The Edmonton Oilers won a chaotic game against Ottawa Senators last night. Lots to discuss, including injuries (Jake Walman, Curtis Lazar), fantastic seasons (McDavid, Draisaitl but also Evan Bouchard) and Matt Savoie arriving as a real NHL player at a perfect time. In order to discuss these things, we must put aside the astonishing lack of structure this team currently exhibits. I guess changings things defensively mid-season is rarely done for a reason. Please read this.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- At home to: OTT, CAR (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-0
- On the road to: VEG, COL, DAL, STL (Expected 2-2-0)
- At home to: NAS, SJS, FLA, TBAY (Expected 2-1-1)
- On the road to: UTA, VEG (Expected 1-1-0)
- At home to: ANA, SEA (Expected 1-1-0)
- Expected Record: 7-6-1, 15 points in 14 games
- Actual Record: 1-0-0
- Season Record: 30-24-8, 68 points in 62 games
Try playing that game against the Carolina Hurricanes and you’ll be wearing your ass for a hat.
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman 11:07, 7-4 shots, 79X, 3-0 HDSC
- Savoie-Draisaitl-Roslovic 8:31, 8-3 shots, 2-1 goals, 89X, 4-0 HDSC
- Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman 3:22., 2-0 shots, 88X, 1-0 HDSC
- Podkolzin-Frederic-Samanski 3:01
The Gods hammered on the drum last night, led by Leon Draisaitl (2-3-5) and I’ll have the usual McDavid (0-2-2 with thrice HDSC). I was a little worried about McDavid after the open field tackle by Brady Tkachuk (that isn’t hockey, folks). Nuge and Hyman scored, Matt Savoie picked up an assist. He’s been pretty much a regular in the points column lately. In the past four games, Savoie has a 7.04 points-60 individual total and he’s at 1.42 points-60 for the season five-on-five. Nice. Not listed here, but Samanski-Podkolzin played six minutes together and delivered a 75 percent expected goal share. They were 4-1 on the Fenwicks, 2-1 on the HDSC. Interesting.
- Ekholm-Bouchard 12:15, 6-5 shots, 0-1 goals, 69X, 3-1 HDSC
- Nurse-Emberson 10:57, 6-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 85X, 2-1 HDSC
- Walman-Bouchard 3:52, 1-2 shots, 0-1 goals, 14X, 0-1 HDSC
- Stastney-Walman 3:45, 1-4 shots, 0-1 goals, 17X, 1-4 HDSC
- Nurse-Ekholm 3:27, 1-1 shots, 94X, 2-0 HDSC
They aren’t going to give Evan Bouchard the Norris this year or any other year. Bias exists and it creates blind spots. I recommend enjoying what the player brings, and it’s a lot. Edmonton has a 53 percent goal share five-on-five with him, 44 percent without Bouchard. Away from McDavid he’s 52 percent, McDavid away from Bouchard is 46 percent. Bouchard is a great player. I remember arguing on the Lowdown before his recent contract, suggesting he is worth $10+ million and getting major pushback. We are here. There are still angry voices, but that’s okay. Bouchard is a key player we get to enjoy watching for the next several years.
We talked yesterday on the Lowdown about how much Nurse would play, the consensus was 12 minutes. I argued the organization would play him more because they need him. Nurse played 20:37, partly due to the Walman injury but he also played well. I think the need to attach blame to a single individual has reached a fever pitch with Nurse, mostly because Stuart Skinner isn’t here anymore. Oilers may try to replace Nurse, maybe that is why Jake Walman got that deal, but Nurse is one of the men Knoblauch counts on. Time on ice doesn’t lie.
Connor Ingram won the game, stopping 15 of 18 (.833) at five-on-five and 17 of 21 (.810) overall. I suggest ignoring the goalie totals until Coffey has a chance to get these fellows straightened out.
Ike Howard is rolling again, I’d talk about a recall for him or Roby Jarventie in light of the Lazar injury but there’s a feeling that another trade is about to happen. Do. not. trade. Savoie!
On the Lowdown today, Kevin McCurdy is our feature guest and we’ll talk about the riveting game last night against the Senators and the loud noises to come before the deadline. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
How Connor Murphy’s size, grit and mean streak could impact the Edmonton Oilers
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7082753/2026/03/04/edmonton-oilers-connor-murphy-stats-roster/
When you look ar what brock nelson went for last year:
It’s not that much more really.
I wiukdn’t have included magpie as part of “the big deal”.
While late 1sr rounders are barely much more real value than 2nd rounders they have GM face save value come deadline.
I think there was a way you could get out of magpies for far less if they would have creatively retained to make him sellable. I think that would have been better move than back agai st wall deal needing to include him.
I need a center with salary retained and you have to take magpie is a terrible idea to start any negotiation.
That’s what I was thinking too. Realistically, in a better situation where he has a permanent spot in the top 9 he is probably a 2-2.5M player? Maybe they could have retained a bit. I wish they would’ve done it separately from the Dickinson deal
Oilers still have CAP room for Bobby McMann, if Bowman can get McMann this might be the best trade line deals any Oilers GM has had in a very long time.
It would fill almost all the holes the Oilers occurred from losing Foegele – Holloway – McLeod – Broberg.
Is Bowman done? Was on Puckpedia earlier, seen a blurb that if they sent Samanski and Dach to Bako, they’d still have 20 on roster and $2.5 or $2.75 million to play with. Still have the 2nd & 3rd picks in the 2026 draft.
Evan Rodrigues, come on down
I have to think this is all Parkatti and Bowman working together. This season now comes down to one thing. The coach’s willingness to become a hard match coach. And if we’re being honest, the superstars willingness to allow his coach to play matchups.
Because you can see the logic here.
