Phil Kemp, like all players of his type, has several possible outcomes for his NHL career. He is currently in the “Chris Hajt” family of shutdown types, with one game (Hajt played six NHL games in his career) but could graduate to the “Scott Ferguson” group (he played 218 games in the world’s best league.
PHIL KEMP
What do you like about Kemp? He’s a player with ability. Last season, his 58 percent goal share at even strength with the Bakersfield Condors was the best on the team among regulars.
Does that mean he’ll have an NHL career? No guarantees. Kemp was 24 last season, 58 percent even strength goal share. He is 6.03, 202 and plays a rugged game.
When did Vincent Desharnais have his breakout game? In 2021-22, he was 25. Desharnais is a giant (6.07, 226) so the skating was less of an issue due to his length. He also had a more impressive breakout season, with a 66 percent even strength goal differential. So they are somewhat similar, but Desharnais was truly unique so a direct comparison isn’t possible. Kemp doesn’t have the same length.
You’ve been overrating these shutdown types forever! That isn’t true. Since starting the Lowetide Top 20 (twice a year) the only shutdown types who ranked inside the top five were Matt Greene and Max Wanner.
How high did Greene get? He was No. 5 in the summer of 2005. He was the top defenseman in the system at that time, ahead of Doug Lynch and Jeff Woywitka. Max Wanner is currently No. 4 but is not the top defenseman in the system.
What would have to happen for Kemp to play 40 games this coming season? A major injury at the NHL level and Kemp arriving in camp and establishing himself as a strong recall option.
Who is his competition? Right Defense appears to be Evan Bouchard, Troy Stecher, Ty Emberson and Joshua Brown at this time. There will be PTOs, we don’t know if a RHD will be added. Among the AHL blue, I give Kemp the edge over Wanner and Connor Carrick, plus lefty defenders who sometimes play RH side like Ben Gleason. So he’s not far from the show.
Why did Kris Knoblauch play him at forward? He didn’t know him. Coaches are risk averse, especially with unproven players. Doesn’t mean a thing. Kemp shows up in camp ripped and ready, Knoblauch will be about him.
https://puckpedia.com/deferred
Deferred money contract calculator.
I put in $112 M over 8 years ($14M AAV) and then I deferred $8M each year by an 8 year margin. So basically:
Year1 $6M paid, $8M deferred until 9th year
Year2 $6M paid, $8M deferred until 10th year
and so on until:
Year8 $6M paid, $8M deferred to 16th year
Cap hit drops to $11.225M/yr AAV
You’re hired!
Staples on the Holloway interview.
“4. Should Edmonton have tied up Holloway and Broberg before the July 1 free agency period? Should Edmonton have refrained signing up so many veterans and instead paved the way to new Holloway and Broberg with higher offers before the free agency spending spree, maybe well before it in January or February, when both players were in the minors and in weaker negotiating positions? These are fair questions to ask.”
Protecting assets with contract extensions is what a normal, functioning franchise does. Extending young players doesn’t in any way prevent the acquisition of free agents. This was simply a case of not protecting assets.
A contract needs both sides to agree. If I were Holloway and Broberg’s agents, I wouldn’t have negotiated during that timeframe. Why would they enter negotiations in their weakest position?
To say they should’ve just been signed then is disingenuous.
No it isn’t. The team was in a position of power, they could have extended both. Young players will sign extensions if a fair deal and opportunity is offered. 99.9% of the time. They definitely didn’t protect their assets.
Dylan would have signed a contract at a reasonable value before the playoffs. But wasn’t presented with the opportunity. It’s the fact that he wasn’t even presented the opportunity that we should be furious about.
There’s nothing disingenuous in my statement. Based on Holloway’s interview, Oilers management didn’t even try to sign him before the playoffs. Holloway says he wanted to sign with EDM. He wasn’t presented the opportunity to do so before he was presented the offer sheet. That’s terrible asset management.
The assets were unwilling to sign the Oilers’ offer, apparently on the advice of their agent.
Watch the interview. Holloway really wanted to sign with Edmonton. He was presented the offer sheet before the Oilers started negotiating. Someone made a big mistake here.
“The assets were unwilling to sign the Oilers’ offer, apparently on the advice of their agent.”
