This is the 1992-93 Cape Breton Oilers championship team. It’s the only minor-league championship in organizational history. The Condors pandemic win doesn’t count, sad to say. Back then, the Oilers had a pile of guys who earned a recall but Glen Sather was already gathering impact youth from the draft and trades. As is often the case, the checkers (Kirk Maltby) had NHL careers, and the skilled men who learned the two-way game (Shaun Van Allen) also found their way to an NHL career. Shjon Podein, not listed here, was for me the most interesting player in the group. He had an NHL career.
When we look at minor league talent, it’s easy to spot the skill but the true skill guys don’t see the AHL, the plane they’re on goes right to the NHL. We’re about to see that, I believe, with Matthew Savoie.
AHL AT 20
A few years ago, I wrote about Evan Bouchard and Tyler Benson delivering exceptional 20-year old seasons in the AHL. Bouchard should have been in the NHL, but the point Benson’s season makes is where I want to go today.
The verbal at the time: Benson was coming off injury and the Oilers wanted him to play a full season in the minors to prove he could stay healthy. The truth is that NHL teams rush their Leon Draisaitl’s and Ryan Smyth’s to the NHL and there are reasons to keep the Benson’s of the world in the AHL.
I write about this all the time (Farm Workers) but the kids on the farm in 2023-24 who are the real heroes (the new Pisani, the next Vincent Desharnais) are not found at the top of the team scoring ranks.
If there are NHL futures in Bakersfield, if there is another generation of Maltby, Podein types, their names are Max Wanner, Phil Kemp, Jayden Grubbe.
If Raphael Lavoie is going to make it, he’ll get there via the Shaun Van Allen exit. By that I mean sanding all of the mistakes out of his game, suppressing his natural offensive instincts, cheating for defense and doing it reliably. Over and over again.
The AHL is a development league for checkers. Same as it ever was. Same as it was.
Matthew Savoie is not an AHL player. I’m pretty sure.
Today on the Lowdown, we’ll talk about the next general manager of the Edmonton Oilers. Who is it? I have a list. Plus, oh those Elks. Jason Gregor will join us to talk about the Oilers management situation and the Elks latest loss, plus Canada at the Copa. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Nine bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2024-25 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5636769/2024/07/15/oilers-predictions-2024-25/
Kings sign Quinton Byfield…$6.25 million X 5.
Another team locking up their young stars early.
Might be a great bargain if he keeps developing into a #1C.
Finally some important news here.
In other news, Kuznetsov has apparently left Carolina for Russia. Rough start for Tulsky.
Another team allowing their young RFAs to become UFA at the earliest possible moment. 👌
He signed for a deal that walks him straight to UFA at age 26. Seems like he learned all the best things from PLD.
A deal that works well for both the team and player.
LA gets him for the prime of his career at a discount and has options to manage his aging curve without paying him well into his mid 30’s.
Very similar to the Quinn Hughes contract in Vancouver albeit 1 year shorter.
Lol the aging curves seem to have a lot of variance whenever it suits your narrative.
Blake didn’t get a single UFA year. He’ll be just entering his prime years when the contract expires, and the Kings will need to pay him monster dollars for all of his UFA years to retain him.
What? Do you honestly think that noone will see the dishonesty of this post?
A max term deal would take him to 30.
What is this “avoiding paying him well in to his mid-30s” nonsense?
Good Grief!
I think they bought one UFA year.
Yes you’re right – he’ll have played 8 seasons by the end of his contract.
Still, to get his client to UFA at age 26 is a win for Dave Gagner.
“If wishes were fishes, we would all cast nets.”
Source: J.R.R. Tolkein, The Hobbit.
Otherwise, sounds like the deal of the century!
If wishes were horses, we’d all be having horse meat tonight.
AND IF ONLY BOOGER RAFFERTY WIN THE NORRIS AS YOU, i BELIEVE, SAID BOOK IT!!
The best scenario for a team is to sign players until 32-33 and have a season left to deal them if that’s the best choice. Because then you get max return and keep the system going. Leon coming up at 29 or 30 is the worst case scenario. Too early to deal, likely buying a lot of probable decline. Connor you never trade
Does anyone think Justin Schultz would sign for $1,000,000? Did I see somewhere that he actually had decent numbers last season on a not very good team with middle pair minutes?
I think he would sign. I don’t think he would be offered that by the Oilers – don’t see any reason to add him – he only treaded water against Grits last season – got killed by elites (in the 22% TOI he played against them) and mids.
Would prefer Stecher who is a league min.
Tne Oilers need a defender(preferably complete two way) who can also PK. Bouchard gets all the minutes where Schultz would contribute.
