This is the ‘certain Oilers’ list from September of 2015. Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse were both sent down to the Bakersfield Condors a week before I made this list, so we were waiting for a goalie and a couple of forwards. We all agreed that the Oilers would run these men opening night. Did they?
OPENING NIGHT 2015
The Oilers starters that night were Cam Talbot in net, Oscar Klefbom-Justin Schultz on the blue, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with Benoit Pouliot and Teddy Purcell on the wings. Nikita Nikitin was not on the team, Andrew Ference and Brandon Davidson were scratches (Davidson damn near hit the waiver wire, which would have been a mistake) and Griffin Reinhart was in the lineup opening night. Anders Nilsson was the backup that night, winning the job from the uncertain pile.
Among forwards, Jordan Eberle was not on the roster (I don’t have the injured list but he and Nikitin were surely on it), and Rob Klinkhammer was a healthy scratch. The forwards from the uncertain pile who played opening night? Anton Slepyshev and Luke Gazdic, both from the uncertain pile.
Some who post here believe training camp doesn’t matter, the die is cast. So, there’s no real reason to post this year’s certain, uncertain and distant bells, but I’ll do it anyway just for fun.
CERTAIN AND UNCERTAIN OILERS
Steady as she goes so far, but with coach Kris Knoblauch saying he’d like to see the actual NHL players in games, suspect we see a pile soon. You may or may not see the AHL guys on this list over the next couple of games, but they’ll be sent down soon. I would like to see Olivier Rodrigue, Phil Kemp and Raphael Lavoie at least once more, and I strongly suspect we’ll see Noah Philp again.
I believe there should be more concern over the RH defense on the Oilers, but the story doesn’t have wheels. I’ve been making a fuss for a few days now, am wondering if others think this is fine (emoji) or we’re all still in summer mode. It’s a big damned deal, people. The organization is using calm verbal, but this team is going to lose games because RH defense unless there is a recognition of the problem. A curious approach for a team that went 2-7-1. Maybe signing Leon Draisaitl was the goal for this season. Huh.
UNCERTAIN OILERS
Interesting list, there are some names who shouldn’t have a strikethrough but are hanging around. Sam O’Reilly is looking good and is a perfect fit for need (RHC). His presence likely means another start and after that he’ll get sent out or this will be an emerging story. Cam Dineen and Connor Carrick have impressed. I don’t think Drake Caggiula or Mike Hoffman are destined for the NHL this season. From this list, my guess is Connor Carrick is the last cut due to handedness and O’Reilly is absolutely the most interesting name.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we’ll discuss the Oilers and growing concern over the RH defense for this season. Our guests include Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Karl Buschek from A’s unleashed talks Oakland Athletics. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
NEW for The Athletic: How much more can Oilers winger Connor Brown contribute this season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5792332/2024/09/27/connor-brown-oilers-stats/
Summarizing!
Nicholl led the way for London, potting 2+1 (all on the PP) with a team-high 4 SOG. He was named 2nd star for his efforts.
Clattenburg picked up two assists.
Day-man was a successful fighter of the Knight-men, stopping 19 of 23 in a 7-4 victory and friendship for everyone.
Berry was held without soup in a SO loss.
Wakely was not in the lineup for North Bay.
The 2024 Chicago White Sox now stand alone in baseball’s hall of futility — 121 losses and counting, a staggering total too extreme to completely grasp.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/41421364/2024-mlb-chicago-white-sox-121-losses-record-1962-new-york-mets-numbers
And they’re planning to cut payroll.
The evils of revenue sharing.
What would an RH defenseman have to do to directly cause the team to lose games?
Shoot the puck into our own net like Russell did against TOR in the way back.
Or whatever terrible things that prospect guy (can’t remember who) did when he played like two or three shifts in one game and then never played again.
If it’s not that obvious, it’s hard to pin a loss on defenseman play.
Because, you know, goalies have to stop most shots, and forwards have to score on a few.
Samorukov.
Sure, but I also remember pre-Ekholm (1.5 years ago!) how that 2nd pair just wasn’t good enough.
It’s qualitative (well, also GF%), but IMO Kulak wasn’t quite up to the task. And maybe unfair to pin it on him.
But I do think we may see something like that again this season.
I’m personally not overly worried about it being an issue during the regular season, but I do think it could be a big issue in the playoffs if it proves difficult to address (via trade, or much less likely internal development). Just my opinion though.
That prospect guy was Dimitri Samourkov and he was used to acquire Klim Kostin (from the team that lit him up……).
Not an Oilers prospect–and likely never will be since he’ll be a high pick next summer–but Michael Misa of the Saginaw Spirit has played four periods of hockey already this season and already has five goals. That includes a natural hat trick in period 1 tonight. Also has a SH apple this eve.
Nicholl has just picked up an aPPle.
Bob McKenzie had Misa at #7 in his pre-season draft rankings.
Also keep an eye on #6 Roger McQueen (you just know his nickname is going to be Bullit) of the Brandon Wheat Kings who has 4 goals and 6 points after 2GP.
Flattenburg gets the first NAmateur point of the season with a helper.
First NAmateur goal courtesy of Nicholl on the PP.
2 assists for Clattenburg and 2 PPGs for Nicholl (with 15 minutes left) is nice start to the season.
Ronnie Attard hits the waiver wire.
Former 3 rd rounder 2019. 6’3, 208 lbs. RHS D.
https://www.broadstreethockey.com/post/ronnie-attard-among-three-flyers-placed-on-waivers/
Any insights? Pronman says he’s not a great skater.
He’s reputed to have a howitzer for a shot though.
There’s generally a reason players like this keep not sticking in the NHL (Attard is 25 and is a relatively early TC cut).
It’s very tough to see why from his ‘player card’ though. RD with size. He’s put up points all down the line. His AHL +/- has been solid relative to team. His actual and underlying numbers have been excellent in 29 NHL games.
Interesting player.
Emberson was a waivers claim by SJS from NYR.
Attard has a similar profile, better RELs than Emberson over similar sample, seems more puck moving. Maybe SJS claims him. Possible to get these players without trading away your #4-5 defender.
