might be good enough to fill this role, be a cost effective add, and be available. Right now I don’t see that player.
If it’s someone famous, it’s someone really old and cheap. Maybe a goalie and the only one that qualifies for LT’s premise is MAF. But that would mean the Oilers would have to be his choice, and we’d still need to somehow find the cap space without creating another hole. It could be done with retention but that means another asset. This could get done, but really relies on MAF basically demanding a trade to the Oil.
Still, he looks like the closest player to fulfilling LT’s premise.
Green, Keith were both famous names. Ennis, Athanasiou, Bjugstad, all known but to a lesser extent — probably the Kulikov bracket.
I don’t think LT is too far off in his assessment. By Holland’s own admission, he likes resumes. It’s more likely that Holland will get someone we’re familiar with, than a new name who surprises (IE Maroon for Gernat+).
Perron would be an incredible add, but agree he’d be expensive/unlikely. I’m all in on the Tarasenko train, he seems like an ideal 2RW target and I bet he’d cost a lot less than Guentzel.
I agree, I expect it will be MAF. After spending a crazy amount of roster scouring, I wonder if there is consideration of also picking up Ryan Hartman to play 2RW. He has a surprisingly small cap hit, can score and is tenacious.
This would mean that Foegele would have to be moved.
For me they could use a 4 C, maybe a 3C. If Kane Brown Holloway can get going probably good at wing
They have a lot of NHL forwards. They are thin on injury cover at D outside of Bro
Is there a goalie that isn’t expensive playing better than Pick? Fleury isn’t this season. Campbell has played better so I’m not sure adding a goalie makes sense
I think with MAF, it would be the been-there-done-that factor. Much like Perry.
Campbell’s numbers look better , but still looks like he’s letting softies in. For sure 1 last night and in the previous game, glove side.
Open-corsi darling defenseman Kevin Gravel has recently signed a two year, two way deal in NSH, for an AAV of $762,500.
Another deadline option would be Mantha from Washington. A Ufa winger in need of a reboot with a history of heavy play and goal scoring. Been rough in Washington for him but some new centers might be what the doc ordered. Likely price is a 2nd with prospect to get 50% retained. This would push Holloway out again but injuries will happen. Mantha might work going forward as well. Likely to look for a 1 year deal to rehab his value before looking for a retirement contract. If he signs for 3 million that would replace Foegle without giving a raise.
Campbell gets the start so the plan is likely for him to play 2 of the next 3.
This is a pivot back and notable, in my opinion.
As long as they continue to give Rodrigue his fair share of starts, I’m not overly adverse to Jack getting his fair share as well down the stretch.
Truth be told, Jack up for the playoffs, fully confidant after playing well for a long time in the AHL, as 3G option is something – he has had a few runs of real success in the playoffs.
Or rehabilitating his value for a trade.
I think there is a better chance he plays in the playoffs for the Oilers than being traded this season.
There is a 0.01% chance Campbell plays a playoff game. The organization does not trust him.
How about Larsson for RD?
You’re kidding, right?
On a lighter topic, I was reading an article and comments on rules changes recently and did some picking and choosing to form a list of possible rule changes I’d like to see:
1. POINTS SYSTEM: 3 for Regulation win, 0 for regulation loss, 2 for 3-on-3 OT win, 1 for 3-on-3 OT loss. No shootout.
2. PP: Either a full 2-minute PP regardless of whether a PP goal is scored, or the PP over but the player still sits in the box for 2 minutes. Also, the PP ends if there is a Shorty. The player still sits in the box.
3. PK Icing: No icing during PK. If not that then there is no icing in the final 2 minutes of the game. If not that, then make PK team have to gain the blueline instead of red line but icing is still in effect.
4. 3-on-3 OT: once the O-Zone is gained, the team cannot exit the zone or play is called and faceoff in their D-zone.
