Photo by Karen Aloisio
Some real talk online yesterday about Stuart Skinner and the Edmonton Oilers future in goal. Even though this blog is devoted to the math of the game, many posters in the comments section were more than willing to throw Skinner overboard in favour of, well, damn near anyone else. Hey, I understand. Goalies can be frustrating.
The Oilers roster is uniquely designed in goal, as the club has just $3.6 million cap dollars devoted to a vital position. I am not in favour of dealing Skinner, and recent numbers suggest it’s completely unnecessary, but if you’re absolutely focused on ridding yourself of Stuart Skinner, then tonight offers an interesting opportunity.
The Athletic article today is about Connor McDavid and the Art Ross Trophy. He owns a pile, and should be adding more based on history. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 2-2-0, 4 points in 4 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 8-7-1, 17 points in 16 games
The Oilers have owned the Preds in recent seasons, with Leon Draisaitl using Nashville as his own personal punching bag. A night with the Predators in town, during this era, is kind of the opposite of those nights when Jacques Lemaire’s Minnesota Wild would come for a visit. That Nashville sound is music for these Oilers.
CONNOR MCDAVID 1000
There’s a good chance Connor McDavid scores point number 1,000 in tonight’s game. It’s an amazing feat and reflects his dominance over a long period. We knew he was extraordinary from the start, but even those lofty expectations have been exceeded. With very few detractors (although there are some), the comments section on this board represent a decade of hockey shock and awe. He is a gift to a city from the hockey Gods and is giving a new generation of Oilers fans a unique opportunity.
I was listening to the Jason Gregor Show yesterday, and Connor Halley spoke about the fact that it’s the first time since he became aware of hockey that an Oilers player will reach 1,000 points for his career. That’s important. Oilers fans of a certain age can read about the 1980’s but cannot experience it. For that reason, and many others, tonight is special.
TRADING FOR JUUSE SAROS
If Stan Bowman determines that Stuart Skinner is not fit to be the Oilers starter, it follows that the Predator’s Juuse Saros would be a reasonable target. His cap hit this season ($5 million) is double that of Skinner, but the Oilers will be able to satisfy that increase at the deadline.
Now, Saros has a new contract, $7.740 million times eight (!!!) that kicks in next year. It includes a NMC, so the Oilers window to acquire him includes the trade deadline and little else. HOW would the Oilers satisfy the cap increase? Trading Skinner to Nashville gets you $2.6 million off the cap, trading Evander Kane an additional $5.125 million and his no-trade eases March 1 (the deadline is March 8).
Now, you can’t sign Evan Bouchard long term, and Sarros is 30 in April, so those are considerations. I’m not certain the club can afford to add another enormous contract attached to an older player, but goaltending is an important position. Let’s look at the two players involved in this trade (I assume Matthew Savoie or another first-round selection would be included. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, here are their respective five-on-five save percentages:
- Saros: .921 in 141 games
- Skinner: .918 in 120 games
We don’t know if Saros will perform at the same levels in front of the Oilers as he did in Nashville, but Saros is a proven goaltender and many Oilers fans would approve of such a deal.
For me, the anger towards Stuart Skinner is a good test for the organization. Daryl Katz is an owner who wants to win, and spends to the cap each season. Like all fans, he can get frustrated and I believe there have been times in the past when ownership pressured management to make roster decisions that were ill-advised. I have no proof, beyond the transaction records for Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland.
I do know that teams I have cheered for in the past have done unusual things because of ownership. Former Montreal Expos owner Charles Bronfman admitted to forcing his general manager to trade a talented young second base prospect (Tony Bernazard) because he grew tired of the youngster’s mistakes in the field. Bernazard would go on to have a long and productive MLB career. It happens.
Organizations that win don’t listen to fans who are upset with events in a small sample. Does this sound like the Edmonton Oilers? I am not in favour of this trade idea, and believe it would be a damn fool thing to do.
A busy show today on the Lowdown, we begin at noon and prattle on for two solid hours on Sports 1440. Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation will join us and we’ll get the Predators view from some Nashville Cats, too. We’ll preview TNF and talk NBA and NCAA football. I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
Got a kick out of this comment about Bob Stauffer on Reddit:
“My boss actually grew up with Bob Stauffer and played hockey with him as a kid. Apparently even as 9 year old he would just rattle off hockey stats non stop, and while carpooling on long drives to/from games with his teammates (and their parents) it would be both entertaining and annoying. I think he ended up in the right spot in life, and that satisfies me.”