Ceci was traded for cap reasons. Not sure why you’ve been trying to claim otherwise. The other available options were: 1) Trade Kulak instead of Ceci, or 2) Don’t trade either, use Kane’s LTIR, do not accrue cap space. The Oilers didn’t ‘trade their #4 defender to get Emberson’.
But there is some similarity between Emberson and Attard. I’m not sure where ‘better RELs’ for Attard is coming from though – they look very similar to me.
Emberson is also a couple years younger than Attard, has played 1/3 more minutes vs. elites in the same number of NHL games, and received 42% Ozone starts vs. 57% for Attard. So different usage.
Beyond that, I think that Emberson sticking in the NHL once he got there is a better arrow than Attard who played a few games across 3 different seasons but never stuck (nor in this one).
Anyway, waiver pickups do sometimes turn into something. It just doesn’t happen that often, so you can’t use it as a plan. Emberson being a waiver claim certainly doesn’t mean Attard is going to be something.
And FWIW, Emberson was also a #1 overall waiver claim, while the Oilers this year are picking 24th.
We all see the cap benefit to the trade, and nobody’s denying the cap savings. But yes, listening to Stauffer and Seravalli there most certainly is evidence that they did actively trade their #4 defender for Emberson, based on his previous association with Knoblauch and his fancies. It seems that Edmonton wanted the player and actively pursued him. He wasn’t a convenient return on a cap dump. Here’s some of the rhetoric that you might have already read:
Attard played a lesser role, at third pairing minutes over a similar NHL sample in games to Emberson, but spread across three seasons. In those appearances in the lesser role, he had better RELs for all the shot-based NST metrics compiled across all NHL appearances. It looks like he had success moving the puck up the ice in a third pairing role.
Last season Attard posted a postive all competition DFF% of 57.6 (3.90 DFF%RC) with 30 percent of his TOI against elites. Emberson posted a DFF% of 46.8 (10.60 DFF%RC) with 32 percent of his TOI against elites.
2021-2024 NST
Emberson
GP 30
556 allsits TOI
18:32 allsits TOI/GP
5v5 RELs
0.6 CF% REL
0.25 FF% REL
1.10 xGF% REL
14.19 GF% REL
Attard
GP 29
467 allsits TOI
16:06 allsits TOI/GP
5v5 RELs
6.0 CF% REL
5.62 FF% REL
3.68 xGF% REL
10.82 GF% REL
Emberson was on the worst team in the NHL, actively pursuing a high draft pick. On a different team he may well have been waived.
Emberson coming in trade -a targeted trade- certainly doesn’t mean he’s going to be something and nobody is claiming that Attard is a solution to anything. Simply that there is a money puck case to be made for the player. The most important characteristic is missing: he didn’t play for Knoblauch.
For some reason you omitted some of the NST metrics while including others. The omitted ones are:
Emberson
SF% REL +4.1%
SCF% REL +0.2%
HDCF% REL +1.0%
Attard
SF% REL +4.3%
SCF% REL +4.7%
HDCF% REL -3.9%
I think their RELs are a wash, as I said initially.
You were directly comparing Attard to Emberson in ‘profile’ and quality, while claiming the Oilers traded their #4 Dman for Emberson while they could get a comparable player (Attard) for free.
Lots more than ‘simple’ going on here.
I do agree that a money puck case can be made for Attard (and in fact I made one in my original post that you replied to).
I included what are generally considered the most salient measures. AND I linked to all the numbers at NST.
They are not a wash at all. They show and important contrast between the players.
Attard > Emberson in all categories except GF% and HDCF%. It seems to indicate that Attard is more of a puck mover while Emberson is more shut-down.
Profile similarities:
-RHD
-approximatey 30 games in the NHL
-Good fancies
-Both players have hit waivers in the career
As a matter of fact the Oilers did trade their #4 D man for Emberson and a third round pick. That’s a point of fact that is absolutely undeniable. And there are similar players that can be claimed off of waivers every season. Those are points of fact. There’s no opinion there.
A point of opinion is to what degree the Ceci trade was simply a cap dump, or whether Emberson was targeted. I don’t think you really listen much to radio/podcats and from what I gather you aren’t in Edmonton. Emberson was definitely targeted.
The Ceci trade was more about Emberson than we realize.
Not to mention the howls reported by media from various GM’s around the league who were salivating at what it was going to cost the Oilers in order to dump Ceci due to the cap situation.
At the time I believe there were a number of reports indicating disbelief that Grier had let the Oilers off so easily.
That’s not accurate. A lot of people saw value in Ceci as a trade piece. If he were on the left side, that would not be the case. Generally Ceci was viewed as a serviceable right hand shot defender who could play 20 minutes a night and play on your penalty kill. The contract is/was viewed as reasonable.
Of course, the statement should be expanded to include the context of the trade which was the reduction in cap hit that the team was looking for.
Jim Matheson
Knoblauch says Sam O’Reilly, Oil first-round pick, will play either Saturday vs Seattle or Monday vs Vanc. Feels the 32nd overall draft pick hasn’t been overwhelmed by anything. Likely returning to London jr. but this was clearly a good move by Edm to trade with Flyers for pick
Interesting paragraph in Marry’s piece today where Nurse has asked Coffey if he wants him to be a shutdown d-man:
Been saying it all along Coffey is going to turn Nurse loose let him play to his strengths. If we see a freewheeling Nurse aka Larry Robinson Nurse Contract will no longer be a burden. It wouldn’t surprise if Nurse scores 15 Goals being a driver while Emberson secures the fort aka Jason Smith.
This is an awesome perspective. I do think Nurse needs to be “turned loose” Hell get caught here and there and we will have to live with it. But when he plays full out he is a handful.
Just read it, this is a very positive article, reminder of what Nurse can do. Thanks.
Not saying he would be the solution to the team’s RD problem, but Maxence Guenette is an interesting name to hit waivers today. 6’3, 23 year old two-way RD with 2 quality AHL seasons under his belt (https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/410616/maxence-guenette).
Getting waived this early could be perceived as an indictment but knowing the specifics of the situation changes things a bit. Adding Jensen to Zub and JBD in the offseason has crowded their RD pool and, given his NMC, Hamonic can’t be sent down.
