Top 20 Prospects

This is the ‘rolling top 20’ Oilers prospects from the winter of 2016. All of Taylor Hall, Nuge, Nail Yakupov, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid had already graduated (50 NHL games for forwards, 25 for defencemen) and we were left staring at very few future NHL players and zero impact NHL players.

The Athletic article today is about Jeff Skinner and his deployment. He has more to give, but needs a better center to get it done. Article is here.

THE 2013 FARM WORKERS

Here’s a look at the top 20 prospects from 2013, in a different way. I have written a farm workers post for over a decade now and will write another in the spring. I thought it would be a good time to have a look at things. Let’s start with the 2013 FW post in its entirety:

1. Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. You’ll find the odd goalie or defenseman but unlike the orginal 6 era very few teams have enough depth and free agency makes it impossible to keep them on the farm. Which is a good thing.  BARONS 12-13: Yann Danis (31) got into three games, perfectly matching hockey’s past. 
2. Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2009). Barons 12-13: If we exclude Hall and co from the lockout, you bet. Even guys like Paajarvi are working on something (although he’s made solid progress, a reflection of the wisdom of keeping most of your prospects in the AHL for a  significant portion of their entry level deal). 
3. We shouldn’t expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano.Whatever that line in the sand is, that line sticks. BARONS 12-13: I think Paajarvi is going to have a long career, but that’s a guess and he has certainly played enough in the AHL (72 games now) for there to be a gap in GP compared to kids who never played in the minors. 
4. No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. It is a rare thing for a player to spend a couple of seasons in the minors and then go on to a 1,000 NHL game calibre career. Barons 12-13: Paajarvi’s played 163 at age 21, he’s certainly ahead of most AHL players at that age. I think he might be that rare item, but we’re still a little ways from knowing if he’ll be an everyday player on a contending team. Let’s mark him down as a possible outlier and check back  each season until he’s 25. If he’s 400+ games by then, I think he’ll have a good shot at 1,000 NHL game. 
5. If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. The players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. Barons 12-13: Sure, agreed. I think Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Marincin, Lander and now Rajala have done enough to be considered NHL prospects. Pitlick, Hamilton, Pelss, Davidson, Roy, Bunz etc are not yet there but have at least a little time.
6. Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. Barons 12-13: The obvious recent examples are Jeff Petry and this past season Justin Schultz, I think Taylor Fedun is probably on the outside looking in but that’s not established. Young C Andrew Miller wil be a player to follow from this category next season. This is an area Edmonton should be extremely aggressive in moving forward, it’s a great way to increase the depth of that 20-22 year old organizational cluster. 
7. A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. It also tells us we already have our answer on Colin McDonald. Barons 12-13: Last time it was Hartikainen, Omark, etc and now it’s Cornet, Arcobello, Rajala, Lander. Interesting that Colin McDonald changed the answer. Good for him. 
8. If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summerwe can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list gets a haircut every summer. Barons 12-13: Obvious flushes would appear to be Antti Tyrvainen, Alex Plante, Niko Hovinen, Colten Teubert. They haven’t completely cut ties with Linus Omark, but that’s likely to happen this summer too.  
9. Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. Barons 12-13: Hartikainen, Lander and maybe down the line guys like Marincin are the ones with the best chance to find their way. The AHL is a lot about grinding the flaws out of the players and making them into useful role players for NHL coaching staffs. Play the role, keep the job. Ad-lib like Taylor Hall? See you in OKC. Oilers have passed on skilled men like Schremp and Omark over their recent history, mostly because the really talented offensive forwards don’t spend any time in the AHL. 
10. For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. Barons 12-13: Omark didn’t make it, we’ll see about Rajala. The odds are stacked against him in all kinds of ways, not the least of which is the ridiculous NHL depth chart on the wings. 
11. The future NHLERS are……..If I’m a betting man, these are the winners from the current group to be the new Cleary and Chimera. Barons 12-13: I choose Paajarvi, Lander, Hartikainen and Marincin. I know that’s a lot (four), but Paajarvi is a 10th overall selection, Lander and Marincin are second rounders and Hartikainen is one of those guys who beat his draft number. He’s 52 games into an NHL career that should never have happened based on where he was selected (6th round). 

