The 1986-87 Oilers are my favourite edition of the franchise. Glen Sather was aggressive all year in an effort to flatten the NHL after losing to the Calgary Flames in the spring of 1986. I loved the Nilsson addition, it hurt my heart to see Fogolin go. Same week.
On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
Actual March results: 2-0-0, 4 points in two games
Oilers in 2023-24: 37-20-2, 76 points in 59 games
I don’t know that the Oilers or fans can take much out of last night’s game. Honestly. The Penguins had a hard time getting out of Calgary after the Saturday game and didn’t arrive in their hotel until 4am. Have you ever got back to your hotel at 4am? Nothing good ever happens at 4am. Edmonton was absolute fire and it was a fun evening. The road trip ahead should have some success, too.
Or in the emerging techno-monopolist woke neofeudal West.
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
March 4, 2024 10:22 pm
It was a very curious choice when coach KK decided to reunite McLeon somewhere around win 13 of the winning streak.
At the time Leon wasn’t scoring at 5v5 like at all and none of the wingers were able to stick. I figured a few games to get his mojo going again made sense but the coach never really split them up after.
Gotta wonder if it’s injury cover. At least that would make the most sense.
Then again… the last coach to keep them apart for an extended period was Tippett the season after McD’s knee injury. That was also the season Drai rode a very nice stretch to play with Nuge and Yamo on his way to a Hart and Lindsey.
The next season Tippet put them together after struggles kicked in. Woody tried to keep them separate but put them together during both stretch drives and both playoff runs.
Coach KK was riding and .824ish percentage when he decided to break up Nuge-McD-Hyman and stick them back together. I’m not sure them together had the same outperformance that top line did when they were apart (I’m almost positive they haven’t), and the PP is it worse now to.
An injury to one or both all of those times would make sense. Then again so would one or both saying “we play together.”
Not sure where I fall but it’s pretty darn consistent isn’t it?
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
March 4, 2024 10:02 pm
Vegas rolled again. Columbus today instead of Buffalo. Hill now sub .900 in five of his last six. Yea yea injuries but that was always part of their risk no?
There was a time back in early December where HH said it was unpossible that all of them Pacific teams ten points clear of the Oils could faceplant within a few weeks of each other.
Ha.
OriginalPouzar
March 4, 2024 12:45 pm
I’ve been clear in my position of Brown over Gagner over the last few weeks.
Premise was, even taking aside the PK (which does matter), Gagner has been a liability most nights he’s played since his initial injury and lately he hasn’t even created the chances from the depths which is where his value comes. Of course, there is the odd bad game or play but Brown has proven to be a very reliable defnesive player.
Well, last night, Sam was the player he was pre-injury, no issues defensively (that I saw) and was definitely creating some offence out there.
It may be different against a better team that will play in the Oilers zone more but, last night, Gagner was an effective depth player.
Ryan is slated to be ready for Tuesday’s game and I wouldn’t be against Brown taking the night off or even just letting Ryan take another couple of days given that fourth line played well last game.
An argument could be made that he already has taken the year off.
Last edited 9 months ago by SwedishPoster
Mayan Oil
March 4, 2024 12:29 pm
My dream scenario… other teams try to squeeze a desperate NJ too much for a goalie and we manage to sell them on Campbell’s recovered level of play. Minor asset to us in exchange, so NJ can still shop elsewhere. Perhaps Brendan Smith or Kurtis McDermid coming back? Toffoli would be nice but I’d be willing to grease the wheels on this by taking a depth D or bottom six F as the item, save the 1st for something substantial with term…
Imagine… unloading Campbell for a song to NJ, Brown gone or to the AHL, another depth D, another bottom six F and a Guenzel or similar with an extension, as Campell’s Cap load all gone…
That ship has sailed until the summer anyhow. Jersey fired there coach today the season is over.
OriginalPouzar
March 4, 2024 9:18 pm
Tulio with a great zone entry, cut to the middle, opens space, dishes to Caggiula in the high slot who rips one.
3-2 SD early in the 2nd.
Boil-in-the-Oil
March 4, 2024 12:20 pm
Just posted a YouTube link to a great song Called “Connor McDavid” and it was removed. Why?
geowal
March 4, 2024 8:29 pm
Not so obvious prediction: Injuries taking toll, Vegas free falls in March against highly motivated potential wild card teams, who increasingly see Vegas as the target as they slide. Vegas is a bubble team by playoffs, and ends up with Vancouver.
Which would be oddly beneficial to Vegas given the experience disparity. Mark Stone scores the Nucks eliminator, because Vegas.
Or they miss outright.
YYCOil
March 4, 2024 12:04 pm
Since the McDavid era, the Oiler’s have added 14 players at for the trade deadline additions.
Did NOT help in anyway
Samuelsson (2017)
Marody (2018)
Stolarz (2019)
Kuffner (2020)
Green (2020)
Bassard (2022)
Some Help
Desharnais (2017)
Gagner (2019)
Ennis (2020)
Athanasiou (2020)
Kulikov (2021)
Kulak (2022)
Another thing to consider down the stretch and in the playoffs is fatigue.
With their forward balance, all of their top line forwards play less than 19 minutes while other top line like Colorado and Edmonton are well over 20 minutes some as much as 23 minutes.
There is some solid reasoning there but, personally, i see no chance that they break up the unit to had the best PP percentage of all time last season and has struggled its way to 4th in the NHL this season (and is top via GF/60).
The Oilers have one power play unit and a bunch of guys who mop up the last few seconds after a puck clear. 4 forwards get over 3 minutes of PP TOI per game. Kane averages 1:19. No one else breaks the 1 minute barrier. No other team distributes PP minutes like that, at least not the squads that are near or better than us on PP%. Not even the Leafs.
While this is technically true, I’m not sure I agree that the Oilers deployment is particularly unusual.
Looking at the top 5 GF/60 PP units in the NHL over the last 3 years (actually 6 since 2 were tied for 5th) and their TOI distribution this season:
Oilers, as you said:
4 guys between 3:16 and 3:06
5 (Kane) at 1:19
6/7 in the 0:30s
Leafs:
4 guys 3:14 to 2:54
5/6/7 1:28 to 1:04
Lightning:
4 guys 3:57 to 3:05
5/6/7 1:26 to 1:09
Rangers:
4 guys 3:47 to 3:40
5/6/7/8 1:22 to 1:00
Avalanche:
5 guys 4:43 and 3:24 (injury largely explains 5 instead of 4)
6/7 1:56 to 1:39
Panthers:
4 guys 4:03 to 3:19
5/6 2:09 and 1:58
7 at 1:09
The Oilers bias towards PP1 looks to be a little bit more extreme, but all these teams are riding PP1 really hard.
Looking at these numbers, I’m more left wondering where in the hell the Oilers PP minutes have gone? Like the Avalanche have 3 guys over 4 PP minutes a game, and still have their #6/7 over 1:30 a night.
It is true though that the PP2 guys on most other teams are getting ~30 seconds more a game than the Oilers PP2 guys are.
Edit: wow, that’s funky. This was in reply to Georgexs’ post on PP time that is now gone.
Dallas ran Oettinger into the ground the last few seasons and their defense still sucks. No Tanev won’t really help. Like Lindholm he shone in a system designed for his style of play. Dallas forwards on their best day can’t play as good defense as the Phlegms played on their worst.
Duchene gets petulant very quick if he’s squeezed and Benn can’t play multiple North/South games in a row. Too old, too slow.
Dallas is all in this year and will be a shell
of themselves next and they are still a paper tiger.
The only team in the Central worth worrying about is the Jets but I’m not convinced of their backend at all (same as it ever was). Give the glimmer twins two games and they’ll pick them apart.
Yep the Jets are the team to beat in the Central. Monahan has fit in well. Hellybuyck can steal a series. Their D is solid and they have depth everywhere. Right mix of vets and kids. I don’t think Dallas gets past them, and of course they’ll need to get past the Avs first.
You know who doesn’t believe in the Jets? Their fans. Lines up with own limited views. I love hockey, I love watching hockey but I’ll watch literally any other team. Gonna try and nip that aversion in the next few weeks but they play a godawful, horrible for the sport brand and if their own fans aren’t coming out to watch I doubt they can sustain it themselves.
