The Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday HNIC is instant nostalgia for me. Plaster walls, smoke in the air, laughter from the parents and grandparents, cards and the call of the hockey game. If it was Toronto versus Montreal, the entire group would be in front of the television set, beers in hand and plenty of positive verbal for Tim Horton and Johnny Bower. Every so often, a young player, like Jim McKenny or Gary Smith, would make an appearance. The general mood of the room I was in would turn on a dime. WHY are they playing these damn kids??? I think the last young player my parents and grandparents truly liked from the 1960’s Toronto Maple Leafs was Ron Ellis. Back then, youth meant mistakes and more time on the farm. This 2024-25 Oilers team is trending in that direction.
The Athletic article today is about the best defensive trade acquisition by the Oilers since Chris Pronger. Mattias Ekholm is exceptional. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 3-2-0, 6 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-7-1, 19 points in 17 games
My projection of 8-5-0 this month looks reasonable from here, with this road trip representing a major opportunity for the Oilers. The club still has issues, with goal-scoring wingers who aren’t scoring goals a major one. Since the poor 0-3-0 start to the season, Edmonton’s record is 9-4-1 and that’s quality. The team has a chance this weekend to put the pedal to the metal.
FIVE-ON-FIVE PTS-60 (FORWARDS)
- Connor McDavid 2.40
- Leon Draisaitl 2.36
- Mattias Janmark 1.86
- Jeff Skinner 1.66
- Zach Hyman 1.17
- Connor Brown 1.16
- Viktor Arvidsson 1.1
- Corey Perry 1.04
- Vasily Podkolzin 0.93
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 0.79
- Adam Henrique 0.59
- Derek Ryan 0.44
There’s plenty to be concerned about here, but nothing that a monster goal-scoring road trip at five-on-five can’t cure. Zach Hyman’s off his normal pace, and his pts-60 has been halved year over year. Experts say wait 20 games before reaching any conclusions, we’ll know he is getting close when the HDSC’s (also down) increase.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a player I’m concerned about just based on eye test. He’s such a savvy player, always in the right spot and you never have to worry about effort. He isn’t getting to as many plays this season. Yes his offense is off, but his five-on-five number a year ago (1.66) wasn’t exceptional and we don’t expect him to score 100 points again. What we do expect, and have come to know over many years, is astute reads, getting there and being there in the play. I’m a little worried, have to say.
Left wing overall is a mell of a hess, with the best offensive player Jeff Skinner falling on hard times with the coaching staff due to play without the puck. I hope Nuge, Skinner and Podkolzin all have strong road trips. Mattias Janmark? Shining like a diamond, thanks. What a fine player.
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 56 pct goals, 63 pct expected goals in 294 minutes
- Nurse-Kulak: 75 pct goals, 66 pct expected goals in 75 minutes
These are five-on-five numbers and show the top pairing to be money (as usual). The key item here is the second pairing, now at 75 minutes and continuing a positive trend. At this point, I believe it’s fair to suggest Stan Bowman should consider pursuing a third pairing LH partner for Ty Emberson.
- Stuart Skinner: .915 SP five-on-five in 501 minutes since mid-October (10 games)
- Calvin Pickard: .930 SP five-on-five in 252 minutes since mid-October (5 games)
The goaltending at five-on-five has settled in now, Oilers fans may not get their wish for a Stuart Skinner trade. Not now, anyway. When his next contract arrives, there will be a reckoning. Edmonton winning a Stanley Cup between now and then would benefit the young stopper in a big way.
A quick final note on the lack of youth on Edmonton’s 2024-25 team. There’s no need to panic if Bowman is lining up a couple of Russian free agents this summer (Maxim Berezkin would be a nice add) or if Matthew Savoie, Olivier Rodrigue, Noah Philp and Jayden Grubbe all push for NHL jobs next season.
However, it is fair to point out, as Bruce McCurdy mentioned on the Lowdown this week, that Connor McDavid is the second youngest forward on the team, and he turns 28 in January. The only key piece on the club 25 or under is Evan Bouchard. That gets expensive, and old legs erode over time. It would behoove this organization to add some youth as time goes by, and it would certainly help if Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin emerge as long-term solutions.
