It was an instant classic, and all that had been anticipated. The Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche played 65 minutes at a breathtaking pace, and the outcome (an Oilers loss) should not take away from a wonderful game. There are things to note now that the two clubs have given it their all in what could be a semifinal preview. I have some thoughts.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ potential playoff recalls an impressive group
- Lowetide: Why Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner is a key to the postseason
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor Brown finally scores first of the season: ‘I never was just OK with not scoring’
- Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers’ 2024 NHL Draft without a first-round pick
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers notebook: Adam Henrique’s family adjustment, Connor McDavid’s motivation
- Lowetide: What will Adam Henrique bring to the Oilers down the stretch?
- DNB: Why the Oilers’ old-turned-new second line should be here to stay
- Lowetide: What’s next for Edmonton Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway?
- DNB: Why the Edmonton Oilers look done adding before NHL trade deadline
- DNB: How Oilers’ trade for Adam Henrique, Sam Carrick improves forward depth
- DNB: Oilers defense secures third-period comeback and OT win vs. Bruins
- DNB: How Calvin Pickard has affirmed his spot on the Oilers
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie a tweener?
- Lowetide: What’s the ideal deployment for Edmonton Oilers’ Evander Kane?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers enter spring signing season under pressure
- DNB: Goals aren’t coming for Connor McDavid. He’s helping the Oilers more than ever
- Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 5-1-2, 12 points in eight games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 40-21-4, 84 points in 65 games
The Oilers are rolling past my reasonable expectations like a house on the side of the road this March. The single regulation loss was fatigue, pretty sure. Much was spent against the Bruins in Boston. Edmonton is on pace to post 106 points this season, that’s three points shy of last year and would be the seventh-best total in team history. The club had 106 points in 1983 and 1987. That 1987 team is the best team I’ve ever seen. Different era, of course, the points are counted differently. The Oilers are clear of LAK and VEG for now, and have gained four points on Van City in the last 10 games. Vancouver is eight points ahead but have played three more games.
THE NUMBERS
Stuart Skinner is the answer. His five-on-five save percentage since November 24 (.926) is No. 6 among NHL starters. His overall save percentage (.922) since November 24 has him No. 4 in the NHL. Only Connor Hellebuyck, Anthony Stolarz and Joey Daccord have been better in that time. His performances in games like last night are a good sign for the playoffs. I’m excited to see him in his second playoff, and am convinced the organization has a foundation piece in the years to come. So, in the three drafts since the McDavid in 2015, the Oilers found three foundation pieces–two of them outside the first round. Give these scouts some credit.
Vincent Desharnais was held out in the third period after his fight, we’ll see about injury in the next 24-36 hours. The big man is important to this team at five-on-five and on the PK, so I’m sure there are conversations happening in the general manager’s office today. Troy Stecher would step in, he’s a very different player-type and the shuffle probably gets him with Brett Kulak on the third pair. Kulak made a bad pinch on the first goal, but he’s a solid NHL blue and the mistake stood out partly because it was so rare. Evan Bouchard’s ability to get the shot through was key. Ceci has to get the puck out on the second GA, and the third GA saw some soft coverage by Bouchard on the initial play in the corner. Some criticism for Mattias Ekholm in the comments section, I have to say I don’t see it.
We spoke yesterday about three young players being asked to do more, and Ryan McLeod was absolutely effective last night in a tough situation. Warren Foegele scored a goal, and that line (29 with the two young W’s) is going to be a key if Edmonton is to win Stanley. I think Leon Draisaitl had a good game, the first Walker goal wasn’t lazy, but rather Draisaitl making a wrong read. It isn’t his strength, or hasn’t been to this point in his career. Leon played 9:18 versus the Nathan MacKinnon line, no goals either way, and 5-4 shots for the Oilers. I think that should be a discussion point today.
I thought Colorado did a splendid job shutting down Connor McDavid’s line, and that was a big part of last night’s story. Both 97 and 29 saw Devon Toews a lot. Helluva player.
If you’re waking up feeling bad about the game today, I would suggest you let it go. Shit happens. The goal went in with a couple of seconds left. There are lessons to learn, and if you want to fret over something, consider this: Oilers unwillingness to take care of the puck, represented by back passes, passes across the middle, passes with low percentage of completion, and not getting the puck out when that’s the only job, mean this team is going to have to outscore the other team and their own mistakes.
It’s there for them, the championship, but attention to detail and making the safe, dull play may not be in them. These Oilers won’t win Stanley unless they tighten up. Every one of them. Every player on the roster. That’s a fact.
