I wrote the above on November 6, 2015 and at that time it looked like Nail Yakupov would be part of the Oilers skill lines for years to come. He would get an assist that night, go seven games without a point and less than three weeks later his career was altered forever in what was a stunning turn. These things get forgotten, and if you ask someone today you’ll hear all manner of things about his personality and his shortcomings on the ice. In truth, that moment had an enormous impact on Yakupov, and people should remember it.
People should also remember that Jesse Puljujarvi helped his line out-score opponents when his hips allowed, and he was wildly popular in this city because he is a good human. Puljujarvi is in Edmonton tonight, I hope he plays and I’ll be cheering for him. Bad things happen to good people, we should always be kind in these moments. Welcome to Edmonton, Jesse. We left a light on for you.
THE ATHLETIC
- New Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie a tweener?
- Lowetide: What’s the ideal deployment for Edmonton Oilers’ Evander Kane?
- Lowetide and DNB: Who says no? Evaluating 20 of your Edmonton Oilers trade proposals
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers enter spring signing season under pressure
- DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Connor Brown and what’s next in his unusual season
- DNB: Oilers desperate to return to winning ways after dreadful loss to Flames
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top prospect Xavier Bourgault is stalling in the AHL
- New DNB: The Flames are shopping Chris Tanev. Do the Oilers have what it takes to get him?
- Lowetide: How can Brad Holland and Oilers pro scouts impact trade deadline?
- New DNB: Why the Oilers shouldn’t trade Warren Foegele before the NHL trade deadline
- Lowetide: Why this Oilers-Bruins 4-player trade makes sense for both teams
- New DNB: Why a scoring winger should be the Oilers’ top trade deadline priority
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ 5 biggest trade deadlines ever?
- Lowetide: Breaking down the Oilers’ 50-man list at the trade deadline
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- AT HOME TO: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 1-0-0, 2 points in one game
- Oilers in 2023-24: 36-20-2, 74 points in 58 games
As of this morning, the Oilers sit in second place Pacific Division, one point up on Vegas with three games in hand. Edmonton began this season 2-9-1, and are 34-11-1 since. Music!! Edmonton also has four games in hand on first place Vancouver Canucks, but there is a nine point gap between the two sides. If that becomes a story, it’ll be closer to April than we are today.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner had a fantastic game, including a save against Jordan Eberle that could get him 10-to-life for highway robbery. His five-on-five save percentage since November 24 (.923) is No. 9 among NHL goaltenders. A vocal group of Oilers fans are not convinced, but for me Skinner is the answer and should be for years to come. Having a quality starter in net is a real positive for an NHL team.
The third pair was on the ice for all the good damage yesterday, as Brett Kulak was credited with the second goal and Vincent Desharnais starred during the end-of-game penalty kill with some great work. Nurse and Ceci had an effective game, the GA was a fluke on the PK. Nurse spent a minute at five-on-five with Evan Bouchard. I wouldn’t touch that top pairing for love nor money, personally. I’m most interested to see what Holland’s plan for the deadline is on defense.
I thought Leon Draisaitl was the best Oilers skater in the game, picking up a goal, an assist and a mugging in broad daylight. I’m not at all comfortable with that second line, but the glimmer twins and Hyman are money at five-on-five and that must be impossible for the coaching staff to resist. McDavid picked up an assist on the opening goal with a lovely pass, then took a spill. His running numbers over the last month or so are stunning. To hell with Raveen, McDavid is the impossiblist. Zach Hyman had a couple of HDSC and this line is so damn good.
Today I’d like to spend a bit of time talking about Dylan Holloway. I like Dylan Holloway. He is scoring at 0.75 pts-60 five-on-five. Ryan McLeod is scoring at 1.51 pts-60 five-on-five. Yet I read people talking about McLeod being unable to post offense and wondering if he’s going to be part of the future. I also read, every day, that Holloway needs to be used in a feature role.
Folks, Holloway will play in Game 82 of his NHL career tonight. He has six goals and 13 points. If he moves up to a skill line, Holloway would replace any of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Zach Hyman or Warren Foegele. Even the current occupant of the final skill line, Mattias Janmark, is posting more substantial offense.
You might say “put him with McDavid, you coward!” and let’s see how well he scores with various centers:
- 4-3-7 in 282 minutes with Ryan McLeod
- 0-0-0 in 88 minutes with Leon Draisaitl
- 2-1-3 in 70 minutes with Connor McDavid
- All numbers five-on-five
So, I’m looking at these numbers and I know he isn’t going to play with McDavid. I know it’s only 88 minutes over two seasons with Leon, but Foegele’s had much success and 88 minutes is an amount of time. Then I see him with McLeod (1.49 pts-60) and that seems about right.
