This is a passage from Harvest Moon, the post I deliver right after each season’s draft. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a terrific NHL player and I’ve enjoyed watching his NHL career over one dozen seasons. He is a two-way winger now, I think that’s the role he was made to play. So good. For his career, over 881 regular-season games, he is averaging 23-42-65 per 82GP.
The Nuge has always played in the shadow of someone. You know, 65 points per 82 games during an 11-year career is impressive no matter the era. Dave Keon was always my comparable, he averaged 25-37-62 during his storied career (much of it spent in a lower scoring era). Nuge was a good skater, but Keon was a ridiculous skater for his era and I expect if a 20-year Keon arrived on the scene today he could find his way.
Puck IQ doesn’t show Nuge’s entire career (lollygaggers!) but we get a clear view of his usage by viewing the charts from 2014+: Early on, he played way too much versus elites, but it is now a less ridiculous number. Through his career that Puck IQ measures, his goal share versus elites is 140-125, 53 percent.
Nuge is a complementary scorer, but he is a fantastic two-way talent. His stops and starts are exceptional, he’s never really out of the play and is most often ‘inside’ his mark. Nuge is ‘also in photo’ plenty, but that comes from playing against the best and you have to give the other man his due at times.
I wanted to spend a moment today appreciating the Nuge. In Oilers terms, his career has been spent as the forgotten one, the middle child, always below the fold. He a sublime talent, and he is my favourite player-type. If the Oilers never had Hall, Eberle, Leon and McDavid, the Nuge still would have been worth the price of admission. I hope he wins Stanley.
New for The Athletic: Why the Oilers’ farm team will fill a vital role in the 2024-25 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5678293/2024/08/04/oilers-nhl-ahl-2024-25/
Saw a BarDown video of Andrei Svechnikov practicing puck control drills with Yakupov.
I love it when Nuge scores.
He’s married no worries
Papa Nuge for the win.
Just imagine when he gets his old man strength.
Yesterday I posted some charts that showed significant improvement in Oilers defenders between the ’22-’23 and ’23-’24 regular seasons. Most notably, defenders did not post negative DFF shares last season, including against elites.
This success seems to be the product of players who made significant progress in the their development (Bouchard, Desharnais), as well as a coaching staff who was committed to regular pairings and roles for each player, and commitment to zone defence. These roles also translated into a very excellent penalty kill, and a first pairing that blew the competition out of the water. Overall, we see from regular season data, that EDM’s defence has arrived.
That said, this excellence didn’t continue into the playoffs, where EDM posted mediocre to poor fancies at evens. Their 5v5 xGF% of 49.35 ranked 9th in playoffs. A primary contributor was an inability of the team to exit their own zone with the puck against a more aggressive playoff forecheck.
The defender who got stuck the most in their own end was Darnell Nurse. Nurse’s inability to exit the puck and respond to an aggressive forecheck, combined with his defensive zone deployment (highest among defenders), and several other issues led to his atrocious plus-minus. His drop-off in offensive zone time was the highest of all defenders. But, to be clear, the entirety of the bottom pairs struggled with zone time.
The following chart shows Offensive Zone Time from NHL edge for defenders last season. OZT% is the percent of time that the puck spend in the offensive zone while the player is on the ice.
Oilers defenders posted healthy zone times in the regular season (above 40 percent). However, they struggled in the playoffs. Nurse struggled the most and his zone time exhibited the greatest drop-off. But Ceci, Kulak and Desharnais struggled also.
It’s interesting to question why this might be:
-Was injury to blame?
-Would an alternative deployment that starts your possession defenders in the defensive zone more often further optimize results?
-Does regular season zone time predict playoff success? I had a quick look at stats from VGK and COL the years they won the cup, and it the regular season their OZT% wasn’t great at 71st and 81st percentile respectively, whereas FLA was at the 96th percentile with 44.4% OZT in the ’23-’24 regular season.
Thanks for your hard work here
I go Occam’s Razor. Multiple looks have found issues. Ceci’s strength is in D zone defense, meaning the rest and preventative defense is a weakness. We know this is not what you want. and now that glass and out is not the first option it probably made those issues worse under pressure. May have affected Nurse, but it’s hard to separate him from partners
Des is big, that’s it. Lovely guy, very limited player and not violent enough to be effective. Slower tall awkward players need to be feared, as Chara was, and Zadorov is
Nurse and Ceci both played okay during the regular season, then struggled mightly during the playoffs as you noted. At this point, it seems to be a pattern.
