I worried Peter Chiarelli was going to trade Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Nuge always got sick in the late fall and had some performance lows November-December. My fear was Chiarelli would see a small center who looked frail and send him away for a coke machine. As it turned out, he kept RNH but sent everything else of value down the line.
At this year’s deadline, I have been gravely concerned with Stan Bowman’s lack of assets. I kept reading that the Oilers were going to make a bigger deal, and the assets available to make that move included Matt Savoie, Ike Howard and the 2027 first-round pick. If I’m honest, not even sure Howard would qualify, he seems fairly one-dimensional so far in his pro career. That dimension has real value, but he’s early days and teams making deadline deals for substantial pieces want plug-and-play.
Jason Dickinson can help the Oilers this spring. He plays against the other team’s best often, wins 52 percent of his five-on-five faceoffs and can kill penalties. He is 1.07 points-60 at five-on-five, that’s low but he should get good wingers and maybe he can pump it up a little. Dickinson is at .49 goals-60, that’s a number you can live with on the third line. He starts in the defensive zone far more than offensive or neutral, and (as above) his rel numbers are good. I like the acquisition, leaving aside the loss of the 2027 draft pick (the retention bites the Oilers in the ass every season).
One thing I did want to mention is his success on a line with Ryan Donato and Ilya Mikheyev. In 187 minutes together, the trio posted an amazing 68 percent goal share. You know luck is involved, but the line had a 55 percent expected share. Man oh man, if Dickinson could center an Oilers third line that delivered 55 percent actual goal share, it would be grand.
Colton Dach is either a sleeping giant or a swing and a miss. I’m reading he is a slow boat, but NHL Edge has his max skating speed in the 70th percentile. He is big (6.04, 218) and young (23) but I’m not sure he’s going to play in the NHL for the Oilers this season.
He is at .74 points-60 in over 550 minutes this season, and is not close to a point-per-game in the AHL this season with the Rockford IceHogs. He has scored 1.33 points-60 when playing with Nick Foligno. His most common line is Foligno-Slaggert and they own a 50 percent goal share (40 expected) in 90 minutes. It’s tough to get a read on this player, but he is waiver exempt so could be heading for Bakersfield. He is listed as a center but has a 39 percent faceoff percentage, hard to believe that’s going to be his NHL role.
What does he do that is above average? He hits people. His 20.05 hits-60 five-on-five ranks No. 5 among all NHL forwards with 500+ minutes this season.
On the Lowdown today, Bagged Milk will be our guest and we’ll talk Oilers trades and ask if they’re done. We’ll also spend the two hours discussing lines and pairings and update you on what is happening at the rink. We’ll also be joined by Michael Walters, Edmonton Riverhawks Community Foundation Chair at 12:40. We’re on Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
I’m sorry.we can blame the GM, the players, bad luck or the ice conditions, but I believe that it all comes down to coaching. Knob and his team have failed to find an answer to how the Panthers outplayed them in last year’s final and the rest of the coaches in the NHL are copying the tactics. They have seen enough video of 97 and 29 doing the same things when they are together on the ice so that nuclear option is as good as dead. 97’s brilliant rushes up the ice are failing because his line mates are too slow to support him. Shoot the puck at the net for God’s sake and quit trying to set up highlight reel plays.
What worked when Knob got the job is no longer working. Time for anew coach to figure it out?
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Sources say Wild are acquiring Bobby Brink from Flyers
David Jiricek is heading to Philadelphia
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Trade details:
To Sabres
LD Logan Stanley
RD Luke Schenn
To Jets
2027 BUF 2nd Round Pick
LD Jacob Bryson
LW Isak Rosén
The Sabres will be Luke Schenn’s 10th career team (TOR, PHI, LA, ARI, ANA, VAN, TB, NSH, WPG & BUF).
Only Mike Sillinger has played for more teams in NHL history (12).#Sabrehood pic.twitter.com/3DJijQ1Bj1
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) March 6, 2026
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Conor Garland is being traded to Columbus
Two picks in return: a second being the highest
Thomas Drance
@ThomasDrance
The second-round pick coming back to Vancouver for Garland is Columbus pick in 2028.
Canucks will have multiple second-round picks in three consecutive seasons as a result of this deal.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
John Carlson is being traded to Anaheim
Conditional 1st in either 2026 or 27 & a 2027 thid
Best usa defenseman of all time likely when he’s done. future hall of famer John carlson to ducks.
John Carlson has had a great career, and he’s a good add for the Ducks.
But come on … “best USA defensemen of all time” … “future hall of famer”.
Not even close on the first statement … Brian Leetch is still hands down the best American D-man of all time.
And Carlson is a border-line HoFer … he’ll probably finish his career with 800 points. Stanley Cup champion.
But no major awards; only once was a runner up for the Norris.
His career overlapped with Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, Victor Hedman, Erik Karlsson, Shea Webber, and Zdeno Chara, Brett Burns and Kris Letang … all those guys are in or will get in before Carlson.
The Even Strength King: Phil Housley leads in raw even-strength production, but Mark Howe is the most impressive relative to his total. Nearly 65% of Howe’s points came at even strength, and he is the only player on this list with a significant number of short-handed points (38), proving he was a threat in every single on-ice situation.
The PP Architect: Mathieu Schneider and Brian Leetch have the closest gaps between their EV and PP totals. They were the quintessential “Power Play Quarterbacks” of their era, often seeing more than 5 minutes of man-advantage time per game.
The Modern Balance: John Carlson has a very healthy split. His 489 even-strength points are higher than most of the retired legends above him, suggesting that while he’s a weapon on the power play, he is a massive driver of offense during 5-on-5 play.
lol, no. He would caddy for Brian Leetch in the summer.
The Verdict on Adjusted Efficiency
The “True” Offensive King: Even after adjusting for his high-scoring era, Mark Howe remains in a league of his own. His 0.480 Adj. EV PPG is nearly 15% higher than his closest competitor. This means that relative to his peers, he was the most productive 5-on-5 American defenseman in history.
