I read a lot of disappointment in the comments section last night. Understandable. The hope was Edmonton would retain one or both, so none lands poorly. The Oilers chose cap freedom, the opportunity to wheel and (most emphatically) indicated the direction of the new administration.
We don’t know Ty Emberson, don’t really know Philip Broberg. What we do know is that the Oilers management and coaching staff prefers Emberson at his low cap number over Broberg’s future at $4.58 million. Emberson is known to head coach Kris Knoblauch, and that’s a positive, but are the Oilers willing to go to war with this defensive depth chart?
THE LEFTORIUM HAS LEFT THE BUILDING
The Oilers LH depth chart is strong and deep. Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse and Brett Kulak are veterans with miles of experience and a nice range of skills collectively. If one of those men gets hurt, the options are Ben Gleason, Cam Dineen and Noel Hoefenmayer. I could see a TC invite or PTO addition, because the gap between Kulak and the three Condors is significant. There isn’t much NHL experience down on the farm. The Oilers have been running fab luck at LH defense in terms of health forever, might be an idea to get some insurance.
Edmonton on RH defense are currently Evan Bouchard and pray for rain based on what we know. I think Ty Emberson is going to get a long look with Nurse and Kulak this fall, and would place his chances of playing a feature role at 60 percent currently. I wrote about him at The Athletic yesterday, and I think there’s reason for optimism. I think he could be a less established RH version of Broberg, hopefully without the inability to recognize danger (Broberg has taken a lot of vicious checks in his young career because he is slow to recognize asshattery from opposition forwards).
Beyond Bouchard and Emberson, we have Troy Stecher and Joshua Brown. I think it might be beneficial for conversation to discuss Emberson, Stecher and Brown as three candidates vying for the second pairing job (Nurse’s partner). I know some of you will balk at the inclusion of Brown, but Edmonton signed him and he has an NHL deal. Let’s run some numbers just to get a feel for each man.
Ty Emberson is 24, the other two are 30. All are (obviously) righthanded.
Brown is 6.05, 220, Emberson is 6.02, 193 and Stecher is 5.10, 184.
Stecher has played 494 NHL games, Brown 290 and Emberson 30.
Ty Emberson averaged 16:37 per game at five-on-five. Stecher (Arizona numbers across the board) averaged 15:34 per game. Josh Brown averaged 12:31.
Emberson owned a 46 percent shot share five-on-five on a team that sat 42 percent when he wasn’t on the ice. Stecher was 48/47 and Brown was 42/49. Emberson’s numbers are the most impressive of the three in this area.
Emberson’s five-on-five goal share was just 44 percent, but the Sharks were 33 percent without Emberson on the ice at five-on-five. That’s significant. Stecher is 54/49 and Brown was 50/50. Again Emberson was best, but Stecher did well in this category.
Emberson’s expected five-on-five goal percentage was 43 percent and the team’s (42 percent) is similar. Stecher was 51/38 and Brown is 43/50. Stecher does terrifically well, Brown’s number is a horror.
One final item: Read The Athletic article posted above to find out about Emberson relative to his teammates versus elites from Puck IQ. It’s impressive in a small sample. I’d pay money to know what Michael Parkatti thinks of him, but I’ll guess he had a very good profile on this player before the deal.
It’s Wednesday on the Lowdown and that means Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal is our feature guest. We start at noon, Sports 1440, and want to hear from you! I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
Anyway JP and GeorgeXS, I wasn’t joking.
I’ll get a membership for All 3 Zones and we can collaborate on validating or invalidating the data together.
Sure. It would be great to look at whether/what the microstats might correlate with if the data is available.
NHL_Sid is doing our homework for us.
NHL_Sid has been a big proponent of finding a d partner for nurse than can defend zone entries and make good outlet passes.
The hard part with that is finding a d who does both well is somewhat rare and generally expensive–too expensive to play on a second pair with a partner who costs $9.25m.
https://oilersnation.com/news/how-can-the-edmonton-oilers-fix-the-glaring-hole-on-their-second-defensive-pairing
I wonder how many games were tracked for Emberson going into those zone defense, zone exit, Dzone retrieval numbers.
I know the tracking is usually only a minority of games, and Emberson didn’t play many to begin with.
Zone defense and zone exits are Sid’s two main red flags, but I’m guessing they are based on a tiny sample size, so those numbers may not mean much of anything at all.
I’ve been resistant to the idea of pairing Nurse with Bouchard, but there’s almost no alternative unless a new player enters the equation.
Mostly I’ve been resistant because Ekholm – Bouchard works so well.
Bouchard is obviously exceptional at outlet passing and his tracked microstats suggest that he defends zone entries well.
There’s also a bit of the need to spread the wealth.
If Nurse is over whatever ailed his play during the playoffs, I’d imagine we might see:
Nurse – Bouchard
Ekholm – Emberson
Kulak – Stetcher.
This will have the added effect of shining the McDavid light back Nurse which will dramatically improve his results.
I still don’t know what caused Nurse to play so poorly during the playoffs though or how he’ll look this up coming season. I think Bruce mentioned that he struggled on the back half of the regular season. Many have remarked on his issues with playing zone d.
I’m far less convinced than NHL_Sid and many others that zone entry and zone exit microstats are accurate or meaningful.
To my knowledge there has still been no look at if or how they correlate with any other on ice stats or results.
Even if they do have meaning, I’m guessing the sample size for Emberson is small enough that we can’t conclude anything at all from the red flag numbers shown in the article. I’m basically ignoring them entirely for Emberson.
So I don’t have any issue at all giving Emberson and/or Stecher a chance at 2RD next to Nurse. I don’t agree there’s ‘almost no alternative’ to Nurse-Bouchard.
That said, I would also like to see Nurse-Bouchard as a pairing again. Their underlying numbers have always been extremely strong (very similar to Ekholm-Bouchard), but the real goal share has lagged.
If the real can match the expected now, then that’s a really important thing to know. Likewise, if the real continues to lag expected, that’s important information too. And beyond how it affects the team and pairings, I would like to see Bouchard away from Ekholm and that 5-man unit some more before he signs his next contract.
And yes, we hope/expect that Nurse will be better going forward than he was in the playoffs. He wasn’t good, and that was compounded by an ugly PDO and on ice SV%.
More McDavid minutes would help, but those were the worst real and expected results of his entire career. I think improvement from there is an exceedingly reasonable expectation.
In fairness, they are kept behind a paywall.
Anyone who might have been inclined to try to validate them by showing correlations to other meaningful individual player stats like TOI or points/game are no longer writing in the public sphere.
Even over at Hockey Graphs, they haven’t published a new article in over 2 years.
Perhaps you, George, and I can collaborate on an article for Hockey Graphs.
This is a partial explanation of why those microstats haven’t been validated.
It does not explain why NHL_Sid and others have been using the numbers with the assumption they are meaningful.
“And yes, we hope/expect that Nurse will be better going forward than he was in the playoffs. He wasn’t good, and that was compounded by an ugly PDO and on ice SV%.”
If on-ice xGA or SCA are reflective of a player’s performance, so too is on-ice SV%.
There may be some randomness in SV% that isn’t expressed by other measures. But if the relatively subjective criteria of “n” is met, the two usually show themselves to be related. One cannot be random while the other has meaning.
In the 2024 playoffs, Nurse not only led EDM defenders with one of the worst oiSV% (87.7), he also led with the worst SCA60 and xGA60.
In fact Nurse’s last 3 playoff seasons have elevated rel SCA60 and poor rel SCF%.
This is not just an injured player who’s going to experience positive regression in his on-ice SV%. This is a player who’s posted progressively worse scores in the playoffs since signing the big contract.
We know where the hole is on the second pairing. And it’s not going away, no matter who you put on the right side.
I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here. That everything is related if you have enough ‘n’s? That nothing is random?
You appear to be saying that Nurse owns that .877 on ice SV%, and that it isn’t going to get better? Or something in that ball park?
I think that’s highly unlikely for a player whose regular season on ice SV% for the last 4 years were .916, .920, .914 and .916. Positive regression seems very likely, doesn’t it?
“I’m not sure what you’re trying to say here. That everything is related if you have enough ‘n’s? That nothing is random?”
If you believe that Nurse’s SCA (or xGA) is reflective of his performance, so too is his on-ice save percentage. Because SCA (or xGA) is a significant component of on-ice SV%. As the quality of defense decreases, so too does the quality of saving that the goaltender is able to provide. They are not independent.
“You appear to be saying that Nurse owns that .877 on ice SV%, and that it isn’t going to get better? Or something in that ball park?”
If you believe that he owns his xGA, then you must also believe that he owns his oiSV%, that they are both reflective of his performance.
In the 2023 playoffs the lowest oiSV% were owned by Desharnais and Nurse. In the 2024 playoffs the lowest oiSV% were owned by … Desharnais and Nurse.
“I think that’s highly unlikely for a player whose regular season on ice SV% for the last 4 years were .916, .920, .914 and .916. Positive regression seems very likely, doesn’t it?”
Those are his regular season numbers, over 56 to 82 games against a wide variety of teams in non-series competition. This is not a “larger sample”. It’s a different population of data with a different number of observations. N is different. Yes, the law of regression is such that as the number of observations grow, regression will occur. But that doesn’t mean the population of observations are the same. These are different beasts.
In the last three playoff seasons over 55 games, 1004 CF, 844 minutes of 5v5 time, Nurse posted a 89.11 SV% with an SCA60 of 34.69. Compare to his maligned partner Ceci: 52 games, 838 minutes of 5v5, SCA60 of 33.07, 90.23 SV%. Nurse’s SCA60 is more than 1.5 chances against higher per hour during that period. Is that chance? Is that random?