Nurse is having a strong game tonight.
Great shift by that line. Perry was everywhere.
Lucky to lose Desharnais now, before playoffs, with a broken finger.
These hurt like crazy for about 2 weeks then they heal quick.
OK to get the loser point to keep ahead of the chasing pack of dogs.
I am sorry I am late to the party, but I watched the game on tape delay.
Excellent assist by Perry on the Carrick goal, and then he immediately grabs the puck knowing it’s his teammates for goal for the team….
I may grow to like this Perry character one day ….😉
Oh wait! Did he grab it because it was his own 900th point!!???
Hahaha
I’m pretty sure it the latter….
I feel like 800 of them came against the Oilers…
Does old what’s his name ever post anymore?
Yes but under a new even more hilarious moniker,
Such a scamp
No
😀
As a yearly reminder of how important the post-New Year split can be for prospects, Wanner has posted 12 of his 14 points and is +15 in his 32 games since Jan 1st.
No score thru 2 New Jersey/ Vegas
For a supposedly stacked, unstoppable, shit brickhouse of a team VGK sure don’t win many games.
You just HAD to jinx it…
No more flapping my wings then.
Vegas is only all world when they play the Oilers
2-1 Vegreville with 5 min remaining
empty net and a 3-1 final
Eichel with the gwg
Great points. Watched Perry carve up the Oilers defence for years with soft touch, against the grain net front passes on the fly-by. He delivers them with perfect weight. He caught McLeod by surprise with a number of great looks in the paint when they were together on a line. Incredibly deceptive and makes something from nothing a few times a game.
When I think about it, I just don’t see Kane being impactful on the current iteration of the 3rd line, at least not to the extent he can be (and we need him to be).
This isn’t due to Kane “earning it” or Nuge “earning a demotion” but Kane has the best chance to impact the game playing with McDavid and I think Nuge is a better fit on a “checking third line”
Without any roster moves (i.e. until Holloway is recalled), I would go:
Kane/McDavid/Hyman
McLeod/Drai/Foegele
Nuge/Henrique/Brown
Janmark/Carrick/Perry
I was thinking along the same lines. Nuge hasn’t been finishing his chances so might be time to try someone different on the top line.
It wouldn’t address the 3rd line speed concerns that have been voiced by some (which I also think are overstated), but I was thinking about Perry back at 3RW.
Kane-x-Perry have been 5-2 goals on the year with strong underlying numbers (Henrique being C for one of the GF).
I don’t mind your lines either (nor giving Kane-Henrique-Brown some more time).
I recall reading a litany of posts about two defensively suspect wingers not being an ideal fit as both of Connor’s wingers (one yes, two no).
What’s changed your outlook?
Hyman being a much improved 2-way player this season than in the past – to my eye.
Fair enough, thanks.
Don’t disagree, and also don’t have the numbers to say either way, but appreciate you being candid.
I recall a litany of posts singing the praises of Connor Brown and how this line had been coming along despite all the numbers showing the opposite. Funny how that’s changed very recently aka from last night.
Too bad too cause I think Coach K may have found himself a fodder line that would free up everyone else to win their matchups. Problem there is that Coach K would need to TRUST his other lines to win those matchups without mucking things up by loading McDrai.. trust your players coach. McLeon doesn’t need to score every goal.
Oilers played Colorado last night.
Vancouver played Washington last night.
Oilers gained a point on Vancouver (and gave us a very entertaining game even with McDavid being kind of meh).
That’s a good night.
Last nights game must have been a late weekender. A lot of takes through beer goggles clearly and a lot of grumpy drunks out there.
Did anyone else think it was a mistake to put Henrique out in OT with McLeod as opposed to Foegele?
I presume it was for “defensive conscious” but McLeod is elite defensively and, McLeod/Foegele are rolling as a pair and Henrique is, well, extremely slow and, well, not really all that impactful right now.
I don’t think there is defensive conscious in overtime.
Broken finger for Desharnais, via ON.
BaggedMilk breaking news now!!
Timeline MAY be longer but better news that a concussion for sure.
They can call Broberg up without LTIR and presume they will.
I’m sure Troy S. gets the first reps, this is the reason they acquired him, but they do need to work Broberg in for sure.
There is an argument that a true puck mover would be good for Nurse and I wonder if they put Ceci or the new guy with him.
The new guy has apx 500 NHL games and was playing 18 min a night this year.
