This is Raphael Lavoie’s comparable list (the high end) with NHL equivalencies. Needless to say, Lavoie did not progress in a manner that would allow me to fill out the rest of the graph. The question now is this: Does Lavoie have a chance to find his NHL footing and have a “Brad Winchester” career?
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
Brad Winchester? Come on! Lavoie isn’t physical in the way Winchester brought the muscle, but Lavoie was second on the Condors (among forwards) in PIMS last season. He’s an edgier player than he was upon AHL arrival.
We have to ‘Mystery Science Theatre’ one of these Condors games because you sir are smoking the drapes! Lavoie is a player who has developed in areas that were lacking. He moves his feet well, has a brilliant release on a heavy shot and he does bully opponents off the puck. He scored 28 goals in 66 games a year ago.
Did he play responsibly? He had an even strength goal share of 52 percent (44-41) in 2023-24. When he was off the ice, Bakersfield owned a 54 percent (121-104) goal advantage.
So he sucks! If Lavoie had three fewer GA he would be average on the Condors roster. I don’t think that kind of gap is so noteworthy we should punish the player.
Who does he have to beat out for a job? I think the Oilers starting eight wingers will be Skinner-Hyman, Nuge-Arvidsson, Janmark-Brown, Holloway-Perry. So, he basically needs an injury.
This entire series is a joke. We’re two people in and it’s time to call an ambulance! Well, the Oilers are a strong team and there isn’t room for many rookies.
ROOKIES? Lavoie is 30! Raphael Lavoie will be 24 in six weeks. Calm your tits, old man.
Who else is working for a promotion among the forwards? We’ve already discussed Noah Philp, and Lane Pederson plus James Hamblin can also play center so we’ll chat about them.
Perhaps you misunderstood, I’ll be more clear. Who else is working for a promotion among the AHL wingers? He didn’t play in the AHL this year, but Matthew Savoie is the top option eventually. I do think he’ll spend most or all of the season in the minors, and score at close to a point-per-game there.
So that’s his competition? Not really, they aren’t applying for the same job.
You are like Yogi Berra in the AFLAC commercials today, man. WHO IS LAVOIE’S COMPETITION FOR NHL WORK THIS COMING SEASON AMONG CONDORS WINGERS? Don’t be so yell. It makes you stand out in a bad way. I would say Hamblin can play the wing, and has good speed and two-way acumen but can’t score enough to hold an NHL job. Roby Jarventie could pass Lavoie easily but injury is a worry and I’m not quite sure how much action he’ll see this coming season. Matvey Petrov would need a major spike to enter the conversation and I think Drake Caggiula is a little too old to make an NHL comeback. The rest are too young or on AHL deals.
So Lavoie is front of the line for bottom-six work among those who are ticketed for the AHL? Among wingers, yes.
Okay. Maybe stay in the shade today. I think you got too much sun and your brain is a little addled. Pot, meet kettle.
The old man should have asked when we cut bait? Unfortunately if it isn’t this year with the oilers its probably never. I think Lavoie could reasonably outperform Perry and if he doesn’t get enough at bats, we won’t know if he could have been a Winchester + shot. I get it ‘win now mode’, there is an element of ‘keeping the window’ open that can only be accomplished with young value contracts. Of course lets see if he can outperform Perry in camp.
I see there’s mention from Stauffer that Kane will be ready for camp, so maybe that’s true.
I did notice Jackson mentioning in his season ending presser that in addition to Kane’s core injury something to the effect ‘and you all know about his ankle issue’.
I hadn’t heard about it before that moment though. Did anyone else hear about it before then? Was an ankle injury publicly known or suggested?
At the time I wondered if it could be a little bit of posturing to set up a LTIR stint, but not sure if that’s reasonable or not.
Of course I mean hip – oops.
Really curious if a hip issue for Kane had been reported prior to Jackson mentioning it though.
Oh, hip – sorry, didn’t see this before I responded to the original post.
Yes, he mentioned hip but he didn’t mention the sports hernia – to me, its one and the same injury – that area is all connected and I think sports hernia could be a broad term from injuries to the area.
Hmm. That hadn’t occurred to me. While they’re sort of the same area they aren’t similar injuries in any way. Would be weird to conflate them IMO, but you could be right.
It did strike me as setting up the potential for LTIR as well though. A hip injury would probably work better for that purpose as well.
