Oilers v. Jets G3 Young Stars Classic

by Lowetide

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The Great One
The Great One

Lucas Raymond signs a 8 X 8.08 million contract in Detroit.

Another young stud locked up for his prime years.

The Great One

Lucas Raymond took a big leap last season and signs a deal that has strong potential to turn into a steal.

https://x.com/domluszczyszyn/status/1835814260812709916?s=61

Justthestatsman

He seems like an up and coming player, but we won’t know until we know of course.

His contract could also be a boat anchor. I see his shooting % last year was 19%, which was over 6% higher than his career average coming into last year. I’d expect some regression, at least for this coming year.

The Great One

Very small chance of a boat anchor:

“The Detroit Red Wings selected Raymond, a forward from Gothenburg, Sweden, with the No. 4 pick in the 2020 NHL Draft after he impressed scouts during his first full season with Frolunda of the Swedish Hockey League. He scored 10 points (four goals, six assists) in 33 games as a 17-year-old playing in Sweden’s top league.

Raymond made his SHL debut with Frolunda at age 16 on Oct. 4, 2018 and was three months shy of his 17th birthday when he scored his first SHL goal for Frolunda on Dec. 28, 2018.

Against players his own age, he scored 14 points (three goals, 11 assists) in nine games with Frolunda’s Under-20 team in the SuperElit league and four points (two goals, two assists) in seven games to help Sweden finish third at the 2020 IIHF World Junior Championships.

Raymond earned his way onto the Red Wings roster opening night roster in October 2021 with a standout NHL prospect tournament and training camp in Traverse City. He had an assist in his NHL debut against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Oct. 14 and was named the NHL Rookie of the Month for November, one month after his
teammate, defenseman Moritz Seider, won the honor for October.

Raymond scored 12 points (five goals, seven assists) in 14 November games, averaging 17:34 of ice time.

In a 6-3 win against the Chicago Blackhawks on Oct. 24, Raymond scored his first NHL hat trick and became the second teenager to get one in Red Wings history, joining Steve Yzerman, who did it twice (Dec. 23, 1983, and March 30, 1985).

The same game, he also became the third Red Wings teenager with a four-point game, joining Yzerman (Dec. 23, 1983) and Gordie Howe (Dec. 17, 1947).“

OriginalPouzar

I was unaware the scouting reports guarantee NHL success.

I would anticipate he provides value for this contract.

Reja

The offer sheet by jerk off Armstrong will add to G.M’s locking up players at a earlier age. I think Armstrong put a target on his back the same way Lowe did 20 years ago.

The Great One

Locking up core young players coming out of their ELCs has been good business for a while.

Some teams didn’t get the memo.

See Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard for reference.

Ranford.85

Locking up core young players coming out of their ELCs isn’t always good business.

Some teams overpay a young talent that doesn’t progress.

The Great One

Do you have some examples?

Ranford.85

Josh Norris comes to mind.
The problem is your wide sweeping statements. There are always examples of the opposite whenever you make them.

Last edited 3 months ago by Ranford.85
The Great One

Impossible to predict injury.

Norris has injured the same shoulder 3 times and now has had surgery and is expected to be fully healthy for training camp.

Before the injury he scored 35 goals and 55 points in 66 games.

Are you suggesting no player should be signed to a long term contract because he might get injured?

OriginalPouzar

Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris have both stagnated and are underperforming their extensions.

Scungilli Slushy

It’s not that simple. It’s when you sign them long

Contracts expiring at peak prime are not ideal. See Draisaitl

The Great One

I would argue he is past his peak prime years but the Oilers got a bargain out of the final few years of the 8 year deal but are now paying the piper.

The alternative of bridging a core player is likely best exemplified by Matt Tkachuk’s 3 year extension in Calgary…..oops.

Makes me wonder what Bouchard and his agent are thinking.

Given that he is already tens of millions in the hole due to bridge contracts, would they go to arbitration for a short term deal and then hit UFA status to cash in?

Side

Is that Evan, the “Not an NHL player” you are referring to with that “eye” of yours? Odd that you suddenly think he should have been locked up long term then.

Pretendergast

Connor Mcdavid and Leon Draisaitl say hello

The Great One

Yep…the San Jose gambit.

Funny Bissonness

This works a lot better when the teams and players you are trumpeting are better than the Oilers and Oilers players. Looks like a good deal for both sides. I think you’re going to have to wait awhile for that San Jose dig to have any bite though. Like a long while.

CruJones

Didn’t catch the game today but had fun with the family in Penticton over the weekend, minus the surprise emergency brake job on our van (trailer + mountains = bad). Pretty funny to stroll around town and it seems like everyone is a player or staff for a team. Walked by the Sedins yesterday along the beach.

