Here is a look at the July 2018 training camp projection. Hopefuls on this list included Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Patrick Russell, Cooper Marody and Brad Malone. Several of those names went on to NHL careers. I believe Noah Philp will do the same.
Noah Philp is 25, will turn 26 later this month. He is older for a prospect, but he’s also packing a skill set (RH center with size and aggressiveness with some skill) that is a pure need for the organization at the NHL level. Philp isn’t the headliner among rookies this fall, but he’s close enough for jazz.
Total rookies of interest: Nine with Matthew Savoie the clear headliner. I suspect he outplays a few old folks in training camp, and will be an early recall. I think he has the best ROY chance among Oilers hopefuls. Noah Philp has a great chance to do some good things, but he’ll need to shake off the rust and that could take until Christmas. Roby Jarventie is a player we don’t know well, but has has played in the NHL before, and if he’s healthy the Oilers could give him a look. He plays the aggressive style this organization is procuring on the double currently.
Raphael Lavoie is well known to Oilers fans and he has a chance, albeit far from a great chance. Olivier Rodrigue appears to be well outside an NHL appearance, but I believe he’s good enough to have an NHL career and also believe he will push this winter. Max Wanner is probably a year away, but he’s filthy, physical and RH so one never knows. If he takes another step this year like he did last season, he could be in the show. Jayden Grubbe is more of a distant bell but worth noting. Phil Kemp, a dependable depth RH blue completes the list. AHL vets like Cam Dineen, Phil Kemp and Ben Gleason are also of interest. NOTE: This is about rookies, so Lane Pederson doesn’t qualify for the list.
2024 draft notes: Trading up for Sam O’Reilly was a big damn deal, but there’s more under the hood of the 2024 Oilers draft. I’m specifically high on Dalyn Wakely and William Nicholl.
Best player as a rookie: For me it’s Savoie, but Philp, Lavoie and Jarventie are also possible. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Gleason and Dineen here. Injuries could put one of these men in a feature role, similar to Calvin Pickard’s emergence (through poor play) one year ago.
Second best player: I’ll go with Philp. He’s a perfect fit for No. 4 center, I’m tempted to suggest he could make the team out of camp but missing a year is a lot.
Oldest rookie: Philp, Dineen and Gleason will all be 26 in training camp.
Most unusual story: Philp’s story is unique and heartbreaking. I don’t know a human alive who isn’t cheering for the young man. Beyond that, Jarventie is coming in with piles of promise and a large injury resume.
Longest NHL career: Savoie. He’s an exceptional get for this team. I’m amazed they got him.
Anything else? I’m so pleased to see the organization paying attention to amateur procurement again. You know, value contracts will come from this group. Also, we don’t know what we don’t know about these men. There’s a Vincent Desharnais in there. We just don’t know his name. Someone was hanging out at the tastee-freeze all summer, someone else was running up that hill at the grind house. I can’t wait for camp.
Bruce McCurdy at the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal is our guest today on the Lowdown, noon to 2pm on Sports 1440. We’ll talk Oilers rookies, Hlinka and Olympics. We’ll also chat Elks, MLB and a new feature “You Make the Call” you’ll want to hear. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
“Philp’s story is unique and heartbreaking. I don’t know a human alive who isn’t cheering for the young man”
Given that most of us don’t know the story, it will just have to be normal cheering for a prospect. I wish this wasn’t brought up because it’s not public knowledge and now we’re all curious, We’ll except 3 of us
Thank you for expressing my feelings in a way better than I.
Talking to John Shannon last night and Stauff throws out the $14MM-$14.25MM range for Drai on 8 year. Mentioned “MAYBE” it comes in a bit under.
Is Drai preparing the public or over-stating so that the public sees $13.8MM as a discount?
He’s been talking for days about how much the management will need to grind and work to find players on the cheap to fill in gaps.
If Stauffer is saying that I will guess it’s 14m.
I think 13.3 would be reasonable for both sides – makes him the highest paid player for a year and helps set a limit for the McDavid contract.
That said he could probably get close to 16m on the open market so I can see him wanting more than 13.
If he gets 14m, McDavid probably comes in at 16.5 or something. The organization really has no other option but to pay them but it’s going to be really hard to win with Bouchard coming up too. This coming year is probably the best chance.
What’s the point of doing a deal if it means they can’t win because too shallow? If so cash him in
I hope they aren’t just blindly walking into this like Holland would. There needs to be a cost benefit analysis done. LT always says take care of the bosses money. 112M + is a lot of the bosses money, and 8 years is a long time to hear the angst of his customers
Downvoters need to make the decision of do they want the same players on the team for feels or do they want to have a team winning championships. With one of the greatest players of all time in prime, an outrageous advantage, and another elite in Bouch who will be cheaper than Drai
Because that is the actual question. Not about who we like or how good individuals are, but the team in a team sport where no one or two or three can be enough to get it done. Take every opportunity to win what matters, or not?
I see $12.8M as a nice discount for Leon, & Connor at a nice discount would be $14.8M.
Bouchard an even $10M. $37.6M for the trio for the next 8 years. I don’t see $14M-$14.25 as any discount. If they don’t get all three for under $40M they’re blowing smoke.
