The Edmonton Oilers face a perfect storm this week. The team is inconsistent, the coaching staff has experienced some shuffling, needs are obvious, there is no cap room and very few valuable assets to trade. It’s a mess. It’s also an opportunity. There are some examples, over Oilers history, of deadline deals that brought real value from players not yet at their peak. Please read this.
March 23, 1999: Edmonton sends a 2000 second-round pick (Kris Vernasky) and a 1999 fourth-round pick (Jonathan Zion) for D Jason Smith. This was one of Glen Sather’s final master strokes as general manager of the Edmonton Oilers.
February 1, 2008: Oilers trade D Dick Tarnstrom to the Columbus Blue Jackets for LW Curtis Glencross. This move typified Kevin Lowe as general manager. He made an astute trade and then evaluated the market price poorly. Glencross was a fine winger who didn’t stay long, but the trade itself was a good one.
February 29, 2016: Oilers trade D Martin Gernat and a 2016 fourth-round pick (Jack Kopacka) in the 2016 draft for LW Patrick Maroon. Peter Chiarelli’s home run deadline deal. The general manager promptly lessened the impact by signing Milan Lucic a few months later, but the value was there.
March 6, 2024: Oilers trade a 2027 fourth-round pick to the Arizona Coyotes for D Troy Stecher and a 2024 seventh-round pick (Bauer Berry). This trade worked out incredibly well. Ken Holland bled assets at a stunning rate at each deadline, but I liked this deal.
What would that look like this deadline? Shane Wright of the Seattle Kraken is likely to have a reasonable career, maybe better than reasonable. Graph via Puck IQ.
He doesn’t win faceoffs, and he doesn’t play much versus elites. However, he is 22 with room to grow. I think the Oilers should consider acquiring a player who isn’t close to 30 and is not close to free agency. Bowman does well in acquiring these players. Vasily Podkolzin, Ty Emberson, Spencer Stastney, Connor Ingram. That’s the ticket. At least, in my opinion.
On the Lowdown today, Rachel Kryshak will join us to talk deadline, Oilers, Leafs. Jason Gregor pops in too and we’ll chat Oilers in California, deadline, and the impact of Paul Coffey. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and YouTube.
What would happen if the Edmonton Oilers actually missed the playoffs?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7079004/2026/03/02/edmonton-oilers-nhl-standings-division-2026/
Miss the playoffs and you would expect some type of management change. KK with a contract extension that starts next year. If he is fired how does that not blow back on Bowman? Fire Bowman and KK becomes lame duck coach for the new GM. Sure be easier if they make the playoffs and win a couple of rounds!!!
A new GM has at least one get out of jail free firing of a Coach.
Good pressure by line 2 and Drai buries it!!!!
Another sloppy start by the Oilers. Can’t make a pass????
There were all kinds of metrics against Klingberg last year, and nitpick as you want he helped. Murphy doesn’t need to be a saviour, for the cost of a 2028 2nd rounder pick he needs to help improve things over their current standard. He will
What are you talking about? Some people had an issue with Kling’s cap hit. Otherwise the situations are not comparable. Kling was coming off major surgery. The move was universally praised because he was acquired for free.
Almost like Murphy. As in Murphy was almost free.
Equating a 2nd round pick to nothing is just bizarre.
It’s that type of thinking about asset value that will ensure the McD Oilers don’t win the Cup.
Montreal used Edmonton’s 2nd round pick to draft Lane Hutson. Yeah, almost nothing.
Another one of our 2nd round picks was used to select Brock Faber
Dug into the puck IQ data – Murphy is getting smoked against the elites because they aren’t generating any shots/chances when he’s on the ice against elites. They aren’t generating anything but also aren’t giving up as many chances/Shots when he’s on the ice relative to his teammates which is why he’s getting good grades on all the WAR models and stat cards for defense (and bad grades for offense).
Dangerous fenwick (which, someone correct me if I’m wrong but IIRC is essentially expected goals but on a scale that is more comparable to shot attempts) – all this data is vs elites only
2025-26
(34% DFF vs elites, 27% TOI vs elites)
DF for/60: 26.1 – worst on his team
DF against/60: 49.7 – tied for best on the team (worst is Levshunov at 69.7)
2024-25
he was much better (43% DFF vs elites and played more vs elites- 32% TOI)
DF for/60: 35.8 – middle of the pack om his team
DF against/60: 46.7 – best on the team again
for comparison, Seth Jones on the same team in 24-25 vs elites:
DF for/60: 33.9
DF against/60: 58.4
Jones got traded to Florida and instantly had amazing analytics.
so basically in summary – yes Murphy got smoked against elites this year but also his whole team gets smoked against elites because they are terrible and inexperienced. And Murphy maintained over the last two years the best shot/chance suppression on their team against elites.
it also makes sense that they don’t generate anything against elites when hes on the ice because he barely plays with Bédard (136 mins this year) who, along with Bertuzzi is basically their only offensive weapon – they are the only two forwards with > 30 points this season.
his dangerous fenwick % against lower competition are very good (49% for middle, 50% for gritensity) are both best on the team which is again really impressive considering he barely plays with Bedard.
very good pickup for the price I think and hopefully his analytics will improve like Jones’ did.
If plays 2nd pairing in Edmonton, he is going to face quality comp.
Yes, and he will be playing with better teammates.