Connor McDavid is now comfortably in the lead for most goals against on-ice at evens this year at 55. Yes he’s at 58 FOR but +3 at evens is not even in the ballpark of Nate’s +54 or Kuch’s +24. Even a guy like Clayton Keller is +19. Caufield is +18.
Leon’s ok at +11. We’ll see if he sticks with 22 and 28. There are worries defensively there too. He is trending closer to the first group since he lost Podz/Kapanen.
So I can see Bowman saying to Parkatti, go find me the best defensive centers in the league. Go find me the best defensive defensemen. Make a list.
McDavid is having an Art Ross season but is giving it all back on the other end. It’s time to find him some clean air but in order to do that you have to have a monster defensive 3rd line AND more importantly be willing to play them hard matchups against the leagues best.
According to JFresh Dickinson is a good player. 69% WAR. But with massive skews offensively and defensively. He’s a black hole offensively at 11% but he’s 97% defensively. Ironically he’s not that great at PK; under 50% the last three years so his value is at even strength.
An eerily similar player card to Connor Murphy. 65% WAR but with crazy skews. 25% offensively, 95% defensively and 50% PK.
Podkolzin 36/92 offense defense.
So this can work. A core trio of Dickinson, Podkolzin and Murphy being hard matched against the leagues best should allow McDavid and Bouchard to get cleaner, if less minutes.
Because if Knoblauch doesn’t use hard matchups we’ll continue to see McDavid score a ton and give it all back and this new 3rd line just skate around in circles against other teams bottom sixes grinding them to dust.
Thanks for this in depth outlook. I don’t think that KK is that coach. If he cannot adjust, who’s that coach next year? DeBoer?
Obviously you have looked into this further than I have but you lost me at “Bowman saying to Parkatti, go find me the best…’
Do you really believe that? And they just happened to all play for the Hawks? That is some cognitive dissonance.
Bowman. took over a perennial contender and rode them into the ground. He wouldn’t have been a gm anywhere without daddy. At least daddy was young enough to still advise when the was with the Hawks.
Maybe Parkatti has been helping out with the Podz, Emberson etc. transactions. that would make sense.
This is absolutely do or die and with how old and slow this team has predictably become I have no choice but to predict die.
Bowman was part of the management team that built that perennial contender.
Bowman was the GM that re-tooled the teams that won cups 3 and 5 years after Tallon was gone.
Bowman had his team win the division 7 years after Tallon was gone.
Those that don’t give Bowman any credit for the Hawks 3 cups are propagating a narrative.
It’s not about my belief. I don’t have a clue how good he is. But Micah’s analysis shows they are the 97th and 95th percentile defensively so assuming Parkatti’s formulas show the same thing you can see the logic. Go make a list of 10 centers and right D in the top 5% of defensive players.
But the GM would immediately cross out 90% of that list as unavailable or unaffordable.
I’m not knocking your research just saying that if they were ranked lower Bowman would still spend like a drunken sailor. As he’s shown repeatedly. The best captain of a slow sinking ship you can get. Just like our last two gms.
I don’t think it’s nearly this black and white.
Mcdavid and his linemates can in fact play better defensively. We’ve seen them do that and do it very well. They’ve been loose all on their own.
I think you’re bang on about the optionality that Dickinson gives though.
He allows you to hard match, he allows you to load McDrai and still hard match, he’s cover if someone gets sticked in the ribs or with a sore hand on faceoffs. He’s extra cover in a 6v5, he’s a PK slot that maybe backs off Nuge’s time.
Its a very versatile pickup and the numbers LT and others have posted about his TOI against Elites with less than Elite linemates is bonkers.
Gotta see how he adapts into our Chaos but this has the makings of an Ekholm level pickup. Might just be Right player, right skills, right time.
This is excellent analysis. I am confident Dickinson will add more value than what Henrique gave us 2 years ago because he is a much better fit and we aren’t trading for name value.
At the end of the day, we gave up questionably too much for Dickinson but just like buying a care, the little things add up: 50% retention + $2.5M of cap relief x 2 (b/c you can bury the first 1.15) + Dach who is probably conservatively worth a 3rd round pick a la Emberson/Stastny + it is a 2027 1st still valued most likely in the mid 20s. All of that makes it in the range of reasonable to take Dickinson from a reasonable 3rd round value to a 2027 1st.
If we traded for Schenn or Schwartz or Eberle then there is probably less head scratching at the value given up (the fit could be questioned) because they all have name value. Dickinson does not.
Hockey is obviously all about outscoring the other team. Extreme defecse should be just as valuable as extreme offence. The fact Dickinson can saw off elites at an elite level gives you a huge match up advantage, especially when our top 6 are so good at scoring and not so good at defence. I do think this is a very targeted add that actually matches what the Oilers really need.
Two problems and I’ll keep it brief.
First, defensive metrics are highly volatile and dependent on teammates, systems, and coaching/deployment.
As an aside, looked the trade form a Blackhawk’s blog. First description of Dickinson was “a guy who’s battled injuries…”
Secondly, defensive metrics are less impactful than offensive ones. In other words, players who are elite defensively, but can’t score don’t have anywhere the net value of players that can produce offense well. No matter how good you are defensively, if all you do is defend, eventually you get score on.
You need bottom six guys that can skate, forecheck, create pressure and drive play.
I was bugging my Flames buddy about their “not a rebuild” rebuild and we were talking about the Flames holding 8 picks in the 1st three rounds.
Spitballing we were thinking if Dallas wants to swap out pending 26 yr old RFA Jason Robertson ($7.75M cap), they could grab Kadri (50% retained), Coleman and one of those 2nd rounders. Calgary could start their rebuild with a solid shooter to flank Huberdeau.
