The Edmonton Oilers turn prevailing wisdom on its head and spin it around before it lands in a heap just shy of file 13. How on earth could a team that was so vexing for 70 games tear off a five-game run like we’ve just witnessed. Oh, I know, the quality of competition hasn’t been grand, but the Ducks may win the division and the Golden Knights are one goalie from being a wagon. Credit where due, with a giant dollop of wonder surrounding why it took so damn long to get it right. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: CHI, VEG (Expected 1-0-1) 1-0-0
- On the road to: UTA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0)
- At home to: COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 4-2-1
- Actual Record: 1-0-0
- Season Record: 39-28-9, 87 points in 76 games
Oilers caught the Ducks but Anaheim has a game in hand. The division title is in play. In the last 10 games, Edmonton has picked up three standings points, and need the Californians to stumble over the next 10 days. We’ll see. The wildcard is really the wild west currently. It looks like the Mammoth have the first wildcard slot, and the San Jose Sharks hold on to the second one by a single hair. Pushing for the postseason are the Los Angeles Kings, Nashville Predators, Winnipeg Jets (!!), Seattle Kraken and St. Louis Blues (!!!!!!!!!!) in a true photo finish.
- Podkolzin-McDavid-Savoie 11:18, 8-3 shots, 57X, 4-2 HDSC
- Frederic-Dickinson-Kapanen 10:25, 4-3 shots, 61X, 3-2 HDSC
- Hyman-Nuge-Roslovic 9:22, 7-3 shots, 0-1 goals, 39X, 3-4 HDSC
- Henrique-Samanski-Jones 7:27, 4-0 shots, 100X, 2-0 HDSC
Matt Savoie ranks second in scoring as a rookie in the McDavid era. His 15-17-32 in 76 games trails only 97 (16-32-48 in 45 games) and those two are the only ones with 30+ points in a rookie season during this era. My reasonable expectations for Savoie back in August (76 games, 13-24-37, .49 points-game) turned out close enough for jazz. Savoie had five HDSC’s on the night. That’s Hyman territory.
Adam Henrique scored the only five-on-five goal on the night, it had been some time between goals for the veteran. He scored twice in October, crickets since. The third and fourth lines have turned it around in recent days. I was pleased to see Vasily Podkolzin get closer to 20 goals, and he blocked three shots to lead forwards in the category. I wanted to make a point of mentioning McDavid’s pass to Savoie on the disallowed goal. Loving the work of this team right now, glad Samanski stayed in the linup and I thought Trent Frederic had some good moments.
- Nurse-Murphy 16:52, 10-5 shots, 1-1 goals, 57X, 5-7 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 11:52, 6-2 shots, 65X, 3-1 HDSC
- Walman-Emberson 14:40, 7-2 shots, 72X, 5-0 HDSC
- Tristan Jarry 17 of 18, .944
Ekholm and Walman had three blocked shots, Nurse and Murphy two each. I thought the team was strong for most of the first, although a late breakaway allowed Tristan Jarry to save his mates. The second saw Edmonton post some strong offensive numbers, and I thought the passing was crisp. Edmonton faltered a little in the third, giving up a goal but I thought the effort and good habits were there for the Oilers. Nice to see Jarry have a good game.
The Oilers are rolling now, it’s a team effort and the traditional headaches (goalies, third and fourth lines) have eased and are performing well. The Oilers are in a good place today.
Oilers are rolling. Here’s why.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7166761/2026/04/03/edmonton-oilers-stats-defensive-tweaks/
The Oilers could have their worst season since 2020 and yet win their division for the first time since 1987 🙃
Clattenburg hunting for a fight in the last 5 seconds of the blow out loss.
The Big Boy Anaheim Money Pucks get slaughtered by the St Louis Snooze
The Oilers own the tiebreaker vs. the Ducks and will be in first place, Ducks in 2nd, after tonight!
Big save by Pickard and rebound goes out to the blue line and is picked up by Hutson for a clear 2 on 1 – for the second time, he keeps and shoots and scores. This time from the bottom of the circles on the right side (again).
But the Blues are a “non-playoff team”. I thought this was supposed to be easy
6-3 Blues/Ducks via Holloway
Sure wish we had matched that offer sheet.
Not on our team but still finding a way to help us out.
Savoie card:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HE_5RYragAAUw3T?format=jpg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HE_3FL_WAAACp7y?format=jpg&name=medium
Dom’s Bouchard card
Blues 4 Ducks 2
Blues 5 ducks 2
Blues 6 Ducks 2
Gulls score two (Pickard leaks one from distance).
I guess the dude celebrated too hard as 10 seconds after the goal, Clattenburg goes after and jumps him…..
Keppen bangs home the rebound of the Prokop shot.
2-0.
Hutson snipes one that trickles in from the face-off dot off the rush – almost a 2 on 0 with Howard.
1-0.
Come on St. Louis!
Summarizing!
Lewandowski drew a helper as Saskatoon won Game 5. They now take a 3-2 series lead and can win it on home ice.
Nicholl won 14 of 24 draws (58.3%) but the Knights were blanked and bow out in five. He is age-eligible to return as an overager next season, but being named one of the three stars tonight (the game was in London) might imply the Knights don’t expect him back, especially now that he has signed.
The number of NAmateurs whose seasons continue is now three, not four, not two, excepting thou shall proceed to three. Five is right out.
Prospecting takes a break until overmorrow.
I don’t see why Nicholl would return to junior – I guess he only had half a season but I think he’ll be turning pro – would expect him to joint the Condors shortly (probably won’t play though).
One could argue that because of that half-season, the Oilers might want him to get a full season as 1C — barring London acquiring one — next year.
He’d likely get more playing time (and a letter) with the Knights, important considering how much time he missed.
