This is a 2016-17 look at Bakersfield Condors defensemen using Eric Rodgers’ time on ice estimates. Of all the things we don’t have from the AHL, true time-on-ice totals are the most important. I thank Eric for the estimates, and find them credible and insightful. Joey Laleggia never played in the NHL, I think he could have, but this estimate tells us Jordan Oesterle is the guy coaches counted on. He’s also the guy who won an NHL future.
Condors blue 2023-24
Here are the Rodgers on-ice estimates from the 2023-24 season:
- Cam Dineen 22:00
- Philip Broberg 20:09
- Ben Gleason 19:21
- Max Wanner 17:51
- Markus Niemelainen 16:51
- Noel Noefenmayer 16:28
- Phil Kemp 15:01
This list suggests that Dineen (who was 25 last season, Oesterle was 24 in the season above) might be the “Oesterle” from the current group. You never know, and honestly my pick from this group (non-Broberg and non-Wanner group) is Phil Kemp. Shutdown blue who are effective at evens and on the PK often get punished on these estimates (the estimates take goals scored when player is on the ice at evens, the number of evens minutes, then projected over the average number of minutes it takes for an even-strength goal) so we’ll see.
The problem for the old timey Condors above was foot speed. Oesterle could fly, but the rest of the group (mostly) had slow boots. I like this group more, and if you’re looking for a dark horse candidate to play this season I’ll pick Ben Gleason. Long term, Max Wanner is the best bet.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
On the show today, Sports 1440 noon to 2pm, we’ll talk Draisaitl contract, MLB trade deadline, Olympics and more. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Nobody ever responds but John Carlson seems like a great short term solution for RD. Obviously, the Caps would have to retain and the Oilers would have to send back cap. But Carlson is the RD Ekholm.
The problem with Carlson (aside from salary and Washington not wanting to retain) is that his best quality (PP/Offense) isn’t what is needed and his defensive numbers last year were worse than Ceci. I don’t think it would be worth it to trade whatever it would cost to get him from Washington (who is loading up with Chychrun, Dubois, Mangiapane, Raddysh, Roy & Thomson added this summer) plus whatever it would cost to get another team to retain for a high-offense guy that won’t be used in that role.
Carlson also has two years left on his contract with an AAV of $8m and salary of $6m per year, plus SB of $2m per year.
If it were the last contract year, a deadline deal would have been potentially feasible.
Do you watch Washington often? Carlson is an amazing two way player. He would be a great partner for Nurse. As OP mentions below, I think it would be a difficult trade to pull off for a number of reasons. But Carlson is an even strength driver at age 34.
That’s another interesting name.
Vic Ferrari didn’t do us any favors with Nick Jensen or TVR, but who knows.
Carlson kills penalties which surprised me.
Carlson is number 1 on the toi/g leaderboard even at his age
I’ve brought him up recently as well.
Few folks seem interested.
Not sure if it’s the AAV, age, or generally not being familiar with the body of work.
The Caps are looking to continue to contend and to platform Ovi’s chase for the record.
What is the acquisition cost for them to trade Carlsson, take back cap and retain on Carlsson?
Is Edmonton on his 10-team no trade list?
No every player wants to come to Edmonton and this is a US born player than has played 15 seasons for one-single US based team and does have a cup win.
Is is reasonably feasible?
Yes definitely a tough trade to pull off. He would be the near perfect partner for Nurse.
Trades like this were previously unrealistic.
With JJ (ultimately) at the helm, I’m less skeptical it’s possible. Bowman is an uncomfortable wrinkle, but we’ll see how that plays out as time progresses.
To attain such a high calibre player some pain would be involved. But shopping in this aisle is the proper place to focus.
Next potential target. This time, one who could be buried on his team, and able to play right side in a pinch:
Cam York.
Average or better skater according to the NHL Edge data, with strong shooting metrics. Decent size, 6ft and 194 lbs.
Young at 23 years old, and cost controlled (one year to go at $1.6MM AAV, then he’s still an RFA). When I was looking into Ivan Provorov before he was traded, I read a few times on PHI blogs that management might be looking to find York a second opinion.
@frank_seravalli
Got an interesting way to analyze hockey data or solve for a problem? Utah Hockey Club
is holding a Summer Analytics challenge.
Winner lands a part-time, remote paid internship for the first half of Utah’s season.
Details below.
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Gmoney and Woodguy, your part-time remote, paid internship positions await! 😂
This had the quickest downvote of anything I’ve ever posted. Maybe they do still read the comments, here.
