In the fall of 2019, Tyler Benson, Cooper Marody and Kailer Yamamoto were looking for the same kind of opportunity afforded Anton Slepyshev in 2016-17. Slepyshev scored 4-6-10 in 41 games (455:52, 1.32 points-per-60, all at five-on-five) playing mostly with Drake Caggiula, Milan Lucic and Leon Draisaitl. Benson and Marody never got out of the starting blocks.
Yamamoto? His skill gave him a cherry chance on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins just past Christmas 2019. Yamamoto floored it and won an NHL career. Who’s next?
WHO’S NEXT?
I have Matthew Savoie at around a point-per-game in the AHL for 2024-25. In his draft year, Red Line Report said “all he does is score and play at a really high tempo” and is that any good on a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as the top centers? Red Line compared him to Seth Jarvis and rated him No. 5 in his draft year. He has good speed and is magic with the puck, and the RW depth chart has old men for days.
I think Savoie is an underrated story as we get ready for camp. Seriously. This guy played six AHL games one year ago and went 2-3-5. He had 10 shots, 6 pims (he’s no shy violet). I rate him as a player who could force his way on to the roster, in a feature role, based on merit. The Ken Holland slow plays are hopefully a thing of the past.
Matt Savoie. He’s an outstanding NHL prospect, and he landed in an incredible situation. Just like Yamamoto Christmas 2019.
A big show today on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 radio at noon. Jason Gregor is back, he’ll be our guest and talk about the Oilers, Elks and more. We’ll chat MLB and Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and the Blue Jays new pitching star. Declanations will tackle weekend college football action and it’ll be a blast. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Will the Oilers entrust Stuart Skinner with another playoff run as No. 1 goalie?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5722238/2024/08/26/oilers-stuart-skinner-playoffs-stats/
I can’t imagine a scenario save injury where Stu doesn’t start.
New for The Athletic: Edmonton Oilers’ search for ideal Darnell Nurse partner marches on
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5720645/2024/08/25/edmonton-oilers-darnell-nurse-defense-partner/
If true doesn’t this mean that we know what the answer is, but don’t want to face it?
Let’s give K.K- Coffey&Stuart a training camp and the 1st half of the year working with a fresh Nurse and his new partner. It seems to me they targeted apparently rock solid Emberson for the Nurse pair as coach K.K knows the strengths and weaknesses of both men.
Nurse has regressed from his peak play for about 2 seasons, culminating in a very poor stretch drive followed by a horrendous playoffs.
It appears that numbers show he’s been a draft on his partners generally over the last bit.
Lets also not forget that Darnell Nurse has anchored a 1st pairing, on a good hockey team for multiple years, taking in increasingly tougher quality of comp minutes and doing it with a revolving door on non-1st pairing partners (a rookie Bear, a raw Bouchard, a flawed Tyson Barrie and a “batting above his abilities” Cody Ceci) – during those 1st pairing minutes, the Oilers did pretty darn good over the years, even when McDavid was off the ice.
I believe Nurse will re-set this off-sesaon, get healthy and I look forward to Nurse anchoring a strong second pairing this season – playing a more physical brand of hockey and getting back to where he was a few seasons back.
Unfortunately two seasons seems to be a trend that one can’t ignore
Do you mean his xGF% going from 53% in 22-23 to 54% in 23-24?
This is a math liking blog and we do what we can with what is out there, but we can also try to deduce things that we actually don’t know if true
It is unclear why Nurse is getting the results he does. If it isn’t a chronic health issue which I guess we have to assume, then I lean to thinking about what we know about the player. As I often say I think most players are very dependant on teammates. Defense are at the mercy of the forwards, the goalie at the mercy of all of the skaters
I think therefore it’s hard to dial in on defensemen with stats and know if it means anything real, good stats or bad. To me we know Nurse’s strengths and weaknesses. He isn’t a great passer consistently, better at skating the puck. He has had better results with decent defenders that can move the puck and help with that
He gets scrambly and his technique has had some issues such as skate position, putting pucks in his own net and screening the goalie too much. We also know that OIler forward support comes and goes, it hasn’t been consistent for years, even if it’s getting better. Not having a reliable outlet or forwards meeting the assignments is going to make him scramble and try to do too much and make poor reads, which rarely seems to work out for him
He’s not going to be that much different at this point, but has a chance with a new opportunity now with different partners, more time with the system and more good coaching. If he is healthy I think he can stabilize and be more effective. I feel fairly confident things will be better
But then I lean on the side that Ceci and Des were about as wrong for him as you could get. I’m not sure what Holland was seeing in some of the players he liked. No tolerance for rookies, no vision with players that made a lot consistent basic mistakes in play
I’m assuming you mean Ceci since this comment is in your paragraph about Ceci, but can’t this same comment be made about Nurse? Strange how the guy making $9.2 gets a pass, but the guy making $3.2 is crucified.
