The Edmonton Oilers begin the day in second place, Pacific Division. The team is four points back of Anaheim Ducks, both teams have eight games on the schedule. Edmonton still has to worry about Vegas Golden Knights, just one point behind (Oilers have a game in hand) with a brand new coach and should get a bounce. The Los Angeles Kings and Seattle Kraken are too far down now, left to tell each other fairytales. Bleeding out is the worst.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-1-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0) 2-1-1
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1) 2-2-0
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) 2-0-0
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 8-4-1
- Season Record: 37-28-9, 83 points in 74 games
The Oilers beat my projection and look to be a good bet for 90 points by season’s end. There were many times during the year when that total seemed out of reach. I had the tragedy all written for you (‘the searchers all say they’d have made Whitefish Bay if they put 15 more miles behind her”) but I’m just as glad to leave it in the vault.
You can only write the stories that play out, but one can hope for suspense and a stunning climax that rewards the reader with something memorable. The epilogue can tie all the pieces together and we’ll all share a memory that will echo across time forever.
I set out to chronicle the Edmonton Oilers online over 20 years ago, and have been close to a truly great story (Oilers win Stanley!) three times. I am hoping for a fourth opportunity but am aware that time is fleeting and this edition of the team may already have peaked. It is not in my nature to truly believe it to be true, but at my age acknowledging painful possibilties is prudent. Some days are diamonds, some days are stone. Sometimes the hard times won’t leave you alone.
The Toronto Maple Leafs were in the window to win for several years, but things have fallen apart for the organization. Yesterday, the club dispatched the 18th GM in team history (Brad Treliving) after a wildly disappointing three-year run. The peak Auston Matthews years in Toronto came with Kyle Dubas as general manager and Sheldon Keefe as coach. The team won 50 games twice, and won a round in the playoffs in 2023. The summer will see new management and likely a new coach. Matthews is signed through the summer of 2028, two more seasons after this one. Connor McDavid will be a free agent, same summer.
The importance of remaining competitive is never more clear than it is today. The Oilers boast McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard in the heart of the order, plus several quality veterans past 30 who remain productive. Those 30+ gents are going to fade, and that’s why Vasily Podkolzin, Matt Savoie and others are so important. The TML are the early distant warning for your Edmonton Oilers. Adapt, or die.
On the Lowdown today, it’s the youths versus me. I’ll ‘Old Man’ them as long as I can, but you might want to send in a text of support a time or two just to give me a life line. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
Looking at the bubble teams, SJ has the most games left at 10 but their finish is fully within their control. Their schedule is ugly with 3 back to backs in the last 16 days but they have two games each against ANA, NAS and CHI. The other 4 teams they play are Leafs, Oilers, Nucks and Jets.
It’s a huge stretch but if they can win 6, especially the ones against CHI and NAS, that puts them at 89 points. Or they can approach the final 10 games as two 5 game series where if they can win 3 games in each 5 game segment, they give themselves a good chance to play themselves into the playoffs
I think the cut line this year will be 90 pts in the West.
St.Louis and Hofer will do us a solid and beat the Ducks tonight.
Any rumours on Leon timeline?
Yes,
He’s rumored to be out until the start of the playoffs
He’s also rumoured to be back before the start of the playoffs.
Cheers in pain, glorious feel good pain.
Max Jones
16 GP
56% GF
65% xGF
73% high danger chances
16GP 5-3-8
2.24 5×5 points/60
1st in hits/60 (20)
Lazar is next at 15, Freddi 14, Podz 13
I don’t care that his IPP is 100% or that he is shooting 16%. he should be a fixture on the 4th line in playoffs. And has been discussed today on here they should resign him for 2x1M.
16 games is still a small sample size, but it’s not that small. As things stand right now, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be in the playoff line up.
16GP 3-2-5.
He’s playing well right now, so sure, keep him in the lineup. If he can keep this up, he could be a real playoff contributor, absolutely.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. 28YO tweener? A lot of these guys are best when they’re fighting for a lineup spot, not when their contract assures them of one.
