The Edmonton Oilers lost the opener to the Winnipeg Jets last night, in a way that was reminiscent of last season’s ghastly opener versus the Vancouver Canucks. The opposition worked hard and smart, and the Oilers did not push back in any productive way. Frustrations were high among Oilers fans, as often happens when the hope of a new season is demolished like a high-speed collision on the QE2. It was a most unsatisfactory evening in Edmonton.
A REQUEST
Last night, we had another episode involving a poster who felt comfortable with getting personal with me. I have asked many times that we all treat each other with respect, and honestly for the most part that has been the case over the last 20 years. I’m not going to go on a tirade, but do want to reiterate that I’m not your punching bag, that you don’t have a right to come on this blog and be a bully or make your point in an insulting way. If you wish to do so, the internet has many other options available. Just not here. Please be respectful and please do not get personal. It’s vital that we keep this forum respectful. I’m counting on you.
THE FIVE-ON-FIVE NUMBERS
Score effects in play here so we need to be wary of making statements of facts with the math moving under our feet. Ekholm-Bouchard did well, Nurse-Emberson looked less than comfortable, and Kulak-Dermott ended the game with a 70 percent shot share. Score effects for sure, and my goodness this group of players (all positions) had a hard time making plays that were net positive. One is tempted to say the six goals were uncontested by all three levels (G, D and F), but that’s perhaps unfair.
The first goal featured a giveaway by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and an inviting rebound by Stuart Skinner. The game to that point, in my opinion, was a thrilling one that had promise. The Evan Bouchard giveaway had been answered by a strong stop by Skinner. It was the last good moment of the game for the goaltender.
Skinner was poor by any measure. After the game, he said “the game was too quick for me, and I wasn’t up to speed” and in my opinion that applies across the entire roster. Connor McDavid is the best player in the game, but he didn’t impact in a material way. It says a lot about training camp and state of readiness, but maybe more about how difficult it is to recharge after a long Stanley run that resulted in searing disappointment.
That’s not making excuses, but rather an acknowledgement of reality. I didn’t like the preseason at all. None of the goalies played well, only Raphael Lavoie scored more than one goal, some of the defensive combinations didn’t spend much time together at all. I think coach Knoblauch will handle next fall’s training camp differently, but that’s for the future.
I can’t lay all of the blame on the goalie, because the entire team looked like they were playing in fog. I was going to use the title “Sleepwalker” today, but decided on ‘October Sky’ instead.
I can’t lay the blame entirely on the defense, because the forwards were not even ‘also in photo’ on some of the plays that resulted in goals.
I didn’t like the tape-to-tape passes, I didn’t like the foot speed, I didn’t like the response after that ’10 minutes of death’ that involved four goals against Edmonton. If you’re getting crushed on the score clock and fans are unhappy, make like Warren Zevon and Hit Somebody.
It was a disappointing effort for all involved. I am by nature a positive person, so can often find a sliver of hope for the future. The Cult of Hockey had the Grade A high danger shots at 7-3 Winnipeg, and I think that’s a fair assessment. You shouldn’t expect a 6-0 deficit with that kind of percentage (30 percent of the fantastic chances) but that was the result and the Oilers have to own it.
WHAT TO DO?
I think the Oilers need to give reps to Nurse-Emberson and get them comfortable with each other. The Oilers traded for Emberson with an eye to using him there, I wouldn’t change after just one game. I assume Troy Stecher is still recovering from injury, but he’s an option if available.
Tthis team is far better than what we saw last night. Even with the speed issues and the foggy mountain dew style of play, this Oilers team should be competitive every night. The schedule favors them, and getting wins in October paves the way for a strong season contending for the top of the Pacific division. That’s where they should be, but based on last night that’s a distant bell.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 0-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 0-1-0
I suggested last night’s game would be a loss, but clearly didn’t think this team would sink to such depths. It was, and let’s not mince words, a pitiful effort. I don’t think the coach will need to challenge these players, professional athletes usually rebound after being humbled. Then again, we said that about the Oilers after Game 1 one year ago. I’d come back with Skinner and the same defense, might tweak the lines depending on who came out of the game healthy. I’m not sure we can recommend anyone moving up the depth chart based on last night, but the down escalator is full and then some.
A busy show and your chance to rip this joint comes at noon today, Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will help us break down last night’s debacle and we’ll look ahead to the weekend and (hopefully) better days. Decan Krueger will have Declanations on NCAA football and we’ll read your ‘mean tweets’ as they come in (read by Kate Gullekson, who has the kindest, gentlest voice). It’ll be hilarious! I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Celebrini is must watch hockey. Ah the excitement of shiny new first overalls. He’s like a young
Stu BarnesTaylor Hall out there.Right Coast teams (LTism) play playoff hockey all of the time, every game
I was just at a business conference in Niagara and sales reps said the further east you go the more traditional it gets
So, what is the deal? Too much weed? Why can the Wings play a high tempo game and lose and still be losing and we can’t be bothered to even try? Boo
It’s all on the leaders. There is no more learning. They are all at least a decade in. If they haven’t got the plot by now, it is what it is. You can yell cry and philosophize all that you want, it’s on the ice that matters
Time to do what you are talking about. Took the last great Oilers team a few seasons to hit potential, that’s how it goes
Sabres are my favourite American team (I guess I’m just drawn to prolonged periods of ineptitude). I have the Sabres kings game on. Just watched a McLeod Foegele face off and chuckled.