I would say that it’s likely for Nurse’s oiSV% to be closer to 90 in the 2025 playoffs than 91.4 or higher. The question is, is that good enough given that Stanley is on the line?
The Oilers were oh so very close last season. If Nurse had posted numbers closer to Kulak’s (let’s not ask him to perform at Ekholm’s level) would they have won the cup?
You can say it’s all random. But I think it’s more honest to say that the margins for error are small, he’s not been good enough, and after three mediocre to poor playoff runs, that looks like a pattern that will repeat no matter who you put beside him.
Is this true? Has anyone shown this?
Georgexs has shown that players don’t ‘own’ their on ice results year over year. And I’ve looked in the past and found that individual players on ice SV% and PDO are not correlated year over year.
Even if you are correct that there’s a correlation between SCA and on ice SV% then that still isn’t predictive of future on ice SV%.
Shouldn’t Nurse’s on ice SV% be worse than Ceci’s then? Given his SCA/60 was worse?
I don’t think it works that way. If there is a correlation, it’s very weak (and not nearly strong enough to explain Nurse’s 2024 on ice SV% – when his SCA/60 was 32.7/60 btw).
Here’s the SCA/60 and on ice SV% for Nurse with the 4 partners he played 50+ minutes with in the 2024 playoffs:
Nurse-Broberg — 42.6 SCA .947 SV%
Nurse-Ceci ——– 33.8 SCA .880 SV%
Nurse-Desharnais 25.8 SCA .821 SV%
Nurse-Kulak —— 22.5 SCA .857 SV%
Almost a perfect inverse correlation there between SCA/60 and on ice SV%. I wouldn’t try to assign any meaning to that strong inverse correlation, but it doesn’t appear to support your take.
Yes, a one goal loss in game 7 of the Cup final. Every single player on that team, Nurse included, can truthfully say ‘if I did that one thing different’ we’d probably have won the Cup.
One of the least appreciated stats of the last two Oilers seasons is just how horribly bad the goaltending has been in stretches. Bottom of the league, below AHL level, bad. Some of that is defending sure. But you had stretches where Stu and Soup were breaking stats in small sample sizes with how many goals they were letting in on all sorts of chances. You can see it in the HD data, the PDO and in the Cult of Hockey data as well. Yes 2v1’s are bad, but goalies shouldn’t let in 75% of the chances. They shouldn’t have been letting in near 40% of medium danger chances. At a certain point goalies own that.
Many folks, many many folks, refused to place blame on goaltenders for their mistakes. Stu Skinner deserved his benching with his play in the 1st and 2nd round in the playoffs before rounding into form. Same goes for the fugly first 10 weeks of the season where he and Soup made a mess in the crease.
Big fan of Stu, he’s growing and maturing. He’ll take a step forward this year and probably nab himself a Team Canada crease. Young men breaking hearts, no straight lines and all that.
To lay the blame near solely at the defense for goalies SV% is very poor stats-ing.
“Is this true? Has anyone shown this?”
David Johnson has been a proponent of players owning their oiSV% for a long time. At one point he left twitter because the argument was so intense over this issue.
Here are recent values for TEAMS from last regular season (82 games, 2023-24). The models are built from team data, and I always start there. Data is 5v5.
SV% is more ciritical to GA60 that SCA60. It’s still possible for players to own both their SCA60 and oiSV%, even if the two measures are not correlated. Both can be measures of different kind of defensive play. For example, an ability to stop a zone entry may show in SCA60, while an ability to stop a cross-seam pass might not, but could show in oiSV%. These could be measurement issues.
I didn’t say SCA and SV% were correlated. I said “As the quality of defense decreases, so too does the quality of saving that the goaltender is able to provide. They are not independent.”
The primary issue is what is meaure of defense… and is there a good one.
The idea that defense impacts goaltending in analytics goes back a long way, more than a decade.
You’d have to ask David what his current thoughts are, post-Flames.
I’m not sure what to do with this.
“They are not independent” would mean they are dependent, and thus correlated, would it not?
Whatever you meant to say, your team data would seem to show there is no meaningful correlation between SCA and on ice SV%.
And in terms of players controlling their on ice scoring chances or SV%, the only evidence you’ve provided is that David Johnson left Twitter because the issue was so contentious.
The only data I’m aware of shows that on ice scoring chance rates and SV% for individual players do not correlate year over year. So even if an individual player did ‘own’ his on ice SV% in some set of games, that would have zero value in predicting future on ice SV% for that player.
I was critical of Holland for not working to balancing the D pairs better. I wasn’t comfortable with Ceci or Des. Ceci because he is perfectly in the centre of not doing anything particularly well and doesn’t use his size, Des because he isn’t a good enough skater and often struggles with the puck
Ceci is probably a better player than Gudas, but when you’re as mean as Radko that brings it’s own good things. Like nobody wants to be on your side of the ice especially in front of the net. And players rush plays to avoid pain
I’ve been on the Nurse/Bouchard experiment for a while now – main premise is that both Bouch and Ekholm can anchor pairs.
Part of me also thinks that Nurse should be able to anchor a pair a pair as well – I mean he’s done it for years, with Bear and Bouch and Barrie and Ceci and generally have fine result – of course, with McDavid minutes.
Can those three not be the anchors.
I don’t care about “naming” pairings and couldn’t care less about “$9.25MM on the 3rd pair” screams – i care about finding out what works for the group and the team.
Ekholm & Bouchard are one of the best pairings in the NHL.
“Hey teacher! Leave those kids alone.”
They can easily be put back together in an instant at any point in time.
I think he’s tracked over 30% of the available games played over the past 4 years. It would be helpful to clarify.
That would mean roughly 10 total games tracked for Emberson.
I imagine opponent, as just one factor, would have a huge effect on zone entry defense, zone exit success, etc., which is why I don’t think Emberson’s microstat numbers would be reliable (setting aside whether they’re meaningful, even if reliable).
30% of 300 games is a lot closer to 100 games than 10.
This is interesting because in the case of these microstats, we are actually dealing with samples of the larger population of observations.
It would be interesting to know if Sznajder samples randomly. All of the standard effects and influences are bound to apply (period, leading or chasing, score effects, etc). Corey is no dummy. I’m certain he’s aware. But people are still interested in his data, he’s been doing it a long time. There’s something there.
I was talking about Emberson’s microstats.
30% of 30 games is 9-10 games.
Emberson only played 30 games.
Here’s a fun look at Podkolzin. Not sure how much his slow boots impacted him though.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4450828/2023/04/26/canucks-vasily-podkolzin-analysis/
Is he slow?
I’ll read the article, but by the NHL Edge stats his top speed is about average (though he falls below 50th percentile).
He shows well by bursts though when you factor in he didn’t play much the last 2 seasons (above average when you pro-rate his GP). And in his full season he was in the 80th percentile in bursts.
He may not be as fast as Holloway but I’ve never heard that he’s slow, doesn’t look slow
Good to take a deeper look.
I was basing it off a Willis Tweet.
https://x.com/JonathanWillis/status/1826092978785374257
LOL – someone that “knows me from the Lowetide blog” just left me a voicemail on my office line about Emberson…..
Hopefully, it was polite….😁
Going to spill?
Nothing to spill that was it.
They said, hello, called me by my name, said they know me from the LT blog and said they think Emberson can be a young right show Ekholm. Wished me a good day and hung up.
That’s the entire story.
Funny and weird. You have a fan. Of sorts
Reverse Call Lookup? Maybe it was Sather?
Haha! Thats hilarious OP. I wonder if the party will speak up here?
Sounds like a Seinfeld episode.
And?
Stauffer?
I have it on good authority is was Bob who called OP.
Let’s move on now. No point in rehashing details and assumptions anymore. They’re gone.
Let’s focus on who’s here and who might be coming to camp on PTO.
It’s way more enjoyable.
I agree.
Though usually that’s not how things work around here … we’ll still be talking about the double offer sheet 30 years from now.
We talked about Zach Parise and Taylor Hall for a decade.
Why didn’t Sather walk up to the mic and just say Shane Doan?
Haha
I’m eager to find out who your new whipping boy is. You lost a GM and a player, I’m gonna bet J Skinner and KK.
Me too. The Oilers cleaned out all my “guys”, like I knew something about hockey.
Whoever the worst veteran forward and worst veteran defensemen who make a salary that impacts the cap.
I can never be wrong when I pick on the actual worst players who earn a meaningful salary.
I mostly like the team now.
I’m still haven’t got over the Andrew Cogliano trade.
Newcomers.
I can’t believe they traded Paul Coffey.
I remember exactly where I was when we traded Ron Chipperfield for Ron Low. Remember we lost like 6 in a row Low came in and went like 8-2-1 to squeak us in the playoffs by 1 point. Then we faced the mighty Flyers took them to 2 games in OT of the best of 3. I love this team they’ve assembled I believe in the Coach and the Core. We roll from game 1 and win the Cup in 5 against the Rangers. Boook it…….
When Low took over the net he was the fifth different goalie to start in 5 consecutive games, an NHL record that surely still exists. He stablilized the position in a heartbeat.
It was Messier for me, lol
Mike Rogers for Wayne Carelton? C’mon, Norm Ullman was 39. Not like we needed a small, young center to take us into the late 80’s. But, i guess things worked out OK.
You win.
Bobo & mcammond trade
You’re right let’s focus on who’s coming to camp and the fresh new topics. Here’s some ideas:
-that Darnell Nurse character might be a bit overpaid.
-Leon needs a new contract, i wonder what the Oil are thinking.
-Who’s gonna play 2RHD effectively with Nurse?
