Lots of conversation about Leon Draisaitl’s contract on the worldwide web yesterday. My own feeling on the issue is that the Oilers should go long. I understand that a 35-year old Draisaitl won’t be the player we’ve been watching since Halloween 2015, and I know the cap will be a massive issue come summer 2025. I still think the organization would be wise to lock him up.
The cap issue is real, but by the fall of 2025 the team can offload Evander Kane (he’ll have one year at $5.125M), Cody Ceci (his $3.25M deal will be off the books), Jeff Skinner’s one year ($3M deal) will expire. Plus, James Neal ($1.916M) will mercifully come off the books about one decade after Peter Chiarelli traded Taylor Hall to make room for Milan Lucic.
The gap between Leon’s $8.5M current deal and the new one could be $5M (or more, or less) and it seems to me the team has multiple ways to get it done.
The bigger issue is aging veterans who remain on the books. Edmonton is getting old in a quick hurry. The roster holds several men in foundation roles (Hyman, Nuge, Kane, Arvidsson, Skinner, Henrique, Ekholm) who are 30+ and that’s a large number for a team that has yet to win Stanley.
That’s why the trade for Matt Savoie and the recharged procurement department (including the draft) is so important. You need talent to trade at the deadline, but Savoie being on hand to replace Arvidsson is a big damn deal. There is urgency but the Oilers have to take care of the future, too.
The way forward is signing Draisaitl and procuring more Savoies.
Noon to 2pm on Sports 1440, we’ll talk MLB post-deadline (100 trades! not really but it seemed like it), Olympics, Elks, Oilers and more. Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal will be on with us to drop wisdom upon us and we’ll have Dunkin’ with Declan and plenty of chatter plus your comments. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ active summer brings back a flood of memories
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5668474/2024/07/31/edmonton-oilers-offseason-memories/
Since Barron was discussed at some length the other day I thought this article might be of interest. Gives some insight as to Canadiens depth coming up behind him.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/canadiens-xhekaj-barron-must-prove-theyre-worth-more-than-new-contracts/
Just assuming Tre Ford won’t be whining about short weeks
I hope he crushes it. Then sign Rourke as well
Do the right thing and end the curse.
PuckIQ is down. Grrr. Damnable Utah contest? Or updating?
5v5 goal scoring, past 3 years. League rank, name, number of goals:
4. McDavid: 73
7. Hyman: 70
13. Skinner: 65++
26. Draisaitl: 58
96. Kane: 41 (161 GP)
96. Henrique: 41++
114. Foegele: 38#
149. Nugent-Hopkins: 33
188. Arvidsson: 28 (161 GP)++
202. McLeod: 27#
234. Ryan: 24
247. Perry: 23
The league has played 246 games in that span, so Kane and Arvidsson are scoring at a much higher pace than others at their rank.
It looks to me like the Oilers have added 1 elite goal scorer (Skinner) another 1st line scorer (Arvidsson) and a 2nd line scorer (Henrique). They lost a 2nd line scorer and a 3rd line scorer, while gaining one of the top offensive prospects in the league.
To top it off, if Kane can get healthy they’ll have another 1st line scorer in their bottom-6.
This could be the best offensive lineup the league has seen since the nineties.
++ new to the roster (or first full season).
# no longer on the roster.
With Nuge-McDavid-Hyman and
Skinner-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
The Oilers have two elite 1st lines.
I made a comment below about a strong argument can be made the team is stronger and easier to cap manage if they can find the right deal for Leon. #26 5v5 after 3 years doesn’t seem worth probably approaching 14M if I’m impartially crunching numbers. True he hasn’t always had the greatest help, but still gets Connor time, and that size contract needs to be for a stone cold killer. Skinner was on a crap team
Even Strength Reg Season
21/22 Leon had Connor on his second most common line 162 min
22/23 Connor on his most common line by far 307 min
23/24 Connor on his most common line by far 295 min
Hmm
If you look at all goals scored over the last three season.
Oilers are number 1 for goals for and #16 for goals against.
Panthers are #2 for goals for and #9 for GA.
It feels like Foegele and McLeod helps more the GA gap.
Enough with the 2-1 wins during the regular season this mid Eighties offensive juggernaut is going to curb stomp teams this season. They will add 40 plus goals to last seasons total. Booook it Dano.
