Today, the Edmonton Oilers lost Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway to the St. Louis Blues. Management is going to take some acidic verbal from fans and media, and with good reason. The offseason brought many things, but young players who can play feature roles in the NHL have high value.
The organization got caught doing what it’s done for exactly one forever: Squeezing the money with young players who are under control. This would be a good time for management to adjust their thinking in this area. On the other hand, there’s a new and delightful crinkle in all of this. More after the jump.
MONEY, MONEY, MONEY
Since Peter Chiarelli signed Milan Lucic, the Oilers have been in cap turmoil. Ken Holland had to deal with the pandemic, but even cutting him some slack for that mountain of difficulty the McDavid years have not included sound economic thinking in the corridors of power.
I would like to see this organization have a care about that extra money under the cap. It matters. Top up at the deadline. I know, I know, what about the defense? Well, I suggested last week running Evan Bouchard as a Stone Alone would benefit the team overall, and that gives the club at least one sliver of daylight. Ride the Nurse-Bouchard train and allow Ekholm to wheel with Ty Emberson or Troy Stecher (or other).
- Nurse-Bouchard
- Ekholm-Emberson
- Kulak-Stecher
I think that’s the play. Now, I also think the team might need to have a longer look at Max Wanner this fall, because he can play at a high level. Wanner proved much at age 20 in the AHL last season.
As well, it seems to me the Oilers’ brass might want to borrow a page from old Glen Sather’s strategery. When you have a need, give a young player some minutes and see where it lands. In Oilers history, names like Charlie Huddy, Geoff Smith, Steve Staios and Jan Hedja arrived in town to little fanfare but showed well enough to blossom as NHL players.
Today will be a tough one for the organization. Fans are rightfully disappointed. I think getting angry at the current management (Stan Bowman) is ridiculous, but you do you if that’s who you blame. For me, Ken Holland was on the job when the squeeze happened (as it did with Ethan Bear, Evan Bouchard and on and on and on and on) and let this be the Oilers last battlefield. Take care of your kids. You owe it to your family.
I wonder what we’ll talk about today!?!?!?! At noon, Sports 1440, we’ll have wall to wall Oilers talk on a day when you want to vent and we are here for you. I have an article coming at The Athletic today I believe you’ll like, will link in the comments section when it hits. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ summer of loud noises reaches apex with Blues’ Broberg, Holloway signings
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5711561/2024/08/20/oilers-holloway-broberg-blues/
Nice little find here.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4450828/2023/04/26/canucks-vasily-podkolzin-analysis/
Sucks to lose both guys but better to rip the cap bandage off now. Our bottom 5 forwards (excluding 3C), bottom pair dmen and 2G have to be making $1 – $1.5 million after Drai/McDavid/Bouch resign. They just have to. Walking from these offer sheets and trading Ceci is a step in the right direction. Trading Kulak no later than next summer and walking away from Skinner after one year also needs to be done.
I don’t blame Broberg for signing as he had a wall of 3 veteran NHL LHD paid $18 million in front of him (to quote Bruce McCurdy). After trading for Ekholm they should have dumped Kulak last summer and committed to Broberg at 3LD. It was time. Holland had a thing for Kulak and he screwed his own #1 pick over it.
Holloway had a similar wall in front of him (RNH, Kane, Skinner). Lots of guys took less to play in the Oilers bottom 6 – and in the top 6 – Skinner has 350 more goals than the kid. Holloway looked destined for the bottom 6 or even 4th line when Kane is healthy. Holloway is also still waivers exempt (less than 5 seasons or 160 games) and could be sent down at any time. Demotion is not an unimaginable situation in his mind.
This is the price of success baby. You always wanted vets to play here – now they do – and it’s a big hurdle for young guys. In reality we picked Skinner, Podgolzin and a 3rd round pick over Holloway and a 4th. I think both sides made the right decision. Broberg is a loss but you can trace that outcome to the decision to keep Kulak last summer after we traded for Ekholm. The only way Broberg doesn’t sign that offer sheet is if the team put their trust in him last season as 3LD and played him. They didn’t and the outcome should surprise no one.
Good point about Holland and Kulak. He should have done what you said for Bro if he liked him, and he also should have replaced Ceci because it wasn’t working
Use Ceci and Kulak returns (Ceci had more value after last playoffs IMO) to try to improve 2 RD, and they also should have traded Foegele (who also had value after 23 playoffs) to give Holloway a bottom 6 spot. I saw Holloway being as good at hockey or better, although he probably wouldn’t have produced as much
Tough day. Good, bad… either way, still a tough day.
Some things in life are bad
They can really make you mad
Other things just make you swear and curse
When you’re chewing on life’s gristle
Don’t grumble, give a whistle
And this’ll help things turn out for the best
And…
Always look on the bright side of life
Always look on the light side of life
Song by Monty Python (1st verse)
I think it’s worth keeping in mind that, at least in my opinion, if Broberg and Holloway don’t get the exposure to the entire league during the Stanley Cup Finals, neither of these offer sheets happen.
It’s a cost of success.
And it couldn’t have exactly been predicted, in Fall 2023, that this team would be within two goals of hoisting Stanley.
(Yes, we could have tried to lock them up earlier this summer. But with all that exposure, Broberg/Ferris’s plan was probably locked in already.)
I heard on Oilers Now that EDM was inquiring on Buchnevich last TDL and St. Louis wanted Broberg and Holloway in return.
I think you are witnessing real hockey men, who aren’t afraid of their image or the media; trying to build a Stanley Cup Winning Team.
Window is maybe 6 years because of Connor, but the reality is I think they have identified the next 3 years as go time. You cannot lock up Broberg at double his value.
They move, they shake. I like it. We will see what hits the ice, but I think Edm will flourish early in the season and add at the deadline !
Stauffer referred to a possible pto on a dman that played for KK in the past. Anyone have an idea?
Edit- OilersNow today Bob was a guest on his show from vacation
Travis Dermott.
OK, interesting. Thank you!
Perhaps it will be one of:
Andy Wellinski
Anthony Bietto
or Jared Tinordi
I can’t think of who else this could possibly be referring to, but unlikely to be a contender for the top 8.
I think the loss of Broberg is going to hurt, especially if Nurse does play better going forward. I would take two Brobergs any day over one Nurse.