The Athletic: How Oilers defenceman Mattias Ekholm has been so valuable to the team
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5922198/2024/11/15/mattias-ekholm-oilers-value/
Bouchard needs to clean his game up. A wonderful talent but hockey is lost in moments and he is directly responsible for several games this season already. He is haemorrhaging team points and personally haemorrhaging tens of thousands of dollars with each mind numbing turnover.
Toronto is a very good team and Edmonton deserved that win. Bouchard handed it to them.
This wasn’t the game we were supposed to win on this road trip. Be frustrated if you must, but there are 4 pts in Montreal and Ottawa that I will be far more frustrated with if they piss away
97s effort and positioning on the 1st GA was not going to get it done either. Soft reaching from the wrong side of the puck.
Too many players on this team that have casual interest in playing hard in the D zone
Like any goalie would Skinner assumed that any D man in the NHL would get to that puck since #2 had a 20 ft head start on the opposition.
#2 is not a typical NHL D man. Has to be hard to play behind that much vapor lock.
Team Canada?? Ha, not a chance. They don’t take unpredictable players … or goalies
Caggiula and Savoie score in the SO.
Looking at the box score, what the hades happened? Defensive breakdowns en masse or was Delia just not on tonight?
Do we simply trade Bouch if he demands over $10MM/year? At this rate, he’s more of $7-8MM/year
What contract range do you think he was in at the end of last season?
Lets not forget where he ended up last season after starting it essentially the same has he was this one.
Its frustrating that he doesn’t find his two-way game until December but I’d rather his struggles be in Oct/Nov than March-June.
Condors 7-3 lead heading in to the 3rd, gone, 7-7.
For the most part, the Oilers played a good and structured game for the most part, in particular missing Nurse but they let it get away from them with individual bad plays.
It started with the listless 5 min PP – needed to extend the lead there and they weren’t really close.
Bad decision by Bouchard (he makes that pass 5-6-7 times a game) and Stu can’t bail him out.
The tying goal is more on Skinner than anyone – caught in between. Bouch looked lazy but, once he was passed by Ekholm on the back-track who had the momentum and better angle, the second d-man should trail behind to clear a rebound or the get the trailer.
McDavid had a poor game.
Skinner had a poor game.
The PP didn’t score when needed.
Drai should have shot that puck – full knowledge that if that pass didn’t make it, its a 2 on 1 going back.
Thought the Oilers played well and showed some resolve to tie it up. 3v3 is a coin flip, never going to judge goalies and players on the outcomes in bonus time. Skinner got beat by a top 20 offensive player on a 2 on 1. It happens, 3 OT games in a row and they lose one.
Can’t really fault Skinner on either of the third period goals, both are essentially breakaways. The team is usually pretty good at locking these games down but just had a lapse today. I thought up to that point it had been rocking chair hockey.
Some defensive miscues but they found a way to get a point on a good team despite some mistakes. Clean it up and go beat the Habs.
Some will say well were shopping at the dollar store for goalies what do you expect
well take a look at other dollar store goalies like Stolarz and Lankinen.
Even Pickard who we found dumpster diving is playing better
Oilers up 2-1, get a 5 minute powerplay, should be game over.
Absolutely pathetic.
And yeah, that OT GA was not good. Not at all.
Typical Stu Skinner. Plays well enough for most of the game, but inevitably gives up one or two that you’d like him to stop. Edmonton once again with the second best goalie on the ice. How much does Stolarz make?
Considering they lost Nurse early in the second, and then failed to score on the 5 minute powerplay, the Oilers should probably be happy to get a point.
Couple of observations:
1. McDavid was bad tonight. Turned over the puck on the first goal, took a dumb penalty, and just kept coughing the puck up all night. He really didn’t do much until the 55 minute mark.
2. Bouchard. How do you pay a defenseman 10 million dollars when you can’t trust him in the 3rd period of a tight game? That 2nd Leaf goal was just a total lack of awareness and poor game management. You don’t try and thread a pass through your own slot in that situation! Never mind the lack of effort on the third goal, or the toe drag at the offensive blueline with 6 seconds left in the period. Just brutal decision making!
3. Henrique and Skinner. Have these players added anything to the team this year? That second unit powerplay was comical to watch. At least when McLeod was here we had someone who could gain the zone with possession on PP2. Jackson signed too many guys based on their past performance instead of evaluating players on their future potential.
Henrique has too many miles on him.
