Oilers at Predators, G11 2024-25

Leon Draisaitl belongs to a family of players I regard as one of the most valuable in the game. Jean Beliveau is part of that family, he’s at the top end. Peter Mahovlich is on the list a little lower, Doug Wickenheiser lower still, many names over the years qualify. Big centers with the ability to push the river offensively. Leon is at the top end. Seriously. Over the three seasons previous to this one, the big man owns a five-on-five goal share of 52.6 percent when playing away from Connor McDavid (59.6 with the captain) and 55 percent overall.

In those same three seasons (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24), he is averaging (at five-on-five) 2.52 pts-60 and .91 goals-60. His pts-60 ranks No. 15 among regulars during those years. Leon Draisaitl is an exceptional player, one of the greatest of his generation and a true No. 1 center with a wide range of skills. I wanted to say that because sometimes the big man gets overlooked because of McDavid. Oilers fans are incredibly fortunate to be living through this era of Edmonton hockey, and Draisaitl is a big part of the thrilling hockey we are seeing now.

The Athletic article today is about the assets out that might be required to add a piece between now and the deadline. You won’t read a scarier Halloween story than this one. It is here.

LEON THE LION

Last season, age 28, Draisaitl averaged .80 pts-game at even strength. He accomplished that in a league that averaged 2.37 goals-per-game at even strength.

Beliveau, age 28, averaged .77 pts-game at even strength in a league that averaged 2.33 goals-per-game at even strength.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM OCTOBER

• At home to: WPG, CHI, CAL, PHI (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 1-3-0)
• On the road to: NAS, DAL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• At home to: CAR, PIT (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-1)
• On the road to: DET, CBJ, NAS (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
• Overall expected result: 7-4-0, 14 points in 11 games
• Actual October results: 4-5-1, nine points in 10 games
• Oilers in 2024-25:  4-5-1, nine points in 10 games

If the Oilers win tonight, I’ll call it a ‘I love the smell of Napalm in the morning” October. One of these years this Oilers team will be fully ready for the start of a season. This is not that season.

LINES AND PAIRINGS

Vasily Podkolzin-Leon Draisaitl-Viktor Arvidsson is the top line tonight, not your usual suspects for sure but if they can outscore it sets up a solid second line. In 26 minutes together five-on-five, this trio is 0-3 goals but owns an expected goal share of 62 percent. Early days, and I know expected goals is about as popular as Corsi for some of you, but it’s the stat I value most, especially when samples are so low. I approve of the line. I would prefer Jeff Skinner over Podkolzin (that trio is 0-1 goals with a 65 percent expected goal share in 33 minutes) but understand the idea of spreading out the offense. Draisaitl toys with the Predators for fun, so this line should have a good evening.

Jeff Skinner-Nuge-Zach Hyman has played less than four minutes together, but Nuge-Hyman are 2-2 goals in 65 minutes (the McDavid line) with an expected goal share of 36 percent. Jeff Skinner has an expected goal share of 54 percent (all of these numbers are five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick) and is 4-5 actual goals (that’s a solid number for any Oilers player through 10 games). Kris Knoblauch has faded Skinner a little to my eye, I see he’s still on the second PP team. Edmonton needs Nuge to deliver here, he hasn’t looked his best through 10 games.

Mattias Janmark-Adam Henrique-Connor Brown are 1-3 goals in 35 minutes, with an expected goal share of 49.4 percent. I’m more than a little alarmed by early season Henrique, he is getting caved versus elites and mids accoring to Puck IQ. Some are saying the Ryan McLeod trade was a mistake. I’m not buying because the Oilers acquired a more skilled player for him. That said, Henrique can’t possibly be this bad. Can they play him at center all season if this is what he has? My goodness.

Derek Ryan/Drake Caggiula-Noah Philp-Corey Perry will populate the fourth line and we’ll see. Noah Philp has a clear shot at the No. 4 center job, I don’t think Derek Ryan can deliver in that role. He and Corey Perry are quality veterans but are running out of time and are not everyday players. I think that’s the reason Drake Caggiula accompanied Philp from Bakersfield. Perry/Ryan may play around 50 games this season, but I doubt either gets to 60 GP.

Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard are golden, holding a 54 percent goal share and 60 percent expected goal share in 166 minutes. Pristine. Ekholm leads the team in minutes versus elites (57) and has a 59 percent Dangerous Fenwick. Man if the Oilers could get another pairing like this one.

Brett Kulak-Ty Emberson are 2-4 goals but 65 percent expected goals through 84 minutes. I’m prepared to endorse this pairing as a playoff worthy third pairing. Why? Kulak has plus speed and is proven in the role, and Emberson is coming along and should be a real asset by April.

Brett Kulak-Darnell Nurse have a 72 percent expected goals but are 0-1 goals. This pairing is 18-7 shots. I think it’s understandable that Knoblauch is running this pair, but do hope they can find a Nurse partner from elsewhere so that Kulak-Emberson pair has time to develop.

Darnell Nurse-Travis Dermott are 0-2 in 46 minutes with a 27 percent expected goal share. One of these games will be the last time we see this duo. Darnell Nurse-Troy Stecher won’t be seen tonight, but are 1-3 goals with a 45 perent expected goal share. I like that pairing more than Nurse-Dermott. Darnell Nurse-Ty Emberson are 0-2 goals and 25 percent expected goals in 15 minutes.

Calvin Pickard starts, he has been the better goalie so far this season. Important to note that Stuart Skinner saved this team during the early days of the last two seasons. From the start of the 2022-23 season through today, Skinner has a .918 SP at five-on-five. That ranks No. 14 among NHL goaltenders over that time period. If you want Dom Hasek, you’ll need to deal Evan Bouchard to get it done. Failing that, I’m not sure Oilers fans should trust a search in the mid-level of goalering will bring in better results. I doubt many agree, but for me the template is don’t go chasing goaltenders, stick to the rivers and lakes that you’re used to.

MCDAVID

I see some are saying the Oilers dodged a bullet with McDavid’s estimated timeline (2-3 weeks) for recovery. I get it. However, for Oilers fans who pay big dollars to sit and watch this team live, it’s a bitter pill. Look, watching McDavid is like seeing the Beatles at Shea Stadium, or the Stones at Madison Square Garden. It’s beyond special. He is the highest level of entertainment on the hockey planet. National media doesn’t get to see him live that often, but Oilers fans do. There is a solemn feel to any game without McDavid. It hits a little differently. Unfair to Draisaitl and Bouchard and the team overall, but the human adrenaline rush has been grounded and that’s a very real disappointment for Oilers fans.

A busy day on the Lowdown as we tee up the Oilers-Predators game. It’s the first without Connor McDavid and comes at a time when the team appeared to be crawling from the wreckage of that poor start to the year. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will help us set the stage. We’ll also talk World Series and the absolute bollocks fifth inning when they forgot how to play baseball. The Elks officially announce the team’s next president (Chris Morris) today and we’ll talk about what that may mean for the future. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.