Ex Oilers doing their best to keep Anaheim from taking sole top spot back as Holloway scores to lead the Blues to a 2-1 lead. Broberg with an assist on the first goal too.
5v5 xGF%
Jones 62.7
Samanski 58.1
McDavid 56.4
Hyman 56.3
Drai 53.9
Nuge 52.9
Pod 51.6
Henrique 50.6
Kapanen 50.4
Roslovic 50
Frederic 49.8
Lazar 49.5
Savoie 49.4
Dickie 46.3
moneypuck which allegedly is closer to accurate than NST
Uncle Lowetide, you’ve got Frederic playing on two lines
Corrected, and I thank you.
I enjoy reflecting on the season as it nears it’s end. In typical Oilers fashion, what a debacle. Has there been a season in the McDavid era that was dominant? Void of questions about the roster, coaching and effort?
This season feels a bit different than others. Finishing the season with two new goalies, youth that has actually delivered and more depth than years past (in my opinion).
I’ve enjoyed this year’s journey, as the three gambles above have turned out, finally. If one of three hadn’t? Wouldn’t be fighting for first in the pillow fight division in my opinion.
I can’t name an Oilers player that isn’t playing better than earlier in the season. Maybe Stastney? No matter what happens, I’m probably more excited for the post season than in years past.
The first 80% of this season had a DOD feel to it. Seemed like every magic bean was a dud and nothing was working. This late season turnaround has been most unexpected. I’m finally excited for oilers hockey again for the first time since mid-October. More importantly, I’m feeling much more bullish about our chances 2-3 years down the road than I was at the start of the season. Much as SB seemed to bungle the NHL-level free agent signings, he has, imo, re-opened our window of contention with the likes of Savoie, Podkolzin, Samanski., Howard, Emberson, et al.
Not to take the thread negative but I’d not Nuge who had a great start to the year but his game turned around his 1000th game and he hasn’t been as good.
Would agree with Nuge being a bit underwhelming of late. He’s never been a play driver, really, but a pretty elite tag-along. He’s lost that elite complementary element lately.
He’s always reminded me of Shawn Horcoff (speaking of which, remember his and Mike Comrie’s rookie season? Late that year, I was at a game with my Dad and I was excited as all hell about Comrie’s potential. My Dad earnestly said “Horcoff is going to have a longer career than Comrie. He plays the game the right way.” Doubt that I would’ve called him an idiot to his face, though I was a teenager at the time so 🤷♂️. But I vividly remember thinking it was a moronic take…anyway, fun to reminisce about these things, but I digress).
So maybe worth considering that when Horcoff’s offense dried up in his 30s, he had to reinvent as a bottom sixer. We may be at that point with Nuge, too.
Repeatedly, it never much mattered who got hurt on PP1 as long as Nuge was around. But if Nuge ever missed time, that PP1 production slowed way down. That’s clearly no longer the case.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Savoie take Nuge’s PP1 spot once Draisaitl is back. His agility and his penchant to find open spots are a valuable look that the PP1 doesn’t otherwise have. And with Davo, Drai, and Bouch better at distribution, I think Savior’s skillset is more complimentary to the rest of that unit’s makeup.
Good post and solid example – Horcoff was lambasted but he fanbase because of his cap hit, not his play (but play in relation to cap ht) which is not much different than what Nuge is at (Horc was $5.5MM X 6) – although Nuge’s $5MM is a much small percentage.
As for the PP, I would think they go right back to the tried and tested PP1 and give it a long runway – Savoie taking Nuge’s spot may be something going forward but probably not this season.
Not negative at all good sir, completely valid.
I’ll admit I have blinders on for Nuge. Hopefully he’s withholding his strongest play for the post season.
Imagine Nuge winning the Conn Smythe haha
He was MVP of the WCF last season (give or take a Stuart Skinner).
I hate Matt Hoffman
What are your thoughts on Jeff?
And Jeff Hoffman hates you for calling him Matt.
lol, oops. That’s how mad I was
Jeff sorry
Are you sure Jeff is sorry?
He should be
Yes he should. He’s a good story and has a great arm but man he can throw the darnedest pitches at the worst times argh
Pelley press conference exposing juat how many folks believe that hockey can be quantified like baseball. Amazing to me how many folks proceed with analytics while ignoring just how statistically meaningless the analytics actually are. For an elite few it’s been an extremely successful grift.
Anything can be quantified to an extent. AI will enable identifying correlations, and perhaps causal relationships, that would be difficult for a human to identify. AI will have to be checked by human judgement. And human judgement should be checked by AI. And one will have to check that the human and the AI are just not trying to please each other.
So far the machine vision private models from Sportlogiq dont seem that different than the public models. But it will definitely be interesting to see what patterns emerge.
Who is this ‘one’ you are referring to that will do the checking?
I disagree with your opening statement “anything can be quantified”. As do many (all?) qualitative researchers. But then there is a further question of should we even try to quantify everything, and again, the answer is no.
We live in a world where people believe quantitative data is unbiased an infallible. Which again is untrue on both counts.
Data based decisions should not exclude qualitative data, especially in the complex world of social science, which includes people playing hockey
Just my thoughts.
I said “anything can be quantified TO AN EXTENT”
I heard what you said. And I said I disagreed!
Quantifying all data can and will get you in trouble
I disagree with your conclusion – the game of hockey has changed drastically in the last 10-15 years as analytics has taken hold.
But it would be nice to see am R2 or a confidence interval from time to time. Dellow used to do work on this level, but I feel like the discourse that is publically available lacks a lot of the nuance you’d expect from actual statisticians
It’s not a conclusion: it’s a fact. The models aren’t predictive.
Dellow was working without the benefit of a data set. Several of the scientifically serious statisticians like Michael Schuckers have been very clear on the models, and haven’t participated in the grift.