-Will Ralph Lavoie clear waivers if he doesn’t break camp?
-what’s Jake Virtanen or someone like him up to? Think the Oil would give a guy like that a PTO?
All the brand new stuff I’m eager to hear folks talk about.
Tony DeAngelo??
Can’t PTO Virtanen again, that’s just mean. We gotta PTO a bunch of new controversial figures….
I love Podz’s attitude from his recent quotes and I hope the fresh start triggers a re-set.
After a really solid rookie year, he’s regressed year over year and was very “meh” in the AHL last year.
Based on recent on-ice impact, Lavoie SHOULD be ahead of Podz on the depth chart as Lavoie massively outplayed Podz in the AHL last year.
Of course, Podz has name recognition and top 10 draft pedigree that would make him a big waiver risk even though, at this point, until he shows something, it shouldn’t.
Given the Oilers gave up a 4th and the un-warranted, but real, waivers risk, Podz will likely get a ton of opportunity at camp and in the exhibition games and is targeted for a roster spot.
It would be awesome if he was able to re-set and re-establish himself and give the Oilers some added speed, size, jam and skill in the bottom six and make an impact (and press up the lineup).
Oh, I believe that Podz will show up in shape and highly motivated to show well. He was drafted as an offensive guy and has not shown the ability or inclination to make it work when in the bottom 6 (see Tocchet, Rick).
If he washes out with the Oilers, he is probably done in the NHL. He would know that the AVERAGE KHL salary last year was $425,000.00. Peanuts compared to the NHL and the last time I checked, Canada is not in a serious conflict with another country.
I would assume at this point that he makes it as the 13th F to avoid waivers.
Training camp this year is going to be great to watch who rises and who falls.
I’m a fan of Lavoie and hope he succeeds… however, as LT likes to point out, when management changes prospects become orphans. Pod was traded for by Bowman which likely puts him in a very decent position to be the one getting the push. Combine that with your points above about being a top 10 draft pick and name recognition, that would lead me to guess Lavoie is the more likely of the two to be sent down earlier.
Of course a lot of the early to mid camp transactions can slip under the radar for other teams as every team is kind of doing the dance of dropping prospects and hoping others don’t grab them. Maybe Lavoie going down with a few games remaining in preseason might be a good thing? He’d done enough by the end of last season that I had him as one of the top recall options.
I think it all depends on auditions. Everyone is going to have to play like they want which is different than what Holland looked for. From what I’ve gathered Lavoie didn’t play like that – assertive and all over the puck both ends of the ice
Already a difference on D. Holland said he wanted ‘long’ D, JJ/Bowman seem to want better skating D and other attributes. Emberson and Fischer both 6’1 and under 200 at the moment and had very good mentions on skating on the scouting pieces out there. And US players which have been rare on the Oilers lately
Between Podkolzin, Lavoie, and Savoie (likely later in the season), I feel optimistic that one or two of these guys can step up and provide some solid depth for the bottom 6 this year
Apparently Podkolzin grows every offseason as well according to our resident Canucks expert. He’s probably up to 6’6″ or 6’7″ by now. lol.
Why do you say this?
Lavoie had an NHLe of 30 and was +1 on a team that was +21 last season.
Podkolzin had an NHLe of 25 and was even on a team that was +24 last season.
Podkolzin was most of a year younger.
Seems like not much to choose rather than a massive difference no?
Podz had 28 points and Lavoie had 28 goals – yes, 44 vs. 66 games but 28G and 50 points in 66 games is superior to 15G and 28P in 44 games, in my opinon.
The 9 month age difference is really not relevant any more I don’t think.
Yeah, I just don’t think the gap in AHL scoring last season warranted ‘massively outplayed’, or should justify Lavoie being ahead on the depth chart.
Its the second straight year that Lavoie outproduced Podz in the AHL (including per game points).
Podz’s rookie season is real and it happened but he has regressed year over year since.
From LT’s Athletic article to quote a small snippet:
“The spending of big money on older players left little room for the younger set, and it was clear both Broberg and Holloway were going to be pressured to sign for minimum increases.
That’s a part of the Oilers game plan that should be reassessed.”
*****
Totally agree on this assessment but if you don’t have ANY players in the cohort of the “younger set”, then there’s no need to pressure them! (Watch the Oilers trade out Podkolzin and Emberson for draft picks and prospects and sign even more $1M PTO bargain deals with vets)
From what I understand, RFAs can negotiate with other teams once they receive a qualifying offer from their current team. That means the player’s agent can call every other team to gauge interest in his client. Which is what a good agent should be doing, no? What kind of agent offers to sign for $1.2 (or $1.8) without knowing what’s out there? And what kind of agent offers $1.2 (or $1.8) when he knows there’s actually a $2+ (or $4.5+) offer out there?
I suspect the whole the Oilers could have had both players for $3 is made up. Those two were gone, gone, gone. Because more money now, more career earnings later, more opportunity, younger locker room…
Whatever it means for us, STL is a much, much better result for both players. Their agents did their jobs. Holloway’s agent, Blake Robson, has two clients according to Puckpedia. Big win for him.
Broberg’s agent said there were three other teams ready to tender an offer sheet but Broberg liked the opportunity in St. Louis.
That could be self-promotion on the agent’s part. But it does suggest the offer sheet process has to be coordinated by the agent, if not orchestrated. That’s just the agent doing his job. I have a hard time with the idea that the agent made a good faith offer to the Oilers without first testing the market. And if he tested the market, he would have had information on what the market was willing to pay. So I think the reported player’s proposals to the Oilers aren’t useful anchors. Never real.
The agents probably set the whole offer sheet in motion.
Pretty sure agents have ‘hypothetical’ conversations with teams all the time.
As you say it is what a good agent is doing if he knows his client is looking for options.
With not being so tight to the cap allow K.K to rotate more players in and out of the line-up. Lets rotate our D so they’re fresh as the season drags on. Lets give players a cup of coffee sometimes teams hit a home-run doing this. Lavoie-Podkolzin-Savoie-Kemp- Wanner-Jarventie when healthy give these players a look let them have taste give hope plus the paycheque may add inspiration.
So can somebody explain to me what’s wrong with Stetcher?
From the numbers posted by LT above, he would seem to be perfectly suited to being a perfectly competent, experiencing RHD that costs nothing, and can fill in at 2RD and get us to the trade deadline, at which time if an upgrade is available, then we’ll have the cap do so.
Is it his sideburns?
Diminutive
Injury prone
But chemistry and timing are real. We could see some surprises with the new crop of RD.
He looked good to me last year. Maybe not a world beater, but definitely someone that can fill a productive role in a team.
I’m also one of the people that couldn’t figure out why the Oilers didn’t value Hejda though.
It is going to be hard to ice competitive teams if Drai signs for 14, McD 15, Bouch 10, and Nurse 9.
I am glad Bowman is putting cap flexibility first because it is going to be a tightrope going forward. I hope everyone bought new calculators.
Those numbers are all a bit low too.
There will be cap room for it all as long as they don’t commit over-cap to the non-core players – I’ve been saying that all off-season and I believe it to be true.
This was why the offer sheets couldn’t be matched (and why Deharnais was walked, etc.
The key is to have some players making impacts on value contracts and that’s why this offer sheet fiasco hurt – the plan was for Broberg and Holloway to be on value contracts for the next few seasons and making real impacts.
There is more pressure on Savoie to not bust out and make it and one other, be it Jarventie or O’Riley or someone – plus at least one of Wanner/Akey.
Broberg’s and Holloway’s offer to the Oilers included the market price of the offersheet option.
Oilers offer to Broberg 2 x $1.1 million. Broberg’s offer to the OIlers 2 x $1.8 million.
The Oilers mistake was NOT pricing into their offer to Broberg and Holloway the optionality of the offersheet. Usually the price of the offersheet option is near zero and is safely ignored. But in the case of these two players and the Oilers cap situaton, the offersheet option price was NOT zero.
In the case of Broberg, Ferriss was willing to sell the offersheet option to the Oilers for $700K x 2.
The Oilers declined to purchase the offersheet option from Broberg for $700K x 2, so Broberg cashed it in for $3.4 million x 2, a 5X trade.
And that is why I was saying the Oilers should have just “hit the bid” in the case of Broberg and Holloway. The Oilers were being offered by bargain by both Broberg and Holloway.
In the case of Holloway. They were offering to sell the offer sheet option for the Oilers for $100K x 2. (i.e. 3 x $1.1 Oilers offer vs 2 x $1.2 Holloways offer)
Holloway’s agent then cashed the offersheet option to $1.1 million x 2, or an 11X trade.
The price of the Broberg offersheet option was much larger than Holloway’s since Broberg was the more desirable asset and more likely to be offersheeted, but the bigger mistake was not paying for Holloway’s offersheet option, since it was so cheap…only $100K.
I think this has been beaten to death
I dunno. I think he thought he saw the horse was still breathing….
I agree with you. Past is history, look forward always.
I’m just here for the Bruce Cockburn references. (I assume this is a Dancing in the Dragon’s Jaws call-out?)
— haha! Hi !
I was thinking Blue Rodeo but it could go either way
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6ffkOqZRLY
True but I also think Broberg has come a long way in this regard and doesn’t put himself in dangerous positions as often – part of that is getting used to the speed of the faster North American game on the smaller ice.
Amazing the different opinions from how they screwed up to how they navigated very well through this.
For me I’ll wait and judge the final product. If this is the team that goes to the playoffs it’s a epic fail.
I suspect we see moves before training camp , before the season starts and at the trade deadline. After the trade deadline will be when the final determination is made.
Today we’re definitely not as good as last year but now we wait.
