This is the Darnell Nurse WOWY (oh HOW I miss that website) early in his NHL rookie season. It shows the young man playing with a lefty blue (Andrej Sekera) and posting close to 50 percent possession while getting caved in actual goal share at five-on-five. Nurse is a target of fans, such a target that it’s kind of impossible to talk about him. Nurse has passed into the “don’t talk about religion and sex” region of Oilers discussions, which is too bad. If I say “Nurse was poor last year” there’s applause, it I say “but the Oilers badly need him” there are boos and someone, from the back, yelling “trade his ass” even though he has a full no movement clause. So, what can one do?
DARNELL NURSE
In the last five seasons versus elites, and in about 2400 minutes five-on-five, Darnell Nurse’s goal share is 52.8 percent, 102-91. Your response is ‘he played with McDavid in those years’ and that is value. Away from McDavid in those years, he delivered 43.5 percent goal share (44-57 goals). While with the captain, Nurse ran 58-34, 63 percent.
Nurse’s numbers in those five years away from McDavid bunched together don’t tell the whole story. Here is the breakdown by year:
- 2019-20: 9-7, 56 percent
- 2020-21: 4-11, 27 percent
- 2021-22: 10-8, 56 percent
- 2022-23: 13-13, 50 percent
- 2023-24: 8-18, 31 percent
In breaking things out this way, we can identify two seasons that are outliers, and that implies injury or some other element in a player’s game. Right? If he gathered 56 percent solo in two of the first three years and 27 percent in the other, it’s the Sesame Street ‘one of these things is not like the other’ right? So last year Nurse didn’t have success and the playoffs were even more dire. He. was. hurt. Doesn’t matter, people are angry and when we get angry the brain part is secondary.
I am not enamored with Oilers management and coaching currently. They have returned to the hell bent ‘moar big’ model that led to a stampede of Coke machines entering the organization twenty years ago. Kris Knoblauch may get his ass kicked in the first 10 games like Jay Woodcroft did last year, but this time the underlying numbers won’t be encouraging (as they were in 2023-24).
That said, I’m thrilled the team is taking its time with Nurse’s deployment. Bring him along at pace and return him to the 2022-23 levels and maybe more. It’s the right thing to do. I’m even confident that Ty Emberson will have a positive impact on the team, although we simply don’t know if it will be next to Nurse on the second pairing.
We get early indications about coaches and management, and reading the tea leaves currently I’m wondering if Kris Knoblauch has complete roster control. If the coach wants to win early, then we’re going to see Noah Philp at No. 4 center opening night, and we’re going to see Brett Kulak lined up with one of Troy Stecher or Travis Dermott. If moar big rules the day, then the team will suffer. I do not object to big, rugged players, in fact all things being equal I prefer them.
These big, rugged players have to contribute to outscoring. No exceptions.
When a team does things for reasons other than winning hockey games, then you need to find a hobby. Do the laundry. Collect stamps. Go to the library. Raise money so kids can have computers and access to learning. The club will eventually figure it out, you don’t owe it to anyone to sit and endure misery.
The Oilers defense has been ponderous in the preseason and I’m confident there is going to be some uneasiness at the beginning of the regular-season schedule. The lack of urgency in getting down to six men and true on the blue (which I hate) and slow-playing Nurse because of the injury (which I freaking love) has us here. I don’t normally do this before the Game 1 post, but here you go:
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-4-2, 12 points in 11 games
- Actual October results:
- Oilers in 2024-25:
It should be far better, but the Oilers are going to be defensively chaotic coming out of the gate. They just are. The only way to avoid it is to play the hell out of Ekholm-Bouchard, like 30 minutes a night. I feel badly for Kris Knoblauch. He deserves a better defense. The expectations of this team are glorious, but the defense is not set after the top pairing. The Nurse handling has been pristine, but the rest is a dog’s breakfast and I don’t think Scotty freaking Bowman could untangle this mess before opening night.
