I’ve been thinking about Craig MacTavish lately, and how it takes several managers to build a championship level team once you reach rock bottom. For Edmonton, the nadir was (for me) summer 2011 free agency. Then-GM Steve Tambellini had a mile of needs and enough cap dollars to get something done. He signed Eric Belanger, Ben Eager, Cam Barker, Darcy Hordichuk. It was not good.
MacT was general manager in an era of losing. A man often connected with playing men who had his skill set (Shawn Horcoff, Marty Reasoner, et cetera) to the point of distraction, MacTavish was money in the first round of the draft. He chose Darnell Nurse in 2013, and Leon Draisaitl a year later. Things get forgotten over the course of time, sometimes important things. As this Oilers team enters the second round of 2024’s playoffs, it feels right to credit Craig MacTavish with building the foundation of the team we see today. If he had drafted others, would the Oilers be here? I don’t think so.
SETTLING ALL FAMILY BUSINESS
I wanted the Oilers to face Vegas in the opening round. Swallow the frog. I wanted Vegas then Colorado and finally the Toronto Maple Leafs. Settle all family business with the Golden Knights and Avalanche, then set the world on fire by winning over the TML. Los Angeles and Vancouver had other plans, but there’s a chance the Oilers see Vegas or Colorado in the semifinals. The Dallas Stars might be the biggest hurdle of the bunch, as it turns out.
I’ve reached this portion of the Oilers season and find myself with very little anxiety about the team. The club goes about the business of winning in a professional way. The team is prepared. Weird goals still happen, but the players merely restore to the last saved version of themselves that worked and on they go.
There’s no Mike Smith trying to Hail Mary a pass from the goalmouth. There’s no lack of effort or recognizing danger. This is a mature, well coached and talented hockey team giving balls out effort. The sins of the past belong there. The players on the ice now show up on time, help with the chores and own their mistakes while making sure to reset immediately.
I’m pleased it’s Vancouver in the second round. It’ll give Harper’s Hair a chance to tell us about the legends of the fall, from Brogan Rafferty to Don Lever.
Come what may, this spring feels different to me. I’ve been trying to find the words to describe what I’m feeling, without making it about Connor McDavid. McDavid is inevitable, we know he’ll win Stanley but the date and time are beyond us.
This team, and they are a team, have a real chance at Stanley. What, I keep asking myself, is different about this version of the Oilers compared to previous incarnations over the last decade?
They belong. The Oilers belong in the second round. The Oilers belong as the favourites. The Oilers belong as a team you plan your evenings around. The Oilers belong as a team worth following to the point where you can have an elevated conversation with someone while you’re buying eggs at the grocery store.
We do not know what the future will bring us, only that the Oilers belong in the Stanley Cup conversation. That’s a sea change, as the kids say. Welcome to a brand new day.
Huh. The first game of round two starts tomorrow (canes/rangers) and will be played before the Rd 1 – Game 7 of Vegas Dallas. Dont know if I’ve ever seen that before.
It’s all about US national TV schedules.
Sun: Rangers/then Stars
Mon: Bruins
You have to feed the beast.
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
Changes are likely coming for the Leafs but just a reminder that ‘blowing it up’ is not easy with core guys with full no-move clauses. Players have lots of leverage with those clauses. Trades are rarely full value as a result. Something to remember in the weeks ahead.
Marner for Nurse, 1-for-1.
Book it.
The last days of Brendan Shanahan are upon us.
I wonder how hockey history will judge the loser triumvirate of Shanhan, Dubas and Treliving.
Tough to defend that crap sandwich.
Dear Boston.
Thank you!!
We got Cuthbert for the next round!!!! Thank gord!!
This.
Unpopular but I was hoping to see Toronto have some success. They made a valiant comeback effort.
I agree: this is unpopular.
Very unpopular!
Ha! You guys are funny
No mercy!
Having Toronto in the playoffs is the single biggest driver of HRR.
It floats all boats.
Sportsnet execs are now forced to cheer for Vancouver.
“Cry me a river”
~ Justin Timberlake
Increased HRR in these playoffs would not increase next year’s cap in any event given, you know, the max 5% increase that has been collectively bargained. The cap can only go up greater than 5% in the next few years via collective bargaining, not increases in HRR.
Every single cent of gate and TV revenue either contributes to future cap rises or reduced escrow.
The CBA expires in 2 years and with vastly increased revenue from SLC as opposed to Arizona, you can bet the NHLPA will want a big piece.
This does not in any way derogate from the factual nature of my comment regarding next year’s cap.
I wasn’t speaking about next year’s cap.
HRR is, and always has been, cumulative.
While cap increases are restricted for the next two seasons, it’s open season after that.
Losing the Arizona millstone, adding SLC, potential expansion and additional TV deals with Amazon, Apple TV and others will inflate HRR but not having the Toronto/Southern Ontario market as well as Leafs interest across Canada is a drag on that and certainly will affect Canadian TV rights value in the long run.
Sportsnet just saw about 10-15 million of its potential playoff viewership vaporize and that is a huge hit to its bottom line and will have an ancillary effect on all teams eventually.
With the last two Canadian teams playing primarily in the Pacific time zone, eyeballs will be scarce in Canada and that directly affects revenue generation.
The league is likely hoping the Rangers and Stars go on a long run since those markets are #1 and #4 in the US TV market.
Boston is #8 but it’s dwarfed by NY, LA and CHI while COL #17, FLA #18 and CAR #22 are very small.
My understanding is that current year revenue is one of the factors used to estimate the HRR for next year and that estimate is used to determine the cap for teams salaries. Other factors are involved so there is no dollar for dollar affect of one years revenue to the next year’s team salary cap.
I believe that the league has a formula for playoff revenue (for HRR estimate purposes) which is not affected by annual fluctuations caused by major markets going farther in the playoffs or not as the case may be. Any such fluctuation in revenue would only be relevant if there was an outstanding escrow amount to which it could be applied.
The real cap as far as the players are concerned is half of the actual the HRR in the year in question. The escrow account is just security for the owners if the estimated HRR is not reached. Since the escrow is now paid off additional revenue has no effect on that.
It is also my understanding that the players cannot go over the 50% or they have to pay it back through escrow or in recent years the owners allowing them to pay it back over years due to the pandemic drastically reduced HRR.
The owners however can be over 50% and they never have to make it up to the players.
This is all just a long winded way of saying that since the escrow is paid off and the 5% maximum increase is set in stone, additional income in these playoffs will never affect cap or escrow in any way shape or form.
While that is strictly speaking true it ignores the reality of millions of dollars lost through continuing losses by Sportsnet in its deal with the NHL.
That deal for $5.2 billion expires in 2026 and a lack of success by the TML impacts that contract in a major way.
It is highly unlikely Rogers will renew that agreement at that amount if it continues to lose millions.
And suggesting that the 5% increase is set in stone only applies until the CBA expires in 2 more seasons at the same time as the Rogers deal ends.
It would be much better for everyone if the Leafs were successful since it is the most important revenue driver in the NHL.
Fan support is a huge factor in the health of the league and that affects all teams.
Vancouver is now the only top 5 Canadian TV market remaining in the playoffs and the Leafs being eliminated means 8 of the top 20 Canadian markets will now turn their attention to other pursuits.