But I think Emberson looks like a very good acquisition. He may be the stabilizer that Nurse requires.
Well Nurse has proven a lot more than Broberg. Broberg has struggled to find traction in the NHL. I guess we will soon see if it was mismanagement or if Broberg just isn’t the goods.
The non-matching and moves made to replace Broberg and Holloway seem like very analytics based moves. I think fans tend to generally lean towards younger players being better, but we also have emotional attachment and hope for these players so we probably assign more value to younger players than their actual worth.
I’m not sure whether the Oilers are right or wrong here in their assessment, but it will be neat to follow to see the results.
Honestly, losing two first rounders to offer sheets is approaching Reinhart for a 1st and 2nd levels of asset management.
No, it’s not.
Unless you think Holloway and Broberg will be as good as Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo. And take on the same kind of long-term value contracts (seriously, Eriksson Ek’s contract is one of the best in the league).
I don’t.
hyperbole at it’s best
Gustav Lindstrom? Thumbs up or thumbs down? LT says thumbs up.
I think they have enough tweener 3RD options.
Dermott will almost assuredly be at camp on a PTO – truth be told, if another depth d-man is needed, its on the left side.
It’s interesting that you use “tweener.”
With the exception of Emberson all of the defenders acquired have more NHL experience than Broberg and haven’t been in the AHL in some time.
Lindstrom showing some very positive analytics, which is why LT seemed very convinced that he will make vs a positive contribution with EDM.
I’m interested to see if some Martin Marincins can make this team the money puck Oilers, and if they will stick. Or if EDM will be happy to become a collection of ex Otters and Golden Bears, crony puck if you will. Usually the cronies win and the corgis lose.
Looking at the LW situation in STL, does anyone honestly think Holloway is going to be able to force the issue there compared to EDM?
I don’t harbour any ill will to him, but don’t see a blatantly clear path to promotion in STL vs EDM. In fact, I see him having a better chance by the end of his new contract to having solidified a top-6 LW spot in EDM than STL.
Is playing centre a better option for him (BAK testimony/results aside)?
Schenn and Faksa are old at centre. They prefer playing Buchevich on wing. Devorski and the other young centres need some seasoning. And they may prefer playing Schenn on wing as he gets older.
There is a centre spot there to be potentially grabbed for the long term.
This is a good spot for both of them.
If they both hit it could be huge for both them and st Louis.
We’ll see.
Emberson.
The 30 game sample last year in which he played top 4 minutes, put up 10 points and a -4 on the worst team in the league, has me intrigued that there could be a Dman that isn’t just 3rd pairing.
His 22-23 AHL season in which he was the top defensive Dman in the East while putting up 27 points in 67 games further moves the needle for me.
Wouldnt it be something if this guy plays 2RD and is not out of his league.
I think having Coffey as Defense coach Ekholm as someone to learn from, will go a long ways for him to reach his ceiling whatever it is.
There is a non-zero chance that he starts the season at 2RD and, in fact, as of right now, probably the front-runner.
Stauff said he’s going to play.
Stauff also said they are 100% bringing in a PTO d-man but mainly because they need enough bodies to get through the early exhibition games. He said its likely to be someone that Knob has experience with and has played quite a bit in the NHL recently – so, Travis Dermott.
I think it’s quite possible he can help. He’s had college and two AHL seasons, just turned 24. If we had drafted him we would want him to be ready for the NHL now
Who knows. The Blues might not have enough themselves to sign their own prospects in the future, so they too might be taken advantage of by another team. Which would be great comeuppance. But Edmonton did well in the situation, with what they could do, that is.
6 players from last years team now gone. Thats an amazing amount to me. Seems like we’re now a 8-6 80’s type team and not today’s 3-2 type team.
Can’t confirm that the boys are there but it seems Lauren and Celeste are together on coast in France.
Lol. You got a spy network?
Instagram.
Not sure why it’s of interest, beyond a tangential level, but it’s quasi-related to the Oilers so there it is.
Always good to see the McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s hanging out on vacations (and honeymoons kind of) in my opinion.
I see lots of posts solely about music and about booze and whatnot, not related to the Oilers in any way whatsoever, not even tangentially or quasi-related….
Nope, just their public Instagram accounts…..
Beniers signs for 7 X $7.1 million in Seattle.
Shayna Goldman explains why this is a good idea.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5712799/2024/08/20/kraken-matty-beniers-extension/?source=user_shared_articleKraken sign Matty Beniers to 7-year extension worth $49.98 million: Why deal was worth the risk
Sure, but the Chandler Stephenson was definitely not.
Definitely a head scratcher.
Interesting exchange on at the end of the first segment on Oilers Now tonight.
Stauff is on vacation so Escott is hosting. Given the news of the day, Stauffer called in to be a guess on the first segment.
As they were finishing, Escott says (paraphrasing) “I’ll let you get back to your vacation but I might have to give you a call if the Drai extension drops”.
Bob responds with “I’ll give you a heads up…… way to keep your mouth shut” – to me intimating that may happen before month’s end.
Without clarity on Kane I can definitely see why they didn’t match either and dumped Ceci. Better to have some wiggle room than get caught in a tighter spot than they were.
Looking at the situation, I can see them running a 21 man roster plus Kane on IR to start, possibly rotating some players in and out every few games to give them extended auditions. This allows them to bank some cap space for he deadline. Eventually they will likely revert to a 22 man roster if Kane is healthy or they need to load manage due to nicke dup players and whatnot, probably after Xmas I would think.
I think Holloway made a mistake, his path to the top 6 on a cup contender was right there. Good for him short term but I think he will regret it in the long run. I totally think it was great for broberg big payday and better opportunity. Holloway should have pushed for more money.
How is top 4 on a team missing the playoffs a better opportunity then top 4 on a Stanley cup contender?
That’s how I see it
If they kept Bro I think he would very likely ended up 3LD and Kulak gone as well
If Holloway showed offense much better on the Oilers
I keep reading that the Blues are destined for failure.
However a look at their young depth indicates otherwise.
Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are the goods while Jake Neighbours scored 27 goals as a 21 year old.
They have a plethora of former first round picks including Zach Bolduc, Jimmy Snuggerud, the THREE first round picks they drafted in 2023 headlined by Dalibor Dvorsky who scored 45 goals in 52 games with Sudbury last season and drafted three defensemen in the first two rounds in 2024.