There’s a lot of firepower on this team. Just for fun, here are the highest goals in a season by each player:
McDavid – 64
Draisaitl – 55
Hyman – 54
Perry – 50
Skinner – 40
Nugent-Hopkins – 37
Arvidsson – 34
Kane – 30
Henrique – 30
Brown – 21
Janmark – 19
Ryan – 15
Holloway – 6
Bouchard – 19
Nurse – 16
Ekholm – 11
Ceci – 10
Kulak – 6
Stecher – 5
Broberg – 1
In order of possible lines:
McDavid – 64
Hyman – 54
Nugent-Hopkins – 37
Skinner – 40
Draisaitl – 55
Arvidsson – 34
Kane – 30
Holloway – 6
Perry – 50
Henrique – 30
Brown – 21
Janmark – 19
Ryan – 15
Wow, that would be 523 goals in a year if they peaked at the same time… dare to dream! (If my math is correct)
For all the glee over Savoie and angst over Bourgault today, it’s maybe interesting to revisit their CHL scoring rates:
Savoie
Draft yr 1.38 pts/game
Draft +1 1.53 pts/game
Draft +2 2.09 pts/game
Bourgault
Draft yr 1.38 pts/game
Draft +1 1.74 pts/game
Draft +2 0.55 pts/game (AHL)
One could consider age a factor, but Bourgault was only 2 months (and 10 days) older than Savoie in their respective years.
I suppose this could be a cautionary tale about Savoie. For me it’s more a reminder of how strong the math was on Bourgault, even if many don’t remember or don’t care to.
The WHL was a harder league to score in than the Q – I believe that NHL equivalencies account for that, but I’m not sure what the correction factor is.
I think the gap has closed but are numbers not often inflated in the Q?
I guess not much any more, as you alluded to.
Savoie
Draft yr NHLe 34 (WHL)
Draft +1 NHLe 38 (WHL)
Draft +2 NHLe 52 (WHL)
Bourgault
Draft yr NHLe 32 (QMJHL)
Draft +1 NHLe 41 (QMJHL)
Draft +2 NHLe 22 (AHL)
Nothing to choose between their draft and draft +1 seasons (and basically everyone has a sharp drop on turning pro).
Well, if you were going to do it, then I would not have gone down this rabbit hole, lol. I went through this exercise and included the playoff numbers, but I also want to some things out.
Savoie
Draft yr NHLe 34 (WHL)
Draft+1 NHLe 38 (WHL)
Draft+2 NHLe 40 (WHL)
Bourgault
Draft yr NHLe 30 (QMJHL)
Draft+1 NHLe 38 (QMJHL)
Draft+2 NHLe 21 (AHL)
Draft+3 NHLe 14 (AHL)
Savoie’s junior career was very unusual in that he had no stability when it came to location and linemates, other than in his Draft yr and his Draft yr+1.
Mind you he did have some elite linemates in his most productive seasons in the WHL, but there is something to be said for stability and certainty, hopefully Savoie gets 2 solid, healthy season in, in Bakersfield.
In Shawinigan, XB had Maverik Bourque as a consistent linemate for 4 years. Bourque was drafted 1 year earlier, here are MB’s numbers:
Bourque
Draft+1 NHLe 31 (QMJHL)
Draft+1 NHLe 46 (QMJHL)
Draft+2 NHLe 29 (AHL)
Draft+3 NHLe 45
Savoie’s number certainly got a boost from great linemates, but I’d argue that Bourgault was zoomed by the older Bourque. I am very surprised that the Bourg didn’t land in Texas.
On the trade, Jarventie was a favourite of mine that draft year, and was hoping somehow the Oilers could draft him. Although I had high expectations for Brendan Brisson and hoped and prayed that Jack Finley would be available at the 100th pick, which turned out to be Carter Savoie.
Not sure about the Savoie/stability thing. He played for the Winnipeg ice for his full draft and draft +1 seasons, then split draft +2 between 2 WHL teams, NHL and AHL. Stable team (can’t speak to linemates) for 2 seasons though.
And I don’t agree Bourgault was ‘carried’ by Bourque.
In Bourgault’s draft and draft +1 seasons, with Bourque almost 10 months older, the two players scored:
20-21 (34 game season)
MB 28 19-24-43
XB 29 20-20-40
21-22 (68 game season)
MB 31 20-48-68
XB 43 36-39-75
Similar numbers in 20-21. Bourque had better rates in 21-22, but both players missed a ton of games. IIRC their injuries didn’t coincide so Bourgault did most of his scoring without Bourque.
And Bourgault was the better goal scorer, and most of a year younger.
At the time, that is exactly what I thought, not trying to be argumentative, just trying to see things as they are.
In his first 2 junior seasons Savoie played for 4 different teams in 4 different leagues. In his 3rd & 4th he played on a stacked Winnipeg club.
In his final Junior season he played on 2 new WHL teams after playing for Buffalo and Rochester. That’s 6 different leagues and really 9 different teams (I counted the Ice twice due to the 1 yr gap) in 5 seasons. That’s a lot. I think he will do incredible things.
And for the record, Bourgault vs Savoie is a great comparison, I sincerely appreciate the time and effort you put into this.
This is why you should not draft from the Q
I think you are comparing apples to oranges.