40M if the cap was 98M as it will be close to in Connor’s next deal is 41% of the cap for 3 guys. Can’t win that way, no sir. By the time the cap raised enough to offset it they’ll be too old
Add the Nurse $9.25 million and you’re almost at $50 million for four players.
I thought my estimate for those three was at a realistic discount at $37.6M. Nurse’s contract is obviously problematic. But that’s the reality of it.
14M is too high. Drai may be worth it but if he is asking for max dollars, we can’t win like that.
Max dollars for 24-25 year is $17.6M.
Max dollars in year 1 of a new Drasiaitl deal would be $18.5M (assuming a 5% Cap increase).
I haven’t been following the speculated contract estimates closely, but have seen $13.8M mentioned often.
Are folks in a tizzy over $200-400k per year?
All these years on here and you have to ask if people are in a tizzy over $200-400k per year? 😇
Hehe, I was indeed thinking of Ryan Smyth when I wrote that.
(also genuinely curious and uncertain whether or not this is a discussion over a make or break number under $500k).
The tizzy will really hit if there is no contract headed into TC.
I’m the one the “reported” what Bob said yesterday, speculating it could be in the $14MM to $14.25MM.
Of course, you sign him if that’s what it takes but I don’t disagree that it’s “too much” and, for me, its not a couple hundred grand too much. On an 8 year deal, where 3 of those seasons are when he’s 35 or older, well, I think it should come down closer to $13MM (but acknowledging its very unlikely to not surpass Matthews – even though Matthews is all prime years)
I know that. What I’m unsure of is what the realistic expectations/reports of the lower end are.
“Is Drai preparing the public or over-stating so that the public sees $13.8MM as a discount?”
When the paid guests and Stauffer agree like that, usually seems like a talking point from the executive. Seravalli is less subtle than Shannon. Up next is the endless praise for Bowman in getting the deal done.
I haven’t heard anything about the impact of the ‘26-‘27 lockout on these huge contracts. I have to wonder if this was an influence on Matthews’ term.
I was nodding in agreement about the first part, then…
Wait… what?
Conjecture of course. But within the past calendar year Shannon was talking about gambling revenue, the massive increase in franchise evaluations and Marty Walsh and saying he thought it was going to get ugly.
If there’s going to be a kid line arriving on the horizon it will be, Holloway-Philp-Savoie.
They might even be better than, Gelinas-Graves-Murphy.
You do relize Noah will be 26. I also think your comparison is disrespecting how young and talented the Kid Line was in NHl and Oiler history.
They’re all Kids for crying out loud. I just think potentially they could be as good or even better, no disrespect intended. Holloway is the only kid that has actually played NHL games if you want to get knit picky.
Your right your only as young as you identify as. Take a look at that youngster Sergei Makarov who captured the rookie of the year award at the tender age of 32. Anyhow Graves-Gelinas-Murphy combined for over 860 goals career wise but whose counting.
Holloway, Philp & Savoie are just starting their careers.
If that was true everybody would start collecting their old age pension right out of high school. 🥸
When the neighborhood played road hockey I used to identify as Vladislav Tretiak.
I didn’t know you speak Russian.
I loved Tretiak as kid and as much as it was the Commies vs the Free World the CCCP team was amazing. I also thought Alexander Yakushev was a beast with sweet hands I found Valeri Kharlamov the second most explosive player just behind Bobby Orr. We were so lucky to have Glen Sather at the helm he adapted the European with the North American game. It took 9 years but we have finally surrounded Connor with some talent. Screw this 2-1 low event hockey l hope Kris lets this team free wheel where we win games 8-5 with someone different getting a hat trick. Let go back to Oiler hockey where it’s wide open exciting
I want to speak Tikkanese… just to drive everyone crazy.
Stauff asked Pracey about Beau Akey yesterday and Pracey mentioned that everything is positive in his rehab/recover and he should be cleared for contact soon and ready for Penticton.
Great news. I was surprised to hear he had surgery on both shoulders, at least one due to a torn labrum, during an offseason feature on him a few days ago from the Barrie Colts. He spoke really positively of his own recovery there as well.
If two shoulder operations don’t make him the ultimate Oilers prospect (unfortunately) I don’t know what will.
Does Akey have another year of Junior before he turns pro?
He is eligible for 2 more years of Jr I believe, but certainly will be back in Barrie for this upcoming season at least.
He’s already played three years with the Barrie Colts so he has one more year to go before going pro.
He turns 20 during this season so would be eligible for the AHL next season (or he could play an over-age season in junior which generally isn’t a great sign for a “real prospect” – missing, essentially, a full year could be a factor there).
I’m quite intrigued to see Jarventine.
There are various different accounts on how heavy he is, from 185 to over 200.
At only 21, I presume he’ll be headed to Penticton (also presuming he is healthy and ready to go).
Keith Gretzky has talked about Jarventine and Savoie, IF they don’t make the NHL team, getting big minutes and responsibility in the AHL – that message has been given to each of the players as well.
I think my thoughts are well known on Noah Philp.
