The Edmonton Oilers are just finishing up training camp now, and should be NHL ready early next week. It’s not fabulous that other teams are ahead of them, but that’s a remnant from slow-playing veterans in preseason. This team, for years now, seems to need a gigantic hole to dig out of before the won-loss gets their attention. I’d say “damndest thing” but it’s clockwork, usually opening week and around Christmas. This time it’s the penalty kill, featuring goalies who literally can’t make a save during the PK. Helluva thing.
WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER
- At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
- Actual October results: 0-2-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 0-2-0
I pay attention to five-on-five numbers. It’s the largest game state and with this team the power play is going to outscore the penalty kill most times. I can usually count on the special teams goal differential being net positive.
Currently the Oilers are 1-6 goals at five-on-five. One goal for and six against. As much as the penalty kill is getting roasted online this morning (five goals against on five shots is kind of impossible but true), my major concern is the five by five.
Edmonton has two goals in two games, and that’s not a winning formula in the NHL.
Edmonton has 11 goals against in two games, and that’s not a winning formula in any league and that includes air hockey.
The Oilers expected goals at five-on-five is 65 percent. The underlying numbers are positive (shots, Corsi, Fenwick) in the discipline, Natural Stat Trick has the high danger chances at 22-5.
So what is it? Well goaltending for sure. However, the Oilers passing has been brutal through two games, and last night these wonderful hockey players couldn’t hit the ocean with their shots. Seriously.
What do I blame? Preseason. It amounted to lollygagging. When the Oilers coaching staff was fretting about the poor fabergé egg veterans on the team, other clubs were looking to murder the early games of the season. It reminds me so much of the Dallas Eakins training camp when he couldn’t decide on which of the eight defensemen to play.
The Oilers aren’t ready for the regular season. They’re caught, one more time, in chase mode and wondering what went wrong. The good news? They’re getting frustrated. That means the hell fury of the Gods is close. The bad news? That fury may not come tonight.
The numbers are borderline useless in explaining the game, beyond Calvin Pickard’s save percentage. That is a concern, the Oilers goaltending needs to be far better in all game states.
The team needs to get back to the basics. Passing. Shooting. Getting inside your mark so he can’t hammer the puck. Take care of the puck when you possess it. Don’t wilt at the first sign of a forecheck. Forwards need to help out. There is some bad luck marbled through these games, but this Oilers team is talented enough to make its own luck. It would be really good for the fans to see some of that frustration turn into positive results tonight.
These Oilers look exactly like a teenager cramming for finals at 2am the morning of the test. Next year, maybe, maybe, maybe, the coaching staff will find a way to play the real lines and pairings in the last two preseason games. I know it’s a big ask, but it’s also a big advantage.
New for The Athletic: The Edmonton Oilers, Raphael Lavoie and signs of life in Bakersfield
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5838150/2024/10/12/oilers-raphael-lavoie-waivers-bakersfield/
As many adjectives that could describe this start, I keep coming back to complacent.
No one but 4th line and RD have anything to play for. Every one has their contacts, every one has their set lines.
This is a team that will peak come February and let’s hope these first 10 to 20 games don’t put them too far in the hole.
The roller-coaster is the Oilers way.
I’ll save my anger and disappointment until the new year.
It does seem like the right word/adjective.
They look the opposite of crisp – the puck bobbles, the inability to make a pass and to take a pass, everything being just a bit off – its lack of crispness and that could very well stem from complacency.
They (i.e. many of the higher paid stars) certainly look complacent in the defensive zone – McDavid and Hyman leading the charge.
We suck again…
Oilersnation saying this is the first of the three losses the oilers deserve to have lost but I think the opposite is the case.
They haven’t done enough to earn a win in any of the three games
One positive on the night – only tangential – go check out Klim Kostin‘s beauty left to Frank Vatrano’s jaw after Vatrano was dumb enough to cross check him.
Never shoulda let him go.
My God! It didn’t even look like Kostin put much effort into that punch.
Guys, it seems fairly obvious that the strategy this season is to go down 0-3 and then win 4 in a row and get really really good at doing that in prep for the SCF.
It’s also hilarious to me that Emberson is already a healthy scratch and Dermott is second pair.
And Dermott is the guy playing on his off handed side.