Alberta Day of Caring for wildfire victims.
https://give.redcross.ca/page/24AWA-ADOC
Each $1 donated is matched by both the Federal and Alberta governments.
Let’s each do our part for our fellow Albertans.
I suppose the team “can”, but I’m doubtful there will be many, if any, interested parties. I don’t think it’s wise to be relying on offloading Kane as the solution to the cap problem.
To me if you can’t trade a long established 20 G scorer (23/24 15 at 5v5) with his skill set at 5.125, you may be in the wrong position. There haven’t been any abnormal issues in the 3 years. He’s better than Wilson who makes 6.5M
If he gets healthy I wouldn’t trade him too soon. They lack enough truculence still
This. Kane has averaged 29 goals per 82 games over his entire career, and 32 goals per 82 over the past 3 years.
Any GM who can’t get a decent return for a power forward with those numbers and that contract doesn’t deserve an NHL job.
If he wants out he could return a nice RD. Then they could clear cap out and still be better
Sure there’s that, but then there’s also all the complaints about his speed, turnovers and Dzone coverage. And his injuries.
And Fall 2025 means he’s another year older.
Kane, of course, comes with other issues for a lot of GMs. There is a reason he returned to the Oilers two years ago after hitting free agency.
True but it’s been 3 years now no issues
And a bunch of those “issues” turned out to be false allegations. But somehow they’re still top of mind for many fans.
We never really know the details in situations like this. I just think a lot of GMs wrote him off after the San Jose debacle and that they would have to have incentive to change their minds. Not that it can’t be done but that trading him is not as simple as listing his goals and point totals.
Personally I would keep him if he is healthy. This team is in need of what he brings.
Probably more to do with skin tone and reporters inventing Bullshit than anything else.
I don’t think Las Vegas casinos are all that influenced by “skin tone” when they sue people for not paying their debts.
I love what Kane has done for the Oilers but I think even Kane would admit that his younger years were somewhat tumultuous and that he was the author of a lot of the narrative that emerged.
Kane was seriously hurt a few year ago and it’s amazing he’s returned somewhat to his former self. For Kane who’s a warrior to miss the last few games tells me he’s dealing with something long term. Correct me if I’m wrong would it not be ideal for the Oilers to be under the cap with Kane for game 1 then Kane hits LTIR and deals with his injury which I suspect is long term.
being in LTIR is never ideal but there are ways to maximize it and the Oilers could get apx $5MM of cap space but couldn’t practically use it unless Kane was out for the entire year and they also wouldn’t accrue any space and, for any player acquired in-season would need to fit in their entire AAV and they would also have issues calling Savoie up as his bonuses would count against the cap unless he was on the opening roster which would be tough to do, etc. etc.
Injuries have obviously become a strategy focus point. Vegas and the Bolts recieved the memo but apparently Holland didn’t check his mail.
I just had a radom thought; not sure if it’s worth sharing but I thought I’d throw it out there.
I’ve always been an Oilers fan, but I’ve also always had a few players outside of the Oilers that I’ve loved. When universes align, and somehow these players end up wearing Oilers silks, it’s always exciting. Just wanted to list a few players that I was ecstatic that we traded for.
1.Petr Klima. My absolute favourite player of all time. Loved him, loved watching him. I have a Tampa jersey just because of him. I met him a couple of times, and it was a thrill for me.
2.Janne Ninnimaa. I miss this man every day. Loved watching him as an Oiler.
3.Cujo…I was enraged that he went to TO and he was dead to me for a long time.
There are others, but these are the names that spring to mind. I recall, every time the rumours came up, getting excited that it could happen. It comes to mind, because Adam Henrique is a player I followed for years, and I’m absolutely chuffed that he re-signed…if I had LT money, I’d buy a jersey. 🙂 Same goes for Skinner…how the heck did we grab that guy!…Just amazing. GM aside, I’m so excited for training camp!
The Billy Guerin acquisition made me Whoop! in the middle of the street.
Plus the bonuses for Brown & Perry that add up to another $3.55M. As I think I showed in my breakdown of the cap implications for Draisaitl and Bouchard it really shouldn’t be that much of a problem.
============================
Let’s run some numbers for 2025-26.
1st some context.
I did not trade anybody with a contract already in place for 25-26.