Gotta say, I was initially surprised by all the negativity regarding the Dickenson/Dach trade. But this season has been a huge disappointment right from the outset, so I get it … everything is amplified, and I’m just as guilty as everyone else here of adding to that.
For me, a former goalie, my issue with this team has always been about their play in their own end. The PK went from historically great to almost worst in the league in under 2 years. It cost the team a Cup last year. They’ve regressed even further during this season, unable to hold any kind of lead for more than a few minutes, while in the process overplaying the top guys because the supporting cast were found wanting. Someone here recently opined that “the Oilers are the only team in the league that needs to take a timeout after scoring a goal.” The glimmer triplets would get a goal and then give it right back … KK had no one else that he could trust to go out and shut down the other team’s offensive stars for a shift or two afterwards.
The Oilers have three aces in McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard, with three Kings in RNH, Hyman and Ekholm, who are on team friendly deals … the problem is that those three kings don’t have too many seasons left where they will be able to perform at that level. So it’s time to go all in.
They got two new goalies, but the results have been the same. Management acknowledged what we’ve all been saying all season long … that the problem with this team was not about how much offence they could generate, but rather their ability to play lock down defence when it was required. The bottom 6 guys are the most vanilla bottom 6 we’ve seen in years.
So they got that lockdown RHD in Murphy that many had identified as a target of interest … with 50% retention.
We got 50% retention on Dickenson … who by the way, a lot of us wanted Holland to go after 2 seasons ago, when he was having a career year on offence. Since then, the player has become an elite PKer, which has value on the scoreboard but not in the boxcars. That costs an asset – let’s say a 2nd round pick for the sake of argument.
Winning the PK/PP minutes matters … less so in the playoffs, but it still matters. And this team has dug itself a hole deep enough that making the playoffs is in doubt. Dickenson and Murphy are two of the best PKers in the league. Targets identified and acquired. They focused on the right side of the puck – the players they got are not offensive showmen, but rather defensive savants … its not sexy, but these are they kinds of players that help you win in the NHL. Greasy players, playing for their next contract and to stay in the league and keep getting their per diem … not wet under the ears rookies, who still dream of being PP studs. Not current PP studs who would not be able to crack PP1 on the Oilers. They got the guys that the Hawks sacrifice to the best in the league to give Connor Bedard some clean air. Now that guy is coming to Edmonton to given Connor McDavid the same service.
We’ve been wanting management to go after former high picks who haven’t quite popped yet … guys like Podkolzin, who cost us a 4th round pick. Well Colton Dach is a very similar bet. He’s getting 4th line minutes and hitting everything in sight. He’s got some untapped offence and 2nd round pedigree. People wanted AJ Greer … this is better … he’s a young AJ Greer that we are going to have team control over. The 4th line minutes are going to be much more interesting now, by comparison to the total vanilla that they’ve been putting out there all season.
And we got rid of Mangiapane’s bad deal … yes Bowman signed him … he has to own that … he went after a name player and got suckered. We all did too.The guy had one good year, and has lived off that reputation ever since; got his bag and stopped being the player that he was for the Flames. It happens … players say all the right platitudes off the ice, but when it comes time to go into a corner against a guy half a foot taller than you and 30 lbs heavier … well, you flinch … you’ve gotten paid beyond the wildest dreams of the kid who was drafted in the 6th round … and you’re like “nah, I’m good. I want to be able to have a life without pain after my career is done.”
But the cost of getting rid of that deal was in the range of a 2nd to 3rd round pick.
A 2nd, 3rd and 4th round pick buys you a mid-to-late 1st round pick.
And they kept all of their best prospects from a very shallow pool – we are still going to get to see if Howard, Samanski, Hutson and Akey can become regular NHLers next season.
We’ll see if it all comes together in time to save the season … but I like where the emphasis is on … preventing goals against.
Go Oilers!
Thank you.
Awesome
You don’t win at defending by gathering forwards who can’t score. They have almost nothing to do with winning hockey games.
Forwards who can’t score can still defend. The Oilers don’t need more goals.
THANK YOU best post I have read since this trade i understand the hate but needed to up my spirits this morning and this post did it i myself am optimistic and am stoked to see/hope for some good team defensive play it has to start somewhere steep price yes of course but I love our oilers…..lassss gooo…cheers
The whole point of moving out Mangiapane with an asset was to gain cap space to add a substantial player. This is so basic that a teenager learning the concept through video games would figure it out.
And yet…here we are…
Remember when they traded for Chris Pronger? And extended his contract at an absurdly reasonable rate? And Lowe wasn’t even a very good GM…
Ken Holland was by far the best Oilers GM since Kevin Lowe at the 2006 trade deadline. Let that sink in.
How is LA looking?
Your comment is irrelevant. My post is about Oilers GMs.
But if you want to use Holland in LA, you just proved my point. That guy making those awful moves in LA has been better than what Bowman has delivered thus far.
Do we know yet? I would wait for playoffs to decide, LA likely won’t see them
Will the Oilers get to the Stanley Cup final this year under Stan’s management?
They did it twice with Holland.
But again, your comment is irrelevant to my original post speaking about Oilers GMs.
You’re moving the goalposts like the resident troll. Don’t do that.
I don’t agree about moving goalposts. LA was a playoff team last season without having the wear and tear of long playoffs courtesy of the Oilers. They do have injuries now, but were not doing well pre Olympics. The Oilers should make the playoffs, LA might but chances are slim
Also, insults don’t prove points
No insult intended. Just asking you to focus on my original post which has nothing to do with LA.
Understood, but we don’t agree, which is fine
Has it? Bowman is a series up on Holland with a completely restocked farm system to boot, a restocked farm system while spending draft picks in the same way Holland did.