Shea Webber is in the Hall of Fame
Alexander Mogilny is not in the Hall of Fame.
I just had to write it down I’m having difficulty believing it.
Do people actually think Bouchard has been struggling this season? And if so, how?
His fancies are incredible. Goal share is excellent. What am I missing?
The dude is going to make some bad plays because he literally always has the puck.
Bouch is an elite 2-way play driving d-man so, even when he struggles (by his standards) he is still a massive positive out there.
Yes, I think he is struggling, as he tends to do in the first 4-8 weeks of every season. His “puck skills” have not been as polished and there are more “bobbles” than when he’s at his best and there are times where he gets lost in the defensive zone.
Thankfully, he such an elite force that drives play to such an extent that the mistakes are minuscule in the overall game.
Coach suggest that they are likely to rotate players through Leon’s right wing as opposed to moving a recent bottom six player up full time.
My problem with Stu is that his numbers will recover as the Oilers do. His comparables then start with an 8. I would trade him before paying that.
No to Saros at that term. Go the Osgood route and find a fairly paid vet.
The Oilers have two complete playoffs ahead of them before they have to worry about what they have to pay Skinner. Worrying about what Skinner’s next contract might be at this point is ridiculous.
If the Oilers don’t win a Cup in either of those two seasons, then one does not even have to worry about signing Skinner again. Skinner will have had his three strikes.
Listen, you can expect more from Skinner and still appreciate his value. I think it’s unfair to assume that any negative verbal on the goalie with .881 SV% is “acid.” It’s also fairly clear that by other statistical metrics that he is not doing well, no matter how you want to break down the year thus far. It is also fair that the D’s job is to suppress scoring chances, and that is the goalie’s job to stop them. Taking the PK as an example, if your team has the lowest GA/60 expected but are allowing the highest GA/60, are you really going to blame the penalty killers? You can blame regression, but blaming the players in front of the goalie seems wildly unfair in that scenario.
We can also acknowledge that there are many goalies who have backstopped their team to a Stanley Cup Final that were making relatively low salaries. By the same token that Nurse is making too much, we still have basic expectations for a player. Same can be said for Skinner irrespective of his salary.
I guess the summary of this is that it’s okay to have nuance in the discussion of a player without being lumped into a group
Nice post. Agreed.
FWIW $7.7M is a bargain for a #1 goalie.
Not when the player is 29 and the contract extension is 8 years
If the oilers are going to trade for a goalie, they should look for the next Saros. Don’t acquire the current one (with huge cap hit). It’s tough because teams don’t move off these guys often.
I know Carter Hart has the blemished past but I’d like that move, but I see it happening in the off-season when there is more certainty around his status.
I would rather keep Stu in a proper 1A/1B scenario than deal him. The guy they could improve on is Pickard. I like to have someone like Pickard in the AHL for injury cover, but it would be nice to have a higher upside goalie pushing stu for the crease.
Shouldn’t Oliver Rodrigue be under discussion?
2024/25 W4 L1 1OTL .929 2.33GAA
2023/24 W18 12L 5OTL .916 2.72GAA
Looks promising as a 24 year old.
Rodrigue did not do himself any favours with an absolutely brutal preseason this year. You don’t get many chances, especially when you are 24 yrs old.
24 is young for a goalie.
He couldn’t stop a beachball this organization needs to start filling the chambers with quality. They’re out there just need to identify and find them ASAP. This organization is not going to blow their wad on a 7 milllion dollar goalie they need to find a unknown on the cheap that has game like Vegas found a Hill that now has a Cup to his name.
Let’s not trade Devon again!
You mean Devan.
Not even for Airdrie and $20?
I’m giving the Skinner and the rest of the team the benefit of the doubt right now. McDavid looks to be rounding into form, some of the other forwards who have been snakebitten/sleepwalking are looking better and getting the results we expected, the team has looked more involved early in games, the defence is 2nd in the league in suppressing HD scoring chances (knighttown provided that tidbit further down), and the PK just went a game without giving up a goal (!). The team is looking better overall, so I’m being patient for a little longer… see how these positive developments hold up.
