The Edmonton Oilers are finally at rest for the summer. This period of Oilers history has been explosive and thrilling, but the moments of inactivity give us a chance to ponder the days ahead. What has changed from this time last year? Damn near everything.
WHAT IS THE BIGGEST CHANGE YEAR OVER YEAR?
I was going to start with a long paragraph about the new head coach (Kris Knoblauch) but it’s really the entire staff, isn’t it? I don’t know who to credit really, but Paul Coffey and Mark Stuart are in charge of the defense and both men will be challenged with coaching up some newcomers in the days ahead.
I think the new Draisiatl wingers (Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson) are major attractions, and I do believe that second line will rattle and hum this season.
One my favourite teams (1970-72 Boston Bruins) boasted three distinct lines. The top line featured Phil Esposito, who could not be moved from the slot because he was strong and had size, Wayne Cashman who was an early version of Ryan Smyth with his ability to win battles and pass the puck, and Ken Hodge, who was a stylish winger with a quick release and passing skills. The second line featured playmaker Fred Stanfield, smooth skater Johnny Bucyk who had a nice range of skills, and Johnnny McKenzie, who was a fiesty small winger who could score, check and gut you as required.
I think this Oilers team has the potential to deliver the same kind of impact, with the understanding that scoring levels are different in this era. Cashman-Esposito-Hodge line scored 74 even-strength goals in 1971-72. Bucyk-Stanfield-McKenzie potted 49 and those two units stayed together pretty much all year.
Boston’s third line featured the mercurial Derek Sanderson, Mike Walton and Eddie Westfall, with Garnet Bailey thrown in when Walton was moving up the lineup. Walton-Sanderson-Westfall scored 56 goals, and Bailey added nine more.
Last season, Nuge-McDavid-Hyman scored 77 goals at even strength (obviously not together, but the three men reached that total together and apart, as was the case in Boston over 50 years ago. Kane-Draisaitl-Foegele hit 59 goals even strength.
Can this year’s version of the top two lines do better? I think they can.
The Oilers have made changes on defense, and I wonder if this group can manage stronger totals than last year. You know, at five-on-five, Ekholm-Bouchard went 78-45 goals, Nurse-Ceci were 45-40 and Kulak-Desharnais 22-21. Can this year’s group do better? Don’t know.
I’m expecting regression of the D this. Ceci, bro, and denariaris. And our youth speed gone with expressly McCloud gone. And I’m still bummed he’s gone.
To me, the proof in the pudding is with the way the team comes out of training camp.
I’m a big fan of what WoodMan accomplished. But their cardinal sin, to me, was the team not starting the season on the same page.
I’m thankful for the turnaround artistry displayed by Koffey & Co., but unless they can get everyone rowing in the same direction out of the gate, I will have a hard time trusting there’s something bonafide at hand.
A few too many questions about this team imo for one that is supposedly a contender – if not a favourite.
I feel like one forward signing should’ve been swapped for a Dman signing for better balance. This comes of course with the hindsight of losing Broberg, which clearly came as unexpected by the relevant parties.
As far as BIAGJ’s main thrust goes, I put that on the players, because the core has done that to all the coaches not just Manwood, they just got the worst version of it. Coaches get fired by this group. So we’ll see what hiccups happen this season. I’d like to think KK has complete buy-in after the season they just had and there’s no reason to think they won’t, other than history. Probably we’re good for at least a year. A goal away from winning the Grail deserves an extended honeymoon.
Curlock with a prospect piece on Wanner is up. I deeply hope he keeps spiking. Might be a Covid hidden gem. He is the droid we’re looking for. Love the look on his face in the pic, you can see he is no wall flower, and has some tools. A classic Oiler D, play some hockey, stay away from my net, or else
I see Skinner on the PP1 next year.
Skinner (left half wall)
Driasaitl (right half wall)
Hyman (net front)
McDavid (rover)
Bouchard (top of the diamond)
is more unstoppable than the 2023/24 PP1
You forgot the Nuge. Nuge is huge.
Last year teams wanted Nuge to shoot vs all the other options. Skinner is a significant scoring upgrade vs Nuge.