5. Play to whistle after the timer counts down to zero every period. Eliminates goals being canceled at the buzzer.
6. OT penalties are 3-on-2 instead of 4-on-3, but penalties are only 1 minute in OT.
7. Switch sides for OT period so the long change is in effect. (see the bench rule #10 that would negate this)
8. Change the puck over the glass to a 1-minute penalty.
9. Widen the Bluelines to 6 feet. more room in the O-zone, offsides would be way less often, and tagging up would be easier. You could even change the offside rule so that teammates can enter the zone once the puck carrier touches the outside of the blue paint. The puck just has to reach the blue paint. This one might take a lot of tweaking. Bobby Smith proposed this about 20 years ago.
10. Put Players’ Benches on opposite sides of the ice at center so there is no long change. Would make for fewer too many player calls, fewer offsides, fewer whistles. Sometimes players just get a whistle in the 2nd period to get off the ice.
11. Again, no shootout.
Thoughts?
Disagree with all of them, the overriding notion being that they feel like proposed solutions to non-existent problems.
1) I’m not in favour of a three point system, of any iteration. It would completely mess with the context of any season point totals that came before, for one thing. I’d rather get rid of the Bettman point altogether and put the emphasis on winning.
9) Off-side calls need some kind of reform, but this isn’t the solution any more than making the nets bigger to increase scoring (which has been trending up since that was a hot topic). I was really hoping the sensors in the pucks and jerseys would solve this issue, perhaps the technology still lags.
Yeah, I get that. Why mess with what is the best sport. But, that said, the game has made many improvements over the years. Delayed offside and touch up. Icing. 4-on-4 and then 3-on-3 OT. Two line pass. All in the name of improving what many thought didn’t need improving. For the most part, they did improve the game.
I think ties were a real problem for decades until 2005 as teams started playing it safe to get at least the one point toward the end of a tie game. Then not enough ties were getting settled in overtime, so they switched it up again. But by going to a shootout and giving a point to the loser, they created a points system that really messes with history. Previously, until 2005, there were always 2 points available for every game. Either 2 for a win, or 1 for each team in a tie. But now you never know how many points are available. The three point system would go back to a known amount of points available for each game. No extra points awarded to the loser. The new 3 point system would actually translate back to the old pre-2005 system more accurately than what we’ve had since the looser point system started. You simply multiply it by 2/3 and it would compare to the old system quite accurately. The years of the shootout are the worst for comparing old stats. It will be easier to compare the 1967 to 2004 Era to the 2/3 of the 3 point system than any of the loser point shootout system years from 2005 to today.
The 3 point system would encourage teams to play for the win as there is always an extra point available. 3 for a win in regulation and 0 for the opponent means no team playing it safe in the final minutes of a tie game. But teams before and since have been happy to at least get a point for making it to OT. So they played it safe in the 80s and 90s up until today. Imagine how much Edmonton and Calgary would battle and go for it in the final minutes of a tie game when the winner gets 3 and the loser gets 0!
And once you get to overtime, then you only get maximum of 2 points, but, you still get a chance to win and limit the other team to 1 point. With no chance to still win in a shootout they aren’t as likely to play conservatively. They must go for it.
I absolutely hate shootouts. Why decide a hard fought game with a boringly slow skills competition between 2 players for a team sport that says nothing about how the team played. And the goals don’t really count towards the stats for the players. So you have a 3-2 game where the final goal doesn’t count and there are no assists. I hate hate hate it.
Truthfully, I’m not even that big a fan of 3-on-3, but at least that’s a game state that sometimes exists in the course of a game. It’s something I’m willing to give on in the interest of finding a winner in a short amount of time as it increases the odds of someone scoring.
I think if you go to 3-on-3 with a point on the line and no shootout and no time limit very few games will go longer than a few minutes. But to decrease the chance of the slow regroup OT, I think the gain the O zone and stay there rule would help. That said the points system might change that for you automatically. So make 1 rule change first to see if it takes care of things for you.
— Offside is dumb. Especially resulting in the 5 minute freeze frame reviews. Make it like soccer: you just can’t cherry pick and have to be in front of the deepest defender untill puck crosses centre line
— For power plays this helps a lot : no requirement to “clear” if the puck gets past blue line.
— The flow would be amazing.
I think the problem with a soccer type of offside is that it might even be harder to call and even harder if they are allowing video challenges for that type of offside. It’s very hard to tell who is actually in front unless you have a perfect angle and even then it’s still very hard to tell.
