How did it ever get this way? The Edmonton Oilers are now the second wild card team in the west, four points up on the San Jose Sharks who have three games in hand. The team is also four points out of first place, so there is promise as well as danger. How will this team respond to the challenge? If history holds, the club will spend enormous energy in getting into the postseason and go a long way. However, we must acknowledge the Bowman Oilers are not the Holland Oilers. I’m onside with adding youth. I’m not sure Bowman feels the same way, today. I think some of that youth may be headed out of town. Gird your loins.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0)
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0)
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1)
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record:
- Season Record: 29-24-8, 66 points in 61 games
I know the Oilers will be better this month than last, but is it enough? Don’t know. I’m seeing a lot of ‘win one, lose one’ in March, and my prediction says the record will be 36-30-9, 81 points in 75 games. What a mess. I would like to predict 10 wins this month, that would win the playoff berth and push for the title. The Oilers may accomplish 22 points in March, but I can’t see it from here.
This is from Puck IQ. Connor Murphy played very little versus elites (the numbers show why). He did have success (compared to his fellow ‘Hawks) versus the mid-level and soft parade. Sheltered minutes five-on-five, lots of PK time likely. I think the price was quite fair, and believe Chicago did their veteran blue a favour here. The second-round pick is in 2028, that’s one distant bell. The Blackhawks retained, from where I stand there was no extra charge for it. Perhaps I’m wrong.
I will tell you I think Stan Bowman should have aimed higher, but understand the options are not strong considering cap and lack of assets. If the goal is to get Darnell Nurse to the third pair, then this move does make some sense. Knoblauch can run Ekholm-Bouchard, Walman-Emberson and Nurse-Murphy with Spencer Stastney as the No. 7.
Will he? Knoblauch could move Walman up to the top pairing with Bouchard, put veterans Ekholm and Murphy together and then put Darnell Nurse with Ty Emberson. Nurse-Emberson own a 43 percent goal share in 144 minutes, but have surrendered just 1.66 GA-60 and that stands out. Walman-Bouchard have played just 25 minutes but are incredibly high event (3-2 goals, 79 percent expected goals). Small sample size alert, but the coach has to do something.
POSSIBLE LINEUPS
- RNH-McDavid-Hyman
- Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen
- Frederic-Roslovic-Savoie
- Samanski-Henrique-Lazar
- Walman-Bouchard
- Ekholm-Murphy
- Nurse-Emberson
That’s an earned shakeup and let’s see if this club can straighten up and fly right this evening. I hope we see plenty of Josh Samanski down the stretch.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll talk about the Murphy acquisition, the Samanski recall and the other rumours flying around the Oilers right now. It’s the roundtable, that means rage in the cage noon to 2pm on Sports 1440 and You Tube.
Knob said that Walman had a tweak and, with the other 5 d-men playing so well, they didn’t want to push him – I don’t believe him at all, I think that was just protectin the player in the media after being benched. Except, MAYBE, he is still not 100% and did tweak whatever is bothering him – if that’s the case, he needs to get healthy.
Coach said Lazar will be out a while – but then said at least a week, maybe more. Said they’d call up a forward but they don’t have the cap space to do that unless they move Mang (or other) out or place Lazar on LTIR – I see both – LTIR to call someone up and then Mang for acquisition cap space.
Summarizing!
Lafreniere was forbidden soup — and also went -3 — in a 4-1 loss. It wasn’t all bad though, as he won 10 of 14 draws (71.4%).
Listening to the scuttlebutt around the league, apparently LA is trying to pick up Laine to make an ill fated run at this year’s playoffs. Just watch Old Dutchy trade Byfield for Laine and MTL’s 2026 1st rounder before the Kings fall just short of the wildcard.
Treliving still thinks there’s a chance… so he’s sitting on his hands instead of auctioning all his pending Maple UFAs. If TOR keeps him one more season, they’ll be a lottery team by the time he’s fired in 2027. Couldn’t happen to a more deserving franchise…
We know 67% SC, WC, EC winning teams give up 6GA to 3 GA in 4 wins.
As everyone also knows my rover theory is about Off d abandoning Def side to chase off. = Yields high open SH% = high xGA.
You need sheltered high 0z FO% & low bench chg w/o puck units to crush 5×5 goal diff.
Bouchard ssn 62gm 5×5 7 G 26 A 33 P, 56 GA .90 5×5 GA/gm,
-23 is -.37/gm
Other 2 5×5, PK , PP Dprs can only allow .60/gm
Last 12gm 5×5 4G, 6A, 10 P, 17 GA 1.42 GA/gm, -7 -.58/gm
Other 2 5×5 prs, PK & PP D can only allow .08 GA/gm to have 33% chance of winning Championships.
I explained this in 07/08.
There is a reason Current VP Trans Alta Gen & Renew said to NA mgrs “ Do not lose him.”
Doing NOV Russia bid opened pkg saw Ghost image of ICBM (Accidently left in) on Tundra bug, calmly ( Around dads NASA, ESA, CIA world) walked up to P Sullivan Head NOV global said “ I am not going to quote this.”
= get Trained by worlds best & Apply it.
CYA!