Both great guys I miss discussing the Oilers with. Only meant in jest!
Ryan brought up a natural point the other day, that with the dearth of RHD (let alone those who may be available for trade) it would be wise to surround LHD who can cover the starboard side.
How about Cam Fowler?
Long been a favourite of mine. 60th percentile in NHL Edge data for top skating speed, 98th percentile for distance covered. So he still moves around well, despite his age (32). We know he’s got the hairy-assed disposition best suited for playoff hockey. Bit of a down year last year, on a very poor team, but historically a quality defenseman.
Two years remain on his $6.5MM AAV deal (which would be a hurdle in and of itself), has a 6-team trade list so there are certainly few avenues for trade. Something tells me he’d want a legit chance to win, and there are few better positioned teams to do so than EDM.
I think Fowler would be worth looking at. He’s been a number 1 d forever.
In his prime, he was an absolute beast.
He still plays 24:23 per game.
I seem to recall earlier in his career that he played RD, but I could be wrong.
Unfortunately, like Carlson, he has that extra year left on his contract.
Getting any type of retention on the contract is difficult with that extra year left on it.
Based on the amount of retention likely required, you’re probably quite right.
But, ANA isn’t likely to contend any time soon. I’m sure that Verbeek could be convinced, if Fowler was willing.
I brought him up here in Jan – Feb, lots of negative feedback about that…there are many observers of our team who believe him to be not very good at defending. Also an American who seems to have very deep roots established in Cali….However now there is the Henrique factor….
Perhaps an American by amalgamation, but according to hockeydb, Cam Fowler is originally from Windsor, Ontario.
At any rate, Fowler is a bonafide top pairing defender and seems to have aged very well despite his ornery style. If the specifics of a deal were able to be reached without too much pain for EDM, there could be a really strong fit for a couple Cup runs.
There’s a lot of talk here of advanced stats and pairings, but not a lot about zone deployment.
If you want to improve a player’s shot metrics the way to do that is by giving the player more offensive zone starts. This is a known. Coaches know this. Analytics guys know this. Only exceptional players can start in their own zone and produce nice metrics.
Generally, most coaches deploy to score. They give their top lines offensive zone starts to have an increased chance at scoring.
But the way to make a silk purse from a sow’s ear is to deploy to shelter: start your best players in the defensive zone. Some coaches have done this to great success, Darryl Sutter being one.
Below is the Oilers deployment chart from last season from Left Wing Lock.The players with negative shot share are in blue, those with positive are in red.
All of the best possession players on the team were given the best zone starts together.That’s deployment for scoring: “Quick let’s put Bouchard and McDavid on the ice together, we need to score.”
McDavid and Bouchard are two of the best possession players in the history of hockey. If you want to make the whole team better, you give them more defensive zone deployments: they will score anyway because on average they will move the puck up the ice without issue.
Nurse and Draisaitl, however, have issues moving the puck up the ice and issues with zone entries. They should be getting the greater proportion of offensive zone starts. This will make their corgis happy.
So many problems for Nurse. So many problems created by a new coach who more consistently put him in a position to fail in the playoffs (2024 playoffs OZS% of 40!).
Thanks for this. I don’t see a time frame though or game state. To me sometimes it’s a personnel issue. Here we see Ceci and Des having the worst results on their pairs. One is gone
To the eyeballs both struggle with pace of play, aren’t quick, so it affects moving the puck. Small sample Troy looks better here and on NST
It’s why a few have been banging the desk about finding anyone decent with more mobility and better puck skills. Nurse can handle the physical stuff on P2. I think it will be noticeably better overall and for the 2/3 LD with partners more capable and better suited
With the way the speed is going and more players with better hockey skills, hockey ability is a must, have to be able to keep up and play fast enough. Maybe a monster like Zadorov still gets away with it because of size and violence, except with Cole
5v5 for certain. OZO% is close to 82 gm data from NST, but is not an exact copy.
The stats show that personnel is important – but that zone deployment has a bigger effect.
What happens with this team when your best players – who are possession monsters – get a greater proportion of Dzone starts?
Looking at Sutter’s deployment with lesser teams I can tell you there’s a very strong chance that it drags all of your team on the positive side of shot share. That 50 percent line moves to the left.
Here we have Florida, with Barkov taking more d zone starts. You can call it the Yzerman effect if you want. But if you want the Oilers to be an even better team 5v5, deploy McDavid like Barkov, and Bouchard like Ekblad. The corgis will be as happy as royals in Buckingham palace.