I worry about the PK.
I wish Max Wanner was two years older.
You can see the potential with him – and he had a great game last night.
Yeah, I watched it and was struck by how much he’s improved this season. I liked him out of the box, but he’s getting better.
Holland is the GM. You mean 10 years older.
First significant injury of the year, outside of whatever McDavid has been playing/ has played through.
And whatever Ekholm was battling had half the fan base ready to toss Bouchard out with the bath water
I’m not so sure about that.
After the all-star break, Stauff let if out that he KNOWS Drai had been played injured pretty much the entire first half.
Seems like several posters got lost today, on their way to OilersNation or Twitter.
I’ve read this comment a few times today as I’ve scrolled through the comments and I’m lost – what does this mean?
A fair few salty, overly negative hot takes lacking context or numbers to back up a stated position. People venting after losing the game last night. Comments generally up to a lesser standard than I’ve come to appreciate from this corner of the Al Gore, as opposed to other venues.
I generally scroll past, but it seems more frequent these days.
Oh, I see – got it!
We had some respect issues but it’s all good now.
Tight checking game for the most part. Didn’t feel like a playoff game to me, not enough hitting.
39 hits for the Oilers & 30 hits for Av’s.
Not enough?
That Colorado forecheck was something else. Oilers had no answers for it. A lot of sloppy zone exits by my eye. Will need to clean that up before the playoffs.
Zone exists and puck management are the Oiler 2 biggest areas of weakness.
Has been forever.
Forget controlled exists, they struggled to get the puck outside the blue line.
Tide, great post as always. I may be getting ahead of myself here but can you do a roster projection for next year using capfriendly? I love those.
New deals for Broberg and Holloway and maybe Desharnais. Maybe a Kulak trade? And some depth forwards.
“Maybe a kulak trade” This fan base sometimes. Then proceeds to whine about it after it happens. Hello Jeff Petry.
The temperature in Alberta will be close to 20 Celsius today and throughout the week 😀
Chinook? What explains such anomaly?
https://weather.com/en-CA/weather/today/l/72882184b520d3e7e0ea0ff21abcf52c78977cdbcb28baaf71ca6fad0fa677c0
😀
Why don’t you just insult posters directly, instead of “how many people” or “this fan base”
Make your case if you disagree.
Wonder who we try to dump Kane on in the offseason
How many people don’t understand what a NMC means?
how many people don’t understand that players with NMCs still get traded
Do you anticipate he’s going to be happier with his role on the third line next season?
I am now a bel-skinner-iever.
Having a bonafide starting goalie gives the Oilers a great shot this year.
Sure a lot of venom in the game day thread after the loss. One would have thought the Oilers were dominated and blown out.
I had to catch a flight so only watched the first 2 periods. I thought the game was great.
Our host wrote:
The Oilers gave up 3 goals and Leon was a minus 3 on the night. I’m not sure how to reconcile the stat with the Lowtide’s assessment. Was Drai a victim of bad plays by others 3 times?
Bingo was his name yo!
Lost Sean Walker on the first goal.
Also in picture for OT goal against.
Leon will have to be better defensively
He could have won it with his beautiful pass for a Nuge breakaway. Nuge goes for the deak instead of his patented shot.
Leon played over NINE minutes versus MacKinnon at five-on-five without surrendering a goal. 5-4 shots. That’s a great game. He was 0-2 five-on-five and in both cases was in photo but there was plenty of effort.
I have no problem defending Draisaitl on that game, while also acknowledging his dangerous passes need to be trimmed. I also mentioned he didn’t read the play well on the Walker goal but you live with it.
I’m more inclined to blame the coach for the extended minutes, although the third and fourth line were an issue.
It is interesting that regardless of forward depth, every Oiler coach cannot resist loading up McD and Drai.
Other teams load up and win? Look at last night as for an example. Avs have always loaded up. For some reason we are scared of it in oil country. The real issue now, is not finding some other lines the push the river when you do, because in the end, they always will end up playing together when it matters. That should be focus to close out the season. But will it be?
Today, Monday & Tuesday it is blue skies and sunshine with temperatures in the upper mid-teens.
This is the forecast for at least one of the communities on Vancouver Island this week. There should be lots of happy people in many municipalities there this week.
Hopefully it is contagious! 😀
I like Carrick although not young he adds some sandpaper that Holloway, Brown and Kane must be saving up for the playoffs. The Carrick Goal was a beauty he also seems veteran smart not to get goaded into penalties especially if they run into a dweeb ref in a crucial playoff game.