I signed Broberg & Holloway this summer for two years each. Broberg at $1.25M and Holloway at $.85M. Just my estimates.
So I start the season with a known payroll based upon signed contracts with
the following roster – and, yes, I know there will be trades, injuries etc.. This is just based upon what is currently signed.
Kane, McDavid, Hyman, Nuge, Arvidsson, Henrique, & Janmark are my known forward group. Those 7 account for $36,700,000 in cap space.
I signed Draisaitl for $13.25M, Holloway signed for two years so he is still at $.85M. I slotted Savoie in at 3RW at his known contract number of $.866667M and re-signed Philp for the 4C spot at $.85M for a total of $15,836.667 for 11 forwards.
I then allotted $1.65 to sign a 12th & 13th forward for a total of $54,186,667.
On defence I have Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak still on contract for a total of $18M. I signed Bouchard for $8.9, Broberg still has one more year on his $1,25M I gave him this summer and I slotted in Wanner at his known $.828333 as the 3RD while budgeting $.8M for a 7th dman. Total comes to $29,778,333.
Skinner & Pickard are set at $3.6.
The Campbell buyout costs $2.3M and there are no overages or bonuses.
Total cap hit when added is $89,865,000 which leaves me with $3,135,000 on my projected $93M cap limit for the season based upon the info that the cap could have been higher this year based upon revenues but was restrained by the 5% increase noted in the CBA.
I would note again that this is all hypothetical. I don’t expect it to play out like this but this is what is in place plus what I estimate could happen without trades – which, of course, there will be.
There is very solid work and, even if I quibble on a couple of contracts being too low very informative and helpful to discuss going forward.
Thank you.
For my quibbles: Holloway will likely only come in for that amount for one-year (I think 2-years will/would be over a million) I would think and Bouch at $8.9MM would mean a regression likely, or a 2-year bridge.
All of his peers are making in the $8 – 9.5M range with term, and you think Bouchard gets $8.9M on a 2-year bridge? Love me some Bouch, but that’s a little extreme.
Fox: $9.5M x 7
McAvoy: $9.5M x 8
Makar: $9.0M x 6
Heiskanen: $8.45M x 8
Hughes: $7.85M x 6
I get that the cap has risen since these guys signed, but all these guys have a better 2-way game and none of them play with McDavid.
So while $8.9M might be a tad low for a long term contract, it’s in the range. Far more so than a $8.9M bridge would be.
3 Norris winners in there as well. 8 – 8.5 x 8 would be nice
All but impossible to compare Bouchard to any of those since most were signed directly after their ELCs expired.
That would suggest they have become, for the most part, extreme value deals.
For example, Makar has only 3 seasons left at $9 million while in Dom’s recent efficiency rankings pegs his actual current value at $13.9 million.
He has Hughes pegged at $14.8 value for the remaining 3 years on his deal.
You acknowledged cap inflation but that doesn’t fully capture the evolving market conditions especially the premium demanded by RHD.
If Makar and Hughes were up for renewal at the same time as Bouchard, I expect both would exceed a $12 million AAV so where does that leave Bouchard?
Remember when you said you would not trade Brogan Rafferty for Ethan Bear or Bouchard. Hahahahha.
Great, thanks. I think 26/27 is when it gets interesting. Signed at this point assuming Drai does leaves Drai, Hyman, Nuge, Janmark for 25.325 at your Drai number
Nurse, Brown, Bro for 11.5 at your Bro number, goalies both UFA. 2.6M for Jack. 7/23 at 39.425. The cap should be 98M, leaving 58.575M to sign 16 players including Connor and Bouch
Connor will probably again be team friendly, let’s say 15M, Bouch as well at 10M, 33.575 left for 14 players including 2 goalies. If goalies are 6M, 27.575 left. But they need 2 top 6 F, 2 top 4D, and 8 more players
Jackson seems aware, as he should be, that they need young skill. Savoie has way more value because of this than McLeod even though he’s not made it yet, because he has legit top 6 talent. If Holloway can pop as a two way guy scoring enough, problem solved top 6
On D Bro on a good contract is also very important. This is why the Nurse contract and dead cap are so damaging. Bouch Bro and Holloway should all be or have been locked up early and long. maybe the latter two will be, and the new guys can find their helpful cheap players and clear enough cap for it, like The Dys did signing 18G scoring Sprong for .975. It should be possible if there’s a mind for it because players want to come
Hopefully Wanner is ready by then, I think it’s likely given his quick progression. If Ekholm is still healthy enough and signs cheap which I can see (36YO then), that’s 5 D, 3 LS 2 RS. Akey may be in the convo then as well
But as you said that is assuming no trades, and I can see Nurse being moved but his full NMC doesn’t go to a 10 team no trade until 27/28. Hyman’s kicks in 26/27 but his contract will be great value at that cap level. It will get more interesting if Nuge or Hyman aren’t still at a top 6 level in a few years
Bouch at 8.9 LMAO
If it doesn’t start with a 10 he should fire his agent.