The 50 percent moves to the left because the OZ time for all players increases.
Look at the lower numbers of blue bubbles in Florida’s chart.
Overall the Oilers had very positive shot metrics because their best players bombarded the opponent. But if you give more D zone starts to the best players, expected goals will decline for 97 & 2, but increase for 29 and 25.
just putting Broberg on the right side will have a much smaller effect.
Under Sutter, in CGY, players with highest OZS% included Zadorov and Lucic. That’s a way to get away with a slow defender. Zadorov is probably decent on the cycle, where being strong matters, and being slow is less of a problem. So, start him in the OZ.
Sutter teams were coached to shoot at the net from anywhere. So they always had large numbers of shot volume stats.
Quality of shots matters more than volume, especially when a blind shot on goal often leads to defensive recovery and zone exit.
Yes, Carolina does the same. But Sutter’s deployment decisions certainly caused eyebrows to raise. More than one occasion, his team was needing to sore and he put-out Lucic in OZ.
And how did that work out?
Good question. That team finished first in the Pacific with 111 points, more points than any Oilers team since 19885-1986. But all the stars got p-o’ed and left.
I’m not sure how long you’ve been here, Daniel. Back in the days of Manny Malhotra, we used to collectively obsess over tough zone starts. In those days, we thought more about coaches using zone starts to shelter players rather than even competition.
A fleury of articles were posted around 2015 that basically said, “Zone starts don’t actually matter.”
It was blasphemy for most of us to read at the time.
The first problem with zone starts is that the data is misrepresented.
Nobody starts 60% of their shifts in the offensive zone or 40% of their shifts in the defensive zone.
Nobody does, mate.
Those are just ratios of offensive to defensive zone starts that excludes neutral zone starts and on-the-fly starts.
60% of all starts are in the fly and 15% are in the neutral zone.
Yes I’m somewhat familiar with that debate.
“Nobody starts 60% of their shifts in the offensive zone”
These are the measures from NST:
Off. Zone Start % – Percentage of starts for the player that were Offensive Zone Starts, excluding Neutral Zone and On The Fly Starts. Off. Zone Starts*100/(Off. Zone Starts+Def. Zone Starts)
Off. Zone Faceoff % – Percentage of faceoffs in the offensive zone for which the player was on the ice, excluding neutral zone faceoffs. Off. Zone Faceoffs*100/(Off. Zone Faceoffs+Def. Zone Faceoffs)
OZS% definitely reflects player usage by the coach, we can argue to what extent. But it most certainly does matter. I don’t care if it’s not in fashion. We know coaching deployment decisions impact performance. OZS% has an extremely high correlation to CF%. Deployment has something to do with those numbers.
Here’s a quote from Sean Tierney:
https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/27864156/wysh-list-most-overrated-advanced-stats-hockey
Here are some results this year for defenders from the PuckIQ shift chart…
Showing CF% for each type of start 2023-2024 reg, 5v5.
Name / Shift Type / CF%
Evan Bouchard / all / 60.43
Evan Bouchard / ostart / 69.87
Evan Bouchard / nstart / 55.97
Evan Bouchard / dstart / 51.77
Evan Bouchard / otf / 60.87
Darnell Nurse / all / 53.15
Darnell Nurse / ostart / 63.49
Darnell Nurse / nstart 48.63
Darnell Nursed/ start / 39.52
Darnell Nurse / otf / 54.89
I calculate Nurse’s CF% EXCLUDING defensive zone starts to be 55%, which is a 2 percent increase on his over-all percentage.
But that’s not the key argument to this type of deployment. The key argument is the net benefit to the team of starting the best possession players in the defensive zone, thereby decreasing team defensive zone TOI, increasing offensive zone TOI, and increasing the TEAM OZS%.
That’s not quite true, though. If you add up Nurse’s corsi percentage at nstart, ostart, and otf start and divide them, by 3, his CF% excluding dzone starts is 2 percent higher.
However, if you do that, you’re not weighing things correctly since 61% of his corsi events occurred OTF. When you weight it correctly, the number drops down to 1.6%.
That’s still not a fair number because you’re never going to have a player with 100% OZ starts and no DZ starts.
I took the liberty of weighing him for 60% OZ to DZ starts and his CF would be 53.61 which is 0.46% higher.
.
Yes, it’s true – Excluding the D zone starts: 1292 CF, 1064 CA, 55 CF%. This number includes all events, including OTF. I added each count to calculate I didn’t take an average. Excluding Nurse’s DZS, raises his overall CF% from 53% to 55%. I’d past a link to a screen shot of my spreadsheet, but it would get flagged and be put into moderation.
