We’re in mid-August but the modern dog knows the trip from September long to snowfall can be exactly one heartbeat. The Game 7 disappointment still lingers. The summer was brilliant through draft, trades and free agency. That was followed by hiring Stan Bowman, which raised an eyebrow (based on his hockey resume, Dale Tallon built the Stanley teams in Chicago) because there’s a Peter Chiarelli vibe there. After that, the offer sheets set the entire fan base on its ear and we are here. What now?
One of the things I’ll be watching over the rest of the summer is additional PTO contracts spent on veteran defensemen. I’ve mentioned several times the Oilers have Gustav Lindstrom still available, yet we are reading rumours about Justin Schultz and Tyson Barrie. Seems wrongheaded to me.
It’s an especially curious decision because the team has Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher and Josh Brown on the roster, and badly need to figure out what they can bring.
This blog’s comments section reflects the uncertainty of each man. I will tell you Emberson’s numbers at Puck IQ and Natural Stat Trick suggest to me that we’re looking at a player who could thrive on this team. I don’t think anyone should be slotting him in as a lock to succeed on the second pairing, but a Brett Kulak-Ty Emberson pairing may well be more productive next season than Darnell Nurse and his new partner.
Speaking of, I’m going to dig in on Schultz and Barrie as possible partners for Nurse in my The Athletic article (probably out tomorrow). Nurse is a tough player to match with a great style fit partner. A good friend of mine who knows a ton about hockey (Paul Almeida) suggested to me that Nurse needs a Lee Fogolin (tough as nails, shutdown blue, shot blocker, blood on the ice up to your ankles, strong as an ox, will put you in a hold you can’t get out of and get away with it) type partner.
So, let’s talk it out. What kind of partner do you believe is the best style fit for Darnell Nurse?
Re: Nurse’s partner
I don’t have the time to do a deep dive into the fancies on Nurse’s past partners.
But 2 things stand out.
1. Nurse came up paired with Russell. Russell’s chaos in front of the net (remarkably effective for what it was, to be fair) and his penchant for launching unguided missiles to the other team in the neutral zone or their defensive zone rubbed off on Nurse and they’re his two biggest boondoggles that he can’t seem to shake.
2. The best partner I can recall with Nurse was Bear.
So the key here is to work backwards.
Nurse needs someone who can effectively move the puck out of trouble in the d-zone (Nurse skates it out well, but cannot seem to come close with passes) and cover for his walkabouts and random anger quests after whichever opposing player has raised his ire.
Traits:
A) good puck moving ability
B) sound defensive positioning and good range (ie, agile, if not fast, skater)
C) veteran savvy. Nurse is unpredictable, so you need a guy who’s seen a lot, whose mind works quickly, and who identifies the Pareto levers/plays as they develop.
A veteran, with solid puck passing ability and good skating and range is more likely to pick up on Nurse’s habits and account for them. Ceci’s skill and I speed were only enough to keep up with his side of play, not enough to cover for Nurse when Nurse was struggling.
Y’know how the Canadiens identified Jeff Petry in his 20s before he was established as a top pairing dman and paid pennies on the dollar to get him?
Or when the Islanders scooped (both Nick Leddy and) Johnny Boychuk at a significantly reduced rate for cap compliance and roster flexibility purposes immediately prior to the start of the season about 10 years ago?
Those are the player- and deal-types the Oilers need to identify here. Either today or at the deadline. I don’t see any obvious ones today though.
That player definitely isn’t Barrie or Schultz. Not DeAngelo either. Shattenkirk might be a decent stopgap for a year to buy some time and leverage. I honestly don’t know that much about Lindstrom.
In the meantime, I think you need to run him with Bouchard, because Ekholm can float anyone to at least break even. Or Kulak, if you don’t think Nurse-Bouch could adequately handle top opposition every night. Emberson meets a lot of the criteria, but doesn’t have that veteran savvy that I think is really important here.
My first choice would be Shattenkirk, given the current and apparent options. Better than anything in-house, has the pedigree and experience, and only costs cash.
Totally forgot about Stecher. That’s the internal play. Would still take Shattenkirk over him, if that’s available.
It’s the things that make you go hmm.
Rumours abound about Tony D’Angelo the Oilers.
https://x.com/nhltraderumours/status/1827424270613361081?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1827424270613361081%7Ctwgr%5Eae9f50d0b2bd448baf5b4ec2b0dea863793d7145%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bladeofsteel.com%2Fnhl%2Fnews%2Ftony-deangelo-linked-to-western-conference-team-as-rumours-swirl
Remember when the Oilers were so irrelevant nobody bothered to print rumours about them?
This is better. 😎
They are talking about this article from Staples (who is self-admittedly not an insider). It reads like his idea:
”4. One interesting player is Tony DeAngelo, relatively young at 28, who had a poor season in Carolina last year, just 11 points in 31 games, though he did get into nine playoff games. But in the two previous season, DeAngelo had 51 and 42 points. He’s significantly younger in NHL years than Barrie, Shattenkirk or Schultz. If he’s healthy, fit and keen to go, is he not a strong bet to team up with Nurse?
DeAngelo and Nurse starred together on the same Sault St. Marie team in 2014-15, so if there are any questions about DeAngelo’s character, Nurse can speak to that if he’s inclined, though I should add ten years and plenty of miles have passed us all by since 2015. People change and grow.”
This is another guy who doesn’t kill penalties.
Do people really think Barrie, De Angelo and Schultz are upgrades on Ceci and Desharnais?? The numbers stink. And they don’t kill.