Bourgaults draft season should be compared to Savoies draft plus one season. That would be comparing them based on birth year, which is a far better comparison.
Did you even reading my post?
By draft year Bourgault was 2 months and 10 days older than Savoie.
You’re suggesting it’s better to compare seasons where Savoie was 9 months and 20 days older than Bourgault.
Agree – the age gap is not that great. It’s an astute comparison.
Hopefully Savoie blows the doors off when he gets to the AHL. He’s either going to be a great player for us … or a good chip at the deadline … depending on how well he produces in the AHL.
The wild cards are what are the things in the way other than skill (math) that stop young players
Being undersized is a major disadvantage in the NHL. Some excel of course, usually top end skill. Usually they have plus skating as well to create space. And being assertive enough or they end up on the outside
I don’t think Bourg skates well enough or has enough grit at the moment. From what I’ve read. Savoie seems to skate well and does have grit for a small player. I like Matt’s chances better, still think it will be hard for him to stick on the Oilers
So is it permitted to ask, for those of us who missed it, who is on Lowetide’s list for next GM as discussed on his show this afternoon?
1A: Skinner / McDavid / Hyman
1B: Holloway ($1.125m) / Draisaitl / Arvidsson
3A: Kane / Nugent-Hopkins / Perry
3B: Janmark / Henrique / Brown
13th: Ryan
1A: Ekholm / Bouchard
2A: Nurse / Stecher
2B: Broberg ($1.125m)/ Ceci
7th: Dermott ($1.125m)
Skinner
Pickard
22 player roster, $21k under cap.
Potential Prospect Callups later in the season:
F: Savoie, Lavoie, Järventie, Philp(?) – If Kane starts on LTIR we may see one of these 3 very soon. It may also be a good idea to lessen the load for Ryan and Perry. If the wheels slow down any more for Perry, we may see one of them replace him, too.
D: Kemp, Wanner, Gleason, Hofenmeyer – There a lot of vet D that may get called upon first.
G: Rodrigue – probably the only option for a goalie callup right now.
Potential Vet Callups:
F: Caggiula (282gp), Pederson (71gp), Hamblin (41gp), Fix-Wolansky (26gp, traded Kulak for Fix-Wolansky)
D: Brown (290gp), Carrick (242gp), Nemailainen (43gp), Dineen (34gp)
What a great summer! Never thought we’d add that kind of firepower upfront and then restock the pipeline, too!
The cupboards were pretty bare, now the top prospects like pretty good:
Savoie, O’Rielly, Jarventie, Akey, Lavoie, Kemp, Wanner, and Rodrigue all look promising to add to Holloway and Broberg. If you squint just right you might see a chance for Berezkin and Petrov, too.
Going from 5 competent D to 4 is misguided.
Handedness derangement syndrome has to end.
Somebody has to go and it looks like it’s either Kulak or Ceci at this point. I really liked Ceci in the final series, and in game 7, I thought he stood out as one of their best. I guess Arvidsson, Henrique, or J SKinner could be traded to get cap compliant too. I bet they’d have good value with their low cap hits. Maybe that’s the plan. It’s not a great way to convince players to sign with you in the future, though, so I doubt it.
Can we make that Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson please?
After years of not having a shooter nor 2 actual top six players, can we let give Drai some talent?
The Nuge – McDavid – Hyman line is fine.
Sure. Holloway at C on 3A? Like this? I could live with that. That 3A is a pretty mean line. I like it.
1A: Nugent-Hopkins / McDavid / Hyman
1B: Skinner / Draisaitl / Arvidsson
3A: Kane / Holloway ($1.125m) / Perry
3B: Janmark / Henrique / Brown
13th: Ryan
Chris Jones is out
A Colossal failure by every real and imaginable measure.
The healing can begin.
Maybe they should get rid of that kicker.
Balance and quality returning the the Oilers prospect pool.
As soon as this year, and comfortably next year Oilers have two prospects that can reasonably projected as top 6 wingers. Holloway and Savoie.
As soon as this year, and comfortably next year Oilers have two prospects that can reasonably projected as bottom 6 wingers. Jarventie and Lavoie.
I count three players that are hoping to one day grab the fourth line center role. Two of them as soon as this year.
Not all prospects will work out. But the probability increases the closer they get. If even half of these players work out the Oilers should be able navigate to a younger cheaper lineup during the painful first few years of the Glimmer twins new contracts.
The new GM is being setup to succeed.
Pretty crazy, we’ve been waiting for a GM to enter the highly volatile emerging talent market for years now.
It’s refreshing to see a player flipped before their contract no longer has any value like. Tyler Benson.
It looks like Jackson is finding value by buying cars with a few scratches and dents (recently injured).
Unpopular idea of the day.
I didn’t think I would ever write this. Certainly not this season.