Philly is loaded up with young goalies if the situation with Carter Hart turns out favorably for him.
Worth looking there for a #1b with high ceiling potential.
My wife is a Flyers fan we watch most of their games. Ersson is really struggling to find the range. Hopefully that happens soon. Not related but we have always liked Travis Konecny. So many good players in the NHL. I guess that’s why they call it the best league in the world. 🙂
Not that I’d want him, but how about Carter Hart? Edmonton is “Reclamation Destination” after all
They better not take the Preds lightly.
High octane teams are always going to expose goalies, it’s feature of the style not a bug.
I’d keep an eye on his past history, and bet on Stuart’s continued development in pattern that resembles a stair case. Seeing him take a giant leap forward come playoffs wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
You forgot Steve Tambellini’s drafting record, *cough*Yakupov*cough*.
Plenty to criticize the man about, but Yakupov not still being McDavid’s winger scoring in boatloads is on that dummy Eakins.
I blame Matt MacPherson more than Eakins.
And I’m not even saying the scouts (who wanted Ryan Murray) were right — I wanted to trade down for an extra 1st round pick and get Dumba — but the point of the comment was that the Yakupov directive was another moment when the owner involved himself in hockey ops decisions and impacted the team.
Nobody was going to pay a premium for the first pick that year. There were a boatload of high end D, and teams were willing to sit where they were at and get a quality D.
Yes, and the Oilers were far too enamoured with their 1OV picks than smart about them. Not every year has a strong top cohort. Murray had the Team Canada pedigree, but a team on top of pro and amateur scouting should look at the kids, and if it’s not a franchise type player, perhaps the better plan is get more assets and look down the draft as you said, or get an established player, of do both
Yakupov was not going to be make it in the NHL it was pretty obvious after they took him. He had talent, but was a way out there as a person. Nice person, but not cut out for NHL stardom, even if he saw it like that. For a smaller, not that fast player, not physical, uninterested in the NHL style of game, and most critically lacking an elite shot or play making skills, wasn’t happening. Second opinions agreed. He didn’t even light up the KHL
The only way the coaches could have ‘not ruined’ him was let him be a cherry picker. They were trying to get away from that at the time
Oilersnation has an interesting graphic up on social media that shows Yakupov scored a grand total of three (3!) goals assisted by Connor.
He’s handily outdone by the likes of tweeners like Ty Rattie (5), Matt Benning (7), Josh Archibald (8), Drake Caggiula (10), and even end of career veteran Mark Letestu (12) far outshine Yakupov playing with Connor.
You watch their extremely limited time together or not?
He fit beautifully.
Watching a coach kill a player’s love for the game is a disturbing damn thing. Especially how much he loved it.
This would not be a draft pick that I’d choose to say was a bad one. Picks 1,2 and 3 are all out of the league now.
Ryan Murray couldn’t stay healthy for the life of him and never because a top dman.
Galchenyuk was injured the entire draft year basically and couldn’t stick around with any team.
If you’re suggesting he had drafted out of the top 3, it wasn’t till the 5th pick that a good player was chosen and truly successful that no one was saying should go first overall. He wasn’t even the 2nd Dman drafted.
I said trade down and get an extra pick, not to go off the board with the 1OV pick.
Yakupov was the consensus pick, but he didn’t fit with how EDM was built at the time.
And to be fair, I disagreed with each of the 1OV picks until 2015 (Seguin, Larsson or Landeskog, Dumba+) but none of that really counts for a hill of beans.
Yakupov was sewered by the coach.
Who are the experts? Save percentage is save percentage.
Every goalie plays in all situations.
Oilers have consistently been one of the top teams in the league for all situations analytics.
An elite goalie puts this team over the top.
Skinner career regular season:
134 GP / 2.73 GAA / .907
Saros career regular season:
363 GP / 2.63 GAA / .917
Skinner career playoffs:
35 GP / 2.83 GAA / .894
Saros career playoffs:
23 GP / 2.45 GAA / .911
Career averages like this don’t normalize for differences in goaltender performance +/- relative to league average save percentages by season.