Put McDavid on MacKinnon, and McDavid on Eichel at home. It is silly to do anything else.
Why try to be cute? Make it big dick against big dick. What let McDavid avoid that mano-a-mano matchup? It should be embraced, not run away from. Cut off the head of the snake.
The train of thought could be to shelter McDavid because he knows something most of the fans don’t and some suspect.
The only problem I can see with playoffs is which ever west conference team who makes it is going to be widdled down to a stump lol.
Every series is going to be heavy.
Witchcraft and ancient remedies will be required, perhaps oilers can conjure a druid for the bench in playoffs.
Same in the east.
I propose a line shuffle/speed infusion.
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
McLeod-Drai-Foegele
Holloway-Henrique-Brown
Kane-Carrick-Janmark
Ganger-Ryan
Perry to Bakersfield?
Glad I refreshed… you beat me to it, word for word…
Oops… thought I was missing something…
hmmm… I guess switch brown with Perry?
point is, every line needs a speed infusion or what happened to line 3 last night will keep happening.
Holloway is the new JP. Fans will place him in the line up and down the lineup with hopes he is going to be 3rd best player on the team. When in reality he is a 4th liner with lots and lots of speed to burn. Great play by Perry last night on the Carrick goal. If only the top guys checked instead of goal chasing with 3 to go…
Flames propaganda bot?
I would run Kane up with McDavid. Kane has plenty of speed when he wants to use it. He is more one dimensional that Nuge, but that dimension is better on the boards, better at making space for McDavid and he is a volume shooter. He also has an ego.
This isn’t to say he is better than Nuge, but that spot is better deployment of his skill set in my opinion. This also now frees up Nuge who is valuable all over the place.
Kane is a difference maker, so no. Here’s a variation I would be open to:
Kane Henrique Holloway
Janmark Carrick Perry
Imagine walking away from what Henrique / Kane / Brown did last night….that can’t be unseen.
That was some kind of display.
Adam Henrique looked like he was Standing still in races for loose pucks.
Henrique
SF 2 / SA 14
Connor Brown
SF 1 / SA 13
Kane
SF 2 / SA 14
Where are you going to hide these players in the playoffs?
They did this – on home ice.
Evander Kane played 15:09 last night.
High dangers were ugly as well; 1-13, 1-12, 1-8.
Oddly, we at CoH recorded few specific defensive issues from those 3 forwards, even as they spent way too much time in their own end. I am going to have a second run through of Grade A shots today, review our assignments of contributions/mistakes with an eye to who else was on the ice at the time & their involvement if any.
I don’t think you’ll see many negatives. As you re-watch their shifts be prepared to notice a few ghastly clearing attempts by dmen who have full control and keep an eye on a blocked shot on Bouchard right after a line change. Their pain comes in quick bursts.
Also watch the box outs and tie-ups, see how tight the Ricki Box is played and watch how they play from Colorado’s hash marks back to the Oilers blue. I see pretty darn good neutral zone that nullifies a speed advantage.
Also if you’re just looking to burn some time, take some time to admire the forechecks of McLeod and Foggy against Toews and Makar in the 3rd. Lordy me they are a handful.
Rookie coaches. Huh.
I’m happy KK finally got to see the Avs. He’ll know better what to expect next time around.
Haven’t posed this all year so, so thought I would:
23/24 EDM Goal Diff 65 gp (40-21-4) .646 pts%
EV(3v3,4v4,5v5)
97 w/o 29 (46-32) 59%
29 w/o 97 (32-24) 57%
97&29 On(35-18) 66%
93 w/o 97 or 29 (15-17) 47%
71 (13-15) 46%
Other (18-20) 47%
Net EV +33
SpTm 57-45= +12
w/EN 2-12=-10
vs EN 10-1= +9
PS 1-0=+1
SO 2-1=+1
Goal Diff +46
72% of their goal diff being from EV play is new.
WC standings as of Mar 17/24 using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
Pacific
VAN 24
EDM 19
LAK 12
Central
WPG 23
COL 23
DAL 22
Wildcard
NSH 14
VGK 11
Out of playoffs
STL 6
MIN 6
CGY 4
SEA 2
ARI -7
ANA -18
CHI -26
SJS -27
It would be pretty hilarious if the Oilers caught Vancouver for 1st in the Pacific/West and still played Vegas in round 1.
