One day I’ll write the story of Sam Pollock and his brilliance at the first expansion draft, but the heart of the story is contained in these paragraphs I wrote on this blog over a decade ago. Pollock had the best and strongest system before the expansion draft, and his pool of talent was even more dominant after the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs were decimated by the 1967 expansion.
It made the following decade a different vibe, as the Canadiens flew well past the Leafs in all-time Stanley Cups. That race is now long decided for all time, but in 1967 it was a close contest.
The NHL moves slow and fast, and there are always forces that have an impact. Since Connor McDavid was drafted, the NHL has expanded to place two strong franchises (one a super franchise in Vegas) in the same division as the Oilers. That’s the NHL, it isn’t like other major leagues.
There are opportunities for innovation, and we may be seeing something special happening in Edmonton.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 4-2-1, 9 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-7-2, 20 points in 18 games
The Oilers are on a nice run (3-0-1) after the wobbly start to the month. The team’s overall goal share is 52 percent (23-21) through seven games. Edmonton is a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league, and for November is averaging 3.25 GF and 2.96 GA. Last season, over the entire year, the club averaged 3.85 GF per game, 2.85 GA per game. What does this mean? As much as people are worried about the goaltending, it’s the goal scoring that is off the pace (by .6 goals a game).
We’ll talk about this more as the season rolls along, but I’m liking the five-on-five numbers in November from these Oilers. SA-60 is 23.7, GA-60 is 2.35 and HDCA-60 is 7.21. Those numbers last season: 26.8 SA-60; 2.3 GA-60; 10.1 HDCA-60. It doesn’t tell the entire story, not all HD chances are created equal, but it does tell us the shots and HD chances are down. The GA remains the same, but we are dealing in a small sample (seven games) and that should iron itself out.
I get the sense many of you are waiting for the sky to fall. Not being critical, Oilers fans have been shredded this century so expecting bad news is a good way to shield yourself against further devastation.
There’s much upset about the events of summer, from signing veterans July 1 to losing kids later in the summer. Personally, my idea of team building has been derailed by summer 2024. The ‘build through the draft and development’ model I hold dear has been set aside in favour of a ‘sign the olds!’ approach by management.
As much as I don’t enjoy this way of pushing for Stanley, it’s important to remember there’s more than one way to win a championship. I’m intrigued by this team’s deployment of the new additions, as it speaks to Kris Knoblauch’s overall philosophy and approach to winning.
I’m reading plenty of chatter about Jeff Skinner’s deployment as a negative, but for me it’s an indication of what the coach would like from his roster. Knoblauch is playing Nuge and Vasily Podkolzin ahead of Skinner, and Mattias Janmark is forcing his way above Skinner, too. Let’s see how this plays out. It’s a fascinating time to be watching the Oilers. Knoblauch is showing us what he is.
The Lowdown hits at noon on Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and ESPN will join us, and I’ll ask about the Saturday night Oilers-TML game, the roster structure as it stands, and moves the team might make before the deadline. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about the Oilers-Habs, Grey Cup and more. Declan Krueger will have Declanations, we’ll talk MMA but also some major boxing excitement from the Mike Tyson bout (and I’m not talking about Tyson’s wardrobe, or more accurately, lack of wardrobe). I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: How are the Edmonton Oilers’ 4 key new arrivals performing this season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5927438/2024/11/18/oilers-stats-skinner-arvidsson/
Per Stauffer
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I remember when Arvidsson was just having a maintenance day and was 50/50 to play the next game – 4 games later……..
I though Jeff Skinner created quite a bit the last two games and, for me, I’d put him up with Drai and Podz – one of those two could play the right side. Perry has had a good start to the season but he’s faded a bit the last bit and its time, in my opinion, to give Skinner the reps in the top 6 – understanding LT’s thought on why the coach is deploying as is.
The Oilers are at or near the top of the league in various offensive metrics (and net metrics) including offensive zone possession time, high danger chances (as LT mentions, not all are created equal), all shot metrics, etc.
