One day I’ll write the story of Sam Pollock and his brilliance at the first expansion draft, but the heart of the story is contained in these paragraphs I wrote on this blog over a decade ago. Pollock had the best and strongest system before the expansion draft, and his pool of talent was even more dominant after the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs were decimated by the 1967 expansion.
It made the following decade a different vibe, as the Canadiens flew well past the Leafs in all-time Stanley Cups. That race is now long decided for all time, but in 1967 it was a close contest.
The NHL moves slow and fast, and there are always forces that have an impact. Since Connor McDavid was drafted, the NHL has expanded to place two strong franchises (one a super franchise in Vegas) in the same division as the Oilers. That’s the NHL, it isn’t like other major leagues.
There are opportunities for innovation, and we may be seeing something special happening in Edmonton.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN NOVEMBER
- On the road to: CAL (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NJD, VEG (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-2-0)
- On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: NYI, NAS (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 2-0-0)
- On the road to: TOR, MTL, OTT (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: MIN, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: UTA, COL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-0, 16 points in 13 games
- November results: 4-2-1, 9 points in 7 games
- Oilers in 2024-25: 9-7-2, 20 points in 18 games
The Oilers are on a nice run (3-0-1) after the wobbly start to the month. The team’s overall goal share is 52 percent (23-21) through seven games. Edmonton is a 4-3 team in a 3-2 league, and for November is averaging 3.25 GF and 2.96 GA. Last season, over the entire year, the club averaged 3.85 GF per game, 2.85 GA per game. What does this mean? As much as people are worried about the goaltending, it’s the goal scoring that is off the pace (by .6 goals a game).
We’ll talk about this more as the season rolls along, but I’m liking the five-on-five numbers in November from these Oilers. SA-60 is 23.7, GA-60 is 2.35 and HDCA-60 is 7.21. Those numbers last season: 26.8 SA-60; 2.3 GA-60; 10.1 HDCA-60. It doesn’t tell the entire story, not all HD chances are created equal, but it does tell us the shots and HD chances are down. The GA remains the same, but we are dealing in a small sample (seven games) and that should iron itself out.
I get the sense many of you are waiting for the sky to fall. Not being critical, Oilers fans have been shredded this century so expecting bad news is a good way to shield yourself against further devastation.
There’s much upset about the events of summer, from signing veterans July 1 to losing kids later in the summer. Personally, my idea of team building has been derailed by summer 2024. The ‘build through the draft and development’ model I hold dear has been set aside in favour of a ‘sign the olds!’ approach by management.
As much as I don’t enjoy this way of pushing for Stanley, it’s important to remember there’s more than one way to win a championship. I’m intrigued by this team’s deployment of the new additions, as it speaks to Kris Knoblauch’s overall philosophy and approach to winning.
I’m reading plenty of chatter about Jeff Skinner’s deployment as a negative, but for me it’s an indication of what the coach would like from his roster. Knoblauch is playing Nuge and Vasily Podkolzin ahead of Skinner, and Mattias Janmark is forcing his way above Skinner, too. Let’s see how this plays out. It’s a fascinating time to be watching the Oilers. Knoblauch is showing us what he is.
The Lowdown hits at noon on Sports 1440. Rachel Doerrie from Betalytics and ESPN will join us, and I’ll ask about the Saturday night Oilers-TML game, the roster structure as it stands, and moves the team might make before the deadline. Jason Gregor will pop in to chat about the Oilers-Habs, Grey Cup and more. Declan Krueger will have Declanations, we’ll talk MMA but also some major boxing excitement from the Mike Tyson bout (and I’m not talking about Tyson’s wardrobe, or more accurately, lack of wardrobe). I’m at Lowetide on twitter, in the comments section here and on the Sports 1440 text line at 1.833.401.1440 directly. We can be heard at sports1440.ca; iHeartRadio; Radioplayer Canada, we tweet out the show after it’s done and you can catch us on Apple and Spotify.
New for The Athletic: How are the Edmonton Oilers’ 4 key new arrivals performing this season?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5927438/2024/11/18/oilers-stats-skinner-arvidsson/
I don’t understand the love affair with J skinner .Is it because of past performance on a team that plays more east west ? Watch him the next game, he floats all over the place which may work to some degree in the offensive zone but not so well in the defensive zone .Seriously watch him the next game and you may see why the coaches are frustrated with him so far this season . As McTavish was famous for saying it seems that he is where the play goes to die. .