McLeod won the draw pretty cleanly.
Better come to play against the Flyers as well as Calgary. Tortz teams always play hard and are in great shape to start. That game bothers me.
I could see the Oil easily 1-3 to start if they continue to play like they did last night.
If the Oilers are obsessed with accruing cap space that would signal pretty clearly that they are looking to add a substantial defenseman at the deadline.
I think that has always been the presumed plan.
Bowman has been express that he wants to accrue to be able to add in-season and the fanbase presumes that is for a d-man.
It is one game folks.
I love to catastrophize as much as the next person but I think it is probably too early.
Skinner is what he is. Which is a goalie that is prone to some brutal games/stretches.
I would rather get waxed 6-0 then lose 3-2 in the last minute. A loss is a loss but this one has to sting especially for the coaching staff. I expect a litter more jump and physicality in the next game.
All teams are going to have a few stinkers over the course of the season, it’s unfortunate when it’s game one. As we saw last year, not predictive of anything.
I think that second pair will come around.
There will be more games like last night this year. Every team has them.
I don’t accept the “short” offseason as any sort of explanation for a crappy game. IMO very few of the guys came to play
D.Wakely(6th rd/24) was traded to Barrie from North Bay in the OHL.
Be good to see the kid playing some games again.
That makes five teams who each have two NAmateurs–BU, Vermont, Barrie, London and Flint.
2 points to make.
1) At 6:44 Nurse and Emberson on D. Have full control. Nurse gets turned by Iafallo and then it goes to the crapper. Nurse drifts all the way into Emberson and gives him no time to deal with a small pass. Emberson tries to quickly set Nurse free up the left boards but Iafallo has a really good stilck. Nurse didnt read the play that it was 2 Oilers, 1 Jet and that he needed to just jump in because they had the advantage. Instead he was late the Jets were able to get everyone in the play and then a dangerous chance.
Nurse either should have taken the space on the left side of the ice, communicated with Emberson to switch but instead played too close to Emberson and then didnt read that the Jets were on a line change and be aggressive.
2) I thought the Oilers had the advantage in the game until the Jets scored the first goal. Even after the 1st goal they seemed ok. But that 4th line doesn’t bring enough and the the bottom 2 d pairs need time together.
Rough rough start to this season. Hope it doesnt take a new coach to right the ship.
Nurse’s erratic play is hard on his partners. Maybe he will calm down with a more rounded partner, we hope
I posted this in the old thread.
https://x.com/hockeystatcards/status/1844236530996461660
It matched the eye test for me that the Nurse Emberson pairing had a rough night.
Anyway, the story last night was the combination of wobble in net and not having 4 top four defensemen.
How many decent goalies that would have been an upgrade on Pickard were placed on waivers recently?
If Nurse is in playoff mode from last season it’s going to be a rough ride.
I don’t think Emberson has been bad. If you look at the simulator Wheatnoil mentioned, the forwards and Stu are the main culprits. And Nurse being playoff Nurse still. I think they moved Emberson down to see if Dermott faired better with Nurse having a lot more experience
Woodguy had a theory about teams needing four actual NHL defensemen.
He wrote this so long ago, I wonder if he even remembers it, ????
I think he used to pick teams that would miss the playoffs by those who lacked 4 actual NHL defensemen. It was a pretty accurate though not infallible method.
I can’t recall exactly, but he was very methodical in how he defined an actual top four defenseman.
Like we saw in the Young Stars tournament, forwards will look really bad playing in front of a weak d corps.
Playoff Nurse is not a top four NHL d.
Not even close.
Emerson might be able to sub in as an almost top four d if he has a good partner. Playoff Nurse isn’t that.
Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse, Kulak
4 actual NHL defensemen
Kulak averaged 15:23 minutes per game all states last season.
He peaked at just under 18 minutes while playing for a poor Montreal team, four years ago.
I can’t understand how you see Kulak as an actual top 4 NHL defenseman?
I agree absolutely that Playoff Nurse is nowhere near a top-4 blueliner on a good team. It’s scary that it took pairing him with Broberg during the playoffs to get his line to stop bleeding goals, and even then, the underlying numbers didn’t seem to suggest that the good results were sustainable.
Right now we have 2x top 4 D, and hopefully Emberson can grow into a 3rd top 4 D in time for playoffs. But that’s a big “if”.
But Nurse? There were a lot of posters in the spring claiming that Nurse was clearly injured and that’s why he wasn’t performing well in the playoffs. And I agreed that during the playoffs, he looked *seriously* injured.
So if Nurse is still playing poorly because of injury… put him on LTIR and let him recuperate and do physiotherapy and whatever he needs until he’s back to being 100%. If he “toughs it out” and keeps playing – leaving him still injured when playoffs come around – he’s going to continue to cost the team goals against in the post season.
But if Nurse is actually healthy right now and preseason and yesterday’s performance are indicative of Nurse’s “new normal”… the team needs to forget about the sunk cost of his cap and just shelter him.