Super impressed with the staff at the arena. Kids had their hearts set on some autographs and after having no luck, arena staff texted someone with the Oilers to see if they could come out after the game, and then eventually came out and grabbed us to come down so boys could meet a few of the “guys” (some of whom are only 9-10 years older than my children). Both kids wore their jerseys to school today.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

having caught part of the game…

savoie makes some nice give and go plays, i can visualize him looking very good on a line with draisaitl longterm.

OriginalPouzar

He seems to excell at getting the puck off his stick quickly with positive plays.

Reja

This is good news the success Yamo had with RNH and Leon was because of his quickness with the give and go. Yamo excelled at this quality for a nice stretch of games.

Lewis Grant

Let’s hope Savoie can do it for longer than Yamo. Savoie is also short (albeit much thicker than Yamo).

Eberle was also a master at this kind of thing.

OriginalPouzar

In some respects, Savoie seems to have some similar attributes to Yamamoto – in particular the tenacity on the forecheck.

Kind of a bigger/stockier and more skilled Yamamoto (in some respects)

OriginalPouzar

I haven’t watched a hockey game, at any level, with this amount of fights in a long time. Grubbe now drops them (not much of a fight).

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

grubbe plays a much grittier game than i expected.

Reja

I figured the Jets-Flames-Canucks might target certain Oilers to get noticed and make a impression. It sounds like the boys are sticking together we could use a couple of feisty individuals to keep the Pospisal in line like the late Mr.Cave did so in the A.H.L

unca miltie

If you google that fight, I can be seen cheering on Colby Cave. Still sad to have lost him so soon.

OriginalPouzar

Clattenburg fights again.

A long ways to go on his “puck skills” and ability to “play the game” but he’s going to be leaving lasting memories with his consistent physical presence.

OriginalPouzar

Wanner bombs one off the cross-bar!

OriginalPouzar

Corbett with his third fight of the tournament – landing bombs against the Jet player that had been running around during the 1st (I think the guy that took Berglund out of the game with a hit – game is just on in the background as, well, its Monday afternoon and clients have wants).

Reja

Who exactly is Corbett and kudos for some retribution for a teammate. There’s a reason they had 2 forwards playing along side raw but feisty Clattenburg.

Bill

Nate Corbet Defence #71 Medicine Hat Tigers Invite to Rookie Camp.
6’2
170lbs

72pim in 51 games.

OriginalPouzar

Looks like status quote with the lines and pairings for today (maybe some minor tweaks with the invites that I can’t ascertain by looking) with Brochu getting the start in net.

OriginalPouzar

I read/hear the odd opinion that the Oilers are dropping the ball by not getting Bouchard extended this off-season, a year in advance.

I do think this is something they should work on over the course of the season but I don’t think its all that urgent at this point. Frankly I don’t think the terms of bridge or a long term deal with change materially between now to mid-season to end of season. I think we all know this is a $10MM (apx) d-man long term and I don’t really see that changing either way.

Of note, RFAs that remain unsined for THIS season on the even of camp include, off the top of my head: Swayman, Perfetti, Raymond, Sieder, Harley……

daniel

Sooner is better than later.

Bouchard put up 105 point pace in the playoffs. Hi could score 100 points and win the Norris. It’s not out of the question.

What if he only scores 85 points in the reg, but puts up 32 points on the way to a cup victory? Is he worth more then?

He also could sign an $12M AAV offer sheet. After winning a cup with EDM, why not cash out on the really big money??

Mick Taylor left the glimmer twins. Anything can happen.

OriginalPouzar

He could score 100 points and win the Norris but I still don’t think that will change his AAV by more than a million – he’s in the $10MM to $11MM range in my opinion.

Sooner is better, of course, and I alluded to it in my post.

Sure, he could sign a $12MM offer sheet which the team will match (not much of an overpay) or take 4 1st round picks.

Offer sheets for the higher end players make less sense than those in the Broberg/Holloway range.

Seider and Harley have not signed offer sheets.

My point was simply that him not having signed before this season is in no way concerning, at least to me.

daniel

If an extra one or two million AVV is no big deal, then sure it’s not concerning and it can wait.

OriginalPouzar

Noone said to just wait, in fact the opposite.

Traveller

A $12 million dollar offer sheet requires the cap space and 4 first round draft picks. I believe 8 other teams have already traded their first round pick for 2025 and more will get traded by the trade deadline. The teams with the cap space, the 4 round picks and the need are going to more likely be in the bottom half of the league. Is Bouchard going to want to sign with a low end team that has also just traded away a huge swath of what they could use to keep building?

daniel

I’m aware of the picks and cap required. Calgary would be a candidate based on those criteria it seems. Could they make the delta big enough to encourage Bouchard to sign? If he’s already won a cup with Edmonton, does he sign it? Would Edmonton match? What if $13M ? Would Calgary present a high offer sheet even if EDM would match just to damage EDM’s cap situation?