Look, I’m not saying he’s Kent Manderville as an offensive player, but Holloway is a middle-six winger and I don’t think we have seen enough offense to project him as the “next man up” on one of the top two lines. I think that’s fair. I also think he needs to get in his car and drive some distance to be Ryan McLeod. I cheer for all these players, hope Holloway has a giant career. I don’t think he’s proven much offensively in the NHL at this time.
Thanks for reading.
Eller will always be a prick that called the Oilers a Mickey Mouse organization that was only half-deserved. I admittedly would cut my nose off to spite my face here, even if his fancies were good, but I would not be tossing that dude a life preserver. He’s 34 and not particularly fast, we can do far better. I also thoroughly enjoy watching his team’s ass getting kicked.
That was Gretz v NJ Devils after being embarrassed for his friend Chico Resch, but Eller referred to the Oilers as playing defense like a junior team. Which was especially cutting as his brother was playing for the Oil Kings at the time, iirc.
Some interesting notes on the Pens over 30 club…
player-current age-CAP- yrs remaining under contract
Crosby 36 8.7M 1 yr remaining after this one NMC
Malkin 37 6.1M 2 yrs remaining 35+NMC
Rakell 30 5M 4 yrs remaining M-NTC
Smith 32 5M 1 year remaining Carter and Ruhwedel are UFA at season’s end and a LOT of NMC/NTC restrictions as well. M-NTC
Carter 39 3.125M UFA at season’s end
Eller 34 2.45M 1 year remaining
Acciari 32 2M 2 years remaining M-NTC
Karlsson 33 10M 3 years remaining RS NMC
Letang 36 6.1M 4 years remaining 35+NMC
Ruhwedel 33 800K UFA at season’s end
Rust 31 5.125M 4 years remaining NMC
Nieto 31 900K 1 year remaining
That’s a LOT of aged beef… half a roster. Only two of them UFA at end of this year and a LOT of NMC/NTC restrictions. This is NOT going to end well for them.
Here is a quality target not often discussed. Might be a better 3C target than Henrique.
With retention it’s perfectly reasonable, and achievable.
https://puckiq.com/players/8474189
He’s 34 with 1012 NHL games under his belt. What does he have left in the tank, I wonder. Wouldn’t want him to be an anchor next year, although with 50% retention we can bury most of his cost if need be in the AHL I suppose…
At 34 he’s the second youngest regular player on Pittsburgh listed as a possible Center according to CapFriendly… youngest is Acciari at 32. (not including Matthew Phillips)
Henrique is going to cost.
Dowd has a lot of buzz.
Vets like Eller and Granlund are a bit more under the radar. Eller is cheap, has decent fancies, can still skate, and plays on a bad team so his boxcars suffer. Plus he is kind of a prick, or at least he used to be.
CORRECTED VERSION- NO LONGER ABLE TO EDIT. GRRR
Some interesting notes on the Pens over 30 club…
player-current age-CAP- yrs remaining under contract
Crosby 36 8.7M 1 yr remaining after this one NMC
Malkin 37 6.1M 2 yrs remaining 35+NMC
Rakell 30 5M 4 yrs remaining M-NTC
Smith 32 5M 1 year remaining M-NTC
Carter 39 3.125M UFA at season’s end
Eller 34 2.45M 1 year remaining
Acciari 32 2M 2 years remaining M-NTC
Karlsson 33 10M 3 years remaining RS NMC
Letang 36 6.1M 4 years remaining 35+NMC
Ruhwedel 33 800K UFA at season’s end
Rust 31 5.125M 4 years remaining NMC
Nieto 31 900K 1 year remaining
That’s a LOT of aged beef… half a roster. Only two of them UFA at end of this year and a LOT of NMC/NTC restrictions. This is NOT going to end well for them.After next year it’s UFA for Crosby, Smith, Eller and Nieto. The year after that, it’s Malkin and Acciari.
Obviously you first need to see if Crosby wants out. If yes, then he gets to decide where he goes. That greatly reduces the cost. Hanging out with Connor for two playoffs runs could be appealing. There is another issue if Drai wants to walk after next year. Crosby is pretty much the only guy who could reasonably replace him next year. Interesting idea to aquire Crosby for magic beans this spring and trade Drai for gold in the summer (assuming Drai does not want to resign). This could be a real interesting week.
It’s all pie in the sky speculation … I’m guilty of stirring the pot tonight. The verbal has always been that Crosby wants to finish his career playing for the team that drafted him just like Mario did. That said, if he wants to move, he’ll be calling his shot with respect to destination.