You can be sure Gary Bettman is hoping the Rangers (#1) and Stars (#4) advance since the LA and Chicago markets (#2 and #3) in the US are all out.
Do you have sources for your numbers?
Sure.
https://www.radiocbs.com/population-top50.php
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/nba-market-size-nfl-mlb-nhl-nielsen-ratings/
HH, those numbers are for overall market, not NHL fanbase, and so won’t be as relevant.
Surely much more relevant when it comes to league earnings is size of fanbase (as outlined here, Sept 2023).
When it comes to fanbase, Boston is 2nd overall, not 8th, and so would be no cause for complaint financially.
The Rangers are 6th, not 1st.
The Stars are 19th, not 4th. (so better to have Edmonton at 17th)
LA is 10th, not 2nd.
Colorado is 13th, not 17th.
As for Canadian teams, the rankings are (more predictably):
5) Montreal
7) Toronto
9) Vancouver
17) Edmonton
24) Winnipeg
25) Calgary
26) Ottawa
That’s not to say overall market potential (city/area size) isn’t a factor for revenue, because that will indicate potential for growth, but it certainly won’t be the most important short term factor.
Let them eat cake!
Trade #34 geniuses.
I know they won’t – but they actually should.
He’s not taking them anywhere.
Trade him to ‘Zona! Homecoming!
… oh, wait. Nevermind.
Which one? Ari or Derek?
The need to trade one of their core for a legit #1D.
Correct. And neither Marner nor Tavares work for that purpose. Nylander appears to want the puck with the game on the line and can cash.
You’re left with the guy who thinks he’s the biggest deal but can’t do it himself. Send him somewhere that wants a famous player.
Perry – McLeod – does not work as a pair.
Perry is too slow to make a difference. McLeod can transport the puck but doesn’t like to get into the dirt.
Foegele tries to be the stick handler, playmaker and it’s not his best game.
Kane will bring the intensity, throw the hits, take the shots.
Holloway will bring the speed, the forecheck, hits, take the shots.
Brown, Ryan, Janmark , won’t work there.
If coach goes McLeod – Perry he needs Kane or Holloway to make it work.
His other choice is to scratch Perry. It has been hard to evaluate Perry’s veteran presence in the dump and chase games.
Oh wow, Pastaman
These long playoff series create this psychological condition where teams are afraid to push to score. Toronto goes up 1-0 and Boston decides to turn it on, and score a goal in a minute. But then the game is tied up again and they retreat into their shells.
So true!
NSH/VCR – 0-0 after 2
DAL/VEG – 0-0 after 2
TOR/BOS – 0-0 after 2
Learn how to score
Somebody is counting their chickens before they hatch.
Low event hockey along with touchy goaltender interference is killing the spirit of the game.
Top 10 scoring teams in the regular season:
COL 304
TOR 303
DAL 298
EDM 294
TBL 294
NYR 282
CAR 279
VCR 279
DET 278
NSH 269
They know how to score.
Perhaps they’re more interested in winning.
Jacques Lemaire hockey has returned.
Not really.
SOG in the BOS-TOR game are 28-28
Toronto: Not scoring and not winning
9 goals total in the last 4 games. 8 were in the 3rd period/OT.
Looking back at the 18 years of playoffs since the lockout, I set out to answer the question, “Do Cup winners play fewer games in the first three rounds than Cup losers?” Well…
Here’s the raw data (winning and losing teams, and their # of losses Rounds 1-3):
’23: VGK (1-2-2), FLA (3-1-0)
’22: COL (0-2-0), TB (3-0-2)
’21: TB (2-1-3), MTL (3-0-2)
’20: TB (1-1-2), DAL (2-3-1)
’19: STL (2-3-2), BOS (3-2-0)
’18: WSH (2-2-3), VGK (0-2-1)
’17: PIT (1-3-3), NSH (0-2-2)
’16: PIT (1-2-3), SJ (1-3-2)
’15: CHI (2-0-3), TB (3-2-3)
’14: LA (3-3-3), NYR (3-3-2)
’13: CHI (1-3-1), BOS (3-1-0)
’12: LA (1-0-1), NJ (3-1-2)
’11: BOS (3-0-3), VAN (3-2-1)
’10: CHI (2-2-0), PHI (1-3-1)
’09: PIT (2-3-0), DET (0-3-1)
’08: DET: (2-0-2), PIT (0-1-1)
’07: ANA (1-1-2), OTT (1-1-1)
’06: CAR (2-1-3), EDM (2-2-1)
11 of those 18 years, the Cup winner actually played more games in the 1st three rounds than their opponent. So I guess the answer is “not necessarily”.
I think my most interesting takeaway was only twice did the Cup winner go the distance in the opening round–and both times their finals opponent did too.
Cool. It does look at a glance like the winning team lost less games typically than the losing team, which makes sense, playing better
Playing more games in the first 3 rounds means losing more games since everyone on the list got to 12 wins.
The above says that the Cup winner lost more than the finals loser 11 of 18 seasons.
Right thx. I’m amazed how you can go through so much data (not this particular one) for so many comments, kudos
“Cool. It does look at a glance like the winning team lost less games typically than the losing team, which makes sense, playing better”
This is true of the first round on average.
Another interesting discovery: The team that played more often in Round 3, i.e., having less rest heading into the final, won 13 of the 18 Cups.
Teams that swept their way into the final only went 3-3.
So…rest doesn’t matter unless it’s after round 1?
Apparently the rust is a real thing
Is it rust, or refined by fire?
On average winners played longer third rounds.
I’ve always been of the expectation that you need to win at least 1 series in 4-5 games to have a chance. But the 2014 Kings say hello. Wowza.
Still, it sure looks like most finalists win at least a series in 4-5 games.
Sorry to some of you who don’t like this stuff. Don’t read it if it bothers you. To me it’s interesting and some others it seems.
At the end of the day GF% tells a strong story, especially in playoffs, no mulligans. xGF% indicates good or weak play, but is magic beans, two birds in the bush
5v5 GP TOI GF/GA GF% Forwards:
Hyman 5 – 75:39 – 6-2 – 75%
McD 5 – 80:46 – 6-3 – 66.6%
Janmark 5 – 42:49 -2-1 – 66%
Drai 5 – 75:39 – 8-6 – 57%
Henrique 5 -70:34- 3-3 – 50%
Kane 5 – 74:30 – 3-3 – 50%
Holloway 5 – 45:31 – 2-2 – 50%
Nuge 5 – 60:10 – 6-6 – 50%
Carrick 3 – 22:18 – 1-2 – 33%
Foegele 5 -54:30- 1-5 16.6%
McLeod 5 – 62:27 – 0-2
Perry 5 – 57:24 – 0-1
Ryan 2 – 15:46 – 0-0
Defense
Bouch 5 – 87:49 – 7-4 63.6%
Kulak 5 – 72:42 – 3-3 50%
Ekholm 5 – 87:49 – 4-4 50%
Nurse 5 – 88:39 – 3-4 42.8%
Des 5 – 70:54 – 3-4 42.8%
Ceci 5 – 90:03 – 2-5 28.5%
It would be nice to see Foegele have a better second round. And to see Drai’s line with Nuge get the GA down. For McLeod’s line to score a few
Ceci got the most 5v5 TOI for D but that’s not pretty. I wonder how the coaches decide to make changes or are happy enough with things. Probably nothing with D as there aren’t many options outside of taking someone out, and I don’t see that yet
2022-2023 GP 5v5 TOI GF% GF/GA for D
Bouch 12 – 210:12 – 47.4% 9-10
Ekholm 12 – 209:19 – 50% 9-9
Nurse 11 – 198.12 – 47.6% 10-11
Ceci 12 – 185:57 – 37.5% 6-10
Kulak 12 – 172:18 – 60% 6-4
Des 12 – 134:49 – 36.4% 4-7
Bro 9 – 59:43 – 80% 4-1
There’s a pattern this year and last, Ceci and Des getting fed at evens. We’ll see how it shakes out, but it seems Des should be a low payed player if they want to keep him. And Bro is a freakin’ beauty
Need to do something at 3C to get Foegle or Hollway and Perry going. It’s doesn’t seem like it’s going to be McLeod at this point (although Foegle and McLeod had success with Draisaitl earlier in the season). I don’t know if the answer is Henrique, Janmark, Ryan, Ganger, or if there is an answer.