I don’t know that we are “definitely not as good as last year”.
I think it is more accurate to say that the balance is tilted more towards the bat than the glove.
It’s probable, IMO, that another dman (Barrie) gets signed
Yes on another dman.
Am not so sure it’s Barrie. You need a another man who can PK.
Good teams take risks. Calculated risks, but risks. That’s the reality of competing in a cap environment. You can pay for established talent, but that’s going to eat cap space. Look at the Stanley Cup winning defensive core that Florida put together. Some players from the scrap heat, and definitely someone unknowns.
Well NHL_SID isn’t so sure about the new RD and Nurse
Hopefully we get surprised on a good way. I’m still not liking the old offensive RD as an option
Looks like a deadline deal, if the can get enough cap or play the LTIR game if Kane ‘is deciding on options and doctors’ in a convenient time stamp
As Sid notes, the Oilers are a Bouchard injury away from Stetcher at 1D.
How’s Demko he’s a fragile sort they should of traded him for a boat load 2 years ago. Even his goalie coach is distancing himself from him.
Ian Clark apparently has some physical issues that are limiting him participating in on ice activities.
The Canucks promoted him while his protege Marko Torenius will assume the on ice coaching duties.
Torenius is credited with developing Shesterkin in the KHL.
If the Canucks chase a starter that means Demko is long term. It looks like Tocchet and Russians don’t mix but why trade with your rivals. We don’t have much luck with Russians yet Podkolzin has a real chance of making the team and actually contributing.
Love the new handle HH. Is it sarcasm? Seems kind of opposite George….
Somebody said that before.
Why not post the quote you are talking about?
Sure
https://oilersnation.com/news/how-can-the-edmonton-oilers-fix-the-glaring-hole-on-their-second-defensive-pairing
Anyone got intel on PK for the 3 (4 if you count Kemp) new RSD?
At 5v5 last year the TOI was nearly even between the top two pairs owing to how much the McD trio played. Nurse-Ceci got more minutes with offensively challenged linemates and had the higher dzone deployment.
I see three thing popping up a lot.
1) Lighten Ek’s workload given his age
2) Bouchard needs to “stand on his own,” whatever that means,
3) What to do with Darnell?
Some suggest moving Ek away from Bouch lightens his workload, but is that true? I highly doubt that unless the McD forward trio takes a massive step back next season. That fivesome were running shot and goal shares in the 60% range. As Daniel pointed out a few weeks ago Bouch-Ek got one hell of an ozone push on faceoffs as well. Aside from games against the Elite teams, there wasn’t much defending being done at 5v5 for that duo. The puck was in and out of the dzone fast and Ek patrolled the Ozone blueline more than anything. If you move Ekholm off that pairing to break in say Emberson its a guaranteed lock that it will be harder than playing with Bouchard and the McD trio. His ozone push will fade, he’ll take more dzone starts and odds are he’ll end up defending more than he did last year.
The most obvious thing to my eye to decrease Ekholm’s minutes is to pull him back on the PK and give Kulak a push there. Those are hard battle minutes with shot block risk as well. Spreading the PK load is a way to reduce the wear on tear of both Ek and Nurse while finding a way for Kulak to provide true value on his cap hit.
Bouchard standing on his own. Unless you pair Bouchard with Kulak I’m not sure what this means really? I don’t think you’ll pair Bouch with Kulak absent a series of injuries so no matter what he’s going to have a very good veteran partner to play with. Ekholm and Nurse are both veteran dmen and both have a history of playing the Elites of the other side. The big difference is who their forward linemates end up being and I’ll say more on this in a minute. This isn’t to say its not worth trying. I’m not against spreading out the Bouch magic a bit more, or lightening Nurse’s defensive load, especially on dzone draws etc. But I don’t think its clear that these moves lighten Ek’s workload and I’m not sure stylistically its the best combo for Nurse either.
If some are correct in saying Nurse is a rover, and I’m inclined to agree, how does it work to pair him with Bouchard who should be rushing the puck, making outlets etc.? How does it work on zone entries if Nurse is particularly bad at holding the Blue? You want Bouchard to have the puck on his stick as much as possible cause its much more likely to lead to a GF. But playing with Nurse will force him to hold back, it will force him to think and likely to defend more. Last time these two were together Bouchard was basically a rookie and we hadn’t yet seen what he’s capable of. Maybe its a brilliant move to put them together and be a fivesome that attacks at will? Something to think about.
I think we’ll see Nurse take on his usual role which is playing with the least experienced player on the team as he’s always done. Both Stecher and Emberson are the least experienced in the Oilers system and I think Darnell plays with both this year. From what I’ve read so far both Stecher and Emberson would appear to be natural compliments to Nurse’s style. Both are good outlet passers, both can hold their own defensively and both are more defensive than offensive all things considered. I’m sure we’ll see many different dpairings and I don’t think Ekholm would be out of place with either guy.
The final point on this dman thread is what we have on forward. I’m a big believer that forwards contribute a great deal to the fancies of their defensemen and here I think this season could see a massive improvement. Last year the 2nd and 3rd lines were often Black Holes offensively, this made every GA look much worse than it needed to. With a revamped 2nd line that should post fancies >55% in most metrics and a properly staffed 3rd line, it should open a world of possibilities independent of who the dpairs are.
1) You should be able to tweak the faceoff deployments without a significant slide either way. Coach KK ran the McD line so hard offensively cause the other lines weren’t likely to score. With Leon riding pivot for actual scoring wingers the dpairing deployments shouldn’t be as severe.
2) With how good those forwards are you should see less defending overall. As noted the Ek-Bouch pair didn’t do much defending last year regardless of faceoff position. They were on the hunt offensively much more than they were in their own end. With a better 2nd line and a 3rd line who’s a threat to score and much better at zone exits you should see a similar effect on whoever that 2nd pairing is.
3) If you are looking to specifically lighten the workload of Ek or Nurse I think the PK is the obvious place to do that. Those are hard wear and tear minutes so its best to spread the love here.
I called Coffey turning Nurse loose and being a power D-man weeks ago. Joining the rush, activating, skating miles as a free wheeling Big Bird Larry Robinson but he needs a Jason smith type partner. K.K and the rest of the committee targeted Emberson to fill that role in my opinion.
As I remember a freewheeling Nurse doesn’t get much accomplished. I think with Nurse it’s; less is more and picking his spots is more the way for him to operate. If they decide to pair him with Bouchard, who would you want carrying the puck and making that first pass? Certainly not Nurse. That’s the big unknown, who do you pair with Nurse? Right now, it would appear to be Ty Emberson who will get the first look or maybe Troy Stecher. But at this point they just have to find out exactly what they have going into camp and beyond. Carefully consider their options and go from there.
Maybe they should revisit Nurse with Kulak. But now they will need another 3LD to balance out the third pair, unless Gleason is adequate in the role. More questions than answers right now.
Your point about improved forward depth cannot be emphasized enough.
I think the Oilers D group is likely worse than last year but I think their fancies will improve largely because of the improved forward group.
Ryan gave the example of Florida last year of a team with good but not great dmen being bolstered by a deep forward group.
I think that our D group is probably closer than we think to last year. Emberson and Stetcher both seem better than Desharnais (who we pulled in the playoffs). Broberg played in extreme luck in the playoffs (PDO of 115.5). Ceci didn’t have the greatest numbers either. The Oilers are still the betting favourites this morning and I believe we’re a better team this year than we were last year.
A 3-C is the answer it always has been, best one we’ve had since Stoll. Henrique was hurt and was new to the team during the playoff run, he was still affective. I see Henrique feasting on the opposition leftovers this coming year.
Excellent! Well presented.
Emberson played PK 1.11 TOI per gm last season. 2nd on the team in TOI behind Jan Rutta (2.96 TOI per).
Stecher has played 1.19 PK TOI for his career (494 games)
Last season TOI per game
Kulak: 0.90 / Bouch: 0.33
Viking: 2.04 / Desi: 2.04
Nurse: 2.50 / Ceci: 2.60
2024 – 2025
#1 PK D Pairing: Nurse / Emberson
#2 PK D Pairing: Kulak / Stecher
#3 PK D Pairing: Viking / Bouch
Basically the play is to get Kulak to take most of the Viking PK minutes and Emberson / Stecher to take the Ceci minutes.
Kulak & Bouchard played well together.
Just want to mention that this is pretty overstated.
The median teams in the league scored 2.56-2.58 GF/60 at 5v5.
Draisaitl without McDavid had a GF/60 of 2.89 and a GF% of 57.6%.
McLeod without McDavid had a GF/60 of 2.30 and a GF% of 54.6%.
Not exactly black holes, or defending all the time.
The middle 6 should hopefully be further improved this season though.
Per 60s are fine in the aggregate. But they don’t tell the whole story and are prone to overstate offense if guys score in bunches.
Oiler forwards aside from the McD-Leon-Hyman, were bunch and/or streaky scorers last season.
Foegele was actually one of the most consistent all year, tough playoffs.
Others saw ugly stretches of no offense especially in the back half of the season. Kane was over 20 games without a goal and in 2024 7/8 of his goals came in blowout wins against bottom feeders post deadline and an Avs team that rested everyone in April. Nuge went 10 and 11 games without goals. McLeod had 5 regular season goals in 2024. Janmark had four RS goals and only three in 2024. Brown had four goals total.
I maintain the offense down the lineup was a Black Hole for long stretches. The new additions, plus a full year of Henrique, should help balance the scoring out across the season..
I want to push back a bit on a recurring comment from one of the regular posters here.
I will start by saying I am a fan of how the Jackson/Bowman team has operated so far, I think for the most part their moves have been astute and impressive.