Yes, this is true. Let’s pretend that giving Nurse more OZ starts only adds 1 percent to his CF%. Now give those zone starts to Bouchard, or as many of them as you can. What is the overall improvement to the team? Now do the same for every player that can’t sustain a positive shot share when they start in their own zone. Give more OZ starts to the 5 man unit of:
Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele Nurse-Ceci
more than
RNH-McDavid-Hyman Ekholm-Bouchard.
Looking at several of these charts, over many seasons (it used to be a staple with Hockey Prospectus, War on Ice, so many others as you may remember), what happens is that more of the skaters end-up with positive OZS% and the team has a higher CF%.
In the charts above, Florida has better balance in shot-share across its top-6 and top-4. I think it’s largely due to deployment. And I think the Oilers can have better balance if they start their best players in their own end of the rink. Those shifts in terms of TOI account for 11 percent of Nurse’s 5v5 time. If you can make a more positive impact in that window of time for the 5 players in the top-5 that are struggling, that can make a difference.
Hold up, please.
How long have I been reading your posts about the work done by Dellow explaining how OFZS% correlating to the coach’s trust of a player?
Surely I’m missing something here, so that’s why I want to ask up front… what am I missing?
Either zone starts matter, a la Dellow, or they don’t… a la Tierney.
I was quoting Dellow’s work on the OTF starts. On-the-fly.
That’s the latest thing I recall from Dellow before he was hired by the Devils.
He had suggested that coaches use high OTF starts to shelter players like 3rd pairing defensemen. This explained the mystery of why 3rd pairing d often have good to great stats against elite comp.
They jump on the ice when their team has possession and the puck is headed to the other team’s zone.
Okay, so that doesn’t correlate to zone starts because of the whistle/reset in play that is available to choose personnel?
If so, that makes more sense. OTF is a way to shelter a player based the flow of play, and zone starts (while different) are another way to shelter — or lean on — certain players based on game state.
Is there a meaningful correlation between the two stats?
Not certain what you’re looking for… or if this is too way back. i’m not a twitter guy, sorry.
http://web.archive.org/web/20120215092118/http://www.mc79hockey.com/
Nic Dowd says “hi” 😀
https://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20232024&positions=c&team=wsh&group_by=player_season_team
Some chatter recently about Justin Barron.
He just signed in Montreal 2X$1.115 million
A strong likely comp for the Broberg extension.
Yup. The Oilers may feel they have to squeeze a little harder but that number pretty much surrounds it.
If they want to get compliant without any trades or LTIR, they need to sign Broberg/Holloway for an aggregate of $1,920,000 – doable if they squeeze them on one year deals.
I think they want/plan to sign them each for 2-years, they will get huge value out of both, but, of course, that means something has to break on cap out.
Joey Legs was an interesting prospect to follow. A bigger Brad Hunt, who put up similar AHL numbers but never could crack the NHL lineup.
For those who watched OKC/BAK closely in that era, any recollection of his game that held him back from the NHL?
Undersized chaos, has enough talent to get part time gig work
The young man is trending well and is though highly within the org (from what I can tell).
At the same time, while there has been some posts about him being on the team this year, I don’t think the org has that time line proposes.
Just yesterday, on Oilers Now, Keith Gretzky, while glowing about Wanner, did speak about him need much more time.
If Wanner sees NHL ice this season, he has either spiked, injuries have flattened the team, or it’s late-season cup of coffee. I don’t see anyone arguing against it, to be honest.
Who plays more NHL games for the Oilers over the course of the next three seasons, Phil Kemp or Josh Brown?
3-seasons being the term on Brown’s contract.
Probably Josh Brown.
The Oilers are worse without Kulak unless the acquired RD is a sure thing.
If the acquired right D is not a sure thing, then Broberg still plays the right side, with Kulak (or Nurse).
Noone has identified a sure thing at right D yet.
His name is Rasmus Andersson and you will not like the acquisition price.
That said, the Oilers have 50 games to see Broberg play 2RD and my guess is he acquits himself nicely and the transaction with the Calgary Flames (spits) won’t be necessary.
Are you as sure about Rasmus Andersson as you were about Jacob Chychrun?
Anderson rarely plays more against elites than any other tier of competition. The one time in recent seasons (2020/21) he did, he was underwater in every -rel category, and a staggering -14.3% in DFF%-rel. He had one decent year in 2021/22.