There was no offer from Edmonton until AFTER the offer sheet. That’s the problem.
I was as personally invested as any fan with no personal connection to these players. I spent a lot of time and a bit of money to watch these players outside of the NHL before and after their NHL debuts. It absolutely gutted me to see them walk.
I had counted on them being Oilers for the better part of the next decade, because they are very good and because they will be needed.
That being said, I get both sides. The Oilers are in win-now mode and have to deal with the salary cap hand-cuffs. Previous GM’s caused this situation, not Holloway or Broberg, nor did current Management.
Management held all the cards and decided to go with the here and now and to deal with the repercussions later.
Both players have personally seen first-hand how quickly careers can end. I know as a fact that both went through periods where they had thoughts that they would never play again.
These often lengthy and frustrating time periods that you are dealing with recovery from injury are extremely lonely and terrifying at times. It only takes one play to end the dream. No matter how hard you work to be the best possible player you can be, your body can fail you.
As a 20 year CF vet, I am still dealing with the impacts of an an injury I suffered about 30 years ago during the prime years of my life. Suffice it to say, Oscar Klefbom’s injury resonates with me.
Ultimately, Broberg and Holloway were handed contracts with life-changing money. I have had an excellent income for about a decade now as I approach my retirement years. My lifetime income (which I have calculated on a spreadsheet) does not yet match one season of Holloway’s new deal.
I will always be a fan of both players and I don’t begrudge either one teeny eeny bit. Anyone who does, IMO, is as selfish as what they seem to think these 2 young hockey players are.
This has nothing to do with disloyalty (I went through something like this when I chose to make a career change in the military), the only people they owe is their parents/family and themselves.
Besides, they are not critical to the success of the Oilers this season. The Oilers will win the Cup without them. This is their loss and no one else’s. Their agents get an A+ from me, they orchestrated this 100%.
Godspeed young men, I wish you both nothing but health and happiness in your futures.
I’m not upset with Broberg or Holloway signing the offer sheets. I’m not upset that the Oilers didn’t match (I was against matching). I’m not upset the Oilers didn’t extend Broberg and Holloway before the playoffs.
I’m upset that Oilers management didn’t start negotiations with Holloway (and likely Broberg) before the playoffs. Thats dumb.
Holloway quote from ON:
If what Holloway is saying is accurate, it is weird. And Staples is wrong in his article to say that it’s not. I think Staples missed out on some of the intricacies here.
Mazzei then writes:
Holloway would not have know about the offer sheet “early in the season.” That would be a violation of Edmonton’s rights. He would have found out about the offer sheet after free agency. This means that Edmonton didn’t pursue extension with Holloway until after free agency. That’s bad asset management. Period.
I will say also, if Bouchard doesn’t extend before the playoffs, be prepared. Bowman is having difficulty with the Draisaitl extension. You CAN NOT let Bouchard get to the free agency deadline without an extension. You need a happy Bouchard going into the playoffs with a big fat contract extension. I would think that there are a number of teams that will gladly jump at $11M+ for Bouchard and the picks, even if four first round picks, still do not equal the value of the player.
There is no substantive indication that “Bowman is having trouble with the Draisaitl extension”.
Okay, I had attempted to fix the issue of people having the menu block their screen.
I wasn’t having that issue myself, but had noticed it when I tilt my iPhone horizontally.
I had thought the issue was resolved. But it seems that it’s worse for some?
Thanks for trying, Ryan.
This new obtrusive banner on the left contains all the links that used to be in a thin banner at the top of all Lowetide pages. As an added annoyance, it has displaced all the links on the right side of the page, including “recent comments”, to the bottom of the page.
I hope you can find a solution.
Okay, I’ve changed it back.
Thank you!
Everything is back as it was… at least for me. 🙂
Hi Louise!
Hi L.
Haven’t seen you around here in forever – if ever. Hope this isn’t a one time thing.
Thanks… I will try to pop in.
Still having the problem on my Chromebook, using Google Chrome.
Just appeared this morning. I am on firefox and duckduckgo on a MacBookAir if that helps.
Fixed. Thank you.
on my iPhone the menu tab on the left blocked things when I spun my phone yesterday. All good today
I lied – now it’s blocking text when I spin the iPhone. Hope this helps.
thanks for working on this!