I mean the same week where you’re clear cut leading the division you need Gary to come and try to amp the fanbase up? Reminds me of what happened in Ottawa around 2017. Fanbase is losing faith in the style. Not good, not good at all.
Ok but now to the point. The Jets backend isn’t what it seems. Sorry, nope, nah, Neal Pionk ain’t 2nd pairing on a winner nope, especially not with (checks notes), Brendan Dillon (who???). That whole backend sans Morissey is on the wrong side of the HD fancies ledger and everyone is running a PDO Pony (them HD goals for are early season Nucks level…). Not shocking though cause that entire forward group is all batting too high up. Schiefele will get absolutely destroyed by the Glimmer Twins nevermind dudes like Monahan, Vilardi and Iaffollo who aren’t suited for Elite Comp.
In a single game yea they can win. In a series? Against a team like the Oil that can play quite violent when they want to? I don’t see it. In fact I bet they regress and when it happens it’ll be close to a Kings level face plant in short order.
This is a quick numbers scan. I’ll try and watch them a bit the next few weeks and will report back.
VAN: 97.8 PDO (30th) / 6-6-2 for 14 pts in 14 games
OIL: 100.6 PDO (16th) / 8-5-1 for 17 pts in 14 games
VAN currently with 85 pts in 63 games. OIL with 76 pts in 59 games. Oilers are just muddying along at 1.21 pts/gm and STILL gaining ground on VAN. If the current PDO values (and pts per game) stay the same for the rest of season, both teams finish with 104 pts!
Oilers finish 1st (and Gary awards Flames the Oilers 2024 3rd just because) and play the KINGS (and of course defeat them) in the first round!
Its annoying that they’ll be able to make moves to replace him but that will cost them assets and will likely not be as good as a healthy Stone in the lineup. Its annoying that that’s a legit use of the intent of LTIR.
Now, if they try and activate him for the beginning of the playoffs (which Stone should be ineligible for, the entire first round, if not activated during the regular season), that’s another scenario.
Oilers finish with more RW – that is why the 3rd to Calgary!
hunter1909
March 4, 2024 6:32 pm
Two weeks or so ago Lowetide was saying how he’d timed posters out for something like 30 days, then right in the middle of the playoff stretch run Harper’s Hair suddenly vanishes?
Lowetide it might work to have like a penalty box with various posters serving time, each sentence posted with the offending poster lol
Marek was confidant that Nashville is looking to move him regardless of playoff positioning – they will not be re-signing him and they are looking to make room for a prospect d-man who is breaking down the doors.
Seems odd to me but that was Marek just yesterday I think.
I’m cool with Dowd in addition to carrier (and the skilled winger).
Add, not not upgrade please.
Scungilli Slushy
March 4, 2024 11:36 am
Time for a Power Wins Update
Power Wins are wins by 2 or more goals, no EN. Clear Losses are also by 2 or more goals, no EN. More Power Wins and less Clear Losses is a measure of team quality that is more repeatable than winning a lot of one goal and OT/SO games. It removes much of the effects of bounces (luck)
This is from Phoenix Day, November 13 when they rose from the ashes under Coach Fingerspitzengefühl. No point adding in the before time it was such an anomaly
The Good Guys
Power Wins – 19
Wins – 13
OT Wins – 5
SO Wins – 2
Clear Losses – 6
Losses – 6
OT Losses – 1
SO Losses – 0
Goal Diff +51
STRK 6-3-1 W4
Dys
Power Wins – 14
Wins – 14
OT Wins – 5
SO Wins – 0
Clear Losses – 8
Losses – 10
OT Losses – 4
SO Losses – 2
Goal Diff +15
STRK 4-5-1 W1
Jets
Power Wins – 15
Wins – 17
OT Wins – 4
SO Wins – 0
Clear Losses – 7
Losses – 7
OT Losses – 3
SO Losses – 0
Goal Diff +40
STRK 8-2-0 W2
Avs
Power Wins – 16
Wins – 10
OT Wins – 0
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 8
Losses – 13
OT Losses – 6
SO Losses – 1
Goal Diff +35
STRK 5-4-1 L1
Knights
Power Wins – 10
Wins – 19
OT Wins – 3
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 15
Losses – 9
OT Losses – 4
SO Losses – 2
Goal Diff -13
STRK 3-6-1 L2
Stars
Power Wins – 11
Wins – 15
OT Wins – 7
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 7
Losses – 14
OT Losses – 7
SO Losses – 1
Goal Diff +23
STRK 4-3-3 W2
I think The Streak hides some things looking at the Good Guys numbers, as it would, but they and the Jets are the hottest WC teams in a playoff position, the Kings Preds and Flames are also hotter than the others
The Good Guys remain the best team looking at it this way. Most Power Wins and tied for number of games won in reg time with the Jets, least Clear Losses and Losses. Best GD. Given play lately, I don’t think they are actually as good as they look in these numbers
The Dys have been bucked off the PDO pony. It is very sad
The Jets are tied with us for reg games won and 2nd to us in least reg lost games. They play well and have Helly – the issue for them is they defend hard but have trouble scoring compared to the rest
The Avs have lots of talent and are unstable. Chris McFarland is no Burnaby Joe. Probably the team most like us
The Knights are imploding. It will be interesting to see if they can ward off the hot teams below them in the Wildcard race. It will be very tragic if they get bounced out. They are a well built team, but with key players that are injury prone, and some getting older. Also Hill is very good if he doesn’t have to move, I think some teams are able to attack that. Not us seemingly. They’ve played a lot of hockey over their tenure. I think last season was the perfect storm for them, wasn’t sustainable. They might be burnt out and they are banged up. Poor Knights. Going down like the Black Knight. Heh heh
The Stars have a lot of good players, but are also unstable defensively like the Avs. Maybe Tanev makes a difference. I think he would have had a bigger impact on the Oilers. Roope Hintz is one of those guys that hurts us too often. Like Kempe and Ehlers
I am very wary of what Holland is going to do. Not in who he gets, but in what he pays. It could be future altering, in a bad way, I don’t trust his horse trading skills, at all. Almost always one or two players are not going to fix a team with troubles at this point. The Knights didn’t win because they got Barbashev, even if he helped. We didn’t manage a deeper run even with adding Ek. It’s going to be a hockey pins and needles week
Hey, does anyone remember when the Canucks had 7 guys shooting over 20% and how that was going to be sustainable for the rest of the year? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Having a quick look at the old stat categories Van have crept back to league average in xGF/xGA, Corsi for and against etc.
I certainly was NOT going to post anything once they went up 4-2, not after it going to 2-2 within minutes of me posting the 2-0 score.
Darth Tu
March 4, 2024 11:36 am
I’m still going to dream of Larsson somehow finding his way back here. To have Ekholm-Larsson as a possible pair to roll out occasionally? As the Scissor Sisters said: Filthy/Gorgeous.
Obviously keep Ek-Bouch together, but running Nurse-Larsson would be more than adequate as a second pair. It won’t happen, but a boy can dream.
If I’m going to dream of a reunion tour, I’m dreaming of David Perron coming back for a Cup run. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Eberle, but Perron also has silky mitts and is a right prick to play against. I can’t imagine how much of a load a second line of Kane-Draisaitl-Perron would be to play against.
winchester
March 4, 2024 11:24 am
This team has rolled past the last few opponents so everybody is all happy little pineapples.
When the tough opponents arrive we will be back to discussing why:
-coverage in front of own net is poor
-too much perimeter play, can’t get inside the bad guys house
-bottom line cannot take any of the physicality off the top players
I don’t k ow who the best pick ups will be. I do know that if they are slow, low intensity and fade when going gets tough, Then we don’t need them.
I think McLeod’s value is a little underrated because he’s not attacking the net consistently… personally I feel McLeod is a catalyst for the Oilers playing the proper way. He keeps it simple, his decisions with the puck are based on possession. He makes hockey easier for his defensemen and forwards. The forecheck is easier, pinching is easier, and there’s less defending because of that.
When the rest of the lines are playing McLeod hockey, the Oilers goaltending and defending have elite performances.
