During the 1980’s the Edmonton Oilers prospect pool fed the big-league team with trade assets and actual NHL players. Charlie Huddy, Andy Moog, Don Jackson, Steve Smith, Esa Tikkanen, Jeff Beukeboom, Kelly Buchberger and others made their way through the system to NHL success and the Stanley Cup.
The 2010’s saw several quality players come through two AHL cities, but the team didn’t get enough traction to find playoff success. Management changes and injuries left the team in a constant state of disarray and that didn’t get better until Ken Holland arrived.
Holland made sure men like Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway had plenty of minor-league experience, with the ultimate goal of having them play a decade or more in the NHL. Turns out, they will. Most of them will play in other NHL cities. The Holland tunnel, at least for useful prospects, mostly flowed one way. Out.
The Athletic article today is about the Oilers baffling inability to score and outscore. Regression will come, but will it be in time? And why is much of the blame on the goalies? Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 1-2-0, 2 points in 3 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 6-7-1, 13 points in 14 games
I have tonight as a win over the Vancouver Canucks. Van City is 7-2-1 in the last 10, but 1-1-3 at home. Edmonton should have the kind of desperation that comes from letting go of a lead against a division contender in the third period of the previous game. I’m never certain what version of the Oilers will show up in Vancouver, but am glad the Sedins are retired. Man, they wore out the Alberta teams.
THE REPLACEMENTS
It’s best to wait 20 games, so the experts say, but I’m impatient to see how things turn out. Edmonton followed up the dual offer sheet by St. Louis with two quick moves for Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin. I don’t think anyone expected those two to exceed what was expected of the exiting youngsters, but how are they doing, really?
Vasily Podkolzin is not exactly setting the world on first offensively (1.14 pts-60 at five-on-five) but ranks No. 4 among Edmonton’s forwards currently. Only Leon Draisaitl (2.36), Jeff Skinner (1.92) and Connor McDavid (1.72) are ahead of Podkolzin.
His five-on-five goal share is just 30 percent, that’s poor. However, his underlying numbers are quality. Podkolzin leads the team’s forwards in Corsi and Fenwick (both 65 percent), is second to Draisaitl with a 64 percent shot share and No. 2 to Leon in expected goals (64 percent).
The 30 percent goal share comes via a terrible on-ice shooting percentage and below average save percentage. Those totals should improve. Podkolzin has good arrows. Here’s the Puck IQ player card for Podkolzin:
The numbers here show some exposure to elites (he’s played with a pretty damn good center) during these early games with Podkolzin showing well. If we look at the overall deployment versus elites, we can see Podkolzin is one of the forwards getting more play versus elites.
Makes sense of course, he’s going to be on the ice against elites when playing with Draisaitl. What’s encouraging is the results. Playing about the same level of competition as the top forwards, Podkolzin’s 55 percent Dangerous Fenwick shows well. He isn’t at McDavid levels (65 percent versus elites) but that’s a solid part of the graph. Now, Draisaitl is floating all boats on the line, but overall I think Podkolzin is playing well enough to spend time on the No. 2 line this season. Suspect Nuge and Jeff Skinner will grab some of that time, though.
Ty Emberson has played in 12 of 14 games and owns the fewest minutes per game (12:43) at five-on-five. If the Oilers make a trade (rumours are out there) for a defenseman who can play right-side it’s possible Emberson sits. That’s a bad idea, because he could leave via free agency (Type 6, the Tyler Pitlick family) if he doesn’t get enough games this season. Stan Bowman could trade him in the deal for a new defender, but I like Emberson and he’s improving as the games roll along.
At five-on-five, Emberson’s Corsi (55 percent) and Fenwick plus shot share (54 percent) are No. 4 among defensemen.
His 27 percent goal share in the discipline is the worst among blue. His his expected goal share is 56 percent, fourth on the team among blue.
I like Emberson for many reasons, including youth and adaptability. His shifts are not consistent because of the rotation system currently being deployed by Edmonton’s coaching staff. Emberson is effective even with the gaps in shifts.
He was 0-4 goals at five-on-five in his first two games with Edmonton, 3-4 since. He performs well with Brett Kulak as his partner, but is 3-6 goals with the veteran (62 percent expected goals). Here’s a look at Puck IQ’s player card for him:
Small sample size alert here, but his Dangerous Fenwick (smart Corsi, like expected goals) is solid. He does well against elites and poorly against the soft parade relative to his teammates, but these are very small samples and should be judged unreliable. We can see trending, though. He is also a victim of poor save percentage and a low shooting percentage during his time on ice.
Its taken the Oilers 15 games but it looks like they’re playing for real now.
Vancouver looks like a pretty good team, too.
Game wasn’t perfect but it’s nice to see the basics of the team coming together. The PP is starting to work. That’s a relief.