I mean, they realize we had one of the best PKs in Stanley Cup history, right?
Even Godot can’t deny that Ceci was good on the PK. Maybe even great.
Emberson better be amazing. I get the Ceci cap dump. I don’t get a Ceci cap dump when not matching Broberg AFTER letting Desharnais slide… for $2M.
If Bowman inks one of these guys for more than minimum that’s total 🤡 stuff.
This 100%
Do you think Coffey can still play? Would he take league minimum and try the right side? I mean, you’re never too old and everyone deserves a second chance.
Let’s talk about the 3/4 lines.
We went from unstoppable depth to some real questions with the Clouder trade and losing Holloway. The uncertainty around Kane doesn’t help.
What lines do you folks have projected?
Fourth line needs a centre.
Kane is not really a fit with Henrique and Brown.
Ryan should be in Bakersfield but I think they need him to trade off with Perry since neither one should be playing 82 games imo.
I prefer Janmark on the fourth line and PK.
Philp offers the possibility of a solution at 4C but who knows if/when he will be ready.
When/if everybody is healthy and ready to go after Christmas –
Kane – McDavid – Hyman
Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Nuge – Henrique – Brown
Janmark – Philp – Perry/Ryan
Podkolzin
I do think that, if Kane is healthy, he is best suited on the top 2 lines (and likely with McDavid over Drai) – I don’t think he can be as effective on the 3rd line but, if he’s healthy, he can play that full power forward scoring game on McDavid’s wing.
I don’t think they do it.
I am all about Philp at 4C but don’t see it out of camp.
With a Healthy Kane:
Kane – Rique – Pod / Lavoie / Savoie
Janitor – ??? Not Ryan – Brown
Were back to talking about who’s going to centre the Oilers fourth line
Peterson? Hamblin?
Yes, huge potential to be old and slow in a hurry and back to running McDrai 25 plus minutes a night I guess. Don’t see a solution to this potential problem.
Skinner/McDavid/Hyman
Nuge/Drai/Arvidsson
Lavoie/Henrique/Brown
Janmark/Ryan/Podz
Perry
They probably won’t do it and will have Janmark at 3LW and Perry in the lineup over Lavoie.
If Kane is healthy, well Lavoie is out.
I don’t have an answer for that.
What I do have is a list of Nurse’s on ice results with every partner he’s played at least 100 minutes with in his career (there are 15 of them). I sorted by GF%, and the results are from 5v5 minutes. Lots of era effects involved.
Brett Kulak ————-110min 47%SF 63%GF 50%xGF
Matt Benning ——— 530min 50%SF 61%GF 51%xGF
Tyson Barrie ———- 732min 50%SF 58%GF 49%xGF
Mark Fayne ———- 108min 41%SF 55%GF 38%xGF
Cody Ceci ———– 2576min 50%SF 51%GF 52%xGF
Adam Larsson —– 1309min 50%SF 51%GF 50%xGF
Adam Clendening — 190min 45%SF 50%GF 43%xGF
Ethan Bear ——— 1443min 50%SF 48%GF 51%xGF
Kris Russell ——– 1602min 47%SF 48%GF 48%xGF
Evan Bouchard —– 786min 57%SF 46%GF 59%xGF
Eric Gryba ———– 464min 53%SF 44%GF 51%xGF
Andrej Sekera —— 428min 45%SF 40%GF 43%xGF
Vincent Desharnais 254min 51%SF 39%GF 50%xGF
Justin Schultz —— 264min 47%SF 38%GF 43%xGF
Brandon Davidson- 124min 48%SF 36%GF 50%xGF
So, Evan Bouchard.
An aging Nurse will likely impair Bouchard.
Shhh. Adults are talking.
Am I reading it backwards or was the younger Nurse not helping. ?
Ah yes, the below expected pre-Ekholm Bouchard with sustained lower Sh% + SV%. That’s gone, right?
I get that we want to see who we have with Emberson (and to a lesser degree Stecher and Brown).
But these numbers are screaming to me to sign Barrie (and not Schultz) as an insurance policy. Especially if Barrie is willing to be a healthy scratch.
Schultz has bad memories from Edmonton. Barrie has great memories form Edmonton. (Remember, we only traded away Barrie because we had to, not because we wanted to. He really picked up his physical/defensive game in the playoffs.)
Don’t get me wrong – I like the idea of trying Nurse-Bouchard, so that Ekholm can shelter a developing Emberson.
But if that doesn’t work, I’d like to have Barrie to fall back on. And he would come cheap.
Yeah, their past results would certainly suggest that.
Using those numbers, Nurse Ceci is as, or more, successful as Nuse Larsson in double the minutes. Interesting given how many are calling for Larsson while blaming Ceci.
These are the things that happen when you smash seasons together on the spreadsheet. This is what regression looks like: shades of grey. These are two of the largest samples. All numbers for the larger samples are between 47 & 52.
Boy, that’s a real dog’s breakfast of d partners, mate.
Let’s keep it simple. Find Nurse a d partner who’s an actual top 4 d, one with some tread left on the tires, that shoots right.
I like that plan Ryan. Nurse will look fine with a decent partner.
Not a lot available though. There is always a run on right handed D. Will be interesting to see what the Oilers managers come up with as a solution.
Yeah, the numbers with Barrie, Ceci and Larsson (the actual top 4 D) do float towards the top. Bouchard as well if you believe expected and ignore the actual.
Remarkably little clarity on the best ‘style fit’ for Nurse though.