Hold the puck, put it in areas where your teammates can retrieve and cycle, put it to areas where defenseman can safely pinch with cover. Repeat, repeat repeat and wait for openings to happen, then make your play.
The entire season turned around when McLeod brought this mentality to the 2nd line with Leon and Foggy.
Hamblin/Erne/Ryan did the same on the 4th.
McDavid is a wizard at this when he’s not trying too hard to find Draisatl.
This team is a championship team when they commit to playing with the puck.
Great points. I do like that MacLeod plays his own game. He does not try to play the Connor /Leon game and by that I mean fancy.
He plays his speed game and his role very well. Of course net front, offence….etc. If he could do everything he would be at different price point and role.
I also rate McCleod and am please that the mix of his development, deployment, and execution have kept him affordable thus far. To me he’s not core exactly but pretty close. One hundred percent part of the solution.
cowboy bill
March 4, 2024 11:07 am
So, after much consideration my three acquisitions are Pavel B, Nick Seeler & Sam Carrick. Glad to be of assistance.
To get Pavel B, it would need to be a substantial offer on the Oiler’s behalf, similar to what it took for Ekholm. Probably the first rounder, Foegele , Broberg is my choice, because Holloway will be needed to replace Foegele, who I hate to see leave, plus a third so the Blues would retain some salary. Would that be enough?
Likely not. Foegele is a pending UFA so he has little value for a non-playoff team unless they know they can flip him.
Janus
March 4, 2024 11:04 am
@PierreVLeBrun
The sense is the Penguins after that road trip have a very clear sense of what needs to be done before Friday’s deadline. And charting a course accordingly. Exploring all options with view to bolster the club for the future. Hearing there’s 6-plus legit suitors for Guentzel, VGK and VAN among them.
LMHF#1
March 4, 2024 10:19 am
Got my first aluminum stick at Normand Lacombe’s sport shop he opened in town.
A maroon Easton – the Roenick model. Fired a Christian blade in there with a big hook and the diamond sock. Still my favorite combo ever. I scored so many with that thing. Still have it so my son has a road hockey stick that doesn’t immediately evaporate. Tracking down ABS blades isn’t the easiest these days though.
My son used an old stick I had lying around for road hockey as he did not want to use his good one. He meant well, issue was that it was a stick signed by the entire 2006 SCF team! Still have it though a bit worse for wear.
Oil2Oilers
March 4, 2024 10:05 am
My preferred deadline;
Bourgault + 2024 2nd & 2025 3d for Jake Evans and Justin Barron.
Good cover – I hope Harry Styles puts that on his next studio album.
ArmchairGM
March 4, 2024 9:42 am
Playoff Simulation: 4-1 first round.
Wins in the next two games (BOS, CBJ) aren’t critical as the series has been won already.
Second round opponents will be:
BUF
PIT
WAS
COL
MTL
BUF
TOR
SVR
March 4, 2024 9:40 am
If Holland needs to trade one of Holloway or Broberg to get a deadline deal done, which would you choose. I like both players, but if forced to decide I would trade Holloway. Still believe there is a top 4 d in the making in Broberg, which will be enormous when Ekholm’s contract is up
I’d say Holloway rather easily. I think his previous injuries have affected his release and though he’s a fun player who does a lot of good things, I can’t really see him being that far above replacement level. He’s an NHL roster player, but we should be able to replace guys like him.
What is interesting about the answers to this question is that when we evaluate things in general, we tend to overestimate “potential” and underestimate actual.
Potential is unlimited, more exciting, endless possibility. Actual is what it is.
Another cat to consider in this regard is Lavoie. He has potential. But I would have front and center on my trade board. I don’t think his actual will be greater than his potential.
I like the idea of Toffoli to NJD and that’s one team that they could dump the Soup contract onto.
Nic Dawd got ran out of his net this weekend; They’re in a tough spot. and Toffoli is on an expiring deal.
I’m not sure another slow forward is the answer for this team.
Durag
March 4, 2024 9:31 am
I’m starting to think I’d prefer to add 2 top-6 wingers and leave the defence alone, rather than 1 winger and a 2RD. Adding all 3 would obviously be ideal.
The 4th line probably won’t ever score, but they’re not going to get caved in either. The other 3 lines are a wagon. I assume Foegele has to be sacrificed to make this work, otherwise he’s very preferable to either wing on the 4th line.
Glen Sather would jettison Foegle into the sun in a heartbeat.
Strictly a complimentary player easily replaced by any well run contender.
Let Oilers win the 2024 cup, then let Foegle go to some sad sack team where they make him captain. Like Boston Bruins’s nonentity Ference was for Dallas Eakins.
It means the comment has been true for a long time, not just in its current context. Vinnie has been underestimated for years.
TheTikk
March 4, 2024 9:16 am
Something to ponder: does moving Desharnais up with Nurse foretell a Ceci cap-related departure, possibly with a cheaper bottom-pair replacement coming in and 73 taking on some top-four minutes?
If that is indeed the play, does it improve the team? I love Vinnie’s game, but am not sure if he can be consistently effective against top teams in a top-four role.
With our unusual level of D health this year, I think the reason for some of the D shuffling is straightforward. We are testing alternative combinations at opportune times IN CASE OF possible injuries going forward. You wouldn’t want to try a new combo untested in the midst of a playoff round, for example, so you test other combos when game states permit to give all concerned some comfort should it become necessary to use said combos in the future. Best to test under game heat conditions rather than just at practice when you can manage it, I would think.
Kulak was an established d-man with over 300 games of NHL experience including real time up the lineup and plus playoff contributions.
As of right now, Vinny has less than 100 games, half of which were in a 7D set-up, has played 3 games other than 3rd pair (or shared 6D), only one of which he’s played well in and has had a VERY uneven playoff career. Vinny is a LONG ways from where Kulak was when he signed his current deal.
Given the Kulak contract to this player is the exact type of thing this organization cannot afford, in my opinion.
John Chambers
March 4, 2024 9:16 am
“Calvin Pickard was exactly what you want in a backup. Steady Eddie.”
The Oilers have been intensively, then passively evaluating the goaltender market since October. They no longer need to. Pickard has earned his role as playoff backup.
Pickard’s .240 and .909 are nice, but even nicer is his 8-3 record
OriginalPouzar
March 4, 2024 9:04 am
What would your dream deadline look like? I would love to see Alex Carrier from Nashville, Tyler Toffoli from New Jersey and Nic Dowd from Washington. I know not all of those things are possible, and I’m not sure Nashville or New Jersey will be selling this year.
I just suggested Eberle, Dowd and Carrier in another post prior to reading this part of the blog. Toffoli works as well. I thought Eberle looked like prime Eberle on Sat afternoon.
I do think its possible to get three players like this on the roster without moving out a material piece (Foegle, Ceci, Kulak) – buy those cap hits down, move out Gagner Brown (adds $775K of AAV to up it to over $3MM).
I’m fine with the 1st rounder being used in connection with those 3 assets being acquired and the caps sliced as required.
Elgin R
March 4, 2024 2:29 pm
Come for the stories – stay for the comments! All the best to you LT and all Lowetidians!
OriginalPouzar
March 4, 2024 8:58 am
How many holes does Edmonton have? The answer today is 3. Ken Holland needs a No. 2 right-winger, a No. 4 center and a No. 7 or better defenseman.
Can they fit Eberle, Dowd and Carrier in without moving a roster player out (except for Gagner/Brown) cap wise?
Eberle should not be expensive asset wise but they’d need double retained.
I think all the draft picks and mid-level prospects can got out in a package for those three without deleting anything material from the roster nor using Broberg or Holloway. I’m not even sure the 1st round pick would be necessary but I’d be OK with it used in that package.
Eberle and Carrier are re-sign options as well and Dowd has one more year.
Elgin R
March 4, 2024 2:23 pm
VAN’s PDO bubble has burst.
Oct 10 – Jan 31
VAN: 33-11-5 for 71 pts / PDO = 105.2 (1st)
OIL: 29-15-1 for 59 pts / PD) = 101.1 (10th)
Feb 1 – Mar 3
VAN: 6-6-2 for 14 pts / PDO = 97.8 (30th)
OIL: 8-5-1 for 17 pts / PDO = 100.6 (16th)
IF the PDO (and pts) hold, both teams finish with 104 pts. Oilers would finish first as they would have he most RW (based on extrapolated PDO/ wins).