I don’t recall Jackson saying anything about Kane’s ankle….
I thought his post-season presser (his first one) was setting up potential LTIR posturing, talking about needing to talk to Kane and his people and getting evaluations done and such but I don’t recall anything about an ankle.
Could it be that Kanes supposed Sport Hernia was actually a hip issue?
Did Stauffer say this recently?
Not to speak for jp, but I took this as the recent verbal through the proxy podcast 2Mutts discussed below.
BornInAGretzkyJersey is correct, I was referring to this from OP. I assumed Stauffer appeared on 2 Mutts, but maybe that’s not correct.
“From 2 Mutts (which, in my opinion is often a Stauffer unofficial platform):”
OK, thanks.
Sorry – to clarify: Stauffer often does appear on the 2 Mutts Podcast but, just recently, over the last month, the 2 Mutts Podcast twitter account has started to put out “insider information” and I’m speculating its a Stauffer unofficial platform.
The twitter account essentially nailed the Bowman signing in the 24-36 hours before – it wasn’t a huge surprise that they signed Bowman but the account nailed the timing.
From 2 Mutts (which, in my opinion is often a Stauffer unofficial platform):
Some @EdmontonOilers news to report:
1. Leon Draisaitl contract extension talks are going great, there has been some talk that Leon’s camp would ask for $14.5M on AAV but he’s willing to take less than that to stay in Edmonton & it will be an 8 year deal from what we are told. His deal should be 8 years, $13.3M-$13.5M. Leon is taking less to stay in Edmonton.
2. Evander Kane will be ready for training camp, he will take part in the Captain Skates come early September. Going on LTIR isn’t the plan according to sources. Kane & his family have invested in staying in Edmonton over the next two years & beyond.
The Ducks & Kings have interest in Kane but he’s not looking to waive his NMC at this time. He WANTS to be an Oiler!
3. Dylan Holloway & Philip Broberg are expected to sign 2 year deals next week, Holloway AAV could be $1.3M & Broberg’s AAV could be $1.1M
In my opinion, the org may be looking to get that $14MM plus number out there so that $13.5MM or higher doesn’t seem too bad.
I’ll take Leon all day at 8 X $13.5MM but that’s a high AAV for a contract that takes him to 38.
Yes he’s worth the money. The question will be can they make it work paying 4 players so much of the cap?
25/26 is going to be tight with Bouch coming up, J Skinner and Ceci coming off. 26/27 of course Connor, but Kane Kulak and Ekholm expire, two are higher contracts. I can see Ekhlom staying for a lower salary if he can still play, maybe Kane and Aridsson as well given age. They can perhaps juggle cap around, the team needs to find their good cheap players tout de suite
If Leon does 13.5M and Connor does 15M which I don’t think is unreasonable and Bouch 9M, Skinner 4.5M. 2.6M for Jack
2026/2027
40.575M for 5 F (4 are top 6 if Nuge is hanging in there)
19.25M for 3 D
4.5M for 1 G
64.325M for 9 players. The cap should be around 98M so 31.075M left for 9 F, 4 D and 1 G to get to 23
If we allot 16M for 2 top 6 F and 2 top 4 D, 15.075M for 10 players. Yikes, zero room for cap inefficiency
The high cap players are going to have to pull some heavy weight to do what they want to do. The danger will be teams that are emerging and have more depth of talent because of younger players hitting their prime at lower cap hits still, until the cap catches up with them. Established contending teams are usually in the same boat
Instructive to look at the Dallas cap situation.
Jamie Benn’s $9.5 million comes off the cap in a year with Seguin expiring two seasons later freeing up another $9.85million.
Wyatt Johnson, Logan Stankhoven and Mavrik Bourque already getting established on ELC’s to fill those slots.
Miro Heiskanen on an absolute bargain $8.45 million for another 4 seasons.
And they’ve been stockpiling D through the draft especially right shot.
The only high ticket items coming up are Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger who will still be an RFA after the upcoming season.
It will be interesting to see how they handle Thomas Harley who is an unsigned RFA.
“2026/2027… The cap should be around 98M”
98M seems like a reasonable estimation.
Since 2018 the cap has increased 10 percent but revenues have increased 20. Valuations have more than doubled in this period with the Senators selling at close to a billion, and Coyotes selling for more than a billion. The CBA extends to the end of ‘25-‘26. What does the cap look like after renegotiation? We say 98M or 100M. Ok.