Nice numbers showing regression in large samples with Ceci and Larsson looking almost identical.
Guess we’re lucky we still have Kulak!
Sporadic access to the interwebs so apologies if I don’t answer a response
I’m not sure how a pure defensive helps Nurse. Unless they have good puck skills, and then are they really that?
I think he needs a rounded player of decent quality, a Kulak type. Nurse is a rounded player of decent quality and big with better than average skating
As was mentioned the other day Bear did well but was targeted in playoffs as the outlet option. That could have been Oiler coaching that Maurice exploited. These coaches want all of the D making plays, and what happened to Nurse Bear is why
If a team can’t use a simple forecheck adjustment on a pair and neuter them it’s ideal. They don’t have to get points as much as defend and exit well and get the puck to the forwards, and help them keep it in the O zone
It worked against us in the finals, a meh looking D group on paper that could get the job done well enough. With the forward group next season solid basic play from the D will be enough I think
Kulak was the first option with Nurse. But wasn’t comfortable playing on his wrong side.
Then Broberg stepped in, and the rest is history.
It sounds like the perfect partner for Nurse is Bouchard. Way better puck skills than Kulak plus his game has rounded out somewhat with Ekholm’s tutelage.
I think not making nurse last man back and a bit more open to wheel compliments his strengths.
A solid corner retrieval, strong last man back positioning/anticipating partner with average puck distribution skills frees up nurse a bit to play more to his atrengths. Allows him to cheat in on ozone rushes more. Think of his goals and shots you recall. How mamy of those are when he sneaks down on rush?
Think of setting up zone type offense. How many ceci muffins or way wide shots do you recall compared to nurse chances?
The benefit of having Barrie as a back-up PP guy for Nurse isn’t a great argument, in my mind.
From the 2020/21 season through the end of 2022/23 – aggregate of three years, the PP scored at a higher rate with Nurse than Barrie.
They (McDavid/Drai/Nuge together) produced a GF/60 of 13.6 with Barrie and a GF/60 of 16.2 with Nurse.
I haven’t had the time I’d like, but the only constant as defensmen age is a decline in minutes.
Nurse just delivered his draft plus 11 season. His 5v5 toi peaked at his draft plus 8 season at 20:40.
Since then he’s lost roughly a minute per game each subsequent season. Last year he played 17:29 per game.
This had him at 48th in the league at 5v5 for d who played more than 500 minutes.
During the playoffs, he averaged 15:51 per game. That was 30 seconds less per game than Coci Ceci. He trailed Ekholm by a minute forty.
Notably he was also playing second pairing comp by PuckIq.
Nurse is down 3:44 in total minutes per game from his draft plus 8 season of 25:37.
Morrissey, from the same draft played 19:21 at 5v5 last season. 24:34 total per game.
Part of the loss of Nurse’s minutes is the availability of better players. How much is due to decline and what can we expect next season are questions.
Decline is real and spectacular. This was always going to be an issue with this player. D that remain elite into their 30s do so by switching their physical skills into more mental skills. Nurse unfortunately does not have this ability.
Are Nurse’ minutes declining because of his play?
Or
Are they reduced because we now have 3 real LHD NHL defenders, and Bouchard playing 95% of the PP minutes.
Nurse played about a minute three on the power play. That’s actually pretty standard for him. He topped out at 1:50 on the power play in 2018.
Kulak plays more than some 3LD.
Are we all somewhat agreed that we cheer against the Seattle Kraken this season.
I know that Adam Larsson chose to leave Edmonton and his reasons for it.
I don’t know what I don’t know but I presume that he’d be OK coming back for the stretch drive and a playoff run
I recall reading/hearing that the clincher for Larsson was that his Mother would very much rather not come visit him if he were to stay in Edmonton due to the painful memories. Never say never, but hard to think that would change.
Yes, I also recollect the same but I don’t think that would really be prohibitive of a stretch drive and playoff stretch. We aren’t talking about a term thing, or even a full season. I’m speculating that his mom doesn’t come visit from Sweden more than a couple times per hockey season, if even that, right?
Seems to me a guy like Larsson would want his Mom to come see him play in the Stanley Cup finals and celebrate it with him if he wins. Doubt he’d put her in that spot, certainly not without getting her full blessing.
Seems to me like Adam Larsson’s mom would want him to continue to chase his dream for the Stanley Cup is an opportunity presented itself.
The above has just as much of a chance of being true as the one I’m responding to, right?
We don’t know what we don’t know but I don’t recall hearing stories of any mother’s of Panthers or Oilers players flying in from Europe for the SCF. I don’t recall an stories of Barkov’s mom or OEL’s mom coming over to help celebrate.
Barkov’s Mom was interviewed after game 7 at the rink. Most hockey players are big family guys, especially with their parents.
And if Larsson is going to be traded, other serious contenders would be interested as well, so he could still pursue his dream without coming to Edmonton.
I keep seeing a deadline trade where we send another 3rd round pick back to SJS for Ceci, no retention… because of course they have no slots and wouldn’t be allowed to use them if they did. According to JP’s numbers Ceci and Larsson should wash out the same… 🤔
I have listened to Bowman’s presser a few time now. He was not involved “nor should he be” on Kane’s health plan.
1)If Kane doesn’t need LTIR this changes a lot.
2) playing 2-25; 14-49 and 27-51 will help the potential weakness of 2RHD
3) Getting Savoie, Philip and Podkolzin and Lavoie real NHL minutes before February will give Bowman all the understand he need of the teams assets. He should have lots of options to trade a forward for a very good defenseman if he needs to go that route.
