The Edmonton Oilers are playing like a team that is suffering from the effects of a long season and playoff run in the spring. I’m not certain the group has their legs yet, and that’s going to be a problem. The preseason is over now, the small sample size of eight games will have to do when evaluating the available talent.
I’m not at all certain about success in the first 10 games for this team. It feels like a hangover fall (I hate that phrase, because it’s self induced and these men are only guilty of playing deeper into last season and having less recovery time, physically and emotionally) and I’m not sure what can be done beyond getting through the crazy legs and being patient. The Oilers don’t look good and opening night is straight ahead. It was a rancid preseason script, I still like this team’s future. Just not the immediate future.
THOUGHTS ON LAST NIGHT
The pairing of Darnell Nurse and Ty Emberson looked good to my eye and the numbers confirmed it. The duo (five-on-five) went 12-12 Corsi events, 7-6 shots, no goals either way and were 3-0 HDSC. That’s a nice stats run. Several of you reached out to me and mentioned another Nurse icing that was unnecessary and that’s something he does routinely. You’d like that to be ironed out of his game. That said, in the big part of the five-on-five game, Nurse and Emberson looked rock solid and that is encouraging. The Nurse hit on Sherwood was kind of hilarious, but did not impact the game in a positive manner.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins rang iron early from long range, and is hopefully employing more of a shooter’s approach to his 2024-25 season. Wonderful player no matter, but 18 goals a year ago feels shy for such a talented forward.
Leon Draisaitl is ready for the season, he had too many giveaways but also carried the play often (great players often land among the league leaders in GV). I think Jeff Skinner is a little wobbly in staying in his lane on that line, but single events can have impact and also be single events. I’m excited for that second line to shine. Viktor Arvidsson was the best of the ‘name’ free-agent signings during the preseason. His motor doesn’t quit and fans are going to love Hyman and Arvidsson as dual ramrods on right wing.
Corey Perry is a player I was prepared to fade entering the season, but he led (with Mike Hoffman) the Oilers in five-on-five pts-60 (2.63) and looked dangerous consistently. I don’t think he and Derek Ryan are well suited to playing on the same line, so Philp’s success may be key for both veterans.
Vasily Podkolzin will make the team because of his speed but I would like to see him do more at both ends of the ice. Early days, and sometimes the puck doesn’t gift a player with a chance to shine.
Noah Philp had a good night, getting one good look and playing well with Vasily Podkolzin and Cory Perry. He’s earned the NHL job, if the Oilers don’t give it to him it’s simply a matter of waivers. Zero doubt in my mind he’s the fourth-best center this fall, and if we’re honest he has outplayed several veterans in his efforts to win his dream job.
Mattias Janmark had some looks and took some penalties, I love watching him play. I’m not at all certain Podkolzin can push him the way Dylan Holloway was pushing last spring.
I would sign Travis Dermott and run him as the No. 7 defenseman, trade Raphael Lavoie for someone who can clear waivers and make Philp the No. 4 center.
With all due respect to some of the smartest hockey minds here, if you want to feel despondent over the preseason after our team went to game 7, that’s an emotional reaction not rooted in history. 6-1-1 meant nothing 12 months ago. As an intellectual and analytical exercise its something you can do. But then please account for this as well:
https://www.espn.com/nhl/standings/_/seasontype/pre
I’m not being emotional, I’m just seeing the same mistakes happening this year that happened during the horrid start last year.
I’m guessing defensively it’s due to the zone style system that seems like it takes time to get a feel for maybe?
Offensively not enough emphasis on puck possession. No support and making it easy to defend low percentage sorties. When the Oilers are holding the puck, openings develop eventually and they spend less time defending. Which also didn’t happen until maybe late November last year, ironically with McCleod and Foggy playing with Drai.
This team is a cup contender and will find their way, it just feels like they need to get their rear ends handed to them before the above starts getting any traction.
It’s pretty apocalyptic in here.
Blame it on the PTSD. Last season was bipolar, Woodcroft and tied for last in the West, to game 7.
Summarizing!
Lachance collected a trio of apples in BU’s 5-2 win.
Day stopped 23 of 25 in another OT victory, earning 3rd star honours.
O’Reilly picked up a helper.
Copponi was denied soup but went 12-of-18 (66.7%) on the dot.
Nicholl, Clattenburg, Mazura, Berry and Akey were also held scoreless.
Wakely did not dress.
I have only watched the last two preseason games and the Oil look far from bonafide. Eerily similar to what unfolded early last season.
Things look OK , until they don’t and an opponent is wide open alone in front with defenders 2 weeks away from everywhere.
The Oilers response is a steady dose of 97/29 and the bottom 6 shrivel accordingly.
I’m with you fellers (LT) I think we are in for a rough start to the season. Skinner will be the big loser here, suspect defense will cost him a job with Team Canada.
For the first time since Nov. 10 of last year, Beau Akey is in the Barrie lineup.
That’s great news.
Despite improving the quality of the wingers, this team is not as strong as it was during the playoffs.