Thanks for the great analysis; the analytics you dug up really paints the picture of a RHD who can help to reduce goals against at even strength and on the PK. Maybe the kind of D-man you can throw out after the Oilers score a goal to lock things down for a few minutes?
I wonder how Murphy stacks up to other more famous RHD that get a lot of press for their defensive prowess – I’m thinking guys like Tanev, and Carlo.
One thing I would caution with respect to extrapolating … Seth Jones went to a Florida team that already had very good team defensive structure in place. The Oilers are more like chaos incarnate in their own end right now.
The problem is context is missing.
Players that have high rates of on-the-fly stats are nearly always bad. There are a few rare exceptions. Victor Hedman is one.
However, when you pair bottom pairing TOI with high OTF starts, they are always bad—especially if they also have slow boots.
The reason they are shifted on-the-fly is so the coach can limit their exposure to elites and high leverage situations or out them on the ice against elites when the puck is heading the right direction.
Tyler Dellow was the first to discover and discuss this effect. Some used to call it the “3rd pairing effect.” People used to scour other teams bottom pairing d, and they’d think they had unearthed the next Devon Toews because they’d find some guy who has great stats against the elites. Only because he is shifted on against them when the puck his headed to their end of the ice.
It explained why d like Matt Benning, when he was an Oiler, had great stats, but was a bottom pairing d. Many used to think he was being underutilized.
The curious thing about Murphy is that he has rookie levels of OTF starts, but still has terrible DFF against elites.
There are so many wrinkles to on the fly, one day we’ll get them in a row. Mark Fayne used to get riveted on this blog because of his shot differential, but he came off the ice with the puck going north all the damn time. Must have played lacrosse as a kid. Anyway, the bottom line for Fayne was Todd McLelland didn’t like his foot speed and that’s fair. But the numbers also buried him, and that wasn’t fair.
Wait is this true? Just skimming Fayne’s numbers, his GF% was very poor. Even for the Oilers at the time. I thought the general consensus was that Fayne was a NJ system player.
The year before he was singed, Fayne was partnered with Andy Greene, who shined him up.
Do people honestly think Murphy is a top 4 dman???
The guy’s TOI is tanking on one of the worst teams in the league. If that’s not an indictment on the player I don’t know what is.
Hard to see how this is an upgrade on Stetcher who they gave away for free.
All the evidence points to a bottom pairing D.
Yes. A bottom pairing RHD. You know what that does? Let’s Walman play left. Then pushes nurse down.
Also hot take: our d was so solid when stretcher was playing RHD in playoffs. Then we put Ek in against Florida, a LHD, and that pushes Walman to the right. And walman on the right is not where we want walman. Our d got materially worse after that.
So either Emberson or Murphy have to play 2RHD in this scenario. Yikes.
I don’t think we’ll really know until we see him play with the Oilers.
Every season of his career, he’s been a 19-20 minute 2nd pairing D-man, and the knock on him was that he was injury prone. This year the hawks started the season by fading his minutes except on the kill … go look at his TOI in games from the start of October to December; its kind of bizarre … big PK minutes, but not getting much time 5v5. Then things revert back to his career norms in late December, and he’s getting 17 to 21 minutes per night again.
Maybe he was nursing an injury through the early part of the season?
If he improves the PK and stabilizes one of the pairings with either Nurse or Walman, then we will make the playoffs. If not, then the Oilers are likely missing the playoffs due to an inability to keep pucks out of their net.
I’m not sure that there was anyone else they could get who would have better addressed things that are limiting the team’s ability to get W’s … the PK and lack of physicality on D … given the lack of cap space and tradable assets.
He has a long career of playing above Stecher on depth charts.
His TOI was lower earlier in the year as they were plying 7D many nights and playing young players – over the last few months he’s been near 19 minutes per month and playing well.
I am concerned that they were playing 7D because Murphy was injured again. Given his history, my major concern is that he won’t always be available.
They’ve done it! The annual add to the blue that somehow instantly reminds longer serving Oilers Dmen how to play defense. Instantly. Book it.
Effect only ever lasts 1/4 to 1/2 season, so week of the TDL is the time to do it.
Lol. The unfortunate side effect is a future long term contract!
I like the trade. I think it’s good value for the Oilers. However I will say that it’s kinda surprising that no other team outbid the Oilers for Murphy if Murphy is indeed a 2RHD.
Besting an offer of a 2nd round pick in 2028 for a 2RHD should have been a no brainer for most other teams, and yet…
He is not a 2RHD.
One of him or Emerson better act like it.
I know that Murphy is not a sexy pick and I would probably not re-sign him. But getting one of the defensemen from the top pk unit in the league to help the 26th ranked unit has to have some value
Listening to Bowman on Oilers now and I expect they’ll re-sign Connor Murphy at some point (not right away) but Bob asked about it.
33 in a few days….and already one of the leagues slowest players….but Stan wants to extend?
Huh?
8 years
10 x 10.
Lol.
That extension has the potential to become a Henrique like problem. However I have faith in bowman and hope if he signs him it’s as a 7 dman. Stecher like deal.
Also why can’t we just start teeing off on goalies through and through?
It wasn’t Nurse that started the idiocy in San Jose… that was Ingram deciding his net wasn’t important during a sortie that hadn’t left his zone yet. It’s not actually Nurse’s fault that Jarry sucks hind tit. he’s doing that all on his own.