.
Or whoever wins the competition to play alongside Kulak on the third pair and there will be plenty.
Even if Kane is out long term, if they don’t need to put him on LTIR, that is beneficial as they can accrue cap space.
We don’t know what we don’t know but this doesn’t sound like a scenario where, if he is out long term with surgery, that it would be for the entire season so Bowman is being risk adverse and not planning on spending LTIR money and worrying about clearing cap later.
I had some thoughts/fantasies about staring with Kane not on LTIR, accruing and then maybe he needs surgery in-season with an mid-late April recovery expectation. As it turns out, and I confirmed with Hart/Puckpedia, no matter how much they accrue, if they end up going in to LTIR then, while in LTIR, that accrual means nothing and they would need to fit in the full annual cap hit of any player under their LTIR adjusted cap.
As you say we don’t know what we don’t know but the recent information is that Kane is looking for a surgeon.
I would think of it was a sports hernia he wouldn’t need much looking.
To me, this points to the hip problem mentioned be JJ. In that case it may be serious enough to keep him out for the whole year.
It’s clear as mud but it cover the ground
The confusion make me brain go ’round
Adam Larsson is Nurses guy
He doesn’t want to play in Edmonton.
I know haha but he is the ideal guy.
Gudas doesn’t want to play in Canada.
My vote would be Fabbro, based on skills, age and price
If Larson was ever to come back to Edmonton, I’d love to see him paired with Ekholm.
What part of he doesn’t want to play in Edmonton do people not understand.
The part where there is no evidence he doesnt want to play in Edmonton.
Because of his mom? Yeah right. Memories? Those fade. Im more likely to believe he felt slighted because he wasnt protected. That and he knew his buddy Klefbom was out.
But there is no direct evidence of that either, and if there was, that was yesterday and today is different.
Professional sports.
I think if Larson is acquired at the deadline, he shows up and he plays hard.
Watch him play. Hes not emotionally invested in anything after the whistle. No scrums, no fights. Puck drops though and he goes at 100%. The man is all business.
Actually, he wouldn’t have been protected because he was a UFA so the Oilers had nothing to protect. He signed with the Kraken before the draft so he counted as the player taken from Edmonton.
R-shot Options:
Zub (the perfect solution; unlikely to happen as OTT loves/needs him)
Gudas (the next most perfect, but doesn’t want to go to Canada)
Fabbro (effective puckmover but hasn’t really been the primary mover)
Borgen (used to the tough minutes role, effective retrievals & zone exits)
TVR (good defender w/ extra year of term; mild health concerns)
Whitecloud (solid def w/ term; cheaper option coming up in Korczak)
Jokiharju (flawed but balanced & smart player; cost may not be high)
Barron (unproven but puckmoving & mobility are his calling cards)
Brodie (rough last year, but history of effective puckmoving & zone entry D)
Murphy (similar to Ceci w/ extra year but has a history of being effective)
Pionk (flawed defender but would boost the puckmoving; Barrie+)
L-shot Options:
Theodore (elite puckmover and effective def; played on a dual-LD pair)
Fehervary (elite skater with solid def abilities, unlikely but possible)
Ferraro (all-around solid and he’s used to TOUGH minutes)
McNabb (great defender of the homeplate; played on a dual-LD pair)
Under-the-radar long shot:
Ronnie Attard (6’3, attacking D w/ big shot & improved his skating who has set himself up to push for a spot but PHI has a pretty set D corps and he’s waiver eligible; Lavoie swap?)
I don’t view Rasmus Andersson as a viable option due to the likely cost to acquire (even higher because CGY) and his recent play.
Impressive comprehensiveness.
What is Eric Gryba doing?
He’s probably selling cars. LOL
I think the best partner is Evan Bouchard and Nurse can do his best Lee Fogolin impression.
Duck hunting soon for certain.
I don’t know if Darnell needs a Lee Fogolin or if he needs to be Lee Fogolin.
Who the heck is Gustav Lindstrom?
Unless we want Bouchard on the PK (I don’t) then 2RD and 3RD need to PK. Schultz and Barrie don’t. I don’t see how they’re a fit.
They’ll become an instant fit if for whatever reason Bouchard was to miss time.
They can run the entire left side plus Emb on the PK.
Does anyone want to see Nurse running the point on PP? I sure as hell don’t.
Barrie or Schultz for me is simply signed and stashed away incase of emergency to run the PP point.
The first PP is incredibly productive regardless of the defender on it, although I think everyone agrees now that Bouchard makes it better. Nurse and Ekholm have been on the second PP for some time. I don’t mind either promoted to the first PP, but probably over a large sample Ekholm would be better. Ekholm is a very flexible player who’s shown offensive smarts with the 5 man unit, which is very similar to PP 1 (subtract Ekholm, add Draisaitl).
Barrie and Schultz are basically done as NHLers. Both had terrible analytics last season. Barrie with second pairing minutes then riding the pine. Schultz with third pairing minutes. We really don’t need them on this team.
QFT
Precisely
Maybe i am missing something, but it seems obvious that Brown will be in the minors unless there is an injury. only reason to give a bottom pair 6/7 dman 3 years at $1 million, is to ensure he doesn’t get claimed. He will be able to go up and down without fear of losing him on waivers. and he is only going to be up if we need a defensive dman.
Emberson, Stetcher and Barrie/Schultz will fill out the 2/3 RD spots. They will use that lineup to get to the deadline. At the deadline you have cap space, and options to move our Kane. Which allow the Oil to move for a clear upgrade .