Saros with the longer term career during a time of higher league save percentage benefits him when looking at raw numbers alone.
I don’t think there’s a non oilers fan that would take Skinner over Saros
In a vacuum, sure. I was stumping for Saros before Rinne retired.
But Saros, today, with that contract, at his age, is a big nope for me with this team as currently constructed.
Put another way, what are you willing to give up for Saros?
I don’t think a non oilers fan or oilers fan would take Saros over being able to extend your 24 year old #1 Dman.
2021-22 regular season to present:
Skinner:
133 GP / .903
Saros:
208 GP / .914
League Average: .904
Was anyone truly arguing that Skinner is a better goalie than Saros?
Now normalize for quality of defense corps and systems play…
I’m not suggesting Saros wouldn’t improve the rate of timely saves and lower the GAA, whatsoever.
I’m simply suggesting at this time, with that contract, given his age, Saros is not a good fit on our team.
Wrong aisle for sure. Aren’t we tired of paying a ton for rep on the precipice?
The Oilers have been among top teams in analytics since that season – always ahead of NSH.
To your point about the contract and assets to give up, I get it.
I guess we wait and see what the Skinner contract comes in at.
Coach confirms Arvidsson will not play tonight and they are going 11/7.
Coach expects Arvy to play on the weekend.
———————————-
I think they may move Perry up to Drai’s wing but, for me, I think I’d give Connor Brown the shot – more of a “stylistic” replacement for Arvy – more quickness.
There is also the possibility of moving Skinner to Drai’s wing and Podz to the right side?
I wouldn’t be fully against moving Stecher to forward and running a 12/6.
Scratch Nurse/Dermott and go full time:
Nurse/Kulak
Dermott/Emberson
Skinner may want to show them he’s more than a fourth liner.
He ends up there or in the doghouse with every coach he’s ever had. Usually doesn’t happen this fast.
In his defence about 6 of them were in Buffalo and that is a tire fire of dod proportions.
Arguably Skinner was one of the top five reasons that Buffalo was a tire fire of dod proportions.
I think Brown had a good last game, but honestly hes more of an offensive shutdown specialist for his own line. But prove me wrong Mr Brown.
I would go with Skinner. It is the reason you acquired him, it is his strength, play to his strengths.
Plus, I think Nashville will be a handful tonight.
Any news if Pickard is starting?
Pickard will start Thursday’s home matchup against the Nashville Predators, Jason Gregor of Sports 1440 Edmonton reports.
I figured he’s 2-0 against Nashville batting .945SV with a 1.50GA. With a strong performance tonight it should take the heat off our goaltending woes before heading out East.
I figure goal is what it is and that Both Stu and Pick are capable of winning playoff games. It’s more a question of when to call on whom, when to let which struggle, etcetera. Sure I’d rather have Hellebuyck between the pipes but the good ship Oiler sailed past such options long ago.
100% – I am not a huge Skinner fan but as he gets more reps the tendency to go into staue mode is fading. I am seeing way more Fuhr in the saves he is making this year than in last year. It seems the 2024 playoffs were a wake up call.
A bigger consideration than “can we get goalie X” is whether or not goalie X will thrive in the Oiler’s system. There are numerous examples of goalies traded at the deadline or earlier whose style was not a fit for the team they joined, and they added no competitive edge to the team. I’d argue that a goalie like Saros coming from a defensively disciplined team like Nashville would flounder in Edmonton. You would want to find a goalie who is performing well with another defensively loose team who could step in to assist the Oilers either as a backup or 1A. Blackwood was mentioned, and I would second him as a potential target for the Oilers. Otherwise I don’t think there is much out there which would be an improvement on Skinner.
Again, not true. Why are you saying Nashville is a defensively disciplined team when they’ve given up 50% more HD Scoring chances?
I don’t have the ability to break down the system the Preds use, but traditionally they are a more button down team than the Oilers. I am making the point that trading for a goalie is rarely the silver bullet people claim. Dwayne Roloson is the last mid-season goalie trade I can think of that materially impacted the receiving team. I don’t think Saros is the solution, especially at the price.
Most of Saros career they have been a good defensive team. This is his worst year statistically at .906 save percentage and last year was his previous worst at .911.