Oilers win the SC and VAN signs a point-per-game player to a an $11.6M contract.
(NOTE: Hyman is +25 and 61 pts in 58 games)
OriginalPouzar
March 4, 2024 8:54 am
Ryan McLeod is so good – he’s an elite defensive center and, when he’s on his game, a solid contributor on offence. Yes, he goes through prolonged stretches where he loses his aggressiveness and doesn’t produce but he’s always an elite defensive player and, when he’s on his game, and goes on heaters, he is a really impactful player.
Woodguy has posted his goal-share, which is a solid positive when away from McDavid/Drai (which is awesome) and spectacular when playing in the top 6.
This guy is on a value contract even with his inconsistency in production.
The best thing about McLeod’s numbers away from McDrai is that they’re both incredible & sustainable: 12-9 alongside a clean 57.5% xGF in 411mins as the 3C.
That’s what was said, imo the word elite belongs to about 5% of the league.
49.3 face off, usually elite defensive centers are not under 50%. They’re tasked with taking all the tough draws defensively. That’s usually Drai, Nuge, Ryan on the squad.
Brantford Boy
March 4, 2024 8:50 am
Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick, and Zach Bogosian… yes please!
I don’t understand why Bogosian keeps popping up… guy could barely skate when drafted and hasn’t gotten any better over the last couple decades.
He’s a surly, hairy-assed bruiser, sure, but he’s puck optional and moves like molasses in January. I’d rather get a guy who pushes Vinny to 7D, than acquire a 7/8D (I’d play Broberg on his off wing before Bogosian).
OriginalPouzar
March 4, 2024 8:49 am
Friedman and Marek did their pre-deadline preview on their Pod this morning where they went over all 32 teams.
I am a little bit nervous about the Oilers approach as Friedman is convinced the Oilers are looking to move roster cap out in connection with their deadline plans.
I may be in the minority but, personally, I am hoping for a bit of a low-key deadline where they are able to ADD some pieces to the roster without deleting anything from the roster except a bottom end forward (i.e. Ganger/Brown).
I would prefer to pay to buy the acquired cap down on players as opposed to moving a Foegle or Ceci or Kulak out for that cap space.
Moving Campbell is not a realistic opinion in my mind and Friedman things the same.
I would like to add Carrier without getting rid of Ceci.
I would like to add a forward without getting rid of Foegele.
I know my preferred path takes Guentzel out of the options and likely Pavel B. as well (as its tough to get cap retained when there is term left) but I am fine looking at the likes of Dowd or Henrique (double retained) and/or Eberle plus Carrier and I think, on the expiring contracts, they can get the cap down and fit those players in with removing only Gagner or Brown from the roster.
I don’t think any of that should cost Broberg or the 1st round pick or Holloway.
I’m absolutely fine with using the first round pick but its tough to see an acquisition out there that makes sense – only Pavel B. and I’m simply nervous about removing a material roster player, even a middle six type player.
I want to add, which creates depth, as opposed to upgrade.
If they can find someone to take Campbell off their hands for a single first, then do it. The cap space is worth more than the 32nd pick in a weak draft.
You wanna tell your boss you blew 15 mil of his money for a late first round pick? Not gonna happen
I think Soupy signs a 1 year 1 mil a year contract so that’s his worth.
maybe if the Oil retain half you can dump him with only a first which really defeats the purpose
Dont see a way out without buyout
I’m right there with you on this assessment. Realistic, and achievable.
Both players are likely a great fit on our team. Trail run for Tarasenko (whom I’d bet we could extend at a reasonable cost if there’s a fit in the top-6), and get the extra year of Dowd to improve the bottom-6.
They’ve given him a test drive against a few of the Cali teams iirc. His biggest issue is outside speed and guys doing the Louisiana move (the Blu By You). BUT his recovery is getting better and I swear I’ve seeing his pivoting timing increase this season. With the wingspan of a 747 if he can nail his pivots he’ll be hella hard to get around clean.
Same issue over and over….which available RHD is better than Ceci? I just don’t see it unless Holland pulls another Ekholm rabbit out of this top hat (eg Pesce). Carrier isn’t that guy or he would be signed, neither is Walker.
I question if they are running Nurse – Deharnais as a test prior to the trade deadline. It might take a new d man a few games to get up to speed, and if you deal Ceci, you can run that new d man on the third pair for a few games and let Vinny play with Nurse.
I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Vinny go in the right deal for another big, RHD that can push Ceci down the lineup. The Oilers might not be able to afford him next year. I hope this doesn’t happen – Vinny has some serious value in a tough playoff series but if an upgrade comes back, it might happen.
That was a legit test to see Vinny can handle a promotion to the top 4 before they expend assets to bring in a player from outside the organization. The team loves Desharnais … he’s not going anywhere. People keep doubting him but he keeps proving himself with every step up the organizational depth chart.
I could see multiple deals. Vinny + for better dman with a Bogosian deal to replace Vinny. But a Nurse-Vinny pair is the kind of nasty shut-down pair that would let Ek-Bouch run against lesser foes in the playoffs. Kulak-Ceci is almost a 2B pair.
The question is whether Vinny can handle the role. My heart hopes for one thing but my head doesn’t think it will work.
I don’t believe that Vinny can handle the role permanently. More likely the coach was giving him time with Nurse just for some familiarity in the event of an injury.
Unless he gets his mobility up I also can’t see it. The problem being he’s good if things go in a certain way, but if they don’t he just doesn’t have the skating and puck skills to cope as I see it
The Nurse Des LT numbers are bad. I think Kulak is floating the 3rd pair with Des, because of his great skating and that he can move the puck. Looks like Kulak floated Ceci as well
I think they like Kulak & Ceci as a third pair. If Vinny can make a case with Nurse on the second pair, it’s music. Then all they would need is maybe a Nick Seeler type, who can play either side to be the #7. If they need to include Broberg or Holloway with a first for Pavel B, then so be it. Then maybe a Sam Carrick type may be sufficient as a 4c. I can’t see Seeler & Carrick being too costly. But Pavel B might take some finagling.
Nuge. Glimmers. Golden.
All of my posts have disappeared. Like Leninist Russia.
Or in the emerging techno-monopolist woke neofeudal West.
It was a very curious choice when coach KK decided to reunite McLeon somewhere around win 13 of the winning streak.
At the time Leon wasn’t scoring at 5v5 like at all and none of the wingers were able to stick. I figured a few games to get his mojo going again made sense but the coach never really split them up after.
Gotta wonder if it’s injury cover. At least that would make the most sense.
Then again… the last coach to keep them apart for an extended period was Tippett the season after McD’s knee injury. That was also the season Drai rode a very nice stretch to play with Nuge and Yamo on his way to a Hart and Lindsey.
The next season Tippet put them together after struggles kicked in. Woody tried to keep them separate but put them together during both stretch drives and both playoff runs.
Coach KK was riding and .824ish percentage when he decided to break up Nuge-McD-Hyman and stick them back together. I’m not sure them together had the same outperformance that top line did when they were apart (I’m almost positive they haven’t), and the PP is it worse now to.
An injury to one or both all of those times would make sense. Then again so would one or both saying “we play together.”
Not sure where I fall but it’s pretty darn consistent isn’t it?
Vegas rolled again. Columbus today instead of Buffalo. Hill now sub .900 in five of his last six. Yea yea injuries but that was always part of their risk no?
There was a time back in early December where HH said it was unpossible that all of them Pacific teams ten points clear of the Oils could faceplant within a few weeks of each other.
Ha.
I’ve been clear in my position of Brown over Gagner over the last few weeks.
Premise was, even taking aside the PK (which does matter), Gagner has been a liability most nights he’s played since his initial injury and lately he hasn’t even created the chances from the depths which is where his value comes. Of course, there is the odd bad game or play but Brown has proven to be a very reliable defnesive player.
Well, last night, Sam was the player he was pre-injury, no issues defensively (that I saw) and was definitely creating some offence out there.