I will also agree that the Broberg/Holloway situation was an error (good recovery though). I will also agree that some of the blame on this is shared by previous regime and their decisions.
What I don’t understand is the argument that signing Jeff Skinner was the reason why the 2 RFAs were not signed and ultimately offer sheeted. How does the decision on those 2 players (young depth forward and potential RD) equate to getting a top 6 forward with proven scoring ability to play with Leon, on a value contract?
The actual mistake made by JJ, in my opinion, is the continuation of a trend by Oiler management for decades now of signing unnecessary pieces so early in UFA and boxing themselves in on more important contracts for no apparent reason (see Kassian v. Nurse)
The real mistake was Perry/J. Brown for no reason at all. That is a total of $2.15 million. If the reported cap space allotted for Holloway/Broberg before the offer sheets was roughly the same, not signing the first 2 would have left double the money to offer/sign the younger duo (split it up however needed).
If you look at our roster today, would substituting Holloway/Broberg for Perry/J. Brown not make us a much better team both now AND in the future?
You don’t understand the cap. Contracts under $1.1 million (I think that is close to the number this year) have no impact on the cap, since that amount is buriable. One can sign as many players for $1 million as one wants subject to the 50 contract cap, and the team owner’s wealth, with no impact to the cap.
In reality, only contracts above $1.1 million impact the cap. So, Skinner and Henrique at $3 million matter, and Janmark at $1.5 to some extent. Henrique is the most important of the three. So money well spent, considering the OIlers traded McLeod. Not signing Janmark would only free up about $400K, probably not enough extra cap to get Holloway and Broberg done. So it is the $2 million from Skinner above $1.1 million is where the cap required to sign Holloway and Broberg would have had to come from.
Almost all of Perry’s and Brown’s contract is buriable. They do not matter to the cap. Perry’s bonus’s will matter later. And that was ill-advised, but it has no impact on Holloway or Broberg.
I do understand the cap and understand burying. We are currently listed on PuckPedia as 13 forwards, 7 defence and 2 goalies. the limit, with $900K left. Yes Brown can be buried, but do you really think that’s happening to Perry? So maybe Ryan? Either way, my point was prioritizing those early framed their mind as to how much they could spend. You may disagree with me…your prerogative.
I don’t think any of the other signings was a mistake. The mistake was in dismissing the idea of an offer sheet as a possibility.
They thought they could grind Holloway and Broberg because they thought they had no alternative but to take what they were given.
And there were many here who thought and said the same thing based upon history. History turned out to be what it always is – a guide more than a guarantee.
I believe Broberg and his agent knew a payday was coming. The Holloway offer sheet was Armstrong going all in on securing Brobeg. I believe Holloway cooked his goose long term.
Yup. I think Broberg told his agent to start sniffing around last December to see what might be available.
I don’t know if the Oilers figured the playoff run changed things or they just never thought about an offer sheet but somewhere along the line with the change in management or the excitement of the playoff run the penny never dropped.
Armstrong basically said the deal was agreed to and sat waiting for the timing to make it as difficult as possible for the Oilers to wriggle off the hook.
What it came down to was that both of Holloway & Broberg weren’t going to sign for what the Oilers were offering. The offer sheet happened, and they both jumped on the Blues train. It’s as simple as that. I gotta say Skinner playing ahead of Holloway in the top six is a no brainer and that $2.15M alotted to Perry & J Brown wasn’t enough for Holloway & Broberg.
I think a lot of people don’t relize hiw good Skinner and a healthy Ardvisson are. Leon finally has talent on his wings no more Kahun or Reiders. This is the best 2nd line since Anderson-Linesman-Messier
Saturday, December 7th @ Edmonton, 1st game against St. Louis. Should be a really good one, expecting some targeting of 2 ex-Oilers and a sh*t-load of goals.
I’m not sure of any targeting of players. By all accounts both were good teammates and typically players don’t begrudge other players for making as much as they can.
Reminds me of a time my coworker went to another company cause they offered him more money.
We saw eachother at a conference so I pulled his shirt over his head and started feeding some liver punches to him. Then I cheered infront of his new employers. That’ll teach him for leaving the team for more money.
Holy HR issue Batman….
I wasn’t suggesting our players initiate that strategy, rather the coach giving instructions… not in vengeance, but after a desertion some punishment is due.
Last season, there were 87 right handed D that played 40 or more games. Of those, just 58 played 18+ minutes a night, a low bound for the 2RD role.
That means, 1) there aren’t enough 2RD’s to go around based solely on handedness; and 2) don’t sleep on Stecher (he played 54 games and 18:07 a night).
Yup. I don’t know if Stetcher can handle that role for the season but I think he gets first shot at it while they acclimate & evaluate Emberson.
I just wish he was 6’2″ and 192 lbs.
For full context it’s important to note that Stecher played this minutes for the shitty Arizona Coyotes and that he could not unseat either Ceci or Desh once he joined the Oilers.
Not a world beater, but it was highly unlikely the coaches would have done that. His boil was also probably a part of the issue as it required surgery not long after
Stauff said the Oilers will 100% be bringing in a PTO d-man. If nothing else they need bodies for the split squad and early exhibition games.
Intimated that player will be known to Knobby and played recently in the NHL.
Lock on Dermott on a PTO – he could be 7D as well over Brown and likely would come in under $1MM.
That would make sense because they need another LHD to balance things out.
Wouldn’t it be nice to have a 23-man roster 8D, 13F & 2g for a change?
Ya but I presume they’ll run in skater short if they are under LTIR to maximize the accrual until injuries hit.
This could lead to scenarios where it could be of benefit to have the AHL team in Edmonton (or area) like EVERY OTHER CANADIAN TEAM.
Sure, the team is on the road for half the games so half the time it wouldn’t matter but there might be some scenarios where having the affiliate in town makes a difference.
Holland was against it – he liked the speration.
Jackson may feel differently.
Thing is the Condors are a very successful AHL team.
I have balked but, since initial balking, the Oilers have sent out or lost Broberg and Ceci and brought in Emberson.
Brown have moved up to 7D on the depth chart.
I don’t like it but its not bad “depth” – unfortunately the group in front has quite a bit of risk.
I hope Phil Kemp earns a call-up over Brown on merit.
Wanner may join that conversation as well. I see a bright future for that man, is his future now?
I don’t see it being now, as in the start of the season. I could see him getting some NHL games this year depending on how things break but I think the org plans on at least one more full season in the AHL.
Earlier this month, Keith Gretzky was on with Stauff and used the word “raw” to describe Wanner about 4-5 times.
Totally understand management’s decision to and to ensure some cap flexibility – letting the over-paid youngsters walk and moving Ceci for a more unproven (but intriguing) player.
Not starting the season on LTIR (and maybe not going on to LTIR at all, even if Kane has surgery) is a very good thing.
At the same time, I think the Oilers community is over-stating the amount of cap and flexibility they have – talking about all this cap space in-season they’ll have to make moves.
I believe, as of now, rough numbers, with Kane either on the roster or regular IR (not LTIR) the team looks to have apx $900M (a bit over) in cap space which will project to apx $4.4MM at the deadline.
That’s awesome but that presume no changes to the roster and we know that’s not going to be the case. Lets say one player gets hurt for 5 or 10 or 15 days, if they want to call up a player to replace him on the roster (if on regular IR) or just add to the roster while that player is active but non-available – boom, all of a sudden the team is accruing the daily portion of like $50M as opposed to $900M.
There is going to be roster movement all season long and the likelihood of $4.4MM of cap space at the deadline is small.
I do think there is a non-zero chance that Kane tries to continue to rehab and potentially play over the first few months of the season and then has surgery mid-season with a close to mid-April recovery time line – accrual for the first while and then, boom, $5MM extra with Kane coming back for the playoffs.
I wish we had $900M in cap space.
There’s always LTIR money from when Arviddson goes down
Really you think he’s that injury prone?
2025 3rd Ceci Broberg Holloway for Emberson Podkolzin and Fischer plus a 2nd in 2025 and a 3rd in 2025 and a 3rd in 2028
Ceci and a 3rd for Emberson and the cap space it creates = win or a draw at least.
Podkolzin for a 2025 3rd = win for Oilers
Broberg and Holloway for a 2nd 3rd and another 3rd in 2028 plus Fischer = a win for me as I suspect that next year even with the cap going up we’d be regretting the Broberg contract when we didn’t have enough money for Drai McD or Bouch
Do I think we are better… maybe not but I do believe we could have been a whole lot worse if not for some good decisions made by our new Gm
I know LT and a few others have mused about running Skinner with McD and I see the beautiful logic in that but I think it raises two issues.
1) You have two wingers that aren’t the most defensively minded with McD and
2) You give Leon two guys who aren’t pure scorers, though Arvvidson is close.
Skinner with Leon gives him his first shooter pretty much ever aside from McD. It’s also a good fit for Leon’s spectacular backhand play and gives him a winger who’s very good in tight around the net. His edges down low along with his size make him very hard to handle. I just see a bunch of different ways he could thrive with Leon.
Also allows McD to keep cooking with his finisher in Hyman and gives those two their defensive conscious in Nuge.
I’m sure we’ll see many combinations throughout the year and this is an embarrassment of riches story but at first blush I’d run Skinner-Leon-Victor and see where that takes me.
Victor causing mayhem for Skinner and Leon to operate is going to be beautiful puck.
Spahn and Sain and pray for rain
One of the best baseball quotes ever.
Like I said yesterday. I don’t blame Broberg for signing in STL as he had a wall of good to elite veteran LHD in front of him. The summer after trading for Ekholm they should have dumped Kulak and committed to Broberg at 3LD – but Holland had a thing for Kulak – and he screwed his own #1 pick instead. Anything this summer was too late to save the relationship or get a team-friendly deal since he obviously wanted out and a chance to play regularly.