I put up numbers a few days ago. Nurse was dragged by Ceci and better away
I think it’s fair to say, salary apart, that Nurse has more talent than Ceci or Desharnais
Ability is the most important thing
So we don’t care bout “value contracts” anymore?
They and we are because that anchor is staying put. His partner until the deadline has to be low cap. Just hope he has a better season
He doesn’t need to anchor the 1st pairing, Bouchard will. Nurse just needs to support his defense partner. Less is more. That’s why Bouch is, IMO, the best partner for Nurse.
I’ve spent 3 hrs this evening reviewing Emberson’s season, after spending 3 hours last week doing the same. He is what I’ve said previously, he has a high defensive conscience, moves his feet well, not an elite skater, but his defensive positioning is high-level, lets call him Opposite Addison…
Since I went there…Rutta also gets caught frequently playing in no man’s land, I mean A LOT. Benning skates like he has five pound weights stuck on his boots. I’ve got time for Kyle Burrows and Henry Thrun has great wheels, he could be something in a couple of years. Ceci is a much-needed addition to that dcorps.
Back to Emberson, he plays 2 on 1’s very well. He is very good at shutting down the pass option and keeping the puck carrier to the outside. He has an okay stick, being just over 6’, he doesn’t have a great reach, but he is about average with the poke check and deflections.
As I’ve said previously, he makes sneaky good short breakout passes in the dzone, but isn’t to shabby at the long pass, either. He is superior to Ceci at puck retrievals and is a lot more physical/aggressive than Ceci on the boards.
He’s a really smart player, good at holding the puck in at the blueline and he keeps things really simple in the ozone, but he is better at consistently getting the puck on net to create chances (rebounds, tips, shots) than all of the recently departed dmen, except for maybe Broberg, when Broberg uses his skating. Emberson also is very good at picking his spots for pinches. He rarely gets caught, no breakaways on his watch, so far that I’ve seen.
He is not perfect, but doesn’t get burned by fast, high skill players, so that was cool to see. He had 2 rough games vs Seattle, in one, he gave the puck away with a bad pass and it resulted in a dented cross bar, he also got caught from behind, had the puck stolen and passed into the slot, which hit the post. He’s was caught behind his next twice like that, so far in my viewings, hopefully something he learns to eliminate from his game, because he does not have very good acceleration.
I am also thinking horseshoes might be part of his arsenal (pun intended 🤪). Lots of dented posts and crossbars on his watch, as well. But I’ve had him under a microscope, so maybe this is part of a good defensive dman’s repertoire… does any on track this?
All in all, he is impressive shutting down top competion. I hope he stays healthy, because I think we found the answer to that question. This ain’t no Mark Fayne, this guy could very likely be this generation’s version of Jason Smith.
Godspeed young man…
Cale Makar’s too expensive and he isn’t available. 😉
Plus many of his on ice numbers were worse than Nurse’s last year.
His relative SCF% in the playoffs is trending down like Nurse as well. Eerie.
I sincerely hope I’m wrong, and even if I am wrong, I still believe we have a true cup contending team, and let me be clear, I I love Darnell nurse as a player and from what I know if him, he seems to be a pretty amazing human as well, but that being said, I do feel his cap hit vs what he actually provides in a hockey sense is the single biggest prohibiter to us being a lock to win a cup.
Imagine Darnell Nurse at a a cap hit of around 6m per…which even at that might still be a little high, but I digress, a 6m Darnell opens up so much more opportunity on our roster and aligns much more favorably with what he actually brings to the table monetarily wise.