Yes I don’t think there are a lot of options now. KK tried a lot of things, I think seeing what he had after the trade deadline, and is back to keeping things somewhat consistent
Barring injury I can’t see them sitting anyone that isn’t really bad (I understand you see McLeod as that)
The problem is not the centre. Foegele has been a drag on every line he has been on so far in the playoffs.
Kane McLeod and Perry were were good in the two games they were together and were unlucky not to score. Foegele killed McLeod and Perry line the next two games.
They were good again when Holloway replaced Foegele in game 5.
I would also point out that Perry was so far behind the play in the last few games he might as well have been on the bench.
As discussed, he has skills in front of the net primarily and the dump chase game is not for him.
Foegele was to blame for some of those Draisaitl goals and Nugent-Hopkins goals against, which is why he ended up going from the 2nd line to the 3rd line to the 4th line over a span of 5 games. Draisaitl was also on for some of the more flukey GA. The 6GA does not reflect his play.
Never believe OP about who are actually top six wingers.
Foegele is who we said he was.
Foegele’s 5 on 5 production, this year, over the last two years and over the last 3 years is what it is – its fact.
Foegele has been poor in the playoffs.
Dick statement that starts with “New believe ____ about….”
How about “never believe Godot about who was responsible for a goal when Bouchard or Foegele or Ceci were on the ice”?
You needlessly overhype players for no good reason, instead of just appreciating them for what they actually are.
You look and stretch to attribute fault to players you don’t value instead of being honest when analyzing goals against.
Will Ryan McLeod continue the pattern of sub-standard perimeter play that he engaged in vs LAK? Or will he go to dirty areas and generate?
So far he is meeting his critic’s expectations, playing a non-physical brand of hockey that generates zero offence. You can give McLeod props for his PK and for decent puck transport (by eye). But other than that, there wasn’t much there vs LAK:
-72 Minutes TOI
-0 points
-4 shots
-10 Shot attempts
-3 hits
-0 GF%
-All relative on-ice shares are all negative (he has never posted positive RELS in the playoffs).
Add to these stats, Cult of Hockey’s contribution/mistakes trackers which shows him to be EDM’s worst performing forward in the LAK series, with the exception of Carrick who had much more limited deployment.
McLeod in the playoffs has essentially shown himself to be a non-physical 4th line player and penalty kill specialist. Not good enough to get the 3C in the second round. You get more from Derek Ryan, Mattias Janmark and probably Connor Brown or Sam Ganger than you do from this guy in playoffs.
Interesting trick, using all of his minutes (ie – including SH minutes).
Even with that I believe you’re mistaken – McLeod’s relative on ice CF%, FF%, SF%, xGF%, SCF%, HDCF% have all been positive one or both of the past 2 playoff seasons. And again, that’s including the PK minutes.
Looking at 5v5 minutes only most of those metrics were positive relative to team 3 of the last 3 playoff seasons (FF% was only positive 2 of 3).
It’s true has GF% has lagged and been negative rel to team, but he did score 2.13 P/60 5v5 last playoffs so it’s not true that he’s been devoid of offense in the playoffs as you say.
I’m not a P/60 fan. Last playoffs tied for third in 5v5 points at 5 behind the Duo, no goals, .42 P/PG. Not bad, especially considering usage, although his GF% was 44.4%, but still ahead of Bjug, Kane, Foegele, Yama, Nuge
Sure, but 0.42 pts/game without PP time is not devoid of offense. Just pointing out some of the blatantly incorrect claims in the prior post.
Yes I was supporting your numbers. Being 3rd for forwards in scoring at evens is very good given he wasn’t sheltered, just like him to pop a few
Yes third P60, 7th in 5v5 TOI with Nick Bjugstad as the centre. McLeod is not producing at 3c. I liked him and Foegele as wingers to Draisaitl. But he doesn’t seem to have it at centre.
Regardless, his last season doesn’t count. Nobody cares what he did last season certainly not his present coach.
McLeod is not having a good playoffs with the exception of his PK, it’s nowhere near enough.
When the best player in the world is laying his body on the line and you get nothing of substance from McLeod it’s disconcerting.
I have to wonder out loud that McLeod is injured.
McDavid has stopped hitting – I believe he has one in the last two games. He was very physical early but has abandoned it (be it injury himself or conserving or whatever, he’s no longer hitting).
There’s no trick – the player has not been on ice for an Oilers playoff goal this season. Count it as 72 minutes or 62. 4 shots during that time.
Yes some RELS are positive and some negative.
Overall – the faults of this player are known by eye and analysis. He does not show in a physical manner.
He literally generated nothing against the Kings. That’s not good enough for 3C.
AND the cult of hockey counts show him to be a liability 5v5 versus that same team.
It’s funny – I repost stats collected by McCurdy and Staples – and you accuse me of a fabrication.
McLeod versus the Kings was at best a non-factor and at worst a liability. If we take the Cult counts seriously he was a liability.
Now, now, all the things I pointed out were untrue statements on your part.
If there’s anything there that was untrue, it was an honest mistake. What’s dishonest is characterizing a case with evidence as a fabrication.
I never said fabrication or dishonest, that was you.
“Interesting trick” is what you said.
“Now, now, all the things I pointed out were untrue statements on your part.”
Condescending nonsense.
McLeod was 4-5 in mistakes which isn’t terrible, 0-2 goals and his lines haven’t score yet, small sample alert. This is against tougher comp. He could be better but he’s far from the biggest problem in the forward group this playoffs
I’m more concerned about Drai/Nuge and Foegele giving up so many GA
“McLeod was 4-5 in mistakes which isn’t terrible, 0-2 goals and his lines haven’t score yet, small sample alert. This is against tougher comp. He could be better but he’s far from the biggest problem in the forward group this playoffs
I’m more concerned about Drai/Nuge and Foegele giving up so many GA”
62 minutes or 72 minutes however you want to count, is not a small sample in the series. Then consider that he only has 4 shots.
If you want to know why the Oilers didn’t pass a 50 percent goal share 5v5 – look at the third line. If you don’t think it’s a problem, then show me a recent Cup winner where the third line generated NOTHING!!!
Kane McLeod and Perry were very good. Games 1 and 2.
