Blackhawks at Oilers, G76 2025-26

A texter to the Lowdown yesterday asked me for my opinion about Paul Coffey’s impact on the Edmonton Oilers defense. My answer was vague, while acknowledging the team has improved in terms of goal suppression and five-on-five GA recently. How much better are the Oilers with Coffey in the fold? It depends on how much time you believe it takes to implement changes.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH

• At home to: CHI, VEG (Expected 1-0-1)
• On the road to: UTA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) 
• At home to: COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-0)
• Expected Record: 4-2-1
• Actual Record: 
• Season Record: 38-28-9, 85 points in 75 games

I have the Oilers finishing with 94 points, we’ll see if they can do it and if that’s enough to win the Pacific. Should the Anaheim Ducks win first place, both the Oilers and Golden Knights would have to consider it at least a mild disappointment. I understand the idea that winning the division isn’t the ultimate goal, but it reflects some things these Oilers aren’t good at every year. Like consistency.

PAUL COFFEY’S IMPACT

On the day Edmonton hired Paul Coffey, the team was allowing (five-on-five) 2.78 GA-60 and owned a 47 percent goal share. The SA-60 (25.32) and HDCA-60 (11.52) were part of the pre-Coffey resume. Expected GA-60 was 2.72 and expected goal share was 51 percent.

Since Coffey was hired, the GA-60 (2.91) is higher, but the goal share (51 percent, 53 expected) is also higher. Here’s where Coffey can claim real success: Edmontons SA-60 is 24.86, a small reduction. The HDCA-60 is 9.45 per 60, miles better than previous totals. The suppression, reflected in shots and high dangers surrendered, is obvious.

Let’s give Coffey two weeks. If we begin the Coffey era 2.0 at March 1, the GA-60 is 2.69. Slightly better than the pre-Coffey numbers (2.78), and the goal share climbs from 47 to 49 percent. Small rise, and fueled by an outstanding 9.62 HDSCA-60.

Coffey’s Oilers have clipped HDSC’s by 2.0 per 60. Frankly, the GA and goal share should be better, and the goaltending in recent games has finally come around.

I can’t tell you Paul Coffey was solely responsible for these improvements. In fact, my guess is there are other elements in play (Connor Murphy, better health for Jake Walman, etc). The Oilers are using the middle of the ice more, the forwards are offering more attractive passing lanes coming out of the zone and the entire forward group is tracking back like demons.

Coffey has helped. All of which makes the verbal surrounding his exit last summer even more baffling. The Oilers moved on from Coffey last summer, and if you read the tea leaves from connected verbal there was a sense Coffey’s deployment of the defense in the final was a root cause of the Florida Panthers win.

What changed? I don’t know. What I do know is that the next time an Oilers player, coach or management person leaves town, I encourage you to take note of those who take the opportunity to be critical of said individual. At best, it’s issue framing unnecessarily (the guy already lost his job). At worst, it’s using the power of the written and spoken word to protect the individuals in management and coaching who remain. That’s a choice made, but it’s your choice not to buy it.

On the Lowdown today, Bagged Milk will help us tee up the Oilers-‘Hawks and we’ll talk plenty about the lineup changes taking place as Trent Frederic returns to the club. I’m pro Josh Samanski, so we’ll start there. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.