The alternative is for the GM to move heaven and earth to move Nurse. The problem with a #5D getting paid as a #1D is that it inflates all future contracts. Next off-season, Bouchard’s agent is going to vaguely gesture towards Nurse before demanding Bouchard gets a *much* larger cap hit. We lost Broberg a month ago in part because Nurse’s inflated contract meant we couldn’t afford to sign a seemingly superior player who was demanding 1/3 of what Nurse’s contract eats.
If they can’t move Nurse, and Nurse doesn’t get better, buy him out next summer. It becomes a poison pill but I believe for the first 2 years of the buyout, the Oilers actually get most of the cap space back (and by year 3, hopefully the cap has continued to increase enough to offset the damage). With Nurse gone, hopefully it allows the Oilers to sign Bouchard to a more reasonable cap hit and forces the Oilers to bring in an actual top-4 LHD.
The play that Klam referenced above had absolutely nothing to do with anything physical nor something that could be related to injury. It had everything to do with the mental aspect of the game. Inability to maintain spacing, recognize danger and make the smart play was the problem. Nurse had plenty of time to do so but failed completely. That was Pee Wee hockey bad.
That’s the concern. Even given a Nurse injury during the playoffs, many of his errors were more related to defensive position or lack of situational awareness or poor decision making.
A guy like Tanev will play though nearly anything and injuries degraded his play against us, but you don’t see an injured Tanev making bad decisions all over the ice.
This is a great post and the crux of the issue.
This might be the only option at this point.
Perhaps there is another option, you know, give Nurse more than 1 game in this year’s regular season. I mean McDavid was terrible last night.
It’s more than one game, it’s been going on since Nurse was moved to the 2nd pair. You know….
Nurse/Broberg were 4-2 goals but that reflects luck more than anything. That pairing got caved to apx 30% metrics, including expected goals, accross the board. Aside from actual goals (which is important but is not necessarily reflective of play in this sample) Nurse did better without Broberg.
Yes did you bring it up a while back? At that time I had a quick look at top teams, and it seems since WG posited that, almost no team has 4 solid top 4 D, 3 seems the usual amount. The Canes couldn’t hold their nice group together when contracts came up
I think it’s cap related as D are getting bigger contracts beyond the elite fellas. If you spend that much on D you will have a thin F group, especially if the goalie is getting paid. Always the cap trade offs
You need 2 pairs who can play. You can only hide one pair.
At least they are trying something different. Neither Ceci or Des (particularly) could play with Nurse
I guess we will find out this year whether the problem was Ceci/Desh/and others or if the problem is Nurse.
And leaks not suggest that the Oilers weren’t trying something different. Last year they tried Ceci, Desh, Stecher, Broberg and Kulak.
Last night was surprising to me to say the least. After last years start I was definitely expecting more. For whatever reason they came out poor for the most part. From Skinner to McDavid and most players in between. It was one game for sure which isn’t the end of the world but if the poor performance continues this weekend then I will be more than concerned.
Only half kidding but just because they don’t learn from history doesn’t mean you shouldn’t. This team starts badly. In season; in games – hell even in series. It’s who they are.
I don’t think score effects had any effect other than the combos’ advanced stats in the third period…in the first two periods the oilers led at all times in shots, scoring chances and in high danger chances. This loss is more on Skinner than any other player on the team, along with exceptional play by Hellebuyck. This score should have been more like 3-2 in a toss up. NST had scoring chances at 35-20 and High Danger at 10-5 for Oilers, all situations. Sport Loqiq maybe closer with Slot Shots 12-10 for Oilers but High Dangers 15-12 for Jets. Cult of Hockey had Grade A chances 12-9 Oilers but 7-3 in High Alarm. With .910 goaltending or lets say .650 on grade A chances its an Oilers win…is it much more complicated than that? Again no score effects in play when the shots are 9-8 Oilers and score is 2-0 then Oilers have 2 great chances on 4 shots to start the second but 1 minute later the shots are 13-10 oilers but the score is already 4-0
Per Gregor- Lavoie is back on waivers.
Given someone other than Vegas claimed him yesterday, the Oilers likely do this with full knowledge they are going to lose him.
Seems they value accruing on that $750K more than Lavoie.
I presume the are fully aware that, as soon as a forward gets banged up or sick or has a personal issue and has to miss a game, they need someone on the roster to have 12 forwards and that accrual is gone.
It seems they have zero interest in Lavoie being that player or they are taking a leap of faith that they will be able to go with the 12 current forwards for a long period of time
Weird to me.
After last nights showing, the Oilers could do worse than create a bit of competition for forward spots by keeping Lavoie up.
Weird to me too. But good for Lavoie. He needs a chance at a fresh start.
Wow. I know we don’t have all the inside information on day to day happenings within the org. On the surface though, this seems like a really bad look as far as asset management and people management.
I worked in middle management of a mid size oil and gas company for years. How management treats people matters a lot. It affects the culture, and ultimately the performance of the staff. Negative sentiment spreads quickly amongst the employees and is a big contributor to poor results. I believe this hold true no matter what company we are discussing.
Now I can’t imagine Lavoie feeling like the Oilers value him much or at all at this point. I also have to question what the other players in Edmonton and Bakersfield think of all this. Some may feel they would be better served in another organization.