It all comes down to how much he wants to win, versus how much he values comfort.
Crosby/McDavid/Hyman
Nuge/Draisaitl/Kane
Pacioretty/Mcleod/Perry
Janmark/Holloway/Gagner
Only 3 of those forwards can kill a penalty.
Crosby can PK. He doesn’t for Pittsburg right now, but he would own that role for the Oilers. I’d put Crosby with Hyman on the second line though. Sid can still drive his own line, and he likes having a right handed winger. Hyman is an even better version of Kunitz.
Nuge, Mcleod, Janmark, Crosby, Draisaitl, Holloway, McDavid, Hyman.. What?
McDavid, Hyman, Kane haven’t been killing penalties under KK. Drai’s PK minutes have been cut back to faceoffs. Idea is to save their energy and give the rest of the roster a role.
Was Holloway killing penalties in Bako?
You really want Crosby out blocking shots?
Never said Kane? Holloway better figure out how to kill penalties if he wants a NHL career.
I want good and great players, doing whatever they must.
Kane and Drai is proving to simply not work together (unless with McDavid).
Switch Max P. with Kane but, of course, what is the point considering Foegele is better and likely better with Drai, as evidenced over the last 3 seasons.
There is also absolutely zero need to remove Foegele from a lineup in order to add Max Pacioretty (which I think is a good idea btw). But Pacioretty at 50% only has an AAV of $1M. Which is part of the appeal.
Pacioretty has played with Draisaitl before?
660pts in 879games
151pts in 407 games
Max Pacioretty has 15pts in 24 games which works out to 51pts pro rated this season.
Foegele is working on a 41pt season pro rated.
Okie dokie.
Clearly intentionally avoiding the 5 on 5 production of Foegele this year and over the last few years and the ridiculous success that Leon has playing with Foegele.
Using PP points in this scenario is not discussing the value to the two players on the Oilers honesty.
Now do the cap.
Foegele has a cap hit of 670k remaining while pacioretty has a cap hit of 500k.
Thanks.
I have $8.7MM questions you’ve avoided answering. Not to mention Patches.
Sure, Brown and Foegele out… but how exactly is this even possible while retaining Holloway, or Nuge/Kane/Hyman, for example?
What happens on the d-corps?
I like the idea, just have a hard time seeing it as possible (as laid out).
Retention, contacts out, I mean it’s all pretty obvious stuff. Where there is a will there is a way.
It’s going to cost Foegele, Ceci, Picks, prospects, and maybe a IR stint for someone.
Who knows. Am I Ken Holland?
Sure, those are all obvious avenues.
But what combination gets it done?
Do you honestly think that Dubas will take a deal that sees any of Hyman/Kane/Nuge AND Holloway still on the Oilers? I don’t. How would 87 even fit in under the cap in that case?
PIT should/would still actively be trying to get better, even if they lose the best player in the deal.
In case I neglected to state prior, I would be all in for bringing in 87 to good old our town.
I just have a hard time seeing it happening with your proposal.
In all honesty, if we had an idea of what the alleged deal that would have seen Marner being shipped out of town in TOR, we’d have a much better idea of the template Dubas is working off of here.
The comment was under the Foegele/Pacioretty comment. Wasn’t avoiding anything, sorry I didn’t address it all.
Coach is clearly going to juggle lines all the time like every coach ever.
Crosby’s remaining cap this season is 2.04million, whatever would a GM do.
The Oilers don’t have room for even close to that.
Even with full double retention on Crosby the Oilers could fit it in, but barely, like with $100K to spare.
McDavid and Draisaitl played less than 18 minutes tonight. Skinner got some rest. Oilers now 3 points up on Vegas with 2 games in hand.
Whoop don’t look now LAK 1 point back of VGK with a game in hand.
OIL 3 pts back of COL with 3 games in hand. Just a matter of when not if.
OIL are 7 pts back of DAL with 4 games in hand.
F-you and your shitty 10 Overtime loser pts, you’re officially on notice.
Dallas is stacked, they’ll be a handful.
Nice to see people ignoring reality lol
True but Jake O. has been less than elite for a year now – below .900 in last year’s playoffs and apx .903 this season I think.
He hasn’t been a world beater, but their depth is absolutely ridiculous.
Sure but who’s talking about the 1st round of the playoffs?
I’m talking about the regular season standings & celebrating how far back the Oilers have come from.
Was that not clear?
I said Dallas is stacked and they’ll be a handful, I never went against anything you said.