Now that the dust has settled I do think that Skinner contract was the mistake that was made that led us to where we are at. That scoring is nice but he’s kind of like Kane where he’s a black hole defensively and while he would be a decent filler for Kane we don’t know if Kane is actually going to be gone. That money sure would have been nice to fill that RHD chiasm
I definitely disagree.
The scoring should be more than nice – he had 24 goals in a down season on a meh team and is one season removed from 37 goals and 82 points in 79 games.
He’s also been a 50% or greater goal share guy at 5 on 5 in each of the last three seasons – on a non-playoffs team.
1 X $3MM could prove to be one of the best value deals in the league this season.
Best value looks more like Wyatt Johnston.
21 years old
32G 65P
Cap hit $895K
As I recall, he was drafted right after Xavier Bourgault.
Skinner’s recent “down season” may be age related.
We’ll see.
You do know the difference between UFA and rookie contracts?
Of course.
Finding extreme value often involves superb drafting and development of players on ELCs.
It rarely involves sighing over 30 players who may be showing signs of aging out.
Dallas is the poster child for this with Johnston, Stankhoven, Bourque and others making an impact very early on.
Jealousy and envy is all your posts signal.
Mavrik Bourque turns 23 in a couple of months and, as of today, has zero NHL points.
Please explain your definition of “making an impact very early on”…….
Oilers beat their ass pretty handily if you recall.
Good Grief – what in the world makes you think its productive to take this discussion and try and find and name players you think have better value contract? Please tell?
Not to mention, the post says “could prove” and “one of the” so, again, what the eff is your point.
Even if naming players on their ELC is not comparable.
Jackson created two holes in the roster with that signing. He didn’t get the critical business of getting Holloway and Broberg signed before he made that deal.
Why did he create two holes with the SKinner signing and not the Henrique signing or the Arvidsson siging.
If anything, Perry and the Janmark overpay took the cap space for Holloway.
There was one actual top6 winger missing. 2 when Kane can’t play
Holloway had not grabbed it. Foegele ya no. Given how hard the high offense team has scoring in later playoffs in tight series that was the right call, better 5v5 scorers on value deals
Arvidsson was a great pickup for that
Skinner is even better – he’s one of the top 5 on 5 goal scorers in the league.
I honestly think ‘play driver’ is a more accurate description than ‘black hole defensively’.
In his 6 year Buffalo career, the on ice numbers with Skinner vs. without were:
Skinner ON 51.3%SF 52.4%GF 50.6%xGF
SkinnerOFF 48.0%SF 44.5%GF 46.7%xGF
And recall his Buffalo career included an awful 2nd and 3rd years (23 and 14 points).
Through that, he was 23rd in even strength goals and 58th in even strength points over the 6 seasons.
And for those that value it, he played 29-41% against elites those years (last 4 seasons all between 32% and 35%).
His DFF%rel by year: +8.2, -0.8, +9.1, +5.1, +4.3, -1.8. Strongly positive overall.
And his GF% vs elites was 52.1% (over 50% 4 of the 6 seasons).
Whatever he’s doing on defense, he’s managed to consistently and handily outscore ever years on a non-playoff team.
Thank you for posting numbers.
Every time I read about how Skinner is terrible defensively, I point out that he’s been 50% or above goal share on a non-playoff team each of the last three seasons.
I’m not sure there was a viable right shot defenseman out there on July 1. But I do agree that Jackson signed 1 too many players.
Everyone is ragging on Holland for not locking up Broberg and Holloway earlier, and he does deserve some of the blame, but it was Jackson who put the Oilers over the cap on July 1. And he did it before locking up his 2 most important RFAs.
I can easily imagine a scenario where Jackson signs Broberg for 2 x 2.5, Holloway for 2 x 1.5 and passes on Jeff Skinner. Who knows if those signings were possible, but I would prefer that roster to the one we have right now.
Two weeks ago, those both would have been seen as overpays by the majority of the fan-base.
That Broberg suggestion is double what most Oiler fans though he would come in at for two years.
Broberg was only asking for 2 x $1.8 million. Holloway $1.2 million.