With Broberg and Holloway joining the band, their retool should produce results fairly quickly.
Binnigton delivered a.913 2.84 last season and they have few long term anchor contracts to get in the way plus zero dead cap.
They should be close and are being built for long term success.
Not destined for failure. But definitely destined for the mushy middle.
Dvorsky goal totals look great but when looking at elite junior lines you have to wonder who is zooming who and Musty is definitely the one zooming
Otherwise Lots of good but not great prospects.
And of course they probably gonna get offer sheets against them by 31 teams. Old boys club isn’t gonna like what they did.
This reads like they have three good players, a bunch of magic beans, some end of the roster players from the Stanley Cup finals, and an unheralded/inconsistent goaltender holding the fort against a “few long term anchor contracts.“
Some people see only what they want to see.
Are those the people that saw Rafferty as a better bet than Bouchard?
Broken record you are. Find 8 random teams and pump up their top prospects. You don’t think you’ve been figured out?
Holloway took the money and ran. He said they were way off in contract negotiations, so he was pushing for more and he didn’t feel he had any chance to play in the top six. Best of luck to him with the Blues. Hope he doesn’t get a case of the blues in St. Louis.
The St. Louis offer was potentially $3.75 million dollars better for Holloway than Edmonton’s offer for a player with career earning of $1 million
Edmonton. 3 x $1 million = $3 million
St. Louis 2 x $2.25 million + $2.25 million QO = $6.75 million
Plus the opportunity to play a higher earning position at centre.
Bowman definitely made chicken soup with chicken shit.
That said, the events that led to the offer sheets are embarrassing. Losing two first rounders for basically nothing is stunningly poor asset management.
It’s on Holland and Jackson mostly. Bowman came in so late He had to react to what was already motion
Taking emotion out of it, and not including the other young players traded for this summer, option:
A) Broberg (23), Holloway (22), cap hit = $6.87M; or
B) Podkokzin (23), Emberson (24), 2nd & 3rd rd. picks in 2025, 3rd rd. 2028, Fisher (19) + $4.97M in cap space.
Option B sure seems like the logical choice.
Cap says yes
Oilers fans will be thankful for the cap space when the big 3 sign their new contracts and there’s no wiggle room moving forward.
Long term; yes.
Medium term; yes.
This coming season? – harder to think that if you also think this coming season was primed to push for the cup.
Podkolzin flopping can be overcome without much difficulty but that 2RD spot looks even more precarious than it did a week ago.
With all these young players getting a payday earlier it sounds like the offer sheet is a real threat now. If it starts a trend this should free up older vets that could use Edmonton as a refueling spot for that final contract like Skinner just signed. Lock up Leon-Bouchard-Connor and they will come. We will be a top 6 threat for 10 years. Enough with the teasing announce the Leon signing Now.
When has the “old men” model, a bunch of graybeards, ever worked in the hard cap era?
I think one wants a normal distribution for the age curve with a mean in the 27-28 range excluding your top two forwards, your top D, and your top G.
How many goals does Skinner score this year with PP2 time?
Skinner scores 5×5 goals
He’s amongst the very best at it.
I agree with you, LT, on the defense pairings.
Nurse is paid as 1LD. He should be treated as such. Give confidence to build confidence.
If Bouchard is going to get a massive amount of money, he has to get it as part of a league-leading heavy minutes pair with Nurse, not Ekholm (who is great but years older). Giving Bouchard long-term high end money while playing with Ekholm will hurt the team as Ekholm ages out (and Nurse flounders).
Ekholm, as a steady hand, should bring up the new guy. Ek can handle it (playing with Ek moved Bouchard out of suspect territory). I don’t think Nurse can… or should.
The new guy should get the Bear treatment: knock, knock.
Agree, You never know how it will turn out until you try it but this is how they should start TC and the season.
There were 106 right shot defensemen that played 20 or more games last year.
Emberson was 60th on TOI/GP, averaging 18:33. That was about 1:30 less than Ceci.
He’s already played 2RD minutes. And didn’t get crushed on 5v5 GF%… on a bad team. Very interesting player. Surprised SJS traded him.
Yup. My mistake was when I went searching for a young cost controlled RD I put 40 game minimum last season into my parameters every time I went through the drill.
Emberson’s name never came up, of course, with his injury that I was totally unaware of. (Actually I was totally unaware he even existed).
Question for you. Given what just happened when do you start negotiations to sign Emberson given that he is a UFA Group 6 who needs to play a minimum of 50 games this season (if I understand that correctly) to not be able to walk after this year?
Do they try and extend him out of TC, wait until Christmas, walk him to the end of season and hope he doesn’t get hurt?
Which way would you go?
Audition. Sign mid-season. Depending.
I guess it would depend on whether they have any RHD prospects and what they think of them. One thing about the upcoming core contracts is that it really limits what we can offer the non-core players. The player had a few injuries last season… SJS fans said OK things about him on reddit, nothing glowing. I’d offer him term and low dollars early, before TC even, before anyone knows anything new (other than he’s injury free). Risk for him if he pops, risk for us if he crashes. Young RHD with NHL games in a top-4 role under his belt, scoring at a decent pace… with Ekholm on the roster… and a very good group of forwards in front…
Well, hey, I did find someone from The Hockey Writers talking nice about Emberson:
Ty Emberson: Everything to Know About Oilers’ New Acquisition (msn.com)
Played for KK in Hartford.
I’d do the same. End of TC if Bowman wants to see for himself. Nothing that can’t be buried but some term – maybe 3-4 years.
RFA’s almost never sign 3 year or longer deals after their ELC if the salary is less than $2 million. At most they’d go 2 years at a range that could be buried with little or no cap affect. The only exception appears to be the odd goalie. There is generally little incentive for them to do so.
I am surprised if that was actually the offer to Holloway as reported. No way he would sign that even with no offer sheet from St. Louis.