Foegele made McLeod and Perry mediocre to bad. Games 3 and 4.
Holloway McLeod and Perry were good.
The problem has been Foegele, not McLeod.
That line is good to a tune of 0-1 goals and 48% expected goals.
McLeod/Foegele has a 56% expected goals.
McLeod without Foegle has a 52% expected goals.
Right off the bat, I have a hard time with the Staples numbers.
His system doesn’t assign a lot of responsibility to the wingers, so we see all the d except Bouch in the red. The wingers looked golden.
It also doesn’t adjust for QOC.
Foegele was probably one of the weaker defensive players though he looks good by the Staples’ numbers.
If anything RNH jumps out at me using the Staples’ numbers.
In playoff hockey, wouldn’t you sort of hope and expect that your top two lines win their minutes and the bottom two limit the bleeding? (especially when rolling 4 lines)
Unless your team is stacked with depth
“Right off the bat, I have a hard time with the Staples numbers.”
Maybe McCurdy who posts here can chime in he counted a good part of them.
But Foegele is 2nd last by Staples
Here’s what I had said, Foegele was probably one of the weaker defensive players though he looks good by the Staples’ numbers”
I probably could have phrased that better in saying something like he doesn’t flag much by the Staples’ numbers.
Staples only tagged him with 2 major mistakes against in the entire series.
Foegele was 5th out of 8 among wingers and 7th out of 13 forwards in major mistakes against /60.
Certainly, using Staples’ numbers, he doesn’t flag as much of an outlier.
Using GA/60, he was second worst on the team with 5.5 ga/60 (Nuge was worse at 5.98 ga/60.
Staples has his Grade A shot +/- which is obviously a very volatile number as + 0.27.
Using actual goal share, Foegele was 16.7%.
In my opinion, the Staple’s numbers don’t appear to do a great job of capturing his defensive deficiencies compared to convention stats for this series.
Interesting take, particularly since the LT article this am, which I am not able to read.
But simply put, McLeod is what we always called a jam tart.
But he brings other elements and I credit him for those contributions. I like him, but he has to be matched correctly in order for him to contribute well.
I ‘m just seeing the Lowetide article on the Athletic now. My post was not intended to be related. I didn’t see it before posting. Maybe Lowetide saw previous comments where I was shocked that McLeod literally had zero contributions whatsoever to Oilers goals for in this past LAK series.
Lowetide takes the position that McLeod suppresses shots. His metrics show this. But I think his 5v5 low rates against are more strongly influenced by his ability to move the puck up ice and his speed, not an amazing defensive ability. This is supported by his zone time statistics on NHL Edge, which puts his Offensive zone time at 60th percentile, and his speed at 98th percentile. Also the Cult of Hockey stats show a higher rate of defensive mistakes. Puck transport is definitely a good thing about the player. His PK stats definitely show shot suppression and speed is an important part of defensive skill.
Lowetide goes on to mention his positive scoring, which causes me to wonder how much of that scoring comes at centre. If the Kings series is representative – he doesn’t produce against more physical teams at centre. Additionally if you look at his offensive contributions using expected goals at hockey viz, the Oilers have stronger offence when he’s off the ice.
McLeod does not shoot the puck very much. His shot rates are under 50th percentile according to NHL Edge. Both his attempts and shots seem low to me, especially when he plays centre.
So this is a player who moves the puck up the ice, suppresses shots on the PK, maybe makes mistakes 5v5 as centre, but has an over-all relative negative effect on team offence, likely due to perimeter play and low individual shot rate. Other factors showing in WOWY xGF60 would be 97 and 29 time.
I wonder who will be doing the play by play, please not Singh.
Funny how different viewers have different tastes. I have always enjoyed Singh’s commentary, it is Louie, the non-technical, technical analyst who drives me mad – “shooter mentality”, “go to work”, “”we talked about”, cliches with very little of interest.
Looking at 5v5 GF% of the remaining west teams, Oilers 12-12, Dys 8-7, Stars 9-8, Knights 8-9, but the Avs 17-12
All pretty even, the Oilers scored more than most but couldn’t keep the GA down. Yes there were 3 lucky ones. Were the Jets terrible, or were the Avs just too good, ruining Helly along the way? Man that’s a sudden turn around for them from reg season play if it’s the latter
So wide open and competitive. I hope whomever the Avs get next has enough left to grind them down a lot. And the Oilers make quick work of the Dys
Hellybuycyk says it’s the latter.
https://x.com/jessemontano_/status/1786055187750166645
(click for video)
I wouldn’t be able to stand a finals series with the Leafs.
The game management turned to 11 because the easterners are convinced it would make the NHL another billion dollars to have the jokers win would he intolerable.
Oh, look- Harpers Hair favorite team is changing!!!
🤣🤣🤣
Maturity – this team really seems to have taken the necessary steps. They were the more disciplined team in the first round (by far) and the more patient team.
They also didn’t let “bad things” faze them. They didn’t let that stantien goal in game 5 alter their play. They didn’t let the Kings pulling to within one late snowball in to a blow lead.
Etc., etc.
Have they “learned the playoffs lessons”? Maybe. Is the current coach and his methods and demeanor part of this? Maybe.
Will this be a factor vs. the Cancuks? I do think so and I do have an example that springs to mind.
Remember the last minute of game 5? Of course, its the end of the game, every player on the ice is willing and ready to do what it takes to prevent the tying goal.
Derek Ryan breaks his stick but he stays calm. He continues to stay in shooting lanes and remains active but in control. He dives at a puck when he had a legit chance to get it out but he looked in control the entire time. A vet that had been in the playoffs and these situations before.
Contract that to JT Miller in the last 15 seconds last night. Kudos to the player for being willing to sell out but he was an absolute chaotic mess diving into his own goalie, bumping his own goalie again, etc., etc.
I’m sure contrasting these two examples is not actual based in reality….. or maybe there IS something there????
We won’t know until they aren’t playing anymore, hopefully for the right reasons. They haven’t faced yet what they are going to. LA’s coaches neutered their team. Canucks Vegas Dallas Avs are going to be far more challenging and put a lot more offensive pressure on them. And play a lot faster which causes mistakes
With the Ryan example, he has always been a guy who keeps his head, that’s his game
Although we won’t like it (well most of us), there should be absolutely no surprise that the every game in the 2nd round will have an 8pm broadcast time (puck drop 7-22 minutes thereafter) – well at least for the first 4 games for sure while there are 4 series still going.
Noone should expect a broadcast time earlier than 8 mountain, right?
That kills me
Living in Ottawa I wouldn’t be upset at that start time. That 7:50 start in LA was almost 11pm, exhausted the next day. Thank goodness I work from home.
Picking Drai over Sam Bennett was, in hindsight, probably the biggest decision the franchise has made in recent years. Did it come out of foresight, or just wanting size?
Nurse over (presumably) Nichushkin was probably a good call, although the latter has finally turned his career around. Did it come out of foresight, or just wanting a defenseman? (At least they didn’t pick Ristolainen.)
Those are the only two out of MacTavish’s two drafts that had NHL careers.(unless you want to include Laggeson, who was a tweener for a couple of years.) When I think of MacTavish as GM, Eakins, Will Acton, Captain Fernuckle all immediately come to mind, as well as his treatment of Petrie and Dubnyk. With all due respect to our host, I think his view of that era is definitely tinted by rose coloured glasses.