But . . .
in keeping with the Loud Noises title and the ‘changing of management creates cousins who were once brothers’ and now the acquisition of a couple of young forwards for an already crowded forward group who are largely playing with trade protection and unlikely to move this season . . .
what are the chances that Holloway is available as part of a package for a young RD at some point this season?
Am I imagining things or is it possible that the ‘you have to give to get’ mantra makes him expendable?
It just seems to me that this management group is not finished re-shaping how they want to play so that if Holloway’s offence doesn’t arrive soon he becomes the ‘next McLeod’ for the guy they need on the back end.
I think they like the physical way he plays more than Mcleod’s game but I agree. If the O doesn’t come, he should be traded for need. Enough holding on until players walk or have no value. Give him the at bats Mcleod had and see if he does better at it for cheaper. Make room accordingly if he thrives.
I’d say that’s not an unrealistic read of the situation. It would be pretty sensible to do the trade from a position of strength thing to get what the team needs for a deep run. If our position of depth is wing, then so be it. If Holloway isn’t scoring quite as well as we need then he would for sure be on the block, and should be. I’m still bullish on the young man and would rather see him pop and therefore stay with the team, but as LT alludes to quite often, you can’t get too attached to your prospects – especially when there’s new management in town.
The core are the core, the rest are supporting staff and therefore expendable whether we like it or not.
I was thinking he might be part of a package for a right shot defenseman to play alongside Nurse. For instance, Ceci & Holloway for a sure fit beside Nurse like maybe Braden Schnieder. Then they could sign Broberg and be cap compliant.
Braden Schneider has been exclusively a 3rd pairing Dman to this point in his career (6th, 5th and 6th in TOI/game among Rangers D in his 3 seasons).
He is not a sure fit at 2RD. Hence the modest cap hit for 2 yrs.
Likely a function of the RD ahead of him on the depth chart…Adam Fox and Jacob Trouba.
There has been considerable speculation the Rangers have been trying to move Trouba and move Schneider up in the batting order.
Strong players in front of him, but he hasn’t made much of a case to move up.
He’s been under water relative to team by essentially every metric each year of his career, even with him riding the PDO pony.
Who is better able to help you win the Stanley Cup in 2025 or 2026?
Dylan Holloway (or Matt Savoie), or Rasmus Andersson?
Rasmus is too costly. Braden Schnieder just signed with the NYR for 2 x $2.1M. So, if they trade Ceci & Holloway for Schnieder they have money to sign Broberg and not Holloway to fit under the cap. Something like that works.
Would that make cents?
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Schnieder/Broberg
Kulak-Broberg/Schnieder
Stecher/Brown
Schnieder is unrealistic imo.
If the Oilers were able to trade for a legitimate 2RD then Kulak is next out the door for his cap space and to slot in Broberg so Andersson is not too expensive I don’t think.
Rasmus is unrealistic IMO.
Schneider is NOT available. Only maybe in a larger deal with a signed Draisaitl.
Fox and Schneider are pretty much locked in there for the forseeable future.
I know it’s all hypothetical. That’s just the type of deal. I kinda expect to see. Whether it Ceci or Kulak. I’d rather it be Ceci than Kulak.
Andersson for sure. Seems unlikely though
How is Daniil Miromanov, ever notice him? His usage was in the range and results better, only 20 games though. Was a RW and switched to RD. Big has some skill. There are Weagar and Andersson ahead of him, apparently Conroy wanted him the Hanifin deal though
IF it wasn’t Conroy on the other end of the phone I think you could do a Holloway, Ceci (flip for a 2nd/3rd? at the TD) plus a 2026 2nd for Andersson – or something like that.
With Conroy I think you have to have a 3rd team involved.
The money doesn’t work. You should check wagecap.
Not sure why you think that.
IMO $4.55M doesn’t fit under the cap.
Sure it does. You move Ceci and Kulak for $6M and Stetcher is the 3RD.
Even if Kane starts the season you can make it work with Holloway & Broberg.
The acquisitions of Skinner, Arvidsson and Henrique at reasonable cap hits demonstrate clearly there is little upside in waiting on Holloway to fill one of those roles considering where the Oilers are in the win cycle.
However, given Holloway’s underwhelming stats since he was drafted, what would need to be added to a package to obtain a significant RD?
Holloway is ready to spike. He showed that during the playoffs.
Not sure 7 points in 25 playoff games could be called a spike.
Imagine a chart where on the x-axis it’s the playoff year, and on the y-axis is the number of points per game.
What would it look like for Dylan Holloway?
Or are you more used to the kind of spikes you would see if you did the same chart for your favourite player, PLD, where the spike goes down?
Jebus, you are the mother of all buzz kills. I really, really wish you’d have the interesting summer you surely deserve. And maybe piss off to something that actually brings you joy. Because if being an asshat is the only light in your life, I would absolutely hate to be you. So much pettiness…I honestly wonder what made you the way you are here. I’d read the book. Dead serious. The making of a troll…it would sell.
LOL 😆.
Really, 7 in 25 for a 1st year player is pretty good in my books.