I get that he’s at the right age to mature with the core. I get he’s got a great contract. He’s right handed and a right prick to play against. Good skater. He also takes bad penalties. He’s defensively suspect against top quality opposition.
Is this a case of thinking he’s ready to take the next step, while playing with better QoT?
Genuinely curious, because you’ve been stumping for him (along with defmn) for a while now. I just don’t see it from here.
I think you just supplied the rationale for Andersson being a good target.
And remember, we’d be asking him to play 2RD.
Why? Because he gets overwhelmed by top tier competition, on an annual basis?
Or because he’s on a shitty team and would have better run support in EDM?
No need to be obtuse, I’m genuinely trying to have a conversation and provide an opportunity to be converted.
Personally speaking, I think Neal Pionk to be a superior defenseman and target.
Why would Chevy trade Pionk?
It’s a fair question. They’re in their window, chips are all in so it’s definitely unlikely we’d have the pieces even if Chevy could be convinced.
Pionk is one year from UFA. Maybe he’s looking to move from a pretender to a contender so Chevy needs to extract some value for the asset before losing him for nothing in free agency.
Just spitballing here.
Fair enough. Since you answered my question I will answer yours about Andersson.
Remember the discussion a few days ago where a poster suggested that Draisaitl’s ‘underlying numbers’ indicated that re-signing him for big bucks was a bad idea?
I try to be respectful of the arguments here that rely on stats but that is my answer.
And they are even less reliable for dmen than scoring forwards imo.
Based on my recollection of reading Woodguy post about these things, QoT is a primary driver of on ice results, especially with -RC.
So my guess is you see enough in Andersson to believe he’ll improve on a better team? Which is a fair take (as I’ve mentioned earlier). He’s just entering prime age.
And yes, fancy stats illuminate defensemen much less than forwards so there’s plenty of voodoo in their interpretation.
I think my bias comes from the recent playoff series between EDM and CGY where he was routinely victimized, and goaded into poorly timed penalties. Sometimes the eye test can be overwhelming with regards to recognizing/overcoming a bias. That’s why I’m trying to keep an open mind about what he can offer if acquired.
Not my first choice but as JC says there are a lot of limiting factors on better options.
The question is: “who is better suited to play 2RD than Ceci?”.
The answer may be (and probably is) Broberg. If not, Stan Bowman will have an RD as his priority in trade toward the deadline. It’s clear to me, in spite of the argument you present, that Rasmus Andersson is an upgrade on Cody Ceci.
Now, are there better defensemen than Andersson? Of course. Are they available in trade and are their cap hits manageable? I’m less inclined to think so.
I believe Winnipeg will be competing for the playoffs and are unlikely to trade Pionk, but we’ll see how the season unfolds.
My arguments for Andersson over Pionk are: a) production & usage, b) cap hit and term, and c) size & physicality. Andersson outranks Pionk by these key metrics.
And if you want to circle back to comments made about Jacob Chyckrun in Spring, 2023 he appeared to be the best available defenseman at a time Brett Kulak was playing 2LD. Certainly Ekholm was a better fit, and I don’t think any casual fan could’ve conjured the Barrie for Ekholm transaction. But IMO, Chyckrun would’ve improved the Oilers D as he would’ve slotted Kulak down to 3rd pair.
That’s a fair assessment. I suppose I was looking for best possible upgrade at 2RD.
I do wonder if there’s any chance a three way trade would be possible to bring one of Pionk or Andersson to EDM, and send Ceci+ out. Considering the politics between the two Alberta teams, my guess is that’s what would be required to get any kind of significant piece out of our southern neighbour.
Not for nothing, but I actually did suggest Ekholm as a better target than JC around Christmas prior to the trade. Definitely didn’t postulate the cost, or even that a trade would be made, just that he was my ideal version of a reliable defender. Compared to a defense optional, infirm, Chychrun.
One more reason. The only GM’s who would be willing to trade his 2RD would be those who are looking at a rebuild that stretches past the point of the player reaching UFA status. That severely limits the field.
Weegar and Miramanov look better. I’d have a go for the Russian, not that it works out for the Oilers ever
With Conroy having recently traded to acquire Miromanov, why would he send away a capable RHD on a bargain contract ($1.25MM) with another year beyond this upcoming season?
He wouldn’t if he was sane. That may not be the case
The 27 year old who’s played a total of 49 NHL games over his last 3 seasons in North America? He’s just a few months younger than Andersson. My goodness…
I dont know why anyone would suggest trading kulak over ceci.
kulak skates better, passes better, has better positioning, and consistently elevates in the playoffs, on a great contract.