Podkolzin, Howard, Samanski, Jarventie, Poulin, Dach, Emberson, Stastney, Carfagna, Hutson, Leppenan, Marjala, Regula.. that’s a tremendous amount of high quality youthful bets that Holland couldn’t sniff.
Stan needs to rebuild the pro scouting department from scratch and approach July 1st far better but other then that he’s outclassing Holland.
He has done a good job signing prospects. And podkolzin, Emberson and Kapanen were good pickups. i would also say none of this matters if it does not translate into wins this year and next year. He has made all these great moves why is the team the worst it’s been in 10 years? And it would have been nice if he could have cashed in one of those prospects to avoid giving up a first today.
Holland is better the chia. But on Bowman to be continued but trading that 1st today doesn’t sit right with me. Too much for too little imo. I hope im proved wrong but we will see here for the last 20 games.
Raiding the leagues best PKs for their two most important pieces is smart. (Dickinson appears to play a goofy amount of his time against Elites.)
Finding properly aged players at reasonable cap hits for the exact roles you need is smart.
Getting rid of whiney has beens is also smart.
In the New Age anything after a 15th pick is basically worthless. Go shopping in all the other pro leagues vs burning 5 years of your time on a kid just to have him play 3-4RW.
We’re a much more balanced team on paper.
If the Oilers wanted to get the Blackhawks level of PK success this year, they should have traded the 1st and the 2nd for the Blackhawks goalie.
Goalies don’t make the PP, not true. They have to to do their jobs bur their SV% is a result not the cause. See Oilers last playoffs and this season
This. Peeps seem to be missing the details. I can’t believe the cost was so low. LT was thinking one of the top prospects, it was magic beans and holes shored up pretty well
If Bowman can find one Samanski a year, that would be huge.
While things may not work out, please consider that this is the closest to Sather we have seen since
Minor assets out – yes a late 1st protected 12 and 2nd have value – rids Mangi’s cap and gets another guy that can play well defensively at 50% retention and a young large local 23 YO player that has upside and can play C
Unless there is more unreported as of now, this is brilliant to me. I don’t know how Stan can even make these deals, it’s been so long. 3 NHL players for the cost of a late 1st and 2nd and a guy they didn’t want with another year, and getting retention on 2
Filling the actual needs with whats available and not losing a good prospect, the only thing is the C is not RS, but Lazar should be back for playoffs. Honestly, wow, compared to years of bad
It may not work out, but Oiler and Lowetide fans should be very happy. Amazing work
I think you’re going to be in the huge minority on this one.
I know, that’s why I wrote it
In equity terms that I have talked about before, this is a significant organizational gain. As were the great signings that cost nothing but money
What Bowman has added in a very short time is really significant and absolutely top level management
I completely agree with this part. I really like the assets bowman brought in for free or close.(before this trade)
I just really didn’t like the mang signing at the time and it turned out worse than I expected.
Overall I like allot of bowman’s work.
Oiler players didn’t like playing against him as reported. It was a low cost 5v5 good bet which was needed, gone now
And let’s acknowledge in season, talk about moving things that didn’t work out fast
How do you feel about the Jarry trade?
Seemed reasonable. Both had consistency issues, I think Jarry has better technique. May not turn out, not a bad exchange for me given both needed a change
Well, it didn’t turn out, and odds are neither will this one.
Yet to be determined. Let’s see when the team decides to hunker down
As per the Jarry trade, the problem is that we viewed goaltending as the problem. It’s always been defense. Our goalies will look better when our defense is better.
He gave up a first round pick to get out of a contract he signed less than a year ago. This is not top level management
Young Dach may end up causing middle aged men to slap bellies and wave shirts over their heads in a drunken delight.
Know something?
Yes, local players always work out in Alberta
Matt is doing ok. Messier wasn’t bad, or Fuhr
Local boys: Kulak did well.
A lot of mental gymnastics need to be done to think of this as brilliant management.
A lot needs to be done to see reasoned choices as bad, as well
I agree with you.
They need to massively cut down on GA. PK is a great place to start.
Dickenson is shy offensively but Henrique has been running at 0.58 EV points/60 this season. Dickinson scores at almost twice that rate. He is an upgrade at 3C.
If Samanski runs with the 3C job, great. Dickenson can still contribute from 4C and he’ll contribute more than a Lazar type.
Late first round picks are not so meaningful IMO. Remember this guy?
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=226598
I don’t.
Somehow this random guy is out scoring Trent Frederic in far fewer games and minutes.
It’s why Stan gets the big bucks.
Remember Connor Brown? Frederic is getting his game back and is 40 lbs heavier and fights
Let me know when Frederic is all the way back. I’ll wait.
Getting better costs. Every team that has won a Cup recently has filled gaps. The Oilers have tried to do that and I think have made reasonable bets at lower cost
Heres how I view it: our team is completely irresponsible defensively So we go and get defensively conscious players. I have no idea who these guys are, but the premise makes sense to me.
Also I am not worried about the picks. Stan has done fine finding young guys.
I think I like the trades.
This late first round pick was one of the pieces that got us Matthias Ekholm
You keep saying “late first round picks”, completely disregarding Edmonton’s current spot in the standings (their 2026 first sits at 14th overall by points percentage today).
I’m not nearly as negative as many people seem to be but I wouldn’t call it amazing. He paid full value, and while I think it’s close to fair, it hurts to lose another first.
Without attaching Mangiapane it probably costs a second for Dickinson straight up, Dach is added to help get the deal closer to fair. The Oilers clearly want a player type like Dach and have tried with Jones, who isn’t good enough, and Clattenburg, who isn’t ready.
I’m normally not a huge fan of the Dickinson player type outside of a pure fourth line role but his defensive numbers are so good and this team is so bad at defense I can see the logic in it for this team.