His goals/60 were MUCH higher than both Drai and McDavid in the playoffs.
He’s likely to come in 1 years apx $900K or 2 years at apx $1.25MM and will be massive value for his cap hit on his next contract.
I think Jeff Jackson understands that value.
If Savoie is ready already, he could slot in with Kane & Henrique ASAP.
Holloway can slot in at center with Janmark & Brown. And I might add if Philp is ready things could get very interesting.
Always sad Bill McDougall never got his shot on that Oilers team – or in an era more suited to his skills.
Those numbers today would have had him in the show for a lot longer than he was.
He was slow. Skating was the issue.
where does Savoie fit on the Oiler roster?
3rd line centre on kid line.
Holloway Savoie Lavoie
Where are you playing Henrique in this scenario?
There are FOUR lights…er.. lines.
One will not have to overplay McDavid and Draisaitl during the regular season.
Nugent-Hopkins McDavid Hyman
Skinner, Draisaitl, Arvidsson
Holloway, Savoie, Lavoie
Janmark, Henrique, Brown
!A and !B, 3A and 3B.
WHAT no Derek Ryan or Cory Perry??? Hardy-Har-Har.
I wonder what the goal differential of that 3rd line would be…. hard to imagine it would be positive.
Regular season growing pains for a playoff payoff in June.
I am not sold on Lavoie for this team & I am not as certain as many that Kane won’t be on the roster in some way, shape or form up until the TD.
Uncertainty about Kane complicates things for me.
Yeah Kane is a real mystery. But it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he was ready for game one of the regular season.
To better balance experience with youth on the bottom 6 I would rather swap Savoie and Henrique… but maybe that’s just me.
Agreed, I had this line listed fourth on one of my lineups and got some push back. Call it third line or fourth line, either way the skill and speed should be advantage Oilers vs most teams bottom 6
I never really put much stock in these “cards” but the JFresh cards on the trade are very encouraging (70% chance of becoming an NHL player vs. 5% for Bourgault):
https://x.com/JFreshHockey/status/1812904331533783305
LT – today’s blog post is so on point.
Substitute Bourgault for Benson.
The ‘pick Wallstedt’ crew officially wins now if we hadn’t already – right?
I think the ‘pick Wallstedt’ crew won the moment Wallstedt made the Hockey Hall of Fame.
I know you’re trying to inject a bit of humour here … but the ‘pick Wallstedt crew” had a valid point.
At that time, Skinner had not yet established himself in the NHL, and Rodrigue had just debuted in the AHL. Wallstedt had more value then as a highly touted goalie prospect than Bourgault did
Since then Bourgault has been trending in the same direction that Benson’s career took … career AHLer.
By comparison, Wallstedt is trending towards being an NHL goalie at age 21, and every single prospect list has him as a top 5 goalie prospect.
My point has always been that the math of the draft favoured the Bourgault selection. If you’re going to believe in the math part of the draft, which I do, then you have to defend it.
When comparing apples to oranges (aka – goalie to forward), how exactly do you compare “the math of the draft”? Especially in a year when so many top prospects barely played:
Bourgault 1.38 pts/game in 29 games in the Q, playing with Mavrik Bourque.
Johnston did not play in the OHL due to COVID … Dallas made a bold pick, which is was not the MO under Holland
Stankhoven 1.67 pts/game in 10 games in the WHL … again Dallas either had great intel or were swinging for the fences.
McKenzie’s 2021 list had Wallstedt ranked 12, Bourgault 20, Stankhoven at 27 and Johnston at 40.
Given the goalie situation at the time … there was a clear argument for need meeting the opportunity to draft the consensus best available prospect, and yet the Oilers passed on Wallstedt to trade down and get an extra third round pick, which they used to pick a LHD prospect that “math” indicated was a going to be a distant bell the moment he was drafted.
Fast forward 3 years and Wallstedt is one of the top 5 goalie prospects in hockey, which pretty much every scout in hockey thought he would be. Yes, Skinner has since matured into a bonafide number 1 goalie, and Rodrigue has turned into a pretty good goalie prospect too. But Wallstedt would be an excellent trade chip right now, while Bourgault’s stock is lower now than it was on his draft days and Munzenberger will almost certainly never play a game in the NHL.
I’m not one to crap on Holland, and blame him for all that ails the Oilers … but this was one trade that I hated when it was made. If you’re going to trade down, then you’d better be right. Otherwise you’re Kevin Lowe trading down to pick MA Pouliot and JF Jaques.
And Wyatt Johnson was sitting right there and recommended by Paul Coffey.
To me this is the big miss. Big fast skilled RS C are more rare than goalies
Jim Matheson
Undoubtedly Oiler assistant GM Keith Gretzky, who looks after Bako, was consulted heavily on Bourgault deal to Sens. The trade is admission that taking F Bourgault in round 1 in 2021 instead of G Jesper Wallstedt or C Wyatt Johnston was loud swing and a miss
Coffey coached him at the bantam/midget levels. He did not coach him in Major Junior.