On the statement that we should bring the kids up and just play them until they figure it out Well that may work with a team that is in transition to becoming a contender but not one that is there .How many games are you willing to lose because of youth “learning”mistakes on this team at this point in their SC cycle..It is always about finding the right balance isn’t it and that depends on where the team Is in its evolution .
The Oilers have been playing basically the same game since opening night.
If they win everything is okay. If they lose people lose their minds.
“never thought Connor should be captain”
It’s the same group executing the same tactics but results vary night to night. Forget about the scores and the math. The same issues persist
“never though Connor should be captain”
That might be the most “sky is falling” comment yet, and I just commented “the sky is falling” four down from this one.
Of all things, Connor’s leadership should not be questioned. He just came off first star of the week, and was absolutely dancing in the first. Hyman and Nuge missed three automatics. He is being let down in ways that haven’t been seen since the days of Ty Rattie. Speaking of, my God did this game look straight out of the 18-19 season…
Yes it is. And that is in the comments below, not my own.
As I said, folks are losing their minds.
if the game was played the same way tonight, but resulted in a 2-1 win for the Oil, everything would be alright.
This is results based panic is my
point. Yet we see the same weaknesses in both wins and losses.
Being the best player doesn’t mean being the best leader. Having opinions about how underwhelming their play has been this season is not the same as the sky is falling
I think it is fair to say that they aren’t playing up to their potential, for whatever reasons. People are going to discuss the why, that’s what fans do. Or at least fans that like to analyze the team, which is kind of the thing at Lowetide
If I’m coach K I make a statement next game. Bouch, nuge and hyman in the press box. Picks in net again. Get some AHL kids some minutes. Schedule the loss and light a fire. Last ditch effort before a shake up trade that we all fear is coming.
Before or after the Condors’ morning game in California tomorrow (and 2 hours from the international airport)?
As an aside, as far as “last ditch efforts”, the Oilers are 4 points out of first in the division with only one more game played.
They are, shockingly, not even close to out of it….
It’s truly hard to understand how an entire team has forgotten how to play hockey, stunning really. They are all performing the same failing scene over and over, everyone going to their spot, expecting a miracle to happen when they are so predictable. Where is the beef in front of the net looking for rebounds, where are the goalie-sight blockers… hardest (for me) to understand, deflections have been long abandoned.
Frustrating to watch. Time to inject some youth.
This team probably makes the playoffs, but it is not unprecedented for great teams to miss. Vegas missed after a few years of deep runs and then won the cup.
97 and 29 with moments of terrible body language tonight. That’s pee wee hockey stuff they’re doing. Suck it up and figure it out. There’s a reason Corey Perry was kept around.
You think that crap would ever happen on a team with Ryan Smyth, and Jason Smith as leaders?
Yeah, rough look for 97 tonight, though I know he’s just as hard on himself. It’s been a full year long grind at this point after the tough start last year and the long playoff run. I think their love of the game is running low. Cliche but they need to have some fun out there again.
I thought it was a mistake to make Connor Captain. The most talented player isn’t necessarily the best leader. Right now Ekholm should be captain
Wow, with all due respect, you have no idea whether McDavid is a good or bad leader. Ditto for Ekholm.
I won’t watch Connor’s freak out at the team from last playoffs. I do know that is very rarely a helpful thing to do to motivate a group, so there is some basis to go by, they let us in. Maybe it works for them. Maybe it’s part of why they are having such a rough time given expectations now. Maybe it’s nothing, but we all have opinions
I’m at the point where I just want them to grow up
The greats weren’t approaching 30 when they figured the deal out
I like Knoblauch as a coach. I felt after he was hired he might be too quiet for the Duo. He does calm the team down, but I am heading back to thinking they need someone with a bigger personality and as much ‘self confidence’ as they have
I didn’t think Maurice was a good idea, I think I was wrong. They need that enormous personality that isn’t a bully and is smart and creative and is still a people person. Someone that can convince the top players to do something different because their ideas are less effective as time goes on
Talk about game 7 and I’ll mention they went down 3-0 and shit the bed in two previous playoff years big time. Something is off given the age and talent of the top players they have chosen to keep
I am not saying the sky is falling. I am saying they are falling short of their potential and not showing that they have the right stuff to get to their goal as things are shaping up. The best players have to lead the way, and it’s not points I’m talking about, and I am not seeing it
I would really like to see some accountability. PP1 has been an absolute momentum killer, mix it up. They are stationary and on the perimeter, then after passing it around just make a soft low to high pass to Bouchard for a blocked shot. It’s predictable, and teams are just clogging the middle of the ice to block that shot and take away the cross seam.