Same with Holloway who had RNH, Kane, Skinner in front of him. He’s not as good as any of those guys this year (or maybe ever – who knows). Holloway was destined for the bottom 6 or even 4th line when Kane is healthy, and he’s still waivers exempt (less than 5 seasons or 160 games). Demotion to the AHL again was not an unimaginable situation next season if he signed cheap in EDM.
Everyone wanted us to be a destination for good vets – well now we are – but the downside is that it creates a big hurdle for young guys. That’s all well and good but you can’t treat high picks like 7th rounders. There’s a slot on the 4th line for Savoie if he shows well in TC where he can be protected and learn while earning NHL money. If you want a deal on a 2nd contract you need to earn some good faith during the ELC. Show the young guys a clear path and have a bit of faith in the good ones. Holland never did that with Broberg, and even in the NHL, talent has options if they feel like they’ve been screwed over.
Yes they need a balance of their own youth and fill in with vets. I don’t agree with Holland’s take that young players make mistakes so go old
What happened is the old guys still made mistakes, some becoming nearly unplayable in the playoffs. Use the BPA, even if they are young. I’m not talking about something like using Savoie just because he has top end talent, but when they are ready, use them and save some money, develop the player further
There are going to be cap casualties. Be in front of that, keep refreshing the org, like the Ceci deal
See, in hindsight, this seems like the right call, but if one player goes down for any sort of severe injury, who fills in after Broberg if there’s no Kulak? Holland would have been burned at the stake.
Here’s the thing to remember: Oilers had incredible fortune and luck with health last season (and the one prior to that as well). Defensemen especially. For the starting six, they had a combined total of 12 games missed all last season. Statistically, that’s in anomaly territory for modern NHL. Broberg was always the depth replacement piece slated to come in when injury struck (plus Stetcher added for additional measure).
Fortunately for the team but unfortunately for Broberg, the opportunity never materialized because everyone stayed immensely healthy. Is what it is.
That 2nd d pairing is gonna be a big black hole again. Hope we can collect a bunch of cap space for trade deadline.
I don’t think it will be. Emberson has paid his dues and did well on a very bad team. I think he or Stecher can cover the bet better than Ceci was able to
If they split up Ek Bouch which I think they should to get Ek’s TOI down through the season, or at least at times, Ek can easily play with either righty, and both are better fits with Nurse, Stecher’s size less an issue with either big LD
For the regular season, Oilers ran with Ceci and Desharnais. That’s not a very high bar to clear and Emberson and Stecher should be as good if not better.
Now for the playoffs, an upgrade is needed but that’s serviceable for the season.
I like this perspective but I think there’s more clarity when you compare the trio of Ceci/Desharnais/Broberg rotating through the bottom two defence pairs versus Emberson/Stetcher/Brown performing the same roles this year.
Brown is a huge step down from the spare RHD of last year whether you consider that to be Desharnais or Broberg.
The chaos lineup that popped into my mind:
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Stetcher
Kulak-Emberson
Bouchard, Stetcher and Kulak would be offensive leads on their pairs and Nurse, Ekholm and Emberson would take on the more defensive roles…
I think those assuming that Bouchard will remain with Ekholm might be in for a surprise at TC.
I would start the season
Nurse – Bouchard
Ekholm – Stetcher
Kulak – Emberson
and transition Emberson and Stetcher as soon as Emberson is deemed to be comfortable with the Oilers system.
Probably a few back and forths during the season for adjustments with an eye on the TD for an upgrade if needed and/or possible.
I still wonder with Broberg being unhappy why they didnt just trade him. They must have not thought offer sheet was gonna happen?
No doubt this is where the mistake was made.
When are you suggesting they should have traded him?
With the Fischer acquisition, there’s now an even dozen NAmateurs to track this season, barring further moves.
Said tracking begins exactly one month hence–Saturday, September 21.
Looking forward to it! Thanks again for doing this, Tarkus.
I’ll echo Armchair with my appreciation that you do this!
I don’t recall what you decided… will you be taking us on a tour of the plains towns in the south of our fair province or the flatlands to the east?
Sasky towns will only appear during daylight saving time. Otherwise, a steady diet of the 780 with occasional forays into the 403.
Lots of talk now on bringing in some aging dmen on PTOs. No to Tyson Barrie etal.
The team has had significant turnover this summer and the play is to integrate the new guys as quickly as possible. The team needs to cut down to the NHL roster by assigning guys to the Condors or waiving them completely so that the ‘NHL team’ can gel. Can’t have a start like last year as that may have cost the boys a cup.
There’s no new fangled defensive swarm or 11-7 being instituted. There’s no way in hell we come close to that embarrassment.
These two things are not the same.
Nobody’s putting the swarm back in.
But it might not be a bad idea to get a sense of what we have in Emberson, Stecher, and Brown. And possibly Kemp. And even moreso if we sign Barrie.
Man I’d like to see Nurse and Bouchard have one more try, maybe it will work this time. If Ekholm could bring along Emberson that would leave Kulak and Stecher/Brown for a (theoretically) strong third pair.
Me too. I’d also like to see them reduce Ek’s TOI at his age with his tweaky hip/groin
I think Emberson would be fully reliable by playoffs with Ek. Probably with Nurse as well. Then no need for a pricey 2RD, just maybe some inexpensive depth
In my opinion, it would help you set the value of Bouchard as well. Can he carry the number one position with a weaker partner? If not there’s no shame but it may knock down the ask on his next contract. If so, we know he’s worth the high cap hit. As far as Emberson we need to know if he can handle top four minutes with high expectations.
Good points
Man! If there’s no need for a pricey 2RD at the deadline, what would you spend the picks and cap space on instead? MORE high-end forwards??
Heh heh. What if they used the higher picks at the draft! For once!
Me three. Time for Bouchard to leave the nest.
Everybody really wants to see the Larry Murphy as a Toronto Maple Leaf era.
NOT ME.
Even though it would prove my analysis of Bouchard correct. I would rather bear the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune than see Bouchard’s “Larry Murphy in Toronto” era.
It’s worth a shot. Can always revert any time
Absolutely. They are paying Nurse like a #1LD so they have to play him with Bouchard who is fully developed. Ease up on EK and let him break in a young RHD this season until spring. That could be Emberson or even Wanner. Get a vet 2RD partner for Ek in the spring (there’s a nasty viking in SEA who might enjoy a short-term partnership) and the young guy can slide back to play with Kulak in the playoffs. Brown and Stetcher are extras. We absolutely have to develop a young RHD this year. You throw guys who look promising into the deep-end and sometimes they swim. Look at what MIN did with Faber.
Agree with using your vet to shelter Emberson and Bouchard to (smh) shelter Nurse. Also, like the thought of protecting Ekholm’s minutes. It’ll be a long season after a long season. The body can only endure so much and only the playoffs (really) matter.
When Nurse is miscast as a defensive defenceman, disaster ensues.
He is a rover. He needs a defender in order to have any hope.
I don’t believe in building the D core this way, but with that contract, here we are.
Defensive D or one that always has the puck might work
Emberson is supposed to be a defensive D.
agreed.
I’m taking the under on whether we’re discussing these moves much by Halloween. This remains a deep team, with holes, as it was 9 days ago. This is a team that has, compared with last training camp, goaltending resolved and a deeper and more frightening top 9. I think management did a good job on bets that can make up for losing Broberg this coming year, as the team will again challenge for a Cup. The conversation may emerge again in 3 years, and if we don’t have a Cup by then it will likely rank in the Top 10 Reasons Why, but that math can wait. If the Oilers can find the ultimate success, that they continue to build toward, I think this offer sheet will be a footnote.
It will be outside the Top 10. All Top 10 slots are taken by Chia-Pet.
If Emberson is not in town, he should get here. Needs to start working out hard(er) and skating on Oiler ice asap. This guy must be over the moon. Working out this summer to hopefully solidify, and build on, a position as a RD on the worst team in the league, to now fighting for a RD spot on the presumptive cup contender.
I see this player as a Brett Kulak – good 3rd pairing guy with the ability to move up at times as required.
D Pairings Out of Camp
Ek – Bouch
Nurse – Emberson
Kulak – Stetcher / Brown
Could, and they probably will at times, switch Emberson and Stetcher.
Q: ‘Assuming all healthy at the end of the season,is this D good enough to win a cup?’
A: I believe it is good enough to have the Oilers in 1st place in the Pacific and fighting for 1st overall at the trade deadline. With available cap space, they may be able to upgrade to an established 2RD at the deadline.
Cheering for Emberson to help get this team to the trade deadline in 1st place.
It’s a big opportunity for Emberson for sure. But it’s also big shoes to fill for a player with 30 games experience.
The plan before the offer sheet was to fill the spot with a guy with 81 games on his off side so . . .
I do not agree that that was “the choice”. That was one of the unintended consequences of the choice. The real choice was Broberg and Holloway for $3-$3.5 million together vs.Jeff Skinner for $3 million. Jeff Jackson got greedy. I can treat these two players (fairly critical to extending the McDraivid window) harshly because I can, is not a good way to run a business.
Broberg was willing to sign for two years for under $2 million.
The choice was Broberg and Holloway OR Jeff Skinner. And if Jeff Jackson did not realize that that was the choice he was making on July 1, then shame on him.
Ceci for Emberson was happening regardless.
Do we know this though? From what we’ve heard, Broberg was not happy last year. Maybe his intention was to drag out negotiations to the bitter end, hoping for an offer sheet. And from reports, it sounds like there was plenty of interest across the league for broberg, following the playoffs.
