2023-24 Game 66: Canadiens at Oilers

It is inevitable. Young players push older players off the roster and the team is renewed and has more financial room to wheel. Charlie Huddy replaced Doug Hicks, Fernando Pisani replaced Daniel Cleary, Wil Acton replaced Anton Lander—well the rule is mostly true. This fall, we’re likely to see another changing of the guard on defense. Just as Evan Bouchard supplanted Tyson Barrie, we’ll see Philip Broberg replace Brett Kulak. I don’t see any other way. It should be an active summer for the new general manager on defense. Here’s a look.

THE ATHLETIC!

• Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl is delivering on a new line
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ potential playoff recalls an impressive group
• Lowetide: Why Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner is a key to the postseason
• DNB: Oilers’ Connor Brown finally scores first of the season: ‘I never was just OK with not scoring’
• Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers’ 2024 NHL Draft without a first-round pick
• DNB: Edmonton Oilers notebook: Adam Henrique’s family adjustment, Connor McDavid’s motivation
• Lowetide: What will Adam Henrique bring to the Oilers down the stretch?
• DNB: Why the Oilers’ old-turned-new second line should be here to stay
• Lowetide: Where can the Edmonton Oilers improve their draft strategy in 2024?
• Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
• At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-0-1)
• On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
• Actual March results: 5-1-2, 12 points in eight games
• Oilers in 2023-24: 40-21-4, 84 points in 65 games

The Oilers have some tough opponents ahead, and can’t look past the pesky Canadiens. I have them going 3-3-1 from here to the end of the month, the club has outperformed my expectations so far in March, perhaps they’ll continue the trend here and on the road.

POSSIBLE 2024-25 ROSTER

Someone asked me to do a roster projection for next season. This is a very simple one, I didn’t do a helluva lot beyond adding Brett Pesce in free agency and trading for Klim Kostin. Brett Kulak and Cody Ceci were sent away to make room, a pick and Klim Kostin the return. RFA’s Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie and Olivier Rodrigue were signed. Pending UFA’s who I signed were Warren Foegele, Vincent Desharnais, Sam Carrick, Troy Stecher, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown. Jack Campbell bought out.

I think the key is keeping the top two lines together, getting a Pesce and keeping it inexpensive beyond Evander Kane on the third and fourth lines. The new general manager might will trade/buyout, I don’t like dealing Ceci or Kulak (they would make a fantastic third pair) but the cap era and Broberg, plus the need for Pesce, make it necessary.

OLD TIMEY STORY

This is my recall, your mileage (hello, Bruce McCurdy) may vary. In 1971 spring, the season my childhood ended with the murderous pounding of my beloved Bruins by the Montreal Canadiens, it seemed to me that the Habs were always fresher. I have no proof, but do recall Phil Esposito staying out for epic shifts and the third line getting caved in. I know it’s old school, but bear with me here. This is the plus minus for the Bruins-Canadiens series using the centers as proxy:

• Cashman-Esposito-Hodge (+/- zero) the line scored 8 goals in 7 games.
• Bucyk-Stanfield-McKenzie (+/- Plus 2) the line scored 7 goals in 7 games.
• Walton/Carleton-Sanderson-Westfall (+/- Minus 5) the line scored 5 goals in 7 games.

Now, Sanderson was a fantastic two-way center in these years, I mean dynamite. In the regular season he was +39, a wonderful number. It should be mentioned Bobby Orr was +124, so the team was a wagon.

For Montreal, the Boston series was the final time John Ferguson ran a regular shift with Jean Beliveau. When my Dad spoke of Beliveau, it was with the same respect he gave Joe DiMaggio or Joe Louis. John Ferguson was the 1960’s version of Evander Kane, it was an era of stick swinging and bloodshed. I am not lying. Marc Tardif would replace Ferguson in the second round, but this is the lineup I recall that spring (and it is backed up by scoring summaries and THN articles of the day).