We had three years of baby sitting Stu and his below replacement play. Let’s not replicate it with the new guys.
I’m curious: Why?
ps. Re Skinner – by the time I started watching a couple, three years ago the pitchforks were already out and torches well lit. I’m hoping the good folks of Oilerville have understood by now that there was and is no “goalie problem” when the club has “defensive irresponsibility” rash all over the F&D. From top to bottom, to paraphrase one of those responsible for the irresponsibilities.
It was never a goalie problem. It’s a team defensive awareness problem.
This
25’ stacked most key NFL pos identifiers from Draft shows player mechanics.
Identifying each Pro Football Focas player specific (ex. 50+ A Gap Pr% perf vs xAvg (4.7 Pr%) Dex Lawerance was 133% above xAvg) a freak! Measures.
start with a position Action.
QB get pass Tds, Efficintky w/ limited Int.
6 Key simple idents.
Top 6 Qbs: 61% – 69% Avg+ rate gms
1.89+ TD/gn,
5.7+ TD%
3.21 TD/int
100.8 + rate.
Then go to deeper res by ( Team,comp, sys) xAvg method.
24 NFL MVP Allen 72.2 pass rate vs top AFC pass def.
Mahomes 24,25
38% avg+ rate, #16 – #22 Qb in key indicators.
Vs #2 Pass def in Super bowl (Qual of comp) = his perf was expected.
Yet Shouty Shows (credit Check the Mike) had Mahomes top of many so called media pundits elite QB list.
People are betting on this.
It could be considered potentially criminal.
Most is click bait. When they say, “I think ….” I ignore”
But player comments Parson, re J. Campbell at pick 18 23 draft
He fits NFC gm (Run driven)
Academic Heisman “he has a Kuechly brain to get players in best pos.)
His Short area quickness (Elite n 5 of 6 explosive RAS)
Has zone depth cover ability.
= AP1 LB 25’
Media have Naratibe that are often bull.
You do not take a ……… at pick…
84% win rate with the only (RunD) Top RB Yscrm efficiency (Yd%, TD%, 1D%) gm.
Offence RB, OL, Rec blocking
Def DL, LB, Box DB
Many so called low value pos.
Get largest +ve affect for least capital outlay
w/ Lowest cost players RB, LB, S, C (Call OL sets.
Do same with NHL,
Ex. Dmen eye placement in def of HD SH area.
Don’t ever stop being you.
Thanks Ricki – great to hear from you
Klimas lid says buckle up, Stan’s getting ready to cook.
He’s had some good insider knowledge this year so I would guess we’re not done
I do wonder if the next course….is Italian
Klima is legit and I was messaging with another similar type of “source’ who I know for a fact is close friends with an executive in Oilers management and he says there is a humdinger in the works – Bowman is cooking.
2 Mutts Hockey Podcast
@2MuttsHockeyPod
According to Bob Stauffer today Toronto Maple Leafs
3rd line Centre Nicolas Roy will be the new Oilers 3rd line Centre in the very near future!
Would that be a good thing? Don’t know much about him and his stats seem like a mixed bag. Big body, but does he use it well? Is he quick on his skates?
And who would they trade out (that TO would accept) to fit him in?
Yes…I think so,
He’s a very good skater and likes to hit.
Having an actual 3C would certainly be an upgrade.
I’m thinking Toronto would want a prospect and perhaps a pick in return.
NHL Edge has him below 50th percentile in speed for every year of his career. He has 61 hits this season (career high of 85). Not a huge hitter by any stretch, but not shy physically either.
He’s the one that gave the ultimate cheap shot to Frederic beak in the playoffs last year against Vegas.
The only realistic way that happens is if the Leafs take back Mangiapane, right?
29 year old, 6’4″ RHC making 3 million this year and next. Gets between 30-40 pts per year, used on the PK by both Vegas and the Leafs. Has improved a bit in the dot this season, but he’s got slow wheels.
Stop adding these types.
Play Samanski.
Learn the lesson from Henrique, Mangiapane, and those types.
Samanski can play on the wing too might take Henrique’s spot on the fourth line.
Samanski=Lazar-Freddy.
Or who knows maybe Leon wants him on his wing?
A big RH C has been on the wish list ever since Jarett Stoll was traded away.
Nicholas Roy is not Jarrett Stoll.
He’s neither a good skater, nor does he hit that much, unlike what HH was posting above.
Unless the cost is Mangiapane and a low pick, I’d prefer to keep the powder dry and call up Samanski and give him a chance to play.
Treliving is in fact this dumb.
Toronto and their media overvalue their players.
Go have a listen to Kypreos after the Murphy trade … they still think OEL is worth a first round pick.
2 butts is not a source and Bob didn’t say that.
Nic Roy had an XG% of 52-58% (+2.6% rel) for most of his career.
Last year 50% (-1.9% rel).
This year 44% (-4.5% rel).
Great, another Frederic! And this time we give up Ike Howard instead of Max Wanner….
Just take the L for this year and load up for the next two years.
I see Stecher was recently benched but also plays 20+ mins a night. Is his play dropping off?
Is Connor Murphy a clear upgrade on Stecher? I legitimately don’t know.
If so, the other Q is would Stecher and Murphy not have been a good plan for insurance on the right side?
