The Edmonton Oilers had a good night Saturday, getting some answers in badly needed areas. It’s important to remember the Oilers organization rarely makes an outrageous roster move at this time of the year, so names like Noah Philp, Raphael Lavoie and Travis Dermott may start the season with the AHL Bakersfield Condors. Last night was encouraging, with many miles to go.
ABOUT LAST NIGHT
Noah Philp scored a goal, drew a penalty and won six of seven on the draw. I would have him in my opening night lineup, not sure Kris Knoblauch is going to feel comfortable fading some of the veterans so that Philp’s debut in the NHL may have to wait. He’s NHL ready. His line, with Lane Pederson and Matt Savoie, owned a 39 percent expected goal share. Philp’s the NHL player on that line.
Raphael Lavoie scored a goal, had five shots and looked his best on a night when the Condors received what is likely their final chance to make the squad. Lavoie played so well he might receive another game. We’ll see.
Sam O’Reilly led Oilers forwards in PK time on ice! Jesus, Mary and Joseph! Knoblauch’s training camp has mostly been textbook, and I can’t see the club keeping O’Reilly. That said, they are putting him in situations that suggest they are evaluating him as a possible roster player. I’m 80 percent sure he gets sent out. It was 100 percent a week ago.
Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard were golden, as always. In 16:15 at five-on-five they were 60 percent expected goals. Ekholm was the offensive star of the game, going 1-2-3 on the night. Ken Holland’s best trade.
Ben Gleason and Phil Kemp played together, it’s a possible pairing in Bakersfield. In 9:37, they were 1-0 goals, 4-5 shots and 32 percent expected goals. Both could be recalls this season.
Travis Dermott and Troy Stecher both played well in 9:36 five-on-five. A 60 percent expected goal share and a clean house, I’ll guess both men play in the NHL with the Oilers this season. I have Stecher as a ‘certain Oiler’ and Josh Brown as ‘uncertain’ on my depth chart. I was asked about that in the comments section, and will tell you why.
For me, Stecher is a player who can play in the heart of the game. Up 2-1, final minute, tied, or even a goal behind. I don’t see Josh Brown as that player. In fact, Brown brings roster value in a narrow view, like Sam Gagner a year ago.
Don’t get me wrong. You can see why the Oilers want Brown on the roster from a game like last night. A team gets running around less often when fear enters the chat. Brown brings intimidation. However, he also has to be able to play capably at five-on-five and penalty kill.
For me, Brown is the seventh defenseman. So, the competition, Dermott, et al, are chasing Brown, not Stecher.
The next step? Getting Nurse-Emberson and Kulak-Stecher reps. Lots and lots of them.
CERTAIN AND UNCERTAIN OILERS
THE DISTANT BELLS
I’ve moved Lane Pederson to the distant bells, he had a chance in camp but the fourth line center job will belong to someone else this fall.
New for The Athletic: How is the Edmonton Oilers’ defence shaping up in preseason?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5800616/2024/09/29/edmonton-oilers-defence-nurse-preseason/
Spam O’Really had an impressive camp. Hopefully he lights it up with the Knights this year.
Spunk O’Roosty would of been one of the 5 forwards the Oilers would deploy 12 years ago with the camp he’s had.
It remains to be seen how the return of Spong O’Pratty will affect Willem Knicker’s playing time.
I really wish they didn’t sign Perry.
He is a jinx in the finals. If we lose Lavoie to keep Perry I will be sad.
Hopefully Action Jackson and Cover Up Stan realize Lavoie > Perry at this point their respective careers.
RNH McD Hyman
Skinner Drai Arvi
Janmark Rico Brown
Pod Philp Ryan
Kane/Perry
Ek Bouch
Nurse Emb
Kulak Stecher
Dermott
Skinner/Pics
Start as you mean to go……Philp as 4C with Ryan/Perry sharing 4RW.
Having Philp on the roster, in addition to Perry and Ryan, would take the available cap space down below $200 and crater the daily accrual (i.e. keeping that all season would allow for an acquisition of a $1MM player as opposed to a $4.5MM player – apx).
They MAY keep an extra healthy forward but it wouldn’t propagate the words of Bowman re: cap accrual to make in-season acquisitions.
I know but I would do it for at least the first 10 games. If Philp performs well then he needs to stay so he is 100% ready for the playoffs. Perry is odd guy out IMHO – would prefer Lavoie on the roster – but we can see how it goes for the first 10 games.
Podkolzin is making the team. There can really be no doubt there. On merit and the body of work since joining the organization, Philp should be centering the 4th line. I would really hate to lose Lavoie. He looked to be very close to NHL ready last year and looks as good or better this year. Come on Knob, give us a 4th line of Podkolzin-Philp-Lavoie next exhibition game so we can see if there is any chemistry there. Those three together deserve a look.
RH shot center. Great on the dot. Good size and plays a responsible 2-way game. Goes top shelf in close last night showing real scoring acumen. If the objective is to win games, that guy makes my opening day roster – full stop.
Kris Kristofferson (1936-2024) has passed away at the age of 88:
– Husband
– Father
– Country music icon
– Actor
– Army Ranger
RIP
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcPW6R9yRzE
Sunday Morning Coming Down
This is from the Johnny Cash Christmas special in 1978
Crap. Saw him at Devil’s Lake Corral many, many years ago.