Ah thanks for fixing the point totals. He was pretty much an established bottom 6 player in Anaheim in 22-23 and 23-24, though it was a bad team. He was scoring at a 20 point pace at 5v5 both years so there is some offence there. Not sure if he got injured or what but then didnt play in Boston. If he can score 20 points and hit a ton and do ok in possession thats a pretty much perfect 4th liner to me.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski scored his 2nd of the playoffs and added an assist as S’toon won Game 3. They now lead the series 2-1.
Nicholl and Lafreniere were not only denied soup, their teams were denied wins. London and Kamloops both are in 3-0 series deficits.
The Oilers are OVER real .500 for I believe the second time this season. I don’t think they’ve ever been 2 games above even in total W-L.
Two weeks ago I thought they might never make it this season.
Corner officially turned. It only took until game 75. But who’s complaining?
Heck of a defensive game. That said, that Seattle team is going nowhere real fast. Four third lines makes for some ugly hockey.
The magic number is 4.5 for LA or 5 for SJ (combined wins and losses) to clinch a playoff spot, and first in the division is very much up for grabs.
An optimistic March following the February from hockey hell!
Not sure I’m on the “turned the corner” bandwagon yet.
Some positive signs for sure like the 4 wins in a row, much better compete level in the defensive zone, contributions from bottom of the line up, Walman/Savoie playing their best hockey, etc.
I want to see them go 8-1-1 or something like that and blow away some teams.
Yeah, Seattle had lost 5 of their previous 6. That’s the kind of team you should be shutting out on your 8-1-1 run.
This is our first four-game win streak. We didn’t have our first three-game streak until 2/3 of the way through the season. By contrast, Buffalo – they of 14 straight losing years – are 12-1-2 in their last 15. They were 20-5-0 in their prior 25.
This team has had streaks like that in each of their past three seasons. Sometimes in the playoffs. But this year’s model would be fighting for a playoff spot in the East.
Two goals from the Bottom Six??? In this Economy?
Awesome win! Great defensive effort from everyone to constantly contest the puck all over the ice.
Nice depth player and goalie contributions.
Terrible 2nd half after a really good start, but Ingram won them the game anyway.
The powerplay needs electroshock.
The Oilers gave up zero high danger shot attempts in the third period at 5 on 5.
Far from terrible.
Happy birthday Ingram – I hope you enjoy this bagel.
#NeverInDoubt
Four…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don’t look now but 4 game winning streak! Ingram with a big shut out!!
Great to see the birthday boy get a shutout. Are the oilers the first team in history to make the playoffs with 2 goalies who cleared waivers in the last year?
Actually with three goalies who all cleared waivers.
Ingram was VERY good tonight.
Jarry still starts Thursday – don’t run Ingram in to the ground.
It’d make Oiler life a lot easier in their bid to hoist Lord Stanley. They’re playing more connected hockey. This helps the tenders and is so important in imposing their transition/possession game on the opponent.
Yeah Jarry probably starts but I hope the coach has a very short leash.
I hope that Jarry has another solid game behind a solid team performance.
A short lease negates the “don’t run Ingram in to the ground” premise – he needs a full night off.
Nice way to finish them off
Best defensive effort of the season.
Connor McBiscuit boots is here to soak up that gravy.
I would like to know how that is a penalty on Hyman… meanwhile McDavid getting mugged on his way to the bench and nothing
Very soft call to give Kracken a chance to get back in the game. Typical NHL officiating. Thankfully we got the kill.
So many kills lately!
The second period was shaky, but this third period has been absolutely suffocating by the oilers. Even Jack giving props to the oilers for the quality puck support.
Getting cute at the defensive blue by Kap (and Dickinson) led to another full 90 seconds of pressure.
Savoie looks like he’s getting faster/quicker – he must have six shot attempts tonight.
At least. His edge work is elite. He’s so agile.
If Hutson and Howard, both rookies in the AHL with better numbers than what Savoie managed last year, can turn out as impact top-9 forwards, all of a sudden this team’s competitive window opens up a few more years.
And I think between them and Jarventie and some of the Euros, they will develop some good NHL talent.
The big question marks are on D and G at that point. Who takes over big minutes at 1LD (as Ekholm ages and is less impactful. Started this year) and 2RD? And, of course, who stewards the blue paint?