You trade Kulak over Ceci if you acquire a young RD – Barron was the example yesterday – that you think, but don’t know, can grow into the 2RD spot during the season. That moves Broberg to his natural side while hedging the bet on the young, unproven RD.
It is all hypothetical, of course, but the role of the GM isn’t to acquire the best players but to build the best team. There is overlap in those two objectives but they are not always the same.
One only trades Kulak if the Oilers acquire A SURE THING at right D. Otherwise the Oilers are worse.
Broberg plays #2RD or #3RD if the new guy is NOT a sure thing. And Kulak remains #3LD.
Except sure things cost assets and money that they don’t have. Bro isn’t a sure thing at RD. Lindstrom is free outside of a cheap contract. The stats say he was pretty good, small sample, has size, is mobile, gaps well, is defensive minded, and some puck skills
If they keep Ceci and Kulak it will cost another player at some point. I’d rather try something different back end – because it doesn’t work over seasons outside of the top pair – and keep Kane for playoffs. Sure could have used him healthy against the Panthers
As LT said below the mission now is finding these lower cost helpful players. Lindstrom can go down if it doesn’t work and they still have 6 D and NHL experience on the farm, and can find more cheap ones if they want to
and, in my opinion, there is almost certainly not going to be a “sure thing RD” added prior to camp.
To the extent a d-man is traded out, be it Kulak or Ceci, its going to, at least partially, be in the name of cap compliance.
As I’ve posted, there is a path to cap compliance with no trades and not LTIR but it waives both Perry and Ryan and has Broberg/Holloway for a combined $1,920,000, so one year deals. I’m not sure they plan on waiving Perry and I think they are looking for 2-year deals for the RFAs so my “path forward” is not feasible in that regard.
If they are moving out one of those d-men in connection with cap compliance, well, its tough to imagine a “sure thing RD” coming back.
On the other hand, maybe Bowman wants to “make a splash trade” early?
The only path to a ‘sure thing’ 2RD that I see is to trade both Kulak and Ceci and even that is difficult from a cap perspective unless they know Kane is going on LTIR before the season starts.
Unlikely but it is the only way to do it that I can see for them to make the money work.
I would suspect that they will wait and make a decision based on how the team plays, who is healthy, and who becomes available. 12 Oilers make 3M or more and one unfortunate injury makes it pretty easy to be cap compliant.
I was dreaming the other day. How about Kulak & Ceci to NYI for Ryan Pulock.
LT and others – what do you think is the most likely timeframe we can keep the band together given the massive cap hits for Nurse, Bouch, McD and Drais in two years? Add Hyman and Nuge to the mix and that is probably close to $60M for 6 players. Seems a bit high when compared to similarly constructed teams e.g. Tampa, Leafs
Trade Kane when his NMC eases, do the same with Nurse. Add players like Savoie and O’Reilly whenever possible, sign Euro free agents. They are going to be top heavy, but signing Leon is a priority. Kids coming out of entry deals should expect the minimum and the fourth line/third pair are going to be inexpensive. I’m not going to say they can’t do it, because they have no choice.
Things are further complicated by having to replace Ekholm at 1LD.
Given cap inflation that could command a very tidy sum.
Skinner will also need a new contract.
Broberg is going to be cheaper than Ekholm for the next say five years and Nurse’s contract isn’t budging.
The fixes are in house and well known.
There is a growing body of evidence that Nurse is not a legit #1LD and aging curves suggest he won’t be that 3 seasons from now.
At the same time, there is no evidence that Broberg will become one.
Bouchard is a #1D full stop. He’ll lift boats, that’s what #1D do.
Nurse will be fine with Bouchard once he finishes his apprenticeship this season with Ekholm.
That’s a risky bet.
Not really. All three men were drafted for those roles and have developed just fine.
Bouchard has long been the goods and I’ve long been more bullish than most. As the past season wore on he got more and more comfortable on the defensive side of things. He started trusting his reads better and began using his size/strength more effectively. As the playoffs wore on he was increasingly taking the load off Ekholm while driving play offensively.
There’s another leg up with his defensive play that I’m sure we’ll see this season. It really had more to due with gaining man strength vs anything specific but the playoffs showed he’ll be a force for a good long while.
Nurse will benefit from Bouchard’s attributes more than anyone else. A guy who’s physically capable of breaking cycles, skating the puck out and passing will give Nurse a break from having to do everything like he does with Ceci, Vinny or Kulak.