This’ll make it dusty in here . . .
https://youtu.be/bw94RzY1Y7g
Beautiful
Not a total waste of skin, you’ve been a bit better lately, keep trending that way! ❤️❤️❤️
I see the Blues have placed on waivers one Hunter Skinner.
Put in a claim and complete the trifecta?
The Blues also waived a Huge McGinger?
On Brown vs Stecher, it feels like the Oilers will put Brown ahead of Stecher as a 3RD a Desharnais replacement. Currently both players have 36:12 in TOI this preseason.
Regarding similarity to Desharnais, Brown blocks a lot of shots. He had 85 blocks in 51 games, which effectively placed him first on the Coyotes at 6.78 blocks/60. His shot-blocking on the PK (13.69/60 for Brown vs 6.77 for Stecher) lead to better unblocks shot metrics and expected goals than Stecher last season. It feels like the Oilers are going to try to turn Brown into Desharnais on the PK, and that he will land at 3RD ahead of Stecher because of it.
How can you jump to that conclusion?
coach said no more cuts until Tuesday but they must have changed their mind:
1) Dineen and Carrick on waivers
2) Griffith and Savoie assigned to Condors
3) O’Riley back to London.
Not sure why AHL contract Griffith wasn’t part of the last round but this makes sense.
not sure why Drake is outlasting Savoie but the Condors open camp tomorrow so that’s probably why.
I’ll be surprised if O’Riley doesn’t sign his ELC before he plays for the Knights next Friday.
Kemp is still hanging in.
Hanging in to fill a spot as they’ll only want to play 2 real pairs per game – lets see if he gets a rep with Kulak.
Please spell O’Reilly correctly, not sure if you’re being petulant at this point, but if it continues we’ll have no other choice but to believe so, or maybe you just can’t be bothered to read other posts that aren’t yours, either way, it’s not hard, I hope as a lawyer in real time you can get names right. Kind of important.
lol why are people so outraged about misspelled names lately? Misspelling names is a time honored tradition in the comments section.
Jessie Poolparty
Leon Drysaddle
Sam O’Really
And the thousand variations of Borgan Rafferly
It’s true – it’s tradition.
Balderdash.
People still routinely spell it Conner. Give me a break.
Drives me uckfing nuts.
Try harder. Don’t intentionally be lazy.
Spell check. Quick web search.
It’s not hard.
Come correct.
Be precise.
Are you talking about Conner Brown?
Corey Perry giving a big “I-don’t-give-an-eff-about-training-camp” severely impacts the ability of younger players to show the coach what they have when forced to play with him.
It has been a pathetic embarrassing display from a so-called “leader”.
What on earth?
Perry has played 2 games, has 4 shots on goal and one primary assist.
At 5v5 he’s been on for 1 GF and 1GA. His SF% is 61%. His xGF% is 55%. Embarrassing?
I guess you have found your target for this year. One of them anyway.
Skinner is the other target as he cost the team Broberg and Deharnais.
Godot is in the business of storytelling not analysis based on facts.
If Emberson becomes the solution for second pairing and barring injuries, what would the trade deadline look like? Those 2 St. Louis draft picks would be great to keep.
They would only have to shore up depth which should only cost low picks or non prime prospects
I say you still shore up defense and possibly goaltending depth.
Injury cover.
One more stat from the weekend:
Nicholl went a combined 16-of-27 (59.3%) on the dot.
Will be down to 15F, 9D and 3G after Tuesday’s cuts.
Shouldn’t be too hard to guess assuming the injured don’t count.
McDavid – Nuge – Hyman
Draisaitl – Skinner – Arvidsson
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Ryan – Philp – Lavoie – Perry – Savoie?
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Emberson
Kulak – Stetcher
Dermott – Brown
Gleason
Skinner
Pickard
Rodrique
Pretty much it but, for some reason, Drake over Savoie and I bet ya its Kemp over Gleason.
I think the Savoie cut today was because Condors camp opens tomorrow and they’ll want him there for the full camp as its much shorter than the NHL camp.
And Rodrique is still here because Pickard is out for at least a few days otherwise I think he would have headed south as well.
I think the plan was to have 3G here right to the end – no need to have both NHL goalies dress for all of the last three games.
Do players sent down actually have to report to Bakersfield? Or can they just stay in Edmonton and travel with the team and not play games?
If they can travel with the team, why not send Josh Brown down on paper, but have him hang around the team. If there is an injury, they could “call him up” and he’s ready to go.
Then go with 13 or 14 forwards on the roster, including Kane, and 6 defenseman. That way we could keep both Perry and Lavoie on the roster
I don’t think players are allowed to practice with the team though.
I was having the same thought about Perry though … aka – sending him down to the Bake at the start of the season on a “conditioning assignment” … he continues to work on his own, gets some some extra rest after the short summer (and after playing a lot of hockey for the past few years). . Lavoie gets a 10-15 game audition, and Perry comes back when someone goes down with an injury.
There are very strict rules regarding sending players to the AHL on conditioning stings and Perry would not be eligible for either.
One has to do with coming off LTIR (and is max of 3 games and 6 days subject a short extension with league consent).
