Ziggy ran all the numbers, looked at them from every angle, yawned, slept for a time and talked to the rabbits in the backyard. Oilers in seven.
The Oilers played the Stars three times during the 2023-24 season; one was early, when Edmonton was bebothered, one was at the end when Edmonton couldn’t be bothered. The middle one? Interesting.
The Oilers won that game, 4-3 in overtime. Goaltender Calvin Pickard stopped 24 of 27 (.889) versus Dallas stopper Jake Oettinger (20 of 24 saves, .833). I do believe we’ll see save percentages in the .800’s during this series. The teams love to wheel, have all kinds of speed and coverage gaps develop because it’s a game of mistakes even at the highest levels of competition.
For me, I think the team that does enough at five-on-five to keep the puck miles from its net will win the day. Both power plays will be dynamite, both teams have players who can score 10+ points in this series.
The gap in goaltending is getting lots of play, and that may well be the difference in this series. For me, I look at the Oilers offense and see a team that can take advantage of any team on the power play, and has at least a couple of potent five-on-five lines. The key to winning, from my perspective, will be the third and fourth lines sawing off Dallas’ depth lines at five-on-five. During this year’s playoffs, Edmonton is 4-8 goals when the Glimmer Twins are at rest. That’s going to need a fix.
Adam Henrique could be that fix, or Ryan McLeod (1-4) could regress or get benched. I think the Oilers are less without him and there’s no guarantee that McLeod will take the minuses with him to the pressbox, despite how convenient that outcome would be to the organization.
I think the keys to winning involve Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard staying in the range of Jake Oettinger, Connor McDavid playing his healthy, brilliant game every night, Kris Knoblauch’s courage and innovation, and luck.
I think Game 1 in this series is important for the Oilers. It’s important for the team to play a sound game, as tight defensively as possible, and for those who have chaos in their game avoid taking the roundabout on the way to work. The shortest distance between two points is the law of Toyland, it’s not just some stupid rule.
We will see two-on-one and breakaway chances at both ends. I predict at least one game with 9+ goals and someone with a microphone saying “last goal wins” and it’ll be true.
The good news for the winner: The eastern conference series is going to leave the winner a shrunken lump of humanity. Wow that series is a monster.
Oilers in 7, with a 2-1 edge in overtime goals.
Obvious heroes: The Glimmer Twins and Evan Bouchard.
Obscure heroes: Mattias Janmark and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we have a fantastic show for you. Bagged Milk will lay out Game 1 and what may come, and HHOF defenseman and former Oilers defenseman, coach and GM Kevin Lowe will appear to give us his view of the Oilers this spring and the series ahead. You can reach me at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section or on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. Question: Would you like to see an updated 2024 Lowetide draft list later this week?
Rangers/Panthers is gonna be nasty the rest of the way
i put 500 on the oil last night easy double up
As of 24.5.24 Oilers close 2nd favourites for the cup; who says that wasn’t a must win game?
Picture instead Dallas taking it and instead of enjoying this remarkable team which when using the playoff leaderboard closely follows, compares or beats most of the Dynasty records for playoffs lololol
Please Vote! Is this a Dynasty suddenly about to crush their way to the Cup??
1 Draisaitl – 9-16 25
2 McDavid- 3-20 23
3 Bouchard- 5-16 21
4 RNH- 4-13 17
5 TKachook(praying for a Stars final because Evander Kane doesn’t play for them)
6 Hyman- 12-3 15
TSN headline before yesterday: “Could Tanev Prove to Be McDavid’s Worst Nightmare??”
LOL who was -3?
Why on earth wouldn’t one expect McDavid to be Tanev’s worst nightmare?
I know the Oilers pissed in Toronto’s cereal throughout the 1980s, but I’m trying to understand what they need to do to be taken seriously. Probably there is nothing. Who out there with a microphone chose Edmonton to take this series? Best team in the NHL since November, best special teams by far, best two players, top 4 scorers in the playoffs and that doesn even include the top goal scorer who is also an Oiler. Drop this team in Indianapolis or Louisville and Canadian media would fawwwwwwwwn over this dynamic and exciting hockey team.
We don’t need to share this run with Canada if we don’t want to, just FYI.
McDavid has faced Tanev often when he was a Flame, which shows there isn’t much thought to that headline.