I think for Drai it was wanting the big C who could protect the puck and of course had talent. Same for Nurse, a big mean defensive D, even though Risto had the crazy offensive talent at that age. The Oilers and Russians have never mixed well
I’m not sure anyone can know what will happen. Drai could have easily ended up the lesser player to Bennett, math said you take Bennett – more points and also faster and mean as a snake. Turned out well
No, the biggest decision the franchise made was trading for Griffen Reinhart which arguably cost the Oilers dearly.
I think this is the second time you’ve phrased it this way. Just a heads up. It’s actually “eat the frog.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XvkBY1JYymE
Hopefully Bourgault receives the message and can put himself back on the map as a real prospect with hard work this summer and next season in the last year of his ELC.
I guess you could call the Oilers Canada’s team.
The depth chart is comprised of:
16 Canadians
2 Swedes
1 American
1 German
The Canucks roster:
8 Americans
3 Canadians
3 Swedes
2 Russians
1 Czech
1 Swiss
2 Latvians
I wonder if there has ever been another playoff team with two Latvians playing?
The lack of Americans on the Oilers roster also strikes me as very unusual.
Or smart. It seems that they prefer playing at home. Such a list of drafted players heading south. Ryan has strong Edmonton ties
Do you think that is by design?
Who knows but it looks like they want Canadians. It could be a hangover from nobody wanting to play in Edmonton and Canadians are more likely to not care as much
…and then? Waiting for the backhanded compliment or insult from the ancient newsfeed agrigator…really can’t take a thing you say at face value, because you cannot have an original thought without an agenda. My heavens, you are the baddest of bad actors.
Holland was backyard to many coveted Americans yet he went on a walkabout choosing Broberg.
Zegras also not exactly a two way player that Holland was used to with Dats and Zett. Undersized show boater
Shrempian.
Weird to see an Oilers team lacking in Finns and Czechs.
Also – I prefer a sprinkling from the Mironov/Kovalenko tree on the squad.
There are currently 48 Finns playing in the NHL…Dallas has 4…Colorado 3
32 Czechs…widely scattered.
66 Russians…Tampa has 4
101 Swedes…Minnesota has 5…Anaheim has 6 but some are free agents.
Montreal is notable in that it has only 3 Americans, 15 Canadians, 1 Czech, 1 Finn and 0 Swedes.
One could call it “Ontario’s Team” – I think 12 of those 16 are from Ontario.
Nice Ahletic piece LT. I think McLeod’s speed is his weapon. If he wasn’t so fast his lack of physical would probably be an issue. Speed is his plus skill
Nashville won a lot of hockey games in the last 3rd of the season to get into the playoffs. Vancouver beat a team that had been winning games. Denigrating Vancouver’s victory smacks of overconfidence.
I will be happy with a series win in 6 for the Oilers.
Nashville could have won that series. Either team might have scored that first goal late in the third. It just happened to be Vancouver. Anything could happen. We mustn’t count our chickens before they’ve hatched. I just hope Oilers can win four games before the Canucks.
Will be interesting to see if Knoblauch hard matches 97 to Miller’s line. As others have mentioned, the Miller line is the heartbeat of their team. Beat that line and you probably beat the Dys.
Tocchet has more control of the matches in Vancouver. I doubt Knoblauch tries very hard to force the matchups on the road.
If Tocchet line matches and keeps Miller away from McDavid and McDavid plays 20-22 minutes I would think that in itself is a win.
The think the more interesting question is whether Miller and Petersson play together or on different lines.
Like the Oilers, Tocchet only re-unites the Lotto Line in specific situations.
They started last night’s game together, I think in an effort to get #40 going, but it didn’t last long.
Could be. But I think either way McDavid and or Draisaitl wins the match up however Tocchet plays it.
Your PuckIq (thanks for that great site) sure says that. Also Garland and Blueger seem to push in the bottom 6 against weaker comp. Our bottom 6 guys will have to be on their toes and skating with them
Don’t overlook Dakota Joshua on the 3rd line.
He’s a nasty piece of work that drives the net and had 2G and 2A in the first round.
He’s been good. I think Tocchet has had him top 6 and I’m not sure he’s good enough for that. Reminds me of MacTavish
That’s an excellent comparison.
He had some time on the top line as a puck retrieval banger but seems to do well in any role.
Oilers struggled with Van’s physical forecheck in the last game of the season. Hopefully the coach has something planned out, especially since that style contrasts so much with how the Kings play.
Mcdavid didn’t even play that game and they still outplayed them. Desmith played terrific.
https://moneypuck.com/g.htm?id=2023021280
I don’t take moneypuck as gospel but you can see the Lotto line, Hughes pair, Joshua, etc. got fed. Desmith loves the Oilers but outplaying the Nucks in 3 of 4 and getting 0 wins is unlikely to continue.
Short series, small samples, and a random goalie could make this close but the Oil once again have all they need to handle this series confidently.
LA was a top 5 possession team and the Oil outpossessed them. Nucks are not in that class 5v5 but have a much stronger PP.
The Canucks and Oilers both faced very defensive teams in their first rounds, that both had offensive issues. Reg season the Kings were 21st for goals at evens, the Preds 17th
Here are the two team’s positions in the playoffs for some stats 5v5 so far:
Oilers
CF% 15th
SF% 11th
GF% 9th
xGF% 11th
HDCF% 7th
HDGF% 1st
HDSH% 5th
SH% 1st
HDSV% 4th
SV% 13th
Canucks
CF% 5th
SF% 12th
GF% 5th
xGF% 5th
HDCF% 3rd
HDGF% 4th
HDSH% 13th
SH% 7th
HDSV% 1st
SV% 2nd
It will be interesting to see how the games turn out, if it’s tight or more open as both teams have more offense than their last two opponents
Looking at these numbers I am less sure that they will take the Dys down without too much trouble. Silovs saved their bacon. Stu has to match him. The numbers say it could be a closer series than it seems
Compared to the other15 playoff teams the Oilers are only better then the Dys in HDGF%, HDSH%, SF%, SH% of the 10 stats. Those are 1 finishing and 3 shooting stats, but the Dys were playing Saros and probably a better D group than LA
What numbers?
Most places have Oilers at 70% + odds
Vegas betting has the Oil at about -240 to -250
Dom has the Oilers at 71%
What can we really make of the first round numbers? The Oilers 5v5 numbers are pretty mediocre but they were also leading most of the series (both in individual games and the series). How much of the 5v5 game was the result of score effects?
I’d take these numbers with dump truck of sodium.
Only the NYR spent more time ahead in their series and Vancouver spent more time playing from behind vs Nashville.
Think of the way Edmonton played in game 4 vs games 1 or 2.
The Canucks lost the 5v5 goal share.
And the Oilers tied a weak offensive team. Just saying it ‘might’ not be a slam dunk
I get what you’re all saying, but the numbers posted are show how the Oilers fared compared to the other playoff teams. The Kings and Preds are similar teams, the Canucks numbers were stronger. Especially goalie
I find the stats more informative than the other info like bookies or leads with so many close games which allow for bounces to play a larger role
I hope the Oilers dominate them, it just looks like that may not be a forgone conclusion
EDM SH% is poised to decline VS VAN.