The other is generally used when players have not played for weeks but, in any event (1) section 13.8 is very clear that if the league determines the loan is being used to evade waivers, or otherwise circumvent the CBA, the team will be subject to discipline and (2) while on the conditioning loan, the player still counts as being part of the active roster so it doesn’t help in any event.
Both types, LTIR related and other, require player consent.
Yes, they have to report – in fact, the rules state that prompt steps must be taken to join the new team. Of course, this can be stretched a bit, with paper transactions and what not, however, if a player is re-assigned they can definitely not take part in any NHL team activities including meetings, practices, events, etc.
Coach says the expect Pickard back in the ice in a few days. His neck is a bit sore and they are being cautious.
I don’t think its been mentioned but Berezkin had a goal in a 3-2 win on September 25 and 1G/1A in a 3-1 win yesterday.
Seems to be averaging about 15 minutes per game.
From Curlock, after a stretch of 3-4 games where Yevseyev, despite dressing, played ZERO shifts (they were dressing 8D), he’s played 13 and 10 minutes the last couple of games (7D dressed) – Curlock says he’s playing well defensively.
The KHL is strange.
I hope the kids sign in NA as soon as possible.
We will know if May when they are eligible (or sooner if they re-sign with their KHL teams).
Blake Wheeler still without a contract.
Moves around at about league average speed, still has a cannon of a shot.
He plans to sign a one day contract to retire as a Jet.
I feel for Phil Kemp. He has everything except NHL boots it seems. Unless the team is sure they can get a player up to ‘speed’, there is no point drafting them, it’s wasted pick, and late picks don’t have to be if they are done right, like Des and Wanner, or even Flattenburg, because he has an edge that most players don’t that is valuable if they can get the hockeying up enough
Skating technique issues are fixable, like Philp, but some guys are just slow, like Perry, and they usually don’t have the rest of what he does/did, he’s a rare case, not a unicorn to chase in the draft
My goodness you’re covering a lot of ground here.
Are you suggesting Bob Green drafted Kemp back in 2017 because of Corey Perry?
No of course not. I’m saying drafting players with significant NHL red flags (that you aren’t pretty sure can be coached up) and hoping they will change because Corey Perry or David Savard had careers and are slow is not a good strategy. Just like trying to draft Lucic again wasn’t
This management group seems to value skating more, as they should. The less obstacles to making the league the better as I see it. With a small player like Savoie, his offensive talent offsets his size because he is a strong skater, can play the boards and inside because he is strong on his skates
I don’t think any team ever drafts a player that they feel has ‘significant red flags’ hoping they will change.
This team has many, many times over the years. Loved Lucic, drafted a bunch of guys with no boots or offense. It got better under Holland. Still, drafting players like McLeod – has first round skill but not NHL assertiveness which is why he fell, which works better if you can produce a lot, not great for bottom 6 players. Thus the lack of depth in the org, traded picks away and what they had often didn’t pan out or haven’t
I think teams take the guy they think most likely to help their team.
Just because it doesn’t work out 80% of the time doesn’t mean they don’t take the guy they think most likely to make it. It just means they got it wrong when later picks do make it.
I would think every team does. The draft board is the draft board.
Clattenburg’s lack of offense was a significant red flag (0.5 points per game in his 18/19 year old OHL season), so you’re picking and choosing your red flags.
And is skating even the reason Kemp isn’t an NHLer already?
Kemp isn’t in the NHL
ergo
Kemp’s skating is the reason
ergo
The organization shouldn’t have wasted the #208 pick on him 7 years ago because they should have known his skating wasn’t good enough.
And then somehow tying that back to successful NHLers who aren’t good skaters. You did say Perry was “not a unicorn to chase in the draft”, implying the Oilers or others were doing so.
I believe Scungilli is a big Curlock fan which may explain this & his comment elsewhere on Lavoie.
https://oilersnation.com/news/oilers-prospects-in-the-pre-season-5-0-the-kids-are-alright
I think Curlock is a good read. As I noted to jp these aren’t novel comments, not my sole take on things
Yes, that looks like the source.
See what OP wrote. It’s not a fresh take
I’m not sure what your issue is today. Kemp has been commented and written about a lot over the years, I am certain you have read the same things
Clattenburg was drafted for things other than his production, it was most probably a mistake, but he can skate and is an natural agitator and they wanted more of that
Maybe the stats dept sees something with his offense. They asked O’ Reilly about him at the draft and he said Clattenburg was Flint’s best player in their round against them. Maybe it’s because his name is Connor
It’s really a general point, you don’t have to agree. We have spent years talking about draft fails here, not a new thing
I don’t disagree with the general point, I just don’t know think it’s being fairly applied to Kemp.
And for whatever reason you are also not applying the general point to other players.
Kemp was a ‘wasted pick’, but you like the (50 slots earlier) Clattenburg pick.
McLeod is being brought up in this same ‘red flag’ breath, but after being an Oilers 2nd round pick is now a legitimate NHL 3C who was just traded for a #9 overall pick.
It doesn’t add up.