I watched the last Leaf’s game. Stetcher could not handle the Sens forecheck at all. He battled hard (was one the few Leaf’s out there with any jam), but was just too small and slow to be effective.
First thing I do when evaluating a defenseman is look at the TOI.
At first glance, we just traded a second rounder for a bottom-pairing defeseman. Dude is averaging 16:33 toi/g on a non-playoff team..
He averages 13:19 at 5v5 and nearly 3 minutes per game on pk.
By Puck IQ, his DFF% against elites was around 35%.
By NHL Edge, he can’t skate.20 mile per hour top speed.
This is redolent of Ken Hitchcock’s “thank god we traded for those NHL defensemen” all over it.
Oof. He is second in on-the-fly starts per sixty. That ain’t good.
Sentiment seems to be positive. A second rounder for a aging, slow, third pairing d seems steep.
Im not disagreeing with you but you are ignoring the salary retention component of the acquisition price
If Murphy is a bottom pairing defender, which he looks to be, then he was never worth his original $4.4 cap hit.
Hawks are butt and he’s 32. They’re playing the kids and letting them get their lumps.
He has more to give on a contender imo but it does have an air of ‘we gave up 2 2nds and Kulak for older Stu Skinner and Cody Ceci.
Ceci is exactly the archetype. I was just about to post that. High Pk usages. Doesn’t create offense or move the puck, not fast.
I think Murphy is a clear the net and make people pay in the corners kinda guy. We don’t have one and ceci was not that
I thought the same when I first looked him up. The others are right in rhat he wasn’t playing much to start the year as they were playing their young guys. Since January 1 he is second in D TOI – 18.5 minutes a night. And he played much more against elites the previous two years and had more success. This year he is getting killed by elites but doing well against lower comp.
I think he could be ok playing with a guy like Walman on a better team. It’s tough to know with players coming from terrible teams. Smarter analytics people than myself – Sid on Twitter and Bruce Curlock both like the deal. Atleast the price was right and he will definitely help the PK.
Two totally different styles of defenseman.
I’m no expert, but I’d say Murphy has size and a better defensive game. Stetcher is a better skater and more “skilled”.
I prefer Murphy, as the Oilers can’t defend and the West has some big/tall star players.
Reach: Presented 3D ( Team, comp, ZS) expevted avg on hear 07/08
People argued against. Now the xAvg is standard.
But the 4Th Dimension VAR, 4 ZS type data sets is the largest affect.
OZ FO success vol soft, DZ FO success Hard
On fly bench chg Vol: w/ Puck (Sheltered), W/o Puck (toughs)
Only fly vol /60 is quick check.
45-60 Bchg/ 60 are getting the toughs.
30+/60 ShelteredvOFF Fwds McDavid, etc.
Inwalked VoR Rob Vollman Thru my Boolean logic Mech success route trees (age 18 U of Sask 82+) method. Which turns Compressed def area sports (w/ nets into robotic Seq of Operation success actions.
D. Suter to me at Cactus corner near Hana after congrats him for McNabbtrade.
” U into analytics.”
Me “ Yup”
D “ We are turning them into F….. Robots.”
@NHL_Sid
Connor Murphy ranks 3rd among all defencemen this season in EvolvingHockey’s Defence WAR model.
That would go against the “always defending” theory some have ascribed
Sure, But being -5 on an abysmal Chicago team over last two years combined doesn’t quite fit that narrative
And yet – Chicago made a decision to not play him much.
Hat tip, to Benign Bone on his increased ice time since January…
One of the leagues slowest players…is suddenly a top 4 Dman..?
Great, low cost trade.
Do the pairings now look like:
Ek-Bouch
Walman-Emberson
Nurse-Murphy
Statsney
??
If Murphy plays lowest competition, and Nurse is not trustworthy, does bumping 25 down make the most sense? I personally rate Emberson’s ability to play a puck moving role as better than he has been given. And if the lower two pairs are playing equivalent minutes I wonder if that improves the result. Murphy sounds like a better stylistic fit to Nurse (cycle-breaking, stay at home, entry denial??) and not playing his off side. Who knows, maybe he can “fix” Nurse enough to get us to the playoffs.
I think the centre fix is Samanski, btw. With only $200k space remaining, I can’t see anyone else coming to plug holes.
If walman gets on the left side, and pushes nurse down, I don’t care who plays on the right!
So, Connor Murphy to the Oilers that has been discussed by the talking heads for weeks finally happened. Why is the Oilers’ shit always leaked before it happens?
I don’t know much about him, can’t say I’ve ever noticed him, and there are good and bad stats being discussed. Time will tell, but the Oilers really need this to work. Acquisition price seems reasonable, especially if he improves the PK.
PuckIQ has him playing against the second easiest competition amongst the Blackhawks D
I looked at final 4 rosters dating back to 94. The start to jump from .865 to ..915. The game became defensive.
I posted theory #50 April 17-21, 17 HF boards & 1 of three preductiins in life.”
” VGK going to be GA cuo final team yr1.”
”Ocean going to fill w/ plastic” picked lobby push for pladtic Tech writing class NAIT 94.”
Buddy Eugene as conformation recent moved to Atlanta, GA “Wife got key Corp pos.” post DOGE.
When I looked at CHI cup winning roster Talon had the roster already built before. Bowman who has done everything to move all top 60 Def D on Oiler roster.