He was not part of the organization in any official capacity in 2021.
Johnston didn’t play a single game in junior in his draft season. The year before he put up 30 points in 53 games as a rookie on Windsor.
It’s easy to look back with the retrospectoscope and say “I’d have picked the high scoring RH centre” 3 years after the fact. But on draft day no one here would’ve been happy if we used the 20th pick on the 40th ranked prospect on McKenzie’s list who didn’t play a single game in his draft year.
Can’t change the past, but JJ certainly can and is improving the future of this organization. All teams make questionable draft picks that do not work out. All teams also pass on future hall of famers.
I am very interested in the seeing if JJ made the right call in drafting Sam O’Rielly. We should know in 4-5 years.
I think Paul Coffey wins. Pick Johnston.
Fair.
Depends on the big Finn. If he works out the pick wasn’t wasted, could still debate the goalie, although I would have taken Johnston. Also, Jackson plugging holes, addressing the lack of Finns, who are essential to the Oilers
Never won a cup without at least 2 Finns on the roster!
Edmonton Oilers
@EdmontonOilers
The #Oilers have acquired forward Roby Jarventie & a fourth-round selection in 2025 from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for forwards Xavier Bourgault & Jake Chiasson.
——————
Chiasson is an ECHL player at this point so a non-prospect.
I know nothing about Jarventie except he had 9G and 20P in 22 AHL games last year and did get in to 7 NHL games and its a big man – listed at 6’2/214.
6’2’s not nothing. Hoping Jarventie can push those above him for playing time. Competition breeds better teams.
I wonder however if this isn’t the best time to swing a trade like this. Former first rounders, even ones that have lost their shine, are still very valuable trade chips at the deadline for rentals.
Jarventie was pick 33 in his draft year and was August bday. Pedigree is pert near the same and if he has any snarl at all could be good to pair with Lavoie in the future 4th line as soon as this season. YMMV.
All of a sudden the Oilers were short left-handed forward prospects.
Savoie – Lavoie – Bourgault implied a lack of playing time for a RW in the top-6 in BAK.
Now Jarventie can play top-6 and special teams in the AHL, and be in line for promotion to the Adam Erne role.
I don’t believe that 6’2/214 is nothing – if he is 214 (listed in elite prospects as 214 but on hockeydb as 184.
I would suggest that, as of now, Bougault’s trade value is very well below a 1st round equivalent – a good start to the season, near PPG, would raise his value but the recived player has been MUCH better in the AHL and is only a couple of months older, and they got a fourth round pick (which is more valuable than Chiasson at this point).
not Bourgeault
Action Jackson cleaning up the mess on aisle 1
Bob Stauffer
The Edmonton Oilers have liked Roby Jarventie for a while. Has some size. Can skate and shoot. He is also waiver-exempt for another season. Add some draft capital picking up the 4th
Scouting report from his draft year mentions an excellent shot, good passer and good speed for his size. Defensive awareness was his glaring deficiency that resulted in him dropping to the 2nd round.
Elite Prospects has his updated weight at 214 lbs.
He’s shown consistent progress year over year in the AHL.
Hopefully his knee issue is rectified and he can get back on track and get another cup of coffee in the NHL this season.
Leavins saying that this is another trade where the conversation began at the draft.
I wonder who else was Jackson having conversations with …
Yeah, I had the same thought. Pretty obvious they travelled there with a plan.
He’s a forward. But does he shoot left, or right can he play center???
Why you don’t pick Q players in the first round for 1000.
Hey now, MAP is a week younger than current Oiler Corey Perry and potted 14 goals for Geneve Servette in the Swiss-A last season. There’s still a chance he comes back! 😛
lets hope
Except for 2020…..
The Oilers need better scouts in the Q. We haven’t drafted useful player from that league since Hemsky.
It’s shocking how aggressively Edmonton is procuring and reshaping the prospect pipeline. This is a full on organizational directive. I give edmonton the edge but don’t know Jarventie’s game, just math.
Per LT’s Training Camp hopefuls on Borgault:
“Where did he finish among 20-year old AHL players in points-per-game? Bourgault’s .55 pts-game ranked him No. 17, behind Quinton Byfield, Lukas Reichel, Luke Evangelista, Jean-Luc Foudy, William Eklund, Roby Jarventie, Tyson Foerster, Vasily Ponomaryov, Ridly Greig, Jake Neighbours, Elliot Desnoyers, Daniil Gushchin, Mavrik Bourque, Will Cuylle, Thomas Bordeleau and Cross Hanas.”
So 17th as a 20 year old to 6th. That sounds like a win, and historically a better precedent for an NHL career.
The only difference is X is Right handed, but may have been replaced in the orgs mind by O’Reilly. Edit: and Savoie
The old regime orphans are being culled.
At first glance, it seems like Edmonton is getting a guy who has been tracking better, but is now a question mark due to having major knee surgery (not able to find what the surgery was).