EC standings as of Mar 17/24 using points percentage shown as points over/under fake Bettman .500
Atlantic
FLA 26
BOS 26
TOR 19
Metropolitan
NYR 25
CAR 21
PHI 8
Wildcard
TBY 11
WSH 7 (regulation wins tie breaker)
Out of playoffs
NYI 7
DET 7
PIT 1
BUF 1
NJD 1
OTT -5
MTL -6
CBJ -10
A third Connor?
Oilers may be signing goalie Connor Ungar out of U-Sports:
https://49-sport.com/2024/03/17/49-picks-the-u-cup-players-most-ready-for-potential-ahl-contracts/
Credit to OilersNation as well that linked the article.
Fun fact: He was a teammate of both Wanner (MJ last year) and Chiasson (Brandon in ’20-’21).
I suppose the competition to sign him could be referred to as “The Ungar Games”.
And Holloway in 2018-19 with Okotoks and Grubbe in 2021-22 in Red Deer.
He was also one of the four Warriors suspended for the rest of the regular season for unexplained breaches of conduct in Edmonton with 6 weeks left. Ungar, Wanner & 2x 16 year olds.
Presumably the Oilers have already done teir due diligence re: Wanner so have a head start on other NHL teams in that dept.
Ungar has put up great numbers for 3 years in a row on 3 different teams. This after 3 full years being buried on Brandon Weat Kings (13 GP combined).
Fun fact,his last junior season Connor Ungar’s backup was named Jackson Unger.
Just came to post this. Seems like a solid bet, let him run with Brochu backing him up in the ECHL next season or maybe beat out Fanti if he’s back for Condors #2. Logan Thompson with the same path is an interesting comp.
Now add Eric Florchuk to the cart and a tidy bit of business with a head start on adding to the talent pool which is much needed.
Signing Ungar (or Florchuk, or anyone else for that matter) would put them at their 50-contract limit.
AHL deals are an option too, I suppose.
This. ATO for 2023-24, then an ELC from 2024-26 (pretty sure it’s 2 years for a 22-year-old)
Yes that was my thinking as well, ELC starting next season. Appreciate the clarification which I left out
And just a few months ago, LT was complaining that we had too many open spaces on our 50 man bingo card.
Ty “Thunderbolt” Taylor?
I would not include him anywhere near the goalie picture even at the ECHL level, although the Glasgow Clan is a wicked team name haha.
That was a wonderful game to watch.
Colorado loaded up to stop 97, it cost them Mackinnon, Rantanen, Toews, and Makar.
Job well done, but Leon’s on another line. It’s Eichel line depth and the Oil should be able to win that matchup. Colorado exploits matchups better than anyone at home so would expect much different deployment in game 2. Home ice in playoffs may be key to beating them.
I also maintain Colorado traded away what made them unique. Nobody had their level of skill on D and they traded it to try to get a 2nd line maybe. Good for us, confounding for them.
Byram out, Walker in.
Also: Johansen out (half retained), Mittelstadt in.
I don’t consider Byram and Walker to be in the same universe. 2 goals be damned.
Till the last half of the 3rd it was actually Drai, McLeod and Foegle facing the MacKinnon unit for the bulk of shifts. 97 had some freedom to play with but for most of the game looked like he was trying to do too much out there rather than simplifying.
I did not like any of KK’s decisions in the last half of the third. Although sometimes as a coach you just have to find things out.
What. A. Game. Thoroughly enjoyed it, and I thought the 1st period was great (not sure what Friedge was on about).
I suppose my only gripe, and it’s along with LT’s words of wisdom here is with “getting the puck out when it’s the only job”. On the second goal there were several chances the top line were looking for the jailbreak the other way (offence first mentality), which is a common theme and on the last sequence, when the pass didn’t get to (I think) Hyman he was already outside the blue line. Stay in the zone as a five man unit, exit with numbers when it’s safely out… unless you’re “sure”. Last night they “assumed”, and it cost them. Perhaps you can play this strategy against lesser teams, not the Avs. But the habits should be practiced no matter the opponent.
I can’t wait for the next two matches with the Avs in the next month.
If you go back and look at the OT goal MacKinnon actually kicks that puck with his back foot to his stick for a one touch, no looker pass. To me he is clearly the second best player in the world.
I know everybody is salivating over the projected team USA roster but good luck facing McDavid or MacKinnon for over 2/3rds of the game.
MacK had been a beast this season; his drive to win is second to none. The Avs match up really well against the Oilers; their strengths are our strengths, and their weaknesses are our weaknesses.