Leetch vs. Housley: In raw stats, Housley leads Leetch in even strength points (711 vs 534). However, because Leetch played in a much lower-scoring era, the gap narrows significantly in adjusted terms. Leetch actually takes the lead in adjusted efficiency (0.424 vs 0.390).
The Modern Context: John Carlson holds his own remarkably well. An adjusted rate of 0.379 puts him right in the mix with the 80s legends, proving that his offensive production isn’t just a byproduct of a specific era’s style.
Mark howe appears to be my correct answer for greatest 200 ft american defemsrman of all time.
Like the mario lemieux of usa defenseman.
But seriously carlson’s career has been absolutely incredible.
Phil housley -52
Brian leetch +25.
Hits and blocked aren’t tracked gor long enough. Chelios is incredible if you just factor penalty minutes for physical But if you knick howe for under 1000 gp:
Carlson like he comes in well in every category whereas leetch is best rover of all time.
For me:
He’s the american equivalent of lidstrom.
It will be interesting to see what happens the chychurun if he doesn’t sign back with caps (if playing next season)
I’ll still take Leetch. Mark has Canadian hockey blood running through him as well.
Adjusted for team and Carlson played on good, offensively gifted teams his whole career. Not so for Leetch.
Just to finish:
Only partial data for toi solit by gsme stat since 1998.
Luvkily it catches most of main group snapshot of their usage
1. Phil housley
20:41: 14:38 EV, 5:58 PP, 0:05 SH
1495 GP/1,232 points
2. Brian Leetch
26:10: 18:22 EV, 5:57 PP, 1:51 SH
1205 GP/1028 points
3. Chris Chelios
23:14: 16:55 EV, 2:56 PP, 3:23 SH
1651 GP/948 points
4. Gary Suter
23:28: 15:40 EV, 5:55 PP, 1:53 SH
1,145 GP/844 points
5. John Carlson
23:35: 18:18 EV, 3:34 PP, 1:43 SH
1,143 GP/777 points
He is 21st highest scoring defenseman of all time (it’s equally absurd at least as much as my statement whomever suggested not hall of fame clearly).
8 points behind letang
10 points behind hedman
14 points behind Josi
-> josi has like 150 less GP he is modern era best for sure.
I won’t defend against leetch just believe a more complete defenseman less power play merchant.
But regardless:
Carslon >>>> dickenson/murphy/dach
Their combined positive impact.
Of all this years deadline deals -> good chance amaheim is clear winner of value added compared to assets spent.
One of the greatest of all time dmen who is still crushing it was available. The biggest driving factor in the success of chychurun if you actually were watching how well they play together the guy who could gold plate any top 4 D if added just went for a steal (relative to what avalanche just paid for 16 point center especially)
Even having to pay more for retention this is the guy who fixes fsr fsr more of edmontons problems in best way posdible if added.
Triage 2 wounds vs actually fully treating most critical injury.
Leetch was more than that. Always in picture in a good way. Agree on everything else. Bad gming.
I understand some don’t like/trust +/-, but for me it paints a pretty accurate picture of the black holes on this team this year. I like how they’ve cleared the bottom 2. Now to clear 3 of the next 4. One goes away EOY. Good soldier, just too old to keep up anymore. The others are a lot harder, maybe some hope with offseason conversations.
But my big question is about between now and then. They seem to now have enough, better, options, but is there enough stomach (and cap) to sit 2 on any given night, barring injury/necessity?
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Hearing the Rangers will trade Sam Carrick to Buffalo
Every team can use some Stouffville
Summarizing!
Soup for both!
Wakely scored his 7th of the year.
Fischer had a helper.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Senators have traded David Perron to Red Wings for a conditional 4th round pick.
I would take Perron on my team he has a knack of scoring when the going gets tough.
They’ve missed him every game since he left. Just like the missed Arnott until Leon finally took that mantle and went above and beyond.
Malkin tried to chop Dahlin’s head off:
https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/s/coG6QCkR9O
You weren’t kidding
“When you mess with the bull, you’ll get the horns”
That should be 5-10 he might get 2
Anaheim Ducks
@AnaheimDucks
SIGNED: Ryan Poehling has inked a four-year extension with us!
Pierre LeBrun
@PierreVLeBrun
$3.75M AAV x 4 years
I still want to know why we didn’t trade Mangiapane for Warren Foegele. Both would benefit from a change of scenery. Similar contracts, similar stats. Probably could have done it almost straight-up or with only a mild sweetener.
Listen to Bob talking to Stan
I am by no means an analytics expert nor do I claim to be. I do not have a law degree or any experience managing a professional sports team salary cap or drafting & offering out player contracts. I do watch a fair bit of hockey and follow the Oilers closely, likely have spent way too much of my life following them. I’ve also played and coached numerous sports.
Preaching to the choir here but JJ and Bowman were horrific hires. The Jarry trade is just pure incompetence. The Frederic and Mangiapane contracts were grotesque.
Hindsight is 20-20 but lets go back to June 30th 2024. Don’t trade McCelod and you still have a 3rd line center with speed and kills penalties. Let Foegle walk or dont, but Arvidsson and Skinner were bad signings. The wooden spike through the heart was not getting Holloway and Broberg done, although Broberg likely wanted out (before the PO run anyways). These guys all lost the SCF together, they now had more insight of what it took to win that last game, instead you try to re-tool, but end up blowing it up.
Im not sure how much petrol 97 & 29 have left in the tank after the last 4 years PO runs and 4 nations and Olympics and considering how much Knoblauch plays them.
Its been pointed out many times on this site and on twitter etc, how on earth no GM could bring in a GOOD goalie which is also a huge black hole on this franchise.
Im still hoping for the best but my expectations have been brought down to earth significantly this year.
Yes, I believed all of this at the time of hiring and feeling vindicated in those beliefs is the most anti climatic feeling I’ve ever had. Garbage.
I think the oilers have enough non physical, middle 6 forwards who don’t produce.
Honestly, the way the ‘legend of Warren Fogele’ continues to grow is just astounding.
WF got owned when the chips were down. Also not reliable defensively. He’s got the physical tools, looks like a player, sometimes is
Because the Oilers do not need a winger, a winger under contract for next year.