Ferris make an offer of 2 x $1.8 million for Broberg. Not unreasonable considering the position he plays and how he performed in last year.
The Oilers could have “hit the bid”. I would have hit that bid.
Hollaway’s camp alleged offered 2 x $1.2 million. Again not unreasonable. Just “hit the bid”
They observed McLeod ground down twice, taking team friendly deals, and then saw his ass shipped out of town.
Broberg played hard in Bakersfield last year after being sent down, and played himself into the top four in the playoffs. He demonstrated that he could separate the hockey and business sides of the game.
if Holloway asked for 1.2, and the oilers offered 1.05 then oilers were not unreasonable either. they easily cld have found middle ground at 1.1. Holloway is a fool, as is Broberg. winning a cup wld have seen them fetch far more $$ in a Cpl yrs just like foegele has in LA. They just showed they are not confident in their abilities to do, and showed they are not team players. Good riddance. we are far better off with the saved $$, 3 extra young cheap players in Emberson, Podkolzin, Fischer, plus a 2nd and two 3rd rd picks which will bring in a better 2 RD before the deadline. Also keep in mind that both Broberg and Holloway have been very injury prone the first few yrs of their careers. I like all these moves EDM made. And if you add Skinner to the mix above we came out far ahead
Let both Broberg and Holloway flounder with the Blues for yrs to come not making the playoffs. Serves them right
The Oilers demanded 3 years from Holloway which was the dealbreaker. They were demanding he give up two arbitration years instead of one.
This is such speculative crap.
There is intel out there that they offered him a 3-year deal. There is absolutely, zero, indication they were only willing to go three years and demanded a three year deal.
This is dishonest discussion.
If all that is true (a big if) then you can’t much disagree, but they still would have been buried behind solid vets. They needed to move Kulak at the draft if that was Broberg’s bid to show some faith in the kid. That move would also have been cap positive. You don’t re-sign Perry if that was Holloway’s bid. I also think the McLeod trade played a role in this. The kid sucked up it up two time at contract time and was shipped to NHL version of Siberia as a reward.
You’re arguing against something I didn’t write. Suspect we agree, but a lot of people died in that damned war.
I think Emberson trade was happening regardless of whether the OIlers signed Broberg.
The plan was Broberg on a bargain deal AND Emberson, with Ceci out.
The other error was not trading Kulak or Ceci sooner. They needed to signal to the Broberg camp that they were making room for him.
To your point, Oilers management had telegraphed that they planned to squeeze Holloway & Broberry, prompting their agents to solicit other offers.
Hi there. I’ve not seen any reports anywhere indicating that Broberg was willing to sign for two years, at under $2M AAV. I’m not saying it’s not true, but that’s the first I’d heard of this. I did hear-tell of his agent saying that the Oilers offered him $1.1M AAV and he turned it down.
Otherwise, I can’t argue with your assertion about the choices Jeff Jackson made on July 1 vis-a-vis Broberg/Holloway OR Jeff Skinner. The evidence is circumstantial, but sure looks that way. And I’m quite sure he knew what choice he was making.
But, like I said yesterday, never forget that the players always have the last say in these things (upon the advice and urging of their agents). They either take offers, or leave them. They either sign early or wait to test the market in the summer. They’re businessmen and they follow the money, or the potential of it. In light of that, I would suggest to you that neither player had intended to sign in Edmonton early – they were advised to test the RFA market. I suspect that’s the word that Holland got over the winter when the organization supposedly “told” him to sign the players. He made offers, they were rejected, and the agents told them there’d be no more discussions on the matter until the summer.
If that was the case, I would hardly expect to sit around on his hands on July 1. From a marketability standpoint, the Oilers were a hot commodity that day. They’d just lost Game 7 of the Cup final and I suspect there’s never been a July 1 in the salary cap era where Edmonton looked more attractive.
If the Arvidssons and Skinners and Henriques and Perrys and Janmarks were willing to take a little less to sign (or re-sign) here on that day, I can hardly blame Jackson for opting to spend on them instead of holding back money and waiting around for Holloway and Broberg to come back to the bargaining table sometime after July 1. Jackson struck while the iron was hot and, as a result, had a dandy July 1.
That Broberg and Holloway decided to sign offer sheets is their right as players and they can hardly be blamed. But to blame their departure on the Oilers is, quite frankly, silly. The Blues probably overpaid for Holloway and definitely overpaid on Broberg. I wish both players well, but I’m glad the Oilers didn’t retain either of them and that means I applaud Bowman and Jackson for making sure they didn’t.
Broberg’s agent offered 2 x $1.8. Source: Elliotte Friedman emergency 32 Thoughts podcast.
Interesting. Thanks for sourcing. Obviously, this suggests that both sides weren’t all that far apart … and that the St. Louis offer-sheet was beyond ridiculous.
and 2 X $1.8MM was an over pay to market, a material one.
Just because the Blues offered a Kotkaniemi level over-pay doesn’t mean the Oilers’ offers were not reasonable.
Walk back the timeline Broberg has finally had enough of being pickled in the lovely Bakersfield. His agent publicly puts it out that his client wants a change of scenery. Holland would have taken some offers yet neither trades him or signs him. You yourself were one of the few that kept saying Broberg could get offer sheeted. We don’t know what Jackson offered the Broberg camp? How much did the Kane situation play into money offered? For all we know the Broberg camp wasn’t signing anything Jackson offered as they knew a offer sheet was coming with money and opportunities.
https://x.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1825893505149051146
According to Darren Ferris, Brobergs agent, there were multiple other teams prepared to move on offer sheets, and 2 x 1.1m was the Oilers offer in to Broberg.
Ferris’s offer was pricing in the cost of foregoing the optionality of pursuing an offersheet.
The Oilers mistake was NOT pricing into their offer to Broberg and Holloway the optionality of the offersheet. Usually the price of the offersheet option is near zero and is safely ignored. In the case of Broberg, Ferriss was willing to sell the offersheet option to the Oilers for $700K x 2.
The Oilers decline to purchase the offersheet option from Broberg for $700K x 2, so Broberg cashed it in for $3.4 million x 2, a 5X trade.
And that is why I was saying the Oilers should have just “hit the bid” in the case of Broberg and Holloway.
strongly believe the Oilers are better off long term without either player. The main value of those 2 was the fact they were inexpensive. They are not worth their current salaries while their still developing. and their future salary structure is now even higher after these deals. And with their injury prone history it’s best their gone at their price tags. I believe Podkolzin will have a better career than Holloway and he’s being paid 60% less than Holloway for the next 2 yrs. These offer sheets were a blessing in disguise for us. And especially don’t want to keep 2 players who didn’t wanna be here.
So, should all RFAs get a priced in “offersheet fear premium”?
Yes, in an RFA negotiation, the team is short the offersheet option. If they lack sufficient cap space, they can be squeezed, and the offersheet fear premium spikes from near zero to a real non-zero number.
2 players were lost to offer sheets over the 25 years prior to Tuesday – I’m thinking the hundreds and hundreds of RFAs signed in that time didn’t all get “offer sheet premiums”.
Wild stuff – why was it Holloway and Broberg or Skinner? Why wasn’t it Holloway and Broberg or Arvidsson (or Henrique)?
Knowing how this all went down, I’m confident they would have signed Skinner to that contract in any event, without further though.
Skinner & Arvidsson were UFA’s. Holloway & Broberg were apparently under team control. But there may no longer be such a thing as team control . Player agents seem to be in control.
I think the CBA is in control. 😎
The interesting comment for me by Armstrong after this all went down was when he implied that there was a code amongst league Gm’s – or at least that he had one.
He said that he wouldn’t extend an offer sheet just to drive up the cost of doing business for a competitor. For him this is why they are not seen very often. A team has to leave itself open to not being able to match before he would proceed.
Agents have always tried to get more money or better contracts for their clients.
Encouraging thoughts on Emberson here and at the Athletic for sure. Curious where new recruit Paul Fischer would fit in the Oilers top 20 prospects now? He was # 8 on Wheeler’s list for the Blues previously.
Seems to be more than just a throw in prospect. A good freshman year with Notre Dame, expanded role as a sophomore upcoming and chance to play for the US WJ team this year and talk of elite skating in scouting reports. Is certainly a Bowman pick based on his familiarity with him he noted in his presser yesterday.
I really like these two new younger D. They can skate, they defend, and they can play. They could be a little bigger but oh well
Bowman seems to have some clarity of purpose. His priorities appear to be signing Draisaitl > Bouchard > McDavid. These are the big stones that have to get fit into the bucket first.
Part of me wonders if Armstrong’s chess move here was to overburden the Oilers with a big Broberg contract and then target Bouchard with an offer sheet next summer. Whether thatvwas his intention or not I don’t know, and I suppose we never will. What is clear is that matching on Broberg this summer would have made fending off a Bouchard offer sheet much more difficult next summer.
And that’s not a risk I want the organization taking.
I think even Armstrong knows that we have to resign Boosh. I think this is a case of trying to save his job at the cost of pissing people off. He’s on the third envelope now. Props to the agents for finding a GM willing to do this. Props to the players for getting paid. But the goal has always been to resign the big three. I wonder if in the future, they look back after a moderately successful career and think, “damn, I was never closer to a cup.” Would that be worth $2m to them then, as it is now…
Maybe Armstrong thought he was playing 6D chess, and who knows, it might pay off. But at the moment, he looks to be struggling with a McDonald’s kid’s meal maze that has already been completed.