Friday is always a blast, so much happening in sports and the weekend is straight ahead. We’ll kickstart the proceeding at noon on the Lowdown, Sports 1440, sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify. Steve Lansky will join us today, as will Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff. I’d stick close to the Al Gore this weekend, Stan Bowman is an active GM and he may well want to do something in the next couple of days. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: Identifying the Edmonton Oilers’ top recall options at each position
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5813594/2024/10/04/edmonton-oilers-depth-2024/
Ethan Bear has a cap hit over $2MM which is not a fit for the Oilers 3RD at this point in the season.
This year all I want is for the players to stand up for the stars. It should be automatic, you touch McDavid and there’s a response. Instant smash.
Now if that means having a couple “coke machines” on the roster, then I’m OK with that.
Last year was the soft parade. Too many guys were scared to engage. I don’t think I’m alone on this. Brown has a place on this team, sheltered minutes on the 3rd pair will not make or break this season.
That’s it and nothing more. Why criticize the entire organization for signing a guy for 1 million that can be buried and forgotten at any time.
@PuckPedia
As suggested and predicted in this piece, hearing that #ALLCAP
will in fact be putting Ethan Bear on waivers today
Ceci and Desharnais were “replacement level” last year as per many people. They have been replaced. Meanwhile at forward Holloway became Pod, while Foegele and McLoed became much better in theory as Arvidsson and Skinner.
Thats on paper a better club than the opening lineup in the SCF.
I can’t get behind the idea that we’re sewering a season because the rotating cast of seventh to ninth defencemen are wrong handed or the fourth line is shorter. We so far have no evidence the defence has actually been weakened and where there IS a hole (the same one that existed last year) they have actually positioned themselves to FILL said hole at the deadline.
Its fine. We are at the stage of the season where you put chips down on what’s wrong so yo can cash it at 2-9-1.
But let’s not forget these remain the best of times. What happened to holding on to this feeling, etc?
We all have a responsibility to not be pollyannaish but does anxiety over the fringes of the lineup undermine the core essence of this club, which is unchanged and if anything hungrier and more prepared than ever? Not for me by a mile. Much of this is respecting the leadership of this core and knowing they are capable of getting the best out of each of their line-mates.
The preseason is meaningless. Let’s drop the puck for real and give some credit to coaches Coffey and Garlic who took a slightly worse club to within a goal of the prize.
Great comment
Word, baby, ….word!
Agree in spirit. Many good reminders here. These are indeed the best of times.
But at beginning SCF, I do think Broberg was better than whomever our 2RD will be. Hopefully we can upgrade that the trade deadline.
Also, I hope the SCF G7 loss will make us hungry…not tired from a short off-season.
Farewell 630 Ched.
Next Oilers game is the Final on 630 Ched. A Farewell to a Decades Staple.
It will be moving over to 880 starting with the 1st Game Opener!
https://x.com/OADsBraydonW/status/1841676910499151967
It will be interesting to see how they handle the branding challenge here. Kind of surprised they haven’t dropped the “630” in their promos and reads already.
Holy Crap.
New World.
Maybe, but I don’t think this is a certainty.
For me, although its only been exhibtion games, Emberson has shown the opposite of chaos – he is very good defensively and has given up almost nothing against at 5 on 5.
We know the top pairing is fire (although Bouchard has a tendancy to start slow with handling the puck), I think the 2nd paring (which will always have some chaos because Nurse bring some chaos) has a real chance to succeed and Kulak is a solid 3LD anchor.
I believe that Nurse having a “bounce-back season” is one of the keys to this team’s success. I know he’s had a round season and a half over the last few seasons culminating in an injury-related debacle in this year’s playoffs.
Frankly, I don’t think he had been near 100% since he played through the hip issue in the 2022 playoffs but I think he may just be there with the extra rest and precautionary deployment.
I have little doubt that Nurse has the ability to anchor a very strong second pairing. I mean, Nurse anchored a 1st pairing, playing some of the toughest comp in the NHL, with a revolving door of “non 1st pairing partners” for years and kept his head above water. Yes, there was McDavid help but those were very tough minutes and with the likes of Bear, Ceci, Barrie, etc.