The Oilers don’t want that cap commitment for next season.
LA got a 2nd and a swap of 3rd round draft picks for Foegele. Compare that to the negative return we got for Mangiapane.
The Kings got a 2nd round pick for Foegele. Oilers had to give up the equivalent of a 2nd/3rd to get rid of Mangiapane. So I don’t think their values were that close.
Where are all the “Blockbuster” trades. oh wait, very few playoff teams have Cap Space …..
Many playoff teams have plenty of cap space.
Tomorrow
By the way, who is starting in net tomorrow? After Ingram stopping 17 of 21 my guess is back to Jarry.
Need to get Jarry going play him until he loses.
Play him until he wins?
And then play him until he loses.
Yep he’s not doing any favours for Bowman at the moment. Hopefully he gets locked and loaded for the stretch drive.
Its time to get Jarry a game.
Watching oilers fanatic paterick showed an X post of someone so confident the oilers do another trade the X post offered to buy tickets to a game if a trade doesn’t happen.
Time will tell less then 24 hrs
Thats Klima’s Lid, oil country’s newest top insider
Klima is legit!
And a super nice guy too
I think he’s gonna buy tickets…
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
Small note on Dach to #LetsGoOilers. Even though he has performance bonuses in his contract, he’s missed earning them. As a result, he doesn’t take up any of their LTIR Performance Bonus Pool.
That means even if Howard/Samanski/Savoie + Dach on roster at same time, their perf bonuses do not use up additional cap space.
A consequence of the Dickenson trade is that the Oilers 2026 1st round pick currently owned by the San Jose Sharks is now unprotected.
If the Oilers miss the playoffs, Bowman won’t care, because he will be out of a job, but the probability is not zero that the Oilers will miss the playoffs. It is small, but not zero.
Of course, the pick would also be subject to the draft lottery.
The Oilers are currently in 18th place in the overall league standings and 20th by points percentage.
The Sharks have an added incentive to finish ahead of the Oilers in the standings.
This was posted already. It is crappy if so.
Your posts seem to be getting crankier.
The pick isn’t going to be McKenna or Stenberg or Verhoeff even if the Sharks win the lottery. Can’t move up more than 10 spots in the draft.
There are franchise type D from 4-10.
The Oilers currently have the 13th worst record based on points percentage. If they win the lottery, it moves up to 3rd. That absolutely will be one of McKenna or Stenberg or Verhoeff.
It isn’t possible to control everything. This is where making the best decision in the moment is the difference. Things are fluid
Talking to Bob Stan said to do things differently than they did would have cost more picks. They still retain all prospects and a 1st or 2nd in the next 4 drafts. Those are the best ones. And they have an excess of NHL ready players so assets may come back if they don’t use them all. But I think they could, probably won’t
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Stars are sending a 3rd round pick to Smashville in exchange for Michael Bunting.
Another HH favourite who was supposed to be a better get than Hyman.
First sensible trade this year. (OK, second, after Connor Murphy.)
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Sources confirm Darren Dreger report LA Kings are sending Warren Foegele to the Senators pending trade call.
LA is getting a pick in return and the two teams are also swapping picks.
Kenny doesn’t even want WF
According to Friedge’s mini blog he believes Parayko wasn’t the only trade vetoed by St Loo NTC’s.
Was that the whopper that never was? Schenn, Parayko, Binner, Thomas, Kyrou?
I’d bet Tulsky tried to get Thomas.
I wonder if the Oilers sent down Samanski today. Players have to be on the AHL roster today in order to be eligible for the AHL playoffs. There is an exception to the rule requiring an AHL game played prior to recall for this – can do it via paper.
Crazy productive threads today – Stan’s moves generating lots of convos, and after sifting through the comments my reactions are a little more balanced (tho I remain pessimistic on Oilers medium and short ten asset management.
Thing is: Even the comments which don’t mention it explicitly seem to be circling the notion of multiple misfits between player personnel and the coach.
Stan. Knob. A cup and all is forgiven.
But this has _gotta_ be KK’s final at bat.
Final or Green Weenie.
One common theme with the GM and Coach’s post trade comments is bringing in players that play a specific “role”. I just hope the blender doesn’t send mix messages of what their actual “role” is. I’m also looking at you Frederic.
Yeah that’s why I do like Dickinson and Murphy their roles are very defined and Knob will stick to them and should have confidence in them. Most of the year it felt like we were trying to have three scoring lines but they never scored and got scored on a lot. Dickinson’s job will be dzone draws and shutdown minutes and try to break even. They will have an identity. Easier for Knoblauch to deploy them in the dzone than Henrique which isn’t really his strength anymore.
Sounds like Stan is done and will explore options till the deadline but this is likely it for moves.
My hums remain undinged.
Just listened to the coach on his thoughts for the PK pairings:
Henrique-Savoie
Nuge-McDavid
Dickinson-Kapanen
Am I missing something here? Why would he still want McDavid out there after finally getting a responsible defensive minded center who excels on the PK?
Would it not make more sense with:
Dickinson-Nuge
Henrique-Savoie
Every coach seems to think that Connor and Bouch don’t get tired. They do, and they would be better playing more fresh with more jump. It will matter if they go deep. I think it was Pronger that mentioned Bouch rests on the ice when they play him too much
I think that we will have a new coach next season unless there is a certain parade in Edmonton this June. I for one would welcome that move.
The PK should be a hell of a lot better it’s definitely been costing us points in the standings. Frederic had more pep in his step when Clattenburg had his back. I believe with additions of Murphy-Dickerson-Dach who will take the load of Frederic and we start seeing more and more of Boston Frederic.
It does suck being the only guy for that.
With K.K being very passive and then him feeding Frederic to Olivier was nasty in my opinion. That it not the way to get a guy going it has to be organic. The Coach lost me on that one and I’m old school. What he did to Frederic must be a new school move because I can’t even see Keenan pulling that stunt maybe Holland’s buddy Babcock.
Clattenburg, Dach, Frederic.
That would be an interesting, crap disturbing line for next year.