1.50 GA or less. You cannot ignore it!
Last 33 SB 55% def allow 14.6 Pt against/gm.
I
realize talking off sells but it is lying to the fans!
Ricki!! Its good to hear from you! How are you doing, it feels I haven’t seen your analysis in a very long time!
Some good and some bad on the out of town scoreboard. Race for the playoffs is tightening up. The Oilers desperately need to tighten up their D coverage and win a few of these games in the upcoming 4 game gauntlet against some of the leagues best.
Hopefully Murphy paired up with Walman will help to settle him down. He needs Murphy more than Nurse does.
Why is 97 still killing penalties? Sure I know he ran some great numbers early but it’s starting to normalize. That Pp goal is on 97. As the puck goes to Nuge’s man he needs to rotate back to take away the cross seam pass but he went out too far and lopped his way back. It’s among the reasons why he shouldn’t PK. He’s ultra aggressive and thinking offense. Other reason; we can’t use the nuclear line after a PK. Other reason; he could get hurt blocking a shot. Other reason; he needs his minutes reduced and/or saved for PP and 5v5. Other reason; it would allow other players to be more involved. Other reason; Kapanen, Podkolzin, Samanksi and Lazar have all killed at various times.
May have been the injury to Lazar?
Good to get 2 points. That 3rd Ottawa goal was way too similar to Anaheim’s game winner a few nights ago…
I’ve complained about Nurse in the past but I have to give him props for playing a solid bounce back game. The penalty call on him was really weak and he made good passes all night.
Walman is really struggling. His bad pass behind Roslovic led directly to the 1st goal against.
I don’t like our PK tactics of aggressively challenging the point shots. I know they’re preaching aggressively attacking the puck at all times on the PK but we’re bleeding goals. I feel the triangle needs to stay more compact when the cross ice pass is made from one point to the other point. The second forward needs to delay for the 1st forward to recover back to the triangle so it takes away the royal road pass before the 2nd forward starts his attack.
On the 2nd goal against, McD and then Nuge chased the puck to the points. The point man moved it quickly down to Tkachuk on the half wall who zipped it across uncontested thru the royal road to Batherson who scored.
I agree. I think Nurse is a window (Cup) killer but I will acknowledge he was quite good tonight. The Spec effect?
Yeah, Nurse plays a good game once every 40 games when publicly challenged. Not gonna be enough.
Walman was terrible. Horrible pass and then coverage on the first goal. That GA was entirely on him. He was directly involved in 2 more GAs. I’m fine if Murphy takes Walman’s roster spot while Walman either gets healthy or figures out his game.
I disagree on the Nurse penalty. First he was indecisive, then he got beat in a foot race so he held and took out the legs of the Sens.
Normally one can be happy with a win. This result is analogous to putting lip stick on a pig….did anyone see anything to build on?
It’s always good to remember that no matter how badly the Oilers play, they can still win
Good point. Can you imagine if they can play in a system and harness a collective system of play. That would require coaching, as they (KK) said they had developed systemic changes over the Olympic break but the coaches obviously came back with the same old thing. I’d be fired if I said one thing and did another
Oilers really dominated that game at 5 on 5, again – they shoot themselves in the foot for goals against but the expected goals by period were 69%, 65%, 70%
Oilers go two points, Ducks about to lose in reg, Vegas lots in reg.
Yup, I do see!
Argh, I reluctantly agree. An astute and practical retort
Well, the pig ended up with a beauty mark tonight. We should be ok next game if Draisaitl has a repeat performance.
Right, because 5 points every game is totally repeatable.
That’s my point!
Never in doubt.
This team is sick in the head
Good,
Then they are a perfect reflection of us
The Fans
After every goal for, the Oilers should just hold hands and form a chain across their own blue line for 3 minutes…. I don’t have any better ideas but I can’t think of another way to prevent this team from playing like absolute garbage each and every time. Even after the GTG they had to let Ottawa walk in and cycle dangerously for a solid length of time…
This team is unbearable. Every win a miracle. Every loss a heartbreak.
Straight to the cup!
Go on social media and make fun of all the Cretans who commented on Tkachuk chirping Draisaitl with “Draisaitl is nothing without McDavid” – it’s very satisfying 🙂
McDavid now at 49 OT points (Draisaitl 47), 1 point back of Crosby for the all-time record.
Can’t say the big guns aren’t trying to drag this team back into playoff contention. It’s whether the coaching staff can figure out how to make it all click
The only thing better than an Oiler OT comeback win is doing it with Brady Tkachuk in the box. Ingram has had better nights on the stat line, but this should be a confidence builder for him and the team to shut the door the last half of the game and get the 2 points. Draisaitl with the hats even though it was an overturned hatty, RNH with the timely jump, Hyman and Bouchard clutch to salvage the game. This team!
That is not 10 points for Drai in the last 3 games.
Yeah it is
This is some high even hockey right now.
Cant say it’s not entertaining.
My goodness Bouchard is on one helluva run right now.
Globetrotter hockey
And the season is saved hopefully it’s the beginning of 7W in a row.
And that’s why you can’t trust moneypuck.
2 points just like they drew it up!