It would be nice if one of the new additions worked out and signed a short term team friendly extension to take lessen the pain of the acquisition cost – hopefully they’ll have a long playoff run to show their worth.
I do wish Oilers GMs wouldn’t acquire so many former players, it makes it seem like they’re either not looking hard enough or not trusting their staff to identify players.
Part of the problem with trading a 1st is the opportunity costs. That draft capital is utilized on far better players than Dickinson. Even if he is elite defensively.
Sorry. I don’t give a crap about the tiny retention on Dickinson’s 1/4 season or Mangiapane. He’s a RENTAL and a bottom 6 forward. People are getting 4-5 years of Parayko and Weegar for similar acquisition.
What is the point of building a prospect pool if you are going to hold on to them all and then repeatedly trade away 1st and 2nd round picks for bottom 1/2 roster players on rentals? And eventually lose the prospects because you’re blocking their chance to make the team? How many of the current AHL prospects are going to make it? 1-2, 3 if we’re lucky? Some will be lost after their best before date rather than cashed in when they have higher potential. It’s an unquestionably bad trade.
Exactly. First round picks are for top 6 forwards and top 4d that are young enough you can sign them to a long term deal and older top line players.
not for depth defensive specialists.
Late 1sr rounders are not no brainer top 6 forwards. They aren’t at the top of the draft anymore
I don’t see the acquisition costs as similiar at all. Parayko went for a 1st and a player who went in the top ten under a year ago. Weegar went for THREE second round picks and two other assets. They are paying way more for them, and Parayko and Weegar also take up way more cap space.
I dislike the trade, but I don’t think those other trades are comparable.
Both of those players are Canadian Olympic caliber and at very reasonable prices for multiple years. You could burn through 5 years of 1st round picks and never get them. Those other “assets” are questionable. If you bring in a top 6 winger who can bring it, you can push players like RNH down, people forget. I’d rather plug the hole from depth forwards than bring in a guy that is good at treading water. I’ll reserve judgment but the cost is incredibly jarring.
We may not even make the effin playoffs and then not only are neither of these guys going to want to come back, then SJ is going to enjoy using a top 14 pick
I think the value, in a vacuum, is okay. They got out of a bad contract, they filled a need with what appears to be a very good defensive player, and they got a coat controlled younger player who can be a part of the next wave of Oilers players alongside Savoie, Howard, Hutson, Akey and Samanski. Is that okay for what should be 23-32 overall in 2027? I think so.
But this GM is responsible for signing the bad contract they had to dump in the first place. If they had never signed Mangiapane, they can probably get Dickinson and Dach for their 2026 2nd and 4th instead.
But the main reason I dislike this deal is I don’t think they need a third liner like Dickinson as badly as they need an impact winger for the top six, and I wanted them to spend the 2027 first on the lattet. Edmonton has not had too many pure rentals in recent years, opting for guys with term (Ekholm, Walman) or signing their pure rentals to extensions (Henrique, Frederic). They probably re-sign at least one of and probably both of Murphy and Dickinson. And I don’t think they need those players when they A) have several prospects/young players emerging who will be cheap on their initial contracts and B) really could use another impact forward. And unless Tuch wants to sign at a discount here, the way you get an impact forward is a package that would probably need the first round pick they just gave up. Could they get an impact player at the draft, say, Forsberg out of Nashville, for their 2027 first, Howard and Hutson? We might never know, but I don’t think loading up for the 2026 playoff run is the best bet when they are having trouble playing team defense.
I think this team can contend for as long as McDavid and Draisaitl continue to be elite level players, but I don’t think asset management is a strength of their management group. Considering what a big part of the job that is, I have concerns about the ability of Bowman and company to get this franchise to the championship we should expect from the core of this team.
I think Savoie is the impact winger acquisition. His breakout is real and spectacular. Let the man play.
Savoie is probably the player I am most afraid they will deal, and then immediately regret doing so. But he is in the category of cost-controlled assets that let you pay other guys in the interim. Howard isn’t far behind for me.
I’ve let it sink in for a while.
But the reality is:
We have traded a first and a second rounder…
…for Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson.
That’s really pretty insane.
I guess we got Chicago Stan.
who would have thought we’d be begging to get Holland back
You must be lost, cause it was also Dach and no Mangi on the books next season.
Only seeing 2 of the 4 positives is insane.
I see. Colton Dach and getting rid of a second year of Mangiapane (and filling his cap space this year anyway) when the cap is going to zoom next year makes it worth it. Like, sure, I hope you’re right.
But in the here and now, we just traded high end assets for a lot less than you’d normally get for them.
Dach (who has some of the worst fancy stats in the league this year in his turned-23-year-old season, but who knows) and losing Mangiapane = making up the balance between a decent 3RD/PK d-man and a bottom six faceoff-meh but reasonably okay C for a first and second?
Like, okay. Hope it works out for all of us. Not sure it will.
I don’t really care about the pick at this point to be honest. It would have been nice to see a better player come back for it, but it’s gone now. A potential late first rounder in 2027 maybe impacts the NHL in 2030. This team is now.
i see the trade as a response to the Lazar injury (Dickerson) and using the first to clear cap space to get a better player next year. It’s a bit of a next year deal overall.
Not a ton of faith that Stan can use that cap space effectively however.
I think they needed more value from trading that 2027 first. Maybe they find a way to free up some more cap space and add Tuch in the offseason, but I don’t necessarily see the path to them adding one more impact piece right now.
If you need to make a trade for a first round pick because Lazar is injured, you should probably resign
Trusting Stan Chiarelli at this point to use cap space wisely is a pipe dream.
Colton Dach is actually a young Patrick Maroon, 6’4 220lb left winger that is immediately leading the team in hits with 189 playing depth minutes all while being 23.