Unless there is something else going on
Could be that the ‘other’ team and the Oilers have reached an agreement on a deal
The ‘other’ team lets Lavoie slide thru waivers and reaches the AHL, and then a Kostin/Samorukov deal is consumated
Let’s see how this plays out
Yes, this could be a possibility for sure
I’m guessing COL. Not sure who’d be the inbound player tho
Not weird at all. As we’ve seen, cap space at the deadline is one of the most valuable commodities.
Lavoie doesn’t move the needle enough to deviate from the plan to accrue as much cap space as possible.
Yes, cap space is a valuable commodity but, at the same time, how long are the Oilers going to go before they need to add someone to the roster to fill that $775? Do they get through the games this weekend before there is an injury, illness or personal issue to a forward?
It seems to me we har similar discussions about Benson re getting a chance, waivers, etc and in the end he just wasn’t an NHLer
Benson was never at risk for a claim.
This decision is made with full knowledge that the player is almost assuredly claimed – and they have room to keep him.
Maybe not weird. Maybe he just isn’t good enough. He’s had his chances and obviously hasn’t impressed.
There was a team that finished higher than him in the standings that put in a claim when Vegas waived him (and likely put in a claim when the Oilers waived him the first time – although that is a presumption).
I presume that team will claim again unless something has changed for them in the last 48 hours.
Vegas might as well knowing that if they claim him, and no-one else does (which is unlikely – see above), they can assign him to Henderson.
It’s all about the crest to me but there comes a point where a player needs to be set free. Lavoie was never in there plans when Holland was here and once new management took over they chose Podkolzin over Lavoie. I do believe Bowman is way more proactive when it comes to goaltending and Pickard is not the answer. I do believe Bowman already has a goalie in mind if Skinner doesn’t turn it around quickly.
Pickard saved our playoffs. I think he deserves plenty of rope.
LT reminds us that during pre-season play, Lavoie actually put the puck in the net. There were not very many goals scored during the Oilers’ camp, so I thought it odd they would have waived one of the few goal scorers… now a second time. Fingers crossed there is something “smart” in the works.
I’m saddened but not surprised at the abusive comments last night. The worst thing to happen to truth, decency, courtesy, respect and honesty in our society is the prevalence of anonymous commenting on news articles, blogs, etc.
Social media has enabled people to say things to each other online that they would never have the guts to say face-to-face.
And… feeling shame is a thing of the past.
Bingo!
Truth. It didn’t appear to be slow boots. It just seemed like a lot of guys were having a difficult time processing what was in front of them at game speed.
We lost 3D from last season and 1 of the new guys playing in the opener has limited NHL experience. This may take a while to come together. Maybe a long while.
I’m sure this has been mentioned on this blog and in the comments. I haven’t been able to read as frequently recently. But thought I’d drop in and point out something cool at nhl.com that showed up yesterday. Every goal from this year and last has a little schematic that plays the 10 seconds prior to the goal, showing where every player was on the ice, how they moved, and the where the puck was.
It’s pretty awesome and highlights the defensive breakdowns better than the game camera angle.
Like on the second goal, you can see in the gif schematic how Emberson actually played it pretty well, but McDavid misreading the breakout as he got on the ice and Arvidsson going for a change instead of tracking Lowry forced Emberson into the middle, away from Appleton, who eventually scored.
Anyways, probably someone mentioned it yesterday, but if you haven’t seen it, it’s rare that nhl.com does something good but it’s legitimately good and cool.
That is really cool. Seems like goal culprits – S Skinner, Emberson CMD, Pod, J Skinner Drai, Nuge S Skinner, PPG
Oil played like my pantry last night…..NO JAM
Look in the fridge.
Aw! – Frozen Jam.
The jets repeatedly used the rainbow road seam pass and it got through, a lot. Many of the goals were scored like this. They also would touch pass across the seam coming over the line. The oilers just couldn’t seem to pick it up. Tough on Stu to have the puck move 50ft across the ice and then a hard, accurate shot flies in from an unmarked player.
The oilers tried the same thing but routinely it got eaten up by the jets. I don’t think it’s a scout or anything, it’s just poor execution by the Oilers. Hopefully it’s a wake up call to get going.
He has one great rush early and then passed off trying to set up Hyman. In the 64 goal season I think he looks to shoot that, and likely scores.
That was a very disappointing moment for me as I was hopeful he’d have the “rip it mentality” he did in 2023/24.
I would agree with the shot first mentality, especially when behind, its makes McDavid a double threat to make a play or fire a shot.
Also I would like to see if Skinner and Mcdavid can have some magic, seems like they would be a nice compliment to one another with Hyman batting/tipping in the 5 footers
Since July 1, I have had the opinion that Skinner is a better fit on McDavid’s wing than Drai’s wing. Of course, there is no way to actually know that but it seems stylistically that McDavid drags defenders towards him (so does Drai but not like Connor) and Skinner has the ability to find soft ice and Connor will find him to use that high end shot.
The Oilers need to get used to the fact that they now have a bullseye on them every game now. The Jets had 110 points last year. They’ll wake up.
Good to see the 3rd line have a positive possession night – coach said they were the team’s best line. Connor Brown looks like he could score 15 from the middle six or third line – he was all over the puck near net.