but, but, but, Ty Smith, part of his draft cohort that was leaving him behind just signed for a 2-way deal, for league min but nice AHL salary of $200K.
Bouchard is likely to start at 11.X percent of cap.
But imagine… he scored at a 105 point pace in the playoffs, 32 points in 25 games. If he nets 100 points over 82 games, that seems likely to land him the Norris. What percent of cap does that get him?
8 years is a long time for someone the age of Leon. I love the guy but we can’t forget he seems to run out of gas in the playoffs. Sometimes because of injury and sometimes because of too much ice time. Years 6, 7, and 8 could be frustrating.
Part of this is being over played in the season. After the start, Oil were chasing the whole way and 97/29 played big minutes. Oilers should be rolling 4 lines all year, keeping TOI around 20 min for the top guns IMO. More if lots of PP, but 5v5 keep it balanced.
Leon played 20:13 per game for the last 20 games and 19:56 for the last 10 games…….
You have to take the bad years with the good, or some other team will.
Team confirmed he was playing with 2 separate injuries in the last postseason, and his wingers were middling at best as per usual. Looking forward to him finally having a couple snipers this season.
5th overall in NHL career playoff PPG, so clearly the bottom line production doesn’t jibe with the narrative on this player. By the numbers, Leon is a playoff beast.
Suspect LT would call this the Frank Mahovlich effect.
I agree with Sierra. Leon is a great player, but availability is all. If he and the team can’t figure out him being healthy enough through the playoffs nothing else matters. Lighting up the first round or two (easier comp) and then fading out isn’t helping Cup aspirations. Bad luck ends at some point
His fault or not he was a non factor against Dallas and Florida and last year got 1 assist in the last four games against the Knights. Against Colorado he had 1A in the first 3 games, they went down 3-0. He hit 4A, but 3 were in the last game that they also lost. He and Connor were below GF% 50 All strength and 5v5 that series, but Connor got goals and/or assists in the 3 games they scored in
They will sign him, but a strong argument could be made that given the most important results over 3 playoffs, in the right trade they could make a stronger roster, deeper and easier to manage the cap with
It’s unlikely the team will be an elite cup contender in the final 3 years of the McDrai contracts, but that’s ok.
Crosby, Malkin, Kopitar, and Ovechkin are still significant players.
The Oilers will likely still have one of the best bass and percussion sections in the league.
Broberg Bouchard
Nurse Wanner
Skinner.
None of those players are on cup contending teams anymore though…..
Not through any fault of their own, except maybe Ovechkin.
If he’s not signing before the year starts then it’s up to our fearless leader Bowman to initiate a blockbuster soon after. Allowing Leon who would have half the G.M’s in the league drooling over walk into free agency is a firing offence of both Bowman and Jackson.
Moving that size of contract with a 10 team trade list late in the off season pretty much guarantees disappointment in the return.
There is zero indication that a contract won’t be done before the season – you never know but nothing indicates that.
If it does suprisiingly happen, its not going to be easy to trade an $8.5MM player on the even of the season (with a full NMC) and get value.
There is every argument to keeping the player and, you know, trying to win the Stanley Cup this season.
If he walks for “nothing”, well, $13.5MM in cap space is not really nothing!
Bowman makes me nervous. I do hope this is a G.M by committee. Do you know how long Bowman is signed for?
Don’t know for sure.
Stauff said “its not short term” but refuse to give the term.
Rumor has it 4 years.
There is little doubt that Jackson will be involved in all material player transactions – his “I’m an active CEO involved in the day to day” has meaning.