— In soccer it’s only called if egregious and never reviewed. Offside is consequencely a rare occurrence. The guy can linger around the defender but can’t get ahead of him, but as soon as puck goes over red line game on, max flow, which is the objective. You’re eliminating the possession aspect. In soccer you see the forward kind of roaming around the deepest defender. They aren’t monitoring to the tiny transgression.
— You just want to get rid of the arbitrary player in front of puck whistle which is nonesense except for the fact that it’s what has been done in hockey without any thought for the reason why.
— or get rid of offside concept all together: then if a team wants a guy to cherry pick they are down a man to defend when other team has pick which presents different strategies and better flow.
Of interest to me is Kakko. If the Rangers are bailing as said. Not sure how much value he has, lots of potential, not yet 23
Seems like they want to use him as trade bait for help now as they need a boost so futures probably aren’t it for them
Maybe Foggy? I’d strongly consider it if the cap allows his coming raise
Kakko could have value to a team looking to extract the player’s potential. Think Chicago or Montreal – teams that can afford to invest coaching and cycles into nurturing the player’s development, where winning isn’t the core focus of this or next season.
The Oilers have been that team for so long, but they are not that team at this time. Our lineup can accommodate proven veterans only.
It’s cup or bust
They have to think of the future as well
He’s talented, better than Lavoie, the idea is buy low for a 2 OV talent if possible
With a week before the next game…
Who wins? Oilers or Vegas?
Oilers! – thumbs up
Vegas!? – thumbs down
— This PGA golf investment where players get direct equity is interesting. I can’t imagine it working in other professional sports but what an opportunity for those golfers : between the massive purses PIP bonuses now equity : they ought to be very grateful to the Saudis…
“The Bulldogs had three forwards 24+ playing significant roles. The kids played a bunch, Laraque had six power-play goals that season. The Condors have seven.”
Tell me this is a mistake. 35 games played and they have only scored seven power play goals??!?!? What are they even doing down there???
The Oilers pro goalie depth chart has perhaps never looked better. Ryan Fanti currently sits atop the ECHL in save percentage at .950 and GAA at 1.42 (albeit a very small 2 game sample size post-injury).
The players I see as being of interest are:
RD Dumba, Walker, and Carrier
C Monahan
W Sprong
Oh, and signing Toews when he decides to come back at the deadline because Duncan Keith talked him into it.
I know Dumba isn’t a popular choice around here, but I still have time for him (wanted him in the 2012 draft).
I cannot understand the love for Monahan, however. What’s the appeal? Always appreciated your take on the draft/prospects (pretty sure you were the sole passenger on the Lavoie train like six months before the draft).
Re: Sean Monahan (or Adam Henrique)
Playing Center in the NHL is a craft. Positioning, defensive coverage, game management, faceoffs. They’re all skills that grow with a player’s experience.
Sean Monahan is like well-heeled, veteran version of Ryan McLeod, but with better offense. He’s a bit slower, but he knows where and how to play. Having a player like Monahan, or Henrique, gives the Oilers a vet in the bottom-6, and allows them to move McLeod to wing, or as a terrific 4th line center.
The appeal for Monahan specifically is his miniscule cap hit. The Oilers can add him at the deadline without having to do cap jiu jitsu. Henrique, meanwhile, is older and not as speedy as Monahan but essentially checks the same boxes. His cap is more challenging to accomodate, but not impossible.
Edmonton will acquire one of:
Lindholm
Monahan
or Henrique
or Sissons
The can’t afford to go into these playoffs without another vet center behind 97 & 29. It’s cup or bust.
What he said. re: Monahan. Not so fast, but a smart savvy vet who is back to putting up points in a less-than-ideal role. Cheap too. Also knows Alberta market and what it is like to play in it.
Is this true though?
Does he have better offence? I mean over half his goals and half his points are on the PP. Of course, PP points count, very much, but on the Oilers he will have depth PP2 time and half his offence is gone. He’s got 5 goals (5 on 5).
As far a “knowing where and how to play” – I don’t think that Monohan has every been noted as strong defensive player, in fact, quite the opposite, no?