Ottawa is getting a guy who has historically played a highly skilled game, but for some reason was regressing significantly in Bako. Maybe the Sens think they can do a better job of developing him and see the last season as a failure of the org, not the player. If XB does well next year, it’ll certainly fire up the debates about Chaulk’s usage of developing NHL talent vs AHL veterans
Chaulk has been told how to handle the team now. His comment that Sr. management (ie JJ) has told him to play Savoie at center confirms this.
The job of the AHL team is to produce NHLers, not ‘win with the vets’ so that the coach can get an NHL job.
I would be happy to see Chaulk get in line with the Oilers organization, but if not then LT will have to do a Sail On piece on Chaulk.
Stealing “Old Regime Orphans” as my next band name. 🤓
Geoff Jackson strikes again
5 points in 6 games as a 19 year old at the beginning of last season coming off an injury and, I believe, no training camp – that is impressive.
With that said, transitioning from junior to playing a full 70 game season of pro hockey against men, well, that’s a different task.
Savoie is likely skilled enough to play in the NHL and would likely do fine starting in the NHL.
I also think that he could/would/should benefit to learning the grind and being a pro at the AHL level, playing with good players.
I don’t know “the best” plan for the player himself but I do know that, subject to injuries, it seems unlikely he’d get top 6 minutes in the NHL right away, not sure I want him on the 3rd line, and he won’t be on an NHL fourth line.
I think that there is a spot for him in the lineup if Kane goes on LTIR. However, if Kane plays in the regular aeason, then I see no reason to rush Savoie to the NHL as he’d likely be stuck on the 4th line anyways. We don’t need to do a Ken Holland-style overbaking if all of our prospects, but I don’t think getting at least 30-40 games in the AHL logging big minutes would be a bad idea.
So I guess that’s yet another potential roster decision hanging in the balance until Kane’s season gets sorted out (which we likely won’t 100% know until day 1 of the regular season)
I’ve got time for Arvidsson on the 3rd line but I think the org will be looking to see if he can be a wealthy man’s Yamamoto circa 2020 on Drai’s right wing.
If that’s the case, I think the top 6 is locked and I’m not sure I start Savoie on a 3rd line, no?
Holloway-Henrique-Savoie? Why not?
Janmark would be fine instead of Holloway.
Sure, give it a shot, I guess, but not sure I love it on its face (i.e. two non-established players that are both likely to turn pucks over at bluelines/in the neutral zone (Holloway still has a penchant for that).
Even with Henrique being a good 2-way player, I suspect that line would be chasing a ton in the defensive zone, no?
Jeff Jackson makes another good trade:
Bourgault and Chiasson to Ottawa for 2020 2nd round pick Roby Jarventie.
Big Finn LW
Ottawa throws in a 4th rounder in 2025. So its effectively Bourgault for Järventie.
Same age, Järventie was nearly a ppg in the AHL last year and got some NHL time. Meanwhile XB…also played in the AHL.
JJ just going about making Edmonton better across the board.
Jarventie had season ending knee surgery for a chronic problem.
Hopefully his recovery has gone well, because he was trending to be a more substantial player in the AHL than Bourgault was.
I still think they should’ve have taken Wallstedt.
The Oilers have long struggled with picks from the Q.
He was drafted the year prior, but is only 2 months older than XB. So far he has been far more productive in the AHL. He’s got a bit more size and is seemingly a little closer to making the NHL, but I haven’t seen him play or know anything about him.
lower cap hit too.
Seems like a decent trade at first glance.
Edit – I think we got their 4th next year as well
I like the trade. Better to strike now and move Bourgault before his value potentially drops further – a bad start to the AHL season and we’d be getting buttons/zero for him. I wish him well but Jackson has to do what he has to do to restock the cupboard.
The Wallstedt believers will be out in full force today…
I’m one of those who was aghast that they traded down when a top goalie prospect in Wallstedt had just dropped into our lap like manna from heaven.
Only to draft a winger from the Q, who was being zoomed by a better prospect (Mavriq Bourque) and was a bit too small and and a bit too slow to make an impact as an AHLer, along with an offence optional defenseman with the the third round pick.
I can’t say I was aghast, that’s kind of a strong reaction. I also can say I wasn’t surprised that the Oilers chose to trade down (more bullets and all that). We still don’t know what we don’t know on Wallstedt, he’s tracking well for sure.
Munzenberger in the 3rd was a bit more baffling to me. Surely he’d have been still there in later rounds. We had a 4th, 2 6ths and a 7th still to come.
I need to go back and look at the draft boards to see where Bourgault was slotted in, but round about our pick seemed about right at the time (from my hazy memory).
Yes I’ve been saying this for years. It’s hard to draft so if you know the player isn’t a fit move on instead of running the value and the player’s confidence into the ground
Was usually met with nobody wants them etc no value. Apparently if you are a good enough trader things can get done
Great for Bourg as well to get a fresh start with a weaker NHL team, more opportunity
No doubt that was a draft miss but I think the miss was not picking Wyatt Johnston (not Wallstedt) – I think there were inner-organizational eyes on him as well (Coffey), if I’m not mixing him up with someone else.