The playoff success in 2024 was not built on 5v5 play: 49.17 CF%, 49.53 FF%, 51.53 SF%, 49.34 xGF%, 50.48 GF%, 48.63 SCF%, SH% 10.06, SV% 89.58, PDO 0.996. EDM was in the top three in one category: SH%. Goaltending was below expected 5v5 by 2.2 goals.
Playoff success in 2024 came from special teams, which were not just good but great with a 29.3 PP% and 94.3 PK%. The PK was historically great, with a 98.6 net kill percentage, surpassing the 2000 New Jersey Devils (Cup Champions) and 2012 LA Kings (Cup Champions) in terms of all-time great playoff penalty kills. Saving was above expected on the PK for EDM in 2024 by 6.7 goals.
The Oilers’ power play remains intact and will continue to be one of the all-time great power plays. However, there have been significant personnel changes on the penalty kill. Ceci (PK 1), Desharnais (PK 1), McLeod (PK 2), and Foegele (PK 2) all played significant minutes. Nurse and Ceci were extremely effective, with a plus 2 rating on the PK. There seems to be ample evidence that this defensive core is cheaper but not better at 5v5, with the subtraction of Ceci, Borberg, and Desharnais and the addition of Emberson, Stecher, and Brown.
On the 2024-2025 PK, Emberson has promising numbers in a very small sample, while Brown’s experience and shot-blocking place him above Stecher in the rotation. However, Brown presents other challenges to 5v5 play, making him a poor choice as a third-pairing defender.
PK 2021-2024
Emberson
TOI: 33:00
TOI/GP: 1:06
xGA60 REL: -5.98
GA60 REL: -5
Shots blocked/60: 5.38
Stecher
TOI: 306:55
TOI/GP: 1:52
xGA60 REL: 0.54
GA60 REL: 0.99
Shots blocked/60: 7.04
Brown
TOI: 388:11
TOI/GP: 2:16
xGA60 REL: 0.63
GA60 REL: 0.51
Shots blocked/60: 12.67
Fans should be asking themselves to what extent the team got lucky in its playoff success, which featured mediocre 5v5 play and mediocre goaltending combined with world class special teams. Can the PK do it again? It’s possible. Is it probable? As the team is designed, everything depends on it.
Do you think?
Yes, the Oilers were a much better PK team in the playoffs than regular season. So, lucky. OK.
And they were a much better 5v5 team in the regular season vs. playoffs. They were top 5 in the league in every % stat, and team SV% was 18 points higher. So, unlucky?
Why does ‘everything depend’ on repeating a historical PK?
You appear to be suggesting the Oilers 5v5 play and goaltending will definitely be what they were in the 2024 playoffs while PK will probably regress?
The big lie of any sports analysis is that the past predicts the future. I believe it was Gretzky who said that there are four seasons: preseason, regular season, playoffs and the Stanley Cup finals. Success in the regular season doesn’t necessarily predict success in the playoffs.
That said, the Oilers were an extremely mediocre team by 5v5 stats in the most important 25 game stretch of McDavid’s career. That should not be reassuring. They may add before deadline and the team composition may change, but consensus is that the current lineup is weaker than the lineup from the 2024 playoffs, as evidenced here in this blog and by observers and analysts including the “stats testers” and “eyeball testers” (like Rob Brown).
If past playoffs performance predicts future playoffs performance, the 5v5 game state doesn’t suggest a positive future by any measure except Sh%. The only reason that the Oilers made it to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals in 2024 was because of special teams, which included an all time great penalty kill. I don’t know if they can repeat that penalty kill. But I know that a downgrade on defence, or in the very least the addition of many more question marks on said defence, is not a very good way to try to repeat its success.
He says before telling us again that last playoffs 5v5 results (50.5%GF) are a really big concern for the future.
Consensus is that every decent playoff team is weaker after their temporary deadline additions have moved on.
And I haven’t been looking myself closely, but from what I’ve heard pretty much all the pundits and forecasters have the have the Oilers as or very close to the favorites entering the season. Am I mistaken on that?
These arguments were being made about these Oilers after losing in 2017, 2022, 2023.
Yet they continue to build, to grow, and to find ways to improve their results.
This team can win. And they’re going to get better from here, as you mention… plenty can happen by the trade deadline.
I’m frankly surprised that you would point towards the regular season 5v5 fancies as indicative of playoff and future success. Because I know that you know that such success isn’t predictive of either future season or playoff success.
The most logical approach for predicting EDM’s success in the 2025 playoffs is to look at how the Oilers were successful in the 2024 playoffs. That success was by incredible special teams play. The rest was very mediocre.
Yeah I definitely do not agree that’s the most logical approach.
As far as I know essentially all forecasters have the Oiler among a very small group of Cup favorites. That’s true whether those forecasters are using stats, eye test, or some combination.
What?
I don’t have articles to post, but it’s very well established that 5v5 regular season success correlates with playoff success. Isn’t it?
(the Oilers were 56%GF at 5v5 in addition to good their fancies)
Likewise, I’m pretty sure there’s quite a decent correlation between regular season results year over year.
Here’s a quick check on whether 5v5 regular season success is a good predictor of playoff success, i.e., whether there’s a reasonable level of correlation between the variables.