From 2010. Interesting that not so much has changed, but as the obsession has grown the statistical honesty has evaporated:
Alan Ryder – September 6th, 2010.
Hockey has not changed that much since a red line was put in. Except, when the league changes rules
It is pretty straight forward. You aren’t running on feet, so skating is critical. Skill in any sport is dominant. Speed is always better. Depending on how the league calls rules, the appropriate size of players changes (this is not something you see as much in other NA sports – it’s more if they are checking for PEDS. Gary is not interested, depending on who I suppose). Being tough remains important because of how rules are called. It’s full high speed contact, so aggressiveness is a helpful trait
Same as it ever was since the 70’s at least
Baseball mostly deals in discreet variables. Hockey mostly deals in continuous ones.
Data doesn’t lie. It’s just harder to get it right with continuous variables compared to discreet ones. But hockey now has a couple of decades of continuous improvement in virtually every aspect of data.
Would love to understand how you came to the conclusion that hockey analytics are “statistically meaningless”. That’s a very strong claim and I don’t see how you could have any data which would justify it (especially when you don’t seem to believe that such data exists in the first place).
While this may not be the case with you, my experience is that folks who eschew analytics (in anything) typically have a difficult time understanding them (goodness knows I often do).
But make no mistake, both Florida teams invest more in data than 90% of NHL teams. Florida maybe more than all but one (Carolina).
The proof is ultimately in the pudding.
5v5 xGF% to GF% has an R2 value of 0.4, across an 82 game team season. PDO for the same sample is 0.62. SF% is also 0.4 to GF%. This is R2 within the same sample – not measured for future goals.At 50 games, xGF% has an R2 of .35 to 82 GP GF%.
But we are supposed to believe that a player’s xGF% over 150 or 300 minutes of play has predictive value to their goal share. Or the that their xGF% on a line of pairing has value.
We might believe that it’s true – that these numbers have meaning. We might take interest. We might write about it. But all we’re doing is guessing. And the numbers we are guessing about are just as subjective as “the eye test” and perhaps even more deceiving in that they install confidence that isn’t really there.
At 50 GP, GF% has an R2 of 0.78 to 82 GP GF%. So maybe, after 50 games we can start to have confidence in GF%.
Where did you get these numbers?
I calculated them, the same way I was taught to in graduate school.
Doing a little digging, I think that those may be old numbers that you are referencing??
There were some older studies that came up with some of these numbers.
MoneyPuck, for one, has adjusted their xGF model
They are not old numbers. Those were calculated across a sample of 15 seasons, while discarding the COVID seasons of less than 82 games. Do the regression yourself without randomizing the games, and tell me what your numbers are.
I remember being at the Ottawa Hockey Analytics conference in 2016 and hearing Vollman say that Corsi was a great model because R2 to future season’s GF% was 34. I talked to Schuckers afterwards – I asked him what he thought of these numbers he was as critical of them as I am being here.
It’s true that the models are not good: and equally true that it doesn’t matter. Nobody in that room said boo about Vollman’s crappy numbers when he presented them, and there were several PhDs in there. At any other conference he would have been laughed at. Many went on from that point to work in the NHL, Sportlogiq, and betting houses. Some became entrepreneurs selling their art online. But the fact remainded and remains today: the underlying stats were not good. Some grifted and some remained honest to the science. At the end of the day it doesn’t matter – NHL teams will use any perceived edge to try to win – even if the science behind the data is not statistically sound.
How do I do that?
My Masters classes didn’t involve Statistics
So I took a look at some pk stats on natural stat trick using the full seasons data and looking specifically at high danger chances given up as a per 60.
Kind of surprised myself as there is some quality work being done. Out of 229 forwards who pk 26 min or more
8 Kappanen @ 15.55 high danger chances against per 60 minutes
23 McDavid @ 17.87 hdca/60
43 Drai @ 18.18
93 Savoie @ 24.28
99 Henrique @ 24.69
144 RNH @ 28.34
153 Dickinson @ 28.8
So as far as chance suppression in the seasons sample the worst oiler forward pk is middle of the pack and the best a big surprise in Kappanan who should get more pk minutes with no surprise that the best players on earth are also good on the pk as a whole (injury risks beware)
A bit surprising that Dickinson is so low. Samanski obviously hasn’t played that much, but would be curious to know where he sits. That’s going to be important moving forward.
As Drai and McDavid get older, the Oilers have to look at ways to limit their minutes. PK is an obvious area to do that. And Nuge isn’t going to be improving at his age.
Got to see former Oiler Ryan McLeod (he looked solid out there, still wheeling and dealing, had some nice set ups) and his buffalo sabres play the sens last night. Very tight playoff style game all round. Ullmark made some dandy stops (3-4) that won the game imo. Buffalo is solid, so are the sens, especially with all the D they have out, they have some nice young D depth and play a nice system.
Chucky Jr.fought the giant Logan Stanley who made chucky look pretty small. Kudos to him, he did ok at the end after looking like he might get mashed. Still not a fan though lol. Stutzle though, yes.
We are very hard on Bouchard but Dahlin looked so smooth out there almost like he wasnt trying, similar to Bouch AND Dahlin made about 3 giveaways at the blueline that we rake bouch over the coals for. They all do it.
Was a fun game to watch, jammed arena, I live in the east and the CDN Tire Centre is a always a good arena to watch a game.
A fellow Oiler fan in Ottawa! Did you live in Edmonton at some point, or how did you become an Oiler fan?
Nooo, full Easterner here, never lived out west, visited but not to see an oil home game yet, its a goal. My Dad and friends were all leafs fan and I was young when the OIL were rising with 99/11 and all. I rebelled and latched on to the orange, blue, white and stayed.