But there are a lot of questions related to renegotiation. Could the cap be higher? Could it be a lot higher? What is driving the franchise valuations? How can two teams sell for a billion dollars and the cap doesn’t even keep up with revenue? The NHLPA doesn’t get a cut of sale or expansions via it seems. Are there more expansions coming? How do they feel about that? What are the actual revenues from gambling? So far the league doesn’t get a cut of the book, the deals are branding and stats related. What are the partnerships worth to the casinos? How long is the MGM extension for? Are there casinos willing to outbid MGM in the future? NHLPA has a newly hired Marty Walsh. Will he take a hard approach on negotiations? Will there be another lockout?
Did any of this factor into Matthews signing a shorter deal? Is a shorter deal a riskier bet that could payoff on a more dramatic cap increase?
On the Draisaitl front, I’m interested to know the impact of Tavares vs CRA over 8M$. Tavares had his deal structured with a lot of bonuses, which is more appealing when a lockout is on the horizon, but also Tavares tried to use the bonus structure to pay less tax. Do they try to structure Leon’s in a similar manner? Does Liut and his tax team view bonuses the same way as Brisson? Maybe it doesn’t matter and isn’t a factor at all.
Hey daniel, not sure if you were here previously under a different moniker, but I’ve wanted to say for a while now that I appreciate the intellectual vigour of your approach to posting.
I enjoy reading what you have to say, as I often find the content thought provoking and informed.
Where’s the discount?
Given its an 8-year contract, there really isn’t one.
Talk is cheap I guess.
Tell your boss Monday to cut your salary 20% maybe that’ll inspire the crafty Mike Luit.
My Boss? Oh, you must mean my wife. She spends all my money anyway.
Bowman pulling the old Kansas City Shuffle on the masses.
Would he not start the final year of that 8yr extension as a 36yo and finish it as a 37yo? If im management id give the no move for the first 5yrs but not the last 3
Nope, he’d turn 37 in October of the last season.
I’m expecting a NMC for the entire 8 years – I think that is a given.
Excellent news on Kane. So many possible forward combinations with him in the line up. Deepest in the league for sure. Not to mention he adds a dimension that is badly needed in the line up
I sure hope he’s happy with his ice time.
The corollary effect of Leon taking $1MM-$1.5MM less is that Connor and Bouchard will likely follow suit doing the same. Let’s say there’s an extra $3MM-$4.5MM available as a result of those concessions. Hypothetically.
That’s essentially enough to cover a middle-six forward, most of a top-4 defender, or a mid-tier starting/1B goaltender. Or several PK specialists at forward and defense.
That goes a long way to building sustainable depth.
While I agree that he is “taking less” than he could demand and probalby get, I don’t agree its “a discount” all things considered (including the 8-year term)
Depends how you look at it.
If you are willing to pay somebody ‘x+1’ for something you want and the seller says ‘x’ is fine then you say the seller gave the buyer a discount.
I think you look at it differently. Maybe that he will not be a $13.5M player through the last years of his contract and only worth $13.5M for the first few years? Is that how you arrive at the conclusion that it is not a discount rate?
That’s pretty much exactly how I look at it.
Compare it to Matthews who is making $13.25MM for his absolute mid-prime years.
Drai is superstar and, if he remains healthy, he’ll likely stay productive for a number of years but he will start regressing during the first half of that contract let alone the 35-38 year old seasons, right?
I think you have to balance that with where the cap was at when Matthews signed as well as where the cap will be four years from now when Draisaitl may start to regress. It could easily be $20M higher than it is this year.
Also that Matthews may not be a Leaf in 4 years. And if he is he’ll sure as hell be making more than $13.25M.
Yes, like the 8-year speculation on Drai, Matthews got the player-friendly term – it just happened to be opposite.
Given Matthews was just turning 26 when he signed (turning 27 for when the contract kicked in), a longer term would have been more team friendly and 8 year deal would have been better (7 probably ideal).
For Drai, given he’ll be 30 when it kicks in, an 8-year deal contains 35-38 year old seasons and the extra 3 years should serve to reduce AAV.
The players are using their super-star leverage – as they should.
The cap will also be rising vis-a-vis Matthews as well during the term of his contract.