THE CURRENT FARM WORKERS

1. Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. You’ll find the odd goalie or defenseman but unlike the orginal 6 era very few teams have enough depth and free agency makes it impossible to keep them on the farm. Which is a good thing.  CONDORS 2024-25: There are five Condors who are 30 and over, and one of them (Drake Caggiula) is back in the NHL! I spend a ridiculous amount of time looking for outliers like this, so do wonder if the other four (Collin Delia, Josh Brown, Seth Griffith, Connor Carrick) will join the party. The Caggiula recall is quite the deal, historically.
2. Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 through 2009). CONDORS 24-25: True for sure, I don’t expect Matthew Savoie to spend this and next year in the minors and all others are in the meandering category. I will make note here of Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe, who are matriculating toward a possible NHL future. Men chosen outside the first round have to earn it in a way first-round picks do not (unless MacT is the coach), but these two men have a chance.
3. We shouldn’t expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano. What ever that line in the sand is, that line sticks. CONDORS 2024-25:Oilers don’t really have any players in this category, although on the surface Savoie would qualify. I don’t think he’ll play enough AHL games to impact his NHL career GP in a meaningful way.
4. No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. It is a rare thing for a player to spend a couple of seasons in the minors and then go on to a 1,000 NHL game calibre career. CONDORS 2024-25: I believe it was a credible reading of the Paajarvi future in that 2014 look back, and Savoie fits this description about as well. Matthew Savoie has played in one NHL game, and has 10 points in 13 AHL games. He’s going to reach a point-per-game (barring injury) at some point this season, and then it’s only a matter of time.
5. If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. The players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. CONDORS 2024-24: From the current group of players 22 and under, I would say all of Savoie, Grubbe, Wanner, Matvey Petrov and Roby Jarventie are prospects of interest. That leaves James Stefan, an AHL rookie, as a player who we can question. He hasn’t proven what he is either way, to be honest, so this isn’t a negative thing to say. We don’t know what we don’t know, is all. Scored a goal last night, so that’s a good arrow.
6. Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. CONDORS 2024-25: This area was tailor made for Noah Philp. He has had an unusual career but arrived in the NHL the other night as a man with a skill set that is workable and repeatable. What a terrific turn for player and organization. Do you know how rare it is to have an extreme need at the NHL level while also having a real plug-and-play option in that exact area at the same time? One in a million shot, folks.
7. A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. It also tells us we already have our answer on Colin McDonald. CONDORS 2024-25: Time has taught me that they’re almost all tweeners. I’ll list Grubbe, Petrov, Wanner, Stefan, Carl Berglund, James Hamblin, Noel Hoefenmayer, Phil Kemp, Ben Gleason, Cameron Wright, Cam Dineen, Lane Pederson. That leaves Philp, Savoie, Jarventie and Rodrigue.
8. If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summer, we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list gets a haircut every summer. CONDORS 2024-25: Roby Jarventie is RFA in the summer, Edmonton traded for him during the Jeff Jackson era and that’s a tell. Any prospect procured by the current management team is automatically an insider, and who is more valuable to the team than the prospect pool on the day of arrival for the management leader. It seems to strange, but this has held true ever since the world began. Blood is thicker than water.
9. Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. CONDORS 2024-25: First name I thought of? Philp. Savoie is the best prospect to play for the Condors this year, I just don’t think he’s an AHL player really. Young Jarventie also deserves a mention, with a giant asterisk around his injury history. These two men are mature physically and have a range of skills. Absolute hockey dynamite in the AHL and those two could land in the NHL for years if things break right.
10. For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. He spent time in the minors before becoming an NHL scoring star without ever learning five percent of what Dave Keon knew about playing the game without the puck. CONDORS 2024-25: Omark was the example in 2013, damnable management at the time didn’t see what he could become. Omark could have played successfully for years in the NHL. Matt Savoie isn’t a pure offensive player. I love the sentence Red Line wrote about him in his draft year: “sees the game well, doesn’t have to work hard in some areas because he’s never chasing.” Music!!! You could include Petrov here, but he isn’t the kind of dynamic talent delivered by Walton. He’s a little shy of Schremp, too.
11. The future NHLERS are……..If I’m a betting man, these are the winners from the current group to be the new Cleary and Chimera. CONDORS 2024-25: I always choose too many, because I allow my heart to get ahead of my brain. For me, Savoie and Philp are the strongest bets, so I’ll limit myself to those two men.

SUMMARY

The Oilers are going through another change in direction at the AHL level. Part of the change comes from where the team is drafting, or more accurately not drafting. Edmonton’s scouts don’t need to file on the top 50 prospects (although I’m sure they do) because the team isn’t going to be in the range when these young men are off the board.

On the positive side, it’s so much easier to project the current player types into the NHL in a workable role. Noah Philp doesn’t need to push for a No. 2 center job, he’s ideal for the third or fourth line. Olivier Rodrigue (who played well last night) doesn’t need to save the world ala Stuart Skinner fall 2022 and 2023, he merely has to be ready when the call comes.

Savoie is the star of this show, he was on the top line doing good things last night and I expect more of the same in the days to come.

A word about Jarventie to close. His draft day scouting report suggested he had good size and hands, but the boots were a worry. We can add injury to that list now. We can also say that he touched the puck more often last night than Xavier Bourgault did in a month of Sundays last fall.

It gives me no pleasure in saying it, because math liked Bourgault on his draft day and through his junior career. However, when you are drafting pure skill outside the top 10 names each season, it’s vitally important to make sure the player has the size and determination to break on through to the other side. Kailer Yamamoto is a small player too, and he sacrificed his body constantly to make the plays I’m speaking of, resulting in what looks like a short career in the NHL. I’d make that bet every time. Important to know what kind of motor you’re drafting. Jarventie gets to plays. The foot speed will make itself known as we see him more, but he has all kinds of determination and that counts, too.