The PP has lots of shooters – McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, even Hyman if not parked in front of the net.. Not sure you need all 5 of them with a “shooting mentality” as opposed to a guy who can move the puck quickly to others in their preferred shooting area. Kane has never been able to move Nuge off the 1PP – not sure Skinner will either.
Not only was Nuge a significant contributor to the success of last year’s PP (and those prior), there is a consistent and notable drop in PP% when he’s out of the lineup.
He is a scoring upgrade at 5 on 5.
He is a downgrade as far as PP producer.
I would like to see this too. Also, I want to see PP2 get material playing time.
RNH
Arvy
Henrique
Kane/Savoie/Brown/Ek/whoever
Nurse
Not likely. Nuge is a staple on PP1.
Nuge on the wall makes wonderful plays to open up Connor when he swoops back up high to create movement. Or that backhand spin move pass to Bouchard he does to bait the winger high and free the point.
He’s not going anywhere.
Agreed, not a chance Nuge is dropped from PP1. He is a wizard and has always been a wizard, in terms of puck possession in phone booth sized areas and making the safe reliable pass. We kind of forget that because Connor is even better. It’s a rare skill we take for granted but you notice quickly when watching most other team’s PPs and how average their half wall players usually are with puck control.
Skinner has never been a powerplay producer – he’s an elite goal scorer at 5 on 5.
I see zero chance of him replacing Nuge on the PP without injury.
I can’t wait to see how the new group comes together. Here are some team numbers
Reg Season Even Strength 23/24
GF% 55
xGF% 57
HDGF% 57
HDSV% 80.25
HDSH% 18.9
PDO 1.002
Playoffs
GF% 50
xGF% 49
HDGF% 52
HDSV% 78.26
HDSH% 19.18
PDO .994
Stu had his issues in the Canucks series we know. But they also had trouble holding leads and scoring at evens in many games. They have the talent to score a lot when things go their way, and did a few times in playoffs, but there were still issues when that didn’t happen
The last three stats to me indicate that it wasn’t a luck thing – they didn’t change very much, and the HDSV% probably went down from Stu’s bad games. After LA it was a battle each series. The Stars series was tighter in play than 4-2 makes it look. I looked through the gamecentres and if Stu hadn’t gotten the better of Oettinger who fell off a cliff, I’m not sure they would have won that series. 10 SOG in the winner, and then going down 3-0 in the finals
So a lot of player movement, some by force. Hopefully they can get closer to what the potential is with the high end players they have in even strength play and defending, it was spotty again, the talent experience and enough luck got them further. But it can be better, they can be even more dominant I think. They should be able to handle most teams in playoffs pretty cleanly, hopefully they get there now
It’s going to be a long season for this relatively old team. Everyone needs to pray that injuries are low and McDavid, Drai and Bouchard aren’t too tired from dragging everyone to the post-season.
I hope they don’t have to this time, with the changes
To be fair, the Oilers played teams that were ranked 3rd, 4th, 5th ,and 8th in xGF% and 2nd, 3rd, 6th and 10th in GF% in the regular season.
They didn’t get to face a team that was even average 5v5. Other teams got to play Washington or Tampa for example.
Kurt Leavins pumping Philp up a bit this morning.
It would be a bonus for this team to have a real 4C drop out of nowhere (well, from outside most people’s expectations) to start the season rather than trying to duct tape together a fourth line that looks more like hodgepodge than a cohesive unit.
EDIT: I tried to include the link but the verbotten ‘K’ word was in it so it got rejected so . . .
“Will Noah Philp be able to pick up where he left off before leaving the game for a year? I hear Philp is in crackin’ good shape.”
Hit the dreaded purgatory for use of the ‘K’ word so re-posted.
I started watching the Heritage Classic last night, because it is one of a handful of games I still have on my PVR from last season. It was a great game for a struggling club with sky-high expectations. I think most of us thought this would be what would spark the team to get them back on track.
What was most interesting to me was roster construction. Here was the starting forward line-up:
McDavid-29-Foegele
Kane-Nuge-Hyman
Holloway-McLeod-Brown
Erne-Ryan
And it was an absolute blender throughout the course of the game.
That means 5 of these 11 are likely not be on the season opening starting line-up.
On D 4 of 7, and in net 1 of 2 remain. So compared to last season this team will most likely have 9 (45%) different players on the opening night roster compared that early season spectacle.