Back to normal on this end.
Many thanks for your fine work here.
Damn. Earlier the side panel was gone … now, it’s back. Damn.
And as best as I can tell there is no longer a link to “profile”.
Fair.
Profile link is in the dashboard.
Top left beside the WordPress Icon.
I think it was still there above the banner from hell before Ryan fixed it for some of us.
I may have got to it through the login, though.
There is no WordPress icon, it is gone.
Sorry… try the login link.
It’s on the banner.
You have to login again.
Serious question: is the only substantial reason for a difference in expectations this upcoming season between Broberg and Emberson draft pedigree?
What in their recent history would suggest Broberg should have higher expectations this season?
Draft-pedigree, NHL experience, athleticism, history of point production, size, skating ability, just generally Broberg is viewed as a more dynamic player.
Broberg – 8th
Emberson – 73rd
Broberg – 81 games over 3 seasons
Emberson – 30 games in one season
I have no idea how you are measuring athleticism.
Broberg – 13 points NHL
Emberson – 10 points NHL
Broberg – 6’4″ – 212 lbs
Emberson – 6’2″ – 193 lbs
Do we really know anything about Emberson’s skating ability?
Broberg – shoots left
Emberson – shoots right
Emberson is a year older than Broberg.
I say we wait for TC before making any definitive judgments.
Emberson might be better on his natural side than Broberg is on his un-natural side.
I’m sure Coffey had a large part in wether Broberg should stay. If Coffey thinks the 4.7 million for a RD can be better spent more efficiently than Broberg I’ll side with Coffey
I would presume Coffey wanted the org to keep the player but, while he has a voice, its not the one that makes the final decisions.
Yes its not the player it’s the cap hit for the next 2 years for a unknown.
LT’s piece at The Athletic details a number of reports on his skating.
He’s slightly above NHL average for skating, so much better than Vinny and slightly better than Ceci.
What’s this based on?
Is it a purely qualitative assessment? I ask because the NHL Edge numbers do not appear to support that conclusion.
I’ve deployed eye test.
Emberson was in good position most of the time he was on ice, rarely did he have to race anyone and if he did, the runway was much shorter, whereas I recall several times Vinny or Cecii had to chase someone who was open on a breakaway, etc.
All will come into view when the games are played.
Thanks for clarifying. Yes, we will get a much better sense as we watch him play more.
No. Ceci for Emberson was almost certainly happening anyways.
The difference in expectations is Broberg AND Emberson, and Emberson alone.
Curlock with a look at Petrov
https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-prospect-countdown-10-matvei-petrov
Given his size and seemingly decent skating and that shot, they have to give this kid the right spot. I have been wondering why with his skill set he’s not doing better, natural scorer. Plays hard, seems smart
“In addition to this fact, Petrov was a victim of a troublesome element to the Edmonton Oilers’ development history — the development of offensively gifted forwards who are not first-round players. Check the record. It is poor beyond belief. Petrov’s year with Bakersfield was a textbook illustration of what has occurred for years.”
So, consensus is that this hasn’t changed under Jackson? I guess this is for Kalle Larsson to fix. I can think of more than one first rounder who have fallen into a similar trap.
Exactly why Larsson was hired. It will change now that Holland has moved on. Lavoie Petrov Savoie as skill players and Philp as a role player need to be playing key minutes, they all have NHL qualities and are next up if they can do their part and are given a chance to develop properly
Also Curlock mentioned Petrov is a two way player. No need to groom him to be a checker or make him pay his dues or whatever. If he’s middle 6 on the Oilers, make sure it’s a skill line still that can play two ways. Let them play their games
Lavoie Savoie and Philp should be ready by next season one would think or sooner, Petrov probably a bit more time
Not to nitpick but if Lavoie isn’t ready this year I doubt he’s any better next year. Perhaps you mean this as his transition year and he’ll be full time next season. It would sure help if he could comfortably check a box for the next few years
I am not sure what they see with him. Another problem is they are loaded up with full time NHL players
Maybe guys would sign and be willing to go down, but from everything I’ve read that’s not how established older players go, I think the ‘opening’ roster is pretty set. Them trading Ceci confirms that for me, I think he was going regardless, they were on cottage time and not getting on it, again. No team carries 8 regular NHL D if none are aging out or already going up and down
If Lavoie came up unless he took someone’s job he’d be an extra and they would not accrue cap. No point in that. If he did take a job because I don’t see them demoting anyone maybe they do a trade. Perry is there for leadership, especially playoffs. Ryan is the only RS C, Philip an unknown, they and we love Janmark, not sure who goes
I see this as his make or break year in the A with the Oilers. There may be spots next season. I think he will play NHL games but maybe elsewhere
If Kane is not in the lineup, there is a 3LW job waiting for the taking.