I’m not worried about the Avs in the playoffs mostly cause I don’t think they have the depth to get past the Stars or Jets.
This was a fantastic game. Both teams were full healthy (I don’t count Landeskog as a player in the NHL any longer) and both teams got plus goaltending and they tied the games.
Lets not forget, there is no 3 on 3 OT in the playoffs. The Oilers were playing well in the third, they scored two goals in that period, and they were using all 12 forwards. Their play was sustainable in to a 5 on 5 OT session.
Lets also not forget that Nuge had a clear breakaway in OT – he probably buries that 50% of the time and its all elation in Oil Country.
What if Kane doesn’t ring the cross off the Brown pass?
That was a 50/50 game in my opinion – maybe I’m being biased but we are looking at a 6-7 game playoff series that really could go either way if there is healthy.
Great blog read this morning LT.
iI was upset over the sudden and disheartening loss, but that was a blessing in disguise.
This team (and fans) put on the blinders when they win. All is forgiven. This has allowed some common weaknesses in their game to continue. They and us seem to need the losses in order to grow. The growth is not coming from wins. The talent they have on the roster is winning games. But, but, but….How do you best teams with equal level of talent?
Oilers proved they have the goaltending, they have the speed, they have some grit, they have the depth to roll lines and special teams. It’s all there.
The Oilers also proved they can play a responsible game, they can do it, but don’t do it enough so mistakes still occur. Mistakes will always occur, but Oilers mistakes are often repeated. Thus they can be addressed.
A couple of specifics. Top players need time and space to do their thing. When it’s taken away they have to play on the perimeter or are shut down altogether. At that point, what’s the plan? There isn’t one. because plan A always works. Until you are playing the top 5% quality hockey.
Frustration can set in, poor passes, cheating, ect. Some coaching needs to happen in regard to the “tight” game plan.
As far as Connor /Leon go, they are not the type of creative talent you dial back, but to beat equal teams you need greater number of shots, simpler plays. However, while normally the too fancy game can apply to them, I did not see this as a problem last night. I thought they did try for more shots/ safer/ simpler plays. It’s not often all this passes to Bouchard go unrewarded.
Another minor point. The breakout up the middle, puck possession has been excellent. But Avs were reading it and pinching, they have the D to do this. So knobby did switch to high wingers outside the zone for a quick out. It was a nice to see tactic switch.
Foegle scored that goal on a line with Nuge at center, not Leon. I think that’s notable and I think its notable that the mentioned line (with Nuge) was fire last night. Both McLeod and Foegele are legit and they are all but proving they are legit top 6 players. McLeod is going to be a massive bargain next year as 2LW/3C, elite defensive player and solid PK guy. Foegele, well, I’m not sure how they bring him back. Is there a chance he signs 3 years at apx $3MM? Probably not. I know its a “contract year” but I think his play is sustainable – he was really good down the stretch last season but couldn’t shoot due to a wrist injuru.
I thought Leon was very engaged and he was skating well except for the two times that he didn’t and they cost two goals. I know Walker had position but Drai is a bull and he can’t lose that battle. The OT winner, well, he could have prevented that and he didn’t
Bouchard took a lazy mindless angle on McKinnon and failed to keep himself between the opposing forward and the net … know who it is and put in max effort with 4 seconds remaining. GreT game otherwise by Bouche … many shots on net … eventually they go in
He had 15 shot attempts last night. FIFTEEN!
Plus thhe uncredited one that Foegele tipped home.
Teams don’t mind giving up shots from the point. It is a perimeter shot. True, Al MacInnes and Bouchard make them slighlty more dangerous, but they are still perimeter shots for the most part. Vegas and the Jets won’t mind Bouchard shooting day and night, with their tight collapsed boxes. They will try to get shinpads in front, get deflections, and take advantage of Ekholm’s slowing speed, and Bouchard’s nanchalance on retreating hard, and beat them back down the ice.
That’s fair but I would suggest that when Bouchard has the puck on his stick that much in the offensive zone, good things are generally going to happen.
A number of those shots were not perimeter as well – he has some attempts from closer.
Pre-scouts will also note this and it could open up some passing lanes for good looks – and Bouch is smart enough offensively to make those passes.
Bouch was hit with a number of passes as a trailer or 4th man into the zone and took shots in the slot. They weren’t all perimeter shots. Keep slinging!
