Predators at Oilers, G17 2024-25

Photo by Karen Aloisio

Some real talk online yesterday about Stuart Skinner and the Edmonton Oilers future in goal. Even though this blog is devoted to the math of the game, many posters in the comments section were more than willing to throw Skinner overboard in favour of, well, damn near anyone else. Hey, I understand. Goalies can be frustrating.

The Oilers roster is uniquely designed in goal, as the club has just $3.6 million cap dollars devoted to a vital position. I am not in favour of dealing Skinner, and recent numbers suggest it’s completely unnecessary, but if you’re absolutely focused on ridding yourself of Stuart Skinner, then tonight offers an interesting opportunity.

The Athletic article today is about Connor McDavid and the Art Ross Trophy. He owns a pile, and should be adding more based on history. Article is here.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER

• At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
• On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
• On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
• Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
• November results: 2-2-0, 4 points in 4 games
• Oilers in 2024-25: 8-7-1, 17 points in 16 games

The Oilers have owned the Preds in recent seasons, with Leon Draisaitl using Nashville as his own personal punching bag. A night with the Predators in town, during this era, is kind of the opposite of those nights when Jacques Lemaire’s Minnesota Wild would come for a visit. That Nashville sound is music for these Oilers.

CONNOR MCDAVID 1000

There’s a good chance Connor McDavid scores point number 1,000 in tonight’s game. It’s an amazing feat and reflects his dominance over a long period. We knew he was extraordinary from the start, but even those lofty expectations have been exceeded. With very few detractors (although there are some), the comments section on this board represent a decade of hockey shock and awe. He is a gift to a city from the hockey Gods and is giving a new generation of Oilers fans a unique opportunity.

I was listening to the Jason Gregor Show yesterday, and Connor Halley spoke about the fact that it’s the first time since he became aware of hockey that an Oilers player will reach 1,000 points for his career. That’s important. Oilers fans of a certain age can read about the 1980’s but cannot experience it. For that reason, and many others, tonight is special.

TRADING FOR JUUSE SAROS

If Stan Bowman determines that Stuart Skinner is not fit to be the Oilers starter, it follows that the Predator’s Juuse Saros would be a reasonable target. His cap hit this season ($5 million) is double that of Skinner, but the Oilers will be able to satisfy that increase at the deadline.

Now, Saros has a new contract, $7.740 million times eight (!!!) that kicks in next year. It includes a NMC, so the Oilers window to acquire him includes the trade deadline and little else. HOW would the Oilers satisfy the cap increase? Trading Skinner to Nashville gets you $2.6 million off the cap, trading Evander Kane an additional $5.125 million and his no-trade eases March 1 (the deadline is March 8).

Now, you can’t sign Evan Bouchard long term, and Sarros is 30 in April, so those are considerations. I’m not certain the club can afford to add another enormous contract attached to an older player, but goaltending is an important position. Let’s look at the two players involved in this trade (I assume Matthew Savoie or another first-round selection would be included. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, here are their respective five-on-five save percentages:

• Saros: .921 in 141 games
• Skinner: .918 in 120 games

We don’t know if Saros will perform at the same levels in front of the Oilers as he did in Nashville, but Saros is a proven goaltender and many Oilers fans would approve of such a deal.

For me, the anger towards Stuart Skinner is a good test for the organization. Daryl Katz is an owner who wants to win, and spends to the cap each season. Like all fans, he can get frustrated and I believe there have been times in the past when ownership pressured management to make roster decisions that were ill-advised. I have no proof, beyond the transaction records for Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland.

I do know that teams I have cheered for in the past have done unusual things because of ownership. Former Montreal Expos owner Charles Bronfman admitted to forcing his general manager to trade a talented young second base prospect (Tony Bernazard) because he grew tired of the youngster’s mistakes in the field. Bernazard would go on to have a long and productive MLB career. It happens.

Organizations that win don’t listen to fans who are upset with events in a small sample. Does this sound like the Edmonton Oilers? I am not in favour of this trade idea, and believe it would be a damn fool thing to do.

A busy show today on the Lowdown, we begin at noon and prattle on for two solid hours on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us and we’ll get the Predators view from some Nashville Cats, too. We’ll preview TNF and talk NBA and NCAA football. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.