If Lavoie isn’t able to win that job at camp…… or at least win the crack at it for game 1.
Pod or Jan is getting that gig. Maybe Ralph takes it but unlikely lacking experience
I see Jamark as 4LW and 3LW should be higher offensive pedigree’d payer that can learn from an experience 2-way vet like Henrique.
With Kane out (presumed), there is room for both Podz and Lavoie – neither Ryan nor Perry should play nightly.
I think Podkolzin will come flying out of the gate he’ll hit, he’ll scrap, he’ll score, his way to a job. A change of scenery and a new boss is sometimes all it takes. Lavoie ship has sailed in E-town maybe he’ll impress Staios enough to get picked off waivers.
Staios did’nt want him for free a year ago….
An exceptional analysis of the “Tulsky”
https://canucksarmy.com/news/deferred-salary-uh-oh-nhl-contracts-just-got-a-bit-more-complicated
You have to wonder if we will see this on super high profile contracts. It’s clearly not of financial benefit to the player who loses a lot in interest and opportunity with their money. The benefit today seems to be in the max region of 1M to the team. That can add up over several players. For the Oilers it could be 2M-3M of cap between Draisaitl, Bouchard and McDavid. That’s enough cap to pay for the next goaltender buyout. The part that’s crazy to me is using todays interest rate to project a value 8 years from now. Imagine going to the bank and requesting an 8 year fixed mortgage. Enjoy your Libor Day long weekend everyone.
I am not a CBA guy.
This is where things hinge.
Initially, I thought the money could be put in an escrow account while allowing it to accrue interest. No-brainer for the player.
Then I thought i had read something that if they do this, they lose the NPV adjustment and cap advantage.
If that’s the case, the utility of these contracts is diminished since the player getting their bonus delayed is just accepting less actual money.
My question is more prosaic.
If the deferred money is paid in the 9th year does that mean it comes off the cap for the team at that time?
It does not hit the cap after the term of the contract even if paid after the term of the contract.
Thanks. Why would that be?
Its really a SOFR day long weekend as Libor doesn’t existing any longer.
It MAY be of benefit to the player if he can negotiate a higher contract if some of it is deferred.
A while ago I put up a few numbers of 80’s Oilers D to see what type of players Sather wanted. They got quite a few points, mostly assists except Coffey who was genius. Given the way that team could score, if you could make a good pass the points came for the D, as opposed to them being that ‘offensive’. But they were mostly mean, sometimes big, and defended like crazy
Bruce may correct me here
I am comfortable if the D they use moving forward aren’t going to get more than average points for the role outside of the top 3 or even maybe top 2 D
The most important thing to me is to build a D group that is hard to score on and hard to play against (good at controlling both blue lines, mean around the net and in the corners). To me that is based on the player’s nature, and also the ability to execute defensive play at a high level. Also having enough pace and ability to make clean passes so the puck is out and gets up the ice
To me almost all good NHL hockey is based on IQ and skating, and wanting to win every play, every interaction on the ice. I like that Fischer is supposed to be good at moving in all directions, Emberson as well, both defend hard. That means players can’t easily get away from them, no time and space, which to me remains an issue at times
Emberson is also supposed to be fairly physical even if not heavy for a NHL D. That could be why he ran into injury trouble last season. Wanner sounds ideal, a rounded player that likes the hard game, has size and skates pretty well, I hope he keeps developing – he’s my young Oiler D prototype outside of Bouch. Give me Bouch and another more skilled D, and a Gator, Huddy, Lowe, Fogolin, etc. Move the puck, kick some butt
Playing with these forwards some assists at least will come, if they do what Coffey says and get the forwards the puck cleanly, he should know. And really it’s the forwards that generate most offense and attack. Also, less D points means less expensive D, you can build and keep a group better
If they can get the whole group playing that style at a good level by usage, not just half the team, I think it will float all boats. I am hopeful better puck movement out of the bottom 2 pairs will help bottom 6 numbers
Reijo Routsalainen being added for two cup runs was a notable exception. Agree overall though that Sather’s Dcorps were mostly bigger/tougher.