Dach/McDavid/Hyman.. Forechecking maniacs.
Roslovic/Drai/Savoie.. Greasy, brainy RDS line.
Podz/Nuge/Kapanen.. Temu Forechecking maniacs
Samanski/Davidson/Frederic(Henrique).. Not a threat to score but hopefully quiet ice.
Samanski/Roslovic/Davidson can all play the center position after a powerplay with a Pod/Kap or Ros/Sav winger combo.
The 1st round pick sucks, but if Dach can blossom then history will be serving crow.
LOL can’t see Dach way up there playing on the top line. He probably gets sent to the Condors initially.
Why not, he hits everything, he takes draws, he’s a giant. He’s going to become an instant fan favorite if he gets to play. He’s a loud mouth and anyone that touches 97 even gently while Dach is on the ice will be summoned to answer for their actions.
This team just got bigger and nastier, some sorely missing ingredients. After watching Anahiem play with a Florida Spice to their game, Dach is a perfect answer.
I asked Stan to find a young Maroon and that crazy sob may have hit it out of the park.
Dach is 23. He’s not a prospect with upside any more. He’s a tweener.
Sometimes players don’t become impact players until their late twenties. He might be a tweener now, but he has upside. Remains to be seen if he ever is more than he is now, but it’s certainly possible.
He turned 23, 8 weeks ago, he has plenty of upside.
He’s in his ELC leading the team he left and the team he’s going to in hits.
He’s younger then when the Oilers brought in the no upside Maroon.
He put up 26pts in 33 games as a 21yr old in the AHL then finished in the NHL and has been in it since.
He’s a prospect with plenty of upside.
275 hits in 78 NHL games with 16pts to go with, he’s already a young star as far as physical forwards go.
Probably could have traded Mang in the summer to a bottom team that needs players and contracts at less of a cost. Bowman is not a good GM and never has been. Tallon built the Hawks and Bowman left them in complete shambles when all was said and done
Someone needs to tell Stan Chiarelli that the idea is to be on the right side of a 3 for 1 trade.
When you give up the three assets for 1, you get Eckholm.
When you get three assets for 1, you get a black hole 3C, 50% retained, a young tweener the coach won’t play.
Get it straight Pete!! I mean Stan.
3 for 1:
We get:
1. to get rid of mangiapane
2. A defensive conscience.
3. A young player the coach might not play
They get
1st
2. Mangiapane/ boat anchor
Is it really as bad as your saying? I am hopeful.
Huh. Interesting to see how it all plays out. We’ve gotten bigger, slower and more defensively reliable over the last couple of days. Which for a team that has been playing like the oilers have of late, is… interesting.
I certainly don’t mind that we held on to Savoie.
I predict a 4×4 extension for Dickinson and a 5×4 for Murphy.
It’s this year’s version of the Frederic trade.
Dach is this year’s Max Jones. The 2nd increased to 1st because we’re also dumping mangiapane. Dickinson is this year’s Frederic.
Frederic signed for 4% of the cap and 8 years. But Dickinson is a year older and the cap is going up. So Dickinson gets 4.2 x 7 years.
I’m kidding. Or at least, I hope I’m kidding.
It actually unbelievable that such a poorly run organization has made back to back finals. It’s a testament to how good McDraiBouch are.
Brutal trade. No other way to put it.
Dickinson is another bottom six forward who can’t piss a drop offensively. Pushes down Henrique who is another bottom six forward who couldn’t piss a drop offensively.
Or if you don’t like that comparable, is another Trent Frederic who had his best, outlier year a couple years ago and now can’t piss a drop offensively.
All that for a 1st?
What hole did Stan fill?
Brutal.
“What hole did Stan fill?”
Well if he comes out to the press conference wearing his ass as a hat we know the answer.
Stan went out and got a couple players that can immediately make a difference defensively, both 50% retained and got rid of Mangiapane’s contract. As well as a young big bodied forward with some potential.
It’s not so much what Stan gave up, but more about how he’s improved the team moving forward.
I actually like bowman I was just making myself laugh. Heehee.
He got three assets. A third line centre, a cost controlled bottom six player, and 3.6 in cap space for this year and crucially for this summer too.
It’s not terrible value for what SHOULD be a late first round pick, but I dislike it not because they got bad value, but because I think what they should have used that first round pick for was part of a big package in the offseason for an impact player.
That is a very optimistic view of who Dickinson and Dach are at current stages of both their careers.
On Dach, I would grant that. But he’s also young enough that he could improve. Dickinson seems like a consensus elite level defensive player, someone who can anchor a shutdown line. He played against top competition for a bad team and didn’t get destroyed. I think they got a good player. I simply disagree about the strategy of shopping for mid level players with limited assets.
A frightening concept that Bowman adheres to: he doesn’t like to give up good assets for strict rentals. I worry about the new contracts these guys are going to get.
Save judgement until you’ve seen them play 20 games? Or maybe even one?
I have seen him play. Plenty.
And do all players play the same for every different team they’re on? No.
I think they will be good – Im worried about Stan feeling like he needs to resign them because he traded a 1st and 2nd and signing them for too much/too long with NMCs. That’s exactly what happened with Frederic (and to a lesser extent Walman)
I just don’t get why we don’t play Nuge at 3C and Howard in the Top 9. Then you don’t even need Dickinson.
Something like this:
Howard-McD-Hyman
Savoie-Drai-Roslovic
Podz-Nuge-Kapanen
Frederic-Lazar/Samanski-Henrique
Each of the top three lines has an elite playmaker, a shooter, and a mucker (an elite one in Hyman’s case). And that’s even with just burying Mangiapane.