With 16 teams making the playoffs, let’s say that the top 8 teams on 5v5 GF% during the regular season are the strong (successful) 5v5 teams and let’s test whether teams that fall in the top 8 advance to the Finals more than teams that fall outside the top 8. (Where we’ll use advancing to the Finals as a proxy for playoff success.) This is a kind of Pearson’s chi-squared test where the null hypothesis would be regular season 5v5 success and playoff success are independent, ie, the strong regular season 5v5 teams don’t have any more success than the not strong regular season 5v5 teams.
Here’s what I get for McDavid’s 9 years in the league:
10 SC finalists were top 8
8 SC finalists were outside the top 8
AND
5 SC winners were top 8
4 SC winners were outside the top 8
Based on that, I’d say we can’t reject the null hypothesis, namely, 5v5 regular season success and playoff success are unrelated.
One caveat in my approach. I assumed the top 8 on regular season 5v5 GF% all made the playoffs. I thought it was a safe assumption.
Another caveat is that with such small counts (just 9 seasons), you’d need an extreme result to reject the null… not sure if 12-6 would even do it.
Thanks for this.
In addition to the adding more seasons caveat, would it not be reasonable to include all teams in the league rather than just the playoff teams (you appear to be testing teams 1-8 vs 9-16)?
Playing around, I think using a Fisher’s exact test would also be appropriate(?). Your SC finalists numbers are not significant using Fishers, like they were not using chi-square.
But if you use Fisher’s including all the teams in the league for those 9 years, you’d have:
Top 8 5v5 make the SC final: 10 of 72 teams
Outside top 8 make the SC final: 8 of 208 teams
Which gives a test statistic value of 0.0091, which is much smaller than 0.05.
This would seem to indicate that top 8 teams ARE more likely to advance to the SC final than the rest of the league. And that by extension, better 5v5 regular season teams have more playoff success.
Fair?
The regression values are not zero. But they do not reach values that are high enough to be considered models using scientific criteria. It depends on what you are trying to measure. This is so widely known, I am surprised that we are talking about it.
It is the most logical approach. The approach is to ask how were we successful in the past and see how you can improve upon it. But it’s also a trap: because the past doesn’t predict the future.
Frankly, this is why I like Lowetide so much. Because he understands very well that analytics is not science: it’s an art.
That’s not the question here. The question is by which mechanisms was EDM successful in the playoffs and how to repeat that success (OR NOT). They won by special teams. That’s a fact. If you don’t think so, then there’s no point in any conversation. Should they try to improve their 5v5 game? Or try improve the PK? Or both? What resources are required? How can you make such improvements? ETC.
This screams show your work. There’s a LOT that goes down between the playoffs in one season and the playoffs in the next: which teams actually make the playoffs, team rosters and roles, other teams’ rosters and roles, coaching changes, system changes , playoff matchups, etc. Plus, there’s this little thing called chance that affects 5v5, PP, and PK results. Especially in a smaller stretch of games against a limited number of opponents.
Past seasons do not predict future in hockey by 5v5 or all states when looking at any models. By predict, I mean R2 values found for models in other sports like baseball.
Nobody even tries to predict future states anymore in hockey. What am I supposed to cite? The entirety of the body of analytics? Alan Ryder’s website? Michael Schuckers?
I remember attending an analytics conference were Rob Vollman was talking about the predictive power of Corsi: R2 was 0.33 to future seasons. If you want to use regression as a parameter for projecting future seasons, the “best” model according to my analysis is war_on_ice’s Scoring Chances for which R to future points percentage is 0.58. These numbers fluctuate every season, and it depends on the method. I have my own expected goals model that I tweaked to R 0.6, It’s similar to DFF but uses shots not Fenwick.
In social media chats with Woodguy, Jason Gregor, Micah Blake McCurdy, and in private conversations with Michael Schuckers, Sam Ventura and AC Thomas: predicting future states isn’t really a thing in analytics anymore. It died quite a long time ago, before big data.
During the same analytics conference as the one with Vollman I was with Michael Schuckers and we were having this exact conversation with the analytics department from the Florida Panthers minus Mehta: it’s not a thing. It’s only a thing that aspiring analysts try to do in order to get a job somewhere (which is truthfully the Corsi story).
The most logical approach in trying to trying to predict the future is to look at how you were successful in the past and see if that can be continued or improved: even if scientifically that process is not possible. But there is no model that accurately predicts the future in hockey. It’s not baseball, and the honest statisticians like Alan Ryder and Michael Schuckers have been honest about that since day one. The role of analytics is to help with that process.
Unbelievable
Foegele was not PK2 during the season or playoffs.
Foegele played 26:26, 1.12 minutes per game on the PK. Approximately the same amount as Derek Ryan. I would call that PK2. It wasn’t PK1, but it was significant.
That’s a rather bold statement to make at this point. They have yet to play a single regular season game.
And yet that appears to be what you’re doing to try to persuade us that “this team is not as strong as it was during the playoffs.” Tying the play of incoming players using the numbers they posted on some of the worst teams in the league to projected team results going forward is a bit of a specious argument, no?