Good find here. I was looking to compare Emberson to Kemp at the same age and league, since kemp is a year older. Guenette is a year younger than Emberson, so:
Player, year, GP, G, A, +-, team +-
Kemp, 21-22, 55, 3, 6, 9, +6, +33
Emberson, 22-23, 69, 7, 20, 27, +17, +13
Guenette, 23-24, 58, 7, 27, 34, +5, -2
Right now, I’d take him over any of our RHD besides Bouchard, Emberson and Stecher. So if Stecher is not 100% then this is a good idea.
Oh no wait, he’s a 7th round pick. ?
My post yesterday was too negative. I still like the team, but was hoping for more after the strong start to the off season.
Dam offer sheets. If you move Holloway and Broberg to certain Oilers I would feel better. As we would still have Emberson and hopefully the Podkolzin as well. Thats strong.
For a contender that right side d position is not where you want to be. And the last open roster spots, we know what is needed, but I do not see any clear candidates.
Positive, – Kane coming in fresh at the end of the season could be very welcome.
Because of a barrage of propaganda from Stauffer and Seravalli.
Under Holland, prospects over-ripened in the AHL and were blocked by veterans. Holland was risk averse.
Under Jackson/Bowman, bets placed on lesser vets and money puck while jettisoning players that were established and/or finally developing.
Readers of this blog should both be intrigued by the money puck angle, and terrified of a franchise that has a questionable track record evaluating defence and defenders. Bouchard and Ekholm being incredible exceptions.
I don’t get all the concern about RSD. Most couldn’t get Ceci out of town quick enough. Desharnais who is a great story of perseverance but was literally a slow 3rd pairing D who killed penalties. Thats 2 lost on a team that went to game 7 and may have replacements already. This D may not be good enough to win Stanley but it’s certainly good enough to get to the trade deadline near the top of the standings. I think some just always need something to fret about.
The team is still nursing a Stanley Cup game 7 hangover they and I could give 2 shits if Calgary beats us 10-0 in a more than meaningless game. It’s about the process this team will not start 3-9-1 again. They know the importance of getting out of the gate coach K.K and Coffey won’t be reverse engineering our system. Once Emberson gets the reps he’ll be fine as coach knows what makes this player tick. If stecher injury is not healing probably Bownan can go waiver hunting for a replacement easily enough.
There is no waiver hunting from the 24th position though Reja. There aren’t 23 dumb GM’s in the league.
You can pick up a player for say a 3rd-4th rounder before he hits the wire. I think stecher not healing properly may force Bowman’s hand. We have the best top 9 since the mid Eighties and the best 1-2 punch with Bouchard and Ekholm since the Pronger days all Kris and Coffey need to do is let them play. Leon is going to have a MVP monster year.
Agreed on the trade. I have been saying this every time the waiver wire gets mentioned. It’s tricky though because there are many teams hoping to slip guys through who would change plans if approached before they waive.
This is why trades like the one for Klostin take place afterwards imo.
Both Samorukov and Kosin cleared waiver.
No team wanted to keep them on their NHL roster to start the season – they only had that marginal trade value once they cleared and could go straight to the AHL affiliate.
Whoa a third rounded for a league min (or close thereto) player that will be on the waiver wire – I personally don’t think that’s a good idea.
The thing is, they need to arrive healthy and with energy. Not flat out McDavid to overcome weaknesses on the roster.
Also lost Broberg
Also lost McLeod, Holloway, and Foegele, with a couple vets aging out. it may not be something to lose sleep over but it does not provide high confidence to me. Need to see some evidence.
Fun fact – Adam Henrique is third in the Doughty draft class (2008) with 263 goals. Behind only Stamkos (555) and a guy named Eberle (299).
LAK announce Doughty getting surgery for a broken ankle and is out month to month.
https://x.com/lakings/status/1839753220979151261?s=61
Coach Tidbits:
Bouchard will kill penalties this year – it may not be in one of the two pair (TBT) but in the 5 spot at least. PK is about smarts and the ability to clear the puck – he has both skills.
Nurse won’t play tomorrow but hopefully soon.
Each of the next two games will likely see 2 of their lines and 2 of their pairings – the players will be “in their roles”
Last two game will be close to the NHL lineup with maybe 2 forwards and 1 bubble d-men.
R.I.P. Dame Maggie Smith. Brilliant actress.
I agree that the right side D is an issue but I also see an issue on the left side. The left side will be a big issue if/when injury hits AND over the next 2-3 years. We will miss Broberg.
I think Ryan Pulock should be a possible target for RHD. The contract would be difficult but not impossible to navigate.
Why would the Islanders trade him?
Because they are a perpetually mediocre team.
So trade an accomplished RD for what?
What do the Oilers have to help the Isle address that?
“Why would Nashville trade Ekholm?”
An incoming new GM was focused on moving out redundant aging vets to accumulate multiple first and second round picks as well as make room for younger players.
Nashville has three first and two second round picks in 2025 but has also replaced Ekholm with Brady Skjei who is 4 years younger.
This approach also allowed Trotz to sign Stamkos and Marchessault to team friendly contracts and go into the season with $4.7 million in cap space despite carrying $7.8 million in dead cap.
And the Islanders had an unremarkable playoff season and were very quiet this offseason. Almost as if Lou may be waiting to see whether he should kickoff a rebuild or not.
If it’s the rebuild route, perhaps that may entail, idk, Islanders sending Pulock, an aging vet, out West to the Oilers in exchange for a prospect and a pick.
Most of the affordable RS D are not likely to hit the trade market. They have already worked with or signed the RD from lesser teams, the others will want to keep their players like Borgen who at 25 pts isn’t going to become too expensive
They also can’t take on an expensive contract with term unless Nurse is moved, and that isn’t very likely ATM. Shopping in the discount aisle for a few seasons more, at least, hoping Wanner keeps progressing. If he does as much this season he will be hard to send down next camp. They also very likely won’t trade a forward and commit the cap at D because they will be too out of balance, lots of increased salaries coming
Prospectocious!
Not much time, but I’ll do the best I can.