Re: Monahan. His defensive play is overstated. Negative relative fancies in: Corsi, and Dangerous Fenwick, HDCF%, xG%. Positive GF (except against grits), sky high PDO where positive, draws more penalties than he takes.
Sources:
He’s slow, made of glass, left shot, and not known as a defensive stalwart. Great on the dot, affordable AAV. Good offensive instincts, can riff off of better players, which is borne out of his results in CGY.
He’s a pass for me. I place him solidly in the overrated bin, right beside Chychrun.
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/sean-monahan
I’ve been a fan of Henrique for years. Unfortunately I have not watch any Ducks games outside the Oilers and have no idea if he’s remotely still the same player he was. I don’t feel your list is that far off for what it’s worth.
On Montreal Monahan is sheltered and not doing well at puck IQ
I’m with you on Dumba. He’s a reasonable option that could fill that right shot veteran D that can play up the lineup slot.
Monahan, I have time for too. He’s 13-22-35 in 49 games. Yes he’s -10, but he’s also on a less than great Montreal team. He can play centre or wing. Also only $2 mill per year, so a bit easier to work into the team money wise. I’m not saying he’s who I’d go for, but he’s certainly going to have interest from a lot of teams before the deadline.
I was pretty big on Lavoie, but he still might not make it. I’m rooting for him.
I like Dumba, too. He’s not on a great team, and judging D on poor teams is sometimes hard. But he’s got skill and can eat minutes against tough competition. If they get him at the deadline and things work out, there is also a better chance of him re-signing in Edmonton as he’s a prairie kid.
On Montreal as well: What about Jake Evans? Not as big a name as Monahan but if we’re looking for a right shot centre to play on the 4th line we could do a lot worse than him. PKs, has wheels, works hard etc.
I’d still rather have Monahan, or as John Chambers mentions, Henrique. Not even sure that Evans would be available but he ticks boxes and is less than $2 mill per year.
OP was on about this guy early and having keyed in on him when we played MTL, he’s a 4C I have time for. Much better option, and more well suited to our needs.
We aren’t considering Dumba or Walker a “Ceci Upgrade” are we?
They might be because they are quicker and better puck movers, for Nurse
I doubt anything happens there
Nope. I’d consider him a Desharnais upgrade who could play a high as 1RD in a pinch. But also really good injury insurance. If a Bouchard or Ceci gets hurt who would you want to move from 3RD to 2RD or 1RD. I’d want Dumba out of all the upcoming UFA RD. Walker would be great and Carrier would be okay, too. Depending on Desharnais to move up, especially during the playoffs would be a bit scary for me. We’ve been pretty lucky with injuries this year. At some point that luck might run out. Having one of these RD would be a big deal. On LD, I think we’re pretty solid, but giving up Kulak or Broberg in a trade would put that in jeopardy.
That chart of men who made the NHL is fantastic LT. What a visual.
It also demonstrates that the Oil have let some players marinate in the AHL. Unfortunately, many did not become top 6 players.
I said this during the off-season, and also when there was a ton of talk about waiting Brown as he approached 10 games, the universally agreed upon verbal that it was going to take Brown some time to get up to speed, feeling normal physically and mentally and getting his timing and what not back, meant a couple of months, not a couple of games or weeks.
Brian Lawton said yesterday they org didn’t expect much from Brown in the first 40 games.
I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw 8-12 goals from Brown post-break (obviously working himself up from the 4th line in the process).
PLEASE!
I wouldn’t be shocked with 8-12. But my expectations are closer to 0.
Didn’t expect much for 40 games and yet are essentially paying him 4mill?
I’m not saying Lawton has it wrong, but if he has it right, I am not really sure how that flatters the org.
They are paying him 4M, just some hits the cap next season. I think Kenny bids against himself or the like. Sure other teams were interested, how many have Connor he knows and played with, and were Cup favourites offering that money?
He seems to want to pay established players, not getting that every dollar matters and he should be fair but always as low as possible, using the leverage the team finally has earned
Good vet players have earned a lot of money. Some want to win more than maximize every dollar, and that should come with a cost, it has value. Winning also has earnings value down the road, especially if they get a Cup
I would suggest that a 30 year coming off a major knee injury would certainly be drawn to guaranteed money in the post-injury contract, right?