It goes to show that you never really know, even with the young core of Championship calibre teams, who will actually still be on the team for subsequent Stanley Cup pushes.
You’d expect that of all players the youth would stick around for at least one run, if not two…..
Jeff Skinner is tied for 13th in 5 on 5 goals over the last 3 seasons.
He’s tied with Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl (and two goals behind Ovi, Tkachuk, Point).
I don’t get the narrative that Skinner is weak on his all around game. Wow did we luck out the Sabres sure make some strange moves it’s not like Skinner is injury prone and he’s still young considering no playoff wear and tear in his career. If it’s a case of Ruff not liking the player so be it.
I think they want culture change, and having cap moved a long term guy that had only lost
Good for them, good for us hopefully
Skinner had 24 Goals last season I can’t find another player that was bought out with that many Goals the previous year of a buyout.
$9 million is way too much to pay for a 24 goal scorer.
It’s not like he fell of a cliff he went from 33G to 35G to 24G he could just of easily scored 30 plus for the Sabres this year than not. Why do I have a feeling his shooting percentage goes up over last years with Connor and Leon breast feeding him this coming year.
Mitch Marner $10.9M 26G
Alexander Barkov $10M 23G
Tyler Seguin $9.85M 25G
Matt Tkachuk $9.5M 26G
Jamie Benn $9.5M 21G
Mark Stone $9.5M 16G (23G/82GP pace)
Matt Barzal $9.15M 23G
All these guys are way overpaid too, I guess.
Marner 26 in only 69 games.
Barkov – Selke Trophy winner
Seguin 25 in only 68 games coming off serious injury
Tkachuk 88 points Skinner 46 points
Benn definitely overpaid but finishing retirement contract
Stone numerous injuries but almost a PPG in only 56 games
Barzal 80 points Skinner 46 points.
Hoglander 24 goals cap hit $1.1 million
Skinner is closer to Hoglander than he is to the others.
Nice try though.
Mark Messier 2000-01 NYR
24 Goals and 43 Assists
Played all 82 games.
6 Stanley Cups
NHL LEGEND
What a load of…..:
Jeff Skinner is tied for 13th in 5 on 5 goals over the last 3 seasons. He’s tied with Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl (and two goals behind Ovi, Tkachuk, Point).
Side note: Skinner was 50% or great in 5 on 5 goal share in each of those three seasons.
To bring this back to the Oilers, $3MM is NOT too much to pay and, also: Jeff Skinner is tied for 13th in 5 on 5 goals over the last 3 seasons. He’s tied with Nathan MacKinnon and Leon Draisaitl (and two goals behind Ovi, Tkachuk, Point).
Side note: Skinner was 50% or great in 5 on 5 goal share in each of those three seasons.
Their owner is a live wire. I think management is feeling the heat
Obviously handing the team over to their impressive prospect pool.
They have only one skater over the age of 30 and his contract has only one year left.
Notable that their entire top 4 D is under 25.
They must have a lot of pure goal scoring prospects if they can buyout a 25 goal scorer and trade another for McLeod. If I’m Jackson-Bowman I keep Adams and Grier glasses topped up all year.
They do.
Last season:
Tage Thompson
JJ Peterka
Alex Tuch
Rasmus Dahlin
Projected:
Jack Quinn
Zach Benson
Noah Ostlund
Jiri Kulich
Isak Rosen
Not all will make it but that’s a ton of kids needing to play.
Projections are to statistical analysis as sarcasm is to humour.
Only 75 of Skinner 357 career Goals are on the PP. I expected a higher percentage of PP Goals for a sniper like Skinner.
He’s been one of the best 5 on 5 scorers in the NHL over the last decade.
This is a good thing – 5 on 5 goal scoring is the hardest thing to do in the NHL.
”One of the most beautiful sounds in the world is a baseball game coming out of an AM radio on a warm summer night.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/10717649/future-of-am-radio/
Alan Cross is an underrated media personality and fountain of music knowledge.
And a very good writer.
I’ve mentioned before that I often listen to Vancouver Canadians games on the radio although I don’t follow the NW league at all and couldn’t name one player on the team.