Yzerman built team in Tampa. How is Det doing!
Connar Murphy is #176 Evga/60 Def Dman.
Last ….. thing oilers need.
At this point it looks like Owner bought the Oilers for district center not winning. Based on my exp……
Those new here Dad was Avro Artow, NASA, ESA, CIA, NORAD,
The political tastes & families you are hearing about right now dad explained.
NOV NYse Rig Equip/Bid design RUS vs Chenney started w/ Obramavich, Berezovsky, & Konstantin Kisins dad adm CIS countries.
Left at Putin, Medevedev Bris. (Orthodox Christian’s) stop of funneling $ thru Europe.
Go Oilers!
But hey my Det Lions traded 4 a top 10 Pass blk C today!
I wish I understood, do you like Murphy or not? I thought he’d be a Ricki d?
Wtf man! He’s the king of the Ricky D and you’re still not happy!!!
I actually like that Bowman jumped first. I don’t think OEL or Faulk would have moved for anything less than a 1st rounder and as we get closer to Friday the prices might go higher.
Murphy might not be the ideal fit but I don’t think we overpaid badly for the rental and now we’ve set the market for everyone else to go over.
I’m not the biggest Murphy fan or anything but I think he is exactly the type we need. Hard ass make you pay to get to the net. Punish you in the corners. I’d prefer him with Walman in the 2nd pairing but part of me wants him to play with nurse so he can rub off on him again. Although KK might neuter him and not let him hit
I’m pretty happy with Murphy, I really hope it works out. The Oilers don’t need a D like OEL or Faulk, they need a stay at home big rough D, like the good old days. He’s a former 1st rounder so I hope has some puck skills
Apparently he is hard net front and in the corners (a Hawks reporter Gregor had on says he tries to knock guys into the stands), blocks shots and takes no guff. Zub was the only other one I thought would help, but Murphy has more snarl
I wonder if Erik Haula will be the 3c Oilers acquire at a reasonable acquisition cost, leave it at that and hope for the best.
I would like another gritty, tough forward personally. Like Sam Carrick was that can play in the bottom 6. I don’t know who that guy is though.maybe it is Sam Carrick.
I wish they had signed Sam Carrick instead of Henrique; they could’ve afford McLeod (on his deal at the time) and Carrick for essentially the same cap hit as Henrique.
It could end up being Laughton or Roy from the Leafs as well. They’re gritty and younger than Haula…Haula impressed in the Olympics,. I guess it’s just a hunch.
I’d much rather just run Samanski than pay anything for Haula. Watched him disappoint in a few playoff runs and he takes an absurd amount of penalties (taken 40 more than he’s drawn in the past 3 years). Further, take away his PP points and he’s on a wholly unimpressive scoring pace.
Why not ROR?
Sure if they can afford to go that route.
Nice work by Stan getting Murphy. Hard to complain about getting a big, experienced RHD at the deadline for only a 2nd rounder in the distant future.
Chicago Blackhawks D stats dont translate to the Oilers as we learned with Duncan Keith. I expect Murphy’s numbers will be better across the board with the Oilers than with the Blackhawks.
If this deal has the knock on effect of reducing Nurse’s minutes, that just gravy.
BOWMAN PRESS CONFERENCE WAS DISCOBOBULATED ALL OVER THE PLACE.
Worth noting regarding Murphy’s TOI this year is that CHI often ran 7D early on and seemed to be making an active effort to play their younger RD (Rinzel, Levshunov and Crevier) to help them develop. As the season has worn on, he’s been taking on a heavier load of around 18.5 mins/game since January 1.
Murphy’s also been a bit injury-prone (due to his playing style) throughout his career; the reduced playing time early in the season hopefully means he’s got less wear and tear on him.
Murphy #1 D on Blackhawks for 5×5 HDCAllowed per 60 at 9.69 next best is 11.98
That 9.69 would be best on the Oilers
Emberson 10.5
Ekholm 10.82
Bouchard 11.2
Nurse 11.39
Stastney 14.17
Walman 14.51
Just wait til he starts playing for these defense-optional Oilers
Can’t say the Oilers aren’t utilizing the maths these days.
A PK specialist. Very interesting.
I don’t know how he plays. A cycle breaker would be ideal. If he’s good enough at getting his partner the puck in the dzone he’ll be fine with any of Nurse, Walman or Stastney.
Interesting pickup at a very reasonable price.
Connor Murphy is a slower but more physical Cody Ceci, or a less talented Adam Larsson or Josh Manson, if you will, or a less fossilized Luke Schenn.
In other words, a throwback defensive defensemen.
You can’t have your entire D populated by these types, but teams need to have one them in the mix, especially on the kill; our PK went into the tank when Ceci was moved.
What about a modern day right hand shot Laddy Smid?
Yes – that’s a great comparison, actually!
Thank you for the intel!
I’ll happily take a cross between Ceci and Desharnais.
Connor Murphy is 6th in TOI for a putrid team
But he is going to come into a cup contender and be better?
at 33?
Whoa there … “Cup contender” … that’s overstating things a bit.
The Oilers are a bubble playoff team who basically need to win out in order to avoid hitting the gold course in April. Our next five games are against the Sens, Avs, Stars, Canes and Knights … everyone of those teams is good or better than the current iteration of the Oilers. Sharks and Kraken are both breathing down the team’s neck with games in hand.
