The Edmonton Oilers are just finishing up training camp now, and should be NHL ready early next week. It’s not fabulous that other teams are ahead of them, but that’s a remnant from slow-playing veterans in preseason. This team, for years now, seems to need a gigantic hole to dig out of before the won-loss gets their attention. I’d say “damndest thing” but it’s clockwork, usually opening week and around Christmas. This time it’s the penalty kill, featuring goalies who literally can’t make a save during the PK. Helluva thing.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 0-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 0-2-0
I pay attention to five-on-five numbers. It’s the largest game state and with this team the power play is going to outscore the penalty kill most times. I can usually count on the special teams goal differential being net positive.
Currently the Oilers are 1-6 goals at five-on-five. One goal for and six against. As much as the penalty kill is getting roasted online this morning (five goals against on five shots is kind of impossible but true), my major concern is the five by five.
Edmonton has two goals in two games, and that’s not a winning formula in the NHL.
Edmonton has 11 goals against in two games, and that’s not a winning formula in any league and that includes air hockey.
The Oilers expected goals at five-on-five is 65 percent. The underlying numbers are positive (shots, Corsi, Fenwick) in the discipline, Natural Stat Trick has the high danger chances at 22-5.
So what is it? Well goaltending for sure. However, the Oilers passing has been brutal through two games, and last night these wonderful hockey players couldn’t hit the ocean with their shots. Seriously.
What do I blame? Preseason. It amounted to lollygagging. When the Oilers coaching staff was fretting about the poor fabergé egg veterans on the team, other clubs were looking to murder the early games of the season. It reminds me so much of the Dallas Eakins training camp when he couldn’t decide on which of the eight defensemen to play.
The Oilers aren’t ready for the regular season. They’re caught, one more time, in chase mode and wondering what went wrong. The good news? They’re getting frustrated. That means the hell fury of the Gods is close. The bad news? That fury may not come tonight.
The numbers are borderline useless in explaining the game, beyond Calvin Pickard’s save percentage. That is a concern, the Oilers goaltending needs to be far better in all game states.
The team needs to get back to the basics. Passing. Shooting. Getting inside your mark so he can’t hammer the puck. Take care of the puck when you possess it. Don’t wilt at the first sign of a forecheck. Forwards need to help out. There is some bad luck marbled through these games, but this Oilers team is talented enough to make its own luck. It would be really good for the fans to see some of that frustration turn into positive results tonight.
These Oilers look exactly like a teenager cramming for finals at 2am the morning of the test. Next year, maybe, maybe, maybe, the coaching staff will find a way to play the real lines and pairings in the last two preseason games. I know it’s a big ask, but it’s also a big advantage.
New for The Athletic: The Edmonton Oilers, Raphael Lavoie and signs of life in Bakersfield
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5838150/2024/10/12/oilers-raphael-lavoie-waivers-bakersfield/
Agreed. I’ve said one or two (dozen) times that this team can’t get going until their backs are against the wall.
Every single time they open the season as Stanley Cup favorites (2017, 2023, 2024), they $#!t the bed. They gotta stop reading their own press clippings and get to work.
If Woodcroft doesn’t figure it out he’s going to get fired
Just wondering out loud if 53 and 33 are rolling there eyes sitting on the bench watching 29 and 97 put together to try and salvage the game.
Would that be sending a negative message?
I think so. You take away the opportunity to let other people rise to the occasion, which builds cohesion and confidence, especially this early. It should be based on who is playing the best, usually Connor is one of those, not lately
Did Nurse deflect another own-goal past his goalie last night?
I read that, couldn’t watch the whole game
He did, on the PK.
By my calculations, the Oilers are rocking a 0.754 PDO (all situations).
This too, shall pass. They had a slightly better PDO at the beginning of last year and ended up a tad over 1.000.
score effects
Edmonton was outshooting and out possessing Chicago all night it wasn’t score effects.
I wish we started the season on the road anyhow ths team is going through the motions. Where is the emotion Patty had it for the Hawks but we were silent. Kris needs to light a fire underneath our leaders asses. Calgary will lay a beating on us if we continue to play without emotion.