Wow. 7 Goals. Well done boys! Hopefully this starts the offence rolling. Pk goal against again a downer. Kill % keeps on dropping. This needs to be fixed. Big division win! Keeps us in the mix.
Not sure why Darnel batted that right into the slot.
Otherwise a quiet in a good way game
Happy as anything with this current lineup.
Thanks, Bouch! We could use some free pk practice, buddy.
Always team first, that Bouch…
See? Now we have the tape to figure out how to do it better next time.
Good stuff. But, for reals, let’s get a bit better on the pk, ok?
I was right about Emberson.
You notice him in a good way.
Let’s go Oiles chant just now was as loud as in Edmonton. Amazing
Love how the default of the smart old third line is to get the puck behind the net and battle. Scrum it up. Win a puck battle and look for a play.
One of the most heartening part of this game is the Oilers continuing to come in waves after the got the 6th and 7th….
Tuned in at 6-2 1st game this year.
49 made a cool play to stop the Canuck breakaway.
90 Perry looks great. Positionally also passes the puck like a boss. I hope he retires an Oiler with a cup win.
Drai and Mcd get paid too much to be engaged with after finals but Draisaitl I think scored the 1st goal earlier.
Nurse? lol his contract can get him traded in 3-4 more seasons.
Oilers as a team play like they have been in the finals. next stop cup and Oilers with their superstars have about 10 years to do it once?
Come on.
Now we gotta get Podz a goal
Finally a non vezina like performance from the opposition G.
Liked knobby’s TO call early. Underutilized
He was trying until it was 5-2 – a couple 10-bell saves – then he leaked two terrible ones.
Strong lateral movement there from Skinner….
Really loud ‘Stuuuuuu’ chant in Rodger’s after that save. Wow lots of Oiler fans here.
Vik has finally found his wheels. I’m assuming this is the guy people are happy we signed? I wasn’t really getting it.
Always been a fan of Kulak, one of our best value for money signings. However, I never expected that at this point in the season he would be tied second highest goal scorer.
Connor Brown has looked utterly dangerous this game. Could be a key for the Oilers finding more offense
Imagine if he (and a couple other vets) started to use the upper half of the net.
Wasn’t he snakebit last season?
I think he just took a lot longer to recover from his injury and time off. He was a key performer for us in the playoffs in my opinion.
3 assists for Janny tonight.
How’s that taste, VanCity?
Is this this year’s version of us beating the Sharks to awaken our final form?
BOOM!!! Brownie!!! Great drive and shot, buddy!!!
We are an attacking team!!!
Lankinen had played well it was a 5-2 game – two awful goals to turn it in to a laugher.
3 points for JanGenerationalmark
Lankinen is getting lit up like a Christmas tree.
That PP goal… Connor smiled. I did too. When Connor smiles, it’s good news… something has changed.
Great neural zone strip by Wright who then sets up Berglund in the very high slot who rips one home for a 3-1 lead.
Also – there should be nothing exceptional about this effort.
They can play this way every game. It is still far from perfect but beats just about everybody just about all of the time.
They have played this way 75 percent of the season.
The talking heads can spin a story. They can build pretty narratives, write a tale or two. Tonight a bunch of shots that should go in, have gone in, and maybe a couple that shouldn’t. Every other night the opposing team had Prime Hasek in net while edm had a suitor tutor in net on the PK.
Variance is a bitch.
Shooter tutor*
Not even close.
There is a fundamental difference between people viewing hockey where goals are primarily on execution and shot choice, versus people who don’t see it this way.
This team hasn’t been focused and executing whatever. Tonight they are. And they’re getting to the middle. This game is nothing like the Vegas game, or the Jersey game, or a handful of others.
BOOM!!! Kulak gets rewarded for following the play!!! Finally!!!
3 points for McGenerational
How much is Kulak paying to win the Norris?
Nuge still looks a half-step behind at moments but his offensive awareness and deft passing skills have been on full display tonight.
OK now this is fun! Kulak with his 4 th of the year!
We want 10!
Oof Lankinen…
Total domination by Connor McDavid.
3 PPs! Hallelujah!
And a few bounces around the net
BOOM!!! Connor goes to the net for a greasy one!!!! Taking notes from the bottom six, eh?
Mcdavid has been exceptional
He’s had a good third. Average before that
The PP has finally woken up.
Eat shit Canucks!
That’s better.
I think that was Henriques first assist of the year.
Great work and skating by Arvi to draw that penalty. Hes coming on, now.
Big time effort from Henrique to eat that crosscheck in the slot and get the puck to Brown for the primary.
Great drive by Arvy to draw a PP.
bottom two lines have been absolutely hustling tonight
BOOM!!! Brownie rewarded for the whole third line working they’re asses off!!!
Janmark with his fingerprints all over that shift
and an insurance one at that….
Eat shit Seaweed
C BROWN!