What if they always struggle agains playoff teams, even during the regular season?
How would you know?
I’ve been chatting with Gmoney and Woodguy about this. I asked if they could add a filter to separate player data vs playoff and non playoff teams.
It would be sort of like filtering player data by elite, mid, and grittensity.
I’d love to know how Nurse and Ceci fared against playoff teams during the regular season or whether players like Foegele load up on points from non-playoff teams during the regular season.
It would shed light on important questions like player’s whose scoring goes cold during the playoffs. Is it because they’re playing better teams or something about the playoffs itself?
Playoff team vs. non-playoff team data would be really great to have.
I look forward to Nurse not having a major injury in the playoffs as he did in 2022 and 2024 (Drai as well).
EDM improved on 5v5 GF% in the playoffs vs the regular season for all 4 playoff opponents, but were worse in most other categories. Some of these show score effects, especially the Vancouver and Dallas regular season measures.
Isn’t that covered with the ‘elite’ category? I think binning minutes against elites would be even more difficult ice time.
I’m still stuck on what DFF% vs elites tells us about GF% vs elites, and more importantly about overall 5v5 GF% and the other metrics we look at.
Here are some Oilers numbers from the last 6 seasons. For each season:
DFF% vs Elites (5v5) (totaled from the Oilers D on PuckIQ)
GF% vs Elites (5v5) (totaled from the Oilers D on PuckIQ)
overall xGF% (5v5)
overall GF% (5v5)
2018-19
DFF%-E– 42.9%
GF%-E—- 43.2%
xGF%5v5- 47.4%
GF%5v5– 45.1%
2019-20
DFF%-E– 45.2%
GF%-E—- 54.2%
xGF%5v5- 48.6%
GF%5v5— 47.3%
2020-21
DFF%-E– 49.4%
GF%-E—- 47.9%
xGF%5v5- 49.8%
GF%5v5— 49.8%
2021-22
DFF%-E– 48.4%
GF%-E—- 50.9%
xGF%5v5- 51.8%
GF%5v5– 51.3%
2022-23
DFF%-E– 48.1%
GF%-E—- 50.5%
xGF%5v5- 53.7%
GF%5v5— 53.2%
2023-24
DFF%-E– 56.0%
GF%-E—- 47.8%
xGF%5v5- 57.1%
GF%5v5— 55.8%
At the team level at least, I don’t think DFF% vs elites is a better indicator of team performance than standard 5v5 fancy stats numbers we’ve been using.
My impression is that individual player ‘vs elites’ data is even more variable than the team data, though I don’t think anyone has shown that for certain.
Bringing it back to the more recent discussion, I think that the PuckIQ ‘vs elites” data is being over-interpreted by you and others (while it remains a wonderful resource that provides a bunch of great data).
In terms of zone time, it looks like the Oilers were 93rd percentile in regular season Ozone time this season. So I think Florida was 2nd and the Oilers 3rd league wide in %Ozone time. So yes, I guess regular season Ozone time does predict playoff success with the Oilers and Panthers both making the final…
I also found it odd that 7 of 7 Oilers Dmen seeing a drop-off in playoff Ozone time became a platform to discuss ‘what’s wrong with Nurse’. 7 of 7 would seem to suggest not a problem specific to the Oilers D. Much less to Nurse alone.
Dangerous Fenwick is similar to various attempt-based models that incorporate shot quality (expected goals, scoring chances). The reason to separate them from goals is to try to remove the influences of on-ice chance, finishing and saving. So the numbers won’t be the same as goals or future goals. They aren’t supposed to be the same.
The dangerous Fenwick results shown align with the cumulative offensive zone time numbers for each defender in the regular season. So, I wouldn’t say I’m over-interpreting. The Oilers defence did well by pretty much all measures in the regular season, including goals. Offensive Zone Time was above 40 percent, which seems to be threshold for alignment with positive share of other metrics. But there was drop-off in the playoffs.
Yes, but this was not the case for VGK or COL in their winning seasons. As I stated
“I had a quick look at stats from VGK and COL the years they won the cup, and it the regular season their OZT% wasn’t great at 71st and 81st percentile respectively, whereas FLA was at the 96th percentile with 44.4% OZT in the ’23-’24 regular season.”
Been watching Nuge since the 2011 WHL playoffs. Loved LT’s Datsyuk (style not caliber) comp then and love it now. I always felt he’d never score enough to live up to the #1 Overall hype (which was unfair) but was ecstatic when the Oilers took him.