Nurse has flaws and will make mistakes every game but, when he’s playing well, the quantity of solid plays simply vastly outweigh the mistakes – he stops so many plays in the defensive zone with a good stick or getting in front of a puck of winning a battle, etc.
As far as Emberson goes, one can only glean so much from exhibition but he has been so very solid – he gives up almost nothing defensively (to my eye) – great stick, good positioning, smart plays, etc.
His numbers in the exhibition are 60% plus across the board including like 64% expected goals.
To this point, he has done everything to provide optimism that he can be a solid 2RD – to this point.
Every season, pre-season does and doesn’t matter.
Josh Brown’s pre-season GA60 is 3.96 in 60 minutes, Bouchard’s is 4.39 in 54 minutes. Matters or no?
Desharnais over in Vancouver is 3.73 in 32 minutes. He was 0.7 GA60 in 85 minutes of pre-season time with us last year. Matters?
I tend to the pre-season doesn’t matter camp. Oilers did well last year in pre-season, came out of the gate horribly, fired their coach, made the finals. NYR and DAL didn’t have a great pre-season, finished high in the standings, made the semis.
Hockey’s mostly get individual talent, try something, then try something else.
It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.
An amusing tale of Ray Ferraro.
Seattle wanted to host the first game of the regular season so was granted an afternoon game and Ray was slated to provide colour for the game.
That game starts at 1:30 PDT.
Ray is also doing the inaugural Utah home game the same day which starts at 7PM PDT.
Then he is slated to do colour for the Canucks home opener the following day at 7PM PDT.
So he is working 3 games in a little over 24 hours.
3 games x 2.5 hours/game = 7.5 hours of work in 24 hours.
Crazy….
Tough life – he works less than I do.
There is just a bit of travel between games.
He’s making hay while the sun is shining.
Boo – F%#@ing – hoo. And we may care about this because?? Twat
Is it really so bad?
Ek Bouch
Nurse Stetcher
Kulak Ember
Dermott
“In breaking things out this way, we can identify two seasons that are outliers, and that implies injury or some other element in a player’s game. Right? If he gathered 56 percent solo in two of the first three years and 27 percent in the other, it’s the Sesame Street ‘one of these things is not like the other’ right?”
Here’s a link to a binomial calculator:
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial
In those first three years, if Nurse were truly a 56% goal share player away from McDavid, the probability of him being on ice for 4 GF or fewer out of 15 total goals scored in one of those years is 2%. The evidence would then suggest he’s not a 56% goal share player away from McDavid. And, in all the years listed, Nurse in fact went 44-57 (44% goal share).
But… Important to remember that, of the three positions (F, D, G), defensemen have the least impact on goal share. When McDavid isn’t on the ice, the Oilers have typically had poorer forward options than other NHL teams over those years. That’s probably the bigger driver for Nurse’s results, quality of teammates… rather than the effect of injuries, which can only be speculated, given the player mostly continued to play.
The criticism of Nurse comes from the salary, which is at a level where fans can fairly expect him to have a positive influence on all of his teammates’ results. Management did not zero in on that, however, before offering Nurse his contract. To be fair, there were probably other factors involved that made the signing a priority.
Nurse, to me, is fine, and better than fine when he’s aggressive and using his physical advantages.
Is there a “reasonable expectations” series this year or has that been discontinued?
It might be valuable to keep Ekholm & Bouchard together. However, it may be equally valuable to see how Nurse & Bouchard play as a pair. I’m still of the opinion Ekholm would be better suited to bring along Emberson than Nurse. In fact, I’d like to see them give it a try tonight, in their final tune up, before the regular season begins. Balancing out the three pairings remains an option that eventually they may need to look at. So tonight, if it were up to me, I’d go with Nurse & Bouchard, Ekholm & Emberson, Kulak & Stecher.
Is there any chance Brown is the 7th defenceman? Then just plays the PK and sheltered 5v5? Philip makes the team and Ryan or Perry gets sent down and they go the Woodcroft 11/7 model?
