I’ve been thinking about Jeff Skinner in recent days. If I made a list of wingers who the “coach didn’t trust enough to play a feature role” despite high-octane offense, Skinner would be high on the list based on ability. Now, he doesn’t have the future of Miro Satan on the day Glen Sather traded him, but the Oilers are in ‘now’ mode and Skinner has averaged 30 goals per 82 games since the start of the 2021-22 season. Will he find the range in Edmonton? Probably. Is Kris Knoblauch hurting his team’s chances by fading the veteran? I don’t believe that to be true.
The Athletic article today is about Stuart Skinner, shot and goal suppression, and Kris Knoblauch’s coaching staff. Article is here.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER
- On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
- At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
- On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
- December results: 4-1-0
- Oilers in 2024-25: 17-10-2, 36 points in 29 games
This little home stand is going to tell us much about the rest of the season. Stan Bowman, Edmonton’s general manager, has to be impressed by the elite players on his roster, the role players who were here when he arrived, and his additions to the group. Vasily Podkolzin, Ty Emberson, Kasperi Kapanen and (one assumes) Alec Regula have been low cost solutions for the team and reflect astute player evaluations by the organization.
This leads me to the reason why I think Skinner might have a hard time getting hired on an Oilers skill line. Skinner’s problem? Vasily Podkolzin. The big Russian owns an expected GA-60 at five-on-five (1.87) that ranks No. 1 on the Oilers and No. 7 across the NHL among regular forwards. On his own team, the gap between Podkolzin’s performance and the second-best Oilers forward (Connor Brown, 2.12) is a significant gap.
Podkolzin’s actual GA-60 at five-on-five (1.71) ranks No. 4 overall. If you look at the top 12 forwards on the roster at five-on-five GA-60, you get a pretty strong connection between playing time and GA-60:
- Adam Henrique 1.54
- Leon Draisaitl 1.64
- Connor Brown 1.70
- Vasily Podkolzin 1.71
- Mattias Janmark 1.77
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.61
- Zach Hyman 2.85
- Jeff Skinner 2.98
- Connor McDavid 3.03
If we’re playing along at home and guessing about Knoblauch’s deployment of the roster, we can see immediately that Podkolzin’s suppression efforts have been rewarded (via luck and skill) far more than Skinner’s work.
The Draisaitl line and the Henrique line are doing well in goal suppression, and the McDavid line is doing well in expected GA-60 five-on-five, not so much in actual goals surrendered. Here are McDavid’s numbers, GA-60 (XGA-60) with each of his regular wingers so far this season:
- McDavid-Hyman 2.88 (2.16)
- McDavid-Nuge 2.88 (2.16)
- McDavid-Draisaitl 1.67 (2.14)
- McDavid-Kapanen 2.40 (2.49)
- McDavid-Skinner 8.74 (3.04)
Small sample size for McDavid-Skinner, but Knoblauch moved off the duo and had success elsewhere. He may not get back to that tandem anytime soon, especially when we’re looking at the expected numbers with Nuge and Hyman. Just for giggles, let me run Skinner’s totals with each of the main centers on the team:
- Skinner-Henrique 1.18 (3.14) in 152 minutes
- Skinner-Draisaitl 2.96 (1.97) in 61 minutes
- Skinner-McDavid 8.74 (3.04) in 48 minutes
- Skinner-Ryan 1.63 (2.49) in 37 minutes
So, based on the numbers, Skinner’s ideal spot on the lineup (based on deployment) is running luck with the Henrique trio. Knoblauch has found a Draisaitl line that is thriving without him, a McDavid line that has shown great outscoring in the past (and the expected goals suggest regression in a good way) and Skinner may never get back to a true skill line with the Oilers based on current math.
Also current math: Skinner’s 0.66 goals-60 at five-on-five ranks No. 4 among Oilers forwards who have played 300 or more minutes. I’ll suggest Skinner is lurking now, waiting for his chance. I’ll also suggest that Knoblauch is a major “it’s what you leave” coach ala Craig MacTavish and the coach has enough things working to avoid chaos or perceived chaos. I want to see Skinner with McDavid, but that math slaps back, albeit in a small sample.
JOSH BROWN
Josh Brown has been recalled by the Oilers. We don’t know about Evan Bouchard yet, but it sounds like the absence due to injury will be short term and I haven’t seen anything yet to indicate he’s out of the lineup day. Missile avoided for Edmonton.