I’m a lot more bullish on this team than I was this time last year, honestly. I thought last season was going to be their last really competitive shot. So I disagree with LT a bit here.
You know it’s a bad chance when Jack and Louie are like “dang, the Oilers haven’t given up a chance that good and left a guy that wide open in a number of games”
Classic Nurse.
Leave the veteran with 300+ NHL goals with the puck between the hash marks of both circles. 🤦♂️
Darnell leading in 5v5 ice time again. 59% xGF. Coffey loves him.
Watching Nurse just flat out give Eberle the lane…my gawd…
I watched some Jets Hawks pre game. The Hawks were dominating based on system. Watching this is awful. Knoblauch’s system is terrible. They make mediocre teams look significant. They make any goalie look Vezina
It’s perimeter with little puck support, and no plan for attacking. Out please
It worked in the AHL, doesn’t NHL
No wonder Knoblauch doesn’t have any NHL results…
He has a roster with 3 players ranking all time, and they struggle with mediocre teams with playoffs in limbo and can’t finish on back up goalies. Constantly leaving players open in the scoring areas. Messed up for me, YMMV
Their talent takes them where they go, a better coach gets them all the way
Those 3 players are:
1) Leading the NHL in scoring
2) Leading the NHL d-men in scoring
3) 97 points in 65 games
The team is fourth in the NHL in scoring.
Citing the 3 top players and cite struggling offence doesn’t seem to line up with reality.
I know you think that even puck should be over a goalie’s shoulder and in but, in reality, its not that simple, right?
They’re playing so connected of late. Smart passes (for the most part). Winning puck battles. Playoff hockey
Jack and Louie have called about 1/3 of this game tonight.
They’re just a distraction from the game
Agreed
Goals by Jones & Kapanen. Exactly as they drew it up against the
MammothKraken.I see what you did there
That last Connor play is exactly why they can’t score on some goalies. He had a very low percentage chance of scoring, if he drives and pulls off looking for a supporting player in front and they shoot up it’s a goal
As per usual they are banging around the pads in a butterfly league
Oh and that’s how the kittens beat us twice. Coach out simply for no change here
That was a DOMINANT period by the Oilers.
Gave up nothing.
Pretty nice first period! Two more please.
Who’s counting shots on goal? The Lapanen goal made it 11.
Kapanen.
Ok Pelvis
Is he from Northern Finland?
Lots of time left, keep it going fellas. Never protect, push smart
Kasperi busts a Kapanen-em!
SNAPSITIN!
Great play and finish by Kap – he needed that as he’s been in one of his struggle slumps recently (and was a liability last game). Great stuff.
Kapy Kaps one!!!!!
Walman starting to look like playoff Walman.
Its been 5 games now – essentially since Emberson came back – its 3rd pairing minutes (and there is a big gap in the minutes the 2nd and 3rd pairing are getting) but he is indeed “back”.
Huge if true.
If Walman is back this D is pretty damn good afternoon the addition of Murphy. Tons of options for pairings too if anyone is struggling.
Fantastic back-pressure defence by Bouchard after the McDavid errant pass.
TO THE MAX!
Mad Max is going to get another 2 year contract.
If he wants to sign 2 years at league min – I’m all for it.
If he gets a couple more goals 2 years at 1 million per year.
I don’t think he’s re-signing in Edmonton
Why not? If we sign him to a deal Hes either here or Cali making 1M a year.
He believes he is an NHL player full stop. He said this year has been confusing. Probably because he has played well and produced when up but was sent down.
let’s see how he’s deployed in the playoffs. If he’s healthy scratched he’s outta here is my guess.
can’t fault the guy for believing in himself
I missed that he said it in an interview? Yeah he is a pretty good 13th forward/4th liner. This year has been tough with Mangiapane / Henrique taking up roster spots
I don’t recall him saying quite that – more like “it’s been a weird year” was the phrase I’ve heard him use a few times. He was playing well when he was sent down but, to be honest, he was “meh” at best in Bako – maybe he was “sulking” at least subconsciously but he was not a physical player in Bako and was probably 80% effort most of the time.
He’s done well since recall, I’ll give him his props, 100%.