I’m convinced that, if he didn’t take last year off, he would have spent most of the season in the NHL.
I see him as the logical Derek Ryan replacement and, a year ago today, he looked ready for the NHL opportunity.
His development in his rookie pro year was sensational. He want from 4th line winger/healthy scratch to highly trusted center who played quite a bit of 1C down the stretch.
We presume it takes him a few months to get to where he was at the end of 2022/23. Here is hoping he actually gets there (and then continues to develop) – I guess there is no certainty he gets back to where he was but, if he does, this kid is the perfect 4C for the next few years.
Not necessarily talking about a direct skills comparison, but who do you see as the closest style comp for Philp? If he makes it, what can we expect him to look like on the ice? Mike Peca-lite?
I would suggest a bit of a heavier game than Peca – more like and Adam Lowry light maybe.
That would be fantastic.
What do you think will be his ceiling? 4C who can move up to 3C in a pinch, or 4C who gets reps on PK and that’s it?
Hmmm, its tough to say, I mean it was just one year pro after coming from a “non-traditional” background.
It was a really promising rookie season but need to remember that he was like a 24 year old rookie.
I would think that he likely has the ceiling of a 4C that can move up to 3C in a pinch – as you suggest. I don’t want to cap his ceiling but, realistically, I can’t expect 3rd line minutes as the norm.
At this point, I look for him to get back to where he was a year ago. For all we know that last 2-3 months was a heater that we never see again. I doubt it though – he seems like a hard worker, a coachable kid and smart.
Do you remember Adam Graves? Well, he’s the guy I hope we can compare him to.
I don’t see him as an Adam Graves type player – Graves was banger and that’s not Philp’s game.
I thought Philp had plenty of bang to his game. Not only that but he sure looked like he could handle himself with the fisty cuffs.
He’s a got size to him and he’s strong in battle but he’s not out there running d-men in to the end boards shift after shift.
I recall two fights in the AHL and, yup, he did well in both.
Both were in response to a hit on a teammate.
He beat up the one guy (although he was a smaller dude, like 5’10) and had a great tilt with Posposil (Wranglers) – very even back and forth and then Philp dropped him with a punch for the KO.
He doesn’t shy away from physical contact but he’s not crashing and banging on every shift like Josh Archibald, a younger Clutterbuck or, as mentioned, Adam Graves.
Been quite impressed with how the org has been able to find some quality this summer.
I think both Jarventie (an upgrade over Bourgoult and only a few months older) and Savoie (McLeod will be missed, but this has clear upside) could make impacts at different places in the lineup as early as this season.
And to have Phillip, Lavoie and O’Reilly waiting in the wings is helpful. Especially in whatever window this is in terms of “cup”. It would be nice to have little more depth on D. I wonder how deep the Oilers go fishing for NCAA talent as the season progresses. There’s always quality to be found there. And D men take longer.
We’ll need as many value contracts that produce over the next few seasons. And this core is aging fast, so the younger the better.
But nice work by Jackson, Parkatti and K Gretz. It’s quite the turnaround.
Until we learn about a Draisaitl extension, the replenishment of the prospect pipeline is the story of the summer.
When it comes to Philp i never heard any release of information. It was not mentioned nor discussed to my knowledge.
Thus, while I hope he can make a difference, I have no extra empathy towards him as I have no knowledge of any unique or heart-breaking story.
I never came across anything other than he wanted to not play hockey
It’s all been very private.
It was discussed. And certainly heart breaking/life changing.
I’m here most every day and don’t recall, is there somewhere else?
The outer limits.
Then why won’t anyone say what happened?
Respect.
Nothing official was released on this but I was told of the reasons that he took a year off (in confidence) from someone that is very reliable.
I understand. And he has no obligation to reveal. Im good.
But as such, he quit hockey and is now trying to resume.
I used to love cheering for Davidson due to his story. Even the Swedish teacher, almost an Oiler defenceman, Joel Persons? Loved cheering for him. He was right handed by the way …..
Close, Persson.
SHL defenseman of the year this past season.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/63003/joel-persson
Guilty as charged.
Thanks Lowetide. I’m cheering my head off for all these guys!
I expect Savoie to arrive soon, as you always say. And I’m hoping Philp arrives soon as well, they need him this season. Ryan has ling been a fav of mine because he was effective, but those days have passed it looks like by numbers. So they can’t go into playoffs relying in him, a free in house solution is ideal. Also hoping for Wanner to keep growing
Philp replaces Ryan & Savoie replaces Perry ASAP.
Skinner-McDavid-Hyman
Nuge-Leon-Arvid
Holloway-Philp-Savoie
Janmark-Henrique-Brown
Kane
Kane won’t play so he will have to waive his NTC if he isn’t on LTIR.
I suspect that Kane plays hockey for the Oilers this season – quite possibly in October, maybe not though.
If Kane is on LTIR, Savoie needs to be on the roster when the placement happens or else his bonuses will count against the cap when he’s called up later (if still in LTIR) – he’d be $1.9MM I believe, without looking.
We should get the Hardy boys to solve the Kane mystery.
Blog is a little glitchy this morning. My apologies.
No hay problema