Traveller

Crosby extends thru 2027 in Pittsburgh, poetically at the same $8.7 million AAV as his past 2 contracts. Staying at a flat salary for 19 years, the poor guy doesn’t get to keep up with inflation.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/penguins-sidney-crosby-signs-two-year-extension-with-8-7m-aav/

Who would have guessed after his concussion issues in 2011 and 2012, that he is now looking like he will get to 22 seasons and all with the Penguins. And still at a remarkably high level.

Last edited 3 months ago by Traveller
SVR

Crosby Plus 5.3 mill in cap space is better than 29. This is what a team player looks like

The Great One

I would expect Malkin will sign a one year extension for peanuts and 40 year old Letang will somehow eschew the last year of his contract and they will all ride off into the sunset (and the HHOF) together.

Great story.

Reja

i would say Sidney is going to magically end up with a piece of pie on part ownership of the Pens after he retires. This amount will make a few million look like change in a tin can.

The Great One

Not a bad bet.

Reja

what do you think Leon should of signed for that would of made you happy? Do you think Leon should of been traded for a haul and the cap space and draft capital used on several good players say a 2rd D a Centre.

SVR

I know my take is not popular, but Leon has made his money just like Sid. I think 12 mill per would have shown good faith that he was serious about leaving some money on the table so a team could be built around him to contend.
Even at 14 mill, I wouldn’t trade him cause you likely lose the trade. Unless you can get Crosby in return😁

Reja

Crosby career is winding down Leon is in his prime his peers were looking and quite frankly depending on him to set the standard with the cap continuing to skyrocket. Leon could of happily walked away signing a cozy deal with less pressure than Edmonton. I firmly believe Connor moves on if Leon would of left. I’ll take Leon-Connor-Bouchard giving us a top 6 chance of winning the cup for the next 10 years.

Diablo

Crosby superstitions have likely cost him millions over the years. But he’s happy, so that’s what matters. One of the all time greats.

Lewis Grant

He’s taken team-friendly contracts, and as a result, will retire with three Cups in the cap era. I think he was both smart and happy.

(He made plenty from sponsorship money too.)

The Great One

Father Time is undefeated.

While Crosby remains very productive, his peak season was 11 years ago when he was 27.

SVR

Exactly. I like Leon as one of the best players in the league. There is no guarantee that he ages anywhere near as well as Sid has.
If I was forced to bet, I would say his drop off will be faster and further, while his cap hit stays at 14 mill..

I think we’d have a better chance at a cup the next two years with Sid and a 5.3 million 2RD, than we will have with Leon and Troy Stecher

The Great One

Given his inability to remain healthy into the playoffs the past couple of seasons, it’s possible his decline has already begun and could accelerate.

To my eye, the closest comparable is Joe Thornton in position, size and playing style.

While Thornton had a long, productive career, his 10th season was his peak and the beginning of a long slow decline.

Leon is about to play his 10th NHL season with his new contract kicking in the year after.

Of course, as Crosby has demonstrated, no two players age in identical fashion but all the aging curve models I’ve seen don’t bode well for players in their mid to late 30s.

And I agree with your expectation especially considering the large number of other greybeards with unmoveable contracts on the team and a barren prospect pool as evidenced by the Young Stars lack of production.

Side

To your eye, Draisaitl’s ceiling was Joe Colborne.

You have less of an eye and more of a “throw stuff at a wall and see what sticks” approach.

Not a lot sticks for you though.

Reja

Buckle up I think your in for a treat and we see peak Leon who will out battle Connor for the race as this will be the first time Leon will be playing with scoring skill. Holland couldn’t get it done the Kahun-Reider-Jurco etc line scrubs are gone. The Stone Age has ended for Leon 2 skilled scorers as well as a 3rd line will have Leon with his best season coming up. Leon=Hart=Cup

Pretendergast

Nope. Wrong.

Peak was 120 points when he was 19.

11 years ago was his 3rd most productive season at age 26.

OriginalPouzar

Crosby’s last two contracts took up over 15% of the cap and over 13% of the cap. Drai’s next contract will be about 15% of the cap when it starts after playing his absolute prime at a contract that started at just over 11% of the cap.

No doubt that Leon got paid in full and, if he signs again for his 38 and 39 year old season, he’s likely to do something similar to Crosby.

The Great One

How many cups had Crosby won when he signed that 13% contract?