WTF?
Many players, especially 29 look slower.
It’s OK. Preseason means nothing. Once the Reg season starts they’ll be ready to go
You have to legitimately question a linesman’s competence when a puck bounces off the post and he calls icing. Baffling. What is the possible explanation? Does he not know the rule? There’s missed calls and terrible calls but I don’t even know what to describe that as.
It’s like a running back rushing for 6 yards to the 45 yard line and the ref calling “field goal is good”.
I thought I REALLY didn’t understand the rules
I was pretty confident Edmonton’s forward depth would shine through this year. So far it’s not close. Slow starts for a bunch of our best forwards and our defence looks overwhelmed. Need to get this thing on track soon
Passing. There were a ton of poor passes… too long, behind the target, in the skates… don’t know why, we just know these guys are capable of being so much better.
Together with skating it’s the most basic skill learned. These players seem to have bumbled (want to say lost) the skill of passing… we know that’s impossible, so common sense says passing accuracy will get back to normal. Normal is stick to stick. Please.
I didn’t think this team could be any softer than last year. I was wrong.
Don’t blame the refs, the actually calls on the ice were good goals.
The linesman however 😉
I miss McLeod, Holloway, Foegele, Broberg, Ceci, Desharnais, and McDavid. Who am I missing?
I thought Jeff Jackson knew what he was doing……
Stan would agree
It’s not the new guys that have been the problem … it’s the core guys McDavid, Leon, Nuge, Hyman, Bouchard, Nurse … that have to get it going.
Have Emberson and Podkolzin been acceptable?
i wouldnt mind putting dermott on waivers.. stetcher looked ok. no D men are moving the puck well.
I have been about as engaged in the Oilers season thus far as the Oilers have been, but the little I have watched Dermott seems to be misreading plays and chasing. Jeff Skinner has looked good thus far, hope he keeps rolling, pretty sure that the rest of the top 6 is going to get going soon
Each game has been a bit better than the last which is as good as you can hope for when training camp is clearly more turtle wax than tune up. Better Pk and Stu was fine both of which had me worried a bit. But 97 and Hyman and Nuge especially are MIA… it will turn around…
I would entertain trading Nuge for a big hairy-assed defenseman.
theres a idea 💡 🤔
Blasphemy!!!
You gotta spend money to make money.
What? Somebody has been drinking the silly juice😆
I did throw up a little in my mouth when I typed it. But still . . .
For arguments sake, if Nuge is traded for a Dman who slots into Nuge’s spot?
Darnell Nurse?
Right, so not a serious discussion
Exactly. It’s only hockey. A fun distraction from reality.
Slide everyone up a spot. Add a fourth line winger. Hope the slight downgrade up the lineup is offset by previously-mentioned hairy assed defenceman.
Oilers forwards who have been doing their job so far this season:
Skinner
Perry.
The real story isn’t the D, it’s not the goaltending.
3GF and McDavid right in the junker.
That’s the story.
Aren’t they all stories?
At this point they sure are
The lack of physicality is glaring. No one interested in finishing checks early in the game. Fly bys by the top two lines set the tone. Need some grit. May be a long season
A common theme of the McD era Oilers (not blaming McD):
-The team is always unprepared to start seasons/series.
-The team is only motivated when their backs are against the wall. They never make it easy on themselves.
I think McDavid shares some significant responsibility
He’s just floating out there.
I’d go so far to say he looks like he’s pouting out there. Too many changes for his liking perhaps.
3 goals after 3 games isn’t going to win many games. Tough way to start the year.
McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge and Hyman have been the worst forwards on the team. That’s why they’re 0-3.
Yup.
Particularly McDavid and Hyman.
Nuge has been non-existent and Drai not much better but McDavid and Hyman are costing goals against with horrid defensive zone play.
I think RNH turned the puck over more times in that shift than he did all of last year.
How long until Connor starts taking questions about last year instead of talking about this season?
Boys need to hit the road and get sh$t figured out
Brutal refs
Brutal broadcast
didn’t even mind the effort
but not a good product.
Hopkins gave that puck away multiple times.
Sometimes I hate this league
The refs even screwing the Oilers right there…this doesn’t help at all.
Lol. And Michaels thinks it is an advantage to have to take a draw at center!? Wild.
