The Isle of Man is a tiny island situated in the Irish sea. There are no speed limits for vehicles on the island, but the roads are not exactly freeways and wind in serpentine fashion. Only the greatest drivers on earth would drive balls out on such a track. I’ll never drive the Isle of Man at breakneck speed, nor watch while sitting alongside Lewis Hamilton. No matter. I saw Connor McDavid play hockey last night. Same thing.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- DNB: Philip Broberg is showing his promise: Will NHL opportunity come with the Oilers or elsewhere?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- DNB: Oilers trade deadline notebook: Potential chips, fits — and will Edmonton acquire a goalie?
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect defenceman Max Wanner’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Kris Knoblauch’s lineup decisions just pan out as Oilers get back to winning ways
- Lowetide: Oilers’ right wing makeover nearing completion after years of tinkering
- DNB: Jack Campbell is regaining confidence in the minors, but an Oilers return doesn’t appear imminent
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ winning streak is over but they’re finally a 5-on-5 wagon
- DNB: Oilers come up 1 game short of NHL win-streak record. What went wrong?
- Lowetide: 7 reasons the Oilers should be all-in at the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault’s season and what it means for his future
- Lowetide: What’s changed for Oilers’ Evan Bouchard in his impact season?
- DNB: Quizzing Oilers All-Star Leon Draisaitl on the top 10 NHL goalies he’s scored against
- Lowetide: Everything that went right for the Oilers in their perfect January
- DNB: Ranking the Oilers’ top 5 trade assets: Which ones could be in play?
- Lowetide: Will the Edmonton Oilers go all-in at the 2024 trade deadline?
- DNB: Jeff Jackson Q&A
- Lowetide: Why Oilers defenceman Vincent Desharnais’ next contract could be bigger than expected
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: VEG, ANA, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: DET (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: STL, DAL, ARI (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS, MIN, CAL, LAK, STL (Expected 3-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-1, 15 points in 12 games
- Actual February results: 2-2-0, 4 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 31-17-1, 63 points in 49 games
No one told me it was ’80s night, but that game had the feel of a tilt from 40 years ago. Wow. It felt like last goal wins until the Oilers unleashed a five-goal barrage in the third period to win 8-4. Helluva game.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner experienced a Grant Fuhr evening. He was brilliant against multiple two-on-ones and breakaways from the blueline in, but 40 years from now someone will look at the boxscore from last night’s game and assume he played poorly due to the four GA. I will say the Edmonton penalty kill has sprung a leak. Skinner’s save percentage this season is .909. That ranks him No. 22 in the NHL among starters. Since November 24, he’s at .930, and that ranks him No. 2 among starters.
Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci got the toughest assignment last night (Patrick Kane oh my) and sawed off the goal share (1-1) and the high dangers (also 1-1) while losing the shot share (7-5 Detroit wheels). Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm faced the less dangerous Dylan Larkin line, and did it with McDavid’s trio, winning the goal share (2-0), sawing off HD (2-2) and winning the shot share (56 pct). I like the deployment. You can’t compare the two pairings directly, McDavid floats all boats. However, Ekholm-Bouchard are helping deliver more than Nurse-Ceci would in those big minutes. That’s important.
On a night when the Nurse pairing was asked to face tough competition with a struggling Draisaitl unit, the assignment was completed correctly and on time. I know the general feeling about Cody Ceci, but he has a 54 percent goal share five-on-five (expected goal share 52 percent) and Puck IQ has him playing elites 30 percent of the time (just shy of Bouchard, so both pairings play the elites). I think Ceci is fine, and if you go searching for better, then it’s on you if the new man isn’t as good.
I think the Oilers can win Stanley with this defense.
Connor McDavid arrived at 600 assists last night, the only men to do it in fewer games were Gretzky, Lemieux and Orr. Yeah. He’s impossible. Of all the players I’ve seen in my lifetime, no player has been more of a threat with the combination of speed, hands, exceptional creativity and dogged determination. He was frustrated on the road trip, and took it out on Ken Holland’s old team. I think he must have seen the Golden Knights lost on Monday and decided to get even for the loss in Vegas. A blistering performance, memorable and yet there are so many such evenings we never have time to hold them in the mind’s eye long enough to do them justice. Perhaps when we’re all older, talking to our grandchildren. I am at a loss to describe his brilliance.