The root of what transpired was questionable drafting in the top 15 in 2019 and 2020. The players selected had size and athleticism but lacked offense. These types of prospects were likely going to take time to develop. On a team in win now mode, a GM that prefers veterans and matriculating prospects, and an owner willing to spend to the cap they were inevitably going to get squeezed. It does not excuse the management group from this blunder as they still should have “taken care of the kids” but in my opinion had they drafted with slightly more weight on skill I don’t believe this predicament would have happened in the first place. Lets walk through it:
Broberg was a stretch at 8 based on ranking, they had drafted Bouchard the year before, and the forward prospect group was relatively bare at the time. I was surprised by the pick at the time and still am, particularly with names such as Boldy, Caufield, and Zegras. Perhaps they wanted to stay away from the USHL with such a high pick or Holland liked his skating ability that much, I don’t know.
Fast forward to 2020, with two top d-men being selected in 2018 and 2019 a forward prospect was likely. At 14 it wasn’t clear cut, they preferred Holloway’s speed over Mercer’s skill. The defensemen available were perhaps overlooked as they were somewhat forced to be fixated on a forward leaving names such as Guhle (40pts in 64gms) and Schnieder (right shot 42pts in 60gms) on the board due the previous draft.
This is fodder but let’s just say they drafted Boldy in 2019 and Schnieder in 2020, I highly doubt they would have went unsigned and one could argue we wouldn’t have needed to sign Kane or subsequently Skinner. The line up would theoretically look as such:
RNH McD Hyman
Boldy Drai Arvid
$2.5M Henrique Brown
Janmark $1.75M Ryan
Perry
Ekhlom Bouch
Nurse Schneider
Kulak Emberson
Stetch
Skinner
Pic
Total = $87M incl. Neal/Camp buyouts and dollars in the 3LW and 4C to sign proper players for those specific roles.
So to recap with Broberg, they:
a) Shouldn’t have drafted him.
b) Compounded that by being pigeon holed into drafting Holloway.
c) Should have played him more.
d) Should have signed him earlier but couldn’t because of c). and
e) Hope this isn’t the case but suspect by American thanksgiving most of us will be saying, should have matched as the right side will be leaking more oil than my grandma’s 88 plymouth.
Perhaps cursed from the beginning and best to move on.
From a Leafs blog (Toronto Maple Leafs Lose Out on Laine + The Oilers Perfect Summer Continues (editorinleaf.com))
“The only thing the Oilers did wrong this summer was sign Stan Bowman to be their GM. Not only is Bowman a bad executive, he should not be allowed to work in the NHL and should never have been re-instated.
That awful and self-destructive move aside, their summer has been fantastic. They shipped out Codi Ceci and even got a useful player from the Sharks. They signed Victor Ardvidsson, Jeff Skinner and Corey Perry, all smart moves.
But their smartest move was not matching the offer sheets the Blues proffered to Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway.Now, a lot of ink will be spilled today to praise the Blues, but that is only because ex 1st round picks are incredibly overvalued. In reality, neither Holloway or Broberg is above a replacement player and thus the Blues have overpaid both of them drastically.
The number-one rule of NHL roster building is to never, ever, pay non-star players above the league minimum. Unless the players are on deals long enough to eventually turn team-friendly (which neither of these deals is) then this is a mistake 100% of the time.”
Neither Holloway nor Broberg earned their contract. But the short term and buyouts at 1/3 of price and low price in picks makes this a very low risk offer sheet for blues to sign. Worst case scenario blues will buy out broberg next season and have an under 800k cap penalty for following two years and be out a second round pick.
The fact Laffs fans are as delusional (or more) about Oilers players than TML is amusing.
We’re not talking about the Devin Shores or the Taylor Becks of the league.
Offense was and still is a huge question mark for both players.
You pay for offense.
I’m still not convinced either player has enough bat but we’ll see.
I suggest now that we have a pretty good idea of what the coaching staff thinks of Broberg.
Recall that Broberg first made his unhappiness public when KK didn’t play him after taking the reins from Woody. Holland had him up here, clearly hoping that KK could find him some minutes, and make his job of re-signing the lad a lot easier, but even that economic pressure from the management suite was not enough for KK to trust the kid during The Great Comeback.
Holland instead was forced to send him down. To Bro’s and the Condors’ credit, he seemed to take a step forward developmentally during that final stint in Cali.
But it was still deep into the playoffs, with the chips down, before KK could bring himself to pencil “Phil” on the roster sheet.
The off-season hits and they then lowball him on their opening contract offer. SOP I’m sure, but interesting that they started with a number that could be fully buried in the AHL. That sends a message too and not a message the Broberg camp would be delighted to hear.
I think if KK liked Broberg as much as many on this blog do, he would still be an Oiler. If they thought he had the kind of upside many here are claiming, then the contract number doesn’t worry them that much, he could quickly out-perform it. They clearly didn’t think that was possible. Nor would it have got to that point. there would have been much more urgency in the original negotiations.
Now the reality is of course more nuanced than I’m presenting here. Cap management clearly played a massive role in the decision. I’m only looking at one aspect of the situation. That at no time did I see the love for this player from the org that is present in the Oilogosphere. Maybe from Holland, who drafted him, but other than that, very little.
player didn’t want to be here. And they got caught with an offer sheet that was way higher than anyone could imagine, They are trying to get guys to take team friendly deals which most of the vets have been taking but these two did not want to go along with the plan. So the cost to the team was not just 7 mil cap they didn’t have. It’s the cap cost of our core players that we have to sign over next two seasons that we are hoping each player will shave a million or two off per year just to keep team together
Accounts are the Paul Coffey was a big fan of Broberg but perhaps that was the media presuming.
Coffey might have been a fan of Broberg’s potential, but back in November, he was probably very influential about Broberg not being in the line up and probably very much on board with the decision to send him to the minors to get more ice time and not sit in the press box.
Coffey would also have been one of the key people in on the discussion as to whether Broberg’s contract offer should be matched. I would suspect on balance, he supported this decision.
I haven’t heard/read anything either way. My leading assumption would be KK doing his darnedest to restore stability had him locked into a six D three pair mindset. Kids need not apply.
This quote directly from Coffey combined with Knoblauch in several press availabilities saying Coffey handles the defense leads me to believe that Coffey was a big part of the recommendation to send Broberg down. Knoblauch and Holland make the final game line up and roster decisions respectively, but they likely leaned heavily on Coffey’s views on the matter.
Coffey also made the decision to put him in the lineup, and sit Vinny in the Western Conference Final and the Stanley Cup Final….