Regular Season
5v5 SH% 8.81
All SH% 10.56
2024 Playoffs
5v5 SH% 11.21
All SH% 14.19
You can call this a “PDO” SH% heater if you want. Or you can call it regression due to increased N in the population.
Contributing to this likely regression in SH% is facing Demko and DeSmith instead of Talbot and Rittich.
Now give me the thumbs down for stating the facts. I love it.
For Condors experts: how did Kesselring compare to big Niemo?
Obviously Kesselring got a big opportunity to succeed. Do we have anyone else hiding in plain site?
Coyote scouts obviously liked Kesselring better, so what else is there to really garner?
Looks like they had the Oiler d-prospects surrounded
I noticed below that John said Kemp was NHL ready. But also, beside injury, did zNiemo fall of a cliff?
Wanner will be an Oiler sooner rather than later it’s looking like
I agree he’ll be an Oiler but it might be 18 months until then….
Probably but that’s not too long. I get the feeling with his current trajectory he’s going to take someone’s job camp after next
The best players do that and he seems to have all the tools and mindset
He’d also be 23
Kesselring always had a much higher ceiling than Niemo, and I was talking about Kesselring’s ceiling for two full years before he was traded.
A much better puck mover than Nimeo – both by pass and by skate, much better offensive instincts and skills.
Niemo wasn’t even on the call-up list (and he did return to the lineup late after dealing with multiple injuries, again).
Reposting these numbers from last night.
Goals in the 6 game Van vs NSH Series.
5×5 – 9-8 NSHPP – 2-2
EN – 1-1
6v5 – 2-0 Van
I live in Vancouver and catch a ton of Canucks games. Miller is the heartbeat. Hughes is very slippery, great skater, but didn’t see much of his usual flash in NSH series. Boeser is having a career year and is more comfortable going to the net. EP40 hasn’t been the same since signing his new contract and for some reason he falls down more than any NHL player. Any centre (Blueger, Lafferty or Lindholm) with Joshua and Garland has excelled and that has been a very good third line. Zadorov is becoming a cult hero in the city.
Patrick Stefan getting reincarnated and missing a wide open empty net for Nash was the story of the series.
That was a huge moment in the series. Sissons won’t be forgetting that any time soon.
Excellent. I agree Miller is the head of the snake.
Petterson has two 5×5 goals in his last 30 games leading into the playoffs. The verbal says he is not the same player this year.
What about that Holloway kid? He sure added to the game and took nothing away.
Speed, hits, netfront battles and then some scoring! From the depths of the roster. He was often F1 on the forecheck and then F1 on the backcheck. He is a burner. And his experience at center was also helpful on breakouts. We need another like him.
Or two!
The kid is a fast learner he doesn’t seem to be out of position often. Because of his speed-physicality and his growing defensive awareness I believe this kid could be our 3-C next year and possibly better the following year.
He has more ceiling than McLeod I would want him top 6
Definitely on Holloway. McLeod on the other-hand will be hard pressed to score 20 although I see a 15 plus year career. You’ll always find a home in the N.H.L if your a roadrunner that chips in the odd goal.
For sure, and he is a good 3C because he can shut good players down. His lack of offensive instincts are less an issue 3rd line. Also his less assertive play because he can do the other things well. Get him the right wingers and that line should also produce some
Canucks had a terrific year for them. But the second round of playoffs is significantly different as we’ve found out the last couple years. We are a much defensive team than the past. The regular season results mean little now. If Skinner plays up to his level this will be over in 5. The Oilers are that much better.
There won’t be enough napalm to burn back the trolling if this goes sideways for Edmonton.
No predictions from me, I think this is going to be a tougher series than most believe.
I think about Steve and his “prices were too high” every time I read the current narrative here that Holland always overpays.
Opposite ends of the spectrum
That would be a common perspective.
Another would be that Holland recognized that you have to overpay in order to get people to stay or join a shipwreck while Tambellini refused to accept that market value is just the number all other factors being equal.
I don’t disagree that Holland has overpaid. I just think it was inevitable given the lousy job of his predecessors and his mandate to right the ship before the crew started to desert.
As our host points out in a post here today regarding Desharnais UFA’s and soon to be UFA’s have options. They don’t have to accept the reasonable number or market value because there is always a GM or two out there more desperate or with better chances of winning or better tax options etc.
In order to win in negotiations you have to have leverage. For NHL GM’s that means a stocked pipeline of replacements or the chance to win it all or better conditions for playing time etc. etc. I would say that the Oilers can now offer at least one of those benefits but my memory of the time before Holland arrived was that the team was a league wide laughing stock ruining the career of the best player in hockey because there was no supporting cast. It took time to change that perception. Signing Hyman was huge.
Today we look at the team and free agents want to come here – all other things being equal.
The cap is stretched to the limit, some of the free agents acquired are past their best before date, the Campbell contract is an unmitigated failure and the team still hasn’t won the ultimate prize but there is little doubt that it is in better shape than before Holland showed up.
I know your contention is that it could be further along and that is possible but just conjecture. I made my living the last 10 years of my work life rescuing companies that had failed due to lousy management. It isn’t as easy as some might think repairing a reputation once it has been destroyed and I think Holland has done that.
And that is no mean feat all by itself – even if he did have to overspend to accomplish it.
I agree but would say I don’t think that Holland leveraged Connor and Leon as well as he might have after the first couple of years when the rep had to be overcome. Many of his signings said Connor was a main reason they came. From things Holland has said I think he wants to pay players at the top of the range
He has spoken about ‘raises’ which is weird language for a GM. I don’t know but my take is living in Detroit for ages may have influenced that perspective. If players wanted to come perhaps the contracts could have been more team friendly, salary or term. When doing new contracts for in house guys he hasn’t been a strong negotiator it seems for anyone but RFAs
Holland has definitely made the team better. Tambellini I don’t think had the finances to spend which contributed to how he worked, although I wasn’t a fan
A other issue I would have liked Holland to get ahead of earlier for many players is walking them to UFA. Then of course the market number informs the Oiler’s position and leverage is reduced often times. It is better for the team to negotiate a year before and if no agreement trade them for assets. Or you run out of them if your team is good
This summer it might be years of developing Vinny and nothing but his play for a while to show for it, and nothing for Foegele who was desired last summer. Essentially losing him and Bear with no return. Organization depleting
Yeah, we see so many events transpiring differently. I would have done half a dozen things differently than Holland did but UFA negotiations is not one I second guess him on.
If you aren’t in the room you simply don’t know if the player will blink or not and for the first 4 years of Holland’s tenure here I would say that he couldn’t afford to lose any players because there was no pipeline and free agents weren’t lining up to come.
For sure, we’re not there. My impression is formed by the pattern and things read over time. And that if you can’t leverage Connor perhaps your aren’t a great negotiator. Which is another pattern that shows to me in his trade dealings. Keith would only go to Edmonton and he paid plus in that one as well
He made the team better so good enough
I admit I’m influenced by a terrible looking Canucks team in that series. Maybe because I think Nashville is horrible. But that would be a foolish mistake.
I think we need to return to the regular season and assume a first place Canucks team shows up. They put up a lot of goals against the oil.
Will Oilers go back to their puck possession and cycle game? I think they do, but less aggressive, fewer pinches.