It’s too bad Clattenburg got injured he was playing well and smart. He definitely brought in an element we were missing with giving the opposition something to think of instead of Leon-Connor. Clattenburg has value Bowman already knows this hence he brings in the cavalry in Dickerson-Dach-Murphy add Frederic-Podkolzin and poof we aren’t the cream-puffs on the block anymore.
I’m not a fan of old school thug hockey. However I’d rather that than a bunch of vanilla 4 liners.
Totally understand that, don’t get me wrong I’m not advocating for UFC on ice but a 4th line that can go out and pester/plaster the opposition is a good thing.
Bowman drafted Dach and signed Murphy in Chicago
Yup.
They all do this.
It is one of the many signs that they are not the best people available to be GMs. Unfortunately, those individuals work in other professions where merit weighs in much greater than other factors and where the compensation is usually much higher.
Maybe. The Chaykas were a bust. I don’t think Dubas is that great either. Stats only inform so much, the best GMs know hockey, hockey players, and how to build a balanced group with the right drive. Coming from outside it would be stats driven, hasn’t worked for Carolina
I’m not making a stats-guy argument.
I’m speaking of people who know how to make strong decisions.
You could be a neck-deep hockey guy, or simply employ a whole ton of them and know what to extract.
But the Oilers for example are a multi-billion dollar company. They do not have multi-billion dollar company management.
Dubas knocked it out of the park with the Jarry trade (and spinoffs).
Dubas seems to be doing very well in Pittsburgh. Off the top of my head signed Brazeau for 1.5M on pace for like 60 points. Mantha for 2M or so also on pace be or 60+ points. Drafted Kindel. Got rid of the Jarry contract. Chinakyov trade. Retooling while still a top 10 team right now.
Tulsky has a great team every year but need a superstar and can’t get it done in playoffs. I think you need a combination of people that know analytics and the cap really well while also having some hockey people that know the types of players that win you games in playoffs.
Karlsson like Tavares means that they don’t have a realistic shot at the Cup
Which is the only point
Watching Bruce Curlock’s video clips of Dach, his skating and body reminds me a little of Frederic. Big butt. Often kind of straight up. A little lumbering, a little slow get off, but with a little more jump a little more youthful energy.
He’s not a semi truck, he can turn and switch up his body position
Kulak looked good in PIT after a slow start. Different player than Murphy but honestly how much of a difference is there between both of them right now?
Oilers essentially traded:
Stu
Kulak
2029 2nd
2028 2nd
for
Jarry
Murphy
Meanwhile, PIT turns Jarry into:
Stu
2029 2nd (Oil)
2028 2nd (Col)
Samuel Girard
With Jarry performing at sub-Stu levels in his 12 starts this season (plus being older, injury prone, and on the books for another two years), PIT is looking like they came out of this well. Even if Murphy is a marginal Kulak upgrade, that’s a steep price to pay for two second round picks.
I still think the Oilers blew it by not adding a goalie at some point last season.
Or claiming DiPietro or one of the other good AHL guys at the beginning of the year. I think some combination of Skinner/Ingram/Dipietro/Pickard would have been good. But they didn’t have much space unfortunately.
I do think Murphy on the right side is comparable Kulak though. A good fit.
With the caveat that Kulak is (was?) a burner and Murph is not.
Yeah they’re not comparable in terms of style and certainly Murphy seems like a better fit on the PK, but I think he means it in terms of where he fits on the roster/what minutes he plays
Murphy is a better RHD than Kulak . Much better fit .
Yeah for me it was the not pivot either in offseason or waiver for younger potential prebaked free pickup.
Like either pickard does or doesn’t clear. Have ingram and another in.
Worse case you end up sticking with pickard coming back up and skinner maybe but you can shufflein season trying to find cheaper free solution.
Pickard off small playoff sample size just wasn’t enough to holy grail him in place.
I mean, how many SCF X2 teams just off their goalies? Picks was value and always seemed to win. Not impossible that he sees playoff action again this year.
Better options were available only in those brief moments when our tandem seemed to be looking up.
Looks bad now, for sure, but it was sort of understandable at the time.
I would take all of the moves together
Stu
Kulak
Mangiapane
1st
2nd
2nd
for
Jarry
Murphy
Dickinson
Dach
Poulin
2×50% retentions
Goalies are a wash, Stu wouldn’t have a better SV% on the Oilers the way they have been playing. Woodley says Jarry has a positive goals saved above expected
So two struggling at the time (which lowered their value) NHL players and some picks (that will be taken later in the draft where players take a long time to arrive, if they do) for 2 NHL players who are playing well, a rookie, and another big player with 1st round pedigree
I see it as adding depth where it was lacking, addressing defensive play, and adding size and toughness
There was cost effective goalies to be had last Summer. I think Bowman bought into the weight loss with improved lateral movement Stu and his agent were selling him. As for Pickard that steady and frankly unbelievable run he had adding with the love the players had for Calvin clouded his vision.
Dubas has some shortcomings, but the man can build a bottom six from free agent scraps on the cheap.
Meanwhile everyone on twitter was saying it was all Dustin Schwartz’ fault haha
For anyone concerned about the acquisition cost of Dickinson, consider the following information using the picks drafted from #15-47 overall (goalies were excluded):
2020 Draft (now 23-24 year olds and should be firmly established NHLers)
Average GP is 126.8 out of a max of 444 (2020-2021 being a 56 game season and assuming 60 GP for this season).Average total points is 51.2Number of players with 80+ GP is 18Teams were 56.25% “successful” in drafting (using 80+ GP as drafting a successful player)Of the 18 “successful” players, 12 have achieved 0.40 PPG or better for forwards or 0.25 PPG or better for defencemen.1 goalie was drafted in this range (Drew Commesso)
2021 Draft
Average GP is 53.9 out of a max of 388 (assuming 60 GP this season)Average total points is 22.3Number of players with 80+ GP is 9Teams were 29.03% “successful” in drafting (using 80+ GP as drafting a successful player)Of the 9 “successful” players, 6 have achieved 0.40 PPG or better for forwards or 0.25 PPG or better for defensemen2 goalies were drafted in this range (Sebastian Cossa and Jesper Wallstedt)
2022 Draft
Average GP is 25.0 out of a max of 306 (assuming 60 GP this season)Average total points is 7.7Number of players with 80+ GP is 1Teams were 3.13% successful in drafting (using 80+ GP as drafting a successful player)4 players has a career PPG or better of 0.40 for forwards or 0.25 for defencemen (Seamus Casey has only played 16 games so far)Several players from this range look to be on track to be successful NHL players1 goalie was drafted in this range (Topias Leinonen)
A player picked in this range, which is the range of the Oilers 1st round pick, is not a sure impactful player by any means. Yes, the future value of a 1st rounder has a sufficiently high value that it can often net a good offensive or two-way player, but Dickinson’s defensive metrics are strong, and a good defensive player should not be looked down upon, especially when filling a massive need.