Janmark punched him in the mouth
The 16 game winning streak kicked off last year when McLeod and Foggy were put up on Leon’s line, Erne and Hamblin brought lunch pails to the 4th line, and the team traded in their fancy Dan cards for good old fashioned puck possession hockey.
McLeod had his faults but he could be relied on for keeping the puck on the boards and cycling passes instead of low percentage one-and-dones.
That stretch, Nurse looked like a stud. He benefitted from the game being simplified. Opponents breakouts were always coming from the same ice, and Skinner looks like a Vezina finalist when he’s not backstopping a team playing pond hockey.
If anyone wants to send me to NY again and get this winning streak started, I’ll need two hours notice
We don’t have the defense to survive Jeff Skinner. That’s the mistake of the offseason
Whipping boys J Skinner and C Perry leading the Oilers in GF% at 50% 1-1. Meanwhile the Dynamic Duo are both -3
Jeff Skinner who was the most dangerous forward last night? Who’s tied for the team lead with 6 sog? Who’s 1 of 3 forwards to not have a – beside his name?
Damn you Jeff Skinner
Not ready is the official slogan of this team. They weren’t ready for offseason with no GM, they weren’t ready for preseason, they’re not ready for regular season
Time to DIG IN tonight.
Forwards have to close the gap between the defenceman at 5v5, so that the D-men can challenge the blue line entries better. D-men need to start separating man from puck and then move the puck to the forwards faster to trigger the transition game. Forwards need to drive the net and create chaos which will lead to more PPs; too much perimeter play from the vets so far; Perry, Arvi and Skinner have the right idea. Stu needs to shut the door early … can’t always be playing from behind.
Championships are won with defense, which has been sorely lacking in the first two games. We know this team can defend better … they just need to commit to doing the fundamental things that win hockey games.
They’ve been losing the game of goalie, not just by a little, for long periods now (years). I think Skinner could be a good 1A or1B, but his wild inconsistency is keeping him from achieving this. Nothing in Pickards history suggests he was a reasonable NHL backup and likely riding a positive performance streak, I hope I’m wrong there.
I would say Bowman is tracking down a goaltender as we speak. I don’t think he’ll be as patient as Holland.
Pickard put up seasons of .918 and .912 in the AHL, and then a .909 in the show. (Plus a couple good playoff games when our season hung in the balance.) That’s three seasons of solid performance. And by all accounts a solid team guy.
Goalies are voodoo, but Pickard is a solid bet for now.
Can’t win mostly goalie with the current level of play the Oilers are receiving.
Even more difficult to win when the opponents top stars are being more impactful then the Oilers.
The top line has been together for a long time now, McDavid played 5 pre season games averaging over 20mins a night.
The top pairing is getting beat as much as the bottom pairing.
The top line has 9 sog, the 3rd line has 12 sog in half the time.
Swap the McDavid and Ryan wingers.
Play Kulak more then Nurse.
Let line 2 and 3 continue to do what they’re doing, good things will come.
What? Put RNH and Hyman on the 4th line? Wow. How does this help?
Every other winger set is out performing them, only Podkolzin has less sog then Hyman currently. Hyman and Nuge, two of my favorites are looking like they’re stuck in the mud. I imagine they’d wake up real quick with a lil message from the coach.
Line 1 9 sog
Line 2 13 sog
Line 3 12 sog
Line 4 9 sog
Line 1 is seeing twice as much ice as Line 4, they’re not engaged enough.
Look for Stuart Skinner to be solid tonight – solid, solid, solid
Even with that, look for the Oilers to simply be sharper and crisper.
My heart agrees. My anxiety says nope.
Somewhere in the world, Jay Woodcraft is looking at a TV, chuckling, while cradling a half-empty glass of Scotch in his hands.
Incorrect, he’s in his basement working on his reinvented wheel.
The love affair with Woody is hilarious he’ll be lucky if he recieves another HC offer in the N.H.L.
He should definitely learn fluent Russian.