My family always loved that he had the same birthday as me (same year and everything) so I’ve gotten Nuge jerseys, signed pucks, etc. over the years. I love that he survived Tambellini, renney, krueger, eakins, macT, chiarelli, Tippett, McClellan, Hitchcock, gretzky (acting), Holland, and now knoblauch/bowman while this team has let walk/sent so much NHL talent away since summer 2011.
Never part of the problem, always part of the solution, not quite enough to push the river on a line by himself. Hope he gets the cup right after Draisaitl next summer
Catching up on Oilers Now from Friday and Stauff thinks Broberg may get done in the next week or two, 2-year bridge. Thinks Holloway could drag a little later.
Nuge is so good when we first enter the Zone with his back pass that gets the PP moving in motion. Teams dare RNH to shoot from a goal scorers spot as teams concentrate on Bouchard (now) Leon and Connor. He needs to shoot more and hit the net. With the open looks he receives he should be scoring 30 goals.
Absolutely!
The Nuge Abides.
Very happy he’s signed long at $5.125 which will continue to get cheaper and cheaper as the cap gets to $100MM
I see him similar to O’Reilly at $4.5MM (2 more years, 2 years older).
ROR is better defensively and plays C, while RNH is better offensively, but it’s the kind of contract you’re fine with for a long time.
And he’s right handed!
Whoa.
I find it interesting that a few years back we were calling Mark Letestu the Swiss Army knife type of player.
It was Nuge all along. It was always Nuge.
The thing with Nuge was always 5×5 scoring. Anybody have his 82 game averages 5×5? I’m wondering what kind of drop off do we see from his 23-42-65 per 82GP. Thanks.
Sir, your math ain’t mathin’. Nuge has yet to crack 60 points.
Really? According to the NHL, he scored 28-41-69 in 2018/19, 22-39-61 in 2019/20 and 37-67-104 in 2022/23. Even last season he scored 18-49-67. These are his regular season numbers. If someone’s math ain’t mathin’, it’s yours sir.
Old joke. Used to be 50 points, no?
Inflation affects us all
Trolling the resident troll who once stupidly stated Nuge would never score 60 pts.
It goes back to Elmwood West ender Kelly Hrudey who has a Flames tattoo on each arse cheek. He was trolling the Oilers again by saying to some effect that RNH would never get 50 points and would never be nothing but a 3rd line Centre at best. This is nothing compared to Buttons whose the biggest troll south who said Bouchard was a bust and Dobson was superior when Holland&Tippet had Evan on house arrest in a Motel 6 somewhere in the Brooks area.
Doesn’t seem quite accurate as it relates to Button and Bouchard:
https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-bouchard-rocketing-up-draft-board-1.1031499
I watched it. on T.V it was on TSN Button laugh at the Oilers and basically call Bouchard a bust a couple of years after Bouchard was drafted. You can find all the articles on Button flip flopping for hits all you want I know what I seen and heard.
And the stat quoted is per 82 games played… note that he only played 82 games in 3 seasons, so the math is more complicated than simple points per season.
MacT and Randy Gregg were recently announced as the next inductees in to the Oilers Hall of Fame and, really, this Oilers Hall of Fame was made for Ryan Nugent Hopkins.
13 seasons as an Oiler and likely 6 more to come.
He never became and “offensive driver” and, in that respect, maybe a disappointment to some as a 1st overall but this guy has played in all situations for the Oilers for as long as I can remember. Top 6 at 5 on 5 (both wing and center), PP, PK, up a goal, down a goal, etc., etc.
I love the fact that he had that outlier 100 point season – I’ve even got a shirt (ON: Season of Nuge).
He’s probably going to start to slow down a bit through he rest of the term of this contract but I think he’ll be a very effective 2-way player through its term – value for $5MM.
Leon passing the cup to Nuge will be a memory that I never forget, of that I’m convinced.
Connor will pass the Cup to Nuge first. It’s the right thing to do.
Perhaps, and I understand that thought process.
I still think it goes to Drai before Nuge.
Best part is even though one of us is wrong (or possibly both), when we get to find out, we still win 🙂
Connor will hand the cup to Leon then Nuggy.
That is what I think as well and, although many will not like it, Nurse gets it next likely – in my opinion.
First line, first powerplay, first penalty kill.
By usage Nuge is the top special teamer on the squad without a throw,.
Very happy for MacT to be recognized.