It may be different against a better team that will play in the Oilers zone more but, last night, Gagner was an effective depth player.
Ryan is slated to be ready for Tuesday’s game and I wouldn’t be against Brown taking the night off or even just letting Ryan take another couple of days given that fourth line played well last game.
I would be in favour of Brown taking the rest of the year off.
An argument could be made that he already has taken the year off.
My dream scenario… other teams try to squeeze a desperate NJ too much for a goalie and we manage to sell them on Campbell’s recovered level of play. Minor asset to us in exchange, so NJ can still shop elsewhere. Perhaps Brendan Smith or Kurtis McDermid coming back? Toffoli would be nice but I’d be willing to grease the wheels on this by taking a depth D or bottom six F as the item, save the 1st for something substantial with term…
Imagine… unloading Campbell for a song to NJ, Brown gone or to the AHL, another depth D, another bottom six F and a Guenzel or similar with an extension, as Campell’s Cap load all gone…
Apparently NJ its still chasing Markstrom.
An earlier sticking point was Calgary retaining salary but LeBrun is reporting that has now been dropped.
Seems likely this will get done in the offseason since NJ is now 8 points out of the final wildcard in the East.
That ship has sailed until the summer anyhow. Jersey fired there coach today the season is over.
Tulio with a great zone entry, cut to the middle, opens space, dishes to Caggiula in the high slot who rips one.
3-2 SD early in the 2nd.
Just posted a YouTube link to a great song Called “Connor McDavid” and it was removed. Why?
Not so obvious prediction: Injuries taking toll, Vegas free falls in March against highly motivated potential wild card teams, who increasingly see Vegas as the target as they slide. Vegas is a bubble team by playoffs, and ends up with Vancouver.
Which would be oddly beneficial to Vegas given the experience disparity. Mark Stone scores the Nucks eliminator, because Vegas.
Or they miss outright.
Since the McDavid era, the Oiler’s have added 14 players at for the trade deadline additions.
Did NOT help in anyway
Samuelsson (2017)
Marody (2018)
Stolarz (2019)
Kuffner (2020)
Green (2020)
Bassard (2022)
Some Help
Desharnais (2017)
Gagner (2019)
Ennis (2020)
Athanasiou (2020)
Kulikov (2021)
Kulak (2022)
Good Help
Bjugstad (2023)
Just what the doctor ordered
Ekholm
Kenny needs to go out with a bang and duplicate the Ekholm trade either at 2RW or 2RD – hope he does it and not just waste picks on meh!
Desharnais, with a playoff game winner in OT ranked as “Some Help?”
Tough crowd.
https://youtu.be/UIhCtnF26zY?si=vSHzP9D3_vJ9ngU6&t=220
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/dallas-stars/line-combinations
Wyatt Johnson, Dallas 3C is currently:
19g 24a 43pts, slotted between Benn and recently Stankoven.
He plays on the 2nd PP unit and the 2nd PK unit.
Going to be a near impossible ask for the top line to carry the bottom 9 through 7 games if the two teams lock horns later in the playoffs.
Maybe a 2C, moving Nuge back to the LW should be on the board.
Friendly reminder: I despise Dallas, like all Oilers. Just aim higher is my ask.
Dallas has, effectively, two second lines and TOI supports that conclusion.
https://www.capfriendly.com/depth-charts/stars
Tyler Seguin is currently out with an in injury but is expected back before the playoffs.
They’ve filled their ranks with puck skilled forwards, their 3C has more points currently then top 6 Foegele is on pace to end the season with.
They’re going be a problem, I’d love for the Oilers to have 3 scoring lines.
Maybe the have 97,29, and 93 each center their own lines to contend. Then they definitely need to find a few wingers.
Foegele would be their 11th highest scoring forward, not including if Stankoven continues to blossom.
Please find puck skill Mr. Holland.
Another thing to consider down the stretch and in the playoffs is fatigue.
With their forward balance, all of their top line forwards play less than 19 minutes while other top line like Colorado and Edmonton are well over 20 minutes some as much as 23 minutes.
There is some solid reasoning there but, personally, i see no chance that they break up the unit to had the best PP percentage of all time last season and has struggled its way to 4th in the NHL this season (and is top via GF/60).
While this is technically true, I’m not sure I agree that the Oilers deployment is particularly unusual.
Looking at the top 5 GF/60 PP units in the NHL over the last 3 years (actually 6 since 2 were tied for 5th) and their TOI distribution this season:
Oilers, as you said:
4 guys between 3:16 and 3:06
5 (Kane) at 1:19
6/7 in the 0:30s
Leafs:
4 guys 3:14 to 2:54
5/6/7 1:28 to 1:04
Lightning:
4 guys 3:57 to 3:05
5/6/7 1:26 to 1:09
Rangers:
4 guys 3:47 to 3:40
5/6/7/8 1:22 to 1:00
Avalanche:
5 guys 4:43 and 3:24 (injury largely explains 5 instead of 4)
6/7 1:56 to 1:39
Panthers:
4 guys 4:03 to 3:19
5/6 2:09 and 1:58
7 at 1:09
The Oilers bias towards PP1 looks to be a little bit more extreme, but all these teams are riding PP1 really hard.
Looking at these numbers, I’m more left wondering where in the hell the Oilers PP minutes have gone? Like the Avalanche have 3 guys over 4 PP minutes a game, and still have their #6/7 over 1:30 a night.
It is true though that the PP2 guys on most other teams are getting ~30 seconds more a game than the Oilers PP2 guys are.
Edit: wow, that’s funky. This was in reply to Georgexs’ post on PP time that is now gone.
Dallas ran Oettinger into the ground the last few seasons and their defense still sucks. No Tanev won’t really help. Like Lindholm he shone in a system designed for his style of play. Dallas forwards on their best day can’t play as good defense as the Phlegms played on their worst.
Duchene gets petulant very quick if he’s squeezed and Benn can’t play multiple North/South games in a row. Too old, too slow.
Dallas is all in this year and will be a shell
of themselves next and they are still a paper tiger.
The only team in the Central worth worrying about is the Jets but I’m not convinced of their backend at all (same as it ever was). Give the glimmer twins two games and they’ll pick them apart.
Yep the Jets are the team to beat in the Central. Monahan has fit in well. Hellybuyck can steal a series. Their D is solid and they have depth everywhere. Right mix of vets and kids. I don’t think Dallas gets past them, and of course they’ll need to get past the Avs first.
You know who doesn’t believe in the Jets? Their fans. Lines up with own limited views. I love hockey, I love watching hockey but I’ll watch literally any other team. Gonna try and nip that aversion in the next few weeks but they play a godawful, horrible for the sport brand and if their own fans aren’t coming out to watch I doubt they can sustain it themselves.
I mean the same week where you’re clear cut leading the division you need Gary to come and try to amp the fanbase up? Reminds me of what happened in Ottawa around 2017. Fanbase is losing faith in the style. Not good, not good at all.
Ok but now to the point. The Jets backend isn’t what it seems. Sorry, nope, nah, Neal Pionk ain’t 2nd pairing on a winner nope, especially not with (checks notes), Brendan Dillon (who???). That whole backend sans Morissey is on the wrong side of the HD fancies ledger and everyone is running a PDO Pony (them HD goals for are early season Nucks level…). Not shocking though cause that entire forward group is all batting too high up. Schiefele will get absolutely destroyed by the Glimmer Twins nevermind dudes like Monahan, Vilardi and Iaffollo who aren’t suited for Elite Comp.
In a single game yea they can win. In a series? Against a team like the Oil that can play quite violent when they want to? I don’t see it. In fact I bet they regress and when it happens it’ll be close to a Kings level face plant in short order.
This is a quick numbers scan. I’ll try and watch them a bit the next few weeks and will report back.
Fun fact:
Wyatt Johnston without Jason Robertson this season is 20GF-27GA on ice (43%GF).
Ryan McLeod without Leon Draisaitl this season is 15GF-13GA on ice (54%GF).
Johnston has played more with Robertson than McLeod has with Draisaitl.
McLeod also appears to be playing higher on the TOI vs. elites food chain (6th among Oiler forwards) than Johnston is (10th among Dallas forwards).