It might be a better option just to put Kane on LTIR. That way they can put out the best team available to start the season, with a 23-man roster and have some cap space to work with, when, not if, they can work out a trade, sooner rather than later. Because they won’t be in a position to accrue much, if any cap space anyway and doing so is more of a handicap than anything. There’s no way they should try to rush Kane back, if he can make it for the playoffs fine, if he’s out the entire season that’s fine too.
2 Mutts podcast reported that Brown actually bought a house in Edmonton 3 weeks ago. if that true, that that’s just a head-shaking decision for a journeyman defenseman who’s never been more than guy who has a spot in an NHL lineup for his fists more than his playing ability to make.
KK might be doing the humane thing by keeping him on the preseason squad and giving him lots of reps to give him as a long a look as possible.
They need a 23-man roster.
The 11/7 deployment works in a pitch it’s not a viable strategy just ask Woody who’s watching reruns of the Price is Right as we speak while Kris is coaching a Stanley Cup contender.
Pretty easy schedule for the first 4 games with the exception of the Jets who always give the Oilers a tough game. Say they play Brown against WPG, CHI, CAL, and he is found wanting as most of us are predicting, management can say at least they tried and then send him down.
I would expect Connor and friends to outscore those three teams even with giving up a bad goal or two.
Can you make the argument that it is better for the team to send Philip to the AHL for half a season so he can play 20 minutes a night, and then bring him up for the second half of the season?
I cannot. He’s outplaying all other fourth line candidates. When a player gives you a better chance to win, you should keep him.
You put too much cache into first week pre-season results. We’ll see how Philp does when the games matter. I hope he can rise to the occasion, but as we’ve seen in past years (e.g. Holloway’s pre-season results) once the games start to matter, a lot of young players start to quickly show that they don’t belong in the NHL.
Agreed and I’m seeing him as having NHL ceiling based on the little things he does well. The game never looks “too fast”.
These are not “preseason results” driven observations. There’s a difference if you know what to look for.
If he’s won the role, give it to him. He’s 26 now, so no more need for nurturing his development. He’s there.
I’m not at all following this narrative that the Oilers are suddenly obsessed with getting bigger. They acquired one guy (Brown) as far as I can tell who fits the narrative lately, and he’s at best going to be a third pairing guy.
They also acquired Savoie (5’9), Skinner (5’11), Arviddson (5’10), Podkolzin (6’1) and re-signed Brown, and Henrique (6’0) Stecher (5’10) and maybe Dermott (6’0 and looks like he might bump the one BIG guy down the depth chart). None of these guys, other than maybe Podkolzin, are known for being a big physical presence, and in most cases quite the opposite.
Other than Perry, who’s a bit player, none of the “bigger” guys they have acquired or retained (Emberson, Janmark) scream physicality.
They traded up to draft a guy who’s 6’1, and the one guy they took who seems to be of the “coke machine” variety is listed at 6’2. They also traded away or opted to not re-sign Foegele (6’2), MacLeod (6’3), Ceci (6’3), Desharnais (6’7!), and Holloway (6’1).
I don’t think having one guy on the roster who’s in the BIG mold who’s at risk of sitting in the press box or even on the farm most nights represents being “hell bent for moar bigger”.
Just my $.02.
Don’t let the evidence ruin a perfectly good narrative.
The Oilers under Jeff Jackson are clearly adding a grittier type of player. Sam O’Reilly fits that description as does Connor Clattenburg.
From the pro side, Josh Brown is the biggest addition from this offseason. Podkolzin is another. Roby Jarventie is still another.
I have no quarrel with any of these names, but they have to be able to help the Oilers win. Josh Brown was a bet on a player who could replace Vincent Desharnais. The Oilers want intimidation in the lineup, and that’s fine. They need to find players who can do it without bleeding goals.
Brown’s presence on the roster shows me the Oilers are willing to bleed goals in order to have a nuclear deterrent on the ice. It’s contrary to winning. It was abandoned and now (I think) it’s returning.
It is not a winning hand.