Skinner is absolutely horrendous defensively
Arvidsson is good, but not a guy who will play 70 games.
Mcleod was too inconsistent offensively but that speed gave the opponents fits
That was a terrible penalty call… just as bad as the one on Hyman.
There are only so many retreads on a good team. Replacing underperforming young players with past their sell by date vets is a certain recipe for disaster.
— Leaf fan beside me after Oil tie it up “McDavid just threw Marners stick away”
— Me : “I guess you never played hockey growing up 1st rule : two hands on the stick at all times”
— Oil lacking a “je ne sais quoi”. I felt they had chance to bury and didnt.
— Man do leafs fans suck. At least the ones in the lower bowl where we were.
Just curious,for those much smarter then me.It seems the Oilers always lose in Toronto on their one game a year,in fact this seems to go back to the Gretzky era as I remember Tikkanen scoring to win one game,we probably lose 80% of them anyone?
I’m much too lazy to look up their overall record but this goal in Jan 2020 is one of my favorites
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK7bH2lU7_E
That 3 game stretch was pretty special too – wins in Boston, Toronto then Montreal
Yes,of course that one,thanks
I know there’s gonna be a lot of vitriol at Bouch and he deserves it. But what the hell is Stu doing.
when night after night the opponents goalie is better, you have to wonder
You’re blaming Stu for the loss? He had little chance on the first 2. 3rd he didn’t read the breakaway that was completely misplayed by the D. 4th was a 2 on 1 and yes, an elite goalie stops that one, but 2 on 1 creates chaos.
I love hockey but man I hate those head shots and head injuries. To any player on any team. The anecdotal evidence and the science show that brain injuries can and often do have serious short and long term impacts on people’s lives. Damn.
Wonder why some of these guys that lost their careers to head injuries haven’t sued for lost wages. Like Marc Savard Erik Lindros. Until the league starts giving out 40 game suspensions to repeat offenders they are just leaving themselves open
Having first hand knowledge of the struggles of several players from different sports and league it is incredibly difficult to get ’cause and effect’ sorts of evidence when it comes to brain injuries. (and I have a kid who is doing work to have MRI’s be able to see that sort of damage). The worst of the long term symptoms often don’t manifest themselves until years later. And it isn’t just sports, lots of workplace head injuries go unrecognized as they often come as a package with other more obvious injuries like broken jaws, smashed other parts. Most pro leagues are moving to recognize some of the risk but they have fought responsibility tooth and nail. Brain trauma can come from other sources too. But head shots in hockey are one thing we can address. I cringe when the ex-player colour guys talk about ‘he got his bell rung and is shaking it off’.
It’s true. But the guys I listed very much lost their careers from head injuries and lost their paychecks because they weren’t protected.
Im sure he will get a 3-5 game suspension. But if you want to show you are taking suspensions seriously you need to suspend repeat headhunters for 20 games plus.
It’s one thing to be physical. But the only reason Reaves is in the league is because he takes liberties with the other teams players
No need for it ,then they get the benefit of trading off a goon for a number 2 defenseman, that alone could have won them the game,overplaying Bouch ect.
After the Condors, well more like Delia, give up a shortie, the 2nd unit with some great pressure, Hoeffenmayer takes it down from the right point and a great backhand pass right to a charging D’Amato who buries the 7-3.
Summarizing!
Akey and Fischer each picked up two assists.
Lachance (5) and Clattenburg (4) each tallied a goal. Clattenburg was named 1st star for his efforts.
Wakely and Mazura each had an assist.
Day rebounded with a 26-save performance in a 2-1 win. He was named 2nd star.
Berry, O’Reilly, Nicholl, Münzenberger, Määttä, and Copponi were not proffered soup and so shall have to subsist on uncooked macaroni instead.
Tender can’t handle a Josh Brown shot and Griffith pokes in a very juicy rebound.
6-2.
Stu takes the team to Game 7 of the Cup Final. 34 games later he’s washed. Tough crowd.
And then he lost game 7 on a rush shot from pretty much the same spot that Marner beat him from in OT tonight.
Kulak (who I have consistently defended for years) made the major mistake on that play. Reinhart is an elite shooter (57 goals!) and was in way closer than he should have been.
He was bailed out in the playoffs by Cal Pickard.
The Blackhawks are the cautionary tale of the full on tank job.