They also show well in many defensive metrics and are top 10 in expected goals against (on the good side) but, well, bottom of the league in the related goaltending metric. As LT mentions, much of that is PK and should turn around but, at the same time, I think the last 6 decent 3rd period-OT high dangers have gone in and none of them were 5-alarm.
Skinner has not been good enough but has save percentage on this date last year was almost identical and he finished strong and won 14 playoff games.
Bouchard and Skinner both need to be better but both have a history of a start like this and finishing strong – in particular Bouchard who has done so many years in a row and his stretch run/playoff level is top 5 elite.
Bouchard was 1.88 GA/60 in the playoffs – 25 games against playoff teams including 13 against Dallas and Florida – playing 3 minute more per game than any other player on the team.
Bouch can be awful defensively but it’s simply not true the he IS awful defensively – he has a high level 2 ways and I hope he starts to get there soon!
I think fans are acutely aware of the floor/ ceiling issue with this team.
Also, the collect skilled veterans approach to team building is fraught with risk. One really hopes that all players perform close to established levels but there is not much in the way of growth potential. Most of the players have an established level of play that is slowly declining but declines can be unpredictable/fast.
At least these are the reasons I am alway a little skeptical of Oilers. And DOD PTSD.
What are the odds on Josh Brown fighting tonight? I think we are around 85% assured of a Brown fight tonight.
Also, 6-3-1 in their last 10 and four of those games were without McDavid (including the game he got injured and played 1 shift).
The vibes are in the toilet. I understand the heartburn re: some struggling players including top d-men and tenders, re: blowing leads, etc., etc., however the vibes don’t seem to match the recent point accumulation.
It seems more than ever, every single loss is an absolute catastrophe.
I would think that they use Kulak/Emberson as a full 2nd pairing tonight. Hopefully they get legit minutes and the don’t run the top paid 27-28 with back to backs and 3 in 4 on the road.
Hopefully Arvy is back so they don’t have to go 11/7.
Stecher is clearly ahead of Dermott on the depth chart but I do think they play Brown and Dermott is a leftie. I would note that Brown had been playing the left side in Bako.
I don’t know what to expect from this D-Group without Nurse, a massive loss.
I do know the Habs give up a ton of goals and I expect the Oilers to NOT let a mediocre goalie look like a Vézina candidate. Goal should be scored.
I wonder if they would play Brown on the left side with Stecher, considering how Dermott has fallen out of favor.
Plus, I wonder if they consider splitting up the top pair in Nurses absence.
Kulak-Bouchard Or Ekholm-Bouchard
Ekholm-Emberson Kulak-Emberson
Brown-Stecher
I guess the main concern should be the third pair and the amount of ice time they receive so as not to overtax the top two pairs however they line up.
For me I don’t expect the sky to fall, I am more concerned that the management will make correct adjustments. You don’t trade S Skinner because of his age, and because they have little depth in the org, and there isn’t much out there that is clearly better
I have the feeling that losing the two to the Blues has more behind it than we can see from the outside, even though it sucks and I think could have been handled better, Holloway with his arm and Bro wanting out. I get why they went after two better 5v5 scorers that were willing to come on pretty good deals, even if J Skinner isn’t ideal, they needed to be better there. I am pretty sure Ryan and Warren are not there because of the playoff GF% results for them
Things are going to come together better, and that they are staying in the race is great. It seems they are still figuring themselves out. I hope they don’t get burnt out
With the loss of Broberg & Holloway it might have been better to at least keep Ryan MacLeod in the fold, instead of the Jeff Skinner acquisition.
Not thrilled about the Brown recall, although he was a serious contributor in their last game with a couple of assists, and this display of what a punching machine looks like…
https://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/n270160
Here’s hoping Brown performs better than Dermott. The physicality may prove to be enough.
I like Knobaluch’s approach. He fades those that deserve it and rewards players playing better, without seeming to de-motivate anyone
They are over playing the top of the roster, not sure how much of a choice they have. It’s been a while since we have seen players actually having to keep their slot, and this much creativity with deployment