I don’t think most would say that O’Reilly is “gritty” so much that they’d say he’s a 200 ft guy. He had 34 PIMs in 68 games (14th on the team) for London last year, and plays a style closer to Nuge from what I’ve seen.
In 134 games, Podkolzin has 43 PIMS, and most of those came in his first season. In his last 58 NHL games, he has 17. Not sure that represents a guy out there throwing his weight around and being brought in to be “gritty”.
Jarventie? Tough to make a call either way, as he’s not on the roster.
I just don’t see a single player outside of Brown that shows any push in that direction. If they’re that obsessed, wouldn’t they be bringing in guys who were higher in the lineup or at least were going to be everyday players.
It’s not like they brought in Lucic or something. Looking at the numbers, the Oilers have gotten smaller in the offseason when you look at guys who will actually be in the lineup on a consistent basis, and I simply don’t see how that can be construed as being obsessed with grittiness or intimidation or even size.
O’Reilly patterns his game after Nazm Kadri and Matt Tkachuk. Jarventie is physical. I have no quarrel with either player, or with Brown’s physical style. I like the team to play with an edge.
You can’t play defensemen who don’t contribute to outscoring. Brown was hired as a replacement for Desharnais. The Oilers have a decision to make.
I’m suggesting they are getting stubborn on a player and that’s a bad idea. Coke machines don’t work.
I’d definitely not an expert, but I watched O’Reilly play in Penticton against other rookies, with plenty of youngsters out there who wanted to throw their weight around to get noticed, and saw nothing like that in his game. Haven’t really seen that in the preseason either.
The interview I heard with him sounded more like he wants to be known as a guy who’s responsible at both ends.
Tkachuk had 80 PIMS in 57 games in his last season of junior. Kadri had 105. That’s a pretty noticeable difference. I’m not saying he doesn’t have that in his game at all, I’m just saying do you bring in a kid who’s 6’1, 176 if grit and size is the absolute number one priority?
Brown is just one guy and one guy who’d likely not going to play more than 40 games, making this a moot point.
There are several other players that suggest a move in another direction. I’d say it’s far more likely they’re finally more concerned with surrounding skill with skill, and giving their best players the best players to play with.
The Parkatti move also speaks to this point. Would they bring him in specifically at a time when they’re obsessed with size so they could not listen to him?
Maybe when he’s 6’1 & 200 lbs. He’s smart.
Well I agree we are seeing some stubbornness.
Leon Draisaitl is starting his season with the most talented wingers he’s ever had on the 2nd line without robbing from the 1st.
The 3rd line was all retained.
Podz has shown flashes with the puck that Holloway has never reached, Perry has alot of goals and points under his belt.
O’Reilly had a great camp, with the puck.
Jarventie was flipped for a burnt out pick and may never play a big league game with the Oilers either.
Emberson is not a bruiser, none of the defenders brought in are other the one individual Josh Brown.
Everyone in the hockey world can see that the Oilers will be looking to upgrade the right side.
The team is older, shorter, lighter.
Imo it’s impossible to think Knobs and Coffey are going to be foiled by Josh Brown.
Nuge/Mcdavid/Hyman
Skinner/Drai/Ards
Janmark/Henry/Brown
Podz/Philp/Perry/Ryan
That’s not a moar bigger group, that’s a wagon.
Elk/Bomb
Nurse/Embers
Kulak/rotating cast of misfits.
There’s a hole everyone would like to see severely upgraded, and at some point it will be. If Emberson exceeds expectations, it’s most likely a tougher to play against 3rd pairing aging veteran. If Emberson ends up with Kulak, they’ve scored a talented top 4 RHD for the drive.
Not every player can be break dancers, some will make Dan Campbell proud with their knee cap biting abilities.
Their nuclear deterrent is their PP. Even the second unit they can put out there is better than most teams first unit.
I assume ‘two years ago’ is a typo?
My apologies, but I have to say I’m a bit puzzled by your level of concern over this.
Aren’t we talking basically only about Brown being paid $1M and being the favored 3RD?
Maybe also the Clattenburg pick?