Which would have been seen as overpays two weeks ago (for Broberg and that would be high for Holloway on a one-year deal taking him to arb).
I lean to what Gregor thinks about Bro. They may have used playing in the playoffs as leverage to sign. I think because that didn’t happen they were waiting to solicit offer sheets, Bro wasn’t signing. Holloway was probably doable, but I imagine they thought Bro was gone, and could wait on Holloway
Really all they needed to do was trade Ceci early, did it anyway
Gregor was on the show this afternoon and talked Emberson a bit. Said he didn’t have any personal opinion as he’s never seen him play but he talked to two AHL coaches who coached against him in the AHL and two scouts. The word they all used was “solid” and the general consensus is he’s very good in front of the net with body positioning and his stick and a good skater.
Truth be told, net front is our where this team’s defensive group has been quite weak over the last while.
True about weak net front and sticks
On the Oil Stream, Gazolla saying someone from the org told him “Kenny effed us” and was talking after leaving the org. Implying that Holland put the offer sheet idea to Armstrong.
I take that whole scenario with a grain of salt.
Gazzola thinks Emberson is a “decent 7 – hope I’m wrong”.
At the same time, Gazzola thinks that losing Broberg and Holloway doesn’t decrease the team’s cup chances this year.
Gazolla also pumping Tyson Barrie’s tires – presumes he’s better than Emberson and says he’s for sure better than Brown (that is likely true).
Goes hard on Trotz not liking Barrie and the Preds went out of their way not to play him.
He’s kind of all over the place today.
I can see that being the case where Trotz preferred other players to Barrie.
I have doubt Barrie would fare better in an Oilers uniform than he would in snot-yellow Predators silks.
Gazolla is a nice guy. But his hockey takes are very mid.
Did this conversation take place when the two buddies were sucking back beers in the middle of the lake in early July.
IMO, the entire Broberg trade demand and offersheet was the brainchild of his very aggressive agent.
I wonder if Ferris was also partially fuelled by some kind of FU JJ agenda.
No proof, just personal speculation.
Matty with some tangential Oilers news:
Sylvain Rodrigue has joined the Panthers’ org.
Mikko Koskinen has retired at 36.
Jim Matheson:
Sam Gagner, who turned 35 two weeks ago, still wants to play, he says, after spending half his life as an NHLer. Not ready to retire. He’s had a few tryout offers. Maybe no room here, though. He says his body feels really good. Sam has played 564 Oiler games in three stints.
Maybe the Canucks will PTO him a fresh Gagner may still have some life in him.
Calgary would make more sense.
Responding to LTs thoughts airwise
Bowman was hired partly because he didn’t want carte blanche, Jackson talked about collaborative. It’s possible others wanted more control
While I was not a Chia fan, the moves he made had OBC all over them. They had been trying to draft a Lucic clone for years, hiring Pete gave them an inside track and it worked out, unfortunately
It was out there that they had had enough of young Hall, there were rumours about off ice and other things. He wasn’t a mature fellow as a younger guy, and the OBC viewed everything through the lens of how they did it as young men and what that team was like
My take is he was asked to move Hall, and given everything I’m not sure what value he had, although some GMs said they didn’t know he was on the market, perhaps they wanted Larsson, as the OBC seemed to get fixated on certain players
The Oilers were fixated on Reinhart as well, and other former Oil Kings. The trade was awful and maybe that’s on Pete. I don’t see it as a coincidence Pete did everything they had been trying to do for years with players they wanted
Does anyone have a link for the 2015 draft when the camera panned to Chiarelli as they announced the Reinhart trade?
The look on his face…
Chiarelli did also trade Seguin under similar circumstances though.
Almost certainly the same circumstances. They ‘were’ both flakes
BPA, can’t control cohorts
Seguin showing up to the rink never changing clothes. In a control oriented original 6 org. They could have mentored him more but that was before this era
Yeah, just saying it may not all have been the Org since Chiarelli ultimately traded both Taylor and Tyler before they turned 25.
Imagine Nurse on LTIR prior to 2025 trade deadline 😱
absolutely not.