Mmmm no the Pacific division is actually shitty enough that they can play like this and might still end up first place.
Not bad for an on the fly retool
The Oilers need to survive the next two weeks, or they may end up on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in. They are also in a position where they are going to need help from other teams playing the Kraken and Sharks.
Right now the Oilers are closer to being out of the playoff picture, than they are to being a Cup contender.
You’re never going to convince me that a whole lotta teams running hard negative goal differentials can out will Connor McDavid into the playoffs.
Who the hell is going to score for Seattle and L.A.?
I know it looks very weird but when these guys correct their defensive dumbassery they will blow teams out.
They are scoring near the finest levels they’ve ever scored at and it’s only been three games since Savoie has popped off and both Drai and Hyman are in scoring funks.
Way better than the geriatric home that is Vegas or the spent force known as Colorado.
That’s the thing though – we’ve been waiting all season for these guys to correct the ‘defensive dumbassery’, and now they’ve dug themselves a hole deep enough that they are mathematically out of the playoffs … of course the Kraken and Sharks have to win those games they have in hand over us. But that doesn’t change the fact that at this time of the year, you are what your record says you are … and right now the Oilers record says that they are a bubble playoff team. Are they capable of being better than their record? … of course. Will they commit to playing the way they need to make the playoffs for more than one game? … they haven’t all season long, so I’m skeptical.
And if you’re going to argue goal differential, then it’s a bit hypocritical to throw shade on the Avs, as they have the best goal differential in the league by a large margin.
It seems he can’t read the standings.
Not only do the “Spent Force” lead the league in goals scored but they also lead the league in goals against.
Lol how’s Vancouver and the new Tochet system?
I know we butted heads on Peety and PLD being total jokes but there’s no reason to get uppity.
Cale Makar is the most overrated player in hockey after his linemate Nathan.
Morgan Reilly and John Tavares 2.0
He’s 32 now with a March 26 birthday. Someone mentioned the comparable of “taller Kris Russell” with all the good and bad connotations. Unless, we re-sign him to an ill-advised extension, there’s a lot less chance of the bad happening.
Ekholm was acquired under the same circumstances being 31 turning 32 shortly after his trade.
Worth noting regarding Murphy’s TOI this year is that CHI often ran 7D early on and seemed to be making an active effort to play their younger RD (Rinzel, Levshunov and Crevier) to help them develop. As the season has worn on, he’s been taking on a heavier load of around 18.5 mins/game since January 1.
That’s the spirit we’re looking for.
But yes – I like McSoreley33’s optimism,
I wish we had McSorely we have 2 Cups as he would have cleaned Bennett and Tkachuk clocks with one hand tied behind his back. Sather was a genius he always protected his skill.
Murphy #1 D on Blackhawks for xGF%
And yet his coaches chose to give him way less ice time than his peers….
Likely somewhat attributed to giving overtime to younger players as they aren’t in the playoff race.
46.7%
Connor Murphy will be 33 in a few days….
3rd pairing D
33 is not old for a d-man and he’s a UFA at the end of this season – his age is a non-issue.
He’ll be long gone before he turns 34
He may be signed to an overpriced contract here before he turns 34.
The Blackhawks have the #1 PK in the league and Murphy is 1st pair PK D
2:57 PK/Game
Oilers D PK time per game:
Bouchard 1:53
Ekholm 1:49
Stastney 1:33
Emberson 1:30
Nurse 1:17
Walman 1:08
His overall TOI has dropped almost 4 minutes per game this year vs last. Not a good sign
As one of Stan’s harsher critics i do like this trade a lot, especially the cost. Much better option than a 1st for OEL / Faulk IMO. Walman – Murphy or Ekholm – Murphy are both intriguing to me. And I like a couple of this type of dman instead of the smaller puck movers they’ve been stockpiling.
Absolutely – OEL is soft … like allergic to physical contact, soft. And he had a year left on his deal after this season.
Murphy may or may not be a good fit, but there is no commitment required after this season. And if he’s a good fit, then the Oilers stand a better chance of resigning him for something reasonable in a weak UFA class, with lots of teams having ample cap space.
Hopefully in Murphy they have a d man who will punish guys if they try to get to the crease. Hopefully it rubs off on some of our other d who roll out the welcome mat
Ekholm/Bouch
Walman/Murphy
Nurse/whoever.
Looks good, I would love to see Walman start moving better instead of a baby learning to walk. It’s baffling.
Even Chicago didn’t play Murphy in the top-4.
Chicago is trying to develop their youth, they’re in a very different situation. Veterans often find their minutes reduced on rebuilds until theyre shipped off to a team in a more advanced timeline.
Hemsky went from a bottom 6 winger to a point per game top 6 winger in Ottawa when he was sent away.
Whoever is Emberson who has been fantastic at 3RD this season.
Nice trade. A steal to get a veteran RHD at half cost for only a 2nd.
Can still add a Center like Roy or winger like McMann without trading a 1st or top prospect.
This trade in a vacuum is good. The fact that it allows Walman to shift to his natural left side and drops Nurse to 3rd pairing is a massively valuable ripple effect that makes it a great trade
Don’t be surprised if the opposite happens, and it’s Nurse with Murphy and Walman with Emberson. The coaching staff has had blinders on with respect to Nurse’s play.