Not four years from now because Matthews will be on a new contract.
Yes, and because he negotiated a player friendly term, it will be a monster deal. As I said, player friendly contract – got big AAV and favorable term.
Similar, Drai looks to be getting player friendly term (this time 8 years – if it was 4-5 years, he’d be signing going in to a 34 or 35 year old season and would get 4+ more years at top AAV) and big AAV.
Both players getting player-friendly deals, AAV and term, given their situations at the time of signing.
I don’t know the Condors as well as many here. But on paper, looking at a few games, and EDM preseason by far the best right shot forward in Bakersfield is Seth Griffith. He’s the franchise all time points leader and has put up three amazing seasons. This is a smaller right shot centre who has done things in the AHL that Derek Ryan never could. But no mention here from LT or anyone as a suitable candidate for 4C or wing, and not barely a quick lick with the Oilers in only one regular season game. Why? Cause 5’9”? I’m genuinely interested to hear from those who follow the Condors closely. I think he would be a better candidate for EDM as a winger than centre. I don’t understand why he doesn’t even get a mention across many LT blogs and comments.
Probably age
Ryan’s last stint in the A was 9 games scoring 1.44 PTS/GP and full time NHL since. Seth hasn’t done that, he has gotten close, many years ago
14 points in 9 games is a far cry from 80 points in 64 games. Ryan’s best AHL season was 55 points in 70 games.
Yes, but 1.44 seems to jump start an NHL career, even at 30YO
Griffith is no longer on an NHL contract – he’s on an AHL deal.
He’s a great Condor but now a regressing AHL player.
Thanks. Sportrac has him listed on an NHL contract and shows first in Google. Which is why I thought he was on one. But the Condors press release says AHL only as you are saying.
LT has talked about Griffith a lot over the years.
If I recall correctly, the gist of the matter is Griffith is all gas and no brakes. He’s not suited for defensive play at the NHL level and his calling card, offence, is well covered by others better able to play well without the puck.
“LT has talked about Griffith a lot over the years.”
Thanks I was just wondering about no mention in the blog since playoffs. But OP has explained. I thought he on was on an NHL contract. He’s not. So, he I guess he won’t even be at camp. Which is why no mention.
Good to know about defense.
I’m sure he’ll be at camp.
Oilers camp? Just checking. haha. I guess he could accept an invitation to any NHL camp.
To add to the other comments, I don’t think Griffith has played C much or at all for many years. He took very few FOs in his NHL games 6-9 years ago.
And as an aside, I don’t agree his AHL performance is clear of what Ryan could have done. Ryan had two 38 point seasons in the NHL. Griffith played 80 career NHL games and managed 19 points.
Edmonton’s Marco Arop with the Olympic 800m silver medal just now-so close to gold, just a hundredth of a second behind first! Ran a brilliant race against a very tough field.
My only complaint about Arop is that he does not also play for the Oilers.
Watch the race here:
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6478021
Beat his own PB and Cdn record by 1.65 seconds, what an unbelievable race by a good Edmonton boy.
Arop is a great story – coming with his family to Canada at a young age from Sudan as refugees.
Very similar background as Alphonso Davies.
The starting RW depth chart looks better than ever except there is no youth: Hyman 32, Arvidsson 31, Brown 30 and Perry 39. There clearly is an opportunity waiting for Lavoie. Godspeed Rafael!
The Lavoie ship has sailed in Edmonton as a 2nd round prospect he was never given a opportunity for one reason or another. Staios knows this player I could see Ottawa or Montreal given him a fair shot this upcoming season.
Or maybe he didn’t accomplish what was asked of him by the coaching staffs?
I could see the argument if he wired in a beauty goal or two on his call ups, but he didn’t make much of a case that he belonged.
Frankly, I’m more inclined to say Cooper Marody didn’t get an opportunity while guys with no hands like Patrick Russell got half a season in the NHL getting not much done. Neither guy had wheels or was overly physical, but at least Marody had hands and thought the game well.
It took Brown last year 54 games to score his 1st Oiler Goal that bounced in of his shin pad.
If Lavoie could skate and was as good on the PK/away from the puck as Brown, he’d be in the NHL.
I like the kid, I’m rooting for him to fulfil his draft day potential.
They don’t all work out.