They are probably the worst because the defence has gotten worse the last 2 years. They did trade Ekholm 2 years ago and sort of planned on going on a rebuild.
you want a goalie under 6 feet for 7 million + wow come on skinners a bargain
Think of Osgood, they never called him Osgreat 😆
Osgood was quite great in the playoffs
Yeah I agree, the stature of his reputation doesn’t match his achievements.
To me it reeks of people falsely equivocating Leon’s success with playing with Connor.
Here’s an idea:
What if we were to trade for Saros as a rental with the intention of flipping him between the SCF and July 1, before his NMC kicks in?
Here’s a 2nd idea:
The CBA language talks about retained salary in terms of standard player contracts. Technically Saros’s SPC ends this summer and a new one begins. Is it possible per the CBA for the Predators to retain on only the remaining year of his current contract?
What if Saros gets injured in the playoffs, and is not healthy to be traded before July 1st.
The Predators already have their 3 allowed retention spots filled by Matt Duchene, Kyle Turris and Mattias Ekholm.
Rather call Grier and acquire Blackwood, that Saros extension is hell.
That might be a sensible solution. He makes $2.35m and would be UFA next season Edmonton would be paying $4.95M, which is only $1.35M more for the new and improved goalie tandem. What would Mike Grier want in return?
Future considerations and shoulder surgery lol
No thanks. Having a decent run of small sample sizes but previous 4 season quite poor. Similar to Vejmelka
He’s got a .910 SV% so far this season 9 games played for the Sharks.
In 205 games he has 78 wins 11 shut outs 3.08 GAA & .904 SV%
And was in a position to be a starter in Jersey and crapped the bed
Kind of like what Skinner’s doing. They could battle for the starter in Edmonton. At least it would be an upgrade on Pickard.
New Jersey has had 1 winning season in a decade, that’s not on Blackwood.
His best individual season New Jersey finished 26th.
If we’re going to discuss the goaltending let’s at least agree on a set of facts.
All of these narratives around “weak defense” are simply untrue. The Oilers are 2nd in the NHL in High Danger shots against behind only Vancouver who has played 2 less games. They’ve given up only 67.
In contrast they’ve taken 120 high danger shots; basically double what they’ve given up the result is that TheirHD SC% is basically off the charts at over 64%; 5 full points ahead of the second place team.
And for all of that they are only +2 in this game state.
There can be no debate that the goaltending to this point has held them back greatly and is the weakest part of this team.
It’s what you do with that fact that becomes interesting.
1. Do you basically say “you get what you pay for” as Bruce does? Bruce is correct of course. Paying for and getting weak goaltending is a strategy. This is the old Red Wings model.
2. Do you acknowledge his struggles rather than ignoring them but then hope he returns (or finds new) championship caliber form?
3. Do you look at this as the most dominant team in the league that’s possibly a goaltending away from being a heavy favorite for the Stanley Cup.
if they can keep this 64% HD SC% up I think I go with option 3
I agree a mistake prone team benefits from a goalie who makes some saves he shouldn’t, it’s the Oilers way after all
I have long said the Oilers break stats, because they are extreme at both ends. Stats like a nice medium, that’s not the Oilers
Gregor was saying yesterday that Woodley said Stu has the worst Rush SV% in the league, but the rest isn’t bad. There are no easy answers with this team I think
Why can’t they make the correct defensive reads as a group at a higher level, no matter who is on the team? I suppose it gets better as the players get better by experience or being brought in, but they still give up some doozies, usually every game
Why do they not finish more chances given they have elite talent and are supposed to be a skilled group and create so many opportunities? To me it’s part who the players are, but also how they approach things in the N and O zones offensively
I mean I guess it’s possible that somehow the Oilers are doing something so bizarre that it breaks the numbers but I’d say there’s a 95% chance that’s a narrative. Occum’s Razor would suggest giving up 67 HD shots in 16 games is a sign that this is a good team playing a sound and structured game and needs a few more saves. I’d suggest that if you watched the Penguins play a few more games you’d see the difference.
All high danger shots against are not created equal. Other teams do not need many high danger shots against the Oilers, because the Oilers mental blunders (when they are in an uber loose phase early in the season) are so egregious, other teams don’t need many, and don’t accumulate the 2nd and 3rd chance high danger shots immediately after.