Not too worried about the loss last night could have gone either way. Oilers need some tough competition down the stretch to wake them up. Skinner looking sharp which is the most important thing. I’m still waiting for Henrique to do something. He looks very slow out there. In overtime he was trying to get to the bench and it was painful to watch. I will say I’m a bit concerned about Vinny taking Ceci’s spot these days and the drop off in Ceci’s game. Vinny has played well but when he plays too much he still makes rookie mistakes.
Henrique’s line was tasked with playing against MacK – those were extreme tough minutes.
Desharnais makes more plays with the puck and gets it to good spots on the ice more than Ceci does. He’s moved past Ceci on the depth chart. I would like to see what Stetcher can bring now.
I really like Vinny’s game. He is making a lot of plays out there. Is he ready for top pair minutes? Probably going to be some growing pains there.
Neither of these things is true.
Henrique did play 5:42 against MacKinnon last night, but that’s less than either Draisaitl or McDavid.
And Desharnais. I guess I can’t say with certainty he makes less plays etc than Ceci, but he does have worse real and underlying numbers with Nurse than Ceci does. I’m not convinced the current pairings are going to last.
Henrique looks like a very poor fit with 0 ability to keep up with the Oilers pace … he looks like a serious mistake and a net drag on the team at this point … on the positive side at least he is invisible.. which means not making mistakes
Hard to know as he has been saddled with Brown, who has been a drag on every line he’s played on this season.
Just need Henrique to play 3C and saw off at 50% goal share.
Would be nice if he was “at least a threat to score”
My ultimate wish is for Holloway to barge his way onto that 3rd line with Kane & Henrique
19’s line is a threat to score when the coach doesn’t let them play 5 min vs the best (or 2nd best) line in hockey for 5 minutes when at home.
I did some math and projected their points total based on the Knoblauch clip (projected over 70 GM’s, plus the Woody total 12 gms), and I have them finishing at 110 points. But I’m no rocket surgeon.
Nailed it this morning LT.
I rewatched the Coach K postgame interview and I think he and the coaching staff Saw the Light last night. They’ll pour over the numbers and see just how effective the Cloud-Drai-Fog lines was and Gord willing they’ll keep the blender in the cupboard against The Leafs next week.
I was very intrigued by the matching of the CB-Henrique-Kane line against MacKinnon and Co. A bend but don’t break strategy of the highest order but also a group that plays a pretty tight box in the dzone. Need to see more reps but if they can hack the duties of stunting Top Comp a couple of times a game there should be loads of favorable matchups that McD, Leon and whoever is 4C will see.
MacKinnon was a wrecking ball against everyone except Draisaitl and McDavid last night.
Here’s MacKinnon’s Expected Goal Share vs Oiler players last night (sorted by 5v5 TOI vs MacKinnon)
Player MacKinnon xGF% vs player
Forwards
Draisaitl 47.8
Foegele 67.1
McDavid 53.7
Henrique 98.2
McLeod 84.8
Hyman 65.8
Kane 97.7
RNH 82.9
Brown 100.0
Perry 84.0
Carrick 100.0
Janmark 100.0
Dmen
Nurse 94.2
Bouchard 68.5
Ekholm 76.6
Kulak 66.3
Desharnais 88.7
With MacKinnon having 98%, 98% and 100% expected goal share vs Henrique, Kane and Brown respectively, I would say he bent them like a paperclip, and it was only Skinner that kept it from breaking.
I hope Knoblacuh learned from that.
Both things can be true. They got schooled in the maths, but there’s an eye test angle that offers some context.
Cb-Henrique-Kane, played an old style defensive game last night. There were shots, but it was coming from the outside, it was coming from wider angles, the middle was clogged up and when one got through the collapsed effectively and were key marks on tying up sticks and clearing the zone.
If you take a look at the four shifts they had in the 3rd – for the 1st one chance was off a rush as a line change was happening, Bouchard’s shot got blocked. The zone time in two shifts was the result of errant passes by Bouchard, Kulak and Ekholm (who got trapped out long on a shift around 13:11 remaining). On the 4th shift, shortly after the Walker tying goal a sequence of pain starts when Stu decides to play a dump in and Ekholm soft chips one up the boards, after shot attempt is scrambled left, Bouch soft chipped one up the glass, easy pickings and the cycle starts again, a 3rd time Ekholm went soft off the board. Easy pickings for skilled D like Makar and Toews. Each time CB-Henrique-Kane got into positions, took away the middle and once shots came through did a good job of tying up and boxing out. The outlets that eventually broke these cycles came from CB and Kane winning board battles and getting soft touches out.