The OHL’s opening weekend has arrived, meaning the half-dozen NAmateurs within shall toil (or, rather a quartet with O’Reilly still with the big club. (When he gets returned, will he fly by night?) And it seems like Akey won’t return to Barrie until next week.). London actually opposes Flint tonight, marking the first of several occasions this season that could see four NAmateurs battle each other.
Some of these prospects will be making memories by debuting as Oilers prospects, including O’Reilly, Clattenburg, Nicholl and Wakely.
In the end, five NAmateurs are on the ice tonight, as Berry is in action too.
London (just Nicholl until O’Reilly returns) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
North Bay (Wakely) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Granthem [sic] time.
It’s fun to hear that Hamblin is being compared to a LH version of Ryan. I might add he’s only 13 years younger. He can also play wing.
Everyone is in full panic mode over our second pairing defence especially the RD. Deep breath everyone we are only 4 games into preseason and still have not seen one game with Emberson and Nurse playing together.Lets all just relax and then comment after about the 5th regular season game. There is only one opinion I would love to hear from on the state of the defence and that person is Paul Coffey .Maybe some reporter can ask him for an interview.
Time is ticking.
Why haven’t we seen Nurse and Emberson playing together? Because Nurse is hurt. How will he be? Full recovery, or 60% , will it cost points? Or will Emberson sink because Nurse is not 100% and we lose performance in both players? Don’t know.
I would prefer to be prepared over panic. Surely they know if it is going to be Kemp or Stetcher no?
If it is going to be a full gaggle of tryouts, I would sign Tyson Barrie to hold down the spot until someone emerges from the try outs and takes the spot away from him.
I want to see some youth arrive and surprise, but if it doesn’t happen soon, Id feel much better with Barrie there. Strong smooth skater, good with the puck, calm presence. Oilers have more info than we do, I hope they are confident in their plan.
You are not dealing in facts only anxiety driven speculation Winchester Not good for your blood pressure
Nurse was on the ice from all the informal skates and has been a full participant on all the practices. He’s not playing tomorrow but Matty speculates he’ll play on Monday.
With Doughty out and the Kings DOA why panic? With Demko done and a walking injury bug all year why worry? Nucks and Knights are the only playoff comp and both have way tougher early schedules and the Nucks don’t have goalies or a good defense.
I too think trading Ceci was perplexing given the fellas on offer and no Emberson is not a clear and obvious replacement but they really really really didn’t want to be in LTIR this year. Fair enough.
Plus you have a second line that’s probably the best in the league and a 3rd that’s going to surprise with a bit more offensive jam. Crafty vets with something to prove is a fine bet. Lots of pixels spent pointing to the WCF and SCF fancies for that 3rd trio. Yes sure, but not exactly replicable across an 82 game regular season. If one can highlight the downside based on fancies, you could also admit there might be an upside against teams that aren’t Dallas and Florida. Especially if Janmark and Brown see even modest positive regressions to their shooting percentages.
Urgency is fine, but it can easily spill over into panic. There is no reason for the Oilers to panic. Damn fine hockey club they are.
I think Vegas is in trouble. They lost two top six players and replaced them with very meh. Olafsson playing on the first line is yuck.
Nah.
Vegas finished with 98 points last season, 6 behind the Oilers, despite having a HUGE number of injuries.
With an average number of injuries and full seasons of Hanifin and Hertl, who was injured when they acquired him, they should be better.
“They should be better”
Says the guy about the team who has had multiple players go on LTIR only to conveniently return for playoffs through the LTIR process which you said could not be abused.
You criticized Arvidsson for having an injury bug, but seem to be okay with Vegas, a team where most players seem to have the injury bug, to not be injured this year and do better.
Hmmm… I wonder why that is…
I think we all know why that is. 😎
The hockey talk on here is informative & entertaining.
The personality profiles are the educational aspect that is endlessly fascinating.
They have the best #1-#6D in the league.
I’ll be disappointed if they give Carrick some reps with an NHL partner (i.e. Kulak) and not Phil Kemp.
I have given up on this organization giving Kemp any opportunity. I have been a big supporter of his since he was a young teen. I hope someone like the Rangers grab him and give him a shot. He has done nothing but everything asked of him and he still gets no love.
To be fair, he’s rarely come to camp and forced the issue.
Basically, he needs a Brandon Davidson like camp performance.
He had some good camps.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZlB-Iqg758
And let’s not forget one of the most solid D in the Bake.
I’m aware, I’ve definitely been rooting for him since he was drafted.
But he hasn’t exactly taken anyone’s job. That’s what he needs to do.
They bring in other teams retreads instead of giving the guy who has done everything they ask a chance. No wonder Broberg bolted.
There’s a reason why not 1 of Hollands draft picks plays for the Oilers.
Kemp was drafted before Holland arrived I believe?
You are correct Kemp was a Peter pick He’s a Vanilla type quiet looking D he very well could of found his niche like Desi did last year given the opportunity. I do think his ship just like Lavoie has sailed right on by without given a fair opportunity.
How does a true stay at home defensive d-man force an issue exhibition when he’s never given a game with another NHL d-man and a semblance of an NHL roster?
Honest question, I don’t know how.
LOL I thought he plays RW.
I made my post before I read this. Hell has just frozen over.
Definitely a fair question.
A defensive-defenseman doesn’t typically need a high end QoT like a two way or offensive-defenseman does. All he has to do is be an eraser out there. Be the kind of guy you can grab a beer when he’s got the puck (because nothing bad will happen), and that speaks volumes. Smart hockey men will invariably take note.
Effectiveness does not necessarily mean flashy, especially for a shutdown D.
The way a young shutdown D makes a team is by NOT trying to force the issue. It is if he is able to deliver solid defense with one of the established defensemen.
|”Forcing the issue” is being invisible playing with Kulak or Nurse.
I see Kemp as a RH version of Brandon Davidson.
All he needs to do is make a few decent passes, some solid board battles, good gaps at the line, box out plays in the crease, and he’ll get noticed on merit.
I want him to succeed, but he’s not showing well. And that’s a shame.
He’ll be a Group VI UFA at the end of the season unless he plays 70 games this season. I don’t imagine a waiver claim but I guess you never know.