Gregor had a good point, that Nuge plays PP and PK, which leads to too many mins with 3rd line role duty. Him, Hyman, Drai and McD can rest after PP without icing your 4th line.
That is a good point. Thanks for passing that on.
Is Nuge necessarily playing more as 3C than 1LW, though? Or is the point that deployment of the third line is key immediately after a PP or PK more the issue? I’m genuinely wondering, I was kind of confused by Gregor’s comment.
Summarizing!
Soup for both!
Lewandowski’s 16th goal of the season broke a 2-2 tie in the 3rd as the Blades went on to win 3-2. He was named 2nd star for his efforts.
Nicholl picked up an assist.
If Dach can show to be a young Maroon, sweet.
Otherwise, gross.
Apart from the great discussion regarding actual hockey play, my second favourite part of this blog is reading the overreactions to bad losses, poor play and wild trades. It genuinely makes me feel better.
I have never read a comment so true in my life.
I’m wondering about this shutdown third line idea with the Oilers.
Will he actually be playing the elites while with the Oilers?
McDrai don’t get sheltered
Is Dickinson going to play vs MacKinnon and Eichel or will McDrai continue to do that?
And if McDrai continue to do that will Dickinson waste his defensive prowess shutting down other teams 3rd lines while providing his very little offence.
I usually like a little offence from my third line in the playoffs
It will be very interesting to see how coach deploys Dickinson
Dickinson has played up and down the Chicago lineup and put up decent counting numbers in Bedard’s rookie year when there weren’t many warm bodies and he got top six oxygen (a major career outlier). I can’t imagine Knoblauch deploying any combination of our bottom six consistently against elites. If there’s something like a shut down line, it might work as a fourth line if we ever get back to rolling lines. Long way away from Nuge moving to 3C. Not sure this move suggests that the GM even sees that as a positive option.
To the extent these moves make sense, it’s in a more settled environment where system play allows rolling four lines and not obsessing over matchups. I guess? that’s what Bowman is trying to accomplish. We’ve seen it work okay with since departed personnel in the long runs.
Right now though it’s an endless supply of chaos and loading up the nuclear option.
Will this change anything? Dunno. Like to believe. Not convinced.
Very astute comments.
yes, it will be interesting to watch the how KK deploys him.
A lot of negativity and it’s understandable.
The Oilers logo should be of someone shooting their own foot.
I feel if Mangi was kept and no defensive center brought in, the Oil may not even make the playoffs. That first round pick was spent to save face and hopefully save themselves a spot at the dance.
The only way this trade turns into a positive, is this creates a line for matchups against toughs (freddy-dick-henry), leaving McD and Drai to feast a little bit more.
Bah! The jury is out but it doesn’t look great, even with Mangi off the books for next year.
The Oilers logo should be of someone shooting their own foot.
*slow clap*
I was about to say that I’d be ashamed to show my face at work in the morning if I were Stan. But then I remember he works for the Oilers.
Why is do not trade a first round picks for a depth player that hard to understand.
Holy frack
I just wanted a modest little deadline and regroup in the summer
I would have rather just run Mangiapane and the kids out there and keep the first round pick
Why didn’t we just keep Mangi until next year and dumped him at the next deadline for cheap. This is the stupidest waste of a first round pick.
Because Connor wants to win.
I sincerely wish Connor McDavid all the best winning a Cup somewhere after he gets to leave this steaming pile of shit.
I wonder if stan will find a way to get less than we got for pronger
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Food for thought on Flames/Mammoths swap:
Standings entering tonight, 2nd round picks:
NYR – 35th overall
UTA – 47th overall
OTT – 49th overall
in totality are roughly worth equivalent of the 19th overall pick.
I don’t like the value sent out but this trade is similar to Murphy in that it’s better value for the Oilers than what the trade is in a vacuum (which is not great).
But for the Oilers, who gift McDrai with a hugely disproportionate amount of o-zone starts, it means the reverse for the bottom 6. So they went out a got perhaps the best C to eat up these d-zone starts against elites and come out even. That does have huge value
Zone starts don’t matter. Most players earn their zone starts.
How do you earn something if it doesn’t matter?
Zone starts don’t make a material difference on players shot/goal metrics.
I think extreme cases, such as how aggressively the Oilers deploy their zone starts & how much Dickinson starts in d-zone vs elites, can buck the rule
I didn’t think it mattered all that much. On Puck IQ they have a feature where you can look at players results in different zone start situations and the differences in shot/goal metrics are significant. Im not 100% sure Im reading the data correctly though and it seems like an unfinished feature because the current year is missing and maybe last year is too.
If the oilers needed an old slow fourth line defensively responsible center that penalty kills and is good at faceoffs we have one. Henrique.
If the oilers need a big fast young third line centre we have one. Samanski.
If Dickinson pushes out Henrique, ok.
But that is a dear price to pay.
Frederic Dickinson Henrique is going to be a helluva 4th line.
Most overpriced 4th line in the league (Lucic singlehandedly set the record for the Flamew)
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Roslovic-Draisaitl-Savoie
Podkolzin-Dickinson-Kapanen
Frederic-Henrique-Dach
Lazar
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Emberson
Walman-Murphy
The bottom six and bottom 4 defense are black holes offensively. There’s one way this works. Knoblauch needs to treat that 3rd line and pairing like the 2000s Ducks with Pahlsson, Rob Niedermeyer and Travis Moen. Massive hard matches against the leagues best so that 97 (and 29) doesn’t continue his historically bad defensive season.
But will 97/29 allow the coach to yank them when the matchup dictates?
If not the you’re going to be left with the bottom 6 being parked halfway through any game we’re behind in and playing 6-12 minutes.
Vegas overcomes a 3-1 deficit to beat the Wings 4-3 in OT.