Corey Perry is an interesting addition. When I watched him last night, I was reminded of the way Montreal used to handle veterans like John Ferguson, Henri Richard and Yvan Cournoyer in the final portion of their careers. These men would see depth minutes and then climb a line when they were at their best. Perry’s speed is a worry, you don’t want him on the ice on a jailbreak, but inside the offensive zone he’s smart, still has some skill and is unerring in his ability to piss people off. The Oilers have a pile of unique players, Perry is one of them.
Perhaps the most important goal scored last night was by Dylan Holloway. He has a 1.96 pts-60 run at five-on-five in eight games since his recall, and he played 4:18 with Leon against the Red Wings when the lines shuffled (Foegele landed on the Derek Ryan-Connor Brown express for a time). Man it would be a very good thing if he could bring 20 goals a year to this team.
CONDORS WIN
Olivier Rodrigue was my first star of the game for Bakersfield he stopped 32 of 33. Rodrigue had a bit of a downbeat run where he was less than he’s been in three of four starts. The last two starts were excellent. I know the Oilers won’t do it, but I would like to see him in an NHL game this season. He looks so good in the AHL, where his .924 save percentage ranks No. 4 overall among starting goalies.
Tyler Tullio scored an outstanding goal, he does that from time to time but doesn’t shoot enough to be considered a future top-six winger in the NHL. He might make it as a third line winger, though. Like a Pisani, without the power-play time. He does score enough to be in the conversation. Carter Savoie scored the winning goal, and he flattened someone and pissed off the Eagles something terrible. As I’m still mad at the Eagles for derailing Cooper Marody’s career, I’m not that upset. Xavier Bourgault is lost in the supermarket right now, he lost the cherry spot on Lane Pederson’s line and I can’t blame Colin Chaulk.
It’s Wednesday and that means Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will join us. It all gets started at noon, Sports 1440, and we’ll chat Jays, CFL free agency and the trade deadline. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
In a perfect world you get Tank, Tanev and Dowd but how you pull that off is the question. Since that is over $10 million in cap. Potential assets to send out are Borg, Lavoie, Janmark, Brown, Campbell (who is having another very good night it seems) and draft picks. Next year we have 2 young RW who need to graduate : Borg and Lavoie. They will not both be in the NHL so you trade one at this deadline. Borg carries more value so he’s my pick.
Could you trade Campbell and Vinny for Ristolainen? The Finn would be modestly useful on the 3rd pair this year (as opposed to Campbell who can’t help at all until the playoffs). I’m not able to tell you if he could play as a 2nd pair RHD with Nurse next year which would allow you to trade Ceci this summer.
Risto has fairly large negative value but it would take more than Vinny to close the gap from the massive negative value of the Campbell contract, I would think.
Risto is also hurt now, for at least a month, I think.
Probably right but Philly has a massive issue in net right now and Campbell is playing well. Campbell for Petersen probably makes more sense (same dollars but Campbell is better while Petersen only has 1 year left on his contract). One can make the case that it’s a saw-off and Philly could do OK if Campbell keeps up the good play.
I don’t think it’s reasonable that anyone takes Campbell this year without a massive asset going back from oilers and the other team still sending a bad, maybe not worse contract back
Philly is the only option I can see with Petersen (or Risto) for Campbell. If both team retain $2 million then it’s net zero next season with EDM on the hook for $2 million a year for the last 2 years of Campbell’s contract. A buyout is cheaper but more years involved.
If there is a way, I think geuntzal is the guy. Whether he lines up on the top line with mcdavid and Hyman or on the 2nd line with Kane and drai.
I’ve been thinking the play will end up being Henrique, Dowd and a cheap depth D, like Megna.
I cannot wrap my head around how Campbell realistically gets moved or how a top defender can be added.
Parayko is my ultimate target, but last season would have been the time to acquire him. I just don’t see any way the Oilers could get him, unless he is the only TDL acquisition this year and I think Holland will acquire 3 players.
Lavoie, Erne and Griffith with a good offensive zone battle shift, a Wanner point shot causes chaos and Erne eventually jams it in for a 1-0 lead in the 2nd.
Less than two minutes later a Hunt one-time bomb from the point goes off the backboard but right in front for a crease jam goal – like the old Detroit style miss the net on purpose rebound goal.
I wonder if they clean house at the UofA after this year’s Golden Bears’ season.
5th in their conference and only 18-10 this year. YUCK.
I don’t care how much the other teams have improved. That’s not up to the standard.
Summarizing!
Day stopped 25 of 28 SOG thru regulation and OT, then foiled all three opposition shooters to preserve a 4-3 victory. He was named 2nd star for his efforts.
Stonehouse not only failed to register a point, he didn’t even record a SOG.
Prospecting takes a break until Friday.