Side note. i think people are sleeping on Stetcher as a solid two way dman. he can play. Low cost move for solid upside if he is healthy and works out.
Also, one thing on Barrie. he is also Bouchard injury insurance when it comes to the PP. yes Nurse has played there before, but Barrie as 3RD and PP specialist is a solid move. If he falters, you get an upgrade at the deadline. Also, sa LT has mentioned, Nurse – Barrie would be the 3rd pairing based on matchup. Not ideal use of cap, but this is were we are today. And Barrie might also lesson the blow of losing Ceci (popular locker room guy, just like Barrie)
I see it a little bit differently. How about this.
He will be able to go up and down without fear of losing him on waivers. and he is only going to be up . . .
. . . for 6 to 12 games when we need a guy to make sure the clown teams with no chance of winning the game don’t get totally out of control running around trying to hurt guys.
Yes, I am looking at you, Calgary.
Vancouver just signed Sammy Blais.
6’2” 205.
Likes to hurt people.
https://x.com/canucksarmy/status/1826773816778833974?s=61
Pffft
https://x.com/StarsStripesHKY/status/1182816969512378368
He was signed to an AHL contract with Abbottsford – not a contract with Vancouver.
He will come to the NHL camp on a PTO but he has not been signed to the NHL.
Keeps the Canucks under the cap while having Blais 45 minutes away if needed.
Don’t make things up, it has zero to do with the cap – while in the AHL his cap hit would be $0, right?
In any event, the initial post was factually incorrect.
It has everything to do with the cap.
Having him on an AHL deal means they can go into camp under the cap and can at any time sign him to an NHL deal and insert him into the lineup while demoting a similar cap hit.
Puck Pedia has him listed on the Canucks roster as a UFA but that can change with the stroke of a pen with another player demoted.
Smart management.
They can do the exact same thing if he was signed to an NHL contract today.
The only thing the AHL deal does is allow him to play in the AHL without waivers.
The initial post remains factually incorrect – he is not signed with the Canucks.
In fact the Edmonton Oilers could sign him to an NHL contract today.
What nonsense.
Blais has a contract and an invitation to camp.
He IS in the Canucks system
If the Oilers want to outbid them…good luck with that.
Players on PTOs can sign with any team and, yes, sometimes they do sign with teams other than those that allowed them to come to camp on a PTO.
Facts:
1) Blais is scheduled to head to Canuck’s camp on a PTO
2) Blais is free to sign a contract with any NHL team.
Incorrect Statement:
1) Vancouver just signed Sammy Blais.
Of course, its likely that if he signs in the NHL it will be with the Canucks but that has not happened and the statement is false.
There are always surprises at camp. Josh Brown could be one of them. Because the Oil really need a big tough defenseman to step up to bat.
I’ve stated since the date he was signed, if Brown is on the NHL roster, there is an issue. As of right now, he is 7D, however, as you note, there could be a d-man added to push him down. I go with Dermott as 4LD/7D as opposed to a right side option.
I also think that the Stecher signing is so very under-rated – at $787,500, that’s a fantastic re-sign.
In the end they may end up running:
Ek – Bouch
Nurse – Emb/Stetcher/(a TDL pick-up with <1 yr to UFA: Borgen, Petry, Provorov, Gavrikov, Fabro, Savard)
Kulak – Stetcher/ Wanner/Kemp/Carrick/Brown/Emberson
I can see that any of Barrie, Schultz, Shattenkirk, DeAngelo or Addison making sense. IMO,Lindstrom makes the most sense, unless Management thinks they need a Bouchard injury contingency plan.
I was looking very closely into Lindstrom several weeks ago and he was an aspiring amateur golfer, and he had to make a decision to choose a sport in his mid-teens.
I was surprised that we’ve heard nothing about him this off-season. I’ve been wondering if he’s decided to go back to golf, have no evidence to support this.
Regarding Nurse, when I look at the numbers, I see a player whose scores depend very heavily on the overall quality of teammate, not just defensive partners. This is true for a lot of players. His quality of teammate first declined when Ekholm joined the team, and declined further when Knoblauch started as head coach and Kane became Nurse’s most common forward.
Most common teammates, followed by Nurse’s On-ice SCF% REL
(Reg)
‘21-‘22: McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, Ceci. 2.33 SCF% REL
’22-‘23: Ceci, Draisaitl, McDavid, Hyman -2.74 SCF% REL
’23-‘24: Ceci, Kane, Draisaitl, Foegele -4.32 SCF% REL
(Playoffs)
‘21-‘22: Ceci, McDavid, Kane, Draisaitl 0.53 SCF% REL
’22-‘23: Ceci, Yamamoto, Draisaitl, RNH -7.17 SCF% REL
’23-‘24: Ceci, Kane, Draisaitl , McLeod -8.49 SCF% REL
When I watch Nurse on the ice, I see a player who has a lot of bad habits, and in the playoffs a lot of those bad habits ended up as goals against. Some of that is chance, but also you have to be good to be lucky.
Kane is the next contract to move off the roster, now that Ceci is off loaded.
Nurse though should have better line mates this year. If he plays second pair, then he will get Draisatl minutes but with Arvidsson and Skinner.
Why do you want to move Kane?
He will be needed on one of the top two cream puff lines.
“Nurse though should have better line mates this year.”
Agreed.
I think the plan is to limp to the trade deadline as is and then get a veteran guy that shakes loose for Nurse.