Perhaps this is a ‘grass is always greener’ type observation?
That whiff probably cost a guy his job
The Oilers have apparently talked to Anaheim about Adam Henrique and Sam Carrick, according to Friedman.
Looks like the Canucks PDO bubble has burst.
Oct 10 – Jan 31
Feb 1 – Mar 3
VAN currently with 85 pts in 63 games. OIL with 76 pts in 59 games. Oilers are just muddying along at 1.21 pts/gm and STILL gaining ground on VAN. If the current PDO values (and pts per game) stay the same for the rest of season, both teams finish with 104 pts!
Oilers finish 1st (and Gary awards Flames the Oilers 2024 3rd just because) and play the KINGS (and of course defeat them) in the first round!
If Edmonton finishes 1st (and they have a good chance of doing just that) I think they are more likely to play Vegas or Nashville over LA.
But it would be great to beat the LAK three years in a row – and on our way to winning the SC!
It’s actually sort of weird they haven’t been using him there consistently (ie – that it’s newsworthy they’re using him there tonight).
Looks like Gleason has played RH side on the pairing the last couple of rotations through.
The way it’s going now Vegas may not make the playoffs. The 3 behind them are hotter
Its annoying that they’ll be able to make moves to replace him but that will cost them assets and will likely not be as good as a healthy Stone in the lineup. Its annoying that that’s a legit use of the intent of LTIR.
Now, if they try and activate him for the beginning of the playoffs (which Stone should be ineligible for, the entire first round, if not activated during the regular season), that’s another scenario.
Wouldn’t Vancouver finish first if tied with the Oilers with 104 points because Canucks will have already won the season series over the Oilers?
The first tie breaker is Regulation Wins.
Vancouver has 34 and the Oilers have 30.
The next is ROW which is games won in regulation and overtime but excluding shootouts.The Canucks have 38 while the Oilers have 34.
Then head to head which the Canucks have already won.
And then goal differential which Vancouver leads +47 to +35 for the Oilers.
Oilers finish with more RW – that is why the 3rd to Calgary!
Two weeks or so ago Lowetide was saying how he’d timed posters out for something like 30 days, then right in the middle of the playoff stretch run Harper’s Hair suddenly vanishes?
Lowetide it might work to have like a penalty box with various posters serving time, each sentence posted with the offending poster lol
Marek was confidant that Nashville is looking to move him regardless of playoff positioning – they will not be re-signing him and they are looking to make room for a prospect d-man who is breaking down the doors.
Seems odd to me but that was Marek just yesterday I think.
When was the last time Marek was right about anything? I like him and Friedman, but peddling in rumours is not their forte.
BAHAHHAHA
Novak re-signing at 3 X $3.5MM.
I’m cool with Dowd in addition to carrier (and the skilled winger).
Add, not not upgrade please.
Time for a Power Wins Update
Power Wins are wins by 2 or more goals, no EN. Clear Losses are also by 2 or more goals, no EN. More Power Wins and less Clear Losses is a measure of team quality that is more repeatable than winning a lot of one goal and OT/SO games. It removes much of the effects of bounces (luck)
This is from Phoenix Day, November 13 when they rose from the ashes under Coach Fingerspitzengefühl. No point adding in the before time it was such an anomaly
The Good Guys
Power Wins – 19
Wins – 13
OT Wins – 5
SO Wins – 2
Clear Losses – 6
Losses – 6
OT Losses – 1
SO Losses – 0
Goal Diff +51
STRK 6-3-1 W4
Dys
Power Wins – 14
Wins – 14
OT Wins – 5
SO Wins – 0
Clear Losses – 8
Losses – 10
OT Losses – 4
SO Losses – 2
Goal Diff +15
STRK 4-5-1 W1
Jets
Power Wins – 15
Wins – 17
OT Wins – 4
SO Wins – 0
Clear Losses – 7
Losses – 7
OT Losses – 3
SO Losses – 0
Goal Diff +40
STRK 8-2-0 W2
Avs
Power Wins – 16
Wins – 10
OT Wins – 0
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 8
Losses – 13
OT Losses – 6
SO Losses – 1
Goal Diff +35
STRK 5-4-1 L1
Knights
Power Wins – 10
Wins – 19
OT Wins – 3
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 15
Losses – 9
OT Losses – 4
SO Losses – 2
Goal Diff -13
STRK 3-6-1 L2
Stars
Power Wins – 11
Wins – 15
OT Wins – 7
SO Wins – 1
Clear Losses – 7
Losses – 14
OT Losses – 7
SO Losses – 1
Goal Diff +23
STRK 4-3-3 W2
I think The Streak hides some things looking at the Good Guys numbers, as it would, but they and the Jets are the hottest WC teams in a playoff position, the Kings Preds and Flames are also hotter than the others
The Good Guys remain the best team looking at it this way. Most Power Wins and tied for number of games won in reg time with the Jets, least Clear Losses and Losses. Best GD. Given play lately, I don’t think they are actually as good as they look in these numbers
The Dys have been bucked off the PDO pony. It is very sad
The Jets are tied with us for reg games won and 2nd to us in least reg lost games. They play well and have Helly – the issue for them is they defend hard but have trouble scoring compared to the rest
The Avs have lots of talent and are unstable. Chris McFarland is no Burnaby Joe. Probably the team most like us
The Knights are imploding. It will be interesting to see if they can ward off the hot teams below them in the Wildcard race. It will be very tragic if they get bounced out. They are a well built team, but with key players that are injury prone, and some getting older. Also Hill is very good if he doesn’t have to move, I think some teams are able to attack that. Not us seemingly. They’ve played a lot of hockey over their tenure. I think last season was the perfect storm for them, wasn’t sustainable. They might be burnt out and they are banged up. Poor Knights. Going down like the Black Knight. Heh heh
The Stars have a lot of good players, but are also unstable defensively like the Avs. Maybe Tanev makes a difference. I think he would have had a bigger impact on the Oilers. Roope Hintz is one of those guys that hurts us too often. Like Kempe and Ehlers
I am very wary of what Holland is going to do. Not in who he gets, but in what he pays. It could be future altering, in a bad way, I don’t trust his horse trading skills, at all. Almost always one or two players are not going to fix a team with troubles at this point. The Knights didn’t win because they got Barbashev, even if he helped. We didn’t manage a deeper run even with adding Ek. It’s going to be a hockey pins and needles week
I should have added PDO and SV% SH%. This is NST 5v5
Good Guys 1.011 / 9.17 / 9.33
Dys 1.024 / 9.15 / 10.82
Jets 1.026 / 9.44 / 8.25
Avs 1.016 / 9.16 / 9.99
Knights 1.001 / 9.15 / 8.58
Stars 1.003 / 9.08 / 9.50
Good Guys numbers normalizing after the weirdness
Dys SV% being more normal it seems is no longer overcoming their average possession and shot shares
Jets will crash if the goalies aren’t this hot. Cold shooters
Avs with a good deadline could be nasty
Knights numbers will keep falling. Maybe Jack can save the day until Miracle Healer returns
Stars can score, if Oettinger gets hot watch out
Hey, does anyone remember when the Canucks had 7 guys shooting over 20% and how that was going to be sustainable for the rest of the year? Pepperidge Farm remembers. Having a quick look at the old stat categories Van have crept back to league average in xGF/xGA, Corsi for and against etc.
I certainly was NOT going to post anything once they went up 4-2, not after it going to 2-2 within minutes of me posting the 2-0 score.
I’m still going to dream of Larsson somehow finding his way back here. To have Ekholm-Larsson as a possible pair to roll out occasionally? As the Scissor Sisters said: Filthy/Gorgeous.
Obviously keep Ek-Bouch together, but running Nurse-Larsson would be more than adequate as a second pair. It won’t happen, but a boy can dream.
Unless his mother has made peace with Edmonton, it’s not going to happen.
I know. Hence it being a dream. But I 100% understand where he and the family are with their decision.
If I’m going to dream of a reunion tour, I’m dreaming of David Perron coming back for a Cup run. Don’t get me wrong, I love me some Eberle, but Perron also has silky mitts and is a right prick to play against. I can’t imagine how much of a load a second line of Kane-Draisaitl-Perron would be to play against.