I did not expect the game to be played like it was last night.
I know it was just one game, and in the playoffs the prior game means little to how the next game is played, but I didn’t find Dallas dangerous at all without Hintz.
I know we walk about Tanev being on the ice for 3 goals against but Miro H. was absolutely caved all night long – to a tune of 16% expected goals (and he only played 4 min against McDavid – it was he 2nd line and then bottom six he faced).
Its going to be a curious series in Oilerland. Godot might find himself in an existential crisis once he realizes how overrated Heiskanen is and how criminally underrated our boy Bouchard is.
If things break just right Heiskanen might just have himself a very fine Morgan Reilly-esque career. Nothing to sneeze at but the breathless chatter from Cuthbert and Craig, nevermind our own Mr. Staples over at the CoH, would have left one thinking you were getting the 2nd coming of Lindstrom.
I stand by Wednesday’s pre scout
After some casual pre-scouting today here are some thoughts.
1) If you strongly dislike “off the glass and out,” just wait till you see Tanev and Lindell. Also wait until you see them try to make headman passes under any semblance of pressure.
2) Heiskanen/Harley are very vulnerable to cycles. This is a weird pairing frankly. They don’t really compliment each other. Its like putting Bouchard with Vinny.
3) Dallas will attempt to defend the zone entry aggressively when Tanev and Heiskanen are on the ice but they end up chasing back a fair bit. Tanev is good positionally but slower than molasses on retrievals.
4) As noted below Dallas d play very aggressive and they will get caught on player rotations. The Oilers have more natural attackers – McD, Drai, Hyman, Kane and Foegele than Colorado and may be able to exploit this.
David Staples doesn’t watch non-Oiler games, by his own admission.
Oh I know. But sometimes 20% of the podcasts are spent fawning over players he doesn’t watch like Makar or Heiskanen. I find it interesting that such strong opinions come purely from second hand sources is all.
Heiskanen has been to the final two once, and the final four three times in his career. How many times has Morgan Reilly done that?
Dallas has lost to three eventual Cup winners those three times….
And Dan Carcilo has won two cups while Connor McDavid hasn’t won any. Ergo, Dan Carcilo > Connor McDavid.
I would never suggest the Dubas/Shanahan combo are better team builders than Nill. That’s the story of Dallas’ playoff success. Its a team game.
As for my comparison think of it this way. Reilly got undressed and spun around by McDavid a few years back. Last night Miro got worked by Foegele. Two dmen who can put up points, but clearly better off as 2nd pairing hidden away from Elite Comp.
https://youtu.be/Gxd23UVID7k?si=9rAOOpk2rkHXtr5e
https://x.com/KrazyKanook/status/1793855450234143038
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
Damn, there goes my Tulsky hopes for this summer. One would assume he gets the big chair finally there now.
https://x.com/bcurlock/status/1793843478939722026
Would have been satisfied with an unlucky OT Game 1 Loss because they did everything right.
Really need Foegele and McLeod to figure it out though.
Also I’ll hopefully remember tomorrow (a few pops to calm the nerves) but I gotta say I’ve been harsh on Nuge many times over the years and even as recently as the Kings series but he has brought it this playoffs.
Seguin whining like a little b1tch about how they deserved to win and the league gave the Oilers extra rest. Really tired of the constant whining in pro sports these days, you suck Seguin, fax no printer as the kids say. GTFOH.
That’s not even factoring in the extra rest all the non-pk guys got during the game. Hardly fair. /s
Anybody else think Derek Ryan is going to be an amazing coach someday. Even a jack adams coach in edmonton. I can dream.
Hardly any physical gifts. Not fast. Marginally strong. Not a great shot.
Yet here he is. A dependable cog on a great team, full of superstars, in the playoffs.
Big Brain, determination and an iron will to win against bigger, stronger, more gifted players are his super powers. He sees the game at a slower speed than most and makes the right play 95% of the time.
I think he’s gonna make more money as a head coach than as a player, when it’s all said and done.
McDavid = Rolex hockey
Flash n’ dash and looks gorgeous doin it
Ryan = Timex hockey
Takes a lickin and keeps on tickin…
How can you not cheer for that heart?
Damn. Couldn’t have said it better myself. But you failed to mention his fashion sense, that’s a guy who plans on being a coach someday, in addition to all the intangibles you mentioned.