I don’t keep up as much because our prospects are pretty few and far between but every time I see a Day update it looks pretty bad.
Looks like there could be an upcoming hot dog shortage in Vancouver as Kessel is trying out there.
The most likely scenario is, if Kessel is near game shape, is the Canucks sign him to a league minimum two way deal and have him play in the AHL until the playoffs where he becomes a black ace.
Zero risk.
The risk would be another team claims him on waivers.
There’s a Costco literally across the street from Rogers arena. Kessel is going for hot dogs after every practice and before every game.
Ok, I chuckled
Nuge is back, baby
McJ spins for mighty Kane
Stu is Fuhr + Moog
All Active Players Career with 1.0+ PPG (min 500 pts)
Not a shabby group and they are all the peloton to 97.
Connor McDavid 1.51
Sidney Crosby 1.25
Nikita Kucherov 1.18
Leon Draisaitl 1.17
Evgeni Malkin 1.14
Auston Matthews 1.14
Artemi Panarin 1.13
Nathan MacKinnon 1.11
Mitchell Marner 1.10
Alexander Ovechkin 1.09
David Pastrnak 1.08
Mikko Rantanen 1.07
Steven Stamkos 1.05
Patrick Kane 1.05
First-ballot Hall of Fame list
I remember when I balked at Draisaitl’s 8 x 8.5 million contract when he first signed it, saying Draisaitl was getting paid like he was Malkin but he’s no Malkin. What a stupid ass idiot I was (and arguably still am).
“Stupid ass idiot”
Welcome to the large illustrious club
I’ll admit, I figured he was getting overpaid too. Thought the Tarasenko contract was his best comparable.
Happy to be wrong.
The scary part is that he’s still yanking that number upwards.
If you go back to Wednesday morning McDavid was the largest drag on team scoring YoY, was firmly out of the Art Ross race and nowhere even mentioned in the Hart.
One game later he’s shaved a goal off the team gap to last year and is 13 back with five in hand.
And the Oilers are a second half team. Its all about Peaking.
Connor channels AC/DC and serenades Wings…
“Don’t you struggle
Don’t you fight
Don’t you worry
Cuz it’s your turn tonight”
Incredible. Is there any other player who can, seemingly, just decide to win the game by themselves?
Skinner just doing Skinnery things. Sandwiched comfortably between Moog and Fuhr as the quickest Oiler tender to 60 wins. Heady company, right there. His ceiling keeps rising, imo.
That 2nd period had me browning my shorts and reminded me far too much of the first 12 games of the season. Bad Oilers. Bad!
Onwards to St. Loo and hopefully a better effort.
That McDavid pass. He is a video game cheat code come to life. What a pleasure to watch.
Reminds me of when he burned Duncan Keith, and dished to Patty Maroon for a tap in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VM1RglgsT-Y
Tulio moving up to play with Caggiula and Pederson tonight while Bourgault bumped to play with Kambeitz and McKegg…..
Campbell starts.
Not watching the game – but by the look of the chart – Campbell appears to standing on his head blocking shots from the kill floor.
https://theahl.com/stats/game-center/1025898
David Perron.
35 year old, right shot winger, pending UFA (M-NTC) with a $4.75MM AAV.
Heaviest deployment I’ve seen so far, 40.5% against elites and 42.5% against middle opposition. Underwater in CF%-rels (-4.50% overall), and it gets worse on DFF%-rels (-9.60 overall, -12.4 vs elites). Makes hay against the middle opposition in GF-GA (12-10), but give it back otherwise 5-11 against elites, and 5-8 against grits). High PDO except against elites, on the back of an a-typical SH% (6.70%).
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8474102
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/david-perron
Last week we saw the Oilers vulnerability against Vegas, and a Vegas proxy (LA).
(Big, and clog the D zone in front of the goaltender, and exposing the right side of the D).
Last night we saw the OIlers vulnerability against a Colorado proxy in Detroit. Speed and skill exposing the right side of the OIlers defense, and the complacency of the Oilers forwards on the backtrack.
One is taking a risk that Ceci is good enough against elite team in the role he is in to win a Cup. Ceci in that spot requires a predominance of good luck over bad luck.
Agree with concept here Godot but not boiling it all down to Ceci.
We seen Oilers weaknesses exposed with LA and Vegas.
With Detroit and so many others, that’s the game that plays to the Oilers strengths. So many games we see it close yet Oilers are smiling and laughing in the bench. They are not worried. They are good and they get cocky in these run and gun games. They know they have the horsepower to unleash. They can win those games as built today, if anything they add more horsepower.