This team has rolled past the last few opponents so everybody is all happy little pineapples.
When the tough opponents arrive we will be back to discussing why:
-coverage in front of own net is poor
-too much perimeter play, can’t get inside the bad guys house
-bottom line cannot take any of the physicality off the top players
I don’t k ow who the best pick ups will be. I do know that if they are slow, low intensity and fade when going gets tough, Then we don’t need them.
I think McLeod’s value is a little underrated because he’s not attacking the net consistently… personally I feel McLeod is a catalyst for the Oilers playing the proper way. He keeps it simple, his decisions with the puck are based on possession. He makes hockey easier for his defensemen and forwards. The forecheck is easier, pinching is easier, and there’s less defending because of that.
When the rest of the lines are playing McLeod hockey, the Oilers goaltending and defending have elite performances.
Hold the puck, put it in areas where your teammates can retrieve and cycle, put it to areas where defenseman can safely pinch with cover. Repeat, repeat repeat and wait for openings to happen, then make your play.
The entire season turned around when McLeod brought this mentality to the 2nd line with Leon and Foggy.
Hamblin/Erne/Ryan did the same on the 4th.
McDavid is a wizard at this when he’s not trying too hard to find Draisatl.
This team is a championship team when they commit to playing with the puck.
Great points. I do like that MacLeod plays his own game. He does not try to play the Connor /Leon game and by that I mean fancy.
He plays his speed game and his role very well. Of course net front, offence….etc. If he could do everything he would be at different price point and role.
I also rate McCleod and am please that the mix of his development, deployment, and execution have kept him affordable thus far. To me he’s not core exactly but pretty close. One hundred percent part of the solution.
So, after much consideration my three acquisitions are Pavel B, Nick Seeler & Sam Carrick. Glad to be of assistance.
To get Pavel B, it would need to be a substantial offer on the Oiler’s behalf, similar to what it took for Ekholm. Probably the first rounder, Foegele , Broberg is my choice, because Holloway will be needed to replace Foegele, who I hate to see leave, plus a third so the Blues would retain some salary. Would that be enough?
Likely not. Foegele is a pending UFA so he has little value for a non-playoff team unless they know they can flip him.
@PierreVLeBrun
The sense is the Penguins after that road trip have a very clear sense of what needs to be done before Friday’s deadline. And charting a course accordingly. Exploring all options with view to bolster the club for the future. Hearing there’s 6-plus legit suitors for Guentzel, VGK and VAN among them.
Got my first aluminum stick at Normand Lacombe’s sport shop he opened in town.
A maroon Easton – the Roenick model. Fired a Christian blade in there with a big hook and the diamond sock. Still my favorite combo ever. I scored so many with that thing. Still have it so my son has a road hockey stick that doesn’t immediately evaporate. Tracking down ABS blades isn’t the easiest these days though.
My son used an old stick I had lying around for road hockey as he did not want to use his good one. He meant well, issue was that it was a stick signed by the entire 2006 SCF team! Still have it though a bit worse for wear.
My preferred deadline;
Bourgault + 2024 2nd & 2025 3d for Jake Evans and Justin Barron.
Spend 1st round pick on #2RW rental.
very cool version of a very cool tune!…enjoy!
https://youtu.be/Tqm7-zN5s8k?si=4GpQDR3QVmLJzmCO
Good cover – I hope Harry Styles puts that on his next studio album.
Playoff Simulation: 4-1 first round.
Wins in the next two games (BOS, CBJ) aren’t critical as the series has been won already.
Second round opponents will be:
BUF
PIT
WAS
COL
MTL
BUF
TOR
If Holland needs to trade one of Holloway or Broberg to get a deadline deal done, which would you choose. I like both players, but if forced to decide I would trade Holloway. Still believe there is a top 4 d in the making in Broberg, which will be enormous when Ekholm’s contract is up
I’d say Holloway rather easily. I think his previous injuries have affected his release and though he’s a fun player who does a lot of good things, I can’t really see him being that far above replacement level. He’s an NHL roster player, but we should be able to replace guys like him.
Holloway. There is too much potential there to trade Bro. I am sure the phone is ringing about him, which means you shouldn’t do it
Broberg.
Perceived ceiling vs actual ceiling.
With that said – the answer of course is that it also depends on what type of player you’re trading for.
I really like Holloway, but for the right player, he’s out the door.
I’m a fan of Holloway so somewhat biased.
What is interesting about the answers to this question is that when we evaluate things in general, we tend to overestimate “potential” and underestimate actual.
Potential is unlimited, more exciting, endless possibility. Actual is what it is.
Another cat to consider in this regard is Lavoie. He has potential. But I would have front and center on my trade board. I don’t think his actual will be greater than his potential.
Vinny’s number is going to be 3 x $3 million or 4 x $2.5 million or something like that.
I would say those are floor dollars for each term.
Joe Mullen is a fantastic comp:
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=3838
Sledgehammer!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJWJE0x7T4Q
I like the idea of Toffoli to NJD and that’s one team that they could dump the Soup contract onto.
Nic Dawd got ran out of his net this weekend; They’re in a tough spot. and Toffoli is on an expiring deal.
I’m not sure another slow forward is the answer for this team.
I’m starting to think I’d prefer to add 2 top-6 wingers and leave the defence alone, rather than 1 winger and a 2RD. Adding all 3 would obviously be ideal.
I’m envisioning something like:
Drai-McDavid-Tarasenko
Duclair-Nuge-Hyman
Kane-McLeod-Perry
Janmark-Holloway-Brown
The 4th line probably won’t ever score, but they’re not going to get caved in either. The other 3 lines are a wagon. I assume Foegele has to be sacrificed to make this work, otherwise he’s very preferable to either wing on the 4th line.
Under that scenario I would prefer:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Duclair-Drai-Tarasenko
I think the team is more dangerous when McDavid snd Drai are separated.
Glen Sather would jettison Foegle into the sun in a heartbeat.
Strictly a complimentary player easily replaced by any well run contender.
Let Oilers win the 2024 cup, then let Foegle go to some sad sack team where they make him captain. Like Boston Bruins’s nonentity Ference was for Dallas Eakins.
I don’t think Duclair is a top-6 forward anymore.
“Connor Brown …apparently doesn’t matter how many candles are lit on his behalf”
That’s Gold Jerry!! GOLD
The Avalanche in 2013 had a PDO heater, finished the season with 112 points, and were knocked out in the 1st round.
That’s the first PDO pony team that I can recall.
Mind you it was only a 1.018 PDO.
Not sure what that means?
It means the comment has been true for a long time, not just in its current context. Vinnie has been underestimated for years.
Something to ponder: does moving Desharnais up with Nurse foretell a Ceci cap-related departure, possibly with a cheaper bottom-pair replacement coming in and 73 taking on some top-four minutes?
If that is indeed the play, does it improve the team? I love Vinnie’s game, but am not sure if he can be consistently effective against top teams in a top-four role.
If that’s the play, then there’s another shoe to drop elsewhere so it’s hard to answer your question.
With our unusual level of D health this year, I think the reason for some of the D shuffling is straightforward. We are testing alternative combinations at opportune times IN CASE OF possible injuries going forward. You wouldn’t want to try a new combo untested in the midst of a playoff round, for example, so you test other combos when game states permit to give all concerned some comfort should it become necessary to use said combos in the future. Best to test under game heat conditions rather than just at practice when you can manage it, I would think.
Kulak was an established d-man with over 300 games of NHL experience including real time up the lineup and plus playoff contributions.
As of right now, Vinny has less than 100 games, half of which were in a 7D set-up, has played 3 games other than 3rd pair (or shared 6D), only one of which he’s played well in and has had a VERY uneven playoff career. Vinny is a LONG ways from where Kulak was when he signed his current deal.
Given the Kulak contract to this player is the exact type of thing this organization cannot afford, in my opinion.
“Calvin Pickard was exactly what you want in a backup. Steady Eddie.”
The Oilers have been intensively, then passively evaluating the goaltender market since October. They no longer need to. Pickard has earned his role as playoff backup.