Jack and Louie pretended a face off at Center wad somehow good for them
No Skinner 6-on-5. Brutal.
Mystifying really.
He’s been the Oilers best forward so far.
Conner and Leon have had many passes picked off and not made it to the intended teammate.
They can’t resist attempting low percentage plays
I’m not saying that the refs should have called a penalty on Calgary with Skinner obviously trying to draw a call, but if the teams were reversed I’m pretty confident they would have.
Although on replay he does just skate right into him.
McDavid suddenly wildly unmotivated?
Skinner looking like the only dangerous forward.
I’ve refrained from criticizing Darnell because there are so many apologists plus I have some sympathy because I do think he gets shafted when he starts playing physical . There is bias in this league.
But his play has fallen off a cliff. I will suggests that any stats that show success with Darnell are a) no longer valid and/or b) despite Darnell. He has always had elite athleticism, but touch and IQ were suspect, and its just painful to watch now.
Kills cycles with muffins when there’s no traffic or rimming to the other team (because too soft or too hard). Same with passes in his own end – too soft so they get picked or too hard so it gets to the other team’s D.
This team has 1 D pair. It’s going to be ugly. Darnell needs a partner to shelter him. Should have matched Bro, kid was showing signs.
But thankfully never ices the puck😉
His game has steadily but too rapidly lost the facets that did once recommend him. I don’t think it’s likely he’ll reverse those trends, and I haven’t seen any signs of him adjusting his game in a way that might compensate for what he’s lost. He’s poor in every zone and a detriment to too many plays.
This kind of steady decline has to be the result of wear and tear, so maybe it continues until it’s tantamount to a long-term injury. Nothing severe or critical, of course – or at least I hope – just cumulative, which I think is already partially the case. Failing that, someone familiar with his growing limitations needs to work with him to refashion his game into something that can carry a third pair for the next half-decade.
Darnell should have never been paid to begin with and moved. 9 mil plus wasted.
So you are saying that Ceci isn’t to blame for everything?
Ceci was scapegoated by all the Nurse apologists.
He has to find something in his game that can have a consistent positive impact. There’s a glaring deficit of physical, nasty play on this team. He could contribute there, but hasn’t consistently since everyone knows when
Flames are a lock for 30th place this year……maybe 28th if they get some luck.
And the Oilers are shaping up to finish even lower.
Mcdavid looking for the green jacket this year?
Remember… last time they lost three in a row they won their next three!
Lol Did they win the next one?
Need to fire Knobber to fire up the boys😉
The team doesn’t play well unless their backs are against the wall. I’m not sure how to correct that and I don’t like it
This loss is not on Stu. It’s on the team in front of him.
Poor coverage on both GA in this period. Team is crap in their own zone.
How much is does the average ticket cost for a home game?
I still think Edmonton deserved to and wins this game 7/10 times… but that’s why you gotta show up every time because once in a while you get bit—this is hockey. So this game in a vacuum makes me mad because they deserve better I do believe; but upset at the season start because you need to bank points for nights like this.
Mcdavid and Hyman being responsible for 2 ga takes the sting off, your best players need to be that, and they will.
Good things incoming.
Chopping way too much water, and not carrying enough wood.
Calling Noah Philp? Matt Savoie?
Lavoie? 😉
No they are too young to play for this team. They will get Giordano and Shattenkirk
i don’t even want to watch the Bengals Giants game, but I’m going to
Watched Dodgers win 9-0 instead.
At least Skinner is shooting. Our stars are not yet shining.
Any idea why Derek Ryan seems to be getting so many shifts?
Because McDavid and Draisaitl suck out there.
Because he scored? 😉
Nuge sucks as well. Derek Ryan has more juice than any of centres
Is this a serious question?
I think it felt like he got a lot because he did more in his 7 minutes then McDavid did with his 20.
He played under 7 minutes at 5 on 5 – the least on the team
0-3 to start the season.
After Tuesday likely 0-4
When was the last time oilers had that start?
2015
Well at least Jack was excited by that goal
Getting as bad as Singh.
Nobody gonna play defence? Why do we always gotta learn that you gotta defend as hard as you attack?
Is McDavid going to do something or???
Yes he will try another 1 on 3 or 4.