He was the perfect 3-C. I’ve been whining for a 3-C since Jarret Stoll was winning faceoffs left right and centre . Now we finally have a real 3-C in Henrique everyone is going on and on about Ceci but it’s Henrique that’s going to be a key reason we win back to back Cups. Henrique will score 18-22 goals while feasting on 3rd lines all across the league.
I think Connor will pass it to Leon, but Leon will say give it to Nuggy.
Connor
Nuge
Leon
Nurse
Is there a chance RNH loses his spot on the PP1 to Skinner? I can see adding a pure shooter (even a left handed shooter on the left side) as a new wrinkle that would be very hard for teams to defend.
Right now teams want RNH to shot the puck as there best of bad options. Skinner, Driasaitl and Bouchard around the triangle as shooters would be very difficult to defend. McDavid distributioning the puck to these options would be very fun to watch.
One thing I notice from Connor is how many times he is skating around the O zone and holds the puck, often with no good pass to make and he eventually tries to score himself, often going against multiple defenders
He often does it, but having players that find ice and can finish makes it easier and less tiring, and less risky for him. He isnt done growing his game yet, the team has and should keep trying to help him do that
Nuge Connor Hyman had a great season, I counted the goals and they scored 1 or 2 more last season than previous even with Hyman’s season. They were great, but to me let’s not forget why, it’s mostly Connor. They traded their goals around, ideally they keep producing more even incrementally. They can because Connor keeps pushing ahead
I think everything should be considered first to maximize the games greatest player and weapon, then balancing things out. To me he needs a shooter at evens and agree about PP. Hyman does everything he can, is amazing in how he also keeps improving, but he’s not really a playmaker of shooter. When net fronts get clogged in playoffs in later rounds he sometimes can’t get to his best game for me
I agree Nuge is a very good versatile player and great Oiler. His 5v5 play and defensive play are up and down, I think using the better 5v5 scorers on the top lines is the way to go. Nuge will get his special teams minutes, but making the top lines more dangerous and harder to play against because of that will make the team better
We’ll see how the coaches see it soon enough
Hyman scored more goals in the playoffs in 2024 than anybody else this century.
Nuge is the thread that makes this positionless power play work.
For me it’s Connor’s movement
Connor is able to move, because Nugent-Hopkins is able to play off of him like an entangled paired electron, filling in the spaces that McDavid is absent from seemlessly.
Nugent-Hopkins the Holy Spirit of the Trinity of McDavid, Draisaitl, and Nugent-Hopkins on the pp, often unseen, as important, and under appreciated.
I think if that was what Gully wanted they would have put Kane out there instead of Nuge, and not Hyman.
I remember one year he was injured and the PP% collapsed until he was back.
Nuge is a powerplay witch.
If Jeff was a RH shot he would have a better chance. But why change something that is working. Jeff will be a good 2nd option to change up the look.
Is it ever tempting Skinner has a little Mike Bossy in his release and picking open spots on his shot. I think it’s time for a more traditional 2 PP look where everyone gets at bats and has a opportunity to pad stats. Our PP2 is total opposite of PP1 Nurse holds the line very well and the net front presence is hard to defend. Our PP 2 throws teams off it only gets 30 seconds but it looks effective this unit should receive more time especially when PP1 isn’t feeling it. It’s a long season Coach K.K needs to spread out the wealth.
Wouldn’t Arvidsson make more sense in that spot of they were looking to make a change? He’s got a legit weapon of a one-timer and is a right shot.
Is it too much of a statement to say that he might be the key to Cup?
McDavid and Draisatl will do what they do. Our defense is what it is. Our new forwards are question marks, but I somehow feel that as Nuge gets, so will our year. He is so versatile. 2C, 1 or 2 LW. Pk. PP.
I hope to see him at 2LW with Leon. See if he can’t unlock the 50 goal Leon, alongside Arvidsson. Tough minutes line.
Maybe, but to me it’s more likely the new forwards. I like Nuge but the numbers aren’t great 5v5 in playoffs. He had 3 assists in the last two series, Connor by far his most common line, and that is in the range of the bottom 6 players production. PP he got 3 goals
To me he is trending to be a mid 6 player at 5v5 and PP/PK specialist. But as YYCOil mentioned he may lose some PP time to better shooters. That’s fine, it should be about whatever needs to be done to win a Cup
I would suggest that it would be Darnell Nurse that could be the key.
If he was near historical norms in the playoffs last season, Oilers likely the cup.
Considering he isn’t even 30 yet, I would think a bounce-back on his post-all-star break performance is likely.
Agreed!