Of course, $18MM is ALOT of money but his career earnings are not THAT high, right?
Maybe but many other teams can’t offer what the Oilers can. The days of nobody wanting to come are over. Some may not, some don’t want to go to various teams. Players into hockey first want to play with the best
I’m hoping for five.
Still waiting on one.
Having watched both Bourgault and Savoie recently in person, I think there is a reasonable probability that Savoie, if he stays healthy, could turn out as good or better than Bourgault. Savoie’s speed impreased me more than I thought it would. Bourgault has better draft pedigree so he would be more valuable as a trade chip.
Of the less famous players in BAK, Savoie, Tullio, and Petrov are the ones I figure have the best chance to beat the odds (draft position) and play in the NHL. Savoie’s playmaking is what surprised me most vis a vis his scouting reports.
Who are the dark horse candidates that stood out to you when you watched?
I think we have to add Max Wanner to that list.
Not sure if he qualifies as a dark horse, but Gleason really impressed me with his offensive skills.
We know that Laraque was very skilled without the puck (and sticks and gloves and helmet), but there is one element to his game that I loved watching…puck control. He was so strong that he could be a 1-man cycle. I think there is still room for that in today’s puck control game. If your 4th line can chew up time wearing down the D and chip in the occasional hat trick, that has value.
The best comparable I see for this on the current Oilers is actually Draisaitl.
Yeah, Laraque was a pretty effective player in addition to being terrifying.
I agree his cycling/keep away could still work today.
His career high 29 points is also more than famous 4th liners like Kolesar and Carrier have ever scored in a season.
Agreed: Laraque had an almost unique skill to keep the puck under his possession even if he had two defenders trying to pry the puck away from him — it was an under-appreciated aspect of his game.
Oilers had a strong culture of board gurus. Buchberger then Ryan Smyth then Laraque. Laraque was the peak board guru — about the same skill set as Buchberger and Smyth, but Laraque’s strength and mass added an extra element to his game.
His ability to hold the puck in the offensive corner, away from both nets, was legendary 🙂
This was a long time ago so specifics are foggy, but I saw an email address listed in a spammy mass email or something one day that was biggeorges27 at hotmail. This was during the peak of Georges time in Edm, so I emailed the address, saying I stumbled across it and was curious if it was him, and that I was a lifelong diehard Oilers fan. Sure enough it was BGL, and he asked for my mailing address, and sent me a few signed Oilers things completely unsolicited. Great guy.
I hope they are doing everything to help the talented players develop. Lavoie Bourgault and Petrov should be some sort of NHL players having enough size and having skill, although The Bourg could bulk up a bit
Savoie are on the small side, a bigger hill to climb
Active help with what ails them, leave no prospect behind
Speaking of forward prospects, Jake Sloan is putting up a lot more points than Brady Stonehouse.
JakeSloan: 46 14 29 43 38 -10
Stonehouse: 44 13 17 30 38 -6
I don’t know why they only signed one of these guys.
It appeared to me that Sloan was the better prospect. But he had a sudden exit for whatever reason. Stonehouse was allotted more ice time. It’s a mystery.
Hopefully Lavoie is able to play tonight – the X-Rays on his hand were negative so at least there is no break.
Will be interesting to see which goalie gets the start as, with the back to backs this weekend, its an indication of who they plan on playing 2 out of the 3 games.
Think there is any way PHI is silly enough to swap Campbell and Bourg for Petersen?
Other than that I can’t see any useful/realistic moves to improve the team aside from Dowd or Tanev (unless Holland pulls off another unexpected move like Ekholm).
I think it’s more of an off-season trade but I’d love to see KH pull off something like this.
Maybe retain a little on Campbell ($1M)and then buy out Peterson (2M for 2 years)
That saves the Oilers $2M for the next two years, and $4M for the final year of Campbells deal.
Flyers get a serviceable (?) goalie for 3 years to replace Hart and provide stability.
To make it happen I think Campbell has to get back in a few NHL games this year.