With Connor Murphy coming in, I think the coach will return to Ek-Bouch pair and rotate Murphy with Nurse or Walman and see who fits better as the 2nd pair D.
The odd LHD out then becomes the backbone of the 3rd defence pair alongside Emberson with Stasney becoming the #7 D.
Ek, Nurse, Walman – we must have one of the highest salaried LHD lineups in the league! Sure hope they start playing like it…
Walman’s NMC kicks in on July 1. Time to play him with Bouchard and see whether the Oilers have to trade him in June before the NMC kicks in.
Walman has a NMC on his existing contract.
Walman’s current expiring contract that he signed with Steve Yzerman had a 10 team NTC but there’s no guarantee that it is still in effect after two trades from DET to SJ and SJ to EDM.
The extension signed by Bowman in Oct. 2025 does have a NMC but it doesn’t kick in until the start of next season.
Puckpeida has Walman with a NMC for this season.
Capwages and Sportrac both show that he was signed by Steve Yzerman in Feb 2023 to the 3 year extension starting from the 2023-24 season with the 10 team NTC.
If he had an NMC, he should have had full control of his landing spot while he was with the Red Wings. I don’t think he would have picked the Sharks and their “down to the studs” rebuild as his preferred team.
Plus the $3.4M AAV, that indicates that he wasn’t a star player who had the leverage to ask for an NMC.
The MOU signed between the league and players association ensures that any NMC or NTC survive any trade.
How about Walman for Shane Wright?
Murphy played the least minutes of any Chicago defender, but anchored their best in league penalty kill. Well liked. Tough to play against. Big, right handed so a whole lot to like, but reasonable expectations because Chicago wasn’t playing him much. At 2.2M, Sounds good.
Counterpoint – slowest skater in the league, aging 3rd pairing D who can’t move the puck. He’s not bad at defending because he’s always defending.
Murphy can be paired up with either Nurse or Walman and protect the front of the crease when those guys go walkabout (which is basically every second shift). Both Walman and Nurse are good at puck retrievals and can skate the puck out of harms way. I suspect that we’ll see both of them paired up with Murphy, depending on which one has their game sorted on any given night.
The team desperately needed a stay-at-home type who can clear the crease and allow the goalies to see and track the puck better, and a PK anchor to free up Bouchard for more 5v5 play.
The acquisition cost was modest given the cap retention.
I just wish they had aimed higher and gone after Braden Schneider … but the acquisition cost may have been more than we could afford.
I didn’t like the play on ice but Im liking the plan so far. They had the break, they allowed vets to show what they can bring. It was unsuccessful, time to move some aside and bring in the youth. Samanski and Howard on the way to show what they can do.
The play on ice confirmed the need in regard to acquisition.
Bowman recognizes hell spend assets but one player cannot solve the overall isue.
Positive arrows.
And I will add the determination that Janmark is out for the season, which also brings clarity.
Spec says its a second round pick for Murphy and the Hawks retain half.
That’s a great deal – I think it needs to be done AFTER the Samanski/Howard recall, Jan LTIR placement and then sending Howard back down……
I like the sounds of that.
Seravelli says it’s done but trade call won’t be until later tonight. They need to officially send down Regula/Mang, recall Howard/Samanski, LTIR Jan and send down Howard first, I think.
Seravalli is saying it’s the 2028 2nd rounder too, two years away.
Basically a free player – that 2028 draft is so far away anything could happen between now and then.
And it’s not Ristolainen or Stanley, which would have been awful. And Samanski > Janmark is very positive.
…or OEL or Myers or another middling D with term
They’ll still have a 2RD problem when the season ends but Stan can fix that in the summer
Stan can *try* fix the #2RHD in the summer. We’ll have about $17M in cap space with UFAs in Roslovic, Kapanen, Lazar, Henrique, Mang, Connor Murphy and Connor Ingram and only Stastney going RFA.
Assuming we have pieces already on the roster to plug into the top 6 (McD, Drai, Nuge, Podz, Savoie, Howard/Samanski), and Ingram gets re-signed to a 2x$2M deal, that leaves ~$15 M for 5 bottom 6 forwards and a #2RHD. If all 5 bottom of the roster players get a $1M average, Stastney gets ~$1.5- $2.0M, that leaves about $7.5M to give to a RHD
They still have a 2RD problem. Murphy is a 3RD.
He’ll be playing with Nurse or Walman, call it whatever you want. And hopefully it allow them to reduce Nurse’s minutes
Perhaps Walman/Emberson can be effective and Nurse/Murphy can play 3rd pair minutes and PK
I’ve adjusted my expectations downward in the last 6 weeks – a modest deadline without any long term mistakes and regroup in the summer
Looks like a 2nd round pick for 50% retention. Wish it was less but oh well. Need him on the pk desperately
That doesn’t seem too bad to me for a big RS D that plays top 4 minutes and PKs well (at least on current team), with 50% retention, at the deadline. Might be more in the deal when it comes out
A second round pick in 2028 for a solid 2RD with 50% retention and you want cheaper – doesn’t get much cheaper I don’t think.
That depends
do you think he’s a 2RD?
His 5 on 5 TOI is down this season as the Hawks are elevating younger player but he’s generally been 17-18:30 5 on 5 TOI/G for many many years.
When Friedman tweets something like “Hearing talks are intensifying for Edmonton to acquire Connor Murphy from Chicago.”, it’s highly likely it happens in my opinion.
