Penguins at Oilers, G8 2024-25

Edmonton Oilers are 2-4-1 with some winnable games over the next few days. This organization is a combination of ‘death or glory’ around every turn, around every transaction. This has created a black-and-white, all good or bad feel to the entire franchise.

You know, it’s reasonable to say Jeff Jackson has accomplished much since arriving in Edmonton and should be praised for a series of moves that were astute and often backed by analytics. It’s also reasonable to say that he was the head of the management group that got caught flat-footed on the St. Louis Blues offer sheets. Those things can be, and are, true. It doesn’t make him evil, doesn’t make him a genius, and doesn’t make him an evil genius. What acknowledging these facts allows us to do is examine what is here, what may come and what one should be prepared for between now and the deadline.

The Athletic article today is about the not so hilarious similarities between Jay Woodcroft’s team in October 2023 and Kris Knoblauch’s team in October 2024. It is here.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER

• At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
• On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
• On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
• Actual October results: 2-4-1, five points in seven games
• Oilers in 2024-25:  2-4-1, five points in seven games

I thought the Carolina game built on the two wins earlier in the month and can see a scenario where the Oilers collect points in every game between now and Halloween night. There is probably too much wobble for that to happen, but there are things coming into view for this team. A win tonight gets up the final days of October well, and would ensure the gales of November don’t come early.

LET THE MUSIC PLAY

Oilers fans are upset with the success of players raided, traded, lost to waivers and possibly carrier pigeon over the summer and I get it. Ken Holland left the team vulnerable and the rest of management sat idly by, confident the NHL would remain docile when two candidates appeared on the same team at the same time. I don’t know what percentage of blame should be laid above Holland, and it doesn’t matter. What does matter is that no one in hockey ops skates on this one. If anyone in the organization’s hockey ops department spoke up, then that person should get a bigger office and more control. If not, well, all involved should get a share of the blame.

If the Oilers want to erase the headlines about Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, it’s easy. Win.

One area that isn’t getting much attention is how the replacements are doing. In my article for The Athletic today, I take a brief look at Ty Emberson. He has been heading in a good direction lately, but the coaching staff isn’t playing him enough for Emberson to get noticed. I like Kris Knoblauch, think he’ll be a fine NHL coach, but rookie coaches sometimes elevate veterans over youth and in this case I think it’s a bad idea. If he plays Kulak-Emberson for 20 games in a row, my guess is that Knoblauch will have a pairing he can count on for the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

I also believe Max Wanner may be NHL-ready during the 2024-25 season. Just four games into the AHL season, the Bakersfield Condors shutdown blue has a 5-1 even-strength goal share when he’s on the ice. This isn’t a new thing, either, the young man went 52-42 last season.

I am all-in on a strong debate about this Oilers team for 2024-25. I think it’s fair to be critical of management over the offer sheets. I think the coaching staff needs to settle in with Emberson, Vasily Podkolzin and let the second line cook with Leon Draisaitl, Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. Don’t get in the way of optimal deployment. Oilers fans have seen coaches blow past solutions because they didn’t give it time. Edmonton doesn’t have a Miro Satan situation brewing, but there are solutions emerging and I’m not sure the coach has noticed.

It’s a busy Friday on the Lowdown, Sports 1440 beginning at noon. Guests include Mike Stelter (Ben’s Cup), Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and Declan Krueger’s Declanations. We’ll talk Oilers-Penguins, World Series, Elks, NFL weekend and more. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.