I made a comment early last night about that line getting hemmed in and they did were caved in shot metrics during exhibition which was the same in playoffs (despite eye test).
That was a heartening performance by the line.
I agree. This has to be a hard working line following up the skill lines. I’m still not sold but good performance as you acknowledge.
Like to see Stecher back in the lineup next game. Maybe beside Nurse.
If you crater Emberson now, you might crater him for the season. Have to go full support at this point, no choice.
I’d move Emberson with Kulak and make them the second pairing until Nurse starts playing better.
Who’s cratering Emberson? They can still play Emberson with Nurse & Stecher with Kulak. I was surprised to see Dermott beside Kulak on opening night because I felt Stecher earned the spot on the third pair with Kulak. Stecher is a natural RHD and would fit better than Dermott beside Nurse if Emberson continues to struggle with Nurse.
You believe that Stecher was a healthy scratch b/c the Coach feels Dermott earned the start over Stecher?
Maybe Stecher by Emberson.
The same issues as the beginning of last season.
The defensive system excels when the offense are playing a possession oriented style. When they are controlling the puck and the turnovers are down low, with proper pinching and coverage, the defensive system becomes simpler and players like Nurse and Stu will excel.
Right now they’re playing pond hockey on offense and it’s exposing our defense.
Too much transition defense, with coverage breakdowns and the goals against are easy peasy.
I wonder if Stu is distracted or miffed by poor d positioning, because it feels overly affected by bad play in front of him. Like he loses his focus or something and rarely makes the bailout save.
To me a team’s poor play doesn’t mean the goalie can’t play well, it means the goalie will give up more goals. They can still make the saves they should, and hopefully some they shouldn’t
Yeah that’s what I was pointing out, Stu seems to crumble when the team isn’t playing properly in front of him. Seems like a completely different tender when the team is playing posession hockey. I was positing it might be a focus issue and bad play distracts him. It’s strange nonetheless.
Dubnyk became an Allstar in Minny but suffered the same issues as Stu behind an irresponsible team.
Stu was playing the exact way he was playing game 3 against the Canucks.
Positioning was lost, puck tracking was disabled. He wasn’t owning his crease, wasn’t squaring up to shooters.
Hellinabuick was dominate with his mindset, gave his team infront of him all types of confidence. Jets did not play mistake free hockey, but when you have a mostly goalie you can sell it as is.
Landon Ferraro, spawn of Ray and getting more into commentary, thinks Stu is good enough, but doesn’t see him as a top keeper. That’s my take, there are things in his game that top guys don’t have. Kind of like Smith. He could be very good and then do bad things and wash it all out to meh
At nearly 26 with 3 AHL seasons, Stu gives up weak goals a lot, more than the steals. He has pretty big technique issues still like on the first goal where he lost his post and slid out of the net. I think this is him at this point, even if experience hopefully makes him mentally better. So for me goal isn’t settled still
The mention of the short summer and SCF, it occurs to me that Florida who had at least the roster turnover we had didn’t seem to miss a beat
The leaders need to lead by playing as the coaches are asking and not getting outscored. The players on for 2 GA: McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl, Nuge, Emberson, Hyman
The third line was OK, so was Ekholm. But the rest of the team sucked.
Yes, that’s what I am getting at by pointing out who had the worst results
Quite the statement after one game, relying on the Panthers’ one game sample size.
Not really. I make no predictions out of one game, but the Panthers came out flying. If Bob had a better game it would have been a blowout, .857 on 28 shots. The Oilers were the exact opposite, a shell of themselves. Of the two SCF teams, you would think the loser would have more fire in their bellies
They crushed Boston. Yes it’s only game 1 but it sends a message to the rest of the league.
Nothing seems as strange as when the leaves begin to change, and how we thought the Oilers wouldn’t lose G1 of the regular season.
Lowetide called it.
pretty sure nobody called 6-0.
Leaves falling, spiced hot beverages popping up everywhere, days are getting chillier and darker, and the Oilers are getting blown out in hockey games. Ahh, fall is here.
I watched the Leafs Game before the Oiler game with my daughters, who are Leaf fans, don’t know how that happened. Any way my youngest piped up saying the Oilers have some great names, she liked Agent-Hopkins the best, what a great hockey name. I laughed you mean Nugent-Hopkins. But that is a great name. We were calling him Agent-Hopkins the rest of the night. They were giving me the gears that the Leafs only lost 1-0. I told them it didn’t matter; a loss is a loss no matter how you look at it. How about those Flames coming back from a 4-1 deficit to win in OT. Gee whiz.
There was a poster named Hudson who would use transcription software to transcribe what Oilers management were saying during media avails. One time the software kept transcribing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as “New Jeans Hopkins”. New Jeans Hopkins will be burned into my memory until I die.
I agree it was not a good night, and that serious questions need to be asked about why they have a training camp and exhibition games, as well as how they use that time.
Still, it is an 82 game schedule, and I will only start to be concerned if they can’t get more than 2 wins from the next 7 games. They should go 4 and 3 to demonstrate they are up to speed, but who knows with this team.
The team is so wobbly because the best players don’t always want to do the boring stuff. Crosby was only on for 1 GA in 6-0 loss, while playing 4 more minutes than the others, by far the most 5v5 TOI for forwards. When Connor and Leon put that kind of determination in, they will be hard to beat. But it still comes and goes with them
Criticizing McDavid and Draisaitl is sacrosanct here. Instead we dump on the goalie who makes backup money.
