I don’t spend as much time staring at drafts these days, suspect I’ll get a chance next decade if I’m blessed with good health and these old eyes of mine can still see. The 2018 draft for Edmonton was surrounded by several sources, I think Draft Analyst deserves some credit for actually listing Mike Kesselring before draft day.
In 2019, I had Rapheal Lavoie within a whisker of Philip Broberg on my final 2020 draft list. Broberg was at No. 16, Lavoie No. 26, close enough that I wouldn’t have batted an eye if the team chose Lavoie before Broberg. I would have (and did) raised an eyebrow when the club drafted the Swedish defenseman at No 8, though. These years later, as we head into year six for those two men, Broberg appears to have clean air and Lavoie seems to be pulling in to the last chance Texaco. When it comes to prospects, we don’t know what we don’t know.
It is so easy for a prospect to get lost in an organization. In the fall of 2011, I worried about Linus Omark’s path to a regular job in the NHL. In 2010-11 he posted a 1.78 points-per-60 at five on five and I thought he might be able to be a productive part of a strong third line. Maybe Shawn Horcoff and Magnus Paajarvi (who scored 15 goals in 2010-11) could chime in and look after Omark’s defensive issues and he could ramble on offensively.
If you looked at that Oilers 2011-12 pre-season roster, the top-six forwards were likely to be Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan Smyth, Ales Hemsky and either Sam Gagner or Shawn Horcoff as No. 2 center. I thought a third line could house Omark. As it turned out, Renney lost Omark. And Paajarvi, too.
Today I’d like to talk about players like Linus Omark. I think he could have had a career if he landed with a more mature organization, or a more stable one. At the time, the organization had moved away from the Craig MacTavish era and spending time looking for the next long-term coach. Tom Renney replaced Pat Quinn and several names have come since.
Omark’s time in the organization, like that of Teemu Hartikainen and others, was slammed up against miles of other guys looking for work. Some of those other guys were first-round picks, some chosen first overall. I believe the Oilers constant changing of managers and coaches cost these men.
Fast forward to today, and I think the Oilers are a more mature organization. There are tells that suggest a more logical approach is being deployed. The recent trade of Xavier Bourgault, who was not progressing, and the Raphael Lavoie contract suggests the team has a spot in mind for him.
Lavoie signed for $775,000 this coming season. That makes him less expensive than veterans Derek Ryan and Corey Perry, two men who may struggle with the speed of the game (or get injured) during the coming season. Lavoie’s competition for 14F (I suspect the team will run with 13 forwards) includes only Roby Jarventie, Lane Pederson, Matt Savoie, Noah Philp and James Hamblin.
I don’t think Matt Savoie is competition because the organization will want him to play every night and with big minutes. That means AHL, unless Savoie makes the team in a prominent role. That is possible, by the way.
I could be wrong, but it seems to me the Lavoie opportunity this fall is cleaner than any offered Linus Omark at the same point in his career with Edmonton. Different eras, surely, but there is a path to NHL employment for Lavoie in 2024-25. I don’t think Omark had a clear shot at a full NHL season with the Tambellini Oilers.
I have scoured the league for undervalued UFA’s and maybe he can been brought in on a PTO, but I think a younger and better version of Adam Erne as the 13th forward would be a bonus.
https://www.silversevensens.com/player-review-boris-katchouk/
I know that Noah Philp or Lane Pederson are seen as potentially superior options to Derek Ryan, but given that is the dog days of summer, I will continue to beat this drum. Stauffer touted him last season and I was watching his games. Man is he a smart player. I can only imagine his impact on a better team and with better linemates.
https://youtu.be/riUQ3AgdqCM?si=EJ9qrc-1hADr3Z0b
This is an absolutely professionally put together presentation. After watching this, who says no to Nic Dowd as the 4C?
If you watch him closely, IMO he plays like a slightly faster Adam Henrique. He would put this team over the top.
Never understood how a player who was 0.4 PPG playing on bad teams in mostly middle or bottom six roles was not viable in the NHL.
The NHL flip-flop on the spin-o-rama made me think that it was the league that was not ready for Omark. Yet just a few years later the Michigan gained acceptance. If Omark were born a few years later I think he would have had a longer NHL career.
Laughed at the reaction and post game whining from the opposition bench (Tampa?), sighed when old hockey men started the media pile on.
Can we just figure out a way to get Woodguy hired as the next Oilers GM?
Didn’t he once say he would trade Draisaitl and Nurse for OEL?
In 2018 I was asked my opinion on an OEL trade.
I said I’d do Nurse and Drai for him if he was signed for 8 years.
It was a bad opinion then, looks worse now.
I never deleted the tweet despite the torrent of shit I take over it.
I own my bad takes with the good ones.