Dahlin is a dirty player as well! Villain type. You love to have that guy on your team.when I recently heard what his wife’s been going through, It’s made me cheer for that man even more.
Dahlin is sneaky dirty and very talented. Great D man. When him and Power were paired up, crazy pairing.
Really? I lived in Ottawa for a couple years over a decade ago and I found CTC an awful building to watch hockey in. I hated it. Everything feels far away, the building sounds cavernous for hockey, and I was actually shocked by the lack of fan passion (though the team wasn’t amazing in the late 00s, early 10s).
Probably my favourite big arena for concerts though. Acoustics are pretty good (and my girlfriend at the time had a family box, which was a sick experience in general, but especially for concerts).
i like it, saw some of the Leaf/Ottawa playoff battles there in the Alfie/Tucker/Roberts zone. Also saw Gretzky’s last game in Canada there, so def soft spot there… though agree the fan base is subdued for sure. Different than Toronto, Montreal for sure and I am sure than what Edmonton looks to be.
I noted last night that Ekholm played apx 4 minutes LESS at 5 on 5 than the #5.
It was noted to me (I did not fact check) that he played 2 shifts in the second period but back to 8 in the third.
Not sure what, if anything, that was all about (if not just load management for an older guy).
Confirmed Ekholm had 2 shifts in the 2nd period.
Interesting… I’ve noticed his ice time dropping as Walman’s play has improved. Three games ago (if memory serves correctly) he was 4th in ice time for defence.
He his aging. Makes Nurse’s and Walman’s play that much more important.
Issac Howard played 28 NHL games this year so I presume he won’t be considered a rookie next season? If he is, he will challenge this.
For Calder purposes anyway, 25 games is the cutoff. Howard is no longer eligible for next season.
safe to say Savoie will challenge this too! which is golden, this guy is the goods. So Savoie increasing his production over a full season and Howard approaching 30/40pts hopefully. After seeing McLeod last night live, as much as I would love to have both, if I had to choose, it would be Savoie because of the creation of offensive he produces and imo he has. more offensive potential esp in the dirty areas.
That Savoie can play with Connor and Leo is a big deal. Not everyone is able to. A good trade for both sides. When was the last time we saw them make a deal and get the better overall player? Especially a young player?
Also the fact that he is good in his own end and a key part of the Oilers PK as a rookie. I like McLeod but this was a good trade for the Oilers… and the Sabres.
Savoie’s quietly broken into the top 10 of rookie scoring.
This is a nice bit of redemption for an org that hasn’t developed prospects well.
Raw rookie scoring is very deceptive since teams with different lineup considerations insert rookies at various times throughout the season.
A much better indicator is P/GP as it doesn’t unfairly assess or penalize players players under widely varying circumstances.
Rookie P/GP (minimum 10GP)
1) Ivan Demidov – .92
2) Bennett Sennecke – .76
3) Matthew Schaefer – .75
4) Igor Chernyshov – .67
5) Jimmy Snuggerud – .63
6)Ryan Leonard – .58
7) Gabe Perreault – .51
8) Ryan Ufko – .50
9) Alex Bump – .50
10) Oliver Kapanen – .49
31) Matt Savoie – .42
Worth noting that a couple of recent signings/call ups are having immediate success although they haven’t hit the 10GP minimum yet.
Anton Frondell has played 6 games with Chicago scoring 1G 5P – .83 P/GP.
Cole Hutson has played 8 games for Washington scoring 2G 6P – .75 P/GP
My goodness – Every Effing Time – so sad.
You want to get in to all the considerations?
How about the fact Senneke, for example, has played 180 minutes on the PP to Savoie’s 50? What about the fact that Cole Hutson has one single point at 5 on 5 – he’s 100% a PP point producer.
Good Grief!
Sennecke has 44 even strength points…Savoie has 22 even strength points and only 32 overall.
Hutson has played all of 8 games as noted. His splits tell you zero.
I am not comparing Sennecke to Savoie but you wanted to talk about context of the status provided and yours didn’t provide ANY.
YOU brought up Hutson and YOU didn’t provide the context that he was one 5 on 5 point in his 8 games – pretty important context.
YOU posted dishonestly in the name of promoting your anti-Oilers narrative – your sold purpose.
Since the olympic break:
a) Schaeffer 1p/g (wow)
b) Snuggerud 0.88p/g playing out the string
c) Savoie 0.78p/g
Arriving at just the right time. Good stat thanks for pointing us there.
Yes, lets not forget about the Ryan Ufkos and Alex Bumps, those two are trending so hot right now
You are including Ufko who has played 12 games come on man.. 5v5 points/60 is what you are looking for
Another poor effort on your part. I appreciate stats though. I dont care what Savoie did earlier in the year except that he was learning, his pattern as OP has stated. multiple times and we all have seen is to learn and adjust. So as last year in the AHL he took some learning time and adjusted.
I don’t care about the comparisons really, I care how he is playing now and how he is trending.
In about week or so we went from:
1) Ducks needing a catastrophic demise; to
2) Ducks needing a big slump; to
3) Oilers needs some help but first place is within reach; to
4) In first place.
At that time, about a week or so ago, it was noted that maybe it just needs an Oilers heater.
The switch has been flipped!
Spencer Knight is the goods the Hawks have a goaltender for the next 6-7 years. Why did Holland pass on Walstedt? Jarry made some real tough saves even on the fluke goal he almost had it. Ingram is big and plays his angles well Jarry is more athletic and when he’s confident I believe he can steal playoff games.
So… you’re good with the goalies? Their record is “average NHL goalie.” Which, in my mind, should be enough to win Cups —if the team leaders play responsibly.
It’s all about the playoffs home ice is a luxury yet starting on road can be a good thing for goalies.