If they don’t add a RD via trade or PTO. I actually think Kemp has a good chance to break camp as an NHLer.
Brown at 3 years X $1 million is ticketed for the Minors. He got that deal so no one claims him. He is a recall option, safe from waivers and makes $ 1 million, so no one will eat that.
Kemp, if he impresses in camp, I bet starts in the NHL. The $200+ k difference between him and Brown matters cap wise.
Could be. It will be a battle. Brown has the wildcard of being huge and tough, I’ve read he isn’t a bad skater (we’ll see) which might play into decisions given the way the roster is this coming season
The only reasonable explanation for the 3-year term on Brown is to lower the risk of waiver claim – well the only reasonable one that I can think of.
As of right now, Brown would be 7D but Kemp at 8D and, if there was an injury heading in to the season, I suspect it would be Brown it.
At the same time, I truly hope that Kemp gets a real opportunity to “win that job”.
A near decade pro history has established that Josh Brown’s best skill is face punching and he’s replacement level at best at the NHL level. He’s big and tough but he hasn’t proven to be a good defender in a depth role. He was healthy scratched on a meh Zona defensive group.
I don’t know that Kemp can skate well enough to defend at the NHL level but I don’t know that he can’t. I am confident, from watching him play and develop as a pro, that, if he can pivot and edge well enough to defend the rush and the shifty forwards in the o-zone cycle game, that he could be a solid 3RD and a great stop gap (at least) to Max Wanner.
Kemp is so very positionally sound, something this defensive group has lacked. He isn’t Adam Larsson dirty but he’s hard to play against, he’ll defend his teammates with no hesitation, he’s got a good shot and is a sneaky good passer.
The issue is skating and using his skills at the pace of the NHL game – it may not translate, but it also may.
Unfortunately, not unlike Broberg who was blocked with vets brought in on the left side, Kemp is blocked by vets brought in on the right side (although more “passable on the depth chart” that the lefties Broberg had to deal with.
If Wanner moves the needle in Bakersfield when should he recieve a look see. Remember Holland is gone prospects may now recieve motivation confidence-money wise with deserved cups of coffee.
He’s pretty young, just turned 21. I think Kemp should be first. Max is still raw
If Brown or Stecher is down there maybe no other recalls depending on injury
If they are really cruising maybe they can give a few guys some NHL time. But it’s harder when you are a top team and trying to get better seeding
Also everything is new, I have no idea how they will operate. Last season was in limbo with Holland still there and JJ showing some respect
I cleared my cache but still have that grey banner taking up 2/5 of the page (on the left).
Any other ideas to get rid of it?
Try putting your left hand over it
I legit snorted. Well played.
I just realized mine went away. Didn’t do anything to try to get rid of it.
It seems to have been fixed on my windows laptop, using Firefox. Now there is a small triangular button top left, that opens & closes the panel… nice fix!
However… on my galaxy pad, using Chrome, that very problematic panel has now appeared, wasn’t there yesterday.
I zoomed my Firefox to 170% to be able to get the triangular button to get rid of it.
I zoomed to 400% and still never found a triangular button. Any other ideas?
Google is angry at the reduced reale state for pickup truck and blue pill adds. No, not that blue pill. Yes, that one.
Not sure if this was mentioned already, but Shane Lachance has been named a co-captain for BU this season.
First time in BU history a sophomore gets to wear a C.
Isn’t a co-captain an assistant captain wearing an A.
Weird that they would have two players wearing the C.
Yes, this was mentioned a few weeks back but, of course, not everyone reads every post every day so no issues with re-freshing.
The first sophomore in Terrier history to be captain.
He’s got deep ties with the program, his mother’s father was the BU Head Coach for 40 years, 47 as a player and an assist coach.
His father also attended BU.