He looked defensively capable in the garbage minutes he received. The kid was playing scared shitless of making a mistake. When Holland said we don’t have time for youngsters he was directly referring to Lavoie. Like myself there was a small army of give Lavoie a chance going around that irritated Holland enough to squash any talk of this.
Brown had a previous record of skill level. That usually gives you more rope.
Brown was not N.H.L ready realistically should of been on the farm for half a year. This was Lavoie window to see what he has that opportunity is gone. Woody tried playing a hobbled Brown up the line-up Woody couldn’t fugue it out probably costing him his job as the team was a complete mess with the stupid 11-7 and a hobbled Brown to boot.
Ralph was drafted in 2019, I’m not sure how much input Holland gave other than drafting Bro
They were still drafting skating/motor challenged players up to that time. And even under Holland still size challenged fellas that weren’t also elite offensive players. To my mind so many hurdles to make the league in the end that kind of pick is mostly a wasted one
I guess hoping they learned how to skate better and became more energetic? Smaller guys finding their inner Kucherov or having an unexpected growth spurt?
Rarely works out. I like what they did this draft better, mostly
I actually fist pumped when he was drafted. A big winger that has speed and can score doesn’t grow on trees. They botched his development you know it and so do I
You were 100% convinced the Montreal would take him last season – they didn’t want him taking up a roster spot for free.
You sound disappointed. Lavoie is being buried in the Oiler organization and I don’t think it has to do with his ability. Will probably never know what this player could of became with the same coddling J.P-Yamo etc recoeved. I don’t remember Holland ever saying 1 nice thing or even Raphael being in their future plans.
I hope he finds his way in to some games as an Oiler and forces his way to an NHL career from the depths of the 4th line like Klim Kostin did.
Lavoie has been a streaky goal scorer his entire Hockey career. It would be neat to see him score 6 goals in 10 games if not with the Oilers than someone else. Great trade getting Jarventie who’s style will land him with a role on the big club. Lavoie has no role he’s a big man with a good shot who’s not flashy. There’s no place for him the kid needs to dig deep and go out and get 15 goals in 20 games in Bakersfield and garner some interest out East.
Jarventie is a big man with a good shot who’s not flashy
Exactly brilliant trade for Bourgault Jackson knows we need gruff Janmark types for the real season and he fits the description. Why are the Oilers trying to change Lavoie into a Kevin McClelland type its not going to happen it’s a waste of the talent Lavoie has. We all seen big man Tage Thompson pop overnight. All I’m saying is Lavoie numbers and his work ethic deserved him a opportunity that has sailed on by.
Matt Savoie as well (acknowledging the plan to start him at center in the AHL).
Possibly takes Henrique job in 2 years. I thought they would try Holloway at Centre.
They tried Holloway at center in the AHL and moved him back to the wing after a few weeks – Gretzky and Chaulk have both cited they thought he was more effective on the wing.
The only way Lavoie has a chance to make the opening night roster without LTIR is if they do indeed waive and assign both Ryan and Perry and run a 21 player roster with the 12F being a league min.
Even then he’d be competing with Philp, Pederson and Hamblin for that 12F and two of those guys are right shot centers (and one of them the ideal replacement for Ryan, although likely needing some time).
My guess remains that Kane will start the season on LTIR.
What do you think they will do with that cap space if he does start there?
That’ll largely be determined by Kane’s estimated recovery time.
Kane admitted when Maroon sliced his wrist open that he’s a fast healer, so that will be an important factor.
If he’s likely to come back in season there’s not a ton they can do because of the cap needing to be accounted for when he comes back. My guess is they’d use the LTIR cushion to facilitate a Ceci trade possibly bringing back a bit more AAV, then get compliant near the deadline/Kane’s return.
If Bowman is pulling a Stone/Kucherov special, I’d imagine they swing for the fences. Like a John Carlson, or a Colton Parayko. Though at this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got a top-4 LHD with whom they’re comfortable playing on his off side (EG an Ivan Provorov type player on an expiring deal as a test drive).
At least, that’s probably what I’d do. It’d be fun to be a fly on those walls.
He may be a fast healer, if it’s athletic pubalgia (soft) that might heal faster, but if it’s that and a hip issue (maybe structural) who knows?