Yup, after Broberg had played close to 50 more games in the AHL, and he still sat him for the first 15 games of the playoffs and only when Desharnais showed struggles (and possible injury issues) in the 3rd round did he make the switch. A player the Oilers didn’t think was worth $2 million to their team (or even less since Vinnie probably would have stayed if the Oilers had offered say $1.6). The Oilers staff were probably all happy that Broberg had progressed to likely be a regular this next season and perhaps even play Top 4 RHD at the right price point.
I never said Coffey didn’t like Broberg, just that he probably agrees that Broberg is not now nor will likely be worth close to 4.5 million for the next 2 seasons based on the Oilers cap situation and team make up.
Sounds like acquiring Fischer was a bigger deal to Bowman than it appeared on first glance.
Been following his career since he was a kid. seen him play “over a hundred times.” Injured in his draft year so went in a lower round than his talent would indicate. Has seen him play in South Bend too. Knows him well enough to speak of his character, which he rates highly.
I’m definitely on board for an ‘opposite Reinhart’ move.
I would feel a lot more comfortable if Emberson was our 3RD to start the year. Unfortunately I think he is going to be playing above his level for most of the season. If we can get a serviceable 2RD then I think this team has ironed out most of the weak spots from last year.
That said, I think where we will really miss Broberg is 2 years from now where he could potentially be solidifying our top 4 with Nurse and Bouchard. With our current lack of prospects in the system, we may soon be back to the never ending search for our Klefbom replacement.
He could be 3RD with Stecher at 2RD.
Also, not the ideal starting position – not even close.
If clear that a legit 2RD remains the big hole on this team.
Bowman is clearly aware but, from his words, if we take them at face value, he want to to give the acquisitions the opportunity and will go from there.
He was clear that he wants a strong D “for the stretch drive”.
Question: why did the Oilers get an additional pick and prospect from STL in the process for future considerations?
Leverage created by trading Ceci.
Explain. As in the Oilers use the threat of waiving a signed Broberg unless STL payed up?
Ceci trade meant they had the cap space to match the offers. Bowman then turns to Armstrong and says “I’m matching, but I’ll let you have them if you sweeten the pot.” Negotiations ensue. Voila, another 3rd and a prospect Dman Stan knows well.
Yup.
And I agree on your earlier post that letting Broberg go was a result of their assessment of his ceiling as much as their cap restraints. Teams find ways to keep the ones they really value.
Time will reveal if they were right in making that call.
I can sure see the potential Broberg has, and I like the style of player Holloway is – big, fast, has some skill and edge
I also remember over many years having the same feelings about a lot of Oiler hopefuls. I can’t get past that niggling thing in the background that neither are going to hit their full potential
Holloway because offense has always been the question, and Bro because he has a huge tool kit but is kind of an odd duck of a player, and struggles with the physical side of things still, even with that size and those boots
We’ll see. Both will have careers, not sure how impactful
Holloway scored at an exceptional rate in his draft +1, until he buggered up his hand.
Broberg’s offense in the AHL has been better than Klefbom’s.
Yes I know. But that has to translate. They are young, we wait
Maybe r Oilers do another reclamation project by signing Ryan Johansen? Seems very similar to EKane’s situation a few years ago. Could be great value if they can sign him for cheap. Or a waste of money?
He apparently needs major surgery according to his agent,
They have launched a grievance through the NHLPA which could take months to sort out.
Bowman also said the path forward on Kane is completely between Kane and the doctors and management has no say in it.
He made it clear that he may not start season even without surgery but it’s simply but known right now.
They may start with him as a roster player or regular IR and accrue cap.
He did a good job at “explaining” some of the nuances of LTIR and how limitating it is and was also very clear about needing the cap flexibility to activate. LTIR is not feee cap for the year.
I didn’t find his comments about how little he knows about Kane’s immediate future particularly comforting.
Means the injury is more complicated than simply a sports hernia.
Kane is making sure to get a number of opinions from his doctors/surgeons before proceeding … measure twice, cut once is also true in medicine. Absolutely, that’s going to be guided by his doctors/surgeons; management can only wait to learn the outcome outcome once the surgery is complete.
The more complicated things are, the more I, as a manager, would want to be in the loop. I wouldn’t demand clarity of direction before all assessments are done, or any right to any decision-making, but rather simply staying informed on what those assessments say and Kane’s thoughts and final decision once it is made. He sounded waay more hands off than that. Could be BS, though, to buy space from the media, so who knows.
The headline sold it as an “update on Kane’s status” and then proceeded to be a long justification on why there was no update.
I see it as deflection. Pretty much have to know given the last week
To be fair, health information is legally protected. If Kane doesn’t want his business known to the whole world, then it’s his right to limit to can be shared. Doesn’t mean there isn’t dialogue going on between player and team, but it’s likely more of the nature of saying whether he is or isn’t going to get surgery, and then figuring out the plan from there on the team’s side.
Everything else is realistically not the team’s right to know, anymore than your boss can force you to disclose the results of your last colonoscopy.
There will be clarity at TC. Every player has to submit to a medical evaluation by the team’s medical staff to determine whether or not the player is fit to play.
If I understand correctly the player must agree to surgery but the team can declare the player unfit unilaterally.
I am presuming he’s not providing the full state of knowledge to the public on that one at this point.
When asked about the defensive group Bowman spoke about ensuring it was where they need it to be for the stretch drive. He also spoke about the new additions and Stecher re-sign and expressed they all need an opportunity to show what they can bring to the group.
I’m not sure a PTO is out of the question but I wouldn’t suggest a contract to Barrie or Schultz or Addison or whoever is coming.
Sounds to me like they will run with the current group and make moves in-season as needed.
Bowman is very sensible and logical. Rolled up his sleeves and went to work.
I’m fine with that. I think Stecher and likely Emberson are better than the 3 you listed. Stecher needs to find his inner Alex Carrier
The Ceci Emberson trade was likely on the table and discussed at the trade deadline. Would the Oilers have won the Cup is they had made it then?
The Oilers made the Ceci Desharnais trial switcheroo in February, so they were clearly musing that they were not good enough at right D.
Or they were testing Vinny to see if he was worth keeping knowing he was due for an extension?