Here’s a link to it:https://x.com/Woodguy55/status/1370218734409818121
Chilling on the deck with a gin & juice and as one Spotify selection segues into another, I’m struck by the resemblance to the LT archive.
Peter Pumpkinhead, Lost in the Supermarket, New World Man, Better Be Home Soon, Dead Flowers, Tonight’s the Night, Wheat Kings.
Lowetide and K-Tel present the songs of hockey past past, present, and future. I’d buy that LP!
Smokin’ indo?
https://youtu.be/wTMfZGyqQQc?si=XOfr3ZJGBR8nyB-y
No clue who this guy is, but NHL_Sid follows him.
https://x.com/BillyStefnhl/status/1814747450198139151
A quick look at who NHL_Sid follows does not indicate a particularly high bar.
I have no idea who Jackson is going to hire but the sooner the better for all sorts of reasons. 🥸
Haha, obviously a sketchy Twitter account.
He appears to have broken the Skinner to Edmonton news 5 hrs before Friedman.
Fair enough but there were rumours about Skinner to Edmonton leading up to free agency. Maybe he’s right but to me it seems more like reading tea leaves than actual insider info.
Awfully quiet from the big guys on this for what should be a major story for them.
What a bad move if they hire Bowman in any capacity.
The down-votes are a surprising back look for Lowetide’s community. Smart people know he was a mediocre GM who inherited all the pieces from Tallon. Then proceeded to do poor things with the team – and give out some of the worst contracts in NHL history.
The fact that he hid a case of sexual abuse within the team is horrible, but even just a footnote in the shitty history of Stan Bowman.
My problem with Bowman is his track record as a GM. The other side of it , he seems to have taken responsibility and has taken steps in the right direction.
Cant wait for the HH post on canucks signing Sprong. Cancel the season, the canucks just won.
Canucks just got easier to play against.
Speaking of “distressed assets”…Sprong is the definition.
He spent last season with the hapless Red Wings but in the season before in Seattle he had some interesting fancies.
FF% 56:03
GF% 65.57
HDCF% 53.02
HDGF% 63,89
In that final season in Seattle he scored 21G 46P in only 66GP +13 while playing only 11:25/GP.
He would seem to be an astute pickup for depth scoring and at a cap hit of only $925K is a very low risk bet.
Interesting to note that in that season with Seattle, he played 15% of his TOI vs. elites and 54% vs. Gritensity.
Absolutely a bottom 6 player but one that can score more than 20 goals and get a 66% goal share has real value.
Just feed him 70% ozs primarily against dregs and hope for 1.049 PDO to reappear. Get him off the ice before the puck crosses def blueline or higher level competition takes the ice.
Whatevet you do:
Don’t expect him to hit anyone or backcheck.
Later in his career Omark has talked about him having crippling anxiety issues when playing, he got it under control with the help of his wife when playing in Switzerland from what I understand.
I think the way he handled it before was to be a bit unserious, failure isn’t as scary if you’re just mocking about. Probably made him difficult to coach though.
From a skill perspective I think he would’ve been a more efficient NHLer if he could’ve added either a quicker first few steps or a better wrister from mid range. As it was he had to rely so much on his ability to shield the puck and stickhandling to make room for his playmaking and creativity. The latter being one of my favourite traits in a player ever, he’s so incredibly creative with the puck.
He’s still playing and is a top player in the SHL at 37 btw. A little less productive last season, 40 pts in 52 GP, but he was lacking support. His team looks stronger offensively going in to next season so there’s a good chance he’ll bounce back. It’s the last year of his contract so maybe this upcoming season will be his last, he’s hinted it might be. I do think he has a few more years of quality if his heart’s still in it.
Thanks for that insight SP. some guys just aren’t cut out for the NHL. But I think the Oilers as an organization at the time was not cut out to help a player like Omark find his way either.
A moment, I’ll never forget.
Omark, what a legend!
https://youtu.be/KLSuaxLVpVs?si=YQHUtv-RLaDPKmvN
I’ve been thinking lately, I don’t think Derek Ryan has much of a place on this team anymore. The team has gotten too good.
He’ll be in the Sam Gagner role this season. It helps to have good vets around the team … the on and off ice habits that you need to have as a pro are best taught by good examples
I kind of agree. I don’t think the team has gotten too good just Ryan seems to have finally hit the age related cliff.
His first two playoffs for the Oilers, Ryan was outstanding. This last season he was underwhelming. I hope he and Perry play every second game this season so if the impossible happens Ryan can get his name on the Cup for being a good solider here for years.
That’s right. What I meant to say is ‘the team should be too good’. I did see Ryan as area that is needed to be upgraded. He’s too vanilla for the role. An aggressive, defensive RH4C should be what they should be after.