Corry Perry cannot play dump in- dump out game very well. Dump and chase game, go back to Brown.
Perry can’t catch him, but somebody has to take care of Hughes. Hugh’s is banged up from Nashville already, and a speedy forecheck from Holloway/Hyman might get some big hits. And sit on him in Oilers zone. 2/3 of everything offensively goes through his stick. One winger has to play high.
Kane’s job will be JT Miller. He looks like their biggest driver, he is talented, tough, and will be after Connor/Leon. Kane can give him something to worry about. I see Kane on second line.
Henrique, Hyman, Foegele, Holloway, Carrick are going to have to battle Vancouver’s oversized defence to win some netfront battles. I think they all show up, not certain about Foegele. Foegele can bring some speed, I just think his physicality faded, maybe nursing something.
The Oilers seemed to target Doughty and I have little doubt they will target Hughes. Likely tougher to hit but well placed and targeted dump ins will help.
With the Canucks being the new kids on the block I don’t expect the Refs to call many penalties everytime Elias flops or falls down due to the breeze of a dressing room door being opened.
NHL Public Relations
Auston Matthews, Elias Pettersson and Jaccob Slavin are the three finalists for the 2023-24 Lady Byng Memorial Trophy.
Don’t like the odds to win the cup with a Lady Byng winner. Since 2000 it has only happened twice (Sakic – 2001 / Datsyuk – 2008). I will take a player willing to get into it in the playoffs over those 3.
You obviously never watched Sakic play hockey.
Ever
I also lean this way. Our team has had so many tame players over the last years I’m ready for some 80s Oilers agro again. We have been getting some, don’t stop now. It’s needed and puts another type of pressure on the bad guys and takes away a tactic that worked well against us for years
I enjoy a responsible fast offensive onslaught, wave after wave of pressure, backed up by players with lots of jam. So hard to play against, no way out
Auston is such a gentleman that he took a few games off so his teammates could see more ice time.
Not enough “snot”.
I didn’t know underwear was optional for the Lady Byng Trophy.
I thought Vinny Dehearnais has one heck of a series defending.
He made a real impact out there.
I understand why some/many think that contract number is growing, I get that, and I’ve even bumped my personal cap to around $1.75MM.
Before we get ahead of ourselves, I want to see how Vinny D. does in a playoff series against a team that brings more forecheck pressure.
I mean, the likes of Deharnais and Ceci had great series (in my opinion, despite the Nurse/Ceci numbers) but I query of a big part of that is they had less forward pressure, generally.
I hope Vinny has another great series and then a 3rd one against an even more aggresive/faster Avs or Stars team.
Good points. He was ok outside of a few games last playoffs, but I wonder if he will still be able to keep moving the puck as he took a step to reg season. A lack of time can change things a lot for slower players
The thing people never recognize is that whatever their reasonable number is (yours is quite reasonable, OP) has zero impact on reality.
Why? NHL free agency is madness. Vincent Desharnais is unique. He is unique in a way NHL general managers fancy.
If Desharnais’ agent talks to people, he will already know that (as an example) the Toronto Maple Leafs will be interested in him.
Desharnais may take a hometown discount, or he might sign with the Montreal Canadiens.
Placing a line in the sand for conversation is completely understandable and I think your number makes sense.
I’ll guess one NHL general manager is willing to pay more, and I bet there’s more than one.
I get all of that – of course.
What I think will happen (or not happen) and what I think should happen (or not happen) is, of course, irrelevant.
At the same time, we are here to discuss Oilers hockey (and related topics) and this is an important one.
I am very aware that one of the other 31 teams may offer Vinny more than what I think the Oilers can pay and what I think he is “worth”. I am also very aware that the Oilers may do the same thing.
I have personal concern of going high on a player that, at this point, remains a 3rd pairing guy and PK guy with limited upside for a term that remains when Drai and Bouch need raises that likely equal apx $10MM.
I don’t know where this will go but I think we’ll be talking about it alot over the next 6 weeks.
The post above was to give Vinny all the credit in the world for a great series but, at the same time to acknowledge that it was one series and I believe there may have been circumstances that helped him (i.e. the style of play against the Kings).
If he plays like that against the Avs over 6-7 games, well, that would be something, right?
He was full seaweed and that series played to his strengths. I understand you mean this as a compliment but I don’t think you are being completely fair with him, as each time he reaches a milestone, you keep resetting his targets.
If he does succeed as you describe, he would be a 6m defence man.
I think we know what he is, and what he is not, that’s okay. As for his cap hit, it’s irrelevant to me, the GM pays him.
Any player’s cap hit has a chain reaction on the rest of the team, pretty important to success
It’s critical, but not up to me to fret about it. There is simply too much that I dont know from my seat on the couch.( Players are assigned value based on many things that can’t be measured by me)
I like that OP said his “personal” cap target as he views his version of team building. For me, personally I’m not focused on that much.
Fair dinkum
I think Phil Kemp is ready to play regularly in the NHL
This seems accurate and this also seems like the biggest difference from year’s past.
Yup, the Oilers get scored on here and there, of course, but how often have we seen the snowball effect that was so prominant last season?
We didn’t see the 3-1 lead turn in to a 4-3 deficit in a span of 5 minutes.
We didn’t let the 4-3 goal with time left last game turn in to a 2 late goal blown lead.
Dear Zack Hyman:
You are currently on a tear in these playoffs. The record for playoff goals is the same as it’s been for decades now. There’s no reason you can’t break the record for playoff goals this season provided the team keeps winning.
If you were to do this then you will have done something no Oiler has ever done. Even the dynasty team didn’t break the playoff goal record in a single season.
All the best with your quest.
hunter
You’re going to make us look it up?
Or does everyone but me already know?
Fine, I’ll look.
Who has the most goals in a single playoff?
Goals
-courtesy of Wikipedia
Hyman has 7 goals, so he needs – let me check the math – 12 more to tie, 13 to set the record.
Seems doable in 3 more rounds.
My prediction for the Oilers vs Canucks series?
Bad news for the Canucks!
Wrong quest. There is only one vision quest for this time of year.
Draisaitl might throw his hat in that ring too.
Last year he had 7 goals in the first round v LA and then 6 goals in the first 2 games v VGK. Well on his way to the record… but then he didn’t score again.
If the Oilers go deep this year I could see Draisaitl challenging for this record.
FYI Draisaitl already has the “assists in a series” NHL record with 15 in 5 games v the Flames.
And Kane had 13 in 2022, almost all of them in the first two rounds.
Oilers have made a big whack of call-ups:
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
In addition to Jack Campbell and Philip Broberg, here’s the rest of the Oilers playoff black aces:
Lane Pederson
Adam Erne
Raphael Lavoie
Cam Dineen
Ben Gleason
Phil Kemp
Olivier Rodrigue
Where is Sam Wise?
Already on the EDM roster
Well good for Raph. was counting him out of any consideration
To my eye, the aggressive hitting to hurt was the highest in the Oilers/Kings series. Agree or ?
Vancouver brought in some beef on defence, I wonder about their level of aggression based on benefit vs power play punishment. Refs across the board seem to be calling a reasonable amount.
Agree. The calls though ‘usually’ reduce as the playoffs go on, or later in later series
Big D don’t concern me unless they are fast. Just avoid the pylons and it takes anything that they have away. Skate them out of the game and exploit their skating, don’t let them get a hit on you
It was Kings who entered the playoffs as the defensive specialists.