Pickard’s .240 and .909 are nice, but even nicer is his 8-3 record
I just suggested Eberle, Dowd and Carrier in another post prior to reading this part of the blog. Toffoli works as well. I thought Eberle looked like prime Eberle on Sat afternoon.
I do think its possible to get three players like this on the roster without moving out a material piece (Foegle, Ceci, Kulak) – buy those cap hits down, move out Gagner Brown (adds $775K of AAV to up it to over $3MM).
It can be done, right?
Not for depth prospects and later picks, no.
I’m fine with the 1st rounder being used in connection with those 3 assets being acquired and the caps sliced as required.
Come for the stories – stay for the comments! All the best to you LT and all Lowetidians!
Can they fit Eberle, Dowd and Carrier in without moving a roster player out (except for Gagner/Brown) cap wise?
Eberle should not be expensive asset wise but they’d need double retained.
I think all the draft picks and mid-level prospects can got out in a package for those three without deleting anything material from the roster nor using Broberg or Holloway. I’m not even sure the 1st round pick would be necessary but I’d be OK with it used in that package.
Eberle and Carrier are re-sign options as well and Dowd has one more year.
VAN’s PDO bubble has burst.
Oct 10 – Jan 31
Feb 1 – Mar 3
IF the PDO (and pts) hold, both teams finish with 104 pts. Oilers would finish first as they would have he most RW (based on extrapolated PDO/ wins).
Oilers win the SC and VAN signs a point-per-game player to a an $11.6M contract.
(NOTE: Hyman is +25 and 61 pts in 58 games)
Ryan McLeod is so good – he’s an elite defensive center and, when he’s on his game, a solid contributor on offence. Yes, he goes through prolonged stretches where he loses his aggressiveness and doesn’t produce but he’s always an elite defensive player and, when he’s on his game, and goes on heaters, he is a really impactful player.
Woodguy has posted his goal-share, which is a solid positive when away from McDavid/Drai (which is awesome) and spectacular when playing in the top 6.
This guy is on a value contract even with his inconsistency in production.
The best thing about McLeod’s numbers away from McDrai is that they’re both incredible & sustainable: 12-9 alongside a clean 57.5% xGF in 411mins as the 3C.
If Mcleod is elite, then elite doesn’t mean elite.
McDavid and Draisaitl are elite, Mcleod inconsistently is a good 3C.
I like Mcleod but calling him elite is wildly unfair to him. If he’s elite, then 50% of the league is also elite.
Never said he was elite. Said he is elite defensively.
He’s an elite defensive center.
That’s what was said, imo the word elite belongs to about 5% of the league.
49.3 face off, usually elite defensive centers are not under 50%. They’re tasked with taking all the tough draws defensively. That’s usually Drai, Nuge, Ryan on the squad.
Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick, and Zach Bogosian… yes please!
I don’t understand why Bogosian keeps popping up… guy could barely skate when drafted and hasn’t gotten any better over the last couple decades.
He’s a surly, hairy-assed bruiser, sure, but he’s puck optional and moves like molasses in January. I’d rather get a guy who pushes Vinny to 7D, than acquire a 7/8D (I’d play Broberg on his off wing before Bogosian).
Friedman and Marek did their pre-deadline preview on their Pod this morning where they went over all 32 teams.
I am a little bit nervous about the Oilers approach as Friedman is convinced the Oilers are looking to move roster cap out in connection with their deadline plans.
I may be in the minority but, personally, I am hoping for a bit of a low-key deadline where they are able to ADD some pieces to the roster without deleting anything from the roster except a bottom end forward (i.e. Ganger/Brown).
I would prefer to pay to buy the acquired cap down on players as opposed to moving a Foegle or Ceci or Kulak out for that cap space.
Moving Campbell is not a realistic opinion in my mind and Friedman things the same.
I would like to add Carrier without getting rid of Ceci.
I would like to add a forward without getting rid of Foegele.
I know my preferred path takes Guentzel out of the options and likely Pavel B. as well (as its tough to get cap retained when there is term left) but I am fine looking at the likes of Dowd or Henrique (double retained) and/or Eberle plus Carrier and I think, on the expiring contracts, they can get the cap down and fit those players in with removing only Gagner or Brown from the roster.
I don’t think any of that should cost Broberg or the 1st round pick or Holloway.
I’m absolutely fine with using the first round pick but its tough to see an acquisition out there that makes sense – only Pavel B. and I’m simply nervous about removing a material roster player, even a middle six type player.
I want to add, which creates depth, as opposed to upgrade.
If they can find someone to take Campbell off their hands for a single first, then do it. The cap space is worth more than the 32nd pick in a weak draft.
You wanna tell your boss you blew 15 mil of his money for a late first round pick? Not gonna happen
I think Soupy signs a 1 year 1 mil a year contract so that’s his worth.
maybe if the Oil retain half you can dump him with only a first which really defeats the purpose
Dont see a way out without buyout
That’s why I started the post with “if”.
Doesn’t sound reasonably feasible though according to Friedman.
I’m right there with you on this assessment. Realistic, and achievable.
Both players are likely a great fit on our team. Trail run for Tarasenko (whom I’d bet we could extend at a reasonable cost if there’s a fit in the top-6), and get the extra year of Dowd to improve the bottom-6.
They’ve given him a test drive against a few of the Cali teams iirc. His biggest issue is outside speed and guys doing the Louisiana move (the Blu By You). BUT his recovery is getting better and I swear I’ve seeing his pivoting timing increase this season. With the wingspan of a 747 if he can nail his pivots he’ll be hella hard to get around clean.
Same issue over and over….which available RHD is better than Ceci? I just don’t see it unless Holland pulls another Ekholm rabbit out of this top hat (eg Pesce). Carrier isn’t that guy or he would be signed, neither is Walker.
John Marino, but it is very unlikely that he is available.
Tarasenko for Campbell and something else…..Jack cant do any worse than what they have.
Steady Steve is smarter than that.
I question if they are running Nurse – Deharnais as a test prior to the trade deadline. It might take a new d man a few games to get up to speed, and if you deal Ceci, you can run that new d man on the third pair for a few games and let Vinny play with Nurse.
I also wouldn’t be shocked to see Vinny go in the right deal for another big, RHD that can push Ceci down the lineup. The Oilers might not be able to afford him next year. I hope this doesn’t happen – Vinny has some serious value in a tough playoff series but if an upgrade comes back, it might happen.
I think you’re on to something, flea.
That was a legit test to see Vinny can handle a promotion to the top 4 before they expend assets to bring in a player from outside the organization. The team loves Desharnais … he’s not going anywhere. People keep doubting him but he keeps proving himself with every step up the organizational depth chart.
^ this. Vinny needs a re-up and the brass wants to find out if he’s peaked as bottom pairing PK specialist or has the chops to handle higher comp.
I could see multiple deals. Vinny + for better dman with a Bogosian deal to replace Vinny. But a Nurse-Vinny pair is the kind of nasty shut-down pair that would let Ek-Bouch run against lesser foes in the playoffs. Kulak-Ceci is almost a 2B pair.
The question is whether Vinny can handle the role. My heart hopes for one thing but my head doesn’t think it will work.
I don’t believe that Vinny can handle the role permanently. More likely the coach was giving him time with Nurse just for some familiarity in the event of an injury.
Unless he gets his mobility up I also can’t see it. The problem being he’s good if things go in a certain way, but if they don’t he just doesn’t have the skating and puck skills to cope as I see it
The Nurse Des LT numbers are bad. I think Kulak is floating the 3rd pair with Des, because of his great skating and that he can move the puck. Looks like Kulak floated Ceci as well
Nurse needs a better partner
Maybe you shouldn’t underestimate Vinny.
This is my view as well.
A contingency plan.
I see Vinny as a 6-7 on a contender, with a limited ability to move up in a pinch.
I think they like Kulak & Ceci as a third pair. If Vinny can make a case with Nurse on the second pair, it’s music. Then all they would need is maybe a Nick Seeler type, who can play either side to be the #7. If they need to include Broberg or Holloway with a first for Pavel B, then so be it. Then maybe a Sam Carrick type may be sufficient as a 4c. I can’t see Seeler & Carrick being too costly. But Pavel B might take some finagling.