I think this blog has been very fair to Stuart Skinner, so will push back on that idea.
Sorry, that wasn’t directed at you LT …more of a general statement/observation that we don’t hold McDavid and Leon to a higher standard of criticism commensurate with their salary and talent.
This team goes as they go.
Ah, I understand.
Exactly. Play responsible hockey and win. Don’t and it’s comeback city time and again. That might work reg season, sometimes, but is no way to get through the playoffs
The NHL.com tool WheatnOil ointed out really shows what the players are doing. Connor wanders too much instead of tight marking players. If he’s going to keep doing that, as Gretzky did, they need to give a winger the C back track and D zone responsibilities, as Kurri did
It’s not a bad tactic, having Connor ready to break. When Connor is down lower they have time to keep an eye on him, and he has 170+ ft to skate. If he’s higher in the D zone, it’s a lot of pressure on their D, one bobble and he’s gone clear. I think it would be very disruptive to their attack
One game yes. Still I have never settled with Stu. He can be very good, but he has some aspects to his game that aren’t good starter quality. Every player has off nights, but I don’t want the Oilers’ starter to be unplayable on a fairly regular basis, and have some pretty big technique issues, which I think he has still. I mentioned last night he loses the net and gets way out of position, and at times his glove is really weak. He seems to zone out like Jack
Sure Grant Fuhr had awful reg season games, but he also rose to the occasion in playoffs. Stu isn’t there yet, for me, I don’t think he will get there consistently, and that is what I worry about. He lets in a lot of saveable goals, and doesn’t often steal games
Someone will say they got to game 7. But to me that doesn’t negate what I’m saying. If he had a lights out game 7, as Montembeault did last night for example, they might have won the cup
I think they might have to look at a goalie at the deadline. I am not sure Pickard can carry the team as a starter. We will see how the season goes, if Stu has his ups and downs again, that’s what I’d do
Oilers fans and the team goaltenders have never been on the same page. Mike Smith’s save percentages are incredible, but his extreme puck handling and moments of absolute disaster didn’t allow for a warm relationship.
Oilers fans deserve at least one Bernie Parent or Dom Hasek in their lifetimes, I will say that.
Wallstedt was gift wrapped with a bow on top. No way Sather would have passed up on a possible franchise goaltender.
Sather and Fraser drafted Fuhr out of order to get him, so I concur.
still remember it, oilers had touted Fuhr before the Draft (which was held on a weekday morning back then). The round proceeded rapidly while Rod Phillips was doing his daily Oilers Report on CFRN, so he hung on until Edmonton picked at #8. Fuhr was still there, but unexpectedly, so was James Patrick, another guy the scouting staff liked. So the Oilers called a timeout to discuss it.
i was sitting there going pickFuhrpickFuhrpickFuhr & of course that’s what ultimately happened, Not that Patrick woulda been a bad selection either. The Rangers snapped him up at #9 & he went on to have a fine career.
But he didn’t even break in to the NHL until spring 1984, by which time Fuhr was a key player in Oilers’ first Cup win.
I think the Oilers traded up to get both Skinner and Rodrigue, right?
I believe that is correct.
More likely he would have traded for one with table scraps.
I was a Bourgault booster and was pleased with the decision but I am now willing to admit to it as a likely mistake. Wallstedt would be a huge boon to the emerging group of players.
That Xavier kid really seemed to have it in junior. Sucks that the one time the Oilers spurn common wisdom to draft my guy, he looks to be off track going into his draft + 4.
That said, methinks the real play may have been taking Knight in 2019.
No doubt Wallstedt is a very fine goalie prospect and likely has a solid future in the NHL but would he be helping the Oilers right now if he was drafted?
He has a career .897 in the NHL (3 games) and was .910 in the AHL last year (Rodrigue was .916).
No doubt I’d love to have him for the future but he would be impacting the 1A role at this time.
I think they have had incredible goalies, and incredible runs like Roli. But it’s been a while
I suppose after watching those guys, and other elite goalies over the years, there are things I see in how a great goalie plays – even though they have different styles – and when it’s not there
As for Mike, he was too much an activist goalie, and it hurt the team as I see it. Great SV% doesn’t cover great screw ups, and it is very hard on team momentum. When the Avs smoked us in playoffs, it was largely because they had become so dependant on him moving the puck, Bednar just cut off the defensive half wall and they were paralyzed
— Fuhr Moog Ranford then Cujo: Oilers fans have had plenty elite goalies. Fuhr often seen as best “money” goalie
Since then we’ve had Salo, Roloson, Talbot, Smith, and now Skinner. Solid starters but none of these guys were considered elite when they were drafted or at any time in their careers.
That’s what burns me about not drafting Walstedt … considered an elite goalie prospect in his draft year, he fell into our laps and we passed because we had Skinner and Rodrigue in the system.
Walstedt has done nothing to change the opinion of goalie scouts since he was drafted, and could have been a huge trade chip, similar to Askarov for Nashville.