I mis interpreted you’re post,
My apologies DL
No worries at all, I pucking hate Dallas.
Cheers!
Ahead of the Avs by points percentage….
Nice
And we get these guys again a week from now. After the trade deadline, both teams again on second of a back to back… We get Buffalo the day before, they get Boston… What’s left of Pittsburgh at that point should be pretty chewed up for that game also.
So, the weekend consisted of a “do just enough to win”/goalie steal and a pure dominant performance against tow distant bubble teams.
2 regulation wins!
And yeah, what a very strong game for the Oilers.
I don’t think there was much danger of the team acquiring a goalie at the deadline, but Pickard definitely helped soothe the fears of a few more folks tonight.
Just thinking about the Penguins and Dubas and the Leafs.
A certain poster has been crapping on Chaulk in Bakersfield for being totally unqualified and for having never had success.
In that same vein, it’s impressive to realize that Kyle Dubas has won a total of 2 playoff rounds in his entire managerial career.
1 round in his 3 year stint as GM of the Soo Greyhounds.
1 round in his 9 years as GM or AGM with the Maple Leafs.
A grand total of 1 win in the 2nd round over his entire career (0-4 in Soo 2014, 1-4 vs. FLA in 2023).
What an intriguing way to reach cult status.
Does anyone still think much of Dubas these days?
It’s funny you mention his lack of success, I was thinking today about how he has a hard time building a balanced team to contend. TOR was top heavy on forwards, then he goes and adds Karlsson in PIT while ignoring forward depth and goaltending.
He must have some serious boardroom rizz to keep going at this rate.
Not sure if things have changed in the last 6 months, but opinions were still high back in the summer.
I first really realized the status he had back at the last draft when Hailey Salvian posted a crying emoji when Dubas made the Penguins 1st round pick.
The Reaves signing was universally lauded as something Dubas would never have done. Treliving re-signing Kampf to $2.4M was met with distain, while Dubas was widely applauded for signing Kampf to a $1.5M value deal. Most pundits were impressed (positive) by the Karlsson trade. There’s lots of other examples.
I find it all really damned interesting.
I’ve never been impressed. I was pointing out how bad his time as Toronto GM was back in the summer when people around here were still buying the BS of him being some next level GM fancy stats guru. The media’s love for him was beyond irrational … it was narrative driven.
It’s the glasses with a healthy dose of Leaf’s Nation buzz. He traded away all of the Leaf’s picks and prospects which helped to appease the masses and provided headlines for the talking heads on TV. He’s followed the same script in Pittsburg.
Now we’ll get to really see what the boy wonder is made of.
He’s a slick operator whose always one step ahead. He reminds me of Leonardo Dicaprio in Catch Me If You Can.
That’s a terrific comparison.
The ol’ Corey Perryouette comes up short.
Perry with the ballerina move.
Gagner with 5 shots in 10 mins. Lots of good work. Nice game.
Connor Brown? Whole lot of donuts. And lost pucks. This is truly something to behold at this point.
So does Dubas give us Guentzel now. There season is done.
No Dubas gives us Crosby now. People’s heads would explode.
Haha
Not that player I’d target given need to get that cap hit down so much and the assets it would costs for a clear rental.
Forget magic beans OP. It’s Sidney Crosby. He’s still one of the top 10 forwards in the league, and one of the top 10 players of all time. If he decides to pull the chute on his career in Pittsburg, you pay whatever it takes … because if you don’t, then Vegas or Colorado will.
I would think the Pens would certainly not retain on that contract and fitting $8.7MM in next year (let alone this season)….
Pickard is channeling his inner Billy Ranford.
Quite liked how McLeod dropped Acciari along the boards (at the right of the net) to get the puck and clear the zone, right before the commercial break there. If he could do that a little more often that would be huge.
I know PIT’s not having the greatest season, but I am unaccustomed to seeing Oilers roll over an actual NHL team. Not pond hockey exactly. Not lock down button up. No back and forth between periods. Just…success.
Kinda nice.
Good ol’fashioned curb stomping.
Come on Dylan, give us a goal!
Holloway has been so very good tonight. He’s driving play each shift and he’s getting legit icetime – its bumming that he can’t get on the scoresheet – to this point at least.
Shots are 10-3 Oilers in his 9:39 of ice at 5 on 5.
Here’s some interesting Wowy stats. We already know Ekholm is the goods.
Preds 2020-1 to 2022-3.
Ekholm with Carrier. 1450 minutes. 59.4 GF%. 2.5 GF/60. 1.7 GA/60
Carrier without Ekholm . 741 minutes. 52% GF. 2 GF/60. 1.86 GA/60.