In my opinion it is LA/Vegas game plan, tactics, roster that needs consideration and all upgrades must be this in mind.
Would an upgrade on Ceci help against those teams of this their of game? Because regardless of the opponent, they will be well informed on how to get past the Oilers.
In every sport a worthy opponent exposes weaknesses, as they should so they can win
The way against that is get stronger links where you can, stronger chain. ‘If’ it’s possible, upgrading the D would be good, amongst upgrading with a C and a scoring winger
Ceci is ok but multiple deeper looks at what he does well says not a strong top 4. Nurse is being dragged down and Des isn’t up to it
What if the Oilers packaged Kulak and the 1st for Tanev and ran pairs of
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Tanev
Broberg-Ceci
Desharnais?
Kenny H won’t play Bro unless he has to. Loves him some hair on ass guys. To a fault
Really?
He didn’t scout/draft/pay guys like Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk (among other lesser lights)?
This year
I like the idea of adding Tanev while keeping Ceci too.
And even if they didn’t want to use Broberg at 3LD, guys like Brendan Smith, Marc Staal and Nick Seeler are out there who’d be below league min with 50% retained.
Adding Tanev (50%) for Kulak +
and Staal (50%) for a pick/prospect
would actually open up more than $800k in cap space compared to Kulak + Broberg being on the roster.
With the bit of Cap they’re accruing there might even be room for Tarasenko or whoever with 50% retained (without anyone else notable going out).
Not sure they have the trade capital for all that, but there are ways to add as long as they’re willing to move something else out.
So your real takeaway is that the Oilers are not primed for success in the playoffs…hmmm.
It’s shaping up like last year
Deadline looms
Ceci has been on the ice for 4GF and 2GA at 5v5 in the last 4 games.
Well the Oilers have beat the Kings twice in a row in the playoffs and I contend they would have beaten Vegas last year with above average goaltending.
The Oilers aren’t perfect, but I don’t see a big upgrade on Ceci really being available at the deadline.
I think the Oilers team as constructed today is capable of beating anyone.
FIFY
Kulak and a 1st would be an overpay for Tanev unless one thinks Kulak has negative value. The accounts are the ballpark for Tanev is a 2nd.
Maybe the Oilers have to pay extra for him.
Maybe overpaying for the “right guy” is something this team can and should do.
Adding Tanev to Ceci would help (replacing Ceci with Tanev is too much of a risk given it seems unlikely Tanev will make it through a long playoff run anywhere near 100% health).
I didn’t suggest a 1st did I? I wouldn’t pay a 1st for him, even without Kulak involved.
And yeah, Tanev has had far too many injury problems to just swap him with Ceci IMO (and also not a clear/large enough upgrade).
Adding Tanev while keeping Ceci is the play and Borg is the piece I’d like to move in the deal. I’d consider moving Vinny in that deal if not Borg. Dowd for Janmark plus pick helps the 4th line and is PK neutral. For RW I wait until the last minute and try pick up a bargain.
Let me share a couple stories about the Isle of Man, going from memory.
In Dumbarton Scotland the famous formula one driver Jackie Stewart’s father owned a garage called Dumbuck Garage in Milton. if I remember correctly. The local teens hung out there working on bikes that Jackie and his brother would race. My own father used to pit crew for Jackie. They were racing the Norton Manx, I think they called it the Manx Minx, no idea why. It was a big 500cc single thumper but thirsty on fuel. In order to allow the Manx enough fuel to complete the full laps and stretch out a pit stop, dad had to hollow out some space in the frame to get an extra gallon or two fuel hidden in there. There were a lot of unauthorized tricks at the time in racing of course. He would laugh “That Jackie had some balls to race that bike on that course which a weakened frame and explosive fuel inside.”
The other thing about the Isle of Man is they still have the “Cat o nine Tails” as a legal form of punishment.
There were years when the UK Footballers were out of control after football games, turning into angry mobs and people were getting hurt. But never on the Isle of Man. That whip was used, old school whipping, and in the 60s and 70s all visitors feared it to the extent they behaved themselves. The rest of the world abolished the cat and birch whipping years ago but not the Isle of Man. They still have the right to use it or the birch sticks to this day. It’s a good threat, I have not heard of it in use.
Anyway, different times. Jackie Stewart went on to become an advocate for safety in formula one racing. The Isle of Man TT race continued as one of the most dangerous races in the world. Hope you enjoyed the share.
Fantastic post.
Any chance your dad also knew Jim Clark? Having listened to Sir Stewart recount his history and admiration, Clark became an immediate hero of mine.