“but we can’t forget he seems to run out of gas in the playoffs”
I am sorry, but how can you possibly even think about typing this out for a player 5th (really 4th) in all-time points per game in the playoffs? Any perceived drop-off is him going from a pace, that at points was higher than Gretzky to his current position as merely 5th best of all time in the NHL. There is literally no one you could trade him for that would produce at a better clip than Drai in the playoffs.
This narrative is a weird one.
Should there be concern with injuries? It’s not a narrative to address Drai’s injuries in playoffs.
I must be too old school on this as normally this would only be a complaint if the player was missing games due to injury.
Back in the day, we had a term for the guy who played through injuries and showed up for their team every night. Warrior.
Except that Drai was a shadow of himself in the last couple of rounds this season – unlike 2022 when he was setting scoring records on one leg.
Checks notes.. Draisaitl ended the final 2 rounds still 4th on the team in scoring with 7pts, Hyman 9, Bouchard 12, McDavid 21.
Can’t hold McDavid going supernova..
.. His wingers being a bunch of puck allergic dependants..
..Magic feel good shots that mask a bum leg 100x better then compromised ribs..
..Nurse, Ceci and the coaching staff for all sucking farts when it comes to their triangle of fart..
.. Against him.
I don’t think so, as mentioned below, Drai already proved he can produce at a higher level than almost any player in the history of the NHL with one leg. Drai gets injured sure, but that also has to be examined through the lens of him playing so many games with so many prime minutes in a style that leverages his size advantage.
I don’t think there is any form of narrative out there of Drai being made of glass or injuy-prone but rather that he may be truly built like the old-school archetype of the big man that delivers no matter what his body may be enduring.
The guy elevates his game, like clock-work in the playoffs which considering his regular season performance is truly remarkable.
You lock Drai up for 8 years, for basically whatever he wants and you ride him and McDavid until they retire as Oilers IMO.
Anything else is just the boredom of summer creating alternative narratives for us to pass the time.
I believe he’s only missed 9 games due to injury in his whole career.
Tremendous earlier post as well.
Yeah, agreed.
Quit overplaying McDavid and Draisaitl during the regular season.
I don’t think he’ll accept much less than 8
Leon was on pace for playoff record scoring two years ago on one leg based on his brain, passing, and shot.
He’s also always added new elements to his game.
There’s every chance he’s still a star at 35. He’s built to be, that’s for sure.
That’s interesting. I see the opposite. To me he’s becoming very predictable, and spotty defensively. Sometimes makes a great D play, sometimes won’t skate back hard enough. He’s like left side Ovi
Leon always has been more dynamic than scorers like Ovi, Stamkos or Matthews.
Ovi had four seasons with > 50 assists.
Leon has had six seasons with >50 assists.
Leon averages about 17 more assists per season than Ovi and its likely to be quite a bit higher if the scoring wingers are as good at scoring as you’ve suggested in other posts.
Ovi has 9 50 goal seasons – I think that’s dynamic, no?
Prime Ovechkin was a much better player. Leon has the same talent level, but Ovi is a giant, was way faster, had more ways of attacking including rushes nobody could stop, shot from different areas including the point, and was an actual menace on the ice
Leon is mostly now the one shot and puck protection on the left half wall or left corner. He’s very good, great passer, but very predictable and because he doesn’t move around much so he often forces passes that get picked off, a lot. Drives me nuts
He scores but has never been a playmaker.
I put guys who score multiple 50 goal seasons and then add 60 assists to pad their teammates totals as more dynamic. Your mileage may vary.
Welcome aboard the Zub train, LT. He’s a helluva defenseman — I really think he’s the new Gudas.
What’s a realistic acquisition cost at the deadline, if Steady Steve were to make a trade?
A 1st, Broberg, Ceci and Lavoie for Zub with $1.35MM retained and a 5th?
I think that’s in the range, but Broberg will have a lot to say during the regular season about the value gap.
Yes, it’s painful. So it’s got to be close.
Ideally you’d like to see Broberg ascend to the point that we’re having an entirely different discussion at the trade deadline.
I’d resist adding Broberg to that package.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to drive Broberg to the airport.
All we have to offer is Holloway and or Broberg.
I’d hate to move either, but if someone like Zub (and that contract) was available…
I just can’t fathom Ottawa trading Artem Zub. He’s their top RH defenseman. They’re in such a position of need at RD they lost a trade to get Nick Jensen.