LT mentioned on the radio a GM taking time to get to know the players. I lean to that if your an NHL GM and can’t figure it out in a few weeks – there is game video – you probably shouldn’t be one
I’m surprised Yamamoto can’t find a contract. Although I should say, I have noticed that players that have moved on from Edmonton the last few years have struggled to maintain there level of play. I wonder how much it changes a players output going from a top 5 goal scoring team to lesser one. I really do think mcdavid and dri float a lot of boats. It will be pretty cool to see them both with real top 6 wingers this year.
I would say it’s that they are exposed for the player they are. Any decent player should get a huge boost playing with Connor or Leon
2 Mutts on their pod this morning saying their sources say the deal likely gets done before training camp and its going to be 8 years and $13.5MM and then say that Leon will be taking a discount to re-sign in Edmonton.
For me, $13.5MM would be a discount on a 4 year deal, not an 8 year deal but I won’t bitch and will be happy to get it done.
2 Mutts also says, for some reason, if its not done before camp, the Drai side won’t negotiate during the season.
Just get it done I can’t see either side grinding each other. If the talks stall and he isn’t signed he needs to be traded ASAP. We can’t afford to lose Leon to free agency. With playing him without the extension you also risk injury without getting the basket worth of fresh fruit for him. If Leon signs Connor&Bouchard follow and we have 10 seasons of cup runs.
Agreed. Cap space isn’t enough for good players, you also need the assets they can bring
I hope these guys get ahead of such things and aren’t stuck signing contracts that aren’t good or letting guys walk
There is absolutley no indication that anybody is grinding anybody. If anything, the sense is that the deal is essentially done and they’ll announce it when it makes sense, during a real press conference when all the parties are in Edmonton – which is currently not the case.
If for some reason its not signed before the season (which would be a shocker), I would suggest there is zero chance in him getting traded prior to the season or any time soon.
Until Leon-Connor-Bouchard are signed I take nothing for granted. What do you purpose we do if Leon isn’t signed he said no contract talks if he doesn’t sign this summer I believe if he doesn’t sign he’s made his decision and will have told the organization in good faith.
Did Leon say no contract talks or did 2 Mutts say no contract talks?
There is no indication he won’t be re-signing over the next month.
None of the players are even back in Edmonton yet (Drai expected to arrive this week).
I seem to recall you are in favour of grinding.
You of all people and your eternal axe grinding.
FYI, not sure why this Oilers fan hangout is your favourite bridge….Mark Messier last played NHL games for your provincial team and I would argue he is far more legendary in the Big Apple than itty bitty E-Town.
I hear Draisaitl and McDavid are going to do the Crosby value deal…
Crosby – #87 – Contract = $8.7 million per year
Draisaitl – #29 – Contract = $2.9 million per year (ok, $12.9 million per year)
McDavid – #97 – Contract = $9.7 million per year (or $97 million/8 years = $12.125 million per year)
I guess $13.5 million is below what Draisaitl would get in free agency, but it’s hard to call it a value deal.
McDavid comes in at what?… $15 million per year?
Bouchard… $10 million per year?
I hate the salary cap.
Now that we have a rich owner who doesn’t seem to mind spending money on his hockey team, we’re not really able to take advantage.
Yep. It is going to be very hard to win with 9.5, 10, 13.5, and 14 million dollar cap hits on the same team. Especially when one of the cap hits belongs to a 3/4 dman.
To me 4 big contracts is one too many. They also have too many 5M players given they are top heavy, only Kane is moveable
I too really hope McDrai examine the contrast between CHI with Toewes and Kane and PIT with Crosby and Malkin. One remained a contender, the other was done from that point forward. I don’t consider 13.5 x 8 value, and anything beyond that I think you can do better in (painful, heart rending) trade. IF McDavid would even stick around without his ‘ride and die.’
They really need to have both players at the table discussing this. Even if McD isn’t up for another season yet.
I agree. Not taking the absolute maximum isn’t giving a value deal. If winning is a part of the equation. Leon also would not have the same numbers on a different team. He also gets floated by Connor in playing with him, and seeing lesser comp because of him. He also would be further from a Cup on another team
Playing on the Oilers right now should cost something for any player other than Connor who still drives the bus. Others have just done that. Under 13 would be value
Agree with this, 100%, at least not on an 8-year deal
Yup, I think those are each about right – maybe a bit more for McDavid in the $15.5MM range.