First few games of all series were much more open, exciting, reasonable scoring games.
Then the Oilers went full defensive hockey to take out the Kings
Copied by Toronto who went defensive to tie the series. Similar with Dallas.
And finally in Vancouver they went defensive to win out. Their style in game 1 completely different than game 6.
I have not watched eastern conference but it does seem like shift to boring, and to defence has been effective.
I wanted seven for that series but, oh well, at least we know now. At least the coaching staff knows now and can prepare for a specific opponent.
There are some accounts Demko is close but others than he’s not. I doubt we see him any time in this series, in particular early.
Arturs Silovs…… I know he had a really good 2 games but, Arturs Silovs is not someone I imagine is going to steal a series against the offence that is the Edmonton Oilers.
That Pred/Canucks series was something else – that was LOW EVENT hockey, my goodness. We know the Oilers can also play a low event game a defensively structure a team to a win but I don’t imagine the Canucks and Alex Edler are going to lock down the Oilers offence.
The Canucks and Knights/Stars are in for a world of difference when they face the offence of the Oiler and Avs.
Alex Edler? Making a unforeseen comeback is he?
Oooops, by Alex Edler, I mean, Tyler Myers…..
I think Dallas is fine, they had more goals than we did and one less at 5v5
I don’t see it as teams try to play a defensive style per se. It’s always the goal to play well defensively, especially playoffs. What we have seen from the longer series is that when teams focus on not making mistakes they aren’t able to create offense, so far
When the hockey is low event, it means that teams are not finding ways to break through the defensive system in the O zone. Or do what is necessary to beat a goalie playing well. There are strategies including getting in the goalies face physically and verbally, and contact, for the dark side of the game. Screens, deflections and seam plays for the light side
The Oilers broke LA’s NZ trap, but had trouble creating enough to score more as it went on. It seems to be the theme of the playoffs so far, all about the PP. I don’t want them to have to rely on the PP, it’s a risky way to go, keep getting better 5v5 as it goes along. Let the PP be the hammer
I hope we see against the Dys that they are finding ways to create more HDSC at evens and finish them. The Dys will try to lock it down for sure, don’t let them, don’t let them think that they have a chance
Those “playing not to lose” games were just awful.
flip the puck out of your zone, try to dump it into the other zone. Chase. Repeat.
God it was awful and I hope the Oilers shrug that off. It worked but it’s not their game.
It definitely won’t work against better teams. The Oilers still make too many key mistakes to stay there, even if they are better than before. And it’s top 6 and top 4 so the players they are against can make them pay. Play in the O zone
I don’t understand the use of plural.
I certainly didn’t see that in game 5.
Do you consider the third period of game 5 that type of game? I certainly don’t. The team was “defend first” but they took every opportunity to break the puck out with control and they pressure up ice when available. They created way more scoring chances in that third period than LA, to my eye.
Ahh, having at least two chances for the dys fans to trash their own town… Music!
Like LT, I am not worried about this team. I do know that if Vancouver play against us like they did against the preds, it’s going to be a short series.
I have heard that a few times already from folks, too funny. Man, the patchouli makes them lose their heads
Watched the game last night and not sure what to think of the Canucks. Credit to them, they looked a lot more hungry and desperate to win than the Preds did, who I thought looked content to just be there.
That said, Canucks continually made horrible turnovers when breaking out of their zone. I counted five give aways they gift wrapped to the Preds just in the third period, and they’re really lucky the Preds forwards simply did not have the firepower to convert on those chances. In the 2nd, Hughes was caught out there for easily a 2+ minute shift where the Preds had them buried in their own zone. Again, the Preds just didn’t have the fire power or frankly the cycle ability to convert on the opportunity.
That, and I’m not sure what to make of Silovs. Played a pretty strong and confident game for a rookie 3rd string tendy.
It’ll be sure interesting to see the result of this series. I’d like to think the Oilers will match up well, and you hope they’re able to light them up, bur Vancouver has been sneaky good against the Oil for the past number of years, even when the Oil are the better team on paper.
Just really hope they win. The better half is a Canucks fan, so if I’m not posting, it’s probably because I’m out sleeping in the garage.
Giddy-up!
Start building the man cave, and the garage is much warmer in the spring!
If the Oilers can’t beat the Dys with their third string goalie in net, we don’t deserve the Cup.
Well they lost to VGK’s third-stringer last year at this stage.
This series is a coin-toss
Two headed coin. I call heads for an Oilers win. 🪙
For sure but I had thought (maybe mistakenly!) Demko carried a heavy load for them
My daughter got into badminton in Grade 7 this year. She did well, went to cities. Her coach brought the team to go play some seniors. Despite all the energy that junior high kids can bring, the seniors usually won handily, barely having to move. They know the game, they know where the birdie is going.
The Oilers aren’t quite at Old Tai Chi Master level, but they’re no longer the Scramble Kids.
I love badminton. When you say seniors, I immediately assumed senior citizens. But then it dawned on me, are you referring to high school kids?
Anyway, it is quite refreshing to hear the phrase “mature game” and the Oilers in the same sentence. It’s one thing for McDavid to say they want to play a mature game but it’s another to behold the run and gun Oilers actually able to consistently backcheck, keep their opponents to the outside in the Oiler zone, chip and chase in the attacking zone, and wait to strike. Sure, they’re not perfect, but I clench my butt cheeks much less watching this team play a mature game. Having McDavid and Leon on separate lines also minimizes butt clenching, knowing there’s a superstar center on the ice so frequently. Add to that the confidence I have in the 3 Oiler D pairs, it’s been such a turnaround this year in watching this team play sound hockey.
Senior citizens yup!
That’s cool. Score for the senior citizens! I’m not a senior but it’s cool to see them beating energetic youth with their experience and maturity.
Good for her. Love badminton, a sport that one can play into one’s older years. Agree, experience, maturity usually trumps that newly minted energy of youth.
As our beloved host stated well, this year’s OIlers are a more mature, experienced, battled hardened team. Canucks will have their moments, puck luck is a thing but the Oilers just look like Destiny this year.
You should see the young ones trying to beat seniors at pickleball.
The Vancouver fans can chant “F**k McDavid” all they want. We are professionals and we take the high road to victory. And victory it will be.
They can’t as that is not inclusive enough for the City of Vancouver. They would have to chant “F**k Everyone”.
I’m actually quite happy Dallas Vegas and then Colorado get to beat the crap out of themselves.
I got to say after the first round Vancouver is by far the weakest team left. Got to hammer Boeser and you’re in the clear
As you might expect, Moneypuck has updated odds this morning.
Make 3rd Round
COL 54.1
EDM 50.4
VAN 49.6
DAL 28.4
VGK 17.6
It seems they see a coin flip between the Oilers and Canucks and the Avalanche crushing either the Stars or Golden Knights.
Fanduel Sprortsbook: Oilers -240 to beat the Canucks!
Seems about right but remember betting odds are based on bettor sentiment not analysis.
Dom’s model still has the Oilers as cup favourites.
I wouldn’t forget about Hughes and Miller. After that the bottom 6 has to keep up with Garland and Blueger and their golden
And don’t let the Russian take your head off