I don’t want him to leave the club. Finish his career as a player here. Then slide back a seat and into the coaching staff.
As a cup champion of course
Dimitri Filipovic
@DimFilipovic
Evan Bouchard tonight:
•31:01 TOI
•Primary assist on the winner
•In the 28:49 he played at 5v5, shots were 18-8, high danger chances were 7-0, and goals were 3-0 Oilers
9:27 PM · May 23, 2024
·
It’s unreal.
He had an enormous game and maybe moreso in his own end than the other.
I think there was about ten seconds to go in Connor’s double minor and he wasted a Star attacker along the boards… nowhere near the puck, but the guy is lying on the ice and I had a flashback to the 90s and thought to myself, oh so Boosh is Derian Hatcher now.
lol
When we played them back in them there dark days throughout the entirety of third periods we rarely had five skaters n their feet in the OZone due to egregious interference never called.
My favourite karma payback this game was that Bouchard hit.
Wasn’t there a high danger chance on his giveaway in front of Skinner in the 2nd period?
Stats never lie, ever.
Did you also see all the times he bailed out Ekholm tonight?
You should check out the whole season numbers. Sorta breathtaking.
94-23-80-102, +47
Yeah but Tanev, so..
I hope one day he can be as good as Rafferty… but I’m probably dreaming 😉
What a defensive performance from the team and Skinner.
2 mis cues: the obvious Kulak.
The other for me was Vinny passing the puck to no one in the d-zone instead of just getting it out. 8 seconds later Seguin had another gimme.
Otherwise Dal was not getting much, best part is the Oilers can repeat this & shut them down again.
Gotta pay whatever it takes to keep Bouchard. Noting this because I saw a poster here say you trade him for a king’s ransom. What a special talent this guy is…
This time last year everyone shat on me for pushing to get his signature on an 8 x 6-7M. If only.
There’s more variables at play there than just the player
When Life hands you Glimmers you lock them down early and at value. Everything else you can figure out after the fact.
He was never going to sign for $7 million.
At the time people were still talking high six. Apart from that playoffs his resume was thin and his defensive prowess in question. I think 7 long – 6, or 7, or 8 – was in the cards.
Post-Rags, Zubov used to give me fits and the fear (loved him as a player). I don’t think today anyone in the league could scare me more than Bouch teeing up in the zone against my team. It is so nice not having to be afraid of him, all of the time. Please sign him the rest of his life.
Our zubov also had a couple hatcher moments that made me think I was supposed to yell at my TV.
He reminds me of OG Weber where that shot would come down on you like The Hammer of Thor
I’m loving the love for Derek Ryan on this panel
Bouchard +3
Tanev -3
Looking good !
https://x.com/AdamsOnHockey/status/1793859017468785149
video in reply.
Our resident under-bridge-dweller and Tanev fanboy quite clearly makes a yearly bet: one particular team out of 32 WON’T win it all. It’s a good bet given how hard it is to go all the way. I wonder if he could do something for us all here if he’s wrong this year. Something on camera. Something we’d enjoy.
I have a feeling I don’t live too far away. I can run over whatever supplies needed for the shoot!
He has joined the majority of Vancouverians marching downtown with lit candles in their 2020 Tanev jerseys, mourning this loss.
Oilers beating the Stars in OT…
Going up 1-0 in a series that promises to tax the stoutest of hearts…
McDavid, even while injured manages to figure out ways to beat the opposition. 7 more wins and the cup is ours lol
Mark Messier Bruin Inn fan
Bruin Inn. There’s a place I haven’t thought about in some while.
Back in the day, staunchly Montreal Canadien territory.
Had no idea. By the time I was in high school it was briefly a strip joint.
Not satisfied with this in the least, but I believe this is now officially the best Oilers team since 2006 (ie – they won a game in the conference final).
That said, stay greedy boys.
KK officially passed Woody tonight in coaching achievement. He deserves some kudos.
Mr Brown menace on the forecheck tonight.
Lots of excellent back checking.
Kulak flub, but wow what a difference overall this game.
My three unsung stars making music this game are Nuge, Kane and Brown.
Seconded, Thirded, and Fourthed.
Also thought Holloway was very good tonight.
I forgot when it was but that backcheck by Brown, tying up a star player in the danger zone without taking a penalty with these refs was unreal.