Broberg clearly has the physical tools to be a very good defenseman for a very long time. I have deep reservations about playing him on his offside, but as a LHD he’ll patrol the line for a long long time to come. By the end of Ekholm’s contract you’ll have a very effective duality for LHD with him and Nurse.
I’ve also been long the opinion that forwards matter quite a bit when it comes to dmen stats. The forward upgrades happened early this offseason and I’m happy as a clam with the additions of Skinner and Arvidsson.
Either by happenstance or subtlety Coach KK did seem to run some lineup matches from time to time, usually against good teams. More often than not Leon drew the short end of the straw and more often than not the results in the fancies weren’t pretty. I don’t need to see the per 60’s here, yes the sample sizes are small, yes that matters, but it also matters that they kept happening against really good teams in both regular season and playoffs. Leads me to think the Coaches knew what they were doing when they wanted to keep the Twins apart.
With better wingers Leon is much more likely to put up better possession fancies and more o-zone time. This will lighten the load on McD’s line to “always,” outperform and may just loosen Coach KK’s desire to create a Five Man Super Unit in order to do that.
More time with better forwards will float Dmen stats and the biggest beneficiary of that is going to be Nurse and whoever his partner is and yes that could include Ceci. The regression will be quite stark this season assuming the forwards manage to gel and I don’t doubt they will.
Chelios, another fitness demon, played into his 40’s. Elite skating D routinely play into their late thirties.
Yeah I have zero concerns about Nurse’s aging curve. Anything and everything else? Sure. But the guy has miles and miles left in him.
I can see Ekholm taking a healthy cut on a two year contract after this one to continue playing.
They need to get younger and cheaper on line 3 & 4 and #4-6D. Ceci and Kulak are too expensive. So is Nurse if he doesn’t take over 1LD.
They should be just fine with 5% increase in the cap yearly until the end of the current CBA as long as they do one thing – not overpay non-core/depth players and they have done so so far – example being letting Deharnais walk over an extra apx $500K and letting Foegele go. Henrique could have been a risky re-sign at his age but only 2 years and with a discount to market.
They knew that the likes of McLeod was going to need a raise come next season and moved that for a higher potential player with 3 full years of ELC coming.
There is room.
Let’s run some numbers for 2025-26.
1st some context.
I did not trade anybody with a contract already in place for 25-26.
I signed Broberg & Holloway this summer for two years each. Broberg at $1.25M and Holloway at $.85M. Just my estimates.
So I start the season with a known payroll based upon signed contracts with
the following roster – and, yes, I know there will be trades, injuries etc.. This is just based upon what is currently signed.
Kane, McDavid, Hyman, Nuge, Arvidsson, Henrique, & Janmark are my known forward group. Those 7 account for $36,700,000 in cap space.
I signed Draisaitl for $13.25M, Holloway signed for two years so he is still at $.85M. I slotted Savoie in at 3RW at his known contract number of $.866667M and re-signed Philp for the 4C spot at $.85M for a total of $15,836.667 for 11 forwards.
I then allotted $1.65 to sign a 12th & 13th forward for a total of $54,186,667.
On defence I have Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak still on contract for a total of $18M. I signed Bouchard for $8.9, Broberg still has one more year on his $1,25M I gave him this summer and I slotted in Wanner at his known $.828333 as the 3RD while budgetting $.8M for a 7th dman. Total comes to $29,778,333.
Skinner & Pickard are set at $3.6.
The Campbell buyout costs $2.3M and there are no overages or bonuses.
Total cap hit when added is $89,865,000 which leaves me with $3,135,000 on my projected $93M cap limit for the season based upon the info that the cap could have been higher this year based upon revenues but was restrained by the 5% increase noted in the CBA.
I would note that this is all hypothetical. I don’t expect it to play out like this but this is what is in place plus what I estimate could happen without trades – which, of course, there will be.
I will do 2026-27 when I get some time and after everybody tells me how my estimates are too low. 😎
This is great and thanks for the work! The CBA was signed when the league was carrying around the dead weight in Arizona. Given the chatter around the season ticket drive in Utah and with Chicago set to step back into non-speed bump territory, I can’t think of a big revenue team who isn’t in a win now window or working towards one. Add in the Canadian media deal coming up and revenues should be on an upswing in quite a big way.
Two quibbles, both minor but also
major.