I think you have to accept that the team thinks they know what Kemp is from him being in the organization all these years.
When you say that TC doesn’t give opportunities I agree to the extent that it applies to guys they have watched in the AHL through their development.
That information is probably valued more highly than a couple of weeks in TC because for the bottom half of the roster consistency is the attribute they are most interested in and that comes from watching a season or more rather than a couple of weeks
I know you probably won’t like or agree with this but I do believe this is what influences their decision making at this time of year.
I don’t disagree with the premise but note that this player is new to the coach and to the GM (and Jackson as well).
But not to Gretzky who they rely on to inform them on Bakersfield.
Is Jackson even in Edmonton for TC? I haven’t seen anything that mentions him.
Fair point on Gretzky – maybe he’s sandbagging Kemp in the meetings as he plans to have him named Condors’ captain?
I presume that Jackson is NOT in town (but I really have no idea) – not needed given his job.
I think the wheels have been rolling on this on all the radio/online shows and pods, etc. The right side D is the biggest topic of conversation.
I think the general consensus is that an upgrade between now and the 2nd week of march if likely needed but, at the same time, the rest of the roster is enough to draft a potential hole at 2RD and a bit of a downgrade at 3RD for a while without catastrophic events.
Lets not forget, the team was a top 10 team for goals against (a bit higher) after the coaching change from last season and, during that run of solid team defence, many were crying for Ceci to be removed from the team – i.e. 2RD was a problem.
How much of a downgrade in team performance will the following changes cause:
Ceci to Emberson
Deharnais to Stecher/Brown/Kemp
Broberg wasn’t on this team during its success last regular season.
How much of an effect would a “better Nurse” have? Its reasonably probably that Nurse will play closer to historical norms.
Historically, Ceci is certainly better than Emberson, Stecher, Brown and Kemp.
And how much better would Ceci be with a better Nurse? And the better forward group?
It comes down to the money. They have four players there for the price of Ceci.
The deadline will be the time to shore up the 2RD position.
If Emberson isn’t up to the task (I’m still agnostic on that happening). Need to see some games to find out. Nurse being up to speed would also be useful in any such evaluation.
Legitimate 2RD deadline targets:
Whoa, can I ask your definition of “legitmate”?
Firstly, I don’t think the Caps are looking to trade Calrsson, in particular prior to Ovi getting 41 more goals and, also, even taking away this season, what is the cost of the caps retaining half of $8MM for two seasons so the Oilers have a hope of fitting him in next season?
Legitimate being a player who’s likely to improve the team upon arrival.
I didn’t necessarily say likely.
I said legit.
Andersson isn’t likely to come here, either. I could have included my perennial favourite Zub, but he’s going nowhere.
Just looking to stoke some conversation as people seem to think there are zero options for a worthwhile 2RD to acquire.
I think there are plenty, to varying degrees of availability.
I should add… the players I listed are the established options.
Others have chimed in since with some interesting waiver wire options.
Who, while viable, are more like different shades of Emberson and Stetcher and Brown to me.
Just say no to Rasmus Ristolainen. His fancies aren’t even that good in a “rebound” year while being heavily sheltered in PHI. Term too long, contract too high, results too far from reasonable. There’s just nothing to suggest he’ll finally put it all together at, checks notes, 30 years old (next month).
i also do not want RR. However, i dont think its fair to say he was heavily sheltered. 29% against elites compared to say 33% in 16 minutes of ice time is a difference of 36 seconds a night. If he were playing elites 33% of the time that would be similar to most second pair dmen. 36 seconds a night less is not screaming heavily sheltered. that being said he is too chaotic for me and as such is a poor partner for Nurse who sadly needs a good partner to be a good Dman
42.2% TOI against middle competition screams sheltered. Down 2.7% against elites from his arrival in PHI, and >11% on average from his days in BUF. He’s cooked.
>55% ozone starts is suggestive of a defenseman who’s not trusted in the defensive zone.
doesnt scream sheltered at all ..again if he plays 16 minutes a night, if he played 33% against elites and 36% minutes against middle that is less than a minutes per night difference…you are going to evaluate a player on 50 seconds or so a night? seems like splitting hairs to me. Its not like the qualcomp at Puckiq is infallible, this difference is about what I would expect their margin for error to be…not a dealbreaker imo. That being said he was a big minus his whole career and I agree he’s not the fit given the chaotic nature of his game. seems like a right shot Nurse so not a good partner for him.
RR toi reduction year over year suggests he is being sheltered by his coaches. His coach no longer trusts him to play big minutes. He would be a decent 3RHD but he is too expensive for that role.
How many people have actually watched him play?
He’s been on awful teams since he arrived. He’s nowhere near as bad as people portray.
Have any clips?
The link shows a 56%DFF both overall and against elites. +6% and +8% relative to team. That’s very good, isn’t it?
You are, of course, correct. Admittedly, I was focusing on his diminished deployment, and the fact that he was still underwater with GF and enjoying heavy OZ starts. Especially compared to his tenure in BUF.
I don’t see him as a viable 2RD with Nurse. Perhaps I’m missing something obvious?
I don’t know that you are (so likely you are not, I guess).
As LMHF#1 said though… tbh I think it’s all worth quoting:
His numbers relative to team even if Buffalo were not at all bad. I’m genuinely a bit confused how he got as bad a reputation as he did.
And I truly don’t know because I haven’t watched him enough. My feeling from looking at the numbers, and from how his coaches have used him and the contract he has, is that he truly isn’t ‘near as bad as people portray’.
His TOI/deployment the last couple of years is a definite concern, but he had injuries this past year so perhaps that’s a partial mitigator.
My take is that he very well could be a viable 2RD. I don’t have enough confidence in it that I’d make a trade if I was GM, but I do think he’s very likely a better bet than his reputation would suggest.
This is eminently fair.
I wonder if it’s got more to do with a misfit for style than for competence. Kind of like KRusty.
All I know is, with that contract I would MUCH rather test drive the likes of Provorov from the trade deadline to free agency rather than roll the dice on RR.
Ya, coach said he wants essentially all of the “locks” including the likes of McDavid, Bouchard, Ek, Drai, etc. to play 4 games each which means 3 of the next for for those guys. He said he wants the lines to get at least 2 games each.