If OTT is out of the playoff picture in February I could see them trading Jensen, although it’s tough to argue he’s an improvement over Ceci.
On this we’re aligned.
As I’ve been saying for the last few years, Zub was an (my) ideal target to acquire before his contract extension. At only $4.6MM he’s almost a unicorn considering the value he represents.
However, if he were to become available and we had the pieces to get it done, it would be foolish to not follow through.
a 1st, Ceci, Lavoie is MORE than enough. especially in light of OTT trading Chychrun for Jensen and a 3rd
Chychrun was a negative equity position. He and Zub aren’t in the same tier.
Don’t forget we’d need retention (at least $1.35MM), which would then continue for another two years past this upcoming season.
I think that is high. His best season is 25 PTS and 5G. Offense gets paid normally. He had 32 PIM in 69 games, Radko had 128 in 66, different animals. He’ll be 29 this season
Trading Bro (unless they don’t think he can take over 1/2 LD when Ek expires) would be really short sighted, just be looking for him then. They have more promising prospects at RD at the moment
I like the player, but you shouldn’t gut yourself for a solid defensive D. I don’t see anything about Hamonic but if he is good to go they do have 4 RD after getting Jensen
That means we’re probably in the ballpark then. If there’s no pain, it’s an NHL24 trade.
If you haven’t seen him play, watch some of his games. I was impressed in the covid year when we played them a ton in the North division. I’ve been pounding the table to acquire him since then, and people are finally catching on all these years later.
It’s less about points or PIMs and more about his ability to box out, close/maintain gaps, he’s gnarly and sneaky aggressive (fewer PIMs than someone who’s overt like Gudas), he can skate, and he can fire a first pass. He can PK, and we don’t need another PPer so he’s about as close to a perfect fit as I can find.
To pry him out it would be an overpay for sure
If for some reason they wanted to trade him now that Holland is gone and hopefully JJ watching over it shouldn’t be that heavy a cost
Some here have issues with Ceci, but someone in media can’t remember who said he has value around the league. Kulak would as well after two solid playoff runs. When Holland acquired Ekholm it seems to me he didn’t get enough value out of Barrie
At that time Barrie was running a PP and scoring well (finished 4 pts behind Josi and lost prime minutes post trade) playing two ways pretty well. That at the deadline has first round pick value usually
It is trades such as that one that serve to remind that the role of the GM is not just to acquire good players so much as it is to build winning teams.
Those two objectives often overlap but are not exactly the same thing. I think that is why so many GM’s who look like they know what they are doing falter once they get close to winning it all. They go for the shiny object rather than the fit that completes the puzzle.
Good take. Also gutting your team for any player other than someone other than an impact player is self defeating in the end, or leads that way
Barrie had 14 points at 5 on 5 in over 60 games and his most common icemates at forward were: Drai, McDavid, Hyman and Nuge.
I know he was doing OK on the PP but I don’t think he had a ton of value at $4.5MM with term.
That was a cap dump, at best with neutral value, in my opinion.
Good points but still. Other teams get good returns for players that look like Barrie often. A real weakness for Holland, as he showed in the Keith deal as well
Doesn’t Zub have term on his solid contract?
Not saying it can’t happen (i.e. Ekholm) but its not the type of deal we typically see at the deadline.
I am hopeful that Oilers are looking to “add” to the roster and not “upgrade”, I mean, I’m not convinced that Broberg won’t be a huge roster piece come March.
All hypothetical, of course, because I see no way that Staios would be interested but Ottawa really doesn’t need another LD with Chabot and Sanderson.
Holloway and adjust elsewhere for value would be the move I think.
You think he’s worth more than Ekholm?
I was spitballing to get LT’s take, who said he thinks it was in the range.
Some other points that come to mind about relative value to the Ekholm acquisition, in no order, would include: 28 years old, RHD, first pairing minutes at $4.6MMx3 (as I said in my post would also require at least $1.35MM x3 for retention, which has its own cost) compared to $6.25MMx3.5 (with 250k retained), and OTT just recommitted to Zub whereas Ekholm was mid deal on a team changing GM and looking to shake up their identity.
It was a rough guess, something to get some conversation going.