The forwards and D, when the Oilers are loose, make egregious basic coverage mistakes, at a rate other teams just don’t make.
Bouchard, for three seasons, in a row, has started the season with his head up his you know where. Lost out there defensively, and shooting into the shot blockers pads.
Again, I’d suggest that’s another made up explanation. So breaking down low danger, medium danger and high danger STILL isn’t enough for you. You think there’s a subset of ultra high danger scoring chances we don’t have access to but if we could see those we’d see that the oilers are breaking down far more than other teams.
I also think they’ll regress to the meat, but you’d like to see them bury more of those HD chances they’ve earned.
Potting a few more of those chances completely changes the narrative arc of the season.
Literally every player has better results with Bouchard on the ice. Including McD and Drai. He is not perfect but he has been the Oilers most important player so far.
Oilers with Bouch on: 14-10
Oilers with no Bouch: 17-20
Bouch with his head up his ass is still pretty good.
You’re both right, Bouchard is pretty good, and he’s too in love with the Bouch bomb being drilled into shins. It’s the #1 problem with the powerplay.
They need to engage a lot more deception in that PP. Like any great PP would have to. The league gets your book pretty quickly if it’s a mission critical thing to defend
Unless it’s Connor breaking the structure with his movement it can be painfully predictable. They have the talent to still score a lot, but to me you want to get to where no matter what they try to do you will counter that after a PP or two, adjust. That’s what great players do, not just keep trying to smash through what isn’t really working. They have the players to do that, but they need to be more tactically deceptive
What made Wayne what he was is this. He would relentlessly pick you apart. Double team him? He would skate to another opponent getting 3 in the same area, and could still get the puck to the undefended guys. Covering the passing options? He’d score himself. PK running great? He’d rag the puck until he pulled you out of structure and find the weak side, Coffey, or the open player. All of it – his office behind the net using it as a barricade, using his awareness (and I think the glass) to no look pass to open players. Full on, all of the time
On this possibly momentous day, I think Connor has another level in him along those lines. But he will need the fellas to pick up what he’s putting down. For guys like Connor and Wayne it must be like playing with guys a league down at times
This is so true. This is the 4-3 team in a 3-2 league thing LT was mentioning.
1) Advanced stats on scoring are great(I am a fan of advanced stats). That means nothing if you’re not actually scoring goals for games at a time. 8 of their 15 games the team has scored 2 or less goals. No matter how good your goaltending is, you can’t win that way.
2) Who is the goalie that is available and is able to fit in the cap situation of the Oilers? As well what is the other team being tempted by to actually trade that goalie?
Although I admit I don’t think Skinner can lead the Oilers to the Cup I do think he’s a good goalie. My issue here is he almost always gets a pass. It’s never his fault. The islanders game is a great example. Outshooting them 2-1 he gives up the tying goal. Then gives up 2 late for the tie. Everyone is at fault but Skinner. Many here just don’t hold him accountable as they do certain players.
What was Skinner’s save percentage on Nov 14 last year?
Did he look any better in the first month as he has this season?
He ended up over .905 (and has an NHL history above that).
I think it’s reasonable to suggest that Skinner likely improves his play over the rest of the regular season
On US Thanksgiving (18 GP by the team, 13 by Skinner) his Sv% was .865.
the rest of the season he posted .916, Pickard .910. Between them they won 44 of the remaining 64 games.
Seem like S. Skinner and Bouchard have the same “starting the season late” condition.
We have more of a track record on Bouchard find his game (and a high end game) than Skinner but I think we can be reasonably confident in a bit of a increase in level of play from S. Skinner.
Don’t worry about Stu he will rebound. Edmonton would have to restructure their salary structure, which might not be too bad of an idea. I don’t think trading Skinner is the smart thing to do. But by getting a true #1 goaltender and have Skinner to back up might improve the goaltending situation. It would have to be money in & money out, so they would be robbing Mary to pay Peter, possibly creating a deficiency somewhere else in the lineup. I thought the play was to trade for defensive help and the goals will come. Because really with Stu in goal they just need to defend better and score more goals.
Totally.
Skinner wins just about every game where the Oilers score 6.