McLeod is an NHL player because of his skating mainly. His rep is a declining one at this point. He can help a bad team like Buffalo, but he has issues and we have seen them in playoffs especially. Good work getting Savoie, but he rightly or wrongly has been declining in value based on prospect rankings that have been mentioned here so seen as most expendable, the reason McLeod could get him. If McLeod wasn’t seen as declining why would they trade him, he’s cheaper than Henrique?
Each draft is different, sometimes there isn’t a better choice. To me and how I view successful players, players that help push, timidity is a problem, and that’s hampering him as a NHL player. It’s why he fell to second round. From the 2018 draft Durzi has more points in less games as a RS D, was more productive in PTS/GP reg season and playoffs draft year, may have been an option
I have not heard that Kemp’s boots are slow. Unless Cult said something in their prospects review?
It pops up at least a few times a season here and there. Given he has good results in the Bake and they have needed RD there has to be some reason
I wrote the Cult’s prospect review for Kemp and, yes, it included mention of his slow boots – and the suggestion that its the one thing that might keep him from an NHL career.
Are we really complaining about wasting a late 7th round pick on a player who’s made a successful transition to the AHL and is a potential injury call up?
Apparently so. 🥸
yes, we are using hindsight to re-draft a player at #208 who has zero ‘red flags’
Even with hindsight to re-draft, this would be a tough one. Most of the players drafted after him are in the ECHL. There’s also few guys playing in the KHL from that round.
I suppose you could have traded up for the #199 pick to get Cayden Primeau, if that counts.
Maybe there’s a few guys who slid to 2018 draft, that might have been better options…
Oh look, we could have drafted Sean Durzi 🙂 He’s a ’98 from the 2018 draft.
I sure hope we don’t lose Lavoie over Perry. Damn shame.
Lavoie is in no man’s land Podkolzin is Bowman’s man and will get the push. Lavoie ship has sailed in Edmonton I do think he’ll get a opportunity with a new team. This player was mismanaged he was overcooked and buried for Bert&Ernie.
If you can’t outplay marginal veterans when given the chance, whose fault is it?
I’m rooting for the kid but his timing hasn’t coincided with his opportunities. Nor his consistency.
Just because you like him doesn’t mean he wasn’t given fair opportunities, multiple times.
I mean, he has clearly outplayed Perry this camp.
Also, at this point what is the risk/reward of Perry getting waived vs Lavoie.
Hey, no quarrel from me. He deserves a long look before sending him down. I’d rather risk losing Perry on waivers (especially with Cal Clutterbuck just waiting for a league minimum contract). If Lavoie is going to sail on, I’d at least like to see him get a fair shake instead of sending him down and risking alienating him. He’s earning a spot in real time.
What’s the difference between Podkolzin and Lavoie? Is it pedigree-upside-physicality-defensive awareness-shot-better release-more aggressive on the fire-check. Do you believe Lavoie was given the same opportunity in Edmonton as Podkolzin was in Vancouver?
Production.
Lavoie has been a streaky player his whole career. He’s getting the opportunities and it’s not like he has a muffin for a shot. He’s been snakebit and if someone finds room at the mill for him the tide will turn.
Its not just his production that has been streaky, its been his overall game. Going cold production wise is one thing, not playing strong 2-way hockey and battling in all zones is another.
I mean Podz has not exactly produced in the NHL.
Podz outproduced Holloways’ entire ELC in his rookie season….
This is really becoming a tiresome narrative, you are aware of that right?
Many many times others have pointed out that Lavoie has not met the challenge and grab himself a spot.
Just saying over and over again that he has been mismanaged or his ship has sailed or Montreal will grab him isn’t really informative or adding to the discussion.
Lavoie deserves to be on the fourth line more than Perry or Ryan.With podcolzin,and Philp,they would make a great line.Put Ryan and Perry on waivers….no one will claim them,and if they do….who cares!
He certainly has not been mismanaged to this point – I think most that have watched his career in Bako would agree with that.
Lavoie and his agent among others think otherwise. If you can’t see the difference of treatment O’Reilly who was picked in the same range as Lavoie is recieving then that’s on you. The Oilers have showing more love for O’Reilly in the last week than Holland did for Lavoie the last 5 years. Confidence is a big thing and in many cases it can result in the difference of a career in the N.H.L or the Swiss-Swedish leagues.,
You are forgetting one important factor: O’Riley actually earning a longer stay in cap. Lavoie didn’t earn anything outside of the Q until December 2022.
Lavoie has always looked defensive conscious to my eye. All I know is 1 mistake by Lavoie and you would never hear the end of it while Holloway was allowed to make mistakes while given all kinds of opportunities.
To you eye?
Honest question, how many of his 200 AHL games have you watched to make that determination?
Holloway had a great exhibition season in 2022 and started the season on the 2nd line – he made one mistake and that was over.
He was given more opportunities over time, he earned more shots in the top six, he never stuck for a lengthy period of time – he was always demoted due to poor line changes, poor puck decisions in the neutral zone.
You finally have inside information?
Do tell.
Me as well. He seems like a late bloomer, and another year dominating in the A and getting better, and him accepting reality, could make him a cheap helpful bottom 6 next season when 4 regular F spots potentially open up. Ryan and Perry won’t be back, and likely not J Skinner and C Brown because cap
A chance to play on this team is worth the wait when you still have some kinks to iron out, and he does. It would almost certainly mean bigger future contracts for him. It’s better for a player’s rep to be a solid bottom 6 with some offense on a top team that a GM might see as having higher potential, than maybe getting top 6 reps on a crap team
I see this at odds with your frequent statements about playing younger players with higher ceilings that incumbent vets.