Still flabbergasted that Bouch was able to corral that puck, see Connor, and slides it over perfectly for one of the easier deflections for him.
Off the ice, he looks barely awake. On the ice, he’s a savant.
Just incredible that we have Connor, Drai, Bouch, Nuge, Hyman and Skinner all on our team!!!
killer.
What the hell happened to Ekholm?!!!!!!!
And Kane. And Nurse
I love the whole team!!! But like Mushed said, those guys are Killers. Stone cold. Look you right in the eye them take your head clean off…
Playoff Scoring Leaders:
Drai 25
Davo 23
Bouch 21
RNH 17
Chuck 16
Hyman 15
Goals
Hyman 12
Drai and Val 9
Connor is so much more relaxed in front of the camera now
I really, really want to see him hoist a cup because you know he’s holding everything back, all the time, every time, until he does.
That was the kind of game where even if the Oilers lost, the way they played had me feeling they could take the series.
Team looked surprisingly calm, cool and collected the whole game.
I agree, but feel this W will be important.
They looked battle hardened. Found a game that works against most teams in game 6/7. The only thing making these games close is the UN-F-ING-BELIEVABLE 10 bell turnovers. Allowing teams to get back in. Clean that up and it’s curtains.
That’s what I was hoping for. Most games shouldn’t have been close so far
Surprised the Refs didn’t double check Knoblauch’s line up card and try to give em a bench minor for not putting a dash in Nuge’s name.
Embarrassing display and as per usual we won’t hear a single peep from the media.
https://x.com/swpoilersfan/status/1793865357092098265?t=IPJePyvURxgRbF5pBYUfng&s=19
That was easily the best game they’ve played out of the last three.
There’s soft underbelly to be found with this Dallas team. Their defense has issues.
Simpson was praising the Dallas “flip it out,” strategy. Silly. Craig doesn’t understand how the Oilers play. That won’t work going forward. Dmen have figured out the punt distances. Dallas will get hemmed in over and over and over again if they try it.
Stu was so calm, so confident and in control all night. It was beautiful to see
Simpson is a pretty boy dumb jock. He’s an embarrassment to Canadian hockey broadcasting.
Oh you mean the Toronto Maple Leafs broadcasting team should stick to the Eastern Conference. When will us Westerners get our own broadcast team that really understands us!
Simpson was a fantastic Oiler. Please stfu lol
Who would you have rather had… Coffey or Simpson?
So no, I will not stfu
They’re so complimentary of the Oilers on TNT, such a better product. Far more of a celebration of the game and each team. Plus Gretz getting all the love.
Tonights game was the opposite of what the pundits were expecting.
Im almost insulted at how skeptical everyone but Bieksa was with the Oilers.
But it’s par for the course and it’s fun to be the contrarian fans
How do you get TNT? I’m seriously tired of the SN play by play and their lack of even the slightest bit of homerism for the most Canadian team in the Conference Final
I use sportsurge and streameast with my gaming tower wired into the big screen. I have cable but couldn’t be bothered with sportsnets offering anymore. Gretz, Biz, Anson, Henry, the host in the middle, great mix, both teams getting love even when said person didn’t pick them before hand. Panel was 3-2 picking the Oilers to win the series before the game, Biz and Anson picking Dallas in 6. Anson did say Oilers in 7 if they were to do it, but he picked Dallas first.
American play-by-play has improved immensely since the ‘ol Doc-dayz. The TNT guy is great + Ferraro is a gem.
Why can’t we have nice things? Miller & Mike Johnson are off in Czechia doing the WCs.. they would be awesome in this series.
It’s amazing how fast oilers look without the 6’5″ anchors holding onto them at all times. If it weren’t for one bad gaffe leading to the 2-1 goal and the refs doing everything they could to manage the game, that was dominance start to finish from the oilers
This series looks to actually be able to showcase skill.
Hated every second of the Van series – just ugly hockey
What a game! Great that McDavid gets the winner after being foiled in OT1.
My game star: Stuart Skinner and his .939
Spare a thought for the 19 Lady Byng nominees on the Stars team.
👆🏻 👌🏻
What a great game! Way better than anything we’ve seen in the first 2 rounds.
Both teams were well coached to meet each others strategies
I thought the Oilers’ breakouts were generally great and Dallas didn’t really have a lot of forecheck success. Meaning as long as our D have their heads on a swivel and watch the Dallas forwards flying the zone, they can neutralize their attack.