The interwebs says non surgical 6-8 weeks, surgical 6-12 weeks for the AP. Depends on what the other issue is if there is one. If he can golf which I believe he was seen doing, that being a twisting motion, it seems being out long term seems unlikely. If he was really bad it would hurt to do that and probably not on the list of things the doc says to do while rehabbing
I don’t know if the Oilers are keeping it quiet to protect Kane or if he is wanting to do his own thing with this. The verbal was a bit odd to me when it was spoken about, seemed like the latter. It seems unusual to me
Yeah, that (and I guess whether Kane goes on LTIR at all) are the million dollar questions.
Pretty wide range of outcomes I’d guess. Probably everything from ‘nothing to see here, just making the opening day cap work’ through ‘Kucherov’d for the year’.
Perhaps it will depend on whether or not they can find a D upgrade trade that works.
I suspect an LTIR move would be designed to provide flexibility for a lot of different potential situations.
I concur. let him rest for 10 games or 24 days as is the minimum for LTIR and see what you have in Broberg and some young Fs. Decision does not have to be made until he is ready to return. While he is on LTIR we have the space to run a 23 man roster, so young uns can platoon in audition during that time. gives a little more time to further explore what options are for the roster via trade, which would be necessary once he returns to be Cap compliant. Best to make that decision once we have more info on how our in house talent shakes out under live NHL fire due to the youth auditions in camp and the early part of the season preceding his eventual return.
Between the wrist injury, the hip thing and the sports hernia, it would be beneficial for him with the shortened offseason to get more time to be as healthy as he can, seeing as his contract is up after next season as well. Come back healthy and guns blazing to increase his perceived market value until that time.
If Kane doesn’t start they still have 12 NHL forwards that want to play, they may bring up Petersen to have 13 forwards and a second RC C and it doesn’t matter if he doesn’t play a lot, where as it does for maturing prospects
The structure of things seems odd to me, maybe they want to give Bowman a chance to see what he has at camp and go from there. Perhaps Brown and Stecher wanted to be in the org so bad they agreed to AHL time, but given it’s been years since they have been down, again that seems odd. Agreeing to being a 7 D is a different animal
After camp I bet a D probably moves. What makes most sense is if Bro seems capable of 2D probably Ceci, if not Kulak so Bro can play 3LD. I can’t see them signing Brown and Stecher to move them
They can have camp and decide. They can get by for a short time with paper transactions sending Perry Brown and Stecher down to get under the cap with Kane not on LTIR, run with 20 until they free cap up. They may get compliant then LTIR Kane and do nothing, but they still have 8 NHL D and the can is kicked down the road to when Kane can play
What would be ideal is if that 13th forward could also play defense.
I wonder if Josh Brown can play RW, or Stecher? Just a thought.
Almost no matter what, at least one of Brown or Stecher is getting AHL time — possibly a significant amount (my guess is Brown). And both of them would have been aware of that when they signed their contracts. I think they know that a factor of playing for a contending team is the likelihood of being waived or in the press box, as much as it is playing in EDM when there’s an injury/slump/rotation.
I think Stecher agreed for league min in order to give himself a better chance at the roster.
Presuming he’s 100% recovered from the cyst surgery, he should be 7D over Brown.
I’m not so sure about that. Definitely possible, but I could also see them as the 6/7D for most of the season if Ceci or Kulak is traded as part of a deal for a 2RD.
Even then Stecher/Brown would likely become the 7/8D after the deadline, but I personally wouldn’t be surprised to see them as the 6/7D from TC through the deadline.
If one of Ceci or Kulak is traded as part of a deal for a 2RD then Stecher and Brown remain 7D/8D, no?
Yes, I should have said Kulak and Ceci. Both would probably need to go in a trade in order to open enough cap for a 2RD upgrade.
If they send Ryan down as opposed to Stecher, they can have a 21 player roster (if Broberg/Holloway do come in at apx $1,920,00 – which would mean at least one, if not both, take 1-year deals)
i can easily see them platooning one or two of those players with Perry within the 12/13/14 F spots depending on final roster size… gives old man Perry some load management and gets some reps for the young un.
I’m also not sure Ryan can handle 82 games anymore
I’d bet money he can’t. Neither should Perry. They effectively have two salaries totalling over $2M to play 4RW for them on a team in desperate need of cap space. When Holland gave Ryan a 2nd year I was certain it was a thank you for taking a lower cap hit on year one and the plan was to send him to Bakersfield as a player coach kind of vet but with Perry as his replacement I don’t see the sense from an on ice perspective.