Yep you got Bedard but the rest of the roster? Dreadful. We’re talking Kansas City Scouts bad.
Yes kids, that was an actual team in the NHL. The Cleveland Barons too!
What does it say about Taylor Hall that he’s a healthy scratch on such a dreadful team?
He’s not playing very well?
He’s done. Only so many injuries you can heal
Sorry to hear that.
Stan needs to start preparing to get two players, a RD and a goalie. They can’t ’hope’ Pick can stand in if Stu can’t stabilize, they can’t risk this season on it. Playoffs I mean. There are no more mulligans for this core
And it is not a certainty Stu will stabilize, because he hasn’t fully established. He has done well enough, helped them get to a final. But there is no guarantee that wasn’t his peak. 26 isn’t old, and it isn’t young for a goalie to take a net clearly
For some weird reason Canadian goalies these days can’t seem to get and keep it together mentally. 4 in the top 20 in SV% at this point, no clear 4 Nations starter
This is the last season of the skinner experiment
I (seriously) agree with the half-serious comment that now is the time to sign Bouchard long-term.
Actually, the real time to sign him was before Tyson Barrie was traded, at a point when (lacking power play time) he had about 25 points in 60 games. I recall making that suggestion then. (That was one of the reasons I was opposed at the time to trading Barrie.)
I suspect my current suggestion won’t be taken any more, uh, seriously.
It would be great to sign him to a contract while he is struggling. I’m sure his agent would advise against this.
The upside is, our (OT) loss is Team Canada’s gain.
After an effort like that, on HNIC in Toronto, Bouchard will surely not be chosen for Team Canada.
Nor should he be, even if he were playing like 2023-24 Bouchard. In a short tournament, Team Canada needs absolutely reliable defensemen, not flashy but flawed ones. (It’s the same reason Erik Karlsson probably won’t be picked for Sweden.)
And it wasn’t a one-off brain fart. Bouchard’s biggest flaw is his lack of urgency, and that’s exactly what this particular mistake illustrated.
Karlson was selected in the first 6 for Sweden.
OK, oops, my bad. I recall reading an article in The Athletic suggesting that Karlsson wouldn’t be picked for that reason. So that author and I both made a mistake.
As did Team Sweden.
I guess Karlsson is such a big name that maybe Sweden can’t leave him off. And he hadn’t fallen off the cliff at the point when he was named to the team. But he’s not the kind of player you want in a short best-on-best tournament.
I would take Jonas Brodin, Rasmus Andersson, and Mattias Ekholm (and obviously Victor Hedman and Rasmus Dahlin and Hampus Lindholm) well before I would take Karlsson. I don’t think Karlsson is a Top 6 Swedish D-man, let alone a Top-6 Swedish player.
It would be like us naming Steven Stamkos in our Top 6. I’d still like to see Stamkos there as a 13th forward, but to name him in our Top 6 would only be for legacy/sentimental reasons, and would be a bad idea. Same with Karlsson, for similar reasons.
He’ll be a third pairing PP specialist.
Honestly though , think having a rested team will be crucial to a long playoff run. I’m secretly hoping that Sweden passes on Ekholm too. None of Hyman, Nuge, Skinner or Bouchard will be selected after the starts they’ve had.
That play didn’t bother me as much as the complete lack of effort to try to defend against the 3-2 breakaway.
There’s “lack of panic” and then there’s “I can’t be bothered, hopefully Stu’s got this.”
I think Ekholm is close to a lock.
I know – he’s a beast. His beard would earn a spot. Hope he stays healthy. Oilers are toast without him.
Despite his slump this year, I still think Hyman will be picked, and should be picked.
He’s got great chemistry with McDavid (important in a short tournament).
He really can play up and down the lineup.
He’s smart enough to play with everybody (e.g. led the NHL in expected goals last year).
And he brings an element of toughness and doggedness that many elite players lack.
He’s a bit like Patrice Bergeron, minus the elite defensive skills.
Bouch and Stu were a dynamic duo in the third.
Came back to point out that Connor was +1/-4 tonight.
“That’s not good enough.”
Two of the top 3 offensive players on the team made mistakes which ended up in the net. I thought that the team played well overall and lost a bit of momentum when Nurse went down.
Bouchard doesn’t process well.