Was Coffey even part of the organization in 2021?
Those of you saying that you would’ve picked Johnston are cherry picking …. Johnston didn’t play a single game in the OHL that year. None of you knew who that kid was, let alone that he was going to be the top scorer from the 2021 draft, ahead of the likes of Berniers, McTavish, Kent Johnson, and Guenther.
2021 was one of the craziest draft years ever. Wanner was picked in the 7th round and may end up playing more NHL games than Bourgault. Nobody knew anything that year, which is why they should’ve picked the consensus best prospect available with their first round pick, which was Wallstedt, instead of trading down.
“One of his coaches back then was legendary defenseman Paul Coffey, who’d tell any NHL scout and general manager who’d listen that Johnston doesn’t rely solely on his offensive skills.
“It didn’t matter what point of the game it was – if I needed to win a faceoff, to kill a penalty, to score a goal, Wyatt was always the first guy I tapped to go out there,” Coffey recalled of a teenager with “off the charts” hockey sense.”
When exactly was Coffey a coach on the Windsor Spitfires?
Sail on, Xavier.
Closest comparable to Savoie (5-9 / 179) that I can think of is Brayden Point (5-10 / 178).
Point D+2
AHL: 4 pts in 9 games / NHLe = 18*
WHL: 88 pts in 48 games / NHLe = 45
Savoie D+2
AHL: 5 pts in 6 games / NHLe = 33
WHL: 47 pts in 23 games / NHLe = 51
*NHLe from Frozen Tools
Point D+3 (Even Strength)
NHL: 28 points in 68 games / 14:22 ATOI / 1.72 pts per 60
The issue with Savoie is opportunity. I do not see him getting into the top 6 even with one (1) injury. Kane may or may not be available and Holloway can move up. Now, assuming Kane is not available, there may be a spot if multiple injuries occur OR the old guys (and there are lots of them) falter.
I see Savoie as the Jeff Skinner replacement for the 25/26 season.
I’m not sure Savoie has the same two way game, but that would be great
Progress from the top six bottom six thinking. Contenders are really top nine, bottom three.
Cassandra would have you believe there’s no such thing as bottom-six.
Truth be told, I kinda like that idea. At a certain point, you’ve got to at least be a threat to score.
I am progressing. During the decade of darkness it was the Top 3 (at best). The last few years it was the Top 6. Given adding Henrique as 3C, I will now adopt the Top 9. Progress not perfection.
This has got to be the most intriguing storyline of the offseason. The downstream implications are enormous.
Won’t be able to catch the show today, any way you can post the list when you’re off the air? Inquiring minds want to know…
GM’s are not what they used to be. The modern GM is a facilitator of information flow. It might be argued that this was always the case, but there are much more different sources and types of information now, so the GM’s idiosyncratic influence is much less than in the past. The era of Pollock, Torrey, and Sather is over.
It is a much more collaborative job.
I can’t reconcile that with what we are seeing now
Same people in place, the only difference is the non GM
I’m not saying the GM does everything but definitely directs the charge. Also I think Jackson at least has a major hand in deals if not doing himself, it’s so different than before
Holland is risk adverse where he should take more risk. And he was too risky where he should have been risk adverse.
He was resisting what the information flow from all the departments was telling him.
He was old style GM’ing, relying on his only idiosyncratic style, rather than adapting to trusting the new data and information flows.
Holland got the Oilers out of Egypt, but he was still got stuck wandering around the desert, pounding his staff twice. He got the Oilers to where he could see the promised land, but he was not going to get him there.
Hillary step GM.
Game 7 of the SC final and having set the team for continued success is “not getting to the promise land”? Nonsense.
Good thing most of us can see your post as nothing more than conjecture on your part.
It was a poor bet to go all-in on Ceci again after Vegas last year. It was a massive GM fail. It was cowardly GM’ing.
Jackson is intent on disrupting Lowetide’s programming. 😎
So with that said, what does this season look like for Savoie? I don’t see a spot for him on the top two lines as they were rolled out last year, so do the Oilers look at finally deploying three scoring lines, or do they roll with him in the A until the local media can rejoice when he’s brought up late in the year as a “deadline acquisition”?
If you go to Oilers roster on any website, look at the ages of the forwards, I think there’s an answer there.
I’d add that 3 scoring lines is more likely/probable than ever (recent memory) with Henrique at 3C.
Holloway-Henrique-Savoie, for instance, could be a pretty nice setup to play and learn.
I like this idea! Having a legitimate top 6 guy centering the third line really opens up some interesting possibilities.
What’s the over/under on NHL games for Savoie this year? I’d be tempted to go the over purely based on the ages.
Injuries are going to be a thing, some of the AHL guys are primed to grab some games this year.