Other considerations are the cost to get out of Mangiapane’s contract, getting Dach who also fills a lineup need (4th line energy, big body with toughness and skill, youth, likely unmet ceiling), having a more balanced lineup, and adding leadership and a quality person.
Sure draft picks are lottery tickets to some extent, I don’t think anyone disputes that.
1) When they hit they give you a valuable contributor on a value contract (which the oilers desperately need), and even a 1/30 chance at snagging someone like Brock Faber in the 2nd round is probably more valuable than 30-45 games of Frederic or Dickinson.
2) You have a finite amount, trading a 2029 2nd today means we can’t trade it tomorrow (and who knows, maybe this time next year the team will look more like a contender)
3) Convincing someone else to take your self-inflicted problem off of your hands drives up the acquisition cost, turning a 2nd into a 1st, etc., and there’s a lot of pain/frustration when you’re bleeding assets unnecessarily to dig yourself out of a hole you dug yourself.
4) Looking at averages throws off the math quite a bit because you have a lot of bimodal outcomes – that are pretty far away from the average. A lot of guys who never make a it to the show, and a decent number of the guys who “hit” have numbers above the averages.
5) Good organizations/teams do not bleed assets like this every year without consequence. There’s an unsustainability to it that smacks of desperation, and it reinforces that the brain trust (above + including the GM) are not the best people for the job.
It’s not the actual value it’s percieved deadline trade value.
I’d argue it far too often outatrips actual value on a 25 th pick overall in terms of salvaging seller GM’s reputations.
Like an extra level lottery odds over a 649 jackpot perception.
I agree regarding the likelihood of those late 1sts turning out.
They are overvalued. It’s because they are overvalued that they have value.
I have no problem trading away the pick considering the team we have. My initial disappointment was in the player obtained for the overvalued pick. (I know there was other stuff) But now we are seeing the costs of similar and worse players and well, maybe that’s just the cost this year.
My apologies for the formatting of this post. I had it laid out in bullet points, but it seems when I edited the comment after initial posting, the formatting was lost when it was re-posted. Here it is again (I hope it works):
For anyone concerned about the acquisition cost of Dickinson, consider the following information using the picks drafted from #15-47 overall (goalies were excluded):
2020 Draft (now 23-24 year olds and should be firmly established NHLers)
2021 Draft
2022 Draft
A player picked in this range, which is the range of the Oilers 1st round pick, is not a sure impactful player by any means. Yes, the future value of a 1st rounder has a sufficiently high value that it can often net a good offensive or two-way player, but Dickinson’s defensive metrics are strong, and a good defensive player should not be looked down upon, especially when filling a massive need.
Other considerations are the cost to get out of Mangiapane’s contract, getting Dach who also fills a lineup need (4th line energy, big body with toughness and skill, youth, likely unmet ceiling), having a more balanced lineup, and adding leadership and a quality person.
Will coach bench Dach when he hits for the sake of hitting?
I think this requires Dach getting into the lineup first, which looks unlikely …
Well these trades give me some hope for this year as I am pleased to see attention to pk and toughness for the playoffs. Have to say the wingers dont impress much with after the first line any one could play on any line at coach choice.
Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
The #MNWild acquire Jeff Petry from Florida for a 2026 7th-round pic
Florida selling…Bobrovsky may be available.
Maybe Fred/Rico will waive to save taxes
Both Murphy and Dach are suitable for physical playoff hockey.
Although it seems the Oil are not likely to meet the Panthers again this yr, here’s a reminder of what happens during a 7 game stretch…https://youtube.com/shorts/N2zJ3RdakbY?si=G8Wus2wtLkT333_O
Just WOW!!!
Man… I remain absolutely certain that if Florida and Oilers had swapped head coaches, McDavid would have had 2 rings by now.
And with that monkey off his back, maybe he would have won gold a few weeks ago too.
Or hired Zito when they interviewed him
Mark Stone to the IR.
Yup about that time. Clockwork.
It is nice to know that this yr they can’t really take advantage of it.
IR is not LTIR.
Max relief they can get for Stone if he does go on LTIR is $3.8MM unless he’s out for the playoffs.
In order to play any acquired player and Stone in the playoffs, both’s full AAV need to be accounted for on their playoff cap.
yes, thank you, I mixed it up.
VGK also has atrocious goaltending. The Oilers should take advantage of this and win the division, but they aren’t playing like that’s their goal.
Not at all, see how it shakes out with the additions. Never know with this team, Drai is starting to heat up again now. The physicality should start to crank up again ala last yr. This team is hard to watch tbo. You see them play incredible hockey and know it is in there but this season it mostly hasn’t been, they cover like learning peewees at times. There lies the frustration.
See how it shakes out with the new additions full stop.
Throw tanner pearson type in with 50% retained (500k) for effective extra guy fit on roster down stretch and call it a deadline?
8 hits/60
3 shots blocked/60
1 min/60 PK
A depth D, perhaps a Troy Stetcher type.
I wish we had done an Alex Lyon trade around mid-November.
I can’t even get started on that one.
Peanuts costing when buffalo was looking sunk.
Dither dither overpay in panic way oiler methodology.
I don’t think there’s a way to add and then take advantage of the ability to bench Nurse’s 9.25 in the playoffs, is there? That’s a shame.