Baseball on AM radio is very evocative of a simpler, more wholesome time and you can almost smell the hotdogs and popcorn wafting from the radio speaker.
The sounds of a pitch thumping the catchers mitt or the crack of the bat trigger a lot of nostalgia.
— yeah we were both commenting on him the other day. He really has “evolved” with the music in terms of generating content in different formats over the years: first at the Edge, on Air Canada, streaming. I wonder if he’s got audiences now outside of Canada
— Listening to Jays on the radio in the summer is something I’ve always done, even as a kid my best friends dad had it. Puttering around smoking a gar eating pistachios cold beers, sometimes working the bbq when night games. Cross nails this !
His piece reminded me of a game I took in at Dodger Stadium many years ago…..Sandy Koufax for the Dodgers…Juan Marichal for the Giants (1-0 final).
What I recall most vividly sitting a few rows up from the visitor bench was the amazing acuity of the roaming hotdog vendors. They would get payment by throwing a cut tennis ball to the customer and then fire the hotdog right into your hands. Never missed.
The players will be made available to the media at the informal skates tomorrow – first time we’ll here from some of the guys this season and, for some, ever. Looking forward to hearing what the likes of Arvidsson have to say.
I think they can too.
The gap with 71-72 Boston was really that 3rd line though. Tough to pin down an Oilers 3rd line from last year, but McLeod-Henrique/Holloway/Perry/Gagner scored 34 even strength goals (in considerably less than 3 x 82 games).
In addition to Draisaitl’s new wingers, I’m really curious to see what the new 3rd line looks like. Henrique all season. Maybe a rebound for Connor Brown. Potential for contributions from Podkolzin and/or Janmark. And Kane (or Nuge/Skinner/Arvidsson) when/if he’s healthy. Possibly Matt Savoie can also grab a spot and add some offense at some point.
Why not Raphael Lavoie?
He’s better on the LW (and, from what i hear/read, Podz is better on the RW) – I think that 3LW is there for him – he played 6 exhibition games last season and I presume the same this year – hopefully he gets some of those reps with legit middle of the roster NHL players.
I’ve got this thought about Jarventie being a middle six winger at some point. His AHL numbers pop and he would bring size – maybe not a ton of truculence but functional size.
I’d love to see a fourth line combination of (Lavoie-Philp-Podkolzin)
Sure, we can add Lavoie and Jarventie to the list as well.
Certainly all of these names are in the mix for roles somewhere in the bottom 6.
and they both sucked last year……
Look forward to Nurse getting his game back to historical norms and anchoring a strong pairing.
Bouchard, Ekholm and Nurse should all be able to anchor a top 4 pairing.
Agreed, but at the moment Ekholm is probably the only one that can do it with pretty much any player. Bouch maybe now and I think in the future, but most players need the right fit to be at their best
Ekholm because he has everything except youth. Brains, skill, defense, decent skating, toughness and size
May I ask what this is based on?
Bouchard’s numbers away from Ekholm (and away from McDavid) hold up – only 50% goal share but 60% metrics across the board.’
The sample needs to grow but there is every indication that Bouchard is an elite play driving 1D no matter who he plays with.
I think Ekholm benefits from playing with Bouchard just as much as the other way around, if not more.
Yes I know his numbers and they are something. It’s that he hasn’t completely established the fact – Ekholm has – and I can see him having trouble in the D zone with a partner that isn’t a good fit
I think they should try Nurse Bouch to spread the wealth out and use Ek Bouch at certain times. But I wouldn’t be surprised that they have trouble as the biggest weakness for both is mental errors defensively
Bouch has progressed a lot, but it often happens. As I said I think most players need the right fit to be their best. Not many can be with anyone. It also could be very good so worth a good try, and I’d like to see that for Nurse
Difficulty with certain partners often happens, not mental mistakes for Bouch, he’s improved a lot, but it’s still there
I’m not sure that Ekholm is any more established at driving a pairing “with anybody” than Bouchard is – at least not as an Oiler.
In fact, over the second half of last season and the playoffs, I would suggest that Ekholm was making more rush mistakes and puck mistakes than Bouchard was.
I’ve been bringing up splitting Ekholm and Bouch all summer. Not saying its a no-brainer but definitely an option. I threw out Nurse/Bouchard very early on, and if they split, that’s likely the way the coaching staff goes. I would have time for Ek, Bouch and Nurse on three separate pairings.