I’ll wait for the actual results to roll in before I make any temerarious judgements. Emberson and Stecher could well be the panacea for the d-corps we’ve long needed. Or the trade deadline could drastically alter what the team looks like, rendering this whole line of discussion moot.
The specious argument is the trap and the art of analytics. All we have is intelligent conjecture. And we have to learn to think dialectically. So yes, my statement is contradictory. I know this. That is why I make it.
I am not trying to persuade anyone of anything. I am trying to point the conversation towards the direction of the facts which are…
One: EDM was not a good team 5v5 in the playoffs. It was mediocre. Goaltending was mediocre. This is evidenced by all of the measures except Sh%. EDM was an absolutely world class and incredible team by specials teams play. And a huge part of the success was an absolutely unreal PK, for which several key players are missing.
Two: What is the method for achieving the same level of success as last playoff season? I would think it’s to try to have great special teams again. It doesn’t seem that the roster changes for 5v5 play are significant enough to impact the results. But definitely current roster changes will impact the PK. And it seems they are chosing Brown in part because of his size and shot blocking on the PK. Will this work? The conundrum is that Brown will have a negative impact 5v5, but a postive impact (greater than Stecher) on the PK because he blocks and is big.
Sorry, can’t square this circle. Not sure if you meant they were both PK1, or it was a typo.
Because Vinny was not PK1.
He’s got two righties on PK1 🤣
Yes. Because strangely enough the lineup was not the same every game of the 25 game playoff run. So yes, deployment on PK1 varied depending on who was dressed and possibly there was a strategy that was team dependent or varied based on game state, score, preformance. etc.
My criteria for indication of PK was is based on PK TOI/GP and PK TOI which you can find here.
Desharnais played 2:57 per game in the playoffs, more than any other player. I would call that PK1. What would you call it?
2024 Playoffs – Ceci -5, Foegele -7, McLeod -7, Desharnais -9. Would you like me to share their fancy stats or you wanna accept that these guys (plus Ryan and Nurse) did not exactly contibute positively to goal differential?
My point is that they were important to the PK. Not that they were amazing 5v5. McLeod and Desharnais are rated in the 99th percentile for the PK. You can see those ratings on the J Fresh player card.
So, they were really good for 2 minutes a night but really not great for the other 10-15 minutes? Seems like your point is that the team is worse but that is the opposite of what the numbers say.
I’m just gonna wonder how many accounts DSF has on this blog?
No. I’m not Harper’s Hair. And I do not have another nick here.
I’m not sure any forecaster has the Oilers weaker this season than last.
Probably because they aren’t weaker than last year. Everyone else in the West is though.
Well Lowetide and Rob Brown do. read above.
Utah and Nashville certainly are not.
A healthy Vegas team, Vancouver if/when Demko returns likely not.
Dallas with the emergence of Harley, progression from Stankhoven, the addition of Mavrik Bourque and a return to form by Hintz and Robertson could be better.
It seems both Landeskog and Nichushkin will return to Colorado’s lineup and Makar should be fully healthy so that will boost their lineup immensely.
Making generalizations from observations on pre-season games is a no-go because pre-season games aren’t a representative sample of regular season games. Having said that, it would’ve been nice if the team didn’t get waxed in the pre-season games they lost. That’s… disconcerting.
For me, one thing to watch is the physical, mental, and emotional fallout from the SC Finals loss. This pre-season feels different. Like the team is ruminating. Other teams, being younger, will have levels of enthusiasm at the start that we likely won’t, and also because we went further than they did but were denied. I think the returning players are still processing that. So our redemption path is much longer than the season goals for other teams, and we’ve had less time to reload and get ready to restart. Younger players would recover more quickly from the bumps and bruises to body and soul, I expect, and we don’t have those. We’re a veteran group, with more talent in aggregate than any other roster in the league… pretty sure this is true.
But, as veterans, the team has to pack a lunch and show up for work every day. Given how small the margins are in hockey and given I don’t think the team is that fancy, they’re otherwise going to get beat. Not because of a specific structural flaw like size or speed or 2RD, but because they’re still lingering on a terrible loss.
what would aq team give for Lavoie? He’ll be on waivers soon enough
This is from Ed From Edmonton at OilersNation:
Not overly familiar with that list, but TF Wollansky and Kole Lind stand out to me from LTs profiles during their draft year(s).
not sure if any of the above have the size, speed, age, contract, and 28 goals in 66 AHL games last year
I’d just risk Lavoie on waivers. We wouldn’t get/don’t want a marginal NHL player back and he’s a better option for a call up than most of our AHL players.
It looks like Jackson had a plan.
McLeod was leaving, he brought on Savoie
Minus some speed but he was counting on Henrique as third line center.
Signs Arvidson – excellent. Then Skinner – okay. I’d rather have Holloway pushing for that spot.
Signs Brown as a heavyweight. No doubt Brown gets a chance. Not sure his motivation though, he just signed for 3 years.
Decided Ryan and Perry are staying. Very poor decision.
Decides that Janmark-Henrique- Brown are the third line. Very poor decision.