OP, hoping that you can clarify this for me. Is our CPA roster in the playoffs determined by who is in the lineup? If Nurse is not dressed for a playoff game, does his cap hit still count?
No expert but I think the submitted roster has to be cap compliant for playoffs. They limited how much cap relief there is for LTIR for a player at about 3.8M in season, so it’s harder to load up than it was like Florida last season
An exception would be if a team had a good roster and a lot of cap space, they could add good players and use them, but having a good team and having a lot of cap isn’t the norm
The Oilers haven’t been over the cap in playoffs and faced teams that were. It will be a more even competition this year
For each game
There is a significant number of “good teams” that have significant cap space available.
For what I see as contenders, current cap space from Puckpedia which is what they can add now:
Oilers 475K
Vegas 1.5M
Dallas 5.51M
Colorado 6.78M
Wild 10.99M
Carolina 39.41M
Tampa 2.21M
Buffalo 7.68M
Some teams will have internal budgets, you have to have the money to write the cheques. The Canes and Wild have a lot of cap, but teams can’t load up using LTIR like they used to and play everyone in the playoffs
The Canes have $40M of available cap space???
Its for each game – the dressed players (plus dead/buried cap).
Its the iced roster (plus dead and buried cap) so, correct, if Nurse is not dressed he won’t count on the cap for that game.
At the same time Nurse’s cap hit counts during the regular season even if he’s not benched so they can’t really find a way to do what is being suggested.
Platoon of defenseman on standby be smart pickups
(As wild just did with 7th rnd pick)
@KevinWeekes
Update Re St.Louis Blues D Parayko,
I’m told his preference as of now is
to stay in the West, and he’s open to
the LA Kings and Anaheim Ducks among potential landing spots.
I think you can generally like the acquisitions and disposition of a rancid contract while also acknowledging that this continues the long, long, LONG history of poor asset management with this organization.
You alluded to it LT and I know others have too, but the negativity some are expressing IMO is at least partially because many of us can see that the long term trend of how they manage cap space and assets has been somewhere between slow bleed and sliced artery
If I burn down my garage trying to cook meth, I don’t get a pat on the back for getting a good deal on the rebuild because I bundled it with something else. I still wasted time, money, and opportunity dealing with a problem I created
It’s this incremental loss in value over time that kills us. It’s the reason we start every single season tight to the cap with dead cap space from buyouts, retention, etc. We can’t be on a level playing field with better run franchises because we start behind the 8 ball every season.
I just checked, out of Florida, Colorado, Tampa, Dallas, and Vegas only Dallas has any buyouts on the books. This is their last season of Suter’s buyout. We have Campbell’s buyout until 2030 at $2.3M this season, $2.6M next year, then $1.5M til the end of the decade. It kills our flexibility and costs us at least 1 roster player every single year.
Not to ring the troll’s bell, but Colorado is similarly top heavy to the Oilers, but they still have cap space after making multiple acquisitions. We’re pulling cap shenanigans just to fit ourselves under the cap after our cap dump, which while admirable for their creativity, is still indicative of the long term trend of poor cap management.
So sure, give SB kudos for making the best of a bad situation. He made out decently all things considered. Just don’t ignore the fact that he dug the hole himself and paid someone else to rescue him
Really, it’s the same old Oilers. Mortgaging the future to pay for today’s problems!
SB seems to be good at prospect pool management, which is fortunate because his pro scouting, procurement, and contract management is generally abysmal
Excellent post.
I did get a great price on the rebuild of my garage thank you very much!
Your nephew was needing work.
Bowman didn’t sign Nurse or Henri and didn’t buy out Campbell. Mangi isn’t the first winger that didn’t work out. Frederic is coming along now. It’s not that bad
I think we have to be careful about nostalgia when looking at other franchises.
Is MacCrimmon still a genius with Hertl, Hill, Theodore annd Hanfin on the team and Thompson over in Washington?
Colorado loses more frequently in the 2nd round than hey advance over the years.
Carolina has had a goalie issue longer than the Oilers. The Necas into Rantanen into Stankoven blowup has to dock marks for their GMing no? It’s also weird how the Pens and Islanders are basically running the exact same goal against averages.
Dallas is capably run but they arent infallible. That Harley contract is insane and there are a lot of MNCs on Puckpedia. there’s also just something soft about that team. I just can’t say Robertson, Johnson, Heiskanen and Duchene strike fear into my heart? A lack of beards I reckon.
Vegas, Colorado, Tampa and Dallas have all jettisoned a bigly amount of picks and prospects over the years. Vegas, Colorado and soon Dallas, are hollowed out on the prospect front.
Meanwhile the Oilers have made the playoffs almost as many consecutive years as those franchises. Have gone deeper than all of them repeatedly and have better players at the top positions compared to all of them. And are perhaps slowly but surely restocking the prospect pipeline right at the edge of NHL entry.
Like Scungili says it’s not that bad. Hell if you look at where the cap is going and how much our big guys are signed for… I mean it’s downright good.
And yet if Stan matches on Bro n Holly that’s two firsts loaded back into the gun.
Good article but was it 100 % SB or was it JJ messing things up again. Id love to know what JJ does or is he kept around because of his relationship and potential help in keeping McDavid on board.
From watching Oil Change Jackson is involved in every hockey ops meeting for trade deadline, free agency etc. and very involved
This is it exactly. Coupled with hiring managers who have proven that they can’t build for the future. The last three have captained their predecessors boat to the bottom of the sea.
Wether its management or players the Oilers are always hungry for a once famous name, regardless of their most recent track record. It’s like a hidden hand is running the organization since Pocklington sold it.
Looking forward to your next book, “For Whom the Bell Trolls”.
Excellent reference.
Good post.
I would like to add that the Oilers have essentially squandered the last three #1 picks they have traded. Either by overpaying, or trying to correct a previous mistake.
A first rounder for a Henrique rental was an overpay. Wennberg was acquired for a second rounder at the same deadline. Enough said.
A first rounder for Walman and 2 playoff runs might be defensible. Except they could have just paid Broberg and kept the 1st!