I’d like to see Philp between Podz and Perry for a game – i anticipate we might but we haven’t seen Ryan in the middle between those two guys and that likely gets 2 games per the coach’s words.
I’d like to see Phil Kemp play with Brett Kulak, I’m not sure I will.
I’d like to see Raphael Lavoie with Henrique and Brown, again, i don’t think I will.
Do we know how serious Lavoie injury is?
I think they pretty much know what Ryan & Perry bring to the table. Perry will need some games to prepare for a long season.
LBI is all we know but he was expected back skating for today.
With that said, I don’t know if he was on the ice today or not:
The above doesn’t mean he didn’t skate as the likes of Philp and O’Riley, that is, those not incumbents for the opening lines, are not listed.
Was Stecher skating?
I hope Podz can keep up with those two speedsters.
I’d rather see Philp between Hamblin & Podkolzin.
Absolutely yes, this should be happening.
Imagine that – we miss Cody Ceci already
They don’t miss his contract, that’s for sure.
His contract wasn’t the problem contract
His contract off the books relieved a lot of pressure.
We’re missing all three of Desharnais, Broberg and Ceci.
I don’t think it’s time to panic guys.
3-9-1 is the traditional time.
I believe we have enough to cover the 3rd. pairing, but the 2nd.? Unless K.K. knows a lot more about Emberson and thinks he will work with Nurse. Still, we need a nasty Dman who can play a regular shift. Jason Smith or Dave Manson type. Maybe someone will come available in season, but until then, this may be a real crapshoot.
We replaced Ceci at 3 RHD. But that’s a big gaping hole at 2 RHD.
If this team gets of to a bad start we’re gonna see a lot of panic.
Really should have kept Jeff Skinners money to address that problem
Kept Skinner’s money, paid Broberg to play 3LD and traded Kulak and Holloway for a 2RD.
Parayko has been on the market for eons.
They knew Broberg didn’t want to be here. I’m wondering why they didn’t trade him.
I sincerely doubt they didn’t try to trade Broberg for value.
With all the rumours/info that came out surrounding the offer sheet I think we definitely would have heard if there had been an attempt to trade him. I’m with leadfarmer on this one. This is where they screwed up after they screwed up not trading Kulak to make room for him.
Perhaps.
Could be one of those things that got overlooked in the C-suite transition.
Yeah..that is puzzling but he may have changed his stance if the Oilers made it clear they had a designated spot fir him on his natural side.
I can only imagine your commentary if the Oilers traded for Parayko.
“He is old, slow, and has a brutal contract”.
HH if the Oilers were looking to trade Broberg:
“Good luck trading a unproven meandering D for anything of value. No teams who are serious about making the playoffs have room for a player like him, as they already have a glut of promising D in their system”
HH after Broberg leaves the Oilers:
“Broberg is a Norris candidate and is an excellent value contract. He is a steal at $4.5×2 and St. Louis kicks the can down the road where they will pay probably $8 million a year for him since he will be their #1D”
Wow what a glowing report for an unproven meandering defenseman. I guess we’ll see if in fact he truly is a Norris candidate and if that contract is a steal. If he’s that good, they’ll need to pay him $10-$12M. Oilers should have traded him for peanuts, no room for a defenseman like that on this roster.
Who do you think could have been had for $3M who could fill that spot?
I ask because to me the problem was not so much money as availability.
And, yes, I had Broberg pencilled in there like everybody else but he wasn’t really the answer so much as ‘ the best we can come up with at the moment’.
In my version they needed to move Kulak and Ceci and go shopping with their money. That might have enticed somebody.
I am very worried about RHD but I also do not see many good options to improve the position at the moment.
The team has no cap space and few assets that one would want/can trade to improve RHD.
Agreed, agreed and agreed
This team could easily have the cap space. They can get to within a few dollar of the cap and place Kane on LTIR and have apx $5MM.
Needing to find that $5MM to activiate Kane is a problem 5-6 months away, if at all.
I suspect management will give it some time to see if there is a major problem, at least in to the second week of exhibition season, which he hasn’t even hit yet.
Ty Emberson just played 1RD with the team’s 3LD with all but no NHL help against a playoff team icing 8/10 of its NHL roster including most of its top forward and d-men.
Are we really analyzing Emberson just being just OK in the game to a fault?
“The organization is using calm verbal, but this team is going to lose games because RH defense unless there is a recognition of the problem. A curious approach for a team that went 2-7-1. Maybe signing Leon Draisaitl was the goal for this season. Huh.”
Its become somewhat clear to me that management believes the oilers are a shoo-in playoff team, and are willing to lose games early in the season to see what they have in Emberson et al, and address any deficiencies via trade, acquiring a rental with cap retention.
Not the worst idea, but I don’t think expecting Emberson et al to cover the bet is reasonable. I think we’ll probably see Nurse-Kulak a lot in the first half of the season. It’s a better bet than trading for Griffin Reinhart but the Oilers have made an unreasonable bet and it leaves their team exposed early in the season.
I do think Bowman sees this year laying the foundation for a better/deeper team next year once he’s gotten McDavid and Draisaitl both under contract.
They haven’t played a regular season game and I already miss Broberg.
They are probably looking around at RHD, but are there really any available right now worth the bother? I don’t see any, unless it’s a trade, and it’s pretty early for that, and they are in short supply. Maybe after 30 games when the season picture is clearing up for teams, and of course the deadline
Two of the three RHD they brought in have game, if not perfect. I don’t think teams lose multiple games because of one player or position, if it’s not goalie. Last season was a wide scale collapse at the start, and some injuries. Stecher getting healthy is key though, so they can sit one if they are really having a hard time. I hope the medicos are on this infection and getting it cleared up
The team will lose games, and maybe most of those can be pinned on RHD, but this is still a damn good team. It’s better than last year, despite the weakness at RHD.
We’re probably going to see how Travis Dermott plays on the right side very soon if Stecher is unable to participate. I would have to say if Dermott can play effectively on his opposite side, as we’ve been told, he will be the best option for 7d. I’m not sure Stecher can play LD and his status seems to be up in the air.