What about that Hall of Fame goalie out in Minnesota? No not Fleury, but Jesper Wallstedt. 🙂
I said yesterday that Stu Skinner is a good goalie, he is just not elite. But in his short career here he has never had an elite or really good D. The Oil have been lacking a really good 2 nd pairing his entire time here. Right now the PK stinks, and that isn’t helping. Skinner is a little inconsistent and when he is hot he is very close to Elite. For the $ the Oil have invested in Goalies they are better than that $ spent ( that is good).
As for Saros, yes he is better than Skinner and his D isn’t quite as good as it has been in the past. So it shows how good he is. Sure he would be an upgrade on Skinner but as you say LT it would be very Costly as the Oilers would have to move cash out .
As for trading Kane, this team is very soft right now and it would be nice to see Kane back 100% healthy. A guy like Kane healthy , would be a huge need in the playoffs with possibly another add at the deadline of a tough bottom six player, unless they trade for that #3/4 D man who is a shutdown tougher type.
Kane would be missed very much if traded and he actually is right now.
I would hope the Oil finally try to get an actual 2nd pairing D before they even attempt to trade Skinner, if that is even on the radar.
Listening to EST this AM. They had Gadzic on and he and Lt Eric and Frazier all agreed that Kane is missed by this team. They brought up a line of Podkolzin, Drai and Kane and how hard that line would be to play against. Man that would be fun.
A 28 year old Kane is what this team needs. Kane in his current form is not able to stay in the lineup and I would move him if able
Disagree, the guy played in the playoffs and especially against Vancouver basically with his core torn to shit. He was a huge part of that Vancouver win with his hitting. The guy is a beast. A completely healthy Kane will be a huge boost
And is this healthy Kane in the room with you now?
No but he got the surgeries he needed to fix his injuries and is taking the recovery time to get to 100%.
There’s a lot to unpack here but as I was watching the ISLES game I was impressed at Drai-Podklolzin ability to be tough w/ the puck in the ozone and control the play. Unfortunately, Arvidson is not that big and strong. Healthy Kane would help and a Kane-Drai-Pod line could be really great in the playoffs.
This is the best way to balance the team, IMO.
Someone to repair the saloon door would go a long way.
No goaltender will look good behind the McDavid Oilers when they are playing lousy team defense, well except maybe peak Corey Price, peak Shesterkin, or peak Vasilevsky.
When the McDavid Oilers tighten up their team defense as they have be prone to do later in the regular season, and in the playoffs, a good but not great goalie will be sufficient, as Skinner demonstrated last year in the playoffs. Skinner was the main reason the OIlers won the Dallas series.
The Oilers are still in egregious defensive mistake mode. Fewer than during the first five games, but they still have not reached a contending level of mental consistency defensively this year, where zero is the only acceptable number of mental blunders.
And they undervalued Desharnais’s contribution to team physicality and the PK. And well, that Broberg was actually a pretty good PK defender also. i.e. both had/have significant wingspan and very good sticks.
Team is dead last in GSAA. Team defense helps. But goalies need to make a save
The Oilers gave up 3 high danger shots all last game (2 at 5 on 5) and none of them were 5-alarm chances.
What’s with you calling the Oilers the “McDavid Oilers” when you are speaking negatively of the Oilers?
lol, the Oilers are missing Vinny, but as typical you completely ignore Ceci who is not only a substantially better player, but also played far more than Vinny.
I can’t imagine acquiring a player like Sarros with a major cap hit going forward is even a thought with management.
I also think that Sarros went from one of the most underrated players in the league to one of the most overrated players.
Stu likely comes in around $5.5MM in his next deal AFTER next season. Unless he explodes.
If the Oilers are going to upgrade in goal they need to find an affordable backup. Saros or similar would nuke the Oilers cap structure. Imagine the Nurse and Saros contracts on the same team. Yikes.
I don’t think the problem is with Skinner, I think if the Oilers do anything in net it should be replace Pickard with a guy that could push Skinner for his job. Skinner’s kind of a Harris in that he got the job because plan A crapped out, and there’s been no competition for him for the starter’s job since. His backup needs to do more than step in and give him rest, he’s got to push him, he’s got to threaten to take his job.
Kobb on with Stauff last night that they will go 11/7 if Arvy can’t go. Will find out this morning.