He’s a good d-man and will help – hopefully 50% retained and not Howard in the deal. Mang will need to go.
Spec now saying 2nd round pick, 50% retained
We got the Rickiest of all the Ricki D
Just need Mark Fayne now and the cup is ours.
All your Connors are belong to us.
*Not applicable if Clattenburg or Ingram are part of the return.*
Connor Bedard, come on down!
Obviously, we need to pick up Kyle Connor too.
Try Connor Murphy.
Hellebuyck while we’re at it. Lol
Wait, I’m now hearing that the guy in Nashville has now re-named himself to “The Connor Stamkos” and requested a trade to the “Con-Oilers”.
Then we will truly Connor the market on that name.
Garland…with one N
They got a guy who should be able to help the pk and protect a lead. Doesn’t need to play big minutes
There’s one factor overlooked in deciding how to spend the Oilers limited assets at this or any trade deadline. If you value time-on-ice I think it’s important to remind the viewer how many more minutes defensemen play than forwards. If the Oilers go get a 2RD they will play a ton. If they go get, say, a 3C it will be less and that’s even pretty unrealistic based on the rumoured costs of the Boone Jenners and Ryan O’Reillys. If they a bottom 6 winger they’ll hardly matter.
How big is this difference?
Darnell Nurse has played more minutes this year than Leon Draisaitl. Think about that for a second. A top 5 player on the planet has less time to impact the game than a player who some feel could be a realistic healthy scratch.
The Brett Kulak/Spencer Stastney spot in the lineup is at 1036 minutes. Ryan Nugent Hopkins is at 998. So this is replacement player cash having the same impact on a game as a star forward who plays first line, first PP and first PK.
Jake Walman has played in half the games and still has more minutes than Trent Frederic.
On a per game basis 6 of the top 10 Oilers in TOI per game are defensemen.
So if they can recreate the Ekholm or Walman trades these will ALWAYS have a much more material impact on on-ice performance.
So take for example the acquisition of Justin Faulk or Colton Parayko. Faulk has played the same amount of minutes this year as freaking Connor McDavid. 22:30/game.
So here’s the key. Faulk or Parayko will have a massive impact on this team’s performance but it will be one way or the other. If the dude can play the impact could be a game changer like Ekholm was;
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Hearing talks are intensifying for Edmonton to acquire Connor Murphy from Chicago.
Connor Murphy reportedly acquired from CHI. Details to follow…
$4.4M cap, 10 team NTC, UFA after this season. Gotta be a body going out
This is a very solid depth pickup. Just hope we didn’t spend a second round pick
From Dom’s piece linked earlier:
“While he may not deliver much offensively, Connor Murphy has long been a steady defensive presence. There hasn’t been a single season in Murphy’s career where his team has given up more chances with him on the ice. This year’s relative impact on expected goals against of minus-0.49 per 60 is a career-best mark.
Murphy’s projected plus-1.3 Defensive Rating is among the highest available.
The question with Murphy is whether he can still deliver that in a top-four role at 32. While he’s projected to be a fringe No. 4, that’s not how he’s been used on a bad Chicago Blackhawks team. That leaves some doubt about whether his ability can still scale up the lineup, but given his track record of doing so, Murphy feels like a worthy gamble for teams in need of a stopper.”
Better be an incredibly cheap deal.
He’s just plain not that good.
He’s a very good defensive d-man. Its tough being a d-man on bad teams.
It’s tough being a Dman on good teams. Just ask Darnell Nurse.
@SportsnetSpec
Connor Murphy isn’t going to pile up any points, but he’s 6-4, 212 lbs. – and he’s the first guy over the boards in Chicago on the NHL’s best PK unit this season.
A defensive Dman, which certainly can not hurt in Edmonton.
Presser with Bowman today:
Have no played defensively as a team – all of them, every position. Team puts themselves in bad positions and that needs to change – a mentality shift is needed to understand what a winning brand of hockey means. Need a better commitment to playing smarter hockey and not trying to make plays every shift.
The above is not going to change with magical new players but internally.
Asked about finding cap space: “I think we’ll be able to do some things” “It will be nice to bring in a couple of players”. “there is more from within and that’s how we’ll become a better team”
“We might add a d-man. We might add a forward. I don’t know at this point”.
Goaltending hasn’t been great but the team is putting the goalies in some really tough spots. Would like to see the goalies find some more consistency but its best for the team to put them in situations to find it, Goalies can certainly play better so not absolving them but the way they play as a team is primary.
Matty asked if they weren’t able to move Mang and he said no, the waivers were cap structuring. Confirmed that Howard/Samanski will be called up tomorrow and Janny on LTIR.
Matty asked if Nurse needed to be better and Stan wouldn’t single him out but put him in a large group that needs to be better – dial in, play a safer game.
Agreed that ideally, a right shot D would be better than a right but its not that simple.
He likes the way Samanski played prior to the Olympics and wants to see more. Big guy, lower risk, energy, pretty smart about not putting himself in bad positions (does not take a lot of risks). Would like to see him on the stretch run.
Continued to be impressed with Bouchard’s progression to be an elite all around d-man.
Dom at the Athletic ranks the D potentially available.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7076274/2026/03/02/nhl-trade-board-2026-deadline-defensemen-analytics/