I don’t know why the Oilers didn’t grab DiPietro when Boston put him on waivers last fall. For that fact I am surprised no one else did either.
Having another great year.
Yep they had time and opportunity to find an affordable replacement for Skinner. Why take on Jarry hefty contract for what I assume is 3 playoff runs. In saying that all will be forgiven if Jarry goes on a Roloson heater.
What a movie! The Nicholson diner scene alone is worth the price of admission.
For those who have no idea what I’m talking about… Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/PlwibCZbF8Y?si=NwxHJf6ljVmRDZAl
one of the classic movie scenes ever!…ranks up there with uncle buck giving the principal a quarter and telling her to take a bus downtown and to get a rat to chew that thing off her face!
Last night after the game Staples and Leavins made some convincing points regarding load management in the next 6 games.
I would now like to see anyone and everyone take a game or two off before season end to ensure healthy as possible.
Seeding matters but injuries (as proven in history) are more likely to derail us than Seeding.
True, but the team has been so awful this year, that I’d also like to see the current momentum be uninterrupted.
That was my view until I looked back and noted injuries and likely effects in the playoffs. To be honest I am not scared of anyone in the Pacific so seeding is less important.
You are right and momentum is a thing and not to be discounted lightly. That’s why coaches get the big bucks right.
I agree
If Hyman and Ekholm are banged up there is no reason to play them.
We have enough players ready to get into the line up.
One could make the case that we’d have two more cups if we were healthier
Have to disagree. This team needs the easiest path to the big boys. Home ice in the first two rounds would be huge to those ends. Let the home town advantage and excitement lift you up.
If you make it to the conference finals, the excitement and momentum have you flying high and that’s when home ice matters less.
It took 70 games for this club to start figuring it out. Take *every* advantage to keep the gravy train rolling.
If a player is injured, then let them recover, yes. But play your best players if they’re even mostly healthy.
Twitterverse seems to be wondering if Ekholm is hurt? 2 shifts total in the second period. Did anyone notice anything?
Don’t they have to play the One College kid one game before the end f the year that they just signed?
No – he won’t play, that’s for sure.
He signed for the one-year (max length due to age) and that year is burned. He’ll be an RFA and the Oilers will qualify and re-sign in the normal course and he’ll head to Bako next season.
Consider the switch flipped.
I suppose the scars run deep from the D.O.D., because I never saw this coming. Out of the Olympic break looked all types of bleak. It really is a choice when to go with this group, which is altogether frustrating and amazing.
An underrated and unrecorded stat: I think Evan Bouchard might be the best in the league at keeping the zone at or near the blueline. A few times per game, especially on powerplays, he gets to a puck, or knocks one down, or makes an otherwise unheralded play that keeps momentum. One thinks back to his unworldly zone-keep in Game 4 against LA last year against Byfield, only to score to tie moments later.
Except against Florida, who have been able to take advantage of Bouchard’s aggressiveness at holding the line in two finals series.
Nothing more clever than exploiting an opponent’s strengths against them. Not many teams can, but Florida could.
You realize Bouchard was 50%+ in goal share both SC Finals, right?
The accumulation of discrete events wins in sports, not aggregates. Aggregrgates only tell you the probabilities, and nothing about the size of the tails of the distribution. i.e. Aggregates miss tail risk.
Fat tails are amplified in importance in high stakes series. Florida exploited the fat tail risk that comes with Evan Bouchard…i.e. exploited the variance that comes with Evan Bouchard.
What are the reasons for Bouchard’s gaudy aggregates? How can the reasons for the gaudy aggregates be exploited?
The statistics say that you should win, but you lost. In a short series, variance becomes more important relative to aggregates than during a long season.
Summary:
Aggregates tell you expected value, not tail shape: a player can have strong average results while still carrying a wide distribution of outcomes, including costly breakdowns in high-leverage games. That is why the statement “the stats say you should win, but you lost” is often true in a short series: the better aggregate team is not always the team that survives the realized path of events.
Florida’s path is to force Bouchard into more defensive decisions, more transition stress, and more minutes where his errors matter disproportionately, because short series amplify the cost of a few bad events. The Panthers’ depth and ability to generate big moments from multiple lines also means they can keep pressure on Edmonton’s back end rather than letting Bouchard’s offensive contributions fully offset his risk.
This did not happen. Ekholm got turnstiled on two game winning goals and turned over a puck that resulted in a 3rd game winner.
You’re actually making shit up at this point just so you can continue this weird Bouchard fetish.
I think blaming the series on Bouch is a leap a hop and a jump. He had a significant shoulder injury too.
Stu stopped nothing. Ekholm was a shell of himself.
I am not blaming the loss entirely on Bouchard. The initial comment I was responding to was about Bouchard.
My goodness, Bouchard (along with Walman) was one of the only possible players in that series. If you want to talk about “discrete events”, we can got through the 5 desecrate McDavid events directly leading to goals against in that series?
Of note, McDavid’s aggregates in the 2025 SCF don’t look good either.
Statements like these, as unfortunate as they are and as much as I wish were not true, are why this blog is best place to talk Oilers. Bang on the money.
Why did Florida win two cups and not Edmonton?
In 24, they won a coin toss. I’m convinced if you played that series 100 times, it would be 50-50. If you played that game 7 100 times, it would be 50-50. History will reveal it to be the most even Stanley Cup final ever.
In 25, Florida capitalized on moments. Game 5, Marchand’s opening goal was on Bouchard and Ekholm (14 especially was to blame). Game 6, Reinhardt’s opening goal was on Bouchard and Ekholm (although a nice goal, 14 tossed a grenade causing a turnover and 2 dogged it coming back).
Those two goals essentially won it for them.