Do you mean the guy with a career .643 winning percentage? The guy who took over an underachieving team that was currently out of a playoff spot, and got them five rounds of playoff hockey over next year and a half? That guy?
Just trying to get my head around this start. Certainly maybe the goalies didn’t get enough preseason.
McDavid has played with Hyman and RNH for a couple years. The 3rd line has been together since the trade deadline. The 4th line has been good for both games.
Ekholm and Bouchard have been together for a couple years. Nurse was hurt so couldn’t play to get chemistry. Other than Kulak it literally was training camp and tryouts for the rest of the defense.
The players aren’t ready and I put that on them and not the coaches. They’ve trained there whole life to be here and I just don’t buy in that it’s because they didn’t play a couple games in training camp.
The players themselves say they’d like training camp down to 3-4 games cause it’s now way too long.
All this is just my two cents worth.
They start slow for seasons and games. Multiple coaches, multiple players, only the top players staying the same
My hope is Knoblauch can work to guide them to a different mindset, maybe use some innovative changes for Connor and Leon. The PP changes are an example of it
No player is above the need to adapt. Connor does what the greats do, add to their games each season. But it’s on a deeper level where the need can be. Yzerman is the classic example
I find Connor is so aggressive that it leads to him flying at the opponent, often trying plays that only he can pull off, but usually aren’t successful. He can be so focused on quick breaks and jumping on turnovers that he doesn’t focus enough on preventing, can be loose on his check. Leon has his version of it
I’m not saying they aren’t great players, they will score a lot, but every player has things they could do better. To me their next step is leading the team in attention to detail, the Oiler’s fatal flaw that leads to the inconsistent defensive play
They can do it for stretches individually and as a team, but to me not like the best two way players and teams. The next step is here. They have so much talent as a group, they should be getting to the point that they can control games and series regularly. Actually should be there already
They couldn’t last playoffs despite how far they got. The teams that could win cups and repeat have this in common, leaders that dominate the ice and are consistently hard to play against over 200 feet. Kopitar, Toews, Crosby, Point. They can do it, I’m not sure that they will given it’s a been a decade now
If not, I’d like to see Sather like creativity to make the best of what is happening. If Connor can’t dial in and clamp down back tracking etc, figure out how to maximize what he wants to do and his strengths, like what was done for Wayne. He’s not a traditional player, and if a traditional C role doesn’t suit him don’t keep asking him to do it. Yes he outscores, but I think they are still leaving cash on the barrel. Leon as well should be more dominant, the better wingers will almost surely help as we go, but the same applies I think
I think there game is just fine. It’s just that they’re not playing it yet. And I don’t think it’s coaching
I agree, it can’t possibly be coaching. This franchise has cycled in coaches at a crazy rate yet no one seems able to get theses slow, sluggish and seemingly disinterested starts out of the players.
Yes, I still think they need to add some new ways to set up chances. In certain game types they aren’t able to do much, especially in playoffs. The amount of points isn’t the same as when can you create them. Teams like this will smoke teams that let them do their thing, it’s when they don’t want that I’m thinking about
This is not quite accurate – they were essentially put together late in the playoffs,
They played 18 minutes together during the regular season and 52 in the playoffs (which is like 4-5 games).
Precisely.
In particular, given that the recognized injury to Nurse (probably still injured to some degree), it was critical that a temporary “second pair” be established and given several games together in the pre-season to address this issue. Instead of a carousel of players that don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell in playing in the NHL this year and a bunch of new players coming in (i.e., 2/3 of the 2nd line!!!) it was imperative for the team to have some urgency and strategy in the pre-season. Squandering talent and opportunity is a theme for this club. Painful for the clients.
5v5 SV% so far. Pick #22 .913, Stu #52 .667 which is last in the league. A few saves might help, especially PK
I’m unsure how this post, which I gather is accurate, gets a downvote. Truth-telling, the big concern is Skinner’s huge inconsistency in performance, which can turn a season upside down in 2 to 3 weeks. It adds to the stress levels.