Injuries will be a major story as the season unfolds.
On the other hand, slumps will happen too. Maybe just once, it would be nice to win a trade and be on the new destination side of a second opinion. That’s probably the best way to extract value out of a trade with little in the way of assets to spend.
Klim Kostin says hi.
Sure, and Maroon then Perron before that.
Not much else for company on that tail of the distribution of trades, is there?
Three trades in, what, nine or ten years?
This management team has been far more active than Holland ever was. All deals have been free of obvious poor decision making. They even extracted extra out of Armstrong
If injuries become a problem I think they will do the best that can be done at the time. They are showing a pretty clear line in what they value, and it seems certain skill sets are a part for D, including more puck skills, assertiveness and mobility. Even if who they can get are not ideal, this approach is more likely to work than just ‘long’, which Holland seem to prefer first for D
For example Des worked his butt off to get better, and is very self confident, but what I saw from him was tweener (skating and puck handling), and playoffs are too fast for him as it goes deeper. He also didn’t use his reach as much which was his only advantage because he would get called too often. He also was tied for most GA on PK being 3rd in TOI, so really I see why they stopped using him
Sure… but how does all that relate to how Bowman and Co. are going to approach the assumed hole at 2RD once injuries/slumps take hold around the league prior to and including the trade deadline?
I guess the point of my post was, I’d love to see a Gernat+ for Maroon compared to a Schaefer++ for Ekholm this time around.
Do you see that trade out there, or are we likely paying full freight once again?
I think the hardest piece to get for value is always the last one you need because even a blind squirrel of a GM can see that he is making you the cup favourite by making that trade.
Yeah.
Like Lowe asking Burke if he wants to win the Cup, and not fielding CFP around the league.
Still bitter about that.
He’s a fantastic deadline re-acquisition. Contract is up at end of the year and he brings what we need in the bottom 6 for the playoffs. Bring him home.
I appreciate this has been discussed for weeks, but what are actual RHD acquisition options available at the moment? I feel Jackson/Bowman are slightly hamstrung until the season starts/waiver wire/injury statuses are known. We just don’t have the cap space or trade capital to fill the hole with a known entity.
Insofar as training camp and pre-season mattering, it helps tremendously in developing these young men and establishing a recall list. Setting our prospects up for success is a massive part of organizational development.
How would recognition of the problem help?
And what leads you to believe they do not recognize the problem?
And what leads you to believe they do not recognize the problem?
The defense deployed in Winnipeg. The Oilers are showing the same urgency in camp as Dallas Eakins did; it’s a tell. They aren’t worried enough to alter plans.
How would recognition of the problem help?
Trades can be made in preseason. Nurse isn’t playing, Stecher is hurt. The top three blue in expected goals five-on-five so far in preseason are Ekholm, Bouchard and Emberson. I think it’s reasonable to wonder who we see 4-5-6 opening night.
At the very least, dress stronger options in Winnipeg. There is urgency here, I believe. I am surprised by the general indifference among Oilers fans.
Trading now would be trading from a place of weakness. How many teams are going to trade a top 4 dman in preseason without an overpay? I believe the Oilers are doing the smart play by biding their time until players become available and presumably cheaper in both acquisition cost and cap hit (with accrued space).
Kulak is clearly one of the 4,5,6.
Ek/Bouch
Nurse/Xx
Kulak/Embers
They’re missing Nurses eventual partner or Kulak depending on how young Emberson performs.
I once again bang the drum for Winnipeg to suck and acquire Pionk until next summer.
The wildcards are Stecher and Nurse’s health. If they were healthy, I don’t see the need for panic. But they aren’t yet
If healthy I don’t think the D group is worse than it was. But then player types like Ceci and Des aren’t my cup of tea. Things are too up in the air to know, an they don’t have a lot of cap to work with. I just don’t see them trading Skinner or Arvi to make room for a D, and Skinner has a full movement clause
Pionk is likely the best available deadline deal. We both independently came up with this target over the off season, and I’m here to amplify your rhythm.
Maybe we’ll see Kemp beside Nurse.
Nurse not being ready for the season hadn’t really occurred to me, but you are right that it’s getting late early (fair, my indifference is showing).
And if Nurse May not be ready that would certainly increase the urgency for a trade.
I think trade is the only alteration of plan that would make any difference though. I’m not sure what other helpful outcome could come from more worry (maybe you don’t agree?).
In terms of trade, I assume they are biding their time looking for the ‘right’ trade rather than an urgent one. That makes sense to me since Ristolainen is the most plausible option I’ve seen and that option has been panned almost universally.
So I’m not sure what else they can do or what a different lineup in Winnipeg could/would have achieved.
They have 4 more games and I’d expect the NHL D to each be playing 2-3 of those. Hopefully that includes Nurse.
Beyond that, they have 6 Dmen who were every day NHLers last season (including Emberson and Stecher and the 4 returning Oiler regulars) and 2 more (Dermott and Brown) who were #6/7 types.
They’re pretty well covered aside from the 2RD spot, and that doesn’t have a simple solution, unfortunately.
All that said, maybe you are right and a lack of urgency will do unnecessary damage. I hope you’re wrong, but we’ll have to wait and see.
It’s too early to be looking for trades. Teams are evaluating what they have. I mean there’re four more exhibition games to play.
It’s not about wins & losses in exhibition play.
We’re going to see more of the NHL roster in the next four exhibition games. How does the saying go “calm your pectorals”.
I still break out in a cold sweat thinking of Eakins lollygagging with his defence selection in October of 2014, starting the season with 8 D on the roster still in tryout mode.
Game 3 at Los Angeles, 19-year-old junior Darnell Nurse gets his first NHL game, 26-year-old minor pro Brad Hunt gets his sixth, & Edmonton’s top all-around D Jeff Petry gets a seat in the pressbox. Oilers get demolished by the Stanley Cup champs 6-1, & Petry’s fate as an Oiler is sealed all in one go. 🤬🤯
I still wonder how much was the Red Wine Summit playing into that. The glory teams had some tough and mean D, and I think that Petry was more a smooth skill type and wouldn’t bang put the sites on him. They always seemed to want players to be something other than what what they were, and rewarded low ability energy guys beyond sense
I’m surprised that nobody this morning has mentioned the idea of splitting Bouchard and Ekholm as a solution should Emberson be found wanting in the 2RD spot.