The Connor McDavid Oilers live and die by turning it on in the moment, not by playing a complete 60 minute game. Rightly or wrongly, this is how they have proven themselves to be for nearly five complete seasons of success, relatively speaking.
It also makes for heart attack hockey.
I love Ekholm. But despite his good counting numbers, as the SCF went on, it was painfully clear that he was not one of the six best defensemen on the team. He should not have been playing.
Was injured and only came back for late round 3. Should’ve told him to stay in the pressbox. He couldn’t cover for his partner.
Stu also bailed nobody out that entire series. Too many back breakers.
Only exaggerating a little bit when i say Jarry bailed his team out yesterday more than Stu did in his entire tenure save a couple Dallas series.
Chicago is the 2nd worst team in the league. Florida is perhaps the team of the decade.
And Stu lost to them twice while stopping no breakaways what’s your point?
Quality of team is irrelevant to my point.
Think he was injured quite bad
Bouch in my opinion is far and away the best at holding the line. Often with very little effort. It’s incredible how he always seem to be in the right spot. High high high IQ.
I’ve always found the comparison of Nurse and Bouch to be strangely compatible. Both key members to an eventual Oiler championship, both hated by certain circles for plays that look bad. However, their moments of disaster arrive for two completely different reasons, but end in the same result – a terribly embarrassing goal against.
Nurse is an elite athlete who chose to play hockey. I swear, if he were a speedskater, he’d be a national hero with multiple gold medals and statutes in Hamilton. His IQ just ain’t there, through nearly 800 NHL games. So his mistakes are always him trying too hard, overestimating his physical ability when a smarter play would do.
Bouchard on the other hand is such a smart hockey player, that his mistake often look like laziness or inattentiveness, but is more to do with the fact that he is often several steps ahead of the play, positioning himself for the best offensive chance, which when he pulls off, often leads to multiple high danger chances per game.
Fyi…Nurse won the OSHL Scholastic Player of the year in his draft season. So I have zero doubt regarding his IQ as a person. However, high IQ in day-to-day activities doesn’t always translate to a high hockey IQ.
I pass no judgement on Darnell Nurse the man, who by all accounts is a stand up neighbour and Edmontonian. But that’s not why we know who he is.
I am no Nurse hater either. If he made 2 million less per year, fans would think of him on the second tier of all time Oiler favourites. Not quite Ryan Smyth or Nuge levels, but certainly among the Sam Gagners or Georges Laraques or Petr Klimas of the world.
For now, he’s still with Jason Arnott and Mike Comrie, deservedly or not.
Of note, Bouchard is known to be the best athlete on the team – It seems he is good at every thing sporty.
As others have said, hats off to Jarry. He deserves the kudos. He’s a capable goaltender so here’s hoping he continues to find his jam.
Is Spencer Knight for real, as when I’ve seen him play, he looks pretty good. Small sample to be sure. Wondering if the Oilers missed out on him too, although I need to admit, I don’t even know if he was ever in play
He will be a handful backstopping that young and promising team for the next 10 years.
My understanding is he was never in play. A top pick by the Panthers, part of the Seth Jones trade.
Thanks rev. Good to know!
It’s third hand information. But that’s what I understand.
Knight is the real deal. Look how young that D is. He has lost 6 more games than he has won and is still .908/2.57. None of our goalies are over .900, albeit Ingram is on the verge.
Leaders in PK time thr last 10 games
Nurse -19 mins
Murphy
savoie
Bouchard
kapanen
Dickinson
Rico
Ekholm -13 mins
all have 13+ mins
no one else have over 7 mins.
Nurse in this span is 6.2 GA/60 after being 10+ all year.
Nuge and McDavid are basically off the PK at this point and they are just going with their 2 best PK groups. This makes a ton of sense. Nuge was also 10+ GA/60 all year. Also allows guys like KAPANEN, Henrique, Dickinson to contribute in a huge way. Bringing in Dickinson and Murphy was huge – maybe also having Stuart focus on PK again while Coffey took over the D? Maybe Coffey had ideas about the PK as well.
In the TD preview of Oil change Jeff Jackson said something along the lines of “we can fix the PK pretty quick” and damn it the man was right.
Pre March 1 – 8.5 GA/60 27th in the league
Post March 1 – 6.6 12th in the league
This is the kind of stat that makes you fall in love w Savoie. Most pk min for a forward, 1st line time and pp time w McDavid. He is a mini Nuge in the making.
I didn’t add this cause it was already too long but Savoie has been on for 1GF and 0 GA on the PK during this span
Well I won’t just declare that trade a franchise savior it is close. I personally was losing hope with no prospects to replace nuge and Hyman in sight. The development of savoie and podkolzin has given us a glimpse into a longer contention window however.
As much as I would value McLeod as a 3c Savoie is more what we need (cost controlled winger who plays w talent)
Why is why we can afford to play Nuge at 3C (once Drai is back).
Now this is a question. Is it better to run Dickinson as a 4th line c w Nuge at 3c or have the 2 centers on the 3rd and let samanski center the energy wingers on the 4th?
And if its a shutdown line for 3rd I would want nuge on the top line and run
Dickinson – Samanski – Savoie
I think he’s more of a play driver now than Nuge ever was, though.
Small sample since the Olympic break but he seems to zoom everybody he plays with. Nuge has never done that outside of the PK.
Getting Henrique back changed things too. The PK now ranked #4 in 10 games after his return (Chicago boys plus Henrique seems to be making the difference).
Yeah him as a 4th liner and PK specialist is a very good role for him. He will stay fresh too.
Great to see both goalies playing solid hockey, looking calm and confident.