LaChance is Terrier royalty…
Maybe they could trade Kemp to the Leafs for Nick Robertson.
They could but
I doubt he wants to go to the A
If they want to accrue cap they can’t carry any more NHL players
They have a more productive small forward very close and one more is enough for me
They need more assertive players
I don’t like his size either. But he might be good enough to make the team. If not, then yeah, he’d be playing in the AHL. Possible call up material same as Phil Kemp. But he’s an actual forward, not a defenseman playing forward.
I mentioned weeks ago that other players would treat Holloway and Broberg accordingly once the details of the situation were learned.
We now hear Holloway was sitting at the negotiating table with offer sheet disclosed and pen in hand for the Oilers contract.
Then nobody showed up.
Sounds like a gap between Holland, Bowman, Jackson.
A signal you are low priority, you are worried about wrist injury, you have job and salary certainty with another team. Makes things understandable to me.
Holland was no longer part of the organization at that point though.
Holloway was ready to sign the offer sheet? I did not know that.
Maybe Holloway agent accidentally dialed the wrong phone number.
Maybe he borrowed woodguy’s phone?
🤷♂️
Isn’t it a common negotiation tactic by Holloway’s agent to use the offer sheet to try to use that leverage to get a better contract for his client. Oilers weren’t in a position to up their offer. C’est la vie.
Holloway reminds me of Pitlick who l liked but injuries derailed his career. Pitlick career high was 14 it’ll be interesting for me to see if Holloway can consistently bring the high octane enough to become a staple on the Blues top 9 or better.
The mistakes were made long before this early summer. And it was dithering. Doesn’t seem to matter the GM, they take too long to decide on their young players and it leads to RFA issues, Nurse for example
Holland also liked to lean on players coming out of ELCs and couldn’t get his head around how to use the cap efficiently, given the nature of his team
Done deal. Hopefully these managers are better
Would not the correct play have been to move Kulak and sign Broberg to a 3-4 year bridge deal?
Or, if the confidence in his upside was significant, try and go for a max term deal at a discount.
Rather than squeezing their RFAs coming out of ELCs, many teams are now signing them to longer terms.
With Broberg lost for pocket lint, the cost of replacing Klefbom is astronomical.
To my way of thinking yes. Kulak is a good 3rd pair, but there is a cap and young players coming. The Oilers have been behind things on young players for years, need to be ahead of it to be in a position of control
Either make room or trade him, but with how things went I’m not sure how much value he had. On the other hand, I doubt it was the playoffs that had attention on him. His stats were not great, every team has analytics now. I think it was likely being seen as the best or one of the best D in the A last season, his age (not 18-19) and the size skill and skating
At the least they could have got a blue chip prospect for him
Larsson gutted them. I don’t think Holland seen it coming. A kelfbom-Larsson tandem would of been dominant for 7-10 years
Not exactly pocket lint.
Did Holloway also not disclose that his wrist is “not ideal”?
1 slash away from potential game over. The new style gloves the players wear now have almost no cuff/wrist cover.
Perhaps the risk of further injury played somewhat of a factor in this whole decision for the Oilers, maybe I’m looking at it wrong too.
The Oilers have Holloway’s complete medical records.
His injury was a fractured scaphoid, the “hollow” bone at the base pf the thumb & a very problematic area which has poor blood supply among other issues. Holloway needed two surgeries several months apart, suggesting complications from the get go. I always wondered if it affected his shot among other things.
How much strength do you lose on your wrist shot. You would have to think it affects his stick handling ability as well. I do wonder if this player didn’t have this nasty injury for a forward where he would be at in his career. The fact that they’re still talking about this injury for me means it hasn’t healed ideally and it won’t.
In the recent interview Holloway says that the broken Scaphoid doesn’t affect his shot, as it’s on his left hand. But that it does affect his everyday life and that he can’t do push-ups, because he can’t bend his wrist 90 degrees. Agent is not gonna not be pleased with that interview I think. A little TMI.
Don’t you actually use your forearm more than your wrist when making a wrist shot, keeping the wrist firm as you shoot. The forearm is much stronger than the wrist.
A lot of D-men spend years on the farm with all the same abilities some eventually get opportunities from their organizations some don’t.
Opportunity knocks young man. Arrive ready!