John Carlson comes to mind, the Caps really don’t look that good again. Even though they made the playoffs last year with largely the same team, their core players (including Carlson) are aging and if they have a bad start I could see them sell a guy like that. He has another year after this one and the caps would likely have to retain to make it work for the Oilers. Lines up with the McDavid contract too.
Doughty also makes sense and aligns with the orgs direction of late. But the contract likely makes it impossible.
I tend to think the defence personnel don’t matter as much as the coaching/approach as a whole. Knoblauch and Coffey seem to have these guys playing the right way. It would not shock me to see Emberson come in and tear the cover off.
A PTO to Barrie likely has already been offered as insurance.
Adding PLD, Chychrun, Roy, Mangiapane, Thompson and a variety of depth pieces isn’t what I’d call “largely the same team”. The added support could benefit their youth and help them finish the “Last Hurrah” retool pretty quickly. I’d be surprised to see them sell heavily even if things don’t go particularly well.
I would suggest that $8MM for two years for Carlson makes it reasonably impossible as well.
I would also presume that Carlson goes nowhere until Ovi breaks the goal record.
Madison Bowey should be Nurse’s partner. They were dynamite together at the World Juniors back in 2015. He should’ve been his partner from day 1.
Madison Bowey played for three teams in the KHL last season. To say he is bouncing around the KHL is reasonable.
What was the point of signing Stecher and Brown if the organization feels that it now needs a Tyson Barrie or Justin Schultz?
What was the point of trading Ceci when the organization new that it wasn’t going to match the Broberg offer AND they weren’t comfortable with their Stecher/Brown signings?
What was the point of not matching on Broberg when the organization had a trade of Ceci worked out and they weren’t comfortable with their Stecher/Brown signings?
It doesn’t seem like a well thought out plan for Right D for this season.
The plan for right d was always to get by with depth pieces and upgrade at the deadline. To do that you need cap space, which Oilers now have by not matching. To allude to your other points of Stetcher/Brown, Injuries do happen, often. Can never have too much defensive depth. As for the perfect partner I wld strongly recommend a Lee Fogolin type who has already proven to be successful with Nurse, and got Nurse that massive contract= Adam Larsson. It may have to wait to see if Seattle falls out of the playoff race but I’d go after him hard, and resign him for a few more yrs too. Despite what many fans still believe the Oilers won the Taylor hall trade, biggie and for a lot less cap $$. Taylor has never done anything to elevate the five other teams he went to after the Oilers, most of the time his team misses the playoffs
Well he did win the Hart trophy one year..
Depth. In one word.
Explain how removing Ceci, Broberg and Desh and replacing with Stecher, Brown and Emberson is an increase in depth?
They will also be adding a couple more depth defensemen on PTO’s. In case you didn’t know Broberg was offer sheeted and they had to trade Ceci for cap purposes and vinny signed with the Canucks. But you knew that didn’t you?
They had no choice. Now they are in a better situation cap wise.
I agree they are in a better position cap wise but would suggest they are in a worse position roster wise.
Lots of “depth” on the right side but, after Bouchard, its a quantity of players that are realistically 3RD options and we are hopeful that one that many had never heard of a week ago can pop to legit every day 2RD.
No depth on the right side – but the healthy 3 are very strong as a group.
So now your position is that Brown is part of a very strong group?
I was responding to your post that consisted in it’s entirety of “Depth. In one word.”
And your response is to introduce bringing in more players and cap space. You can’t even follow your own discussion point. Your response(s) emphasis my initial point.
Who could salvage Nurse? Drew Doughty. Both play-wise and because he wouldn’t lay off until the guy played the game the right way.
Only Nurse can salvage Nurse.
It seems this is true – I mean, I believe the numbers are what they are and there are various d-men that have worse numbers with Nurse than without.
I do question how much of that is an increased QoC when with Nurse?
At the same time, there was a material stretch of time when Darnell Nurse carried “lesser partners” on a top pairing playing increasingly difficult minutes.
Nurse carried a rookie Ethan Bear, and raw Evan Bouchard, a flawed Tyson Barrie and a Cody Ceci batting above his pay grade and established levels of ability.
Nurse played top pairing minutes with all the mentioned partners and, I believe, for the most part, kept his head well above water.
Darnell Nurse has regressed over the last couple of seasons, really since Ekholm was brought in. I don’t know why, Ekholm should have helped Nurse by taking some of that load off.
This regression culminated with Nurse playing the worst hockey of his career (once established) in the playoffs. I am convinced he was banged up (and really hurt in the SCF after game 2) but, well, that in itself has become a thing in the playoffs.
His ice time in the playoffs was cut and cut and cut – was that due to injury or performance? Probably both.
Darnell Nurse is also not even 30. I believe his skating remains at peak levels and we aren’t seeing any age-related regression.
I believe that Darnell Nurse could and should be able to anchor a strong 2nd pairing. For crying out loud he anchored a 1st pairing for years and did well, even away from McDavid.
Whether its Stecher or Emberson, Darnell Nurse should be able to anchor that pairing. I hear/read that Emberson can skate and move the puck a little and defend zone entires and is a very good defensive player – well, sounds like Nurse/Emberson should be able to play relatively tough 2nd pairing minutes, no?
Come on Darnell, recover to established post-Klefbom levels – if you do, we might see Stanley!
I have to take issue w the idea Nurse carried Bear – throw numbers at me if you got ‘em, but to my eye out the box Bear was a better defender than Nurse, good stick, better awareness, better positioning, certainly a better passer. I couldn’t believe how well Bear adapted over that short period he and Nurse were the de facto top pair. COULD be, we’re looking for a Bear, stylistically, to partner up with Nurse.