So much for their claim after the offer sheets that they were going to stop reporting rumours and focus on youth hockey. I guess the clicks went into decline. 🥸
Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame:
At 2:05pm former Blue Jay Danny Jansen will become the first player in MLB history to play for both teams in the same game!
With the resumption of a game which was suspended on June 26 in the top of the second during Jansen’s at bat, he will enter the game as the catcher behind his own pinch hitter! It’s a strange day for the MLB record books.
When i was a kid back in the 60s, my family had a book titled So You Think You Know Baseball which had 96 brain teasers that created a weird situation (using real name ball players of the day, which was fun) posed a riddle about the rules, then gave the answer at the back of the book.
One of them created a situation where the same pitcher got credit for winning & losing the same game. It was fantastical of course, but theoretically possible. Involved a power failure between half-innings in a tie game (0-0 midway in the 9th, natch) while he was the pitcher of record, a trade, & then he came on in relief for his erstwhile opponents only to give up a walk-off homer.
nothing quite that dramatic here, but amazing that it took another 60ish years for any aspect of that scenario to arise IRL where a player at any position appears for both teams in a game.
The closest hockey has come is likely when Matt Duchene was traded mid game by Colorado to Ottawa.
Duchene was pulled from the game but flew with the Avalanche to Sweden where they then played the Senators twice.
https://youtube.com/shorts/1koKQ2UzbCc?si=XhM4OYiL0D1ztW0D
Can you imagine Ohtani striking out Ohtani, it’s possible.
This is weird I just would have assumed until now you can’t add a player to a game day roster after the first pitch has been thrown, even if that game day turns into multiple days. I guess my question is: had this happened for a rain delay and they played the next day, would he still be able to suit up?
I’m excited for Savoie just like everyone but found Pronmans take (Athletic article) quite interesting. He seems a tad less enthused suggesting that the NHL is a little less high on him than they were when he was initially drafted. I confess that I do not follow scouting in any level of detail, but I’m curious lowetide for your take on pronman’s views versus your own and those of more knowledgeable people in the oilogosphere
Elite Prospects shares that lack of enthusiasm.
In their latest top 100 rankings, they have Savoie at 74 down from 41 a year earlier.
If Savioe was 6’2 posting that offense he’d be way up the list. But that he is small and getting injuries makes it harder to project him producing in the NHL, he will have to prove what he is
He’s at least bigger than Yamamoto at 5″9′ 180 lbs. and he’s slightly bigger than Cole Caufield who is listed at 5″8″ 175 lbs. Not only that but they both play RW and will wear the same #22.
Savoie is aggressive like Yam and always around the puck, so he pisses many players off. Injury is the concern.
Nobody was ever concerned about Yamamoto getting injured at 5″6′ 156 lbs.
I was the day they drafted him. There’s a reason there are like 2 players that weight
Huh?
True but there aren’t many players that small in the league. I did a quick look a while back and it is about 6%
Given he will be 21 this season and hasn’t yet made it I can see why he is getting faded. And injuries. Usually high skill players do early and that is his path to the NHL. Doesn’t mean he won’t
I only hope Savoie can be as impactful as Caufield. That’s the comparison I’m looking at.
I was always concerned for Yamamoto’s life.
If he makes it I think he will be a better player. Caulfield will score more probably, but he’s a pretty one dimensional player. Scoring is only a part of it. Outscoring is the key as we know well enough
This is his first pro season.
He wasn’t even eligible to play in the AHL last season.
Did you expect him to be in the NHL at 19?
No, I was referring to that skill players arrive early. It could be affecting how those that rank things see him
Didn’t he play some games in the AHL last season? Caufield is 23 and this will be his fifth season.
Yes, he played 6 games near the beginning of last season on a conditioning loan before he was returned to junior.
It will be Caufield’s 4th NHL season.
I was including his first year of pro were he played 10 games with Montreal.
Those games were played after his 2nd college season ended (draft +2). Equivalent to Savoie this past spring.