Drai gets a pass tonight based on recent play, but he was terrible. McD is clearly frustrated, but still insists on trying to pass through 4 sticks rather than shooting. I try not to question the instinct of generational offensive players, but teams seem to be collapsing more, those passes aren’t there. He only shoots when he’s driving in alone, which is the one time the goalie knows he will.
Mix up the lines and leave them for a game or three. Drai’s line is the only line that has really changed much. I like 19 on the wing, as long as the other wingers has some wheels. Maybe give them a game with 97. Nuge and Hyman can drop to 3rd line or with Drai. Call up Philp and play him. Run all 4 lines, give each line a role to play. And quit with 7 defenders. Maybe even try 14/49 and 27/2 or something and then Dermott with whoever. But run 12/6 and get everyone involved.
Oh, and maybe try 14 on PP1 for a game or two. Bouchard will come around, but 14 plays with more urgency (if less creativity).
I would argue that
Great comment. Generational offensive players that have no Cup have not earned a pass
We continue to see the same stubborn minded play from them. As Oiler fans we can look to our own team for how the greats react. It didn’t previously involve taking a decade to figure it out
Straight up Connor and Leon need to play with their linemates, not use them as life support systems for individual hero plays
Until they do that, they may have enough talent to grind out a Cup, but it will take more luck than it should
I am also pretty certain there needs to be different wingers in consideration than the usuals
It’s fantastic that Nuge got 100 points, and Zach 50 G, but they aren’t anywhere near that kind of player normally. Especially at the aging out cliff they are tiptoeing. Ekholm is older and plays more and is far more effective
Its not age as much as limited 5v5 players that can’t sustain as they age because they aren’t skilled enough compared to top players
Agreed, but Nuge and Hyman don’t need to be 100 point/50 goal players. But they do need to take and make a pass. Nuge isn’t doing much of anything without the time and space the PP affords, and Hyman is fighting the puck. The fact that line still has good metrics is a testament to 97 more than anything.
I’d like to see a game where everyone simplifies 5v5, superstars included. Less flying the zone for the breakaway, more low support. Less curls and cross seams, more driving the net for rebounds. 4 lines. Maybe split PP1 into two solid units, make them place a bet on who will score or something. Winning or losing stick with the plan, no more McDrai until the final two minutes or OT.
They are very good at cycling the puck. But have no idea how to turn that into a scoring chance. Pass it up to the d and send a shot at the net. And I’d be willing to bet we are the worst puck deflecting team in the league
Can’t deflect a blocked shot!
Those low to high passes are usually slow and to the middle of the ice. They aren’t getting through with much regularity.
I saw Emberson good tonight.
Thats about it.
Drai has been great but he was AWFUL tonight.
I’d actually like to see 14/49. Problem is that’s a big jump in QoC, but I like how he defends. Still gets the yips on the breakout but lots to like I think.
Only tangentially related, but I’m also really confused why they called up Brown. But I’d run Dermott-Brown as a 3rd pair and see if he can PK. Stecher is fine but maybe some size would help, and no more R-R pairs.
What are the chances we leave Montreal, after a brilliant trade (haha), with David Savard?
This is an 0-3 team in a 3-2 league.
Tabernac Monday.
Tough to win when you don’t score any goals.
Team has become slow and too predictable.
They are not slow, they run rings around their opponents
Unfortunately, yes, sky is falling.
Completely unacceptable loss. Shutout by a horrific team.
No finish whatsoever, which now through game 19, is no small sample size.
No powerplay to save the day.
And no relief in sight.
Jeff Skinner? A 3 million fourth liner? What is the point of him right now?
Podkholzin? I thought they traded a lanky guy with no finish and a long name starting with a P for peanuts a few years ago.
And Hyman? My God, I never thought I would say it, but he’s truly a liability.
Sure, 3-1-1 in the last five, but three blown leads and no moment when they look like they finally turned the corner.
A must win in Ottawa tomorrow, or a coaching decision (!!!) has to be at least thought of. That’s the only way to get them going I guess
Pretty much a scheduled loss tomorrow night.
Second game of a back to back…4th game in 5 nights…Ottawa is 5-2-1 on home ice.
All this cap space we’re saving is going to mean nothing if we don’t make the playoffs.
Bring up Condors and at least make practices competitive. There’s too many complacent forwards undeserving of ice time.
outworked outsmarted cant win like that
Bowman has to be working overtime attempting to sell the idea of Jeff Skinner alongside Crosby.