I don’t have him on the opening night 21-man roster.
I’m thinking the oilers don’t either.
I said at the time of the signing this was another one of Holland’s ‘Mike Smith’ specials. Two years to keep the cap hit down the 1st year and then the cranky back, waivers, whatever, for year 2.
Replace Perry with Lavoie and J. Brown/D. Ryan with Broberg and Holloway (signed for $1,920,000 aggregate) and they have a 21-player cap compliant roster with not trades and no LTIR (i.e Kane on the active roster).
4C is an issue (but its an issue with Ryan in any event).
Lane Pederson (or Noah Philp) could slot in at 4C but its got to be Lavoie, no?
In regards to distressed assets, I wonder how distressed Jiricek is for CBJ.
The player is not happy. This is known. Maybe a new coach will help.
Does the org still want him, or do they feel they’re at a the point where they’d turn him into what they think is a comparable asset(s)?
6’4″ RHD who can pass. 5th overall pick.
Turns 21 this winter.
2 more years at 918K.
He’d be worth a lot to EDM and CBJ may want to cash him in.
Worth a phone call for sure.
I know nothing about the player, except that he is a high draft pick who is progressing. I also think finding someone who is about to pop is the best approach to solving the RD issue. Maybe Columbus does it since they also drafted Ceulemens recently? Montreal has also picked Mailloux and Barron in recent years, though he is already in the NHL. What do they need to add to Ceci to make something like this happen? An avoie?
I would suggest that, if Ceci was going the other way in the trade the Oilers would be giving up two major first round pick equivalent assets in addition – at least one of Broberg and Holloway and either Savoie or a first round pick or more.
Geoff Jackson does not get taken to the woodshed like this.
He’ll offer Ceci and a 2nd and they’ll take Ceci and a 3rd.
Okie!
Barron drafted by Colorado.
Man, I would love to get him. That would solve the right d issue. I just don’t see an asset we have that could do it short of Broberg Holloway or Savoie.
And we need to add to any of those assets.
I was talking about a used Chevy Trailblazer…
This is a Lamborghini Urus. 🙂
Wheeler has him at #12.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5612279/2024/07/16/nhl-prospects-ranking-celebrini-michkov/
One of the elements that makes such a player vulnerable is a GM change, so he would be as ripe for the pickin’ as he’ll ever been.
The info I have Ceulemans is that he is struggling to keep his head above water in the A, so I don’t think his presence is a factor FWIW.
I think I saw you in an ice-cream parlor,
Drinking milk shakes cold and long
“Five Long Years”, not “Five Years”
“Five Years” is better, but it is about “the remains of the day”.before an apocalyptic end.
whereas “Five Long Years” signifies arrival after a long wait.
There sure isn’t a whole lot to talk about.
drafting is a crap shoot; grand slams in 14, and 15. 16 was bad for 2,3, 4, and 5
Not turning The Rights To Omark into the key piece in a Shea Weber trade was the biggest failure of the Tambellini regime.
Maybe the real Rights To Omark were the friends we made along the way?
Sorry sir, this is the Wrongs To Omark post today.
Excellent
That contract was offered to Lavoie last year (before Jackson arrived) – he was offered a deal at league min (below his QO) with a higher AHL salary and against his agent’s advise, he turned it down and “bet on himself”.
Who knows how his $100K over league min affected any call-up decisions during the season. It may not have.
With respect to his league min AAV for this season, it being a cap savings of $375K vis-a-vis Corey Perry – that could indeed be a factor.
There is a path to opening night 21-player cap compliance without a trade or LTIR – it hinges on J. Brown, D. Ryan and Corey Perry being replaced by Broberg, Holloway and Lavoie (or Philp or Pederson) (and Broberg/Holloway on one-year deals at apx $1,920,000 in aggregate.
Unlikely but possible.
Apparently Jarventie is still not able to skate in full equipment – I’ve got to expect he may have a slow start to the year as he continues to recover and not having been able to train fully in the off-season.
Here is hoping the fans show some patience with him (I’m sure the org will) and that he finds his game a little quicker than Connor Brown did (different surgeries, of course).
I haven’t been able to find any details on the knee injury (other than it was chronic and he was still near a ppg playing thru it), or surgery as of yet. Have you had any luck?
Dusty and Tom has the Locked On Sabres guy on the Oil Stream earlier in the week – that’s where I got the above info from.
At the same time, I can’t remember who, but someone on here challenged the info that the guy provided (I believe the Buffalo guy said he hadn’t played since November and the LT community member said it was a few months later).
Locked on Sens
Yes, sorry, that’s what I meant.
Tks.
10 Jan was Jarventie’s last game.
Apparently he had nagging knee issues going back to the previous season, if not longer, but that isn’t clear.