A first rounder for Dickinson just so they could get rid of Mangiapane is the definition of shooting yourself in the foot.
It just shows a continuing pattern of horrible asset management. I’m confident half the posters on this blog could do better. Hell, sitting on your hands would have been better. Where’s Steve Tambellini when you need him?
Trying to stay positive here but Bowman screws up signing Mangiapane (like it wasn’t even close!) and then surrenders way too much to make up for it. Oh right, staying positive….yes Dickinson will be useful, they retained and it’s a protected first rounder….mantra
The Oilers also tend to double-down on their mistakes by resigning + overpaying + NMCing their deadline acquisitions (Henrique, Frederic, etc.)
Just compounding mistakes. Cap space and roster flexibility are assets too, and are just as (if not more) valuable than draft picks some times …
Good post and the mangiapane signing did not work out.
But it seems most of the blown assets & cap mismanagement can be linked more to kenny h than bowman..just my two cents.
I personally would love to see a 3-5 game stretch of:
Nuge McD Hyman
Howard Drai Savoie
Podz Dickinson Roslovic
Dach Samanski Frederic
Ekholm Bouch
Walman Murphy
Nurse Emberson
*Lesser Sieve
*Sieve
First line, duh.
That second line with some chemistry could be very sexy, a skilled, speedy cerebral type with a forechecking shooter with Drai? Yes please.
This line, Defensively aware, speedy, taking hats match ups that break even or possibly even outscore? Yes please.
Fourth line that could be an absolute load, forechecking demons that pound and grind? Hopefully!
*- Soley to trigger some people.
I don’t know if Howard is a better choice than Kapanen in a playoff lineup. Roslovic & Savoie flanking Leon has looked terrific, so has Podz & Kapanen. I just don’t see Howard as being impactful just yet at the NHL level.
I like Kappy in the playoffs and right now. Inconsistent as he is, he has been solid this season aside from the injuries.
I like the Curlock read, give Dach some games down with the other youth to build up and then try him up to hammer some people from the 4th. Keep it simple.
This team needs a backbone. I think he may help that, possibly the other newbies will too. Dach might give Freddy a boost mentally.
From those clips he looks ready already.
i don’t think you will see roslovic who is the worst defensive forward paired with dickinson when dickinson was brought in to upgrade the team defence.
I prefer Sieve Major and Sieve Minor
The “soley” triggers me more than the “sieve”
Bruce Curlock likes Dach, good news. He has a Substack if anyone is interested
https://bcurlock.substack.com/p/meet-the-new-guy-colton-dach
That is a terrific read, thanks for sharing.
Curlock is also a believer in Patty Dach supremacy.
I’m a believer in Patty Dach supremacy too.
Welcome fellow follower, may the light shine bright.
Count me as hopping on the Paddy Wagon ;). Make the Bottom 6 a Menace Again.
Bring in the cheap guys who accept their role and avoid has-beens who think because they scored 30 half a decade ago they’re entitled to play with 97.
Tanks
Thanks for the link
This may be a stretch but I wonder if Jason Dickinson could play the Michal Handzus role. A big defensive centre that can do the heavy lifting down low to free up an all world offensive talent. Even decrease the wear and tear on a draisaitl. Could try
Hyman-McD-Savoie
Drai-Dickinson-Roslovic
Podz-Nuge-Frederick
Forgot about Kapenen. I would go Podz-Nuge-Kapenen
The worth of Dickinson is so dependent on how Coach KK uses him. If KK matches Dickinson again the other teams’ top line then this trade could be a huge win. Time will tell.
I think Jason Dickinson is KK’s type of player.
Yeah, me too – low event veteran who knows his job on this roster is to give the coach 15 quiet/boring minutes a night and let 97/29 score the goals.
Now, I don’t think that’s a recipe for success, but it’s how this forward group is built.
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
I’m told STL Colton Parayko is open to a trade to a different destination, and of course prefers to stay in St. Louis.
But not Buffalo – an outcome not all that different than Tyler Myers with Detroit.
Now, will another team pay the same price Buffalo put on the table?
Today HH learns that just because a team has cap space and wants to trade for a player, it does not guarantee they will get said player.
I told you more than a week ago that Myers wanted to go to Dallas given that he has connections to Texas where he was born.
You were also saying Johnny Gaudreau wouldn’t leave the Flames and that Matthews is pining to return to California.
Not sure what your response has to do with my post, though.
I think Buffalo dodged a bullet. Parayko is a #4 now and his ceiling was 3 years ago.
I can understand the Sabres want playoffs and playoff success, but Mrtka and a 1st was a massive price for CP.
Totally Agree. I still don’t mind the player but damn, he is getting up there and will just get slower now.
I think so too especially since his contract runs until he’s 37 although it was front loaded and could easily be bought out.
the hurricanes are now valued at 2.66 billion.
i don’t think nhl owners are worried about having to pay a few extra million on a buyout.
Practice per Tony B
RNH – McDavid – Hyman/Kapanen
Savoie – Draisaitl – Roslovic/Podkolzin
Samanski – Henrique – Frederic
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Emberson
Walman – Murphy
Stastney
So that looks to me like Dickinson to slide in at 3 C with Podz and Kap as his wingers. I like it.
So Walman isn’t really injured? He hasn’t missed a practice since not playing in the 3rd period.
He confirmed that he was benched.
Thanks. I missed that comment by Walman.
Interesting that KK said that Walman had tweaked something when asked about it.
He said he tweaked something. But he also said he needs to play better.
I don’t remember what the coach said
Correct he was benched by Knoblauch.
Knob was being nice. Jake said later he wasn’t hurt that bad he was benched
I see it was already said
1st and 5th for Roy?
1st for Dickenson, Dach and no Mangi next year?
And retention
Good correction! Appreciated the posts last night Mr Slushy, was wild in here
Cheers
Roy has another year on his contract which increases his value.
Ummm, or decreases. That’s like saying trading Henrique with another year increases his value. Pretty sure that’s not the case.
Chicago got a steal in Mangiapane! His value will only increase as he has another year on his contract!