I don’t think it was smart to feel content with goalies who hadn’t emerged as top starters in the NHL, even if promising. The Preds took Askarov after all, even with Saros. They are so rare, and the position so critical
Stu did not bring his mostly goalie pants with him, he did not play like a fella with something to prove after being regulated to back up the last few openers.
Loading up McDrai down 5 is wretched.
Team had a serious case of the brain farts last night, at least they’re not trying to implement a new and improved wheel scheme.
I enjoyed the play of the 3rd line, 4th line didn’t look out of place. Can’t be having your top line looking lifeless against the opponents bottom 6.
Regardless of the score the Oilers lead the shots, hits, and faceoffs the entire evening.
It will get better in a hurry.
Yes – down 5 I would do the opposite and roll 4 and 3 to get the system reps in. The game is already lost at that point
I’d roll all 4 lines as they brought them out, they all needs reps except maybe the 3rd. Seems they’ve picked up where they left off.
Skinner and Ard both had moments, Nuge and Hyman were as invisible as the captain.
Send lawyers guns and money.
Moving off of last night’s game and onto a potentially tired topic:
As someone who is not particularly confident in the team’s RD lineup, I see that Liljegren is apparently being shopped. I wonder if he is someone to keep an eye on.
I don’t expect he’s in our future because
1. the cap hit is likely higher than we want to spend (3mx2)
2. we likely want to evaluate our own D for more than preseason and a game before making a move.
But if this is a management group that’s interested in being proactive instead of patient, perhaps there’s an opportunity.
The Oilers know half their fanbase craves to be angry about the team and on their mighty hill of being right so this one’s for them.
It only counts as 1 loss.
Terrible game last night, and a sad day for my username.
Lifelong tennis fan here. Rafa Nadal was one of the great ones. Congrats to him on a brilliant career.
The second goal last night reminded me of Florida’s second goal in game 7 scf. After the goal I moved to the cornier of the room, sat down and hugged my dogs stuffed toy. I guess I’m not over the scf yet.
That felt like a rerun of last year’s opener.
Fun for 10 minutes as the Oilers seemed to dictate play despite a shallow deficit – but the team found itself in an increasingly deep hole as execution and readiness issues undermined what should have been the more skilled team. Had a feeling this was going to be the result when Bouchard’s first noticeable play of the game was mishandling a puck with no pressure and springing a breakaway the other direction.
The big difference from last year is that I’m bereft of the optimism that the team will look different on Saturday or Sunday – but also tempered with the faith that they can make the impossible happen should they find themselves in peril.
I have a theory that you can’t count on a team that’s reliant on high end skill, and offensive instinct to be up to speed on day 1. Your touch isn’t in form, your timing is off, and your play reads might be rusty. McDavid, Bouchard, Draisaitl – these are guys who are at the top of their game when in a flow state, but your flow states come sparingly on your first days back. Just a theory and perhaps not a great one, but it seems like this team has come out of the gate without execution for 3-4 seasons in a row now.
I haven’t commented in awhile since life has been insanely busy and I am not a hardcore enough fan to enjoy pay much attention during the offseason. One of the reasons I appreciate this blog is cuz others share their work for me and I can get caught up with some quick scrolling.
I cant grasp getting personal on a hockey blog where we all love our team and want them to succeed. But the thought that people take personal shots at LT is incredulous to me. Is there a more beautiful writer in the hockey world anywhere? The tapestry of childhood dreams and memories, personal anecdotes, musical narratives and analytical facts that LT weaves together even in the darkest days should render him, of all people, immune from this kind of thing.
As for the game, I am also tempted to blame the searing disappointment after the tough SC loss. But I would prefer a more defiant attitude from these guys rather than continual depression
well said.
We need a breathalyzer for some of the posters here, you can tell when some really get in the sauce which causes them to entirely lose the plot.
It was only one game, but it was sure an ugly game for the Oilers. I’ll wait a few games before getting too concerned.
Hangover from long playoff runs are real. It will take sometime for everyone to get their rhythm back.
Just under 3 hours to see if the Oilers value the accrual on $775K worth of cap space (knowing that will be gone fairly soon when they need to call players up for injury) more than Lavoie.
This time they know that if they waive him, they lose him. They have room for him – shit, he’s in the roster right now.
They could waive him or they could not and play him in favor of Perry on Sat (or keep him as the extra like tonight).
I don’t think they waive him today.
Makes no sense to reclaim just to waive him again and have him claimed by someone else. Maybe hold and trade, but I’d stick him in the lineup for game 2.
I don’t think they’ve shown enough in preseason to say they have all the scoring they need. I would love to see Lavoie in there to add speed and a scoring threat to the bottom 6. Both the Flames and Chicago will be pumped to add to the Oilers’ early season woes.
Maybe they should keep Lavoie and waive both of Perry & Ryan. Call up Philp & run (Lavoie-Philp-Podz) as the fourth line.
Just a note that, in 11-12 minutes last night, Perry and Ryan were the best two forward as far as underlying metrics go.
What underlying metrics were these?
Perry: 16-6 CF, 7-3 shot share, 70% expected goals
Ryan: 11-3 CF, 3-2 shot share, 68% expected goals
Didn’t help much at all. Oilers had better numbers statically than the Jets, except for where it counts, the final score.
I think it notable that the two players suggested to be waived are the two that had the puck going in the right direction the most among the forwards.