Lavoie has a higher floor and ceiling than Perry. I’d rather see Lavoie through some mistakes related to growing pains than watch Perry miss plays because the game has passed him by.
Waive Perry, keep Lavoie around until he demonstrates if he belongs or not.
I haven’t changed my view. Lavoie isn’t quite there yet, pretty close. Philp is further ahead to me, nothing lacking in his game except experience and I think Lavoie has some things to work on still
They may keep Lavoie around, I have also said that with the signings and who they are, it doesn’t look like there is much room for a rookie outside of Philp maybe beating Ryan out. Nobody has blown the doors off making it a no brainer. Of course if they think they will lose Lavoie to waivers they might keep him up and try to trade him
I’ll add it’s not about ceiling or potential to me, or development, it’s about younger players playing better now overall than incumbents. Whoever helps win now or playoffs. I also say I would rather they play a lesser healthy player than a guy as hurt as Kane who was struggling so much in playoffs. Like Holloway and Bro displaced more experienced players because they were given a shot and got better results, at least in Goal Diff
Then in this case it’s a slam dunk, they waive Perry and keep Philp and Lavoie.
I think we all know that won’t happen, because Oilers.
It’s pre season, I don’t think anyone has clearly stolen a job, and that’s what it would take because we are talking established veteran players, one long term with the team, one they just signed again
Do I think Lavoie could be better than Perry? Reg season yes. Do I think Philp – who I like a lot – has taken Ryan’s job? Not yet, and no waivers, the year off. The A won’t hurt him, I think they want to see how he does after a couple of months
As I’ve mentioned given what they did in summer I don’t see room for youth now unless it’s clear cut. I do expect some changes as the season progresses, Ryan and Perry (likely) may have tough seasons because age. It’s good to remember Perry scored pretty well last season, that’s helping him hang on
Philp would be a better 4RW than Perry. He’s also better on the PK, not that Perry even plays on the PK or play center.
I would not move Philp off center to the wing.
He started on the wing in the AHL and it was a tough start and there were healthy scratches. He started his trajectory up essentially immediately after being moved to center.
Either would I. However, hypothetically they could play Podz-Ryan-Philp or Lavoie-Ryan-Podz or Lavoie-Philp-Podz. What I’m trying to say is there’s no need for Perry on the roster.
Also waive Ryan,and keep Philp.
Keep both for around 10 games or so. Play both equally and waive one.
Connor Clattenburg named captain of the Flint team
It was mentioned that a strong top 4 D is critical to success late. NHL_SID has a piece up and mentioned that only 2 teams had 2 pairs in the top 12 league wide in xG Diff %, the Oilers and Canes
The Canes lost a lot this off season back end. I’m not sure it’s possible to have 4 quality D for long because cap without sacrificing at forward. The approach the Oilers took looks like the right approach, low cost guys with something the stats guys must like. It’s a gamble but with higher upside if it works until the players price themselves off the team. Then you try again
https://oilersnation.com/news/should-josh-brown-be-an-nhl-regular-for-the-edmonton-oilers
If the top pair and the bottom pair are exceptional, as Ekholm & Bouchard and Kulak & Desharnais apparently were, it takes pressure off of an inadequate second pair. Which does make sense. So, maybe Kulak & Emberson can be that third pair for Nurse & Stecher because we already know Ekholm & Bouchard are among the best.
https://oilersnation.com/news/should-josh-brown-be-an-nhl-regular-for-the-edmonton-oilers
That’s a damning article and not much different than some of have been saying, including our host.
It sure is. We will see. I liked the Hawks when they were good, I liked how they played. Bowman I think likes ability first, but he has said you need a mix, and some truculence is part of things. He always had some in Chicago, that’s probably it, unless the stats guys or a scout thinks he may play better on a better team
Thank you for the response to the question, much appreciated.
I wish you are right that Stecher is certain and Brown is uncertain (and you might be) but I’m not sure the decision makers for the Oilers have it that way. We’ll continue to get more information on this one.
Here is hoping we see some Kulak/Stecher, if its Kulak/Brown tomorrow (again), well…..
London doesn’t play again until Friday and the Oilers aren’t making cuts until Tuesday – he may or may not play in that game but I think he goes after it – and he should have himself a shiny new ELC to take with him on the plane (which will be subject to slide this season AND next season presuming he doesn’t play in the NHL next season – is back to junior or NHL next season as well – not AHL eligible).
If Cowan makes the Leafs out of camp this should move O’Reilly and Nicholl up the batting order. I’m really liking the early returns on the new gangs 1st draft. How can you not love the crasher banger and now team Captain Clattenburg.
I mentioned last night that, despite his nice goal work in the faceoff circle and on the PK, he played the least on the team at 5 on 5 (under 7 minutes) and got throttled by the Ben Myers line – of course, mitigating factor is, as LT mentions, being on a non-NHL line.