— The Counting Goals, probably
Jones with the tip of a Walman shot!!!!!First blood.
Subtle little change of the angle leads to a 4th line goal!
Bosnia upsets Italy. Good news for CanMNT.
Friedman with thoughts the Toronto GM situation including speculation about a few candidates.
Sunny Mehta’s name mentioned.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/why-the-maple-leafs-let-go-of-treliving-and-whats-next/
They are interviewing some good names. This is the type of search JJ/K*tz should have done before hiring JJ/Bowman
— today I “glee listened” to lead talk radio
— Friedman was in and he talked about “facts-based” decision making using data and information
— for sure that’s the future and given the ownership hierarchy of the MLSE it would make sense that the owners would want someone in charge who can provide data to back up decisions: as would any large company beholden to shareholders…
— anyway there is no doubt their search will be miles longer and deeper than what we have seen here and will likely involve a few “layers” of competencies : agents for superstars need not apply …
Yeah it is a good sign for leafs fans that they are talking Gillis, Mehta, Spezza, Lombardi instead of Chiarelli, etc. I do think Kevyn Adams would be useful in some capacity too though he doesn’t get a lot of love.
was also interested to see that Doug Wilson is an advisor in Pittsburgh. I had kind of forgotten about Lombardi and Wilson but they built great teams that were competitive for a long time. What an asset Wilson must be to Dubas.
Stumbled upon this rummaging through NST
Ryan McLeod is 13th in the NHL in primary assist rate 5v5 at 1.1
EDM leader is Draisaitl at 1.09
** This is not a Matt Savoie post **
1.09 < 1,1
?
Oilers 5v5 primary assist rates FW’s:
Leon 1.09
Jones .97
Kapanen .96
McDavid .91
Nuge .71
Henrique .59
Hyman .57
Podkolzin .52
Savoie .48
Dickinson .39
Lazar .38
Samanski .36
Roslovic .21
Frederic .08
Primary Points/60 5v5 FW’s:
Draisaitl 2.01
Jones 1.94
McDavid 1.92
Kapanen 1.79
Hyman 1.56
Podkolzin 1.45
Roslovic 1.24
Nuge 1.21
Savoie 1.03
Lazar .95
Dickinson .78
Samanski .72
Henrique .69
Frederic .42
He’s also leading the NHL in shorthanded goals with 5 I think. Heck of a player. Hopefully he can keep it going in the playoffs. Easy player to cheer for.
—
Not trying to turn this into a Savoie comment, but Savoie is tied for the Oiler’s shortie lead with 2. It would probably take the average fan a lot of guess to figure out who Savoie is tied with.
Thinking about GMs, it must be harder to break in than for players. There are only 32 spots available. Who will trust a rookie GM? That’s why guys with some experience keep cycling through. (Same with coaches, I guess). For newbies, some lower-level experience would be needed, like AGM or managing in the AHL.
having said that, I’m wondering if Keith Gretzky might get a chance someday
That’s not always the case; Kevyn Adams is a recent example of a total neophyte being given the GM reigns.
+1 for neophyte. Excellent word, sir. excellent.
His trade record as interim GM is kind of awesome
Ryan Spooner for Sam Gagner
Cam Talbot for Anthony Stolarz
i have come to appreciate KG over the years, he seems like a good eye test/experienced hockey guy to have around mixed in with the analytics types. Not sure I would want him as GM of my team. But it’s hard to tell how they woukd be once they get the job. Bill Scott is an intriguing name coming up for GM jobs now too. It would be fascinating to hear where all these guys stood on the Broberg/Holloway situation, Hall trade, etc.
Bill “Capologist” Scott, the architect of the failed Vladimir Tkachev contract?
Hahaha I forgot about that. It’s too bad, he was going to be our Martin St Louis
— Craig MacTavish was the GM for that debacle..
And?
Bill Scott, the resident cap expert, was the one who bungled the contract. Failing at, you know, his supposed core competency… the very thing he was being paid to do. He had one job.
I’m sure he’s learned from the debacle and is better for it, but it was frustrating at the time.
Ingram starts tonight.
I presume we’ll see the Hawks on Thursday.