LT, I am curious why you only focus on 5v5 save percentages? A goalie is an important part of a PK and owns at least some of the results of a PK.
Experts tell me that five-on-five save percentage is the purest measure of a goaltender. Part of that comes from the fact penalty killing depends on each man to deliver.
Plus it’s a matter of sample size and how much importance to place. At five-on-five, we can quickly reach a point where the numbers can be trusted. PK is not the same.
Just as it would have been silly to credit Skinner for the outstanding PK in the playoffs, it is equally ridiculous to bury him now.
He needs to be better on the PK. Everyone on the PK needs to be better. I expect that will regress.
Thanks. That is fair.
Exactly why I prefer all situations SV% to 5v5.
Plus 5v5 leaves out game situations that all goaltenders play in roughly equal proportions.
Yes. I also prefer all situations. Saros has been great on the PK. Skinner not so much. I am sure some of it is team effects but some is definitely the goalie.
Issue with this is not every team plays the exact same amount on the PP and PK there is over a 100-150 penalties (if not more) taken by the lowest to the highest team.
Oilers PK Sv% in the playoffs was .953. I expected That to regress, & it did. Hard.
with just a few shots per game it is more volatile than 5v5 Sv%, & now we have seen examples on both sides of the mean in very recent times. Further regression is inevitable.
For anyone who wants to trade Stu by all means cut off your nose while you’re at it.
I don’t want to trade Skinner, I just want him to play better. He has shown he has it in him. Looks like he is trending the right direction, same as the team.
What comes first, the chicken or the egg?
Sorry to pick at you here Lowetide, but I believe you are selling the good ship Oilers short by one win in your actual results on the year.
I’m making them earn it!!! Thanks. Appreciate it.
We’ve all been a little tender to start the year no need to make the hill look any steeper than it really is!
Saros also played behind a superior D than Stu. Swap Saros in for Stu and Bowman simply burns $5m off the cap in exchange for similar results. It’s too bad Rodrigue didn’t force himself into the backup role in September, but if he continues to be stellar in California he should be given a chance to step up.
Also, Kane helps this team immensely when he isn’t injured so sending him the other way also eliminates a big internal deadline acquisition.
Save percentages are down across the league as players shot velocity/accuracy continues to improve.
The list of recent Cup champion tenders is a mixed bag – Hill, Kuemper, Holtby, Murray.
Skinner is generally an average goalie who gets streaky.
What’s my point? I have no idea. Discuss.
Your point is that leading up to Jack Campbell, and then continuing into the realisation that Campbell would not be the answer, i.e. for several years, the intention was (and let’s say its a compromise…) that since they have such high-end offensive firepower, the Oilers needed average goaltending because a) they would outscore any deficiencies in net and b) they weren’t going to put more $$ in that basket than they had to.
That strategy has gotten the Oilers to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. And, now that its November and we see what average goaltending looks like in November, there is a clamouring to demand something beyond our expectations, even as they were met 5 months ago — and despite the fact that both Pickard and Skinner, as a deeply affordable duo, can help Edmonton win 4/7 games consistently… as had been the intention when the brought in Campbell I’ll remind.
Indeed, I would argue Skinner is outplaying expectations, not underperforming. Do I wince at the goal against per game that should not go in? Yes. Do I see a goalie still improving – probably.
Do I see what we thought was the most potent cluster of offensive firepower in the cap era struggling to score? Yup.
Stuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.
Count me among those that hopes Stu stays. People can’t separate Nurse from his contract, but for some reason have no issue separating Stu from his. Great value deal. If you put Saros behind the Oilers, your going to get similar results to Stu. And it will cost a lot more. And there might be an adjustment period where he’s worse than Stu.
Let’s not be like Ottawa, please. They constantly decide the grass is greener, throw their old goalie away, and then get the same results from the new guy.
The answers lie at the other end of the player spectrum. Until/if they can divest of Nurse’s contract Bouch and Connor are all they can do with high cap hits. Find the next emerging goalie (or any needed player) that can push Stu, that can earn the trust to take the net if need be, and make sure Stu’s next deal is written with a sharp pencil
Pick is fine, but at 32 last season was the most NHL games he’s played this decade. I don’t see that they trust him as a starter
Offseason 2027 seems so far away. Because it is.