I think Ekholm has groin issues. When he is having trouble moving he has trouble. When he’s healthy enough he’s still outstanding and their best overall D. Bouch is the most talented but not at Ekholm’s level yet IMO. Not a criticism, he’s young
I disagree and believe that Bouchard is the team’s best all around defenceman.
Bouchard’s defensive game is very good, elite in a couple of areas.
He might be this season. Part of my view is I need to see the all round game be better most of the time. The numbers are there, the eye waits. He certainly will overtake Ek (maybe has) especially given aging
They’re not going to split up Bouchard-Ekholm not for awhile anyhow. They will try to find a fit for Nurse with the remaining players. There’s going to be no 2-7-1 start because our coaches are bored of the success and need to shake things up. I think Coffey will deploy Nurse more offensively if Emberson can be the rock that Nurse needs in my opinion.
Could be right or they could realize they have two top 15 d-men in the NHL that can anchor pairings and, of course, know they can go back to Ekholm/Bouchard at any moment in time – any.
I also look forward to seeing Skinner with McDavid (and Nuge with Drai) as well as Kane with McDavid (when healthy) and Nuge with Henrique.
In the interim (i.e. no Kane), I look forward to Lavoie and Podz competing for that 3LW spot (which would keep Janmark at 4LW).
I look forward to Jarventie having a great start to the Condors season and putting himself in the conversation for a middle-six winger spot in-season.
I’m just here for the Weakerthans reference, bravo.
It sure would be a shame if McDavid and Nurse got injured around the beginning of March and had to be LTIRed for a bit.
Being ably to circumvent the cap by $23 Millionish dollars would be so awful.
Sitting around for a month worrying that they might not be healed and ready in time to play the first game would be unbearable,
Actually, yes, truth be told, that would be a shame.
McDavid missing games with injury would be a shame.
This team lost McLeod, Holloway, Foegele, Broberg. This youthful energy will be missed.
The team at present once again wants to play in the playoffs. I doubt they are looking forward to 82 games to get there.
That is a grind where veterans need some youthful help.
In addition, I find it interesting that fans are not absolutely furious that our top players can be targeted and effectively illuminated or have their performance significantly reduced during playoffs.
Change this one thing and you change the outcome over last several years. A fighting player cannot “protect” the star players, but a team with physicality and intensity will go a long way to reducing the potential.
As the roster stands now, the need is the defence man. As I look towards the full season, it needs youth. As I look towards the playoffs It needs physicality.
I think the team should be looking for more than a defence man, and not shopping at the old folks home. Perhaps find a defence man with some of all three attributes.
They really need some functional grit up front as well. I have been a huge fan of Ryan, but at this point he’s a 13-14. His playoffs were bad. He’s too old slow and small, and his brain isn’t what’s needed now. Next season the 3rd and 4th lines need to have more aggressive players, maybe at the deadline. Of course they need to be able to play well enough in their role first
Finding that in a top 6 isn’t easy, which is why teams get it lower in the lineup. I have said before the template is in house of how the team needs to be built. You need ability but also a mean tough group of players around Connor Leon and Bouch, who are the core moving forward, firstly so they don’t end up trying to do it themselves too much, and secondly to make it harder to just focus on them because the rest aren’t doing much that way
Sather took a few seasons to get Wayne’s wingers set, and Tikk was perfect for the line because he was tough, mean, and drove opponents crazy. It helped make room and draw attention away. A young Perry would be perfect for Connor, or a healthy Kane
Hyman is probably staying with him, but he plays such a clean game and doesn’t really use his size assertively. He’s around the net but doesn’t really create much chaos or distraction. Nuge is also tame, brings no physicality or edge, and isn’t a great finisher most of the time. I think the mix could be better, and better for Connor. Yes the line scores a lot, but pretty much any two players with enough ability are going to with Connor, the question is how to make it even more dangerous and easier on Connor
Wait, what? Zach Hyman doesn’t cause chaos or distraction?