I really, really like the Offer Sheets made by Armstrong (boo as an Oiler fan but great as an NHL fan of chaos). Perfect scenario to improve his team now, and hopefully in the future. With the cap going up, and it sure will now that the Bettman Coyotes are gone, $5 million per for a second pair dman should be within the norm.
With Krug’s future playing career in question they have two years to see if, with close to 200 at-bats, Broberg can fill the 2LD position. I am betting he will get there and soon.
St. Louis’s biggest gap to accelerating their retool is a young all-around top 4 left D.
Berube failed to develop.integrate Dunn (and young players in general), and Perunovich has peaked out as a 3rd pairing offensive D.
Broberg was what they wanted and needed. Young enough to be a solution and fit in with the cluster, or to bridge the gap to their own defensive draft picks if he fails.
They better not get to that point with Bouch, don’t leave any chance
I also think throwing 1 x $1M at Tyson Barrie is a no brainer. He’s played well with Nurse in the past and can QB the PP2. Remember, this isn’t a guy we wanted to get rid of, he was part of the price for Ekholm.
Not really, he was money out. Nashville would have done the deal without Barrie, without hesitation.
Stetcher’s rels were a lot better than Barrie’s last year. I certainly don’t mind bringing Tyson in on a PTO, but I would be cautious about giving him a contract at this time.
Barrie was healthy scratched a lot last year. Like RyJo I’d stick a fork in him at this point. He might be injury cover but I’d rather test drive AHL fellas than have four of the same clogging up the works.
Yeah actually that is probably the sensible play to go the PTO route and see what you have in the new guys.
I don’t think any of the old offensive D would be anything but a liability. The Oilers still need good defensive playing players
What exactly was the Stetcher injury last year? As our D got worn down in the playoffs he sure would of been a nice option.
He had a cyst on his ankle that was infected and required surgergy.
I think there is zero need for that.
The Oilers have a ton of 3RD options. They don’t need another 3RD option and, lets be real, that’s all Barrie is at this point in his career.
They need someone that can reasonably be a solid 2RD or nothing on the right side.
If anything, its Dermott and a 4LD/7D that should get a PTO and potentially a league min deal (knocking Brown to the AHL).
I’m choosing to view this as two discrete events: the series of decisions that led to the offer sheets, and the decision to match the offer sheets.
Allowing the offer sheets to happen represents bad decisions and a failure to properly prioritize off season business. Jeff Jackson needs to wear this. He prioritized signing Corey Perry, Josh Brown, Jeff Skinner and on and on ahead of Broberg and Holloway, and he got his pants pulled down in public.
Once the offer sheets were signed, walking both players was the right decision. I’ll take Podkolzin, Emberson, a 2nd and a 3rd, and ~$4.8M in cap space this year and $6.8 next year over Broberg and Holloway. All day, every day.
I think this is mostly correct. The issues with Broberg and Holloway go back further than free agency.
If the Oilers knew that teams were interested in Bro (which they did) and he was resistant to signing a team friendly deal, they should have traded him. His value on the trade market was certainly higher than a 2nd round pick.
Yeah I absolutely agree. You could have got much more for them in a trade, but that falls in the pre-offer sheet bucket.
If they knew they would only pay them a certain amount and they wouldn’t sign at that, I would have given them what they wanted and traded them to increase the return and be in control of the process. Maybe traded them to Armstrong. They would have been tradeable at their asks, especially after the cache of the finals
Rishaug has reported there were two or three other teams ready to pull an offer sheet shenanigan on them if St Louis hadn’t. The player still had to sign the offer from the Oilers or the offer sheet to make either one a done deal. Players stalled as they anted to see how the bidding went, and the teams most interested in the players were likely the same ones considering an offer sheet, so they were not about to sweeten an offer for them appropriately if they could get them for 2nd or 3rd picks in the offer sheet scenario. I think St Louis surprised both Edmonton and the other potential scavenging teams in the game with their high offers. At more reasonable offer sheet prices the Oilers might well have matched one or both. At these levels, they really had to walk due to value relative to Cap hit.
There is a reason that, before this past Tuesday, there had only been two successful offer sheets in the last 25 years (per Bruce M. on the show this morning).
The Oilers offers in the $1.1MM range were reasonable and market for what these players had accomplished in the NHL over the course of the ELCs.
STL got the players due to massive overpays.
— I agree there are different evaluations to consider and yo do good job of boiling this down to its essence.
— Your omitting the loss of Ceci and third in this breakdown however.
— The analysis of the moves pre-offer sheet seems that the consensus is job well done.
— The analysis of the moves post Offer sheet : some agree with not exercising the ROFR some don’t: it’s a healthy debate on both sides.
— There ought to be consensus however that (Pod + Emberson + draft picks gained, 19 year old unsigned prospect ) <<< (Brahoway + Ceci and draft pick lost) and that it is massive negative equity.
— Sure hope they get coached up and they found a steal and these tryouts of a bunch of guys on D something sticks and or they make another move, with their “cap space gained”
— That’s all in the future. There is an actual current value gap of sum of parts of what came in and vs out.
Fair points.
One thing I am really struggling to understand in all this – if that Ceci trade was out there, why did they wait this long to pull the trigger on it?
— maybe bargaining : but seems like expensive way to extract a 2028 pick and unsigned guy.
— I suspect they do have another possible transaction. Try outs for a key spot for a cup contender seems like a big risk. There is a reason all these guys got get for very little : they aren’t rated high as they have limited sample sizes.
— Also it can be true that they lost a lot of value which is indisputable but also believe they did a good job under their self-induced situation.
—
The Oilers were claiming poverty in their hardball negotiations with Broberg and Holloway. The Ceci trade was delayed until Holloway and Broberg signed ocntracts keep the agents from pointing at the cap space it freed up.
The Ceci trade was always going to happen.
Were they claiming poverty or offering market deals for the player in that position and stature?
I mean, Podz, who has more NHL games and a better P/G than Holloway just signed for 2 x $1MM and Hoglander, coming off a Holloway like season, is signed for 2 X 1.1MM.
I would suggest that the Oilers offers to both these players were more in line to market than the offers from the Blues.
It is entirely possible they were still grinding out the last of the deal hoping to get some other concessions at the time the excrement hit the offer sheet ventilator shaft… then it became prudent to close the deal where it sat and use that gained cap space leverage to get something extra out of St Louis to not match. Very possible and we may never know for sure.
I don’t think there should be consensus on equity loss. It’s not clear Bro is better than Emberson, just bigger. Holloway as LT says is better than Pod right now, neither is an impact player or certain top 6 though
Ceci was a poor fit on the team. Strudwick yesterday said he likes Ceci, described him as a steady Eddy type, better than people give him credit for, but even if Ceci stayed he still thought they needed a 2RD
It’s quite possible the team is better now than it would have been with the 2 RFAs because the D has better balance and more mobile players that move the puck better the 2 RD out. I also think it’s very likely Emberson will play better than Bro would have off hand. Meaning they may have had to move Kulak to move Bro to LD
— The market though says different. It’s fine to “hope” that Emberson is better. He didn’t get a $4mm offer because no one thinks he’s worth that.
— Exchanging Broh Halloway and Ceci for Emberson and Pod and some magic beams back and forth is a brutal deal. That’s what happened. If in the absence of the offer sheet the Oilers did those trades it would be one of the all time worst trades.
— Might work out but the ommission of the circumstances for why it happened is critical.
Cope! -).
— people can disagree on magnitude of loss
— Or do you believe that the Oilers “won” the net of the offer sheet? If so explain because I’m getting downvoted and I’m just citing math and facts unless I’m missing something
— it’s ok to believe it will work hope for growth coach them up knock knock blaha blah rah rah: but I don’t get how the conclusion is anything other that loss of value
100% agree. The Oilers made the best of a bad situation they created. But the latter half of that – the bad situation they created – will have a much bigger impact on the organization than making the best of it will.
Unless we get extraordinarily lucky with one of 3 picks in the 40-70 OV range, but that will happen sometime in 2028 (for next year’s pick) or 2031 (for the 2028 pick).
(Yes, I know they could also trade the pick and get a rental that somehow pushes the team over the edge. But 3rd rounders in a weak draft don’t usually attract much at the deadline. Don’t @ me).
Josh Brown was signed at the 8D (although he’s now 7D) and labelled for the minors at a $0 cap hit. I don’t like the signing but I don’t think it effected the signing of the two RFAs
Signing the likes of Arvidsson and Skinner was non-issues – those were contracts they’d do back and sign instantly again. Jeff Skinner at $3MM has the potential to be one of the vest value contracts in the league. He has 25 goals in a down year (and a 50% goal share at 5 on 5 on a non-playoff team). The year before he had 37 goals and 82 points in 79 games and a plus goal share on a bad team. Arvidsson’s only risk is health – when healthy, he’s a 25-35 goal scorer with some jam.
The main issue was re-signing Corey Perry. Its really not an issue as he can be buried completely with zero cap hit but if they offered Holloway Perry’s $1.4MM (or even the $1.125MM prior to bonuses) on a one-year deal, Holloway likely would have signed that back in July.
Janmark is also a couple hundred grand over pay given the 3 years but he earned that in the playoffs and its really Perry that was the big head-scratcher.
LT: Could you pay money to Parkatti to have him on your show and then ask him?
No. NHL teams guard their analytics intel closely. I also consider Michael to be my friend and would never do anything to impede his impact on the team. I can refrain from talking to Michael until he’s president of hockey OPs. 🙂
The question I was hoping somebody would ask Bowman in the availability yesterday is who was summoned to the war room (physically or electronically) for the week of discussion & planning & who was parachuted in as and when there were specific questions.
In other words, who is in the inner circle because too many voices is just as damaging to good management as too few.