He never mentioned Clark personally and I think the Dumbuck gang were a few years younger.
Another tidbit. During the war, often the kids were sent to the country to be safe from the bombs. Unfortunately my dad contracted Polio from a poor water source. It was a poorly understood disease at that time and his left leg withered away. Almost two years healing with war vets he returned to school. He possessed a genius IQ but could not get around. Jackie Stewart could not read. It was a good match. Before they built motorcycles they built bicycles and wagons so dad could get around. Never once heard him complain though.
To tie this into our hockey team, you can’t appreciate good until you experience bad, right?
Great story!
That is awesome. Thanks for sharing.
Jake Guentzel.
29 years old, left shot who plays either wing, pending UFA with M-NTC, $6MM AAV.
Plays heavy minutes (with elite QoT), 40.8% and 37.1% against elites and middle competition respectively. Healthy to commendable -rels in CF% and DFF%. Much lower event GF% against elites (12-6) compared to middle competition (22-12), 55% overall.
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8477404
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/jake-guentzel
Finding a RW for line 2:
Rentals (from best to worst, highest to lowest cost)
Jake Guentzel – the most talented, but predominantly a LW. can he play the right side?
Vlad Tarasenko – second prize in the context. i don’t think he costs a 1st … maybe Bourgault +
Anthony Mantha – has size and scoring but is not a surefire upgrade
Jordan Eberle – in 14 playoff games last year went 6-5-11
Jack Roslovic – I hear he’s a defensive liability. reminds me of Sam Gagner 10 years ago
Tyler Johnson – could contribute in a depth role
Guys with term:
Konecny – extreme talent and a perfect fit. would cost the moon
Nick Schmaltz – big cap hit but RC / RW could be a nice fit. cost would be high
Pavel Buchnevic – predominantly LW but is a bona fide talent
Reilly Smith – streaky veteran with lots of playoff experience
Mats Zuccarello – is 36 but still playing great hockey. $4.125M cap hit is digestible. UFA 2026 at age 38
Cam Atkinson – No longer at his peak but still performing
Mikael Granlund – Shoots left, plays RW apparently. Is certainly available
Guys with term:
Alex Tuch – perfect fit in terms of style and skill, big body that can skate and never gives up on a play. Kind of like a young RW version of Ekholm. Affordable AAV ($4.75MM) with two full seasons remaining, acquisition cost would be astronomical.
Love Tuch’s game. He’d be a perfect fit, but I can’t what the Oilers could possibly offer that would entice Buffalo to trade him.
There have been rumours of him being available. But I agree. The price would be staggering.
Stamkos, if Tampa slides out of a playoff spot.
Stamkos is a champion. He’d be an amazing target. But Tampa has invested so much in that core, I can’t see them trading a part of it and foregoing a shot at another Stanley this year.
Stamkos can go back to Tampa in the summer when he is a UFA.
As OP mentioned, they may just use Sergachev’s LTIR and add D rentals at the deadline.
But if they slide, he would be at the top of my list.
And he scores lots in Edmonton IIRC
Rentals:
— Jason Zucker. Fleet of foot, plays either wing.
Casey Mittelstadt.
Pending RFA, 25 year old left shot LW/C rumoured to be available. $2.5MM AAV. Improving on draws, at 47.3% this year.
Deployed vs elites 32.0% and middle competition 40.1% of the time. CF%-rels are about even, and DFF%-rels good to healthily in the black. GF% is outstanding, at 58.6% overall (60% vs elites). Running a high PDO on the strength of 13.3 SH% overall, overcoming terrible ONSV% (88.8%).
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8479999
https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/casey-mittelstadt
‘Also worth noting’…
In 2 games against the Kings this year, Mittelstadt has 2pts and is +4, while the much vaunted Kings center Depth of Kopitar, PLD and Danault is a combined 3 pts and -8.
Food for thought…
Doesn’t sound like a great stylistic fit for the Oilers needs, but the guy has a very reasonable AAV and has really been putting up points.
OP mentioned Foegele being tied for 35th in the league in 5v5 scoring (42 points) over the last 82 team games. Well Middlestadt is tied for 9th in the league with Kucherov over that same span (54 points). Matthews has 55 and Draisaitl has 56 as a couple more comparison points. Huh.
As someone who values sleep and gets up too early for civilized folk, the second period giving me the angry blood
Went nighty night, and Connor does that. Inconsiderate Captain
Our fearless leader is now apparently tied for best +/- for high scoring forwards
He is making a statement to the world, and to his team. I hope his team has ears and eyes open. Connor wants it baaaad
No more foolin’ around the rest of you Oilers. Work boots on and brain in drive
Jordan Eberle.