What would you hypothetically pay for Zub (or similar)?
Find the next Zub – not the last one 🙂
I’m a bit puzzled by the mystique of Gudas.
Good player and an SOB to play against, but the guy has never played 20 minutes per game in his career.
This past year in crap show Anaheim was the first time since 16-17 that Gudas played more than 18:00/game.
He’s had solid enough results, but he’s been playing 3rd pairing minutes for many years for three different teams before landing in Anaheim.
On Zub, there’s no question he’d be a great addition. Pretty sure he’s a better player than Gudas ever was. That said, my gut still says you’re overvaluing him somewhat. And valuation aside, it’s really tough to see a trade to bring him to bring him to Edmonton that would work for both teams.
When I started off looking for the next Gudas, with traits as you mentioned, Mayfield was the first guy I found.
Then we played Zub and OTT, what… seven times that one season? He immediately became my younger version of what LT was always on about as the type of player EDM needed. Nothing wrong with eclipsing the initial target.
And no, I don’t see a viable trade for both teams either. As I’ve said before, the trade to do so would have been before he was extended in OTT.
Mayfield remains somewhat interesting as well I guess, though very much from the ‘is he actually any better than Ceci?’ camp. Quite a poor last season though, and significant injury (plus age, contract, American).
I think I am maybe the only one here that is not that happy with Jackson’s work.
traded out 24/27 year olds that are big, fast, wanted to be here.
Skinner – one dimensional
Arvdisson – is injury prone
Stetcher – Meh
Brown – Meh
Perry- Meh
Bowman – Meh
we needed a 2 RHD and probably a better back up goalie and some more 5v5 scoring
Skinner and Arvidsson are strong 5v5 scorers, and far better players than McLeod and Foegele, just as Henrique still is. But older which isn’t a long term solution
I think they still need more functional sandpaper throughout. Foegele and Mcleod brought very little of that
As for the D, it will be interesting to see how or if they address that. I think that they need to get better, move the puck better, and tougher would help
At the end of the day, 3 players that had poor playoff results are now gone, and it was the second time, so not an overreaction
Bang on. If EDM is to win the Cup, there’s no room to be sentimental to under performers. Everyone has to row in the same direction, in tune, and on time.
Don’t disagree but I think that the McLeod had a strong 2023 playoffs despite not producing – he played increasingly tough minutes and spent alot of those minutes in the offensive zone – that was value even if they couldn’t piss a drop (Foegle was part of that as well).
And win their freakin one on ones!
Both McLeod and Foegele left us wanting more. And weren’t showing progress.
While age matters, I’d rather have the skill sets of Skinner and Arv for the next 2 years and re-evaluate.
There will be future McLeod’s and Foegele’s available when roster turnover is required.
I agree with the others – meh.
I don’t get the frustration with Pickard. He was 23rd in save percentage among goalies who played more than 3 games last season and was .915 in the playoffs (small sample but still good). He’s been a starter in the league before, put up decent numbers and he’s cheap. I don’t know who this mysterious “better” cheap goalie everyone is searching for but this seems to be an area we can wait on.
I think folks are excited about most acquisitions relative to where they will play on the Oilers and for the prices paid.
3 million for Skinner is unreal. Yes he is a fairly one dimensional but if he was a complete player he would not have been bought out/cost 3 million.
Stretcher as a 7/8th dman for 700k is great value.
I like the moves (sans Bowman) because JJ clearly understands relative value.
And team need.
Skinner’s one dimension is 5 on 5 goal scoring and Arvidsson is kind of like a mini-Hyman that has a high end one-timer and produces at 5 on 5.
Both those players are very likely to outperform their cap hits if they stay healthy.
They are also short term players, signed for 1 and 2 years, and likely replaced in the top 6/middle 6 by the likes of Savoie and Holloway as their contracts expire.
I think this is a great time to look to the future because the team is capable of winning right now. The hard part (legitimate contending roster) is done. Now its time to make moves to extend the window.
I wish they would take the Vegas approach and trade youth for prime aged players and let the useful but soon to be overpaid vets walk. Hanifin trade a prime example.
The issue with that would be getting a deadline player in his prime to sign here long term as it just isnt the same location-wise.
Signing the Henriques is great but we can agree as LT said these players are on the back nine.
Who else should the Oilers let walk? They did let some vets walk.