Ekholm without Carrier. 1630 minutes. 54.8% GF. 2.94 GF/60. 2.43 GA/60
Just a crude look but interesting to see Ekholm’s GA/60 so much better with Carrier and Carrier doing well defensively with or without the viking.
Could it be the speedy puck retrievals and zone exits?
Good work
Hopefully No one tells Trotz what he’s got in Carrier.
I’m sold.
C’mon, Connor Brown shortie
This team should have one communal goal for the rest of this game (and it doesn’t have anything to do with Hyman).
Nope
They have enough goals, now just make sure Pickard gets a shutout.
No such thing. We. Want. 10.
Also – you never say the damn word before the game is over. Come on now…
had to say?
Right?!?
If there was any doubt before the games this weekend, Pittsburgh is definitely a seller now.
💯
You’d have to think after tonight Crosby is going have come to the realization that he’s not going to experience playoff hockey if he wants to hold on to the idea of playing his whole career for one team.
Was just a few days ago I was fighting off the mob about Draisaitl.
Sign him long long long term.
come on, there are no oilers you actually support is there??
What? I was going blue in the face defending Draisaitl.
Read.
And I actually like all the Oilers, but I will never stop pounding the table for them to obtain players with more puck skill!
To play with Draisaitl who I went on and on and on about how amazing he is.
Just because I think the 3rd and 4th lines are black holes. And that Connor Brown isn’t NHL level anymore doesn’t mean I don’t like them.
I want the Oilers to win the cup, that means getting better players. Nothing to do with liking or disliking anyone.
I like Foegele, but I despise hearing he’s good enough to roll in the top 6.
Get forwards that don’t need Draisaitl or McDavid to produce, to play with them!
Stop telling me it should be grinders and energy guys.
Get puck skill.
but, but, but, Foegele has proven to help Drai score and its not even arguable and its material.
Over the course of three seasons now, when away from McDavid, Drai is on the ice for:
2.81 G/60 when not with Foegele (1900 minutes)
4.08 G/60 when with Foegele (500 minutes)
Sure try and upgrade but Foegele straight production and his clear ability to help Drai is real and it should be acknowledged.
Everybody seems to be scoring tonight. Reminds me of Oprah. YOU get a goal… YOU get a goal… YOU get a goal…
Leon just created that goal out of nothing with sheer brilliance.
Connor scores off a rebound from Leon.
Perry kept up on on the McLeod 3 on 1 earlier but sure didn’t on that 2 on 1 – yikes.
Corey Perry, 3-0 goals in 6:16 at 5 on 5 through 2.
Not watching today but is Ceci playing with Kulak? That is a 3rd pair you win a cup with and I’ve wanted to see it for ages.
Now a 5 on 3. This night is not going well for Sid and the gang…
Put the 1st unit on, get Hyman the Hatty and lets rest.
Tough 5 game road trip coming up.
The 6 d-men are within a minute of each other (apx) for 5 on 5 time on ice through 2.
Situational officiating in full affect tonight
Game management.
Once bush league – always bush league.
Lets get Hyman the hatty and play the bottom 9.
Just got back from a kids birthday party. Up three-zip, then two quick goals. This blowout should convince Dubas to blow it up. Now it’s time to sendConnor and Leon out whenever Crosby is on the ice in the third to sell Sid on the merits of playing for Edmonton.
This is the way
May seem odd, but I tend to evaluate teams on how bad their worst game can be. Example – Contending teams should be slightly below average nhl quality at worst on any given night. The Pens worst is really bad. Dubas phone is buzzin tonight.
Letang and Karlson are shadows.
Are Crosby and Malkin really going to play 2-3 more years on a rapidly declining squad?
I want a number 87 jersey.
Cheeky shot by Connor there to end the period.
I would suggest that was yet another dominant period.
This is more like it.
Lovin’ the killer instinct!
Poor Pittsburg
I think that might be the first comment of yours in the 10+ years of this forum that I agree with.
Cool, never have asked for any body’s agreement. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, I don’t need one person to agree with me to feel I can voice myself.
I cheer for the Oilers until I die, and will keep screaming for them to obtain as much puck talent as they can while they have McDavid and Draisaitl.
I will never apologize for that.
Ceci with the seeing eye goal!
Beautiful shift by Foegele and rewarded with a primary.
Highlander with the headshot!
McLeod goes full McDavid bank.
This version of Oilers hockey reminds me of watching the 90s wings, avs, stars… this is championship calibre hockey.
Crazy that McDavid didn’t bury that….