Sure, that’s fair, and I don’t have numbers to throw at you.
I only have (1) the eye test and (2) the fact (I think fact) that Bear has never really ever had close to the level of success as he had playing that season with Nurse, at least for any real sustained period.
It is not impossible that Nurse is facing an age-related downswing.
https://hockeyviz.com/txt/age22
I understand the concept of “age related regression” and, from watching every game that Darnell Nurse has played as a NHL player (give or take one or two here or there on vacation), I don’t see any physical degradation of skills.
I also understand that the above is the type of post that someone looking to respond in a way that is negative to the Oilers organization would make.
Nah. Let Nurse step in and take some of the pressure off Ekholm who’s even older.
Or just give him the motivation of being in the top pair with Bouchard and staying there.
I think Ekholm stole some of his thunder. He wants to be the big minute guy on the top pair. Earn that contract of his.
Nurse already had that partner, in Adam Larsson. Unfortunately the results left us wanting. As much as I loved watching Larsson, he didn’t use his passing ability nearly enough.
If he’d alter his preference to not play in the fishbowl Canadian market, Radko Gudas would fit that description to a tee.
Charlie McAvoy would be ideal. Not happening. Checking down a tier, Brett Pesce, but also not happening.
I wonder if there’s a chance Lou would consider moving Scott Mayfield depending on how their season goes. Neal Pionk, if things go sideways in WPG. Will Borgen if the SEAmen sink again.
Another option is a trial run for Ivan Provorov. He’d be on his off side, but he might otherwise be an excellent match with Nurse.
I agree on this.
I think we can be certain that at least one PTO d-man will be brought in – Stauff said exactly that.
He also suggested it was someone that’s played in the league lately and that Knob has a history with – that screams Travis Dermott to be and that makes a ton more sense to me that the likes of Barrie and Shultz.
The Oilers are locked and loaded at opening night LD but, of course, there is a massive gap to the 4LD (Gleason, Dineen).
On the right side, I fully acknowledge the lack of an established 2RD, however, the Oilers are 4-strong on the right side (Bouch, Emberson, Stecher, Brown) plus Kemp.
We all know that I don’t understand the Josh Brown signing and I don’t think he’s more than a replacement level player but he’s got hundreds of NHL games underneath him and provides an injury fill-in option.
I’d like to see Dermott get the chance and, if shows well and is signed to a league min deal, I’d like to see him at 4LD and likely on the roster at 7D at a cap savings over Brown.
The only justification I can see for the 3-year term to Brown is it likely discourages teams from a waivers claim.
I like Tyson Barrie as a person and Justin Shultz developed in to a player that, in his prime, could fill that 2RD hole well. Both these players are clearly past their primes and I don’t think they are options at 2RD.
I think Emberson is a “better bet” for 2RD and don’t see the need to add another potential 3RD option.
Bowman did say the signed guys need an opportunity to play.
I think Emberson is a “better bet” for 2RD
That is indeed what I posted!
Barrie is as far away from a Fogolin type player as is possible. If Barrie is signed as Bouchard insurance, then he should be playing in the AHL until needed. In the meantime, they need to have a 3RD who can PK.
I’m thinking they might carry 8 defensemen & 12 forwards if they go with a 22-man roster. Or maybe they try for a 23-man roster, even better. That’s where this cap flexibility could come in handy.
If they sign Dermott that’s a pretty good job cleaning up on all the Coyotes bottom D
But as you said they need a better player than the LD in the A that they can move up and down fairly safely and will accept it
Bringing Schultz in for anything more than a small favour to get him some viewings would be unwise. Not only has he been getting caved (negative rels in both off & def categories), he’s doing so despite getting VERY favourable deployment (3rd pairing mins, 54-58% OZS, highest OTF starts/60, sub-25% Vs Elites).
I feel confident saying that Barrie would be a better bet than him.
Same. And I have no idea where Barrie’s game is at these days.
The way I see both of Schultz & Barrie is that they are former top pairing guys that at this stage of their careers are forced to play in the bottom pair. I would prefer Tyson Barrie who has played more recently with this team, who played well with Kulak and picks his game up for the playoffs.
I recall seeing a comparison of numbers among Shattenkirk, Barrie and Shultz and it was Barrie that was, by far, under water the most.
Dale Tallon did indeed build the teams but lets not forget that:
1) Stan Bowman was in management for close to a decade while those teams where being built, in roles with increasing responsibility. I would presume that Bowman had some input and assisted in building those teams.
2) Bowman took over GM duties in 2010 and there was significant re-tooling of the roster for the 2013 cup with and the 2015 cup win. Further, the Hawks, 7 years after Bowman took over, were first in the West in 2017.
I’m not saying he was a brilliant GM and fully defending the hire but I do think he should get more credit than he generally does for what the Hawks were from 2010-2017.
Bowman’s early move of signing Marian Hossa helped put them over the top and secure 3 cups. I don’t believe the Hawks win even ONE cup without the brilliant Hossa who along with Datsyuk were the 2 best defensive forwards in the NHL
Everyone only talks about Bowman trading Panarin. what about giving him credit for finding Panarin! Panarin wasn’t a trade he wanted to make, he was asking for 9 million on a long term deal. Hawks only had his rights for 2 yrs as a Euro free agent. so to go from $800k entry level to 9 mil long term for a 30 goal scorer was unheard of. He settled for 6 mil on a 2 yr bridge in Columbus but left for nothing as a free agent. Panarin only hit 40 plus goals and 100 pts this past season at age 32, hovering usually at the 25-30 goal level. don’t think you can blame Bowman for having to deal Panarin, no one but a desperate Columbus team looked to acquire him and sign him for a short 6 mil, which is equivalent to about 9-10 million today
Talk is cheap. Can’t we hurry along to the exhibition season and see what the pairings look like on the ice?