Maybe it’s an effort to platoon the veteran in the bottom six, have either guy draw in based on the opponent and how they’re holding up at the time.
Still, not optimal from a cap allocation standpoint. Guys like Alex Nylander, Tyler Johnson, Cal Clutterbuck (!), and Kevin Lebanc remain unsigned at this point.
The Oilers could have used Clutterbuck’s agro. Perry played more TOI/GP and was more productive last season though
Cal’s a better skater. And has surprisingly similar sh%. Younger (lol). Pretty sure he does well on the PK (haven’t verified yet). Could have been an interesting plan B if Perry didn’t extend. He’s been a very good, under the radar player. Or at least has been for a long time; I had a love-hate relationship watching him punk our top players way back when he was in MIN.
Unless they end up platooning him with Perry for mutual load management, I think Ryan knows he would be destined for the farm as a mentor for the youts (to quote My Cousin Vinnie)… I think this was an understanding when he signed his last deal.
Also, as far as opening day roster (different from opening GAME roster, the following players could potentially make bonuses. Bourgeault, Perry, Grubbe, Petrov and Akey – IIRC. So, due to Cap rules if they are likely to see playing time in the NHL at some point this season, are probable on the opening day roster as a paper transaction at least. if they are on the opening day roster, they do not have to account for the bonuses on the Cap until they are earned. If they join the team after that without being on the opening day roster, we have to allow for the full bonuses under the Cap whether earned or not.
Do I have that correct? if so, I suggest Petrov and Akey should be no worry that way, as both are a long way from being ready for NHL action. Borgeault is a distant bell – probably next year is his shot, but you never know. same for Grubbe, I think, although being a Center may make him marginally more likely (but still not probable) to asee the big club this season. that would leave Perry, who will definitely see the big club, unless his wheels have completely fallen off and he is materially passed in Camp by a young hotshot…
For prudence’s sake, I would try to include Borgeault, Grubbe and Perry on the opening day roster, if it is at all possible to cover all the bases – stuff happens in a long season and we haven’t seen any of them in camp yet to see how close they might currently be…
Bourgault was traded.
I think only Perry and Savoie are the only players with bonuses who the team would be concerned about getting on the opening night roster.
For clarity, ensuring players with performance bonuses are on the roster is not linked to the opening night roster, its linked to when the team enters LTIR as its about setting the LTIR bonus pool.
If the team is not using LTIR to start the season, its a non-issue at that time.
Akey will be heading back to junior before the end of camp.
They won’t worry about Petrov or Grubbe – neither have a chance to play NHL games this season.
Bourgault’s been traded but Savoie needs to be added to the list as he has (1) real performance bonuses – I think $1MM and (2) he is actually likely to be called up.
Lets not forget, this only matters if they are in LTIR – ensuring a player with a performance bonus is on the roster so their bonus doesn’t hit the cap only matters when setting the LTIR bonus pool – at the time they enter LTIR
The presumes there is room for a 13th forward (let alone a 14th forward).
If the two Brad’s are Lavoie’s close comparable then maybe they should trade him away, if they even can, but there’re probably no takers. Now that Savoie is an Oiler, I can’t see anywhere he would be a fit except if he could beat Corey Perry out for the 4RW slot. However, if they want to try Savoie on the third line, we will probably see Connor Brown drop down to 4RW. He could be the 13th forward in place of Perry IMO. But then again, he would need to beat out the 40-year-old.
He passed through waivers twice last season. He has no trade value. Though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t still become an NHL regular.
He has to beat out Perry for that opportunity and I believe he should. But Pederson could possibly replace both of Ryan & Perry on the roster as a 13th forward, .
I think he only cleared the one time – didn’t hit 10 games played or 30 total days on the roster to re-set the waiver need.
Agreed, zero trade value until he clears again and then a Samorukov /Kostin type trade could be an option – two players that had cleared waivers.
I think it was twice. According to Puckpedia was called up Nov 15th and again Dec. 30th (then sent down Dec 31st for the 2nd time, though without playing).
Yes, though I’d still call that ‘no trade value’ as no team was willing to take either player for free. But young tweeners like that do indeed become useful NHLer sometimes.
Sure but, after clearing the first time, he wouldn’t need to re-clear, and could up and down without needing waivers, until he played 10 NHL games or spent 30 (aggregate) days on the NHL roster – I don’t think he hit either.