Pending UFA with an AAV of $5.5MM and a M-NTC.
The SEAmen aren’t sheltering Ebs, with 34.4 vs elites and 38.3 against middle competition. Breaking even (elites) or better with CF%-rels, and breaking even (elites) to positive (middle) and excellent (grits) in DFF%-rels. GF% is tidy overall (one blip, 9-10 vs middle).
Source: https://puckiq.com/players/8474586
Source: https://www.capfriendly.com/scouting-reports/players/jordan-eberle
The Oilers would likely need a double retention via a 3rd team to be able to acquire Eberle and keep Foegele.
Connor McDavid?
Is both question and answer,
Connor McDavid!
Over the last 82 teams games, Warren Foegele is tied for 35th among forwards for points at 5 on 5 – tied with Malkin, Seguin, Ehlers, JT Miller, Nuge and Kyruo – and games played is not a real factor – lowest is Ehlers at 76 games – rest 80-82.
Regardless, if the OIlers intend to get a real upgrade for #2 RW with Draisaitl, Foegele is where the cap space has to come from, but his play makes the threshold for an upgrade very high. It will have to be a very good player.
They could of course also move Kulak (or Ceci) to make space for an upgrade at 2RW, while keeping Foegele to strengthen the bottom 6.
As a for instance:
Kulak + 1st
for
Tofolli (50%), Nosek and Brendan Smith
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Tofolli
Foegele-McLeod-Perry
Janmark-Nosek-Ryan (take your pick for the end of the roster)
Gagner-Holloway-Brown
/
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Broberg-Desharnais
Smith
I remember Buffalo in 2006.
Did that Buffalo team start with a d-group that had a 1RD in Broberg playing 3LD – that is crazy depth isn’t it?
That was a tragedy. They called a guy (Paetsch?) from the AHL team who was laying on a beach when the phone rang!
My Haiku for Lowetide:
Alone kind words hear
Fall leaf that brings renewal
Of life to have love.
I was working on this one for a few days. Hope everyone can appreciate, in their own personal circumstances.
LT, I’ve noticed the:
hasn’t changed to February yet. I assume it’s a copy-paste thing, but wanted to point it out in case it’s escaped your attention.
ty
Ah yes, the Isle of Man TT race. Arguably the most intense and dangerous race on Earth.
Fascinating storylines and characters abound. There’s the tenacious Guy Martin, whose quest for victory (14 seasons, 17 podiums, zero victories) perpetually falls just short. Oftentimes, at the hands of the dominant Michael Dunlop (15 seasons, 40 podiums, 25 victories).
For anyone who hasn’t seen the spectacle, buckle up and have a look.
https://youtu.be/OmNXCJt7K3Q
Oh my. I thought the 101 north around Scottsdale moved pretty good. Thanks – that is amazing. Are you a motorcycle guy ?
Yes but not so much as I used to be. We’ll get bikes again when the boys are a bit older.
Arizona is amazing territory for riding, especially up around Red Rock Canyon near Sedona. Or down south, near Saguaro National Park for a totally different flavour.
I mentioned last night that one of the most under-rated skills on the Condors was on display last night – Tulio’s shot. The goal last night was a great release snap shot short side shelf but he also has a BOMB of a one-timer. Of course, having a great shot, and finding ways to use it are different skills and, if the second doesn’t come with the first……
Jani Rita, meter maid.
Damn you, LT. Now I’ve got that song stuck in me head. 😀
The PK is a concern, something like 5 goals on 9 PKs since the break.
“Xavier Bourgault is lost in the supermarket right now, he lost the cherry spot on Lane Pederson’s line and I can’t blame Colin Chaulk.”
Didn’t Bourgault get a shorthanded goal and drew an assist on the empty netter? Seems like a good days work at the old supermarket, no?
The Oilers need a better AHL coach.
Bourgault had a great 4 games before the AHL break and a poor three games since.
Not convinced Perry belongs on the second line. Plenty of time to experiment finding29 his proper wingers. Perhaps Holloway and Foegele?
Or Tarasenko.
Perry was never supposed to be a fix in the top 6, end this experiment.
Perry does not belong on the 2nd line.
I like some elements of Perry on that 2nd line but imo the 3rd line looked so much better with Perry over Foegele, not to pick on Foegele but I’m moving him in a deal for a 2nd line winger and bumping Perry back to line 3.