To me the obvious short term solution would be to pair Emberson with on ice coach Ekholm while letting Bouchard – Nurse play together.
I know I will get pummelled by some for suggesting the following but to me Nurse has always played better with bigger minutes. It seems to make him do less running around trying to do it all when he knows he needs to conserve energy. Makes him play a simpler game that better suits him. jmo
Does this not help make LT’s point? Break-up the #1 pairing, one of the best pairings in the league because RD….
LT calling for a panic trade…. before the waiver wire barrage….?????
Coach said that he plans to play 2 of his pairings in both of the next two games and the last two games will essentially have the opening night lineup but for maybe 1 d-man and 1-2 forwards that are on the bubble.
We know very well what the first week of exhibition means – that goes for BOTH good and bad – for team play and all established NHL players – almost everything should be disregarded in those respects.
Agreed. I’ve watched this team win the exhition series only to be discussing draft picks by mid November.
No, I don’t think it does.
There isn’t a single person on this site who has not identified 2RD as a problem to be solved so that is hardly new.
Nurse isn’t going anywhere any time soon. So that is hardly news either. That he is on the ice for practices and is expected to play the last two exhibition games is a bit of concerning/comforting news but it hasn’t changed from the first day of TC so that isn’t really news either.
Emberson being brought in to play 2RD with only 30 games experience in the NHL is obviously concerning but also didn’t just pop up as new information this week.
Brown is turning out to be pretty much what some of said from the beginning but I refuse to get too excited about it until I hear that Stetcher won’t be ready for the regular season
So here is my question to you.
What is more important to the team:
A. Having one of the best pairings in the league on the ice for 25 minutes a game knowing that one of those two is now 34 years old and risking wearing him out before the playoffs?
B. Having a lesser 1st pairing but with guys who have the youth and stamina to play 23 minutes a game while pairing your best technical dman with the young guy to see if he can on ice coach him up to 2RD level by the TD while mitigating his mistakes better than Nurse would so the team knows what it can or has to do?
I choose ‘B’. To me it is a no brainer considering that it can be reversed on a moment’s notice if it doesn’t work.
Yeah, talk of that has died down lately. I guess in part because the coach is clearly not leaning that way.
I’d note also that Nurse-Emberson have not yet been shown wanting, despite the considerable concern that’s been voiced.
I agree with you about Nurse being better with more minutes. Likewise it makes sense to be mindful of Ekholm’s usage.
We’ll see though. Ekholm-Bouchard have been such a good pair. And it’s at least theoretically possible to ease off of Ekholm’s minutes a bit even without changing the pairs.
Yeah. I get the attraction to go with what has worked but for me TC is the time to at least take a peak at options and see if there isn’t another way to go. If the first pairing is making hay and the second pairing is drowning how long before opposing coaches take note and start exploiting home ice last changes even more?
I’ve been noting that Bouchard has essentially proven that he can definitely drive a pairing without Ekholm (and without Nurse) – the numbers are spectacular (and its 287 minutes without Ekholm).
I’ve haven’t been fully advocating for it but I have noted the clear option of having Bouch and Ek anchor pairs and the further potential to have Nurse anchor another pairing.
With that said, as you mention, the coach is clearly going to run with that pairing to start so lets see how the 2nd pairing works.
We currently have zero useful analysis of Emberson as 2RD with the Oilers. How was he supposed to succeed last game, playing 1RD, with his partner being the teams 5D, and they have all but no NHL support and were playing against a playoff team from last year that was 85% their opening lineup. Given those circumstances, despite his bad pinch and chanse on one goal against, he showed well but, really, he hasn’t had the opportunity to shown anything in these 4 games (or the two he’s played).
For me defensive pairings are always about balance.
I don’t see the need for Ekholm and Bouchard to be out there for the whole game wearing out a 34 year old. And, of course, all six dmen should have some time and experience playing with everybody just in case of injuries so I am still hoping to see a Nurse – Bouchard pairing at some point before the season starts.
Yeah that’s fair for sure. That’s much more difficult with Nurse injured and (presumably) trying build some chemistry with a new partner as soon as he’s healthy.
But yes, perhaps Ekholm-Emberson should have gotten a spin during camp to see how it looked and felt (there’s still time, but no indication it’s on the radar).
I suppose they’d probably first need to play some minutes together, to be eligible to considered wanting (or succeeding). Maybe I’m being pedantic.
That was kind of my point though. There’s been a lot of speculation and prediction that there will be a problem with the 2nd pair, but we really don’t know because we have not seen the 2nd pair.
A bet has been made by the organization (with something of an out in terms of deadline cap space and trade options). It would be prudent to evaluate that bet before trying to make a trade to solve the speculated problem.
Agreed, and I’ve posted similarly elsewhere.
We don’t know what we don’t know, until we know.
It’s realistically a low cost gambit. Can always revert and find a trade if necessary.
The alternative is establishing the Ekholm Finishing School for Young Defensemen who Want to Learn to Defend Good.
People balk because “best d-pair in the league” as if it’s not an in-game option.
I’d rather use both assets to their strengths.
Plus, Nurse and Bouchard looked good years ago in a small sample. Maybe it’s legit.
Pretty much how I see it. I don’t think Ekholm – Bouchard are going to forget how to play together if they have a different partner for a few games.
They still could split Ek & Bouch.
That is what I am waiting to see.
There might be a tight game here or there that is lost because Brown or Emberson gets beaten wide or they can’t anticipate a Nurse walkabout. But I will be curious to see how well such a dynamite top 6 can effectively shelter that pairing, if these forwards close the gap on the back check and play committed, I’m not too concerned RH defence will even cost them much in the way of regular seasons standings, and they can upgrade at the deadline. Out-scoring, again, seems to be the strategy for now (fun!) but they’ve left themselves the space to kick this can.
You’re not wrong, that’s going to be a primary factor in the effectiveness of team defense.
It’s also an evergreen issue.