And Caufield will be 24 this season by Scungili’s math (Savoie and Caufield both have early January birthdays)
Yes, I know you did – he played a full college season that year, i don’t count those 10 games at “an NHL season”.
Gonna need Savoie to have a great season so we can trade him to plug that gaping RHD hole
I don’t see how they can get an established player other than a rental, and that would be a big price given the lack of close forward youth they need for cap relief next season unless they have concerns that come up about him
Unless Nurse or Ekholm moves they shouldn’t pay another higher salary on D until Ekholm’s contract expires
I agree and I have him a smidge over a point per game. I think that a Logan Stankoven type 20 year old season is a reasonable bet.
Also, if I’m not mistaken, this was at the beginning of the season, when he was still 19 and got a few games at the AHL level after being hurt in training camp – se he did that as a 19 year old, coming off an injury and missing camp – that’s an accomplishment.
He scored for Moose Jaw at about the same rate as Jagger Firkus (and much lower in the playoffs). He was also behind Brayden Yager and Denton Mateychuk in the playoffs.
Would we expect Firkus to score about a PPG in the AHL?
The 6-game trial is promising, to be sure. But I wonder if we should keep our expectations reasonable.
Savoie’s teammate Zach Benson made the Sabres at 18 and Savoie failed to do so at 19. Perhaps others have been driving the bus for Savoie? I hope not, but it seems possible.
I think Firkus weights about as much as Yamo did coming out of junior. Savoie has 20 pounds on him and gives up two inches – a much stalkier build that should be able to handle the AHL better as a rookie than Firkus.
I don’t think a PPG for this prospect, a top 10 picks and prolific junior scorer, is unreasonable.
Benson made it because Savoie was hurt at the start if the year, Sabres brass said he would have made it if not for the injury. CHL rules kept him down.
Did Holland really slow play Holloway and Broberg? Two consecutive coaches did not give either player material ice time when they were on the NHL roster. In the case of Broberg, it resulted in him getting sent to the AHL.
The proof is in the offersheets, where the option value of the players skyrocketed. The market says they were slowplayed.
You missed the point. This wasn’t a case of a GM slow-playing the players. It was the coaches who didn’t see enough in practice/game time to offer more playing time.
And St Louis overpaid for these prospects. The option value is not representative of the actual contributions at this point in their careers. ‘Potential’ has been paid in full.
It wasn’t the GM who kept getting hurt at inopportune time, that was Broberg + Holloway. They got hurt each yr each time when they were progressing. That and that alone is what set them back. Oilers had no reason to slow play as their cheap contracts wld have helped them with not only the cap but saved assets used to go out and shore up the positions they couldn’t grab a hold of
Dylan had ample opportunity to prove himself. And when he played in the top 6, he was a defensive liability. He should of been way more aware of the defensive side of things. On top of that he had numerous injuries that held him back. If he was slow played he only had himself to blame.
Apparently, Pod isn’t a defensive liability.
The offer sheets don’t prove that these players were slow played, no matter how much you yell this from your soap box.
Armstrong is a fool. He was desperate, why didn’t he sign the already established RFA out there for more $$ and longer term? Seider, Raymond, Swayman, Seth Jarvis, Necas etc??? He has to HOPE Broberg/Holloway come close to those players, but even then he will have to offer the top $$ the others are asking for now. He put the Blues in the toilet with bad bad trades and overpriced contracts for mediocre defence man like Scandella, Krug, Leddy, Faulk., and fwds Saad, Kaapanen, schenn. And in the process let a young stud defence man like Pieterangelo leave for no assets as a free agent. Their Stanley cup winning captain and warrior, who was still 29 yrs old and wld have taken less to resign with Blue ($7.5-7.7). He’s put his team in cap hell and had to unload a 2nd to get rid of K Hayes, then a 3rd to get that pick back. so in essence for Broberg + Holloway its cost him two 2nds, three 3rds, plus young d prospect Paul Fischer. all for the privilege of overpaying bro + Holl. He’s fortunate Krug going to LTIR. But Blues will be mediocre for yrs with not much room to get better
Offer sheets do seem to be primarily driven by desperation. Revenge being the other motive.