The offer sheets were a crushing blow. Somewhere in the turnover of people they miss or fail to assess the risk properly. Holloway states it was weird and no action from Oilers. Agent told them about the offer sheet on the table, yet no action from Oilers. This was the biggest mistake of the off season.
They scramble to recover. Move Ceci, grab Emberson . Grab Podkolzin. Not bad recovery.
All in all, I’m sure they did not intend to come into the season older, slower, smaller.
They have underestimated the effect of losing 4 young fast players.
They have overestimated the supposed third line. They also overestimate the contribution that Ryan and Perry can bring.
They failed to get any hard nosed players. They failed to get speed or identity on a fourth line.
Defence they tried to do the right things. Again, off sheet was devastating. Hard to assess all the tryouts. They certainly didn’t get much assurance.
It look like a huge amount of pressure on McDavid and Leon to carry the team again.
Kinger points out the Jack Campbell miss assessment.
For a team that was so darn close, I feel they buggered up the off season.
They haven’t even played a real game yet.
Yes, the season has not yet begun, pre-season over, it is a time to give an off season assessment.
This is a good team, expectations are a great team.
I would enjoy hearing other off season summaries.
Getting McDavid’s ride or die mate Leon signed to an extension was the real goal of the off-season. Holloway didn’t produce jack playing on a line with Leon. Getting Skinner and Arvidsson was about showing Leon some love.
Captain Jack … nice guy but also a bit fragile … he couldn’t keep it together even after going home to Michigan … finally realized he needed help. Not sure that would’ve happened in a different scenario. I bet he’d be toiling away in the Bake, still trying to resurrect his career if he didn’t get bought out.
Whoever it was on the pro scouting team that recommended signing Brown should be fired immediately.
The off season is done with, it’s time to start talking about the new season. We’ve all grumbled enough about the off season. Start something fresh. We find out tomorrow
about the final roster going into the new season. Then we’ll have something to grumble about. Because your right, this is a great team with high expectations and that’s worth grumbling about.
Yet I see very few projections that don’t expect that back in the SCF this season – most winning it.
Wow – Here I am thinking the season hadn’t started yet and I am reading how the Oilers completely failed.
What day is it? I must have pulled a Rip Van Winkle and snoozed through the entire season.
Tell me who won the Stanley Cup? I am still sleepy headed I guess!
It was a very short off-season. You’re in the preseason. You experiment. You have new players you’re trying to fit in and get your timing down. It’s understandable that they don’t look in synch – and that makes them look slower right now. You can not expect that the team is going to approach these games with the same intensity of the playoffs and it showed.
What I did like about last nights game was going up against a hard forecheck helps you prepare for what to expect in the season. There were some moments of struggle, but they handled it far better and I also thought last night the team created some good scoring chances along the way, but only cashed once.
Let’s see what gives in the regular season before we start the panic?
To me, it was a tail of two off seasons.
Good to great:
Skinner- top line talent at a reasonable hit.
Arvy— quality second line player.
Savoie— got younger and cheaper.
Drai signing
Poor to horrendous:
The offer sheet situation was a mess. Losing Broberg and Holloway and the possibility of value contracts is Griffin Reinhart level asset management.
Tale lol. Writing on WG’s phone.
Losing Holloway and Broberg,is the management decision of Oilers history.PERIOD!!!
Skinner I don’t like that signing. I would have rather kept Holloway. Him Arvidsson and Drai would have been a handful on the forecheck
Skinner is a great pickup for a team that needs a trigger on the pp. which won’t happen here
Skinner scored 24 goals in a down season last year.
Skinner had 37 goals and 82 points the prior season
Holloway had 9 goals and 18 points in his career – Skinner likely has months that look like that.
I don’t agree with the last sentance – Skinner has like one season were he was a big PP guy – his value is that he produces at 5 on 5.
Over the last 3 years, he has more goals at 5 on 5 than Ovie, Drai, Kaprizov, Tkachuk, Tkachuk, Guentzel, etc.
They were offered market standard deals that would have had them on value deals. The contracts they signed take away the value deal aspect.
This is not correct. Show me where they were offered any deal from the Oilers and turned it down . Oilers were absent from the bargaining table.
Accounts are the Holloway was offered 1, 2 and 3 year deals and Broberg was offered in the $1.2MM range.
The Oilers were not absent and ignoring these RFAs – there have been no accounts of that.
I was once in Freecloud Records and a kid held up two Rancid albums and asked the owner which one he should get. The owner didn’t say a word and just handed him a copy of London Calling.
McDavid’s #97 to be retired by the Erie Otters on January 10th.
So, Wakely remains out of the lineup.
It’s hard to see a way for him to get back in, considering their three overage slots are already filled by their captain and a set of twin brothers who have always played together in the O.
I suspect NB does Wakely a solid and deals him to a team that has a vacant overage slot. Or maybe he goes overseas instead?
Is he able to be signed to a pro contract and play in Bakersfield instead after already having been assigned to Junior? Not great that he can’t get into the lineup unless he’s injured.
He would be age-eligible for the AHL, but there’s likely no room for him there, hence his current status in limbo.
I suppose the ECHL could have been an option too.
https://x.com/bob_stauffer/status/1842583471254049215?s=61
Pre-Season is over.