I don’t know – I really don’t see Campbell being moved during the season.
I agree, 100%, no chance any other forward currently on the Condors plays NHL games for the Oilers this season but I did want to note that Savoie has nice stretch of offence recently (I believe 8 points in 10 games) and Petrov has shown some signs of life and even Grubbe is up to, I think 6 goals. That threesome has been a line for a while and have provided good minutes and a bit of offence here and there.
I miss Noah Philp!
The trick is sustain. Savoie especially, who usually gets hurt right when he gains traction.
LT states:
I am curious to know who is writing songs about this edition of the Oilers, and hope it is Japandroids, although those poor bastards are probably Canucks fans. Which explains all the songs about drinking and heartbreak, I guess.
Any other candidates?
Greedy by Tate McRae.
How about Edmonton’s own Home Front?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_0_d6Exaj4&ab_channel=HomeFront-Topic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BtIiBI8rGc&ab_channel=LaVidaEsUnMusDiscos
(Oilers jersey in this video, plus guest spot by great oi punks The Chisel)
Saw Japandroids at a small spot here in St. John’s a few years back, was a fantastic show!
Excellent suggestions here, and I am crushed with shame that I did not immediately suggest The Rural Alberta Advantage. Nils, the lead singer, is an Oilers fan. They even have a song called Edmonton, comes with a Purple City reference:
Edmonton, The Rural Alberta Advantage
Not quite current but definitely still applicable:
https://youtu.be/KNrOO6BdGYg?si=xhnkBK7g2EM14mel
Continuous Thunder. Saw em in NYC with Edm’s poet laureate opening, Great show.
It’s a general observation that does not absolutely flow to the particular, but Bourgault’s draft class is looking awfully mediocre. He’s giving me a strong MAP vibe and this could be the time to sell at the deadline to bolster the team this year and next. Only guy you can say we missed is the young RHC in Dallas who was picked right after him. Add Bourgault to Kulak and it might get you something nice at the TDL.
Wyatt Johnson was a consensus 2nd round pick as per McKenzie’s list. That’s just a great pick by the Dallas scouts, rather than a miss for Edmonton’s.
I too think they should use Bourgault as trade capital. He’s at least 1-2 years away from making the Oilers.
May be hearsay and cannot recall the source but I distinctly recall reading early in the season how Coffey was pushing hard for Johnston to be the Oilers 1st rd pick that year.
JohnsTon didn’t play much his draft year because the OHL was lockdowned.
The OIlers may have been weak in their Ontario scouting coverage, and didn’t have good books on younger players from the previous year. But that seems true for twenty teams except Dallas.
It might be the reason that Wright is no longer employed by the new boss.
Bourgault seems like a stylistic clash with Chaulk’s coaching philosophy. Chaulk lacks experience, and inexperienced coaches tend to lack flexibility to account for player variablity.
The 2 kids had similar offense on paper as far as I can see, but Bourg is on the smaller side
Dallas likes bigger guys it seems, though not exclusively. If offense and skating are similar I’d choose the bigger player as well
Dallas has done some good drafting. They’re not always about “moar biggar” as they’ve drafted both Stankhoven and Bourque recently.
Post-draft, yes. On draft day, not at all.
Johnston scored 53 12-18-30 his draft -1 and didn’t play at all in his draft year.
Bourgault scored 63 33-38-71 his draft -1 and 29 20-20-40 in his draft year.
Johnston’s offense was not in the same ballpark.
Sure it was just a smart/lucky pick by Dallas. That year was one for the old timey scouts as “seen him good” was all they had in many cases. Aside from Dallas nobody found any gold outside the top 12. The year as a whole looks pretty mediocre but happy we got Wanner. Credit where due on that one. I’m really bullish on the kid and he seems a great stylistic match for Broberg down the line.
Agree on getting some return on Bourg now if a deal is available.
Bourgault likely has nominal trade value – he’s a B+ prospect at this point, if that.
Of course a team from Texas is going to draft a
gunslingerguy named Wyatt!I have it on good authority Tyler Toffoli is not in our minor league system. We got Marincin and Hamilton instead….
Well, we had Toffoli surrounded.