The problem with offer sheets to guys like Seider etc. is that they will always be matched or the compensation outweighs the acquisition. Once you get into giving up multiple firsts – and desperate GM’s are usually picking in the first half of the round – there is more of a judgement call whereas going after Broberg & Holloway really cost the Blues very little.
More of a sure thing for sure.
The implied vol and the theta for these two year options that St. Louis bought were through the roof.
The offer sheets in now way resembled anything close to the market.
I have replied to your posts regarding Holloway not being slow played multiple times with substance based opinions – you’ve yet to respond on how you think he was slow-played – simply citing a consequence with no link to causation.
I swear it was only a few weeks ago Holland was being commended for not rushing prospects like his predecessors and I was reading how they were arriving on time ready to help the team win games rather than costing them points.
Did something happen to switch the narrative?
Unless Lavoie surprises not 1 player from a Holland draft (5years) will be on the roster. How is that possible? The first thing Jackson did when he took over for the lame duck Holland was fire Wright.
Anybody who has ever worked in politics knows that the best lies are the ones where everything you say is true while not saying any of the things that make the narrative they are peddling lacking any semblance of honesty.
Is that what you were going for here? 😇
If the season didn’t take a epic turnaround last season how are we discussing Holland 5 years at the helm. Holland was the boss so he gets the credit for reaching game 7. Honest question do you think it was a conservative Holland that fired and replaced Woody so quickly 2-9-1 with a unknown in K.K and OBC Coffey. Why would Holland fire his man Wright shortly after Jackson arrived?
Just as I responded (in great detail) when you posted this yesterday, that statement is true but also lacks context as there are draft picks from Holland’s time used as currency for current roster players.
As always. Holland himself qualified his thoughts on AHL time. He didn’t want to rush players before they were confident enough (that of course also depends on the personality) and said in Detroit the issue was how good the team was. He said if he had a spot guys would have been used sooner
As mentioned by others the injuries complicated time lines. And Holland being averse to risk, decided veterans would be more reliable, which they weren’t in many cases. His decisions and grinding young players because they were the only ones he seemed able to ended up costing both players
Kulak should have been traded last summer. Of course here on this site every time one of us proposed doing that we were told that the ‘depth’ was more important than the return.
It was not my intention to whitewash the mistakes made that led to the offer sheets so much as to comment that the narrative turned on a dime.
What was a strength two weeks ago – ripening and grinding – were suddenly serious flaws. Its a little fickle imo.
Yes it did as always. Human nature I suppose
I agree Kulak despite being a good player had to go. Ceci too because it wasn’t working and there was enough track to know that. The cap means sometimes you have to do things you rather wouldn’t. Shouldn’t be the youth ideally
Yup. That was my position last off season. Both should have been moved. Kulak because of cap and Broberg and Ceci because it wasn’t working – because they made each other worse rather than better as a pairing should when it is working.
Ceci was trickier because there had to be an alternative and there wasn’t one in house but Kulak for sure.
GMs other than Holland can fill holes. It’s not that hard. Jackson did more in a day than he could in 5 years to fix top 6 wingers. Edmonton has been a player destination for years now according to Johansen or however you spell it. Because Connor
Skinner for 1 year and Arvidsson for two years is more than Hyman and Kane?
THAT is where the GM slow play comes in. Ken could’ve moved either Ceci or Kulak and hit reshuffle.
Now that the Oilers are the oldest team around it may have changed attitudes slightly.
Holloway was not slow-played in the lease.
Holloway was given every opportunity to be an impactful every day forward on the Oilers and every opportunity to be a top 6 player.
Holloways’ moves down, and even out, of the lineup were in merit.
Broberg mainly wasn’t given the minutes because Holland built an incredible wall in front of him.
In addition to Nurse, while Broberg was making his way towards the NHL, Holland acquired Kulak and signed him for four years and acquired Ekholm who was already signed to a long term deal through 2025/26.
Of course a coach is not going play a prospect ahead of those three while in a cup contending window.
Prior to Ekholm being acquired, Woodcroft played Broberg nightly for 2 months, in a 6D set-up getting apx 14 minutes per night – he was doing very well – then Vinny and Ekholm were brought up and in by the manager.