Roy has value at age 29 while Henrique at 36 is cooked and cooling off in the farmhouse window (GF 33%)
Roy also has the ability to play up the lineup has he often did successfully in Vegas.
At a $3 million cap hit, Roy represents a value deal in a rapidly escalating cap environment.
Or he becomes HH favorite, Tanner Jeannot 2.0. A player who a team gave a lot of assets for with the expectation they would play up the lineup and put up points but did not. Woops.
So if Edmonton payed a 1st and 5th for Roy, that would have been a good deal for Edmonton?
Given that Colorado is likely to have a very low first round pick, it works for them.
At the moment, the Oilers are 17th in the league by points percentage and although the pick is in 2027 the long term prognosis favours Colorado since they have all their impact players locked up for term…so a different nexus.
In isolation, I think Roy is a better player but not by a large margin.
Colorado got an extra year on the Roy contract but the Oilers were able to dump Mangiapane and that has value however, there’s a chance Dickinson is one and done as an Oiler so they will have paid a middling first round pick to dump Mangiapane and a couple of months of Dickinson.
Is that worth a first round pick?
(The late round picks are nothing more than pocket lint)
An objective trade grade here:
https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/jason-dickinson-trade-grades-oilers-185002926.html
The pick Colorado traded is also a 2027 first round pick, so their record this year is irrelevant.
But in consideration of “a different nexus”, if it were a 2026 pick, it would be worth mentioning that the Avs were bounced in the first round last year, the second round the year before, and the first round the year prior.
But thanks for giving this a try.
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
As part of trading Mangiapane for Dickinson & Dach, #LetsgoOilers added Lazar to LTIR.
After the trade & LTIR move, they have $475K cap space remaining in LTIR with 22 active players (13F/7D/2G) + Janmark/Lazar LTIR.
If the projected roster for their next game dressed in playoffs, they’d have $2M of playoff cap space.
Great find. I didn’t consider the playoff cap, the two retentions are huge, they can ice a deeper line up. It will be interesting to see how it shapes up against other teams. First playoffs in a bit where the Oilers may be on an even playing field
That’s including Samanski & the three Hawks.
Wow, Parayko won’t waive his NMC to go to playoff contending Buffalo.
Really hits home, whenever we talk about doing this and that to get Nurse to waive his NMC … it’s a delicate discussion and requires actual people skills to accomplish.
Also makes me wonder … if Armstrong strikes out on deals to move Parayko, Thomas and Kyrou, will he panic and make Binnington available for whatever someone is willing to offer?. Could Bowman course correct and send Jarry and a prospect for Binnington?
Time is running out for Armstrong to get some business done.
Nurse won’t waive unless it gets very uncomfortable in some way. Bowman may not move him when he can if he is playing well enough, his cap hit becomes less a problem each cap hike, and sadly Ek is nearing having to move down because of health
I wanted to let my thoughts percolate overnight to avoid a knee jerk reaction.
I think this is a test of Coach Knoblauch and his systems play. Chicago had the #1 PK this season with Murphy as the 2nd highest TOI for D and Dickinson was #3 in TOI for forwards. If EDM doesn’t improve on PK in the final weeks of the season, we’ll have confirmation it was a bad PK scheme.
Similarly, we are struggling on keeping the puck out of the net. We’ve changed the goalies so we can’t blame them solely. We’re now swapping in players who are defensively responsible. If we keep leaking goals, it’s on the coach. He’s either failing at motivating the team to play responsibly or the system is bad or both.
Watching Dickinson play, he was always hard matched against McDavid in CHI. He sole responsibility was shutting down the most dangerous opponents. From what I remember he was pretty good but McDavid can overwhelm good.
Hopefully Murphy & Dickinson’s defensive prowess will rub off onto the rest of the team. Show them that it’s actually cool to be responsible defensively. Coaches are going to love these guys.
I think the only game state their “Defense” will be truly valuable is the PK, given that’s the only time you’re expecting to play without the puck and suppress offense.
I do think their additions will be net-positive 5v5 given it pushes other players down the roster, but I’m not sold that these are the types of additions that really fix/address the Oilers core issues
I thought that, during our great PK run, the PK system was something like a 1-1-2 with the goal of not letting the cross-ice pass through. That cross ice pass, which we saw against Ottawa, is a killer for the goalie. Keeping it to one side reduces the side-to-side, and I thought played to Skinner’s strength. I don’t know why we went away from it (I think coaches figured out how to beat it…I thought I saw teams expose the empty space to the dot), but there must be some innovative ways to control the PP puck flow. The NHL is a copycat league.
[I’m not a hockey player, but I watch it on T.V.]
Man some folks are negative. A GM can’t go get whatever player they want. Some teams ask for too much. St Louis hasn’t moved Thomas. Utah paid 3 x 2nds and a 3rd equivalent for Weegar who was sheltered against elites according to PuckIQ and has goal shares against their tiers of 30.4, 33.3, 37.5. That’s a lot
The Avs paid a 1st and 5th for 5 goals 20 point Roy with no retention. The Knights paid a prospect 2nd and 3rd for 35YO Dowd with no retention, who is having a rough season and his 4 goals. The Knights paid a prospect and 3rd for a 4th line player, the Wild a 2nd for one.
Bowman directly addressed the need for good defensive players and got two the Hawks coach says they wouldn’t trade if they were in a better spot, filling the need at RD and C. They players aren’t too old, he shed Mangi, got a physical young depth C/LW, got retention twice, for a 1st and a 2nd, and gave up none of the good young players in the system. The team and org are deeper, those picks are years out from helping, if they ever do
He still has a 1st or 2nd round pick in upcoming drafts. It could have been better if Dickinson was RC, but this could have been far worse. I think it’s a solid job, they may not be done, I hope the new players help
Patty Dach supremacy.
I think the media reports of this being a “buyers market” has skewed people’s expectations.
We are basing this idea on the reports of the “insiders” whose job is to generate views and clicks.
But if everyone expects the TDL to always favour the sellers, and that most of the time blockbuster deals don’t typically get done, it undermines the media frenzy that they hope to create at this time of the year.