We have seen it so many times over. Most teams play poorly – apprehensively – when they can’t be sure whether any shot might go in or not
I think it was a mistake to not try to upgrade Pickard. Playoff loyalties almost always don’t pay off. His SV% last season was good, but not historically. He also is pretty scrambly in the net, isn’t big in the net, that alone should should have raised concern that last season was the outlier
I have never had the feeling he can carry the team if need be, even if he’s a decent back up, and there is no one else. Did JJ not listen to the goalie coach, or does he think Pick is good enough? Either scenario is not good, given how important goalie is. A skater having a rough game you can hide
They should have signed Lankinen. Two years with Saros couldn’t have hurt his game, and he’s been the better goalie over the years. He also makes less money, Woodley likes him, would have pushed Stu more than Pick does
https://lowetide.ca/2024/10/12/hawks-at-oilers-g2-2024-25/#comment-1313412
Great minds think alike!
I took visiting family to the Flames game last night. So wonderful to watch a game through the experience of kids!
The Flames are playing well. The Oilers could very well be 0-3 by time the turkey is digested.
Disappointed in the Oilers brain trust that they didn’t give Lavoie a couple of games after they were able to reclaim him. If he was a bust after Chicago and Calgary fair enough. But if he scored a goal and an assist? Someone would have come calling. Donating him to the ether just to save a pittance towards the cap? Doesn’t sound like good asset management to me. Reading between the lines in today’s papers, Coach certainly sounded unhappy about how things were handled.
Totally agree. It was an unforced error.
Management going back several years doesn’t have a hot clue about Asset Management. Very few promising draft picks and most of those they piss away for nothing. Criminal.
Sure, the Oilers have nothing to show now for that draft pick but, at the same time, 32 other NHL teams has the ability to acquire that asset, for no cost except league min on their cap and all passed on opportunity.
One org was able, due to a stupid technicality, get the asset to their AHL team but 31 other teams managers had the ability to acquire this “developed asset” for free and at league min and chose not to. Did those managers not manage this asset the same as the Oilers in the last 3-4-5 days?
Game 1 was awful.
Game 2 presented several promising signs. Much improved puck movement. Chances galore, in spite of McDavid/Drai/Hyman/Nuge not yet at their usual standard. Impressed by the newcomers. Arvi/Skinner are legit top 6 and are not afraid to go to the high danger areas. 5’9 Arvi putting his ass into a dman who was probably 6’3, causing goalie interference, was comedic gold. Slightly less ass and that’s a good goal and apples for Dermott (who made a wonderful play), and Skinner (who made a beautiful backhand cross-ice pass to Dermott). Were there concerns about Skinner’s foot speed? I don’t share them. He gets there. Edges fantastic. Podz good. 4th line is playing well.
Don’t kill me 🙂 but I think Emberson will be good once he settles in, he moves well out there and passes the puck smartly.
I’ll add Perry has been very good. He is a limited player, kind of always has been, but he is really good at hockey, knows what to do around the net, and is plain mean, the latter two lacking somewhat
For me he is valuable if only how he plays rubs off on the guys who could finish more of their many opportunities, and create more when things are tight in the O zone. NST says his CF% was 94.12, crazy
Emberson hits as well. It’s so noticeable as not many others do. I agree, Emberson will be good. Just needs reps.
And stay healthy
Prospectio!
The Birds of Fire get the spotlight as Day, Clattenburg & Co. are in matinee activity.
While the captain (5 GP, 2-2-4) did not play yesternight, Day did and earned the W in a 4-1 decision. He is only one of two OHL goalies to have played every game so far for his team.
After a subpar (>4 GAA, 82.6 SV%) beginning to his season, Day-man has put up a 1.74 GAA and 93.5 SV% over his past four games. Early days (haha) but encouraging all the same.
Puck drop is at noon Morrin time.
“Fabergé egg veterans”
Cranky and ornery LT is the best LT
“The Edmonton Oilers are just finishing up training camp now”
First time I’ve lol’d at the opening sentence. Haha savage.
That and the air hockey got me
has to be getting tiresome for the season ticket holders to watch these starts