Ramble on
And now’s the time, the time is now
To sing my song
I’m going ‘round the world, I gotta find my girl
On my way, I’ve been this way ten years to the day
Ramble on, gotta find the queen of all my dreams
Maybe on their way to trying to find Lord Stanley’s better half, Madam Stanley
Conversely, in honor of Toronto being officially eliminated:
The Leaves are falling all around,
time they were on their way
thanks to Brad they’re much obliged
to hit the first fairway
It’s time for them to go
And their suckitude lights their way
For they smell the rain, and with it pain
And Auston’s going away…
Well done. Fun stuff. Bye bye Leafs. Enjoy the early golfing and maybe the loss of a captain
What really stands out for me is the minutes. The minutes for the 3rd and 4th lines have seen an increase in I’d guess 2 minutes each since the start of the season while knocking back the top 6. You actually notice this while watching the game, like; 3rd line starts game, or 4th line on in regular rotation in the 3rd period etc. The question is, who made this decision? ‘Or’ did the GM finally give the coach the players he can trust to assign them those minutes?
GM finally gave coach a 3C is the main thing. It’s tough to give the third line minutes when your 3C options are Henrique, Noah Philp, David Tomasek, Roslovic etc. those are important minutes.
I will also add the effect of having Dickinson’s line take all the dzone starts and sone tough comp gives the 4th line easier minutes, and gives the top 6 easier minutes. It was really kind of a genius move to grab him and Murphy for the impact on the PK and on the bottom 6 and getting guys slotted in the right place.
I think an insightful take. It’s resonating in my mind
Yeah the day of someone here commented that in a vacuum both moves were meh ( and this allowing a handicap for the Mangiapane dump), but that in the context of the Oilers roster these additions were more than the sum of their stats – impacts now rippling through the whole of the lineup.
Even if they aren’t perfect, those two changed the team dynamics in a positive fashion it seems
Great noticing. And tends to balance the scales. Broken record (me): roll 4
Well Drai being out means the minutes have to go somewhere and Connor should play less not more. I am just happy we are getting positive results.
I think starting the third or fourth line is a simple and likely very effective way to team build. Giving the bottom 6 a feeling of importance. Love that move by whoever made it.
Yes along with giving them ownership of the PK. No reason to have Nuge and McDavid PKing if you have others that can do it
IMO the big test will be when Draisaitl returns.
Will they sustain this type of play, or revert to “let 97 and 29 carry the mail”?
If the former with the Glimmers, the opposition will be left torn and frayed.
True, very true. Gotta roll 4 lines if you want to win the Cup. Could that be what 97 meant after losing the SCF last year when he said words to the effect that they’re doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different?
Panthers didn’t roll four lines last year or the year before.
In each playoff season, their 10th to 12th forwards each averaged less than 9 minutes per game.
Like the Oilers will need, they were “involved” but not rolled.
At least Maurice settled on his lines and kept them. The only real change he did was swapping Rodrigues and Verhaege.
He didn’t overcoach
Truth. Maybe Drai should be re-introduced like a rookie, re-learn defensive play and work his way up the lineup!
Even Jarry is getting his kicks in, senior citizen Henrique piling on, hell at this pace Frederic is going to pot a hatty.
I thought last night was a “tempting the hockey gods” kind of planned loss. Glad I was wrong, but I think it’s worthwhile spelling out my concern all the same.
I thought Knoblauch putting Jarry in with the division title within grasp and needlessly changing up the bottom 6 with Frederic, while on a 4 game heater, were foolish.
Neither decision turned out to cost them. But a coach’s job is to expertly play the odds. I could accept Frederic inserted if he looked like a demon in practice.
But making 2 changes with a higher probability of negative impact (Jarry’s track record of late and Frederic not being in game shape) when you have the division title on the line at home will never be *the* play. Not to me, certainly not simultaneously.
And this late in the season, with such a high stakes game, you ride your best goalie. Never fugg with your #1’s confidence. Not playing your #1 in a game of this magnitude? It constitutes screwing with his confidence.
No way in this world that Ingram didn’t want the starting pipes in that one.
Knoblauch is smart. But he’s inexperienced and doesn’t have any other major head coaching experience in the room to offer wisdom. Feels like “smart, inexperienced coach out-thinking himself”.
Unfortunately (fortunately for us. I suppose, but not for his development as a coach) the game didn’t teach him a lesson, but I guarantee that the most respected and most data driven coaches in the NHL aren’t making both of those roster moves in a home game where they can capture a division tie.
Just to gently push back a little bit, but with so little time left it is necessary to make sure the players the coach wants to rely on throughout the playoffs are at their best & contributing prior to the show. Jarry will have to play in the post season, and Frederic was always going to be a big part of the run too.
The ability of the team to win while mixing & matching is so a huge necessity for success.
Continued strong play like the the last 5 games have shown means the path to the WCF is open for the Oilers. But everyone’s gotta rope & ride. And KK isess concerned with the final standings than seeing the team be able to do that, is my guess (from his media last night).
Jmo
I don’t know Chicago is terrible and we’ve been playing well. Knoblauch will also know how Jarry is feeling and progressing in practice. Ingram doesnt have to play every game, and Knoblauch probably thought it was a good opportunity to get him some confidence.
Completely disagree. Both goalies are needed and the team needs both goalies “on” their game. Can’t burn out Ingram and can’t have Jarry ice cold.
And isn’t the game of magnitude coming up against Vegas?
I disagree on so many levels with so much of this take.
But thats why its great. We can disagree and debate it here respectfully!
Riding Ingram makes sense on face value. But not when you consider keeping jarry ready if needed and making sure Ingram is given the odd rest.
This was the perfect game to give jarry I believe. Weak opponent. Team is confident. Yes it could backfire and damage the team psychy… but its also the best time to get jarry confidence. And also push the team to perform through some controversy if jarry struggles… value there too.
On Frederick… I am more indifferent. There is very little change from sitting lazar for him… I think it is makes sense to get him going.