With your figures I think Leon comes in a bit lower and Bouchard comes in a touch higher, but only if he starts PKing this season. Another benefit of Bouchard PKing is that it could lessen the load on Ceci allowing him to be more effective should they decide to keep him.
I know the numbers floating around and I know OPs opinion on the Drai contract but call it a feeling. Connor while still getting paid, won’t need to go all out for his next major deal despite deserving every penny. Call it the Crosby and the Kucherov effect.
A thing I’m watching for this year is how the Coaches manage ice time/games amongst the older fellas in preparation for a long playoff run. Janmark, Brown, Ceci, Henrique, Perry, Kane, even Nuge and/or Kulak will benefit from a game off here and there.
Thanks for the feedback. I got dragged away for the day and just got back so maybe I will do my 2026-27 spreadsheet the next time the subject comes up but this team, while not flush with extra cash, is over the hump after this coming season imo. At least as long as they don’t make any more major errors. I can easily see the cap rising another $4M given all the things that are on the horizon.
thank you for the TOI info LT.
It is interesting to me that a lot of people think Phil Kemp could pass brown and stecher on the depth chart, i just really do not see it.
While he has a lot to like about his game at the AHL level i dont think he has the skating mobility, or the offensive prowess to make it at the NHL.
Wanner to me is close if not already past Kemp, wanner has the size, skating, and has some sneaky offensive skills although he needs to work on that aspect.
I am kind of surprised Kemp signed a two year deal at his age with the Condors and no NHL time. Perhaps he’s resigned to an AHL career with a possible few callups
On RW.
Could Lindstrom be to us what the benoit was and became to the leafs? as far as we will try him and see where it goes and they surprise slightly? maybe even step up.
Lindstrom played a minute less a game at evens than Ceci. But none of his teams have used him on PK. This leads me to think they aren’t doing anything, except, Kulak had less PK TOI/GP than Bro
If they don’t like Bro RD maybe they move Kulak because of having 4 RD if Ceci stays and PK TOI. A mistake to me
The organization does not think that Wanner is close to NHL ready – Keith Gretzky said pretty much that yesterday. They love Wanner but think he continues to be quite “raw” – Gretzky’s word.
If you want to talk about “sneaky offensive skills” – that applies to Kemp as well who makes a good first pass and has an under-rated shot.
Why would they sign Stecher & Brown if they thought Kemp was ready for NHL action?
Always ensure to have “veteran cover” and have the prospect beat out the vet for the job. They may think he’s ready but we have no certainty, he hasn’t played defence in the NHL yet.
Both Stecher and Brown can be in the AHL with a remaining cap hit of $0.
I would suggest that Kemp is competing with Brown – Stecher is likely ahead of both on the depth chart and is a very different player
It will be interesting to see what they do, if anything. From yesterday LT did a piece on Gustav Lindstrom and Evilas also ran across him
Over the last few seasons that haven’t gone as we hoped, last one being the closest of course, I have become convinced that it is better to use a better player than a more experienced player. The reason being the more experienced less skilled player, or old player, will also make mistakes, in fact may be more likely to in critical moments when the pressure is higher because they just aren’t as good at the game, or time is limiting them too much
The Panthers used Forsling more than OEL or Kulikov, the Oilers probably would have done the opposite. Someone mentioned the other day the better teams take more risks, calculated ones. Small samples are the issue here, but that issue means ‘under the radar’ and less expensive. Stecher was very good with all the LD he played with by the math, as was Lindstrom. Better than some older D we have still
I say go for it, and if it’s a problem fix it in season. It’s smarter and has more potential upside than sticking with what hasn’t been good enough, and gives enough time for players to settle in, and for coaches to assess. For those that want Bro RS
Ek Bouch
Nurse Bro
Kulak Lindstrom/Stecher
Brown
I would do it
Ek Bouch
Nurse Lindstrom
Bro Stecher/Brown
Because Lindstrom will be 26 and Bro is 23, and has the right skill set for Nurse. If it changes it changes, but that’s how I would start. Would help the cap out a ton
i wonder if they bring in lindstrom / vrana on PTO?
both would help make camp a bit more interesting.
Not sure how they fit another forward that’s not a RS bottom 6 C
Unless there is a true change in how the team operates, which may be, I think the lack of PK would be a problem for Lidstrom. It would mean a LS D playing Des’ PK TOI
broberg played des pk toi in the playoffs to great success.
Oilers used Broberg, the younger dman, and Holloway, during the SCF. Both their TOI was higher than many more veteran players. How is that the Oilers doing opposite than what the panthers did with Forsling?