I know that Derek Ryan is better suited as a 4RW but its really the 4C spot that Philp/Ryan are competing for and, well, Derek Ryan also had a good game last night with a couple great passes for primary assists.
Philp is waivers exempt, Lavoie it not and is becoming a potential waiver claim risk. Its really Corey Perry that SHOULD be at risk of losing his roster spot to Lavoie – saves $375K of cap space and could make the team strong (COULD).
Ryan being a PK guy is an important tidbit – they plan on using Pod (never killed in the AHL) and Arvidsson (didn’t kill as a King) on the PK – removing Ryan as a PK seems risky.
Philp can come up and down – just call him up for short stints to give Ryan some time off, re-assign Philp on off-days, etc. and send him down to get Ryan back in until Philp makes it so that Ryan has to go on waivers.
I think Noah won’t have to wait long to become a everyday 4-C. The puck does seem to follow him around hopefully he can get Savoie and Lavoie kickstarted and tear up the A.H.L out of the gate. That is if Lavoie isn’t traded or picked up on waivers. I could see the Habs trying to get some size after Laine knee collision which looked nasty on the replay.
I’m beginning to agree with your assessment of Troy Stecher. He played well last night and so did Dermott. But if Emberson isn’t the partner for Nurse then Stecher provides another option. If neither can play with Nurse, then they may be forced to put Kane on LTIR and get someone who can. To Josh Brown’s credit he has only played 2 exhibition games where he played well in one and not the other. So, we need to see him somemore before passing to harsh a judgement, as well we need to see Travis Dermott on his off side to see if he truly has that versatility to his game. If so he IMO wins the 7th D position. That’s it in a nutshell.
Signing Skinner and Arvidsson on July 1 was to grease the wheels for re-signing Drai (he has not had 2 legit L2 wingers for most of his games in Edmonton) which greases the wheels for re-signing McAwesome and Bouchard. It is frustrating to see that L2 has not played a game together yet this late in pre-season. They should play together the remainder of the preseason – getting them going is a lot more important than who is going to be F12 and F13. Get on it!
Great to see O’Reilly doing so well, but he isn’t going to play in the NHL this year. Now that he has a taste for it, time to send him to London and let him have a year to continue his development and most likely dominate. This was a very good pick by the scouts and to trade the 25 first rounder to get him at the tail of the 24 first round – well done!
The only F signing that bugged me this summer was Perry. He is slow. He is old. I get what he brings to the team to help guys out, but there are other important elements to have in the bottom six like PK and speed. I take Ryan over Perry most days of the week, but both are old. Ryan had a great game last night and I have been a fan of his game even before he came to Edmonton. Both guys are ideal mentors to the helping Philp, Podz and Lavoie improve their games. Given the history of this club however I suspect the vets will get their seats at the table and the kids will get axed. I will be okay if they send Philp to Bakersfield for 4-6 weeks to get him more ice time and continue to get back into the rigours of day – to – day hockeying but he is ready. He is 4C, right now. I think Ryan should be 4RW and it seems Podz gets 4LW but I have been impressed with Lavoie for the NHL games I have seen him play in the past year. I am sure he has impressed other teams as well. A patient team could develop him into a 3LW.
I know there are merits in having 7D and 12F for accruing cap space, but there are also merits in having emerging talent play on this team. There is no way Ryan and Perry can handle 82 games this year and play in the playoffs. So….set out as you mean to go….but I really doubt they will waive Perry or Ryan and I believe they will waive Lavoie and there is a good chance he gets picked up by another team further emptying the cupboards over the past few months….
Everybody knows the games get harder as the season begins. Keeping Lavoie for 10-15 games to see if there is a drop off affects the accrual somewhat but seems a small price to pay to find out if he is truly NHL ready – either for this team or with actual trade value.
They have the cap space; I say use it if there is any question at all.
This is a good point. There is value in that cap space to manage the situation.
The best way to kick the can down the road is to waive the only one that is protected (Philp), carry an extra 2 forward (14) for a while playing different L4 combinations. If no injury then decide who to waive. Bring up Philp. See how that goes for ~15 games and then either send him down again or waive an underperforming L4 (should there be one) and keep him up. Then if there is confidence in the performance work to accrue cap space…
A patient team has been developing Lavoie. He’s in what, D+6? Barely starting to make a legit case for being a roster player at the NHL level? If that’s not patience, I don’t know what is.
Agree with you on the Perry signing. I would have preferred Cal Clutterbuck, who plays a similar game and shows better by basically every NHL Edge metric, plus he’s a grizzled vet that’s three years younger. And is an ace on the PK.
I like what Perry adds – that super irritating thing. But I think waiving him to keep Lavoie is a better idea. And early in the season there is “some” time to take to evaluate exactly what a “young ones” line of Philp, Podkolzin and Lavoie might offer over Ryan or Perry.
A third line of Janmark-Hendrick-Brown
is not going to compliment the top six, the drop off will be too significant.
i would pencil Nuge and/or Arvisson on the third line to increase the impact and the TOI during what is basically a mean less regular season.
Lavoie-McDavid-Hyman
Skinner-Driasaitl-Brown
Nuge-Hendrick-Arvidsson
Janmark-Philp-Ryan
PP 1 – Same as last year
PK1 -Nuge/Brown
PK 2 Janmark/Philp
PK 3 Ryan/Hendrick
They did a superb job when the coach was rotating every soup can available alongside Draisaitl, I think they’ll be fine.