He was clearly fatigued as the playoffs rolled on. Its why Coach benched him for Broberg and then went about splitting the 5v5 minutes of both bottom pairs.
Conjecture to continue your non-stop hating on Ceci
Now you’re making things up as you go along.
To be fair to Ceci, he wasn’t on the ice for a single PK goal against the entire playoffs. Doubt that would’ve been true of his replacement.
You won’t be recieving your damage deposit return
Getting tired of the “they should have been signed during the season “ verbal. Were they treated poorly? Absolutely. Were they developed poorly? Absolutely. And that’s a big reason why. In no way shape or form we’re either going to sign during the season. It’s been reported and explained by many why they wouldn’t. So let’s move on from that one.
There’s no “absolutely” to either of your statements.
They and many would disagree
Treated poorly? Give me a break!
What gen Z BS talk. They were treated like young players who were earning their way onto a Stanley cup contender. If Broberg and Holloway felt disrespected then they are more brittle than I can fathom
They should have signed them before July around what they were asking and proceeded from there
Even if that would have prevented the Skinner signing.
It may have
Maybe they didn’t want to sign. You don’t know that the Oilers didn’t try.
They did try, just not anything the player’s agents wanted
St Louis just made their task of re-signing Neighbours very difficult. Edmonton I think lacks the draft picks to offer sheet him next season, but the Blues are up against it now and are going to have to shed someone to re-sign him. Jake is projected to play top line and he’s seeing the new kids with their shiny new contracts. His will need to start at a 5.
The Oilers do not have the cap space to offer sheet someone with a big ticket.
Nor the draft picks.
STL currently has almost $3 million in free cap space with a full 23 man roster.
If the cap jumps another $5 million that rises to $8 million with Faksa, Kapanen and Suter coming off the cap for another $5 million.
And remember they will likely have Torey Krug and his $6.5 million on LTIR for the next 3 seasons.
Re-signing Neighbors won’t be a problem.
Armstrong just opened himself up for 31 G.M’s to offer sheet his smarty pants ass.
Armstrong would offer sheet his mother if it meant improving his team.
Unless he is proactive and signs Neighbours before he hits RFA status.
He has almost a year to do so and with $10 million in cap space that should not be a problem.
Krug is expected to miss the next season, no guarantees beyond based on the info cited. And you just proved my point that they are going to have to let players go to re-sign him. And they just made that next contract far more expensive because of the precedent they set of massively overpaying Broberg and Holloway. To the Blues, no such thing a 2nd contract, they should all be making veteran money at a young age 🙄
Smart GMs are locking up their core young players coming out of ELCs…not cheap bridge deals that create huge headaches later.
For example Holland should have locked up Bouchard on a 6 or 7 year deal like Beniers is getting in Seattle (7 X $7 million) rather than kick the can down the road.
Neighbors will get a deal somewhat like that and STL has oodles of cap space to do so.
(Note: the two deals regarded as the best value in the league are Makar and Quinn Hughes who signed 6 years deals coming out of their ELCs.)
Are you comparing Makar and Hughes to Broberg and Holloway? As per your usual DSF/HH style, you cherry pick the exceptions.
Virtually all contending teams rightfully budget more for their veterans compared to their RFAs. Until offer sheets become the norm and seniority is no longer valued, then most teams will continue to do so. What some define as huge headaches, others define as budgeting for and paying superstars what they are worth. Paying 7×7 as opposed to 5×3 then 9×4 could be seen as advantageous in either scenario, depending on the other contracts carrying and the window your team finds themselves in. Trying to simplify this as a pass/fail is your modus operandus (particularly when it involves a purported fail for the Oilers), but as usual is overly superficial analysis.
By the way, Bouchard’s contract is currently far better value than Makar’s. It won’t be later. We can live with that if it is instrumental in winning a Cup. Already helped the Oilers create a team that made it to game 7.
The same Bouchard you said was not an NHL player just 2 years ago?
Can’t commit risky cap to a term that leaks in to the Bouchard and Drai extension years.
Its a risk losing the young and developing talent that could impact the lineup right now but its a risk to commit the over-cap and the potential consequence of that risk is, well, much bigger.
Elliotte Friedman:
“On a busy hockey day in August, hearing even more news:
Seattle is working on getting an extension done with 2023 Calder Trophy winner Matt Beniers. Sounds like it’s in the area of 7 x $7M, probably around $50M.
Important bit of business for the Kraken”
Another GM locking up a young star early.
“Another GM locking up a young star early.”
Ahh Beniers, the player who you had pegged to be another McDavid. The player who the Kraken decided to burn a year of his RFA status by having him play 10 games at the end of their inagural year. The player who the Kraken have been trying to figure out what to pay a player who followed a 57 point season with a 37 point season.
Will Beniers be the next PLD?
Oilers have never once locked up a young star early.
Also Broberg and Holloway are young stars in the eyes of a fella with 31 favorite teams.
“mid August and goal posts are being slobbered all over in the Hair’s household”
It was a previous management group and a long time ago, but I recall Klefbom, and the Steve Austin triplets.
Leon. Draisaitl.
Ha, missed that one. Connor too!
It was sarcasm. Leon and Connor were both long termed out of ELC’s.
If we’re into stats, Emberson lead or was near the top of the Shark’s D in a lot of stats and wasn’t getting an O zone push
Appears to have been an analytics acquisition.
Great potential.
“The offseason brought many things, but young players who can play feature roles in the NHL have high value”
No, they provide the same value as a similar player at any age. The advantage is that you can get a lower contract AAV. But when that advantage disappears, it’s just like having another veteran.
Even if the initial contract offers that were posted are true, for one, they are not ludicrously low for 2 players who haven’t proven themselves. Getting the pair locked up for 4-5 would have been a bit excessive, in my opinion. 7 is bonkers. Second, and this is the important thing, if you are interested in staying with the team, you negotiate. Doesn’t sound like Broberg or his agent wanted to negotiate. All because he was beaten to a job. That entitled mentality.
The 2nd pair right D is the biggest concern and that’s a massive hole. They are going to have to pay a premium for it as I don’t see an internal solution.
