2023-24 Game 64: Capitals at Oilers

The word is out, all over town, about who’s in and who’s out for the long road to Stanley. What does that mean? I think we’re getting a good idea about what Kris Knoblauch wants for opening night of the postseason and a good idea about recalls. Quite a week.

THE ATHLETIC!

• New Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers’ 2024 NHL Draft without a first-round pick
• DNB: Edmonton Oilers notebook: Adam Henrique’s family adjustment, Connor McDavid’s motivation
• Lowetide: What will Adam Henrique bring to the Oilers down the stretch?
• DNB: Why the Oilers’ old-turned-new second line should be here to stay
• Lowetide: What’s next for Edmonton Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway?
• DNB: Why the Edmonton Oilers look done adding before NHL trade deadline
• DNB: How Oilers’ trade for Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick improves forward depth
• DNB: Oilers defense secures third-period comeback and OT win vs. Bruins
• DNB: How Calvin Pickard has affirmed his spot on the Oilers
• Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie a tweener?
• Lowetide: What’s the ideal deployment for Edmonton Oilers’ Evander Kane?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers enter spring signing season under pressure
• DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
• Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
• At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
• Actual March results: 4-1-1, 9 points in six games
• Oilers in 2023-24: 39-21-3, 81 points in 63 games

This Oilers team is in a great spot, as long as the winning continues. No time for fooling around, and this time I mean it. A losing streak would be a disaster. Then again, opening against the Los Angeles Kings or facing the Vancouver Canucks in the first round are two different and most difficult tasks. I’ll take the LAK option, and would not fear the Vegas choice either. Dallas Stars are my worry. Mike Keane is showing up in my dreams and telling me to go home.

KRIS KNOBLAUCH’S DEPLOYMENT

You can see the lineup coming into view now. Knoblauch is keeping the Nuge-McDavid-Hyman trio together most of the time, and is giving full leash to McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele at this time. The next time you want to give the Oilers scouts hell, remember McLeod is a second-round pick whose role on the team grows annually. The third line, which is currently Kane-Henrique-Brown, will be fascinating to watch. If they can outscore, while taking on some of the bigger chores, this train could be bound for glory. The fourth lines has interesting pieces, but Edmonton coaches have been scrapping the fourth unit for parts for as long as I can remember (maybe Devereaux-Dowd-Laraque at the turn of the century).

On defense, Vincent Desharnais has emerged as the key player for Edmonton. If he can do well with Darnell Nurse on an easier second pair (Kulak-Ceci appear to be taking on close to equal minutes) then we should see Desharnais many times with Nurse before the season ends. For the record, here are the totals in recent games.

• Nurse-Desharnais: 75 minutes, 2-3 goals, 46 pct expected goals, 41 pct shot share
• Kulak-Ceci: 77 minutes, 3-3 goals, 47 pct expected goals, 49 pct shot share

The Kulak-Ceci tandem is getting better results. Experts tell me that 200 minutes is the point at which we can begin to draw conclusions.

RECALLS

I was talking to DNB yesterday and he mentioned that Sam Gagner is likely to be the first recall from Bakersfield. Samwise had a fine night with the Condors last night and we’ll see how long he is there. Teams get four recalls iirc after the deadline and if one belongs to Gagner, I will guess Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and Adam Erne get the rest of the plane tickets. Ben Gleason, Lane Pederson, maybe James Hamblin could see time depending on need. A goalie gets recalled only due to injury and Jack Campbell’s experience would give him the edge there.

I don’t think Raphael Lavoie gets the recall. Why? There’s interesting evidence from NHL Edge. I think it’s a major piece of intel we didn’t have before. If you read the portion of this article about speed, and see Lavoie’s numbers, hard to view him in the same way one would without that information. I’m not sure how much importance an NHL team puts on that for young forwards, but my guess is plenty.

Noon to 2pm today, the Lowdown rocks the casbah at Sports 1440. We’ll have Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal and Steve Lansky from BigMouth Sports in a no holds barred slobberknocker bout! We’ll sell you the whole seat but you’ll only need the edge!! You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.