I’d love to see a Pod/Philp/Lavoie 4th line.
Hot take alert! And please, spell Henrique’s name correctly. It’s a respect thing.
Brosef Ragassidy agrees whole heartedly
Borgnine Raffletree as well.
Sarn Ganger is probably a little sad that people started to care about spelling names correctly after his time here had come to close.
That’s more balanced but won’t happen unless there are problems of some sort. Nuge may be approaching third line play at 5v5 but it won’t happen yet. People management will come first
Why not just call him Schmendrick, if you’re not going to bother spelling it at all close to correctly?
The 3rd line looks fine, and despite what OP thinks, players can actually pressure the puck for ~12 to ~14 minutes per night for an entire season.
Just ask the Panthers. That’s their entire system.
There’s no way Lavoie plays on the top line instead of Nuge. Maybe during the exhibition season. And it’s Henrique or maybe Rico. But not Hendrick.
I do like Matt Hendricks but he’s just not enough of a threat to score.
Especially after he took that puck in the groin.
I would prefer the bottom six to look like:
Lavoie/Henrique/Brown
Janmark/Philp(Ryan)/Podz
At the same time we know the coach wants to start the same 3rd line that finished the season (and it seems unlikely they move Perry off the roster).
I think the story of that 3rd line has taken on a bit of the fairly tale. Absolutely they looked good by eye but in reality:
The above two are facts and I will add the subjective commentary that I don’t think the style of play that the fanbase loved with this line, which was 100% absolute puck pressure up the ice and with every little bobble from the opposition, is sustainable for a trio of 30somethings for 82 games.
The line should be able to have more success as they won’t be playing the SC champions nightly and, really, Henrique was a 50 point player last year and is a very good 3C. He’s in the Lowry, Danault category for 3C.
Those are definitely the seven players I would like to see playing in the bottom six. They can blend them any which way.
They could very well keep an extra forward but I do think they want to avoid it and I’m still not convinced they will waive Perry to prior to the start of the season.
I see THREE new sweaters breaking camp….Philp, Lavoie, and Stecher. It is right and just.
Podkolzin?
FOUR.
Stetcher already played 7 games for the Oilers last season. Podkolzin seems like a lock, and one of Lavoie or Philip might make the roster.
I’m 100% certain Ryan makes the team barring injury. KK talked glowingly about his PK chemistry with RNH in the post-game presser. Talked about players in the bottom 6 needing to fill “roles”.
Philip definitely could fill a role in our bottom 6 as a RH faceoff specialist and alternate PKer.
Unless a top 9 winger gets injured or Perry decides he wants to go on a conditioning stint during the early part of the season … I don’t see Lavoie making the cut.
O’Reilly would make the Oilers in bygone years during the DoD. Terrific player .., I can’t wait to track his progress in the OHL this season. The confidence he’s gaining in training camp should help his coaches see that he is ready to be the top dog in London.
Do you think the organization is going to waive (and assign) both Perry and Ryan to make room for the forwards?
I’m not asking if you think they should but if you think they will.
They could waive and assign Perry &
Josh Brown. Keep Ryan, Philp & Lavoie, sign Dermott to league minimum.
The Oilers defense. People need some reason to believe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKnnh8VDULs
Philip Broberg. I am going to be driving for awhile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fUkWRZyJTY
Let it go.
https://youtu.be/CWnm-a4UyUA?si=StBuYgVS5QElLYvm
Try this way
Holloway&Broberg updates on the hour. Could these 2 compare to the losses of Satan and the trade of Coffey?
I don’t think a center has won a job out of camp drafted in late 20s through 30s since Ryan Oreilly did it with the Avs in 09.
Patrice Bergeron.
Yes I believe 2003 is before 2009
Patrice Bergeron was in…2003, I think. It’s a rare outcome for sure.
Sebastian Aho is close. July birthday…so two months…but he would have been drafted higher the following year. He spend draft +1 in Finland.
Wyatt Johnston is close. Spent draft+1 in junior. But missed one year of junior hockey, but would have been draft higher if he had not lost the Covid year.
David Pastrnak…except a right wing. Technically, a few games in the minors.
Ago was used almost exclusively on the wing during his first few seasons.
Aho … stoopid autocorrect.
Performance by established players in exhibition really means nothing. They are doing what they need to do to get ready for the season and not necessarily doing what leads to the best impact on that game that night. Corey Perry being much less impactful than Lavoie (and Philp) doesn’t mean that much except we also know that he was, well, not good in the playoffs.
In order to accrue real cap space to bank, they don’t have room for an extra healthy forward but Lavoie and Philp have both made real cases.
Lavoie is becoming a real waivers loss risk as well.
It starting to make the most sense to waive Perry and keep Lavoie. Not only for asset management and potential for the best lineup but that also saves $375K on the cap and increases accrual. Perry is over paid and he may clear.
I think they should try that swap to start the season and they likely also send Philp down as he is waivers exempt. They would then be able to call up Philp for a few days or a week here or there to give Ryan and break and get Philp some games and then send him back down when they switch back (or, if he’s as good as he might be, that’s the time to waive Ryan).