The biggest surprise was Noah Philp.
He created 5v5 scoring chances in every game.
Finished 56% in the faceoff circle.
Was second amongst forwards in hits.
Supported the puck defensively.
A 6’3″ right-shot center…he will play NHL games this season
Where would Ryan & Perry be without Philp & Podkolzin?
Perry should be on waivers.Ryan shoul be 13th forward.Lavoie should be on 4th line with Pod and Philp.
I would suggest that Lavoie should be on the 3rd line and Janmark on the 4th
And Podz on the RW.
Lavoie-Henrique-Brown
Janmark-Philp-Podz
— Not much has been said about Jack Campbell. It’s such a massive fail on the part of the Edmonton Oilers and millions pissed away in cap space for many years.
— Any semblance of due-diligence and they wouldn’t have had to buy him out only to get signed then entered a program that takes care of his salary.
— Obviously hope he gets better, but a better outcome was right in front of the Oilers. He doesn’t suddenly need whatever services he’s availing himself too now that he didn’t need a few months ago prior to buying him out.
— Seems Oilers did no heavy lifting or actual investigation other than that they didn’t want him as a NHL goalie.
— That’s a lot of talent and salary cap that management have lost : it’s a real red flag IMO, resulting in a less than optimal roster construction amd a smaller window.
Very interesting. Of course we don’t know everything but certainly seems like a red flag.
There has been a few that lead to questions about new management.
Most things are skeletons falling out of Kenny’s closet. I commented when Campbell started doing interviews pre first camp that he was off and it wouldn’t likely work out
That they have cleaned up so much already to me is impressive. We will see how it shakes out. Holland was the right guy to turn the ship around probably, or one of them, but they should have moved Bobby somewhere and moved Kenny up and got a more current GM in earlier
It’s not easy to respect LT’s wishes and comment on players. There are other issues I think still with players and where they are at that we see playing out on the ice, that I won’t be surprised to read about in the next years
It’s a game changer if they could of LTIR Campbell. It’s all speculation how he was handled by Holland and then Jackson. He did sign a contract with Detroit with the dreams of making the team and returning to pedigree form. I really liked Jack and the Wolves were after him from the get go. Things might have turned for him if they would of played him against Vegas when he was in the zone. Not getting that deserved opportunity in my opinion broke him.
— sure there is speculation: here’s what they didn’t do:” hey before we buy him out maybe we should investigate it there is anything going on that has prevented him from being the goalie we know he was capable of being. This is a massive hit we are taking. Let’s not leave anything to chance.
— and sure the RedWings clearly did not do due diligence either. But it’s just a min contract so far leas implications
— it’s just speculation but I’d be fairly certain they just concluded: well he’s not the goalie we thought he is and he was signed by the former GM so let’s cut our losses.
— Man that buried money is so costly and months later his new team gets to bury him and do right by the human.
— That should have been the Oil. It wasn’t the trade that caused whatever is ailing him. All the facts were there to uncover (and for a best of class operation to act accordingly )
All I know is if Jack was on Vegas or the Islanders he’s on LTIR Island as we speak.
Blaming the Oilers management for not considering LTIR is, frankly, lazy. Like, News of the World level interpretation of current events.
You don’t think EDM (or DET, for that matter) employs a sports psychologist who reports to management?
This is such a rampant drive by character assassination of both the Oilers and Jack Campbell that it’s galling.
You don’t know squat about what happened behind closed doors. None of us do.
Soup had to be the one willing to enrol in the PA’s assistance program. None of us know what his tipping point was, or when it occurred.
So many presumptions.
And the hindsight! Everyone is so incredibly correct all the time and based on virtually no actual facts! I am in awe.
Hindsight is 20/20, and the grass is always greener due to the amount of “fertilizer” applied….
It’s too bad about Jack. It might have helped if he could have made the Red Wings. He wants to be an NHL goalie. His reality has been turned upside down.
I thought he might bounce back playing for his hometown team, presumably with better family support. Guess it took going home to realize he needed to get help.
I was going to express potential concern that Rodrigue isn’t on waivers today thinking why wait until tomorrow and maybe there is a small chance Pickard isn’t ready for the season but then I realized that Drake wasn’t on waivers either so they probably just waiting until tomorrow for those two and, potentially, Brown.
Sort of adding to the chorus, but I just can’t read too much into any preseason performance, individual or team wise. There is just way too much volatility, and no where near enough correlation between preseason results and regular season success, to view it with any concrete takeaways.
Just my opinion of course, but if I never have to watch another preseason game, it will be too soon. Bring on Game 1.
Jesse looks happy.
https://x.com/penguins/status/1842360996498964569?s=61
Thanks. Hope he has a great year
A down vote?😂😂 why hate Jesse?
No Pizza?
Colorado claimed John Ludvig and everyone else (including Ethan Bear) clear – per Fridge.
I’m sure Ruff likes McLeod speed and PK work but how soon before hardass Ruff tires of his perimeter play.