We beat Otter, we beat Tanev, and the PP disadvantages (aka the refs)
Skinner. Wow, super steady! No spectacular saves needed because of great positioning and not over reacting.
So much to like. I wish the bottom 6 weren’t so snake bitten (add in Kaner and Holloway tonight missing some great chances)
I know Hintz is a great player, but Henrique coming back will also do wonders for our depth and hopefully they come back at similar times
Great Review. I agree 99%
DeBoer will try to counterpunch. He’s a master tactician but KK is also no slouch. Oilers need to adjust and cover that deep flip out jailbreak to their forward waiting at the Oilers blue line. They were trying to stretch out the D formation, like a QB throwing a few long early to get the D thinking.
On the bottom 6 being snake bitten: I think they just don’t shoot enough. Granted, they’re playing the perimeter and brazen shots ring the boards and could create a chance the other way. Still, skill takes chances (Bouch’s whip pass would have fired out of the zone hard had McD missed it).
Dallas 5-1 PPs sure stands in the face of referees not wanting to get involved. Got 3 5on5 goals tonight. Taney minus-2.
Music!
Oh man, what a game, what a night
LET’S GOOOOOO!!!!!
WOOOOOOOOOT!!!!
WHAT. A. GAME.
Damn, if this team can play like this, good things will happen!
Best I have seen the Oilers in almost 20 years. Wild. Love that effort!
Chris Tanev on the ice for all 3 goals against.
Millions of western Canadians will be disappointed to hear this
Paulie on a roll tonight
BC is on flood alert from the tears!
Dodged a bullet!! 🤣
woot woot woot!
I spy with my little eye! Wait is that Tanev? On the ice for another 5v5 goal against.
Good gord sometimes I absolutely heart this blog comment section. 😂❤️
Bowness’ insights are great… but he needs a new phrase other than “it’s the details” 😂
Imagine being a Dallas fan just finished grabbing another beer and heading back to their seat and McDavid crushes your soul like that before you even sit back down.
LOVE IT!!!
As an oilers fan with half a beer left to go, I’m feeling pretty chuffed right now
HOCKEY BONER 🚨
[clap clap clap clap clap]
Play LaBamba, baby!
Tell me you don’t love Man Nuge even more than Baby Nuge
This. He is having a helluva playoffs. A couple huge back checks.
La Bamba
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWv-9AIW7eE
Home ice advantage, baby!
Nuge never gave up! That’s why we had that chance!!! Connor and Bouch show up when we need them the most and Skinner was unbelievable!!!
Watching Bouchard climb the NHL D ranks in real time and in the playoffs is a hell of a thing.
He showed us last year.
Lots and lots of people didn’t want to believe it.
It is a whole other level now though. Top 10 for sure. He rounded out the rough edges and can play forever. Clubhouse leader for the Conn Smythe right now. Even over Leon the Playoff Hero.
He should honestly win the Conn Smyth at this point
Outplay, outshot, outscored Dallas, on the road, while killing off 5 powerplays and only having one PP (split by the period end).
Yeah like I said below, the Stars scare me a lot less after seeing the 2nd and 3rd periods, and less again now we came away with the deserved victory.
We were the better team up and down the ice tonight.
I think Oil can make them look real ordinary. If that is they can stop shooting themselves in the foot
Heyyyy… didn’t they shoot us in the foot? 😉
Something needs to be said about the 5-1 penalty discrepancy in a even played game
The penalties were insane.
Surely that can’t continue (not confident, but I hope).
Especially when the only Stars penalty was when they obviously had 7 skaters on the ice!
It’s obvious McDavid is labouring something his heavy shot is missing along with one-timers from his game. This is not all bad as I believe the team is rallying around that he’s human and he needs help dragging this team over the finish line.
It looks like both teams are pretty ready for this series. Curious to see if Dallas can make any significant adjustments after game 1.
Maybe they’ll find some way to skate faster.
but I doubt it.
😉
McDavid didn’t want the Joseph save on Joe Nieuwendyk to haunt him. What a win.
Statement game from Stu.
So proud, so happy
Thank gawd.
They won and showed they are the better team.
3 more of those. And they didn’t even play their best. Closer – but they have more.