I would suggest that KK coached this situation perfectly honestly. He also didnt take the temptation of removing samanski which he could have.
I’m with you. This was not a game of consequence, except to prepare for the “real season, real prize.” I doubt winning the Pillow Fight Division is a high priority for this group. I imagine the coach, who’s been very close twice, has his mind set on that distant prize. I imagine the team shares that vision.
Well, here’s a take I mostly disagree with, but at least has some rational thought behind the position. This is what makes for interesting debate.
From my perspective, first place is no where near as important as getting a confident Jarry back in net, and Frederic up and running. If first place is the most important thing, Ingram gets all the games until they are mathematically eliminated from that possibility, and nobody gets swapped out after a victory. Both those decisions would be looking at the short versus the long-term.
This team should be thinking that they have a couple of months of hockey yet to place. The team is in the playoffs. Now is the time to make sure the long-term mental and physical health of the team is in place for the long haul.
Ingram played 5 straight games, got one game off, and then played then next 3 (I believe).
Jarry has to play, well, to state it differently, Ingram can not play every game and needs to get nights off that are not back to back.
100% last night was a non-brainer to player Jarry, at least in my opinion (and he should have played against Florida after starting 3 prior).
I want to win the division and it would be nice but it’s really not that big a deal. To be honest, finishing 2nd will likely have an inforeriod opponent in round 1. Winning the division may provide home ice in round 2, that’s really all.
What’s more important is (1) not running Ingram in to the ground and (2) getting Frederic up and running for the playoffs. Frederic playing well is more important than Lazar getting in the lineup.
I’m glad Knob showed the maturity as a coach to make the right, and tough, decisions for the betterment of the team and in propagation of their ultimate goal.
Prospecticent!
Nicholl and the Knights are trying to pull off a peews* against the Soo, still trailing the series 3-1. Nicholl has averaged two points a game since signing his ELC — albeit in the smallest of samples — and has a troika of apples in four GP.
Lewandowski and the Blades are in the ‘Chuk for Game 5 of their opening round series, currently knotted at 2. The lone Euro NAmateur has 2-3-5 in four GP to lead S’toon.
London (Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Saskatoon (Lewandowski) @ 6 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Swan Hills time.
*Not a word in Welsh, but rather a reverse sweep.
It nice to win a playoff style 2-1 game where we got goalied by Spencer Knight.
Jarry had a great game saving the team on the multiple odd man or breakaway opportunities that CHI generated. This was the first time in the current 5 game winning streak that we leaked so much on the rush but the in-zone defending held the fort admirably.
You can see the team literally gaining confidence in their ability to stay in a low scoring game without panic. Drai’s injury and a few devastating losses afterwards finally convinced the team that they couldn’t outscore other teams with just McDavid driving the bus. It’s nice to see the playoff intensity in the forwards efforts at forechecking and backchecking now. Coffey’s tweaks have helped but the players have bought in and it’s awesome to see how well it works when everyone’s pulling the same way.
Agreed. It’s a 3 wheel wagon rambling on. Remember 97’s past three years. Add 29’s. I know both are fine tuned athletes who eat well, look after their bodies etc. but the story in my head is that both are physically and mentally tired, tired tired,
This type of game suits them at this point – good practice for the tight games coming up
To use an expression used by Tarkus above, both 97 and 29 have been carrying the mail for so long, it’s frankly amazing to see 97 still playing at an incredible level (yes defensive game not 5 star). For older folk, ithe image that pops into my mind is when we delivered newspapers (yes, daily delivery lol) and had to put the strap on the head or carry two bags. It gets exhausting
But the wagon is rambling, and headed to the dance
Did Moneypuck tell the Kings their schedule is laughably easy and they are supposed to win?
Is that in the NHL guide and record book?
No?
Holland don’t know nuthin’ ’bout that, then.
The moneypuck kings have gone to extra time 30 out of 75 games. 30! 19 of those have been losses. Bettman’s nhl folks.
11 bonus points is a lot.
Thats nuthin’. Anaheim have 17! Minnesota 15. A bunch with between 11 and 14, and the Oil have 9.
1-1-1 on the homestand with 4 games to go.
vs.TOR
vs. NSH
vs. VCR
vs. EDM
@SEA
@ VCR
@CAL
5 wins doable
7 wins doable, in fact.
Bupkis, also doable
It seems that, yes, yes they can flip the switch.
They simply decided to start playing hard defensively: blocking shots, getting in lanes, sticks on shots/passes, defensive zone pick battles, not blowing zone on 50/50 pucks, etc.
They still have puck management issues and defensive transition recognition issues here and there but they’ve flipped that switch.
They’ve won these 5 in a row and Leon has been out and McDavid FAR from the top of his game (I thought he had a very poor game, for him, last night).
Yes, it appears they have flipped the switch. It’s like a totally different team out there than we’ve been watching most of this season. Let’s hope they are peaking at the best possible time and can keep it up
97 looked disinterested without the puck until there was a chance someone may get him the puck. It’s a 1 goal lead yet he’s looping around randomly, turning away from the play, not defending from the inside out. Have some game state awareness.
He’s been left to do what he pleases without the puck for so long that I don’t see him ever changing. He could be a much more complete player, but the organization has failed to prioritized it
They still do love leave the centre ice in both ends for distressingly long periods
Last night wasn’t their best game but they won. They’re going to want to bring it next game against VGK.
Generally I agree. But in recent games I thought I was seeing a Capt who could be bothered to defend. Last night, not so much. As you said, looping around, turning away. But also bobbled passes.
Who knows, maybe he got out of bed on the wrong side? I’m hoping he gets out on the right side Saturday and we see the 200-ft, attention to detail Capt of recent games. I believe the team takes its cue from their leader.