It’s probably fine unless they see playoffs and RM goes into the fetal position, if he chooses to again. That won’t fly
Ryan could easily have had 2-3 side breakaways a game like Glenn Anderson used to. Ryan could of been the taller brother of the roadrunner. Ryan could of been a hero for decades in Edmonton this playoff but with his refusal to go to the hoop and create made this player hard to like. This Savoie kid is going to be money by the new year.
Best thing about the Oilers preseason is that no one got injured (other than a sore neck for Pickard).
The only jobs available were for 4C/13F and 6/7D. Everyone else was locked in. Not at all surprised that they looked completely disinterested just going through the motions.
I’m not sure that Lavoie has any trade value until after he clears waivers – similar to Samorukov who, just like Kostin, had cleared waivers at the time of trade.
With Philp at 4C, is your thought to waive Ryan (or Perry) or to run with the 14F (including Kane) taking the accrual down to near nothing (in particular until Jarventie is healthy enough to assign as he’ll carry a cap hit in the $100K range until then).
If they do keep Dermott as #7, presumably its over Brown and that will be for a cap savings of up to $225K, depending on what Dermott signs for (it COULD be a smidge over league min).
The account of Frank and Bob do not lead one to believe that Brown will be hitting the waiver wire (which would need to happen today or tomorrow for the Monday roster submission).
I mentioned Dermott as something I would do, not something the Oilers would do.
OP is there anything preventing them from signing Dermott a day (or two) after the first day of the season?
No, I don’t believe there is.
true unless another team swooped in
I believe a PTO can hang around for an extended period with a team. That may have changed, but I do know that has happened in the past. Dermott might be waiting for the Oilers or another team to decide, so hanging around in Edmonton might make sense.
Pete’s guy Chris Kelly did that, practiced with the team before he went to the non-NHLer Olympics, right?
It appears to me that they’ll send Rodrique & Caggiula to the Condors. Philp is the 4c, Perry & Ryan are the 4RWer’s & Podz is 4LW. So yeah, 14 forwards (including Kane) much to my chagrin, taking the accrual down to next to nothing. Brown stays and they can’t sign Dermott, or they sign him to a two-way contract. I don’t know if he would be waiver exempt, so they could lose him to waivers. Then they lose Lavoie to waivers. But they eventually will have Jarventie ,or Savoie, when they suddenly figure out Perry is no longer an NHL player. I have faith they couldn’t be that stupid.
Rodrigue and Caggiula being waived and assigned are no-brainers but there is no certainty in the rest of what you post:
1) Philp may be on the opening roster but he very well may not be.
2) If Philp is on the opening roster, they may carry 13 healthy forwards and crater their accrual to start or they may actual waive Ryan (that would have to happen tomorrow).
3) We do not know that Brown has made the roster – we will know tomorrow at noon.
4) They could sign Dermott to a 2-way deal but that is of no consequence for us. He’d still be subject to waivers
5) They could waive Brown tomorrow and sign Dermott – they could keep Brown and sign Dermott and waive Dermott.
6) It looks like Lavoie will be on waivers tomorrow but we can’t be certain – if he is its also far from a certainty that he’s claimed but there is some risk there (there wasn’t real risk last season, in my opinion).
I most certainly hope not. I don’t believe Caggiula & Rodrique require waivers. Could be wrong though.
If they waive anyone IMO it should be Brown & Perry, not Ryan or Lavoie.
Caggiula and Rodrigue both do require waivers but close to 0% chance either gets claimed
For me, the team has played like a team that is full of veteran players locked in to their spots in the lineup (for the most part) and were slogging through an exhibition season.
Of course the games means something – mostly for the youngers players and tweeners trying to leave a lasting impression and, on this team, to grab maybe a 4C/13F spot.
I would suggest that the individual play of established veterans in the exhibition season means absolutely nothing. Jeff Skinner did very little. At the same time, in 2022/23, he produced a single point in the exhibition season and then went on to score 37 goals and produce 82 points. McDavid had zero shots last night, was a minus player and had little impact – are we concerned about his play?
I would also suggest that team performance in the exhibition season means absolutely nothing. Last season the NJD went 7-0 and then missed the playoffs. The Oilers won their last 3 games by a combined score of 14-4 and then lost 8-1 in the opening game.
The NYR had one win last exhibition season – I think they did OK in the regular season, you know, winning the President’s trophy.
The Jets had 2 wins in last year’s exhibition season and finished 4th in league standings at the end of the year.
What we have witnessed over the last 8 games, as far at veteran play and team play means all but nothing – in my opinion.
Wednesday can’t come soon enough – its going to be a great game!
We can only hope.
They may suck to start the season but history tells us that a poor exhibtion season is not predictive of anything come the regular season (and vice versa).
We look old and slow. So, what if its only preseason and it doesn’t matter. How about the players looking to win a job, they look poor and maybe the vets are rubbing off on them with the lackluster effort. I prefer we worked hard all the time and give an honest effort. This should be the motto. Doing these little things correctly is good practice.Practise hard and play hard. Win every shift and never take a shift off. I hate the wait and play hard late in the game attitude.
It’s not physically possible to “never take a shift off” and stay healthy for what we hope will be at least 100+ games. The balance in the first leg of the season is to pace themselves as players while still working hard enough to win. A game away from winning the cup last year showed us the start can be bumpy, it’s the final product that matters.