Skinner at least gets offensive play. Zach and Nuge are not even close
Yes, but they’re not trading those 2 players.
Depressing. No offence clearly the problem tonight. Hard to say the sky is falling without Nurse, but wow it is frustrating to watch these games, 2005-06 vibes all over again
That was absolutely awful. Shockingly awful.
The Oilers were fire to start the game, fire – then they got a few PPs where they were terrible and then they got worse and worse as the game went on.
Unacceptably terrible tonight.
Sincere question: when is the last time the Oil won a prime time, nationally broadcasted, regular season game? Did they beat the Leafs at home last year? It just feels like they always end up folding when they get the spotlight.
How embarrassing….
Getting shut out by the worst team in the league is tough.
what is more likely:
Bowman trades for Saros or Bowman brings in Coach Q?
ew.
Okay, there was simply no way the hockey gods were allowing Oilers to win this game.
Still, some really good learnings tonight.
Oilers played the classic “oiler killer” game plan perfectly. Oilers still vulnerable to this.
Will they learn? It seems that we are seeing repeat after repeat.
Low IQ hockey.
We just got out worked by a lottery team.
We can’t possibly fire the coach again, can we?
Is Woody still under contract?
Bouchard’s goal share has just evaporated over the past five games.
Brutal…just another forced pass to the middle…
The play kept dying on McDavid’s stick tonight. When he and Leon don’t have it, this team has no chance to win.
Nuge, Hyman, Henrique and Skinner have been awol all season long.
Embarrassing loss.
Maybe it’s time to fire another coach?
Brutal game for Drai tonight.
He’s been very good for a while but tonight was his worst game of the season.
So much standing around in the offensive zone.
Perry Ryan Pods the best forward line
Sather would have changed this. But that was an era without trade restrictions
I strongly oppose those without some flexibility. It diminishes the game, and our, the paying customers, enjoyment
Top pair -2. Leon -2. 0 goals scored.
Not a recipe for success. Weird year.
The worst thing about this is how boring it is. Borrrrrrring
Ek has been falling down a lot these past few games. Weird.
7 minutes left – lets go – come on!
Loading up the top line other than after penalty kills is the wrong move. One of the brights spots this year has been 29 going back to his “I want to win the selke” roots. He has been an excellent 200 foot player. A steady diet of 29-97 is back to Harlem Globetrotter hockey and won’t end well.
Every coach has done it. Note: they are not coaching anymore…..
100%. KK had the backbone to sit Leon earlier in the year for dumb penalty. I’m cautiously optimistic he has the backbone to do the right thing here. Different era but still think this team would have already won a couple cups with a Sather type behind the bench
Josh B defends the net. I’m all in on that
I agree I think he has played well. Tough but within boundaries.
Rickithebear would be proud.
One of the few look fors I posted about earlier today to actually happen. I hope Brown keeps defending the net well for as long as he is in the lineup.
Shorty?
Hard work beats talent when talent doesn’t work hard…case in point…
They are working hard. How about playing stupid hockey loses no matter the talent
Dumb hockey, for sure but they aren’t working h hard and look slow as hell. Can’t win a puck battle…brutal…
This years team are NOT Stanley cup contenders. Sorry but my eyes don’t lie….
So far, this feels like the AI version of an Oilers team
Hard to believe how everyone read this team wrong. Best group of forwards in the league???? Hard to see it right now. They have shown in the past they can turn it around and yes all the fancy stats show them playing well????
Did the NHL bring in a new rule that prevents the oilers from taking it to the net?
I think the standings are misleading, this Habs team is a contender for sure. Montie will win the Vezina
It sure seems like the Oilers can make any goalie be the next Vezina winner.
Oh, man… Podkolzin kicks a puck to LW, skates hard and then just slams on the brakes and stops in the slot, well away from the net.
This game has the same sense of inevitability to it that the Jersey game did.
Caufield wins a physical battle against Drai leading to the goal and now puts Drai on his ass defending the rush – Caufield vs. Drai. Seriously!
Perry Pod with the best chance in ages
Ouch. That should have been an easy save.
I’m sad I wasted my early evening on this.
You can still catch last couple of minutes of Raptors game who are leading.
Drai loses the defensive zone battle and Pickard leaks a bad one.
And the battle was with fearsome physical presence and defensive stalwart Cole Caufield.
Game over.
Yep the dagger is in. Feels like the start of a lengthy losing streak.
So Hyman not scoring and now negating Oiler goals……
Figures Ek’s best rip of the year happens right then.
Hyman with the brain worms