On the 1st and 3rd shifts once they broke the Avs initial cycle they didn’t allow the MacKinnon line re-entry, they played tough in the neutral zone and were safe in the O-zone. They choked off high speed plays up the middle and forced resets before passes came tight along the board.
This is where I agree with OP that there is something to the eye test. Once they are established this line is pretty good in choking off the high danger chances in zone coverage and they are getting much better at winning possession after a shot comes in.
There is no explaining away 98%, 98%, 100% expected goal share against.
You can clog up the center of the ice but you will lose thay match up way, way, way, way more than you win or break even like last night
You seem to have missed a substantial chunk of Say it Isn’t So’s point.
Also, outside of McDavid and Drai, what sort of sample size are we talking about for the other center matchups?
Watching a confident Ryan McLeod play has been an absolute joy.
Would have liked to see him a bit more in OT… 71/97 (speed demons) or 71/29, just to change up the overtime recipe
He is becoming more patient with the puck this year. Having Nuge as a mentor is great, but having Henrique there too should do him well.
In my view, he didn’t play “soft” last night, not “hard”, but for sure he had some “grit” to his game. I’m merely speculating here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the “hard” types let him know, “we” have your back. I’m talking about Kane and Perry specifically, perhaps Kane showed him the video “what is anybody here gonna do about it”.
So Vinny didn’t play after the fight last night and coach said he was held out for “potential injury” and they hope its just precautionary. To me that sounds like he had his bell rung. Here is hoping it nothing, no concussion but, with the addition of Troy S. (not to mention Broberg), they have the ability to be really careful with a potential head issue and give the new guy some reps. Maybe even with Darnell to see how he does with a puck-mover. Montreal and Buff on the schedule as well.
It shouldn’t be a mitigating factor but it could be Vinny’s 100th NHL game in Montreal – would be tough for him to miss, I’m sure.
Vinny needs some fight coaching. I keep hearing some of the local NHL guys on the radio saying that he is too open and vulnerable when he fights. Funny how last year he grabbed a spot on the Oilers by fighting and grabbing guys by the neck in the scrums. Now he is on a pair with Nurse and too valuable to fight lol.
Both Struds and Big Geroges have mentioned this.
Why have the Oilers been playing Broberg on the left side in Bakersfield? Holland doubled down on his mistake to not try Broberg on the right side with Nurse, by not giving him reps on the right side in Bakersfield. If a right side D goes down, Broberg is the real #7, and he is going to be forced to play the right side in the playoffs without reps, without reps even in Bakersfield.
Shoot Holland into the sun this summer.
The Oilers clearly don’t see him as a right side option at this point.
Yes, we all know he’s played the right side but, truth be told, that was pretty much only in Sweden and I recall some intel that he was much less effective on the right side – and that’s with the bigger ice and more time on puck retrievals, etc. He’s never really played the right side much in the AHL and playing the left side on a leftie/leftie pairing is a tell.
The Oilers have four right shot D right now – the 4th has aps 500 NHL games and was playing 18 minutes per game prior to acquisition by the Oilers.
The Oilers will be second guessing themselves today if Vince has a broken hand or injured shoulder.
What Broberg has done in the past is not relevant.
The team is weak on defensive depth, they should be even more aware of this today, and in response do everything they can to make sure that depth is ready.
To me this is not just about Broberg. But he is the guy that this task might fall to. Outside Stetcher, he’s next up. We need him to be ready.
He has the wheels for yesterdays game, but lacks confidence. Hopefully he has, and sounds like he has gained confidence in the A. Get him on the right side, then get him up to Edmonton for some reps.
I’m going to argue that if we want a style comp for Desh if he’s indeed injured for medium- to long-term, Kemp is the best fit over both Stecher and Broberg. Defensive depth and breadth, it’s a good thing.
And if that’s the case, get Kemp up for some exposure. He has nothing left to learn in the AHL, but massive jump to NHL so get him ready.
Or … let the guy that we traded assets for to play 4RD get some reps.
I’m saying if Vince is out with injury, Stecher is in and whoever now sits as #7 better be getting ready. Throwing a rookie into nHL playoffs is not a great idea.
I don’t think I agree with this.
The Oilers have a legit every day NHL player as 4RD.
The Oilers have prospect that has shown he can excel in an every day role on the third pair, only not playing due to being blocked, as 4LD.
The Oilers have depth on both sides.
Holland is the beneficiary of 7th round picks that became top 10 in the world … time for a new high intellect GM