Foegele hasn’t registered a point in 6 games now, you would of hoped some of that top 6 play carried with him. But all evidence points towards the Oilers need to find a winger with difference making puck skill.
Foegele’s sell high is long gone.
Foegle was clicking with Drai an Mcleod. When that line got disbanded Foegle stopped clicking.
My Haiku:
Barn meets the burner
By sun heavy lifting by
One near fateful clouds.
Rubber hits the road
Goal posts wail in the cold wind
That’s a Ford Ranger
I believe this undercuts Skinner a bit.
His .909 SV% is tied for 15th of the 45 goalies who’ve made 20 appearances.
If you look at the 32 most used goalies, Skinner is tied for 12th in SV% (and maybe your 22 was a typo from 12).
In any case, yes, Skinner has been very good. And he did do a lot more last night than the box score indicates.
I didn’t watch the game, but did look up the box score just before bed. Initial thought was “Thank God the team was able to outscore Stu’s tough night,” which was the wrong conclusion. This is why I like coming here, there’s typically a better and more nuanced understanding of the game than you find in most MSM.
Definitely would like to upgrade the bottom 6 with someone with more speed that can pitch in a goal every 5th game.
Its time to say goodbye to Janmark, Ryan, Brown.
Kenny can’t find RS C’s so is forced to use Ryan as a regular. They could use wingers like some teams do but don’t seem to much as a plan
Oilers 2-2 since the All Star Break.
Only playoffs matter, but there’s no point in them struggling anymore to find W’s. Last night proved that, against a very entertaining and spirited Red Wings team.
Is it time to have a discussion about Connor Brown? I think so. He has brought 0.4 pts/60 (4 assists in 565.3 minutes). When the PK was dominating and he was a major contributor to that important function, then sure have him on the team. With the PK struggling mightily the last while, and admitting it is not all on him, what does he bring to this team. Nothing!
Kenny needs to press box this guy! Who is a replacement? I don’t have a name off the top, but man how can Kenny not find someone currently in the NHL to be better than Brown?
Time? We have this discussion nearly every single day. It’s repetitive, boring, low-hanging fruit.
Kenny has nothing to do with who sits. That’s KK’s responsibility. Recently he chose Janmark to sit over Brown.
Kenny just brought in Perry to add to RW. Exactly as you’re demanding. Did you not notice?
Brown hasn’t been the reason for the recent struggles on the PK. You admit that, then by saying he brings “nothing!” you make such an unreasonable overstatement in face of KK keeping him in the roster, it immediately nullifies your stance. I can’t take such a point seriously.
Brown might be a trade chip at the deadline. Trust the coach. Play the man.
A trade chip!?! Hahahahahaha
While I wouldn’t say that Brown brings nothing, I am seeing – at least visually – why he is a drag on pretty much everyone he plays with.
Using last night as an example, when Gagner took that penalty, for whatever reason, Brown was all the way over on Gagner’s side of the ice, in my opinion, completely out of position. There was chaos, puck couldn’t get cleared, and then boom – penalty. Wasn’t a great look for anyone on the ice, but I was wondering just why the heck he was on Gagner’s side to begin with.
I will give Brown credit, he does seem to try hard and skate hard. Can’t question that. But the poor guy is late on a lot of checks, has a hard time handling the puck for any length of time, and when he does get a shot, he’s not picking his spots.
Maybe it clicks, but I would be fine with bumping him out of the lineup for someone who is less of a drag on their linemates.
Well, if we are judging by last night, Derek Ryan, god love him, is the player that should come out.
Ryan was 0-2 goals on the PK (in 1:37) while Brown worked a clean 1:10 on the PK. Ryan lost both faceoffs leading to the goals against.
All fourth liners got caved at 5 on 5 – Ryan the most.
Brown only has two less points than Ryan this season (5 on 5).
I missed the first RW game from earlier this year so that’s the first time I’ve seen them play. My word they stick hard to that north-south gungho style eh?
I was messaging a friend last night around 5 mins into the second and had mentioned Detroit were maybe going a tad too hard and were likely going to end up gassed by the end of that period. Lo and behold the Oilers ran up the goal total in the third.
Fair play to Detroit though, they have some amount of speed and some skill in there too. The rebuild seems to be coming along, but still a few things to iron out.
Good win for the Oilers. Points on that: The team stuck with it, Skinner really did a lot of bailing out work (he’s legit), the line changes worked, Holloway was on a game (at least to my eye), Ekholm is filthy (there were a few moments where he played the man perfectly and you could see the inevitable sandwich against the boards coming).
I’m starting to think Ekholm might be my favourite traded player ever, even over Pronger.