The NHL is a business. I say good on Broberg for taking the (much much) better opportunity extended to him by St Louis. Oilers could have matched, but they chose not to. “At the end of the day, it was a business decision”, per Bowman. Now Broberg will be put in a position to succeed by an organization that clearly values him, not blocked by veterans or played on his off-side, and he got himself an extra 6 or so million dollars over 2 years while doing it. How can you possibly hold this decision against the guy?
As a fan of the team he spurned, I am entitled to hold it against him. Did people wish Pronger well when he asked out of Edmonton? He at least got us to game 7. Not sure why you would have any sympathy for Broberg. I seriously don’t wish him well, for multiple reasons. The better question is why would any Oilers fan continue to support him?
Assuming a young, unproven player should not get paid as much as proven veterans is not a massive failing of management, as several here would have us believe. Young players only have value when they accept team friendly contracts. When they are entitled, and another team is willing to endulge them, then you tell them to let themselves out.
Sounds as if Broberg and his agent were negotiating. They apparently offered $1.8 and the Oiler countered much lower. Broberg and his agent sought a second opinion, under the terms of the CBA, and a Stanley Cup winning GM viewed that Broberg was worth the risk of a 2 year 4.5 million plus contract while giving up a second round pick (and more apparently).
He asked for a trade (didn’t demand it), but still went down and played his best in Bakersfield and also when he came back up. He fully honored his commitment to the Oilers throughout his time in the organization.
Asked for a trade publicly. Never an honourable approach.
And we don’t know what we don’t know about negotiations. But I agree that if 1.8 was turned down, that seems incredibly short-sighted now
He didn’t ask for the trade publicly, he and his agent discussed this privately with the Oilers prior to December 3. The discussions were subsequently leaked to the press on December 3, but it is not clear who leaked it. Maybe his agent, maybe not. The Oilers have leaked stuff before.
It’s fair to be disappointed or upset about the outcome. It is even fair to disagree with the judgement of the player. But personally attacking the character of the player is really unfair based on the facts that the public actually knows.
Darren Ferris has also leaked stuff to the media, most notably and very publically with Mitch Marner.
Holloway+Broberg >> Jeff Skinner+Podkolzin
This is a Jeff Jackson fail 50% and a Ken Holland fail 50%.
Emberson for Ceci was happening anyways. The announcement was just delayed to put the screws on in the post Skinner signing negotiations with Holloway and Broberg.
The recovery from the blunder was okay. But it was a blunder, and the Oilers are worse off with Skinner and Podkolzin than with Holloway and Broberg.
Holloway and Broberg landed in a good spot though. I think Holloway could end up playing 2nd or 3rd line centre eventually in St. Louis. And Broberg with Parayko. Maybe not this year, but in a couple.
I agree. I’ve made it pretty clear I’m miffed about this on this blog and the primary reason is I am not looking forward to (what I think will be) years of watching Broberg do a lot for a rival. I could be wrong of course, and truth be told I wasn’t much of a fan of Broberg for a while. But I watched him closely in the finals (trying to pay extra attention to him when on the ice) and I became convinced he’ll be a big part of the future (top 4 minutes for over half a decade). To me, this one hurts.
— Correct. I’ve been surprised by the many trying to “frame” it differently.
— There is a prevalence of yeah-buts and what-ifs. Maybe not a fatal blow but to use sport analogy “they are going to have to play through the injury for the rest of their career”
Holloway Pod is a wash as it stands, except Holloway is heavier
Bro has the potential to be a bigger impact player than Skinner and is younger, but as it stands Skinner is an established goal scorer that can score 5v5, and Bro just got his first full time job by chicanery, and Skinner makes 1.5M less than the upstart
I agree this scenario was a blunder. They should have signed them and dealt them if they didn’t want them. Especially Bro, they must have known how much interest there was, could have got a bidding war going
No chance that Holloway and Pod are a wash.
Pod had a very nice rookie season and has regressed X2 since and Holloway was a MUCH better player in the AHL (and in the NHL) last season.
Even Lavoie was ahead of Pod last season – materially.
We’ll see. 22/23 they produced at the same rate in the NHL. Pod made the league a year earlier. A new opportunity might spark him, and a better team. I expect Holloway will get more points because usage this season, I’m more concerned about overall play for Pod
Holloway hasn’t quite dialed the two way thing in, Pod is supposed to have that game, we’ll see. It’s possible he shares 3 LW or rotates with Brown and Perry on RW depending on who’s going
For sure, Pod has the chance to be an impact player and even pass Holloway but he needs a re-set and a re-fresh. Maybe he hits the ice running and, boom, 3W – its not out of the realm of reasonable possibility but, to use your term “as it stands”, I don’t think the two players are wash – Holloway is well ahead, as it stands – that could change come December.
The Oilers are a better team with Jeff Skinner on it. Full stop. He alone will cover the cost of losing two tweeners who couldn’t find full time work on a Cup contender. He’ll lap Holloway in scoring very early in the year and through the full season his play will positively impact the teams goal differential in a larger way than Broberg.
Action Jackson got that for $3 million. Its the best offseason acquisition for the the cost in the NHL.
Skinner is a young 32 he has zero years worth of wear and tear of the playoffs. Besides the coach probably disliking Skinner strange move to buyout a 25 plus goal scorer. Skinner will be going balls to the wall to get that final payday. I see a fresh skinner coming out of the blocks Leon’s never had a sniper to dish his lovely passes. Depending on PP usage I see a easy 30 plus. Arvidsson-Henrique-Skinner>Foegele-McLeod-Holloway and it’s not close.
You keep saying the Ceci, Emberson swap was already in the works, what evidence do you have for this other than you just speculating
It’s all speculation.
The rumours were afoot for awhile that the OIlers had trade options for Ceci.
But there was never a mention of Emberson.
So Oilers real need was a top 4 right hand defender correct.
Broberg could have been jambed on right side. But at 4.5 on his off side?
so now what does a2nd, 3rd plus cap space but you?
is it a new Ekholm for the right side?
Maybe. They could also use a depth LHD for cover in case of injury.
So the #2 RHD went from a hole into a crater. Don’t disagree with the decisions that were made but I sure hope we don’t have to overpay for a stopgap
Yep. It sounds like Stan is ok entering the season with the current group.
Let’s hope Emberson goes full Toews/Graves/Forsling.
Stop gap would mean that we have a long term plan there, which they don’t
They consider all options carefully before moving forward.
Question for the group.