He does, but I mean more in the Perry style, less in the scrambling for the puck around the net. Or Kane, the others have to worry about more than that he might score
It’s mental distraction, gets players off their games. Nobody is that worried about playing Zach. Or Nuge. Zach might sit on the goalie once in a while, but if it’s Perry or Kane they would also be trying to hurt or intimidate the goalie, and the guy trying to get him off is thinking about who they are tussling with. It creates stress, which means they are thinking about Connor less, which is good for Connor
They also have to worry about getting hit hard, or some other aggressive play, think twice about face washing or grabbing Connor in play or post whistle, because it won’t go uncontested and the person asking for the fight is a tough mean customer. They can say no, and it gets worse from there. Matt T can vouch
Crosby is a tank but he still could have used some help like that. He finally put the message out he’d had enough hacking by chopping Methot’s finger half off, not sure that can be done these days, especially by an Oiler
I guess I feel it’s best if Connor isn’t the meanest guy on his line. That can work for some top players, but often those guys are big and their own deterrent, and Connor while tall isn’t a big guy. Ovi Barkov Kopitar Tkachuk Messier Getzlaf etc don’t need that kind of help
I’m glad 97 has some nasty in his game now, it’s the best deterrent, but I think opening ice and giving him more opportunities is the way to develop things, always try to improve. I put up numbers a while back, and while Zach got 50, the line didn’t score many more goals, they just switched them around. There’s another level for Connor still I think
Yeah, I made this same argument yesterday as our host was making a case for Giordano.
Chemistry and balance are not easily quantified so they often get overlooked – right up to the moment when the story the numbers were predicting fail to translate and it suddenly dawns that there is more to the equation than can be discerned by individual statistics.
I’m all in on getting a shit disturbing forward in saying that the pendulum will finally be in our side when it comes to penalties in the regular season. The team has earned the respect of the Refs and I believe will recieve favourable calls that top 6 teams seem to receive more often than not.
I am very excited about the second line. Leon finally has quality wingers that can score. I think he has one of his best years ever.
I also think the second and third pairs post better goal shares largely because of the improved forward group.
The quality of the forward group is much higher for sure. Age aside Skinner Arvi Henri as it stands are significantly better than Foegele McLeod Holloway. Lost some speed for sure. Foegele got his goals, but he isn’t a good top 6 because of the other parts of his game to me, and quite few of those that do media analysis
Back forty, you can see the philosophical difference between JJ and SB to KH. Ken liked size and what seemed like steady most, and would accept less skill. They have gotten smaller, but by all reports better at the game overall, in proactive defending and puck movement. And I think mobility. That will compliment the better forward group more than Ceci Des would
Ceci isn’t a bad player, he had a few great moments in the playoffs, but like Foegele the body of work just isn’t enough for a team built like the Oilers. The Oilers last season after getting the right coach were a very talented team, they have some players that are so good in reg season it hid deficiencies elsewhere
The second pair was above water, but lagged the top pair too much. And once the playoffs started those that really weren’t doing what was needed were completely exposed, Des for the tweener he is, Ceci for not having enough pace and game to help when intensity and speed was amped up and every game
One of the biggest issues with Nurse – Ceci was that they spent most of their time playing with forward who were not a threat to score.
They played ~570 minutes with Connor or Leon at 5v5 last reg season out of 992 minutes played together and 269 with McLeod, who had GF% and xGF% of 56. To me just not good enough together and a key reason for the comparatively weak 45-40 Goal Diff
If Stecher is with Nurse and their small sample size numbers reflected reality the difference reg season at least will be noticeable for 2nd pair
Foegele and McLeod should of had way more clear cut breakaways and semi ones driving down the wing but it’s not in their DNA. Now that Foegele recieved his juicy contract he’ll go back to perimeter play that him and McLeod love so much. Skinner and Arvidsson will go to the net differently Arvidsson by driving and Skinner has a knack of getting lost in the high end real estate neighborhood.
Just that little extra missing. I checked playoff numbers again
Van
Foegele 0 pts GF% 20
McLeod 0 pts GF% 33
Dallas
Foegele 1 pts GF% 33
McLeod 1 pts GF% 33
Florida
Foegele 4 pts GF% 50
McLeod 2 pts GF% 25
WF stepped up in the finals some, still couldn’t outscore, but the other series are why the two are gone IMO. Parkatti wouldn’t have missed this