Gretzky was traded for.
It was like jail break time in the first two with the amount of breakaways, And odd man rushes against the Oil. Skinner held the line very well. The switch went off in the 3rd and kaboom.
Win is a win, but if the D are going to pinch as much as they did and get caught in between the blue like in the 1st 2 the forwards need to help out a lot more.
PK has gone to the dark side and needs to get it going again.
McDavid was great.
you are right about Perry LT, and I think Knoblauch managed him well last night.
Apart from the magic, this game really highlighted the need for a second line winger for Drai.
And reinforced how variable the defensive coverage is for this team. They seem to switch between systems/strategy randomly and it almost cost them. The second period was hard to watch and completely self-inflicted.
Confession. I was yelling at the TV in the second!
Prospectalizing!
The OHL contingent gets the spotlight tonight.
The House of Stone seems to have hands to match so far this season, with only 14 goals thus far compared to his 37 from yesteryear.
Meanwhile, the Day-man hasn’t fared much better this season over last. He currently rocks a 3.89 GAA and 86.1 SV%, which are actually superior to his understudy.
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Both times are the same time and are also Strachan time.
Yes, the top 2 pairings have been splitting the elite TOI fairly evenly for a while but the Nurse/Ceci pairing don’t get the McDavid minutes – that pairing has the tougher job, by far, and Ceci does not get enough credit for the work he’s put in this season and, of course, Nurse is just a stud with the work he does out there – he is a legit $8MM plus d-man.
Perhaps they try and add a depth guy to add to Broberg for cover but, with the cap space being the big limiting factor and likely only one material move (if that), I don’t think that move will be on the back end and I agree that this D-group can support this team to a cup victory.
McCurdy cited and 8-4 Oilers playoff victory over the Wings from, I believe 1988.
For me, unfortunately, large portions of that game, reminded me of October 2023. In particular the 2nd period where the d-men were pinching on 50/50 pucks without forward support and jail breaks against were happening shift after shift.
The Oilers’ goalie playing well and giving up 4 is not a good thing.
At least we have re-confirmed that, when necessary, this Oilers team can still outscore their mistakes – sometimes.
You’re always going to get some defensive wobble against a talented offensive team. The goalie needs to be as good as Skinner was last night.
The thing to worry over? The penalty kill.
0-2 vs Ducks, 0-1 vs LAK, 0-2 vs DRW.
I think they were actually 1-3 last night, but it’s definitely a worry.
I’m not a systems person to know what the difference may be, but it seems to have gone from ‘relax with the feet up on the recliner’ to ‘sphincter tightening tire fire’ in fairly short order. I don’t think the puck left their zone for the first two PKs.
According to NST, all eight Oilers goals were at five-on-five, and four-on-five PK was 0-2. Detroit scored twice on the PK and twice five-on-five according to this:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=20833
While the hooking call on Ekholm in the third period may have been a bit questionable, I don’t think NST should be choosing to pretend it didn’t happen.
Not that this changes the conversation, but Detroit did in fact take 3 penalties last night.
I think you are talking past each other a bit. The 0-2 cited by LT refers to goals, the 1 for 3 by others to successful kills/opportunities.
Though the special teams were in fact 1-2 vs. ANA, with the PP producing the game winner in the third period after the PK had been burned twice.
All that aside, 5 PPGA on 7 opportunities is terrible.
Thank you for the clarification. As Bruce points out below, I thought you were referring to PK percentage. Your point still stands… the PK needs to sharpen up.
Detroit can skate and it showed how fast they jump on anything in between the blue lines and create odd man rushes.
Truth on the defensive wobble but, last night, well, that was self inflicted defensive mayhem consequenced on poor decision after poor decision combined with poor execution.
That was reminiscent of October/Early November 2023 – the defence that cost two coaches their jobs. The only difference, to me, was Skinner make more stops and didn’t let the game get away.
Game 5 of 1988 Campbell Conference Finals. EDM 8 DET 4. Oilers move on, Detroit goes home.
6 Red Wings were accused by coach Jacques Demers of breaking curfew the night before the game. Their spirits were broken after Jari Kurri’s overtime goal in Game 4 gave the Oilers a 3-1 series lead.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/sports/1988/05/13/demers-drinking-by-probert-others-caused-detroits-loss/3d745d60-c11a-4349-ac98-47159a9ac372/
https://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/198805110EDM.html
Never heard of that, thanks for the post. More here:
https://forums.hfboards.com/threads/the-1988-red-wings-oilers-conference-final.2353697/
Shades of Orval Tessier.