Veterans don’t run around like chickens risking injury in the preseason. With very few youngsters on the team to do the dirty work this group will need stretches of games from the group to do accomplish this until the real season begins in the spring.
And those that do get injured … see Laine, Patrick.
I thought Laine would be a perfect fit for the Habs and the fans. There’s lots of marginal yahoos going balls out trying to make their respective rosters. I’ll take a boring low event preseason over losing players like the poor Habs did.
There was no reason for Laine to try to split the two defenders like that in a meaningless preseason game. No way that Leaf defenseman should have let him by … that’s the kind of thing that gets a guy on the bubble to make the NHL sent back down to the minors.
Between the idiocy of the Andersson cheap shot up high and this low blow with his leg being bent like a pretzel I feel for him. Watching that Finnish Junior team go to town who had Aho as having not only the best career but lapping both Patrik and Jesse
Was there a single event all pre-season?
Skinner is the invisible man.
Not a good audition… I know; blah, blah, blah, pre-season, but shouldn’t it be easier to score or show something, anything playing against lesser competition?
Or, he’s just trying to figure out how to assimilate his game into the Oilers system without the individual play he’s been used to on non playoff teams.
They need J Skinner to adjust to attacking from the slightly higher position coming into the zone. He’s used to having to lead as you can tell by watching him push to the front. Leon finds shooters further back, and Arvidsson is clearly the “get my nose dirty guy”.
Slight tweak and he’ll have days to use his elite finishing skills.
I think they still need better tactics when teams take away the middle. It’s preseason but Connor still doesn’t try to draw the attention to and set up someone they lose. Maybe his wingers don’t help enough there. But he has to, solo attacks are risky and don’t work often, when he doesn’t see something. Needs more deception in his game and support. You can’t skate through teams when there is nothing there. Coaches should be designing tactics, if they aren’t. If they are do it
This, all day.
Gretz used to love when he’d get 2-3 shadows trying to clog up lanes. Almost made the game easier for a while, until teams would counter adjust. Then he’d just exploit everyone all over again.
Not a lot of intensity in any of the pre season games really. They look like they are just feeling it out and trying to get used to each other. Let’s hope they get it going Wed against Winnipeg.
Very interested to see if they go with 7 D or 13 forwards.
Philp has been great , but I think they will send him down to get a ton of minutes in Bakersfield. I think Lavoie is injured ( not sure) and if so will probably stay here for now?
I think Brown has been terrible but do they keep him as the 7th D man? Can’t see any team claiming that contract on waivers if sent down.
Let’s get the season rolling
GO OIL
I think we’re going to regret giving up some of our team speed this last offseason
Prospectalia!
It’s a super Saturday with the NCAA joining the fray this weekend, as ten NAmateurs could see action. (Of course, this counts Wakely, who could return to action today or never. Who knows?! He is included unless more information comes to light.)
BU enters the new season as the #3 ranked team in the country, now boasting Copponi in addition to Lachance as Oilers prospects. (BTW, Fischer’s ND squad is ranked #19.)
The OHL contingent had a good night yesternight with three starring performances, two goals, an assist and a win. An even better night is possible if Akey can make his season debut.
North Bay (Wakely) @ 1 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 2 p.m.
Boston University (Copponi, Lachance) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
St. Lawrence (Mazura) @ 5 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey) @ 5:30 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Kelsey time.
NOTE: As the better half has successfully completed another orbit of the sun, she has planned for us a multitude of activities. Thus a Sporadic Update Warning is now in effect.
Wow, many more people to track this season. Allow me to thank you (I do it rarely and that’s on me) for providing the group with this information. Tell your better half that we all think she’s lucky even though, like most of us men reading this, you likely badly outkicked your coverage. 🙂
Firstly, thanks again for this space which allows me to post prospect updates, tortured puns and random nuttiness.
There are 13 NAmateurs to track this season, the most since I started doing this three years ago. Next season will be substantially fewer with Wakely aging out and only 2 of the 6 NCAA’s eligible to return. And perhaps more picks out the door before the ’25 draft.
And yes, I married “up”. 😀
Married “up”? We ALL did!
Really appreciate these posts Tarkus! You have a way with words!
I’m a simple man, the prospect updates are fine and dandy, but I’m really here to find out what time zone you’ll be broadcasting from. It is a marvelous bit. 😆
I keep waiting for Irvine and Maidstone!!
Has he come close… maybe Lashburn?
Pretty sure I gave Maidstone a shoutout sometime since spring.
Irvine is not far from my old stomping grounds. Good little meat shop just west of town. (For the uninitiated, it’s pronounced “Irvin” and not “Ir-vine”.). And it too shall get shouted out eventually. 800+ communities will take a few years to cycle through!
Agreed on that final paragraph, depending on the Lavoie return of course. This is the way.
We are firmly in Kyle Brodziak territory at this point with young(ish) Mr. Philp, and while making comparisons, Emberson seems to me like a bigger Matt Benning with higher upside. I view both of these comps as complimentary to all players involved.