Imo just get a good defenseman, probably just a rental for this season.
I hope Winnipeg has a miserable year and we somehow see Neal Pionk in Oilers silks for a few months.
I’m still trying to wrap my ahead around the Emberson trade. Not only did he have good advanced stats in the NHL, but his numbers in the AHL and NCAA look good as well.
He had the second best +/- on the team when he played for Knoblach and was named defensive defenseman of the year in the east. He also had the best +/- on his team in the final year of NCAA. He had bad numbers his first year in the AHL, but so did everyone else in the team.
These stats can be misleading for sure, and there could be significant deficiencies in his game not reflected in +/-, but surely three years of numbers like this can’t be a fluke.
IDK. It just looks like such a bad trade for San Jose.
San Jose needs to be bad and collect high picks. Or that would be my approach.
Listening to Sheng Peng, both on LT and on ON and they wanted Ceci as a veteran established top 4 guy – Peng says Ceci is better right now.
Doesn’t fit their window and is a maybe given his small sample size.
Ceci will fetch more at the deadline when they flip him.
Isn’t that description fitting of Mr. Josh “1×3” Brown?
Josh Brown is a marginal NHLer. If he is on the second pair we are in trouble.
Josh Brown – Arizona Coyotes 2023/23: 51games, 10points, 75 PIM, and +2 for the season. How can you say that’s marginal player. Seems like there is potential there on the 5/6 spot.
Well, last season he was healthy scratched quite a bit and often in the lineup in a 7D setting.
At 5 on 5 he played 3 minutes less per game than Stecher and 1:40 less per game then Travis Dermott.
I would suggest that he’s a 6/7 at best.
I’d love to see his physical presence alongside Kulak on the third pair.
Looking at the naturalstattrick defensive pairs data, Nurse is around 50% in all advanced stats (CF%, FF%, xGF%, etc) with most partners – Larsson, Barrie, Bear, Desharnais, Ceci. Ceci’s numbers being a little better than others in the 52, 53 range. The outliers being Bouchard and Ekholm (smaller sample size) both working amazingly well with Nurse, numbers in the 60s. Seems like Nurse needs a partner who is all round good.
Bouchard is the answer
Yes. Nurse just needs a better partner. Style is less of a concern IMO.
The best Nurse has ever played was in the World Juniors with an all-tool smooth skating left shot right D in Jose Theodore.
Ironically, Anaheim foolishly lost Jose Theodore for a bag of pucks also, because they insisted on viewing Theodore as a left D, blocked by Lindholm and Fowler, and wouldn’t play him on the right side in favor of inferior right shot RD. Vegas said hello and thank you, and promptly played Theodore mostly on the right side ever since.
The Oilers just let a facsimile of that guy go to St. Louis.
You should write a fantasy novel.
Also, Shea.
What an NHL career!
From star NHL goalie to unheralded defenceman to star again. Amazing! The guy must be nearing 50 and still playing every night.
And clearly underwent massive cosmetic surgery in the meantime. Not to mention that late-age 3-inch growth spurt.
Someone write a movie script about this guy.
Ho-Shea Theodore…very, very tricky Mr. G
Not sure why, but I skipped down to your question before reading your comments from your friend. So I guess without technically cheating I fully agree and endorse Paul Almeida’s take. Simply put, Nurse is not that kind of player, at least in this man’s uncertainty, not anymore.
I feel Coffey wants one outlet player per pairing or one player to “wheel wheel” up ice in transition. Nurse is better suited for this system and has the boots.
The answer is probably Chris Tanev. But I’d take Kris Russell
Jason Smith.
Will Borgen
I support Borgen as one of my best bets among the names tossed around. If SEA doesn’t take a step forward this year and/or Larsson re-signs, I could see them moving on from Borgen around the deadline. Solid puckmoving while playing a very tough role alongside Oleksiak.
Chia is definitely the closest comparable. Hopefully lessons are learned but in life, and even more so in sports, an old dog doesn’t learn new tricks.
Saving grace might be that Bowman unlikely has as much control here. Another favour to Dad.
The Blackhawks were all sorts of dysfunctional in the Wirtz days. Bowman was the GM of record but I doubt he was the one calling all the shots. The same is true in Edmonton, where Jackson will have final say on things.
By all accounts Bowman has worked hard to shed himself of the old boy hockey mentality and broaden his perspective. The Oilers have always been a team to look beyond past personal failures, and provide people with a second chance to redeem themselves.
Thats one of the things that I find endearing about this team.
Well said.
A tip o’ the hat.
There’s a time and place for everything, now is not the time I would have picked to ‘pull a solid’.
Who would you have hired as GM?
Out of the possible candidates floated around here, Hunter or Gilman. I would have kept Holland or promoted Brad Holland before Bowman.
Now you have Brad Holland working with Stan Bowman.
I would suggest that Brad Holland, and pro scouting, along with Michael Parkatti, and the analytics department, were key in identifying Ty Emberson.
Yes, I’ve said that it is unlikely Bowman has autonomy. Still would not have hired him.
“a solid” for who?