Im not sure they will waive Perry to start the season and they could possibly have a verbal with him to best his $150k for 15 games. That is pure speculation though.
Ryan had a pretty good game last night as well. KK has a tough decision, and Ryan is not going quietly. It’s good to have so much depth in the organization though. First time in a long time that we can say they seem to have everybody slotted properly at forward.
Perry won’t get claimed unless he wants to be. He has enough rep in the league that a team wouldn’t just do it like with a younger player, they would inquire. I believe this happened a few years ago where his agent said don’t claim him, perhaps the Habs season
I don’t think that was Perry, that was Spezza, was it not?
Perry may have no issues getting claimed – he may want to ensure that $150K bonus vests.
He should clear, I man his contract is an overpay even discounting the bonus.
I’m not convinced the Oilers even consider doing this to start the season.
I don’t have time to check, could be
I have wondered about these cheesy bonuses for Perry. He has made 107M in his career, and if what an agent said is correct that they take home about 35%, that’s 37.45M, not accounting for what he’s made on investments. 150K is pocket change for him. I think bonuses must be motivating for him somehow
Oh, I have been annoyed by the performance bonuses in both of Perry’s contracts with the Oilers.
He grinded the Oilers in these contracts. I can’t speak to his current financial situation but I presume the extra $150K (before taxes, etc.) mean essentially nothing to his day to day (and he may not even “notice” one way or the other) but that cap penalty for that next year if the Oilers are at the cap is meaningful. Similar with the $375K over league min for his cap hit this year – that is definitely meaningful to the Oilers.
That was before Philp changed their minds .
No body would claim him. He just wants another shot at the cup. He can play in Bakersfield and be a call up if required.
Its far from a certainty that noone would claim him.
He did score 12 goals in 54 regular season games last season, which is a 15+ goal pace.
Ryan had a good game, may have moved the chances for Philip back a bit. I’m ok with that. Top line minutes in the A is better for him than 9 as 4C. He’ll probably get NHL games this season, but he should be preparing for next season, ironing out the little details, and start his push for 3C as Henrique slows down
A good two way RS 3C would be ideal, hopefully find another RS 4C. They have been short on RS C for too long
I’d rather lose Perry through waivers than Lavoie. That makes the most sense to me. It is also my belief that Philp is going to stay. IMO four players will make up the fourth line, Podkolzin, Philp, Ryan & Lavoie. If Ryan needs a break, go with Lavoie-Philp-Podkolzin.
But no Corey Perry. I know Perry is a vet that won’t give his all in the preseason and what will they tell Corey, except that he isn’t good enough to make the Oilers.
Sorry Corey.
I’d also rather lose Perry at this point but I’m not sure management and the coaching staff feel the same.
Unless they are cratering cap accrual by going with a 23 player roster (including Kane, even if he’s on regular IR), there is no cap space to have all of Ryan, Lavoie and Philp.
I expect Philp starts the season in the AHL – he could get called up for shot stints to give Ryan a break here or there but I don’t see both on the roster.
I am hopeful the keep Lavoie but someone needs to go if they want real cap accrual.
If they want to make the math work to have the best possible 23 man roster including Kane they will. There will be tough decisions.
It’s getting late for evaluation as there are only three games left before they count. Line up I’d like to see for the next one
Skinner Draisaitl Arvidsson – these guys need some game action
Lavoie Henrique Brown
Podkolzin Philp Savoie
Janmark Ryan Perry
Nurse Emberson
Kulak Stecher
Dermott Brown
Then it’s time to get down to a roster closer to opening night
Agreed! How quickly that 2 nd line mesh’s and 2 nd D pair goes will have huge impact on season.
That’s right. Much more impact than who is on the fourth line. I think second line and second pair needs 2 of the last three games assuming Nurse is healthy
Has the second line played a single game together?
No, which is strange imo.
Coach said that each of the lines and pairings will likely get 2 out of the last 4 games so I’m sure we’ll see the Drai line tomorrow.
There is always evaluation but I think the only real battles are the 6-8 d-men – which of Stecher or Brown will start with Kulak and will the “loser” get sent down with Dermott getting a contract for 7D or stick.
Perry vs. Lavoie and Ryan vs. Philp may or may not be real battles for opening night although Lavoie introducing himself as a waiver claim risk might change that.
So we are talking 6-8D and, maybe, 12F for roster spot competition.
At least how I currently see things – could be wrong.
7D & 13F & 2G.
Kane is 13F.
Kane can be 14F on IR if they really want to.
Philp is better off learning in the NHL.
Yes, they can put him on IR but that doesn’t do anything for the cap space – roster vs. IR has zero effect on the cap situation – the only thing putting him on IR does is open up a roster spot on the 23.
Any news on why Pickard left the game? If he’s out for say unsure time limit will Bowman go Goalie hunting?
Contact to the head.
Phil Kemp is humming “Born to Run”. He has little faith, and there is no magic in the night. And those two lanes will take him anywhere next summer. Heaven is waiting down the tracks.
Phil Kemp in the Oilers organization. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAho7YBvitc
I’m just here for the Thunder Road references.
As long as Tweeter isn’t at the wheel.