What else leads you to believe they are ‘hell bent on moar bigger’?
The main FA signings were Arvidsson, Skinner and Henrique. None big or rough. The chose to let Desharnais walk.
I’m just not seeing anything other than Brown at 3RD (with cover) that indicates a larger issue.
Brown’s contract number isn’t the issue. Playing time for anyone who does not help the Oilers outscore is the issue. I like big, strong intimidating defensemen. Fill the roster with healthy Adam Larsson types. They have to be able to play, JP.
Yes, I’m not suggesting they play Brown come hell or high water, but it’s not like the other available options are out scorers either.
As I said, I’m not seeing much evidence of a larger issue, but maybe you’re ahead of the curve on this.
Fill the roster with healthy players. Put Kane on LTIR.
Clattenburg was picked 160 overall in the same zip code as Kelly Buchberger. Clattenburg was just named captain of his team. I know it’s Junior but coaches don’t select Coke Machines as Captains. This kid has something that is needed on all teams and I hope to see him on the Oilers in 4-5 years
Prospectacle!
A quintet of OHL’ers feature on tonight’s docket.
Wakely has yet to appear in a Battalion game since being returned, but my sleuthing has turned up nothing about a reason. We continue to play the waiting game.
O’Reilly has also been returned to the O–shall he join Nicholl and the Kniggits this eve?
And the Birds of Fire are also in action with Flattenburg and the Day-man (woo-ah-ahhhhhh).
But I digress:
The list of communities I’m using has been expanded. Since the Flames have embraced mediocrity, the Oilers are running their show geographically too now. The list now includes all of Alberta with forays into the southern NWT and western SK, and numbers over 800 communities.
Digression ends.
All games begin at 5 p.m. Major time.
We were once called the Alberta Oilers.
Even though it was the shortest off season ever, it sure felt long. But we are finally here with LT putting up the ‘WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER’ heading and results!
As to the defence and Nurse – play him if he is healthy. Nurse is good dman most of the time. It appears he gets into trouble when hurt or trying to do too much with a weak partner. Coffey needs to sit him and Emberson down and be very clear on roles and responsibilities – then Nurse (if healthy) can shine!
Viking – Bouch
Nurse – Emberson
Kulak – Dermott
Stecher
(Hard to decide with the limited TOI, however data from last year showed that Stecher was riding a PDO pony, so Dermott it is)
Watching some of the preseason games, Brown did not play like an NHL dman. Send him to Bake and call him up if required, although one of Wanner, Gleason or Kemp will probably eat his lunch.
I feel this line-up, if healthy, is good enough to keep us in the division crown running. Maybe top 3-4 in the Conference. But not the Cup.
This trade deadline is shaping up to be one of the more important ones in team history, akin to the 2006 magic.
Fun times ahead!
Different coaches seem to have different priorities in preseason. I am hopeful Brown is only getting so much playing time so that the team can see what they have with him. If KK is truly just taking the opportunity to evaluate guys, then there is no point in hand wringing over who plays where in the current lineup.
That said, I’ve had this uneasy feeling since the draft that there could be a coke machine bias in our current management group (e.g. picking Clattenburg wgere they did). For me, the big litmus test is going to be how long Brown sticks around in the NHL once preseason wraps up. As you say, the qualities he brings don’t have much to do with winning games. If the team values those other qualities more than winning, then I think we are in for a number of questionable moves and signings going forward.
Current management group have shown, with the exception of Brown, an improved acceptance of analytics and how they are valued.
IF Brown gets a couple of games and plays like he always has, I would expect them to send him down. No harm in cutting your losses as he will not count against the cap – just OEG money.
Agreed, this is what I think will happen.
But there is still a nagging voice in my head that remembers the DOD and fears a return to that addled way of thinking. For now, I don’t think Brown playing up at this time of season, or Ryan and Perry being on the roster for that matter, are the big red flags some are making it out to be. But if they DO get stubborn on Brown and keep him up over a guy like Stetcher in-season, then I will be very concerned.
Don’t worry LT, it will all come together tonight!!