• Ferguson-Beliveau-Cournoyer (+/- Plus 4) the line scored 8 goals in 7 games.
• Frank Mahovlich-Lemaire-Richard (+/- Plus 10) the line scored 12 goals in 7 games.
• Tardif-Pete Mahovlich-Houle (+/- Minus 3) the line scored 4 goals in 7 games.

Montreal’s second line, with young Jacques Lemaire playing extremely well, flattened the Bruins at every turn. Henri Richard would end up being the lightning rod of the entire playoff spring, as coach Al MacNeil benched him at times and faded him at others. It was wild. I should mention that Ken Dryden had an enormous impact on how the plus-minus went down in this series. I’ll never forget it. Not in the good way, but rather the bad way. Seared into my memory.

OILERS V VEGAS 2023

• McDavid solo: 2-2 goals (50 pct) in 42 minutes
• Draisaitl solo: 2-5 goals (29 pct) in 47 minutes
• 97 and 29: 2-1 goals (67 pct) in 45 minutes
• Nugent-Hopkins solo: 0-3 in 33 minutes
• McLeod solo: 2-2 goals (50 pct) in 61 minutes
• Bjugstad solo: 1-2 goals (33 pct) in 38 minutes

It was a tough series, and the numbers do not lie. Ryan McLeod was doing exciting things during this series (and it was noted far and wide), we are seeing this coaching staff deploy him in a way that optimizes production for the team. One lesson that the coaches can learn: Don’t overplay the glimmer twins now, they don’t need the reps. Keep everyone fresh. I wish we knew Beliveau’s TOI in that series, although he was a much older man at that time.

• Eichel solo: 8-1 (89 pct) in 76 minutes
• Karlsson solo: 3-2 (60 pct) in 68 minutes
• Stephenson solo: 2-5 (29 pct) in 65 minutes
• Roy solo: 2-1 (67 pct) in 37 minutes

Eichel spanked the Oilers. He was 4-0 versus Leon Draisiatl, 5-1 versus Nuge (obviously some overlap), 3-0 versus Bjugstad, 1-0 against McLeod and 1-1 versus McDavid. Oilers badly need that new Leon line to kick out the jams.

I think the 1971 Habs were rested in a way the Bruins were not that spring. Boston got goaltended, the Canadiens had more depth and frankly partied less.

The delightful development down the stretch for me is the coaching staff putting trust (warranted, mind) in Ryan McLeod. He’s Rejean Houle in the lineup above. Later in the playoffs, Houle was on a line with John Ferguson and the veteran told the media after the series that the kid saved him. That could very well happen this spring in Edmonton.

The Oilers third line doesn’t have the dandy fancies but have not been trashed in goal share yet:

• Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 41 minutes, 4-1 goals
• McLeod-Draisaitl-Foegele 37 minutes, 2-1 goals
• Kane-Henrique-Brown 29 minutes, 1-0 goals
• Janmark-Carrick-Perry 13 minutes, 1-1 goals

I’d like to see Dylan Holloway and would not touch the top two lines. Evander Kane is the John Ferguson in this scenario, but he’s got more to give than the Montreal enforcer. I suspect they’ll move Nuge down but don’t recommend it. Man there’s some nice talent in this group.

I’m thrilled with McLeod’s new role. Second-round pick by Edmonton Oilers scouts. I’m sure people will be quick to acknowledge this fact. Remember, when someone tells you the Oilers amateur scouting department sucks, tell them Edmonton is trading so many picks it’s a wonder anyone arrives in the NHL from the meager number of selections.

I’m pleased with the Connor Ungar signing. The Oilers are doing exactly what is needed, adding in pro ready players for the pipeline. Ken Holland got unlucky a little on Noah Philp (retirement) and Ryan Fanti (injuries) in undrafted amateur free agency, but the choices were rock solid. Ungar is the same.

At noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll have plenty of talk about the Oilers-Canadians and March Madness. I’m also going to talk about the CFL draft. Daniel Nugent-Bowman will be our feature guest, we welcome a new sponsor for our Rumours segment and you can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.