Nobody right now. I’m saying prime players keep the competitive window longer since the team is aged.
Eg. Vegas let Martinez walk and replaced him with Hanifin who’s 10 years younger and in the prime of his career by trading a first rounder in 2024 and a lower ceiling prospect than Hanifin. The Ekholm deal but in their mid-late 20’s. Say we churn Ekholm in 2 years, let him walk, and replace him with a deadline addition then sign him long.
You get to skip the line on all the bumps of a prospect who MAY turn into Ekholm for a guy with the pedigree of Ekholm. Good business provided your team is already a contender.
They kind of did that with:
1) McLeod out and Henrique in (although he’s not quite “prime aged” and got a great high potential cost-controlled asset in the process; and
2) Letting Vinny and Foegele walk.
I’m not sure trading youth for prime aged makes a ton of sense, I mean, this team is already “old” – the core are all prime or close to post-prime (except Bouchard – Broberg/Holloway not core yet).
How much more youth can they trade away? I mean, sure, they can trade Holloway, Broberg and Savoie for more established players but they need young and cheap players making impacts, no?
The point is to let aged vets move on and not pay sentimental contracts like what could have happened with Stamkos and Marchessault. Stamkos replaced with prime Guentzel who will likely provide more value per Dom.
1) Henrique is 34, this is not prime aged and is a cup chasing retirement contract. I like the Mcleod trade, which i’d say is youth for youth. Not the scenario i’m chasing.
2) Those are prime aged players 25-30 by my definition.
I think trading youth makes plenty of sense. As I said in a different reply, it skips the line. A first rounder (which as a contender means it will be later) and RHD ‘prospect’ who is the same age as Hanifin at 27 for a bonafide top 4D to replace Martinez is replacing the age decline with bonafide. They will get 5 to 6 years of contender quality from that contract.
Instead of hoping a kid can come in and inevitably takes his knocks (Broberg has a bright future, his development hasn’t been a straight line, like most prospects) you get the finished product. As LT says, young D will break your heart. But what if they break Calgary’s heart and then come to us fully formed?
Keep churning your lottery tickets for bonafides. It might hurt you once or twice, but it mostly wont if you’re not buying rentals and letting other salaries fall off around it.
And in other news, the Habs signed Guhle long, and I noticed he looks like Kevin Bacon’s son
Must be a game in that somewhere
Well, I guess there’s less than 6 degrees between them.
100%, if Leon wants 8 years, lock him up for 8 years.
If Leon wants $13.8MM for 8 years, you make it happen.
If that’s the deal, I’ll be happy to get it signed, I’ll be happy to have certainty that this elite player, and great dude, has signed for a total of 19 years with the Oilers.
At the same time, I won’t consider it the “ideal result” – I wont bitch and complain and I’ll be happy that its done but I’ve said for months and months that, for the Oilers, a 5-year term is likely best or, if its longer, the AAV should come down.
Leon is a stud. He is very likely going to produce 50G and 110+ point season in to his 30s but lets be honest here, there is a difference between 32-33 and 36-37 and those 35-38 years should come cheaper and reduce the AAV.
Don’t get me wrong, I won’t complain about anything that starts with a 13 (or, if you could imagine, 12), and I’m not going to criticize over $500K per year for a player of this magnitude but there are some results that are more ideal than others, right?
Trade protection is the biggest issue. At the end of the deal especially. I’m a believer in players getting paid what they should be. Teams though should not have to be locked into things with the only way out being a big penalty. It has to be a two way street, can’t live up to the contract, aren’t a good fit anymore, you can’t keep it or you have to move
Hopefully the next CBA makes it more fair
Sure, point is valid but, at the same time, I would be very surprised if the contract didn’t have a full NMC for the entire term.
The player and his agent would respond that he earned the right to be overpaid because the CBA puts restraints on his early years where market value assessment usually favours the team.
And I would respond to them, if it’s that bad, start your own league. I think the players have a great set up now. The owner takes the vast majority of the risk, and risk creating something is what should get paid more, but it doesn’t anymore
Some young players do outperform their ELCs, but for most they haven’t proven that it’s established levels, not sure how much they lose out on
I want Leon signed (for 8 years if necessary) by Aug 15, or traded
and you can have that opinion and its valid – I don’t share it in the least.