He does seem surprised when he makes a big boo boo. As if ‘how did that happen?’. Maybe it is the confidence of years of unchallenged success. Other players seem to get to the ‘holy shit what have I done’ part a bit quicker and seem to react with more urgency.
And somehow, the blob is making that loss Stu’s fault…
it’s the blob’s fault they lost.
Underrated Steve McQueen flick.
I’m a huge Bouchard fan, and devils advocate on the tying goal, he should have known better, but bad bounce, blah blah blah, the go ahead goal his lack of try and coasting in just to watch Ekholm from the perimeter was just horrible. And as much as I want to love Skinner, at some point you have to realize he will never be the goalie that can make big saves when they need to be made. Average goalie, that’s it. That would be ok if he at least once in awhile made a tough save to keep us in it, it’s gotta be so frustrating for the team to have zero faith that your starting goalie will never make that big play.
Your namesake (Grant) was a tough goalie to cheer for, he made way too many mistakes that would make us all groan… but more often than not, late in the 3rd with a 1 goal lead, he was magic. One of his talents was having a short memory, Stu has trouble forgetting.
I hope Darnell is OK and can come back soon. Edmonton needs two pieces to win a Cup. Another top 4 defenseman so Bouchard can be stapled to the bench when he plays like he did tonight.
And a goalie to replace Skinner – he’s just not good enough to backstop a team to the Cup. Only a complete homer would think otherwise.
Glad for the point. Such a classic game, Connor and Leon lead the way, Leon with a high risk pass in OT that doesn’t work (fake a pass and shoot instead of trying to thread through 3 players that can turn up ice) and Stu hugging the left post leaving Marner a ton of net
Always the hard way as Connor says. THW. Crush the next two lads
The Bouchard brain farts aside that was a good effort and decent result. Go Condors!!!!
Wasn’t a game lost by Skinner but Stolarz was the better goalie this game 100%
when the opponents goalie is better every night you begin to wonder
Really stole defeat from the jaws of victory tonight.
haha. Be nice to get a save there…. oh, and hopefully plays like that get factored into Bouchard’s next contract. Sheeeesh. Winning games matters.
Gotta wonder whether Skinner has been playing a bit too scared based on chance to represent Canada in 4 Nations. Hopefully that will resolve itself after the announcement
Skinner looks like Ken Dryden against the Soviets in 72. A big no to him wearing the maple leaf.
no chance Skinner gets within a mile of the net for that event.
Agree he won’t be picked but he was in the preseason discussions and wonder how much that has been weighing on him.
Statistically, he’s pretty much the worst starting goalie in the league.
See almost zero chance Skinner is on team Canada.
Skinner the goalie seems so confused on rush goals. He was playing totally upright. Strange.
Oilers controlled that game. Complete break downs by Bouch and Skinner in the third cost us. Becoming a bad trend.
They didn’t score. Therefore they didn’t control.
It was in the net before Skinner moved sometimes your goalie needs to make a save.
Skinner was too deep on that shot
That was some sort of technique Skinner.
Time to run Pickard as number one and Skinner as number two for a stretch.
Let see what Pickard has if he’s a marshmallow like Skinner then Bowman needs to call in a favour.
Hate to say it but another game we have the second best goalie. No words to describe Bouch’s performance tonight….
An unlucky deflection on the first. Tough look on the 2nd. The OT he played it correctly. Stu didnt stop the puck.
1 brain fart where i assume he thought Stu or Ek would get it erased a whole lotta good.
Not bothered, single moments.
Well 4 goals on 22 shots. No matter how you slice it thats just not good enough.
If he continues batting 880 he’s going directly to the AHL
Skinner is quite possibly the worst goalie I’ve ever seen.
I respectfully disagree. He can certainly play like a bad AHL goalie for periods of time, but he does get his game together and be acceptable. The tremendous variance in his performance is a significant issue. The Oil need a quality stablemate who can take the net for long periods of time.
He is truly a goalie in the national hockey league. What the hell was he doing on the Bouch missplay.
I used to love when playing against Murray Bannerman in Chicago.
Take the point.
Move on.
Go get 4 points in Montreal and Ottawa.
Good game, emotional
We’ll take the point
Lucky to get the point.
We’re so slow.
Since Bouch isnt benched he will prob score the OT winner because…. oil
A bad couple of minutes there but the Oilers deserved at least a point in this one. Now, lets get two.