Up next…Islanders @ Ducks and Blues @ Seattle
What kind of an idiot spends a first round pick on Eric Belanger? This trade is horrible
The sign Mangi to trading him along with a 1st in exchange for an equaling mediocre depth veteran is Chia level asset management.
Stan is turning out to be very Chia grade GM
He is Chia with an analytics team that he only sometimes listens to IMO
Just gross.🤮
So, in the last 12 months, starting with the Walman trade (March 06, 2025), we’ve parted with I think two first round picks and three second round picks.
The return for that (ignoring the various throw ins and other assets out) has been Walman (re-upped at 7×7, we’ll see), Frederic (re-upped at Idon’tevenwanttothinkaboutitbutwe’llsee x 8), Jarry (two more potential boat anchor years left at $5.375m), Murphy, some months of Dickinson.
That doesn’t seem like a whole lot of value. I mean, I hope I’m wrong. It doesn’t seem like world class GM-ing.
Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
The SJSharks now own Edmonton’s 2026 first-round pick unprotected to complete the Jake Walman trade:
It had previously been top-12 protected, unless Edmonton moved its 2027 1st, which is now going to Chicago (top-12 protected) in the Jason Dickinson deal.
Edmonton’s 2026 pick is currently 14th overall. That’s a helluva price to pay to get out of a contract Bowman signed just a few months ago.
I have a rule in fantasy pools. I don’t pick players from my favorite team. I get too attached.
I’d suggest that Stan Bowman consider adopting that rule.
I’m not even sure Dickinson is a full time player on a Cup contender. His xG% the last 4 years is 42,45,46 and 40%. Hopeful he can play 3C but this is a player with no upside that cant possibly cover the first rounder cost.
Very best case scenario is that he’s an ace PK guy who is closer to a 4C than a 3C.
Curtis Lazar +? Older Josh Samanski?
I see him as a fourth line center/ pk. Not sure the coach will agree. I hope he doesn’t block Samanski…. Janmark got overplayed up the line up. As does Henrique. Now likely Dickinson.
To play devils advocate, It wasn’t Dickinson alone that cost the first. We also got Chicago to take Maniapane’s contract and eat half of Dickinson cap hit for this year. Plus got Dach as a flyer. These three extras cost more than Dickinson imo. Not saying I love the deal, but I’ll give it a chance. Much better than Hollands trade for Duncan Keith, and much better than the Frederic deal last year
But Frederic didn’t cost a 1st.
So, something like
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Savoie-Drai-Roslovic
Podkolzin-Dickinson-Kapanen
Samanski-Henrique-Frederic
And Lazar as an option for playoffs, as well as Howard and the other minor league guys.
A better team than what they were a couple days ago.
I like the trade.
Dickenson as a shutdown C means creating mismatches with 97 and 29.
Mangiapane had no future role here. Prospects are untouched.
Really curious to see how much better the PK gets.
I usually try to find the silver lining in a bad Oilers trade (and there have been so so many), but besides the fact that a late 1st may never turn into anything of great value, it could’ve been spent in a trade for a much better player than what we got.
But yeah, fills a position of need I guess.
Yup if you’re going to spend a first; aim higher!!
But I don’t see Dickinson filling a position of need. 3C is still a black hole. Have fun getting caved Mr. Dickinson.
It is such a shame our owner cares more about hanging out with famous hockey men than winning.
Yikes. A first round pick for Dickinson?
I have seen enough Stan. He is who we thought he was.
I think the first was to rid mangs contract. But still yikes.
First, the Oilers paid in full in FA for Mangiapane’s services.
Now, the Oilers pay in full to ditch him.
That is horrid asset management.
Ya two wrongs don’t make a right.
It’s a late first and Dickenson fills a big hole.
What hole? The Oilers have a great selection of old no-offence fourth liners.
But not ones who a) can play in their own end, and b) are strong PKers.
Well, we agree that Dickinson will be playing a lot in his own end.
Henrique is exactly that.
Plays in his own zone.
Strong PKer.
Nothing else.
You have to remember Dickinson is 50% retained plus Colton Dach and they get out of the Mangiapane contract.
Wonder what the price was to get rid of mang? Maybe a second? Then what was the price for Dickinson? A third? Then retention? A fourth. I’m sure bowman did his homework. But a it’s a tough look.
Time will tell.
Interesting… looks like Button had these trades on his radar a couple weeks ago. Unfortunately we didn’t “shy away” from the price as mentioned…
https://nhltradetalk.com/former-gm-suggests-the-oilers-pursue-a-multi-player-trade-with-blackhawks/
I will fully admit I don’t recall ever seeing Dach play but I will note that a few months ago when I was playing around on NST to see if maybe Trent Frederic was the worst forward in the league I kept running across Colton Dach.
Bowman may have acquired the two worst forwards (regulars) in the NHL the last two deadlines.
1.69xGF per 60 is second last in the NHL.
This guy is an absolute black hole.
We thought Mangiapane was a ghost and he’s 2.35.
Jason Dickinson needs to be Patrice Bergeron for this to make sense.
It’s crazy. He makes Belanger look like Mario.
The cost for Dach was nothing. I’m ok with him as a throw in. Maybe he works out.
Unfortunately it cost a lot to rectify a huge unavoidable mistake with the mang signing.
So then you’re ok paying a 1st for Dickinson? The guy has 11 points at evens this season. Podkolzin has 26 and we paid a 3rd.
No. Not at all. I think the first was required to get rid of mang. Which I still am not good with. I’d rather the trade didn’t happen.
Dach = Max Jones 2.0
That’s probably a fair comparison. If dach had cost near nothing I like compiling those types hoping something turns out like Podz or Kappy. It saves management from mang like signings… hopefully.