Oilers goal scorers thru 9 games including preseason:
Raphael Lavoie 2
16 players tied with 1
Lavoie waived today with management having full knowledge he almost assuredly gets claimed by another team.
They value accruing on the $775K more than keeping Lavoie’s rights.
Odd given one injury, illness, personal issue and they need to add at least $775K to the cap hit.
Lavoie waived.
important to get Perry & Ryan into both games of the impending back to back, I guess.
????????
Be interesting what they do with Lavoie today. Would have been a great vote of confidence for the kid if they would have given him an introduction before the game last night along with Stecher and Kane since he is on the roster and all
Was he in the building? If so, that’s a misstep for sure.
No idea. I think they should have mentioned his name either way though
Someone mentioned last night something I agree with. For years the Oilers have been a team that seems to read their own press clippings, get satisfied with how good they are, and then invariably get their asses handed to them. Not sure why they can’t or won’t learn this lesson. Hopefully last nights embarrassment will get them back on track.
On last night, I agree the entire team owns their performance. Goalie was awful and defense was terrible. But the Jets only needed one goal to win the game. I was sure our forward depth would be a difference maker this year, and I still think it will be. Didn’t look like it last night though. Score a goal!
It bugs me when they talk too much about things, I call it philosophizing. It somehow leads them to being unfocused or getting into their heads too much it seems. They always play poorly when that starts happening too much. Do it on the ice, give canned boring answers like most players do. Do it with your body, not your mouth. Stu and Leon are main culprits, as was Woody
My adult league team lost 11-0 Sunday night. I think i was on the ice for 6 goals against. That’s not bad considering we rotate only 3 D so there is lots of ice time. Anyhoo, I woke up Monday and all was well. Deep breath, gratitude list if necessary. I am so fortunate and wish the best for all of my Oiler fan friends.
— It was massive thumbs down remarked that there was no media questions to players or articles nor discussions in here of the stuff that really mattered in the training camp
— Why does this team not show up prepared for game one, what did they learn about this and what have they done differently this pre-season to have a different approach
— And Nurse with new guy was as advertised and we are at this stage. :“what do you expect he didn’t get a training camp, he needs time, and they need time together “
— I suppose start of season just getting glong blah blah: but the main reasons for the awful coach killing starts of recent years reared their ugly head:
1) No McDrai
2) Goalie not ready
3) coaches and tactics not ready
4) not being prepared
— I don’t think it’s random. They haven’t learned.
— we watch, we wait. Who’s to say it’s not going to be the same? Just because.
— I mean they are on paper a good team. Let’s see
GOILERS!!!
LT,
Please do not let a couple bad posters discourage you from the 99.9% of us that value you as a wonderful person and one heck of a hockey analyst. I have been reading your blog since inception and its my favorite stop every morning. If you have to pull a few weeds from the garden to get things manageable here, please do so. Thank you for your years of dedication to your craft and sharing that blessing with all of us that visit.
Well said.Perhaps Lowetide needs to use more KillX on those bad weeds.
Lol, well If that’s what the doctor has ordered….. 😉
I think this is the last season of the skinner experiment
Over the last two seasons, Stuart Skinner is tied for 16th in the league for save percentage, tied with Vasilevskiy and Bobrovsky. He is behind a lot of the elite goalies you can think of, but ahead of goalies like Talbot, Fleury, Binnington, Jarry, Mrazek, Markstrom and Blackwood.
If you end the Skinner ‘experiment’, who do you think replaces him?
A couple of days ago I read how Swayman’s $8M+ contract would be a comparable for Stu Skinner.
I think Skinner’s current contract nearly matches his actual market value.
Which one?
After a game like that it’s so tempting to review all the shortcomings this team has… again. BUT I’ll wait a game or two and see how they respond.
Great recap LT. It WAS a pitiful effort.
What concerned me most was the passing. You are correct in saying the team is not as fast, but bad passing made the team look even slower.
We can talk about speed and doom & gloom but as I posted last night, the 2019 St. Louis Blues were not burners (Ryan O’Reilly, Brayden Schenn, Patrick Maroon, etc. are not winning any Olympic speedskating medals) but that team clicked.
Maybe it’s just the team needs more time together to find chemistry, or maybe there’s still a hangover from the Cup loss. There’s still time to fix this, but the concerns are real.
Allegedly being fueled by marching powder would make anyone fast.
McDavid going in 1 on 4 is getting very tiresome.
I agree with you. His next step is to start using the attention he gets to set up someone else. Just like Wayne did, you have to out smart them, just trying to out skate is showing declining returns as teams are getting better at defending him as a group
This also heavily depends on his wingers learning to time getting to soft ice – read the play. They can cycle the puck, but they don’t set up enough quality chances net front with all that time as I see it. But I do see more coming against them that way
Someone always disputes this using aggregate stats, but we see it in playoffs in tight games when they really struggle 5v5 to get much. With the roster they have had and have now, they should be creating good chances in scoring areas at a far higher rate
One game, hopefully they start to gel and get pissed off and wake up
Hyman has figured it out. Maybe they should try Jeff Skinner up with McDavid, he was at least shooting the puck last night. Jets had 29 blocked shots; Oilers had 9.