Jackson cut bait on Bourgault while he still had some value especially as a skilled French Canadian in the Ottawa market. No way we recieve meat and potatoes Jarventie without his recent injury status as both players were trending in the opposite directions. I believe most folks are happy with this trade and will give Jarventie plenty of opportunity to round into that hard to play against Finnish type player that can be very desirable come 2nd round of the Playoffs.
Lavoie played 7 games at only 7 mins a night while James Hamblin played 31 at about 8 mins a night. I’d suspect that had Lavoie been a centre or better than Holloway he would have seen more games regardless of the contract but I don’t think 100k would have kept him off the roster had he been ready
You could be right but there have been points in the last couple of years where even $100K of annual cap hit made a difference – I believe that was more the 2022/23 season when they were in LTIR.
Agh, Evan Bouchard – I remember when his draft cohort were leaving him behind and Ty Smith was the bees knees.
Noah Dobson is a legit superstar but I take Evan Bouchard every day – also a legit superstar and now a top 5 2-way d-man in the NHL.
What about a list of distressed assets?
Players like Kappo Kakko who need a second opinon, Kaliyev who are late to be signed in LA (26/23 contracts, but almost $2MM in cap space), or as Ryan mentioned last night D+4-6 defensemen who play 20+ minutes a night on weak teams such as Henri Jokiharju.
I’ll throw Oliver Kylington’s name into the mix – not sure if he qualifies as distressed but he is available
He’s a UFA (Swede) – we’re approaching late July and Calgary has yet to re-sign him
And yes, yes, he’s a left shot D
Excellent skater and puck distributor with some right side experience (mostly in Europe, limited time at the NHL level)
We’ve worked ourselves into a lather looking for a right shot D and we’re no closer to locating him – we need someone to pair with Nurse, if that guy plays with a left handed stick we should consider that
Ceci out, Kylington in ($2m ish?)
Kylington is coming off a $2.5M salary in Calgary, he may take a little less this late in the summer
a right side of
-Bouchard
-Broberg
-Kylington
-Stecher (7D)
Broberg and Kylington can audition for the Nurse pairing, if neither work, look for an upgrade at the deadline
*edit
Maybe he is a distressed asset- I didn’t realize Kylington missed significant time via the Player assistance program (mental health issues – may have been concussion issues)
I’m not sure what’s going on with him but Calgary is in no hurry to sign him apparently
I believe it is about money & risk (He’s missed most of the last two seasons) rather than that Calgary doesn’t want him back is it not?
Not sure where I read it but I think he wants two years and a raise and Calgary is not thrilled about that given how little return they received from his last contract.
I don’t know much about the contract ask, but yes, money and term (and risk)
I listened to a Flames podcast and the gist of it (as you alluded to) was he and his agent have overplayed their hand a bit and talks have stalled
Given he’s a UFA and other teams can talk to him, there doesn’t appear to be a rush of offers available to him
A 1 year deal to play with a contending team (and several Swedes) may be attractive to him
Playing RHD as a left shot in Europe is totally different than doing so in the NHL … smaller rinks and bigger, faster and more skilled players in the NHL means a left handed RHD has that much less time to take a puck off the boards or from their D partner or goalie on their backhand, and switch the puck to the forehand so they can make a breakout pass.
Saying that so and so did it in Europe doesn’t mean it’ll translate in a good way to the NHL.
Kylington reportedly had a a deal in place with another team, and his agent went back to Calgary and asked them to match … Conroy said good luck and thanks for your service. Then the deal fell through. I would not be surprised if he left for Europe this summer.
I’d rather have another year of Ceci playing on his natural side, than Kylington playing on his off hand.
I’ve liked Jokiharju as a target but unsure if he’s available and he doesn’t provide any(much) cap relief (assuming it’s Ceci out and Henri in)
Arthur Kaliyev remains unsigned. I’m unsure of the local dynamics as to why, but he might be an interesting trade target. Cost wouldn’t be too high, but the potential upside could provide outsized value.
I think that could be solid move for sure, automatically upgraded to a fantastic move due to LT’s reaction alone.
LA has been trying to move Kaliyev for months after he asked for a trade.
Not sure why that hasn’t happened.
Kaliyev is a player who needs a second opinion from another organization.
I know he’s got talent (including a great shot) and LT loved him in his draft year but is this a player that the Oilers need? He’s never really pissed a drop at evens in his NHL career.
He’s more productive than Lavoie, to date.
Sure, but so is every player that’s ever had an NHL point.
Would I rather have Lavoie or Kaliyev on the “tough to play against” 4th line with Janmark? I wouldn’t mind giving Lavoie that shot rather than paying assets for Kaliyev and, likely, signing him to higher NHL AAV.