Never in doubt……
Plan the parade?
They have so many issues to work out.
BA-BA-BOOM BOUCHARD! 💥💣🚨
They badly needed that W. Being on Murphy and some competent defending
Five-point night for Drai.
Can’t let that Stutzle get uppity.
So much fünf!
Phew!
Whoot!
In OT I almost feel like if the Oilers don’t win the draw they should take their #1 line off the ice. Because they’re not great at puck retrieval.
They conserve their energy because they want to stay on all OT. But that just allows the other team endless possession time.
Agreed. I see them conserving energy in regular time while defending
I was worried the Oilers were going to stink out this game. Nice to see them come back. Defensive play hasn’t been great this game, but they’re giving enough for now.
Walman hasn’t played in the third – benched or hurt?
Hopefully the former. Man he’s sucked royally the last six weeks.
He’s been so poor that it’s additional by subtraction
Z4CHARY! 🚨🚨🚨🚨
Not ugh
Opposite of ugh
They just can’t get it done
Reverse jinx works!
Just checked in on the game and see 4 goals against on 19 shots….not good.
Can they keep the Sens from scoring one right back?
the delay picking up the hats may have helped the Oilers
*edit-Greig gets a 10 bell chance off the face off LoL
Oilers might be the only team in the league who needs to call a TO after they score, rather than the opposition.
2nd shift, the first line gets pinned in their own zone.
Nurse immediately lets a Sens player get a decent scoring chance.
Einz, zwei, Drai.
Apparently Nuge’s goal now?
The whole reason Jeff Jackson was hired was to put the team in a position to resign McDavid for 8 more years. That didn’t work out and he has been a complete and total failure in every move he has made. Why can’t this team hire competent management? Bowman is basically Chiapet 2.0. Talks a good game but slowly moves the team backwards with the moves that he makes. Need to clean the whole deck within 2 years or we are in for another DoD
It’s on the players; the talent is there. The will to dig in and play defense is not. Anything else is just a cop out.
Same as it ever was. The gulf between floor and ceiling on this team is like the Grand Canyon.
My only solace is that last year they looked terrible too. Then they went on a 12-2 run (IIRC) – in the playoffs! They know that only the second season matters.
But they gotta get there. And this year, they gotta finish at least third in the Pacific, so they don’t get obliterated by a fresh COL/DAL/MIN.
So much wrong, but I still see a team that’s lost in much of its system play. Not as bad as the swarm days but it seems this team has no idea what it’s supposed to be doing.
I think Gulucksen really missed behind the bench. Coaching staff has lost the plot. Bringing Coffey back hasn’t really changed much. D actually playing worse if anything. Stan better find some answers.
At the game.
97 is trying way too hard
Everyone else is disorganized. Zero evidence of a system
Who is running the show? Where’s the coach. Oh yah, he’s running 97 and 29 together again. Brilliant coaching move and never used before….and the Sens were ready for it. Who isn’t!
As a few of us were discussing on here today, “loading up” this season should just mean keeping McDavid and Nurse away from Drai and letting him do his thing with whoever
Flames getting kicked 6-1 by the Stars.
A Coach and a goalie tomorrow would make things interesting.
They’ve managed to break Ingram in record time.
They’ve broke 4 goalies in record time
The overwhelming problem is not the 4 goalies used by the Oilers.
Yes agreed as evidenced by breaking 4 different goalies
Do coaches get fired this late in the season? I realize LA just did, is it common?
Need our Dan Bylsma moment.
This 3rd period is a must.
Playing like this, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs. The oilers are forever outflanked by any team that plays heavy. This is embarrassing to watch
Everyone is waiting for the magic “trade” or “coaching change”. Ain’t happening this year. Look at their record. Might (should) make the playoffs, but then what???
Keep powder dry. Re group over the summer and go all in next year
With a new coach. Just joking.
No Panthers this year. The Oilers matchup better against the Lightning.
with the way they’re playing, the Oilers will be on the golf course with the Panthers in April
A better match up doesn’t make it a good match up. Regardless, the Oilers hardly look like a team that can make it to the Finals.
Yep, They could use a long off season
Dear Oilers: there’s a “YOU” in the word “URGENCY”.
Just sayin’
Umm….there’s a U, that’s for sure.
Terrible power play
The cycle for a low-high play is such a repetitive and boring part of the modern game. Looking for a bounce is basically relying on chance.
Maybe I would enjoy it more if a) the oilers weren’t so consistently susceptible to it and b) weren’t so poor at executing it themselves.
^^^ this. So much this.
On the last shot by Cozens Nurse was between the hash marks when he crossed the blue line
Playoff spot looks in jeopardy. Very poor team play. What happens if we miss? Have to think some type of management change. KK given a contract extension that hasn’t even started yet??? Firing him wouldn’t look good on Bowman. Fire Bowman and KK a lame duck for new GM. Tough being an Oilers fan right now….
I think I would fire everybody if they miss. JJ, Bowman, Knoblauch. Forensic audit time. It should not be possible to miss the playoffs with 3 (or even 2) top 10 scorers. Find the next Bill Zito.
I love Podz. Was that a Sens PP?