OK, I didn’t realize the 30 days was aggregate.
I agree he has no trade value but he could have marginal trade value after he clears as the acquiring team could place him in the AHL.
Similar to Samorukov and Kostin who each cleared waivers at league min and then were traded.
Can’t imagine he has any trade value until after he clears waivers.
There is a line on a roster spot with the current roster due to him being league min and a $375K cap savings over Perry.
I don’t think they go that way (12F with a league min player and Holloway on a one-year deal replacing Perry and Ryan on the opening roster).
I imagine the first call up is Petersen because of experience and that he is bigger than Hamblin who given isn’t an offensive player really isn’t suited to the NHL at his size. LP also plays RC and that’s the #2 need on the team. Also they seem to want more assertive players now, James is too small to play that game
Ralph is hard to gauge. He has the size and shot, I think it depends if they think he has rounded his game out enough for the NHL. I don’t watch Condor games, but I have the feeling it’s still him skating hard enough all of the time. He’s not Ovi so floating won’t fly, I hope he has the summer of his life on cardio
Philp I’m sure will get a look as soon as/if he can get back to where he was. He’s really what they are looking for and need like Petersen, but Lane is a known quantity at the NHL level and Noah isn’t, even though only a year younger
Also I heard on Gregor him talking to a scout. From what he said I think Savoie needs an AHL season to develop his game and body more. The scout and Curlock both like the player and think he will make it, but think he needs to get stronger. It’s usually that for most young players, but especially a small one. He needs legs like Marty St Louis!
Hamblin (31) and Lavoie (7) both got NHL games last season while Pederson did not. They’re both younger than Pederson as well. I wouldn’t be so sure Pederson is at the top of the call up list.
True. I don’t know of course but Hamblin doesn’t seem to fit the new MO
Maybe Lavoie, could spell off Perry, but that’s not ideal for development sitting in the PB
That may be true, but Pederson doesn’t fit the ‘new MO’ any better does he? I don’t think he does.
Noah Philp fits…..
You may be right about Savoie needing a full year in the AHL. You would have thought they would have played Petersen ahead of Hamblin last year, but they didn’t. Maybe we should add Petersen to the list of competition for Lavoie I can see Petersen making it because of his versatility playing RHC & RW, especially if Philp needs time to get up to speed. I guess that depends on Derek Ryan & Corey Perry too.
Maybe it was a Woody thing with Hamblin over Pedersen having coached the former
Hamblin played 31 games – Woody was gone long before Hamblin was done as an Oiler last season.
Woody was there when he came up though. KK had his extended look and sent him down. I’m not sure how that affects him or Pedersen next season
Woody played Hamblin for 5 of the 14 games he coached last season – KK gave him an extended look of 26 games.
Point being that I don’t think Hamblin playing over Pederson was a Woody thing, right?
Pederson – he’s from Saskatchewan, not Gothenburg.
Does this mean you won’t take umbrage with me correcting your spelling?
Like when you use alot instead of a lot, or confidant instead of confident on a daily basis?
Man you like to police these days, don’t you?
Never have taken umbrage on spelling mistakes, etc.
The name was spelled wrong 3-4 times in a post – I would think, one would prefer to be informed of the correct spelling just as I was when I have been incorrect on names in the past.
Peterson must be from Gothenberg.
This was all true last year and Hamblin played 31 NHL games and Pederson played zero
Stylistically, Philp is exactly what is needed as the Derek Ryan replacement at 4C – Pederson isn’t (although a more skilled offensive player).
Brad Isbister only played 53 NHL games… wow!
If this is only hopeful 2 on the prospects pool list it is clear how very difficult it is to crack a championship lineup from the farm. Obviously miles better than say 2012.
These young men put their souls into the dream, only to find out they may not make it, these series are clearly demonstrating that fact. Hope… it’s a dangerous thing Andy.
Off topic note, been listening to Jackson Browne lately… not sure why LT but when I hear These Days I think of you, great song. Not that way, more in a Harvest Moon kinda way. I hope you are well and enjoying your summer.
Cheers!
Love Jackson Browne and love These Days. Late for the Sky album is a joy. They all are really.
Agreed… and I misread your chart regarding Brad… makes sense now. Stop Making Sense LT… that was yesterday!