Through the whole month we spent here looking for a young RD with top 4 potential in a trade did anybody mention Emberson?
Just curious.
I don’t recall that
Maybe this is what having a functioning stats dept and a GM that listens to them looks like
If memory serves, I saw his name pop up a couple times earlier in the offseason, but I don’t recall who.
I had him on my list around the deadline and early in the offseason due to his performance since being claimed off waivers (I enjoy following waiver claims) but was completely convinced that SJ would have no reason to move on from him. A young, cheap & steady RD didn’t seem like something they’d want to move so I stopped considering him seriously. Shows you what I know 🙂
Thanks.
Perhaps credit Brad Holland and the pro scouting staff.
Bowman spoke about Knobby giving his opinion but I don’t think he identified the player.
That would be my guess. That and Parkatti and his team. They identified and Knoblauch was positive as well when consulted.
I only ask the question because, of course, this is a blog that gives strong emphasis to identifying through analytics and usually names emerge that were in the running at least. This time it seems like we missed in spite of long, long conversations about who to target so it will be doubly interesting to me to see him on the ice with the team.
IF there is a positive out of the past week I think it has to be that hockey operations management had to come together very quickly with a new GM on a project that was both time sensitive & had major implications for the franchise.
That is the sort of team building you can’t get from a weekend at the paintball theme park and hopefully it will pay dividends down the line.
Oilers will be just fine. This whole situation is far from ideal, but this team is very good.
I think the team is stronger than last year’s, we will see
The rookie wobble for Emberson really wouldn’t be different than Bro’s, I think he still has a way to go with the finer details. I was worried he would get lit up a bunch still. His board play and in contact is still shy
This is all on Holland and/or Jackson. Whoever you think was really in charge this past year.
This situation could have been avoided in so many ways:
1. Give Broberg and Holloway regular spots in the lineup or give them big minutes in Bakersfield. That’s on Holland, I think.
2. Don’t cap yourself out on the 1st day of free agency. Did we really need Skinner? Did we really need Henrique? This is on Jackson.
Bowman simply made the best of a bad situation. Time will tell if he made the right decision.
I would have matched on both and LTIRed Kane. We will see.
I think the Oilers lost too many young NHL players this summer. And all of Mcleod, Holloway and Broberg had plus NHL speed, which suddenly makes the Oilers look old and slow.
I think the main misstep in this series of events is signing Skinner. I can see why they would choose Henrique & Savoie over McLeod but the signing of Skinner struck me at the time and stands out now as an unnecessary use of a limited resource. An all-offense LW with no proven track record in the playoffs and a game that doesn’t scream “translates to playoff hockey” (hope I’m wrong) wasn’t a wise investment when you have 2 RFAs whose combined asks were reportedly around 3mil combined.
If they had skipped on Skinner, signed these two and STILL made the Ceci trade (heck, maybe even the Podkolzin trade, too), I think this team is not only set up brilliantly for this year, but for the future, as well.
the only misstep is Holloway. They really tried to shove a bad contract down his throat and should have backed off. Broberg did not want to be here
Jeff Skinner will be 33 years old come playoff time…..I agree.
Your last sentence is so spot on.
He will be 33 come playoff time and, presuming health (and he’s a better bet to stay healthy than Holloway) will massively outproduce him this season.
Jeff Skinner has the real potential to be one of the best value contracts in the league.
The misstep (which isn’t really as he could be fully buried) was Perry and the couple of hundred grand overpay on Janmark.
Skinner and Arvidsson took discounts to come here. I would much rather have their contracts than Holloway at over 2
Alright, Arvidsson I get but the point is that Holloway didn’t have to be over 2. Had they not signed Skinner and instead used that 3mil to re-sign Holloway and Broberg to their reported asks (1.2 x 1 and 1.8 x 2 respectively), then we’d have a forward group with a better mix of youth and experience.
If that is really what they wanted, massive fail, full stop. But that doesn’t take away from the signing of those 2 forwards, or Henrique, Brown and Janmark
Broberg and Holloway were given the exact same opportunities you claimed that they didn’t have
Ridiculous to put events on one man. But if we want to examine a way that would have given bro a role, its not even Nurses contract, as a smaller nurse contract probably feeds into RD not into bro. Its signing Ek, or not trading Kulak.
The issue is really about being too good for Broberg to earn a spot. So whose fault is that?
Louie has his ‘shooter mentality’
I think this new regime has moved from the ‘all in right now’ mentality to ‘we’re going to contend for years’ mentality
Which is the right way to go given the Connor Advantage
Woulda been nice circa 2015
Need to thank LT for this forum.
I went to see what was out there on the Blues. The only story today on the Bleedin’ Blue website is about who should be the captain!
If anyone knows of a decent Blues blog or website please let me know.
The Blues subreddit is active and you don’t need a profile to view.
Here is the thread. It’s maybe not as focused as this blog, more of a site for fans. Note that fans of other teams cannot post in these subreddits to avoid trolls. So it’s a bit of an echo chamber but there is lots of discussion.-
https://www.reddit.com/r/stlouisblues/comments/1ewvfby/friedman_both_philip_broberg_and_dylan_holloway/
The long term game is to find the money to resign Draisaitl and Bouchard in their next contracts.
Lots of pieces need to be squeezed in.
I said much the same thing on the athletic, but I’ll repeat it here; Management did a good job on this one even though I was initially convinced Broberg might be worth the gamble
Remember those games Broberg played at the end of the season in garbage time?
If he didn’t play those he wouldn’t have been eligible for an offer sheet.
A player must have played 80 games to be eligible and he’s at 81.
Caveat: I believe that is regular season games and playoffs don’t count but am not completely positive.
Yup. CLASSIC Oil.
I believe there is a nuance to this that I did not read fully and a player will be eligible with 3 accrued pro season – which Broberg vested in any event.
ok. gtk.
OK, but I don’t think anyone on the coaching side of the operation were giving a (hoot) about press-boxing Broberg in order to avoid the possibility of a mid-August offer-sheet. If he didn’t play those games, he also might not have been deemed ready enough to suit up in the playoffs. So there’s also that. the stuff on the ice should always take precedence.
I posted this yesterday, but if Emberson can do his best Gustav Forsling impression and end the season at +50 that would go a long long way.