SVR

Crosby was a better player than Leon is now at the time he signed the 13% contract

OriginalPouzar

At the time he signed that contract he was coming off seasons of 42 and then 21 games….

SVR

Hey, I’m as big of an Oiler fan as anyone, buts let be real. Draisaitl is arguably a top 5 player in the league right now, Crosby is arguably a top 5 player of all time. Two different tiers

OriginalPouzar

I don’t disagree with that.

That doesn’t change the fact that, when Crosby signed the contract we are talking about, injuries were a MAJOR thing in his career.

SVR

So to bring this back to the original conversation, Crosby took less pay throughout his career,as one of the best players ever, to help the team management have more cap space to work with in hopes of building a contender.
Leon has taken fair market value,throughout his career, giving his team less cap space to build a contender.

I think 12 mill a year would have been leaving some on the table, which is coincidentally, 13% of the cap

OriginalPouzar

Crosby took 15% of the cap and 13% of the cap.

15% of the cap being generally the upper end for elite players over the years.

The 13% contract was signed when he came off a season playing 21 games (and the prior 42) when longevity of his career was highly in question.

No question Crosby could have got more, not denying that. At the same time, I don’ think this extension is that unreasonable given his age and it doesn’t kick in for another full season. I don’t expect a 90 point player over his new contract.

Leon did take full fair market value during his last deal on the date it was signed – he got paid – he outperformed that contract to a massive extent the last 4-5 (soon to be 5-6) years.

SVR
Last edited 3 months ago by SVR
Genjutsu

If only Leon had an obsession with the number 1 he’d have signed for a million.

OriginalPouzar

Afternoon “Oilers” hockey? I’m in.

Come on Matvey, announce your appearance before main camp!

LMHF#1

It’s one thing to swing and miss a few times – it is another to be facing away from home plate, sitting on your rear and wielding a table leg.

Even a rando from a hockey board would have done better than they did with that group. Fairly easily. So much waste.

JJS

Andy Sutton was surprisingly effective

Justthestatsman

My memory is the same. On the other hand, Eric Belanger was NOT!

jonrmcleod

So you’re an expert on Andy Sutton? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab1mHvywIqI

finn_fann

Man, what a blast from the past. I believe this was the start of the HOPE year, yet we were in fact just entering the heart of the decade of darkness. Crazy to read the list and realize we basically flushed all the players who could play for cents on the dollar within the next few years.

John Chambers

Thing is that team rode a PDO heater all the way to U.S. Thanksgiving. HOPE prevailed until December when the wheels came off in a big way.

MushedPeas

Couldn’t take it. had to skip to the comments section.

kinger_OIL

— Yeah it is an interesting trip down memory lane. On the one hand sure a lot of this changed

— But it’s a reminder of how much we are “homers”. So excited we were about that team that in reality was just bad with not enough talent and ineptness all the way up the food chain.

— Compare and contrast to this era: still haven’t won anything not even Presidents Cup. But the difference in actual talent is so vast and it would appear so too the decision makers and management a nexus in terms of calibre.

— We have to win a cup going forward don’t we?

Scungilli Slushy

There are no guarantees, but what has happened this summer is the first real step in that direction to me since Sather was around

Some managers are good at what they do, some aren’t. Some teams rise, some stay at the top of the range, some just can’t figure out what the right things to do are

kinger_OIL

—True: it is incredible though to look back and realize that subsequent the team bottomed out again : as a result of the combination of management jot being able to figure out what to do as you say and the overall lack of talent despite all those high draft picks.

— McD was a godsend: entirely received as as a result of that ineptitude

Scungilli Slushy

Ineptitude and a lot of luck

Scungilli Slushy

Some GM was talking about it the other day, it’s really hard to get elite talent. Maybe it was Bowman. They mentioned that just because you win the bottom part of the regular season (draft first) there isn’t usually a generational player there, sometimes not even a big impact player

That was part of the problem. Nuge Hall Yak. Two fine players of three, but not top players to me. Lucking and failing into Connor makes it all worth while though. I hope these guys can get the job done, that should have been a couple of years ago. No GM worth their salt starts with an all time great in prime and a very good core in prime, and takes 5 years to get to three of four holes left still, one finals appearance, no cup, and a depleted system

Reja

We finally have a proper 3rd line Centre we are going to see firsthand how quietly Henrique improves the first 2 lines because of his line demolishing the opponents 3rd line. Oilers will add 45-50 Goals this season because we finally have 2 wingers for Leon and threat to score 3rd line

jp

There are no guarantees, but what has happened this summer is the first real step in that direction to me since Sather was around

The first real step towards winning a Cup happened AFTER losing game 7 of the Cup final by one goal?