Two forwards will be coming out of the line up when Kane and Arvidsson return.
McDavid, Nuge, Hyman. Locked
Draisaitl, Podkolzin, Kapanen. If Kapanen keeps this version of himself can anyone see the coach taking him out? I can’t.
Henrique, Janmark, Skinner. Janmark most likely slides to the 4th. Skinner does he go to the 4th or is he press boxed for someone that kills penalties?
Ryan, Perry, Brown. Ryan wins draws, is that enough to secure his spot? Perry gets shifts with the glimmer twins and they seem to love him, does that keep him from the press box? Brown is good defensively, is that enough to keep him in?
Kane – Bruiser, motor, goal scoring, fight anyone dawg. Most likely ends up on the 3rd. Best skill is the same as Skinner, goal scoring, plus he brings a metal lunchbox to bash over heads.
Arvidsson – puck hound, agitator, timely contributor, pks. He’s better then Brown when healthy.
Skinner, Brown, Perry, Ryan are all up for line up removal when/if all forwards are healthy.
Imo Kane replaces Skinner, Arvidsson replaces Brown.
Henrique, Kane, Arvidsson
Ryan, Janmark, Perry.
With Ryan maybe being upgraded to Philp or outside help. Imo Philp is 4C in September but not May.
The PK is still Nuge, Henrique, Janmark, Arvidsson, Podkolzin, Kapanen, Ryan with Brown out of the lineup.
The Emberson fight last game go me thinking that, more and more, the org needs to get his extension done sooner rather than later. He needs 50 NHL games this season or else he’s a Group 6 UFA. Of course, he’s likely to get there as an every day player but injuries could play a factor.
I could see a 2-year, $1.65MM (AAV) type deal – is that in the range?
St. Louis’ decisions are a tad odd. They are really banking on being competitive in the 3-5 year window. Currently they’re a mediocre team with only 3 picks in the 2025 draft and no 2nd round picks for the next 3 years.
Also, losing a 2nd for Broberg is wildly different than for a washed up Fowler. That’s a trade that a playoff team makes to get added insurance in case of injury, and usually fails
I am trying to figure out where Fowler fits. Honestly. Broberg is running 41 percent versus elites (31 percent of his five-on-five minutes versus elites) and you’d call that bad but he’s ahead of the rest (DFF%RC). Ryan Suter is struggling far more.
Fowler, based on the ANA totals, is not the answer versus elites.
Blues management are not stupid. I think they might have a hunch they can move Fowler at the deadline to a dumb organization.
I don’t understand why anyone would recall Brown ever again at this point. Poor Kemp.
The organization has forgot about Phil Kemp. I would have loved to have seen him get this call but knew the chances were all but zero.
Kemp hasn’t played in an NHL game at his natural position. Pretty sure Brown has.
If Bouch needs a game I think going L/R is the way
The 3 LD are solid, find the pairs that seem best. Not feeling a Stecher/Emberson/Brown R/R pair
How about Nurse-Kulak top pair and then rotate Ekholm with the three righties.
I have proposed Nurse/Kulak taking the top minutes with Ekholm/Emberson getting secondary minutes and the 3rd pairing being, well, highly sheltered.
That Nurse/Kulak pairing, in the sample that we have, is literally top of the NHL in metrics.
Nurse has been on the ice for two goals against since Nov 1 (at 5 on 5) – TWO!
Oh boy… Detroit recalled from the AHL, Jack Campbell. Emergency recall. Good luck Jack!
Acquiring Skinner was an unforced error
you wonder if it’s due to the “ we needed one more goal SCF rhetoric
wish they kept Holly and not signed Skinner Oh well. Ship has sailed
Given Skinner’s career defensive work yes. Would have saved some cap as well. Very weird decision making, unless they thought they would be able to keep Holloway after waiting him out
I’m sure they definitely thought that. It was a gamble that blew up in their face but not necessarily a bad one looking at the history of offer sheets.
I don’t know, if we are concerned about free agent deals, the Arvi signing was much worse. 2 year term, higher cap hit, and injury history.
Skinner & Arvidsson were expected to be Leons wingers. It’s looking more like they will be Henrique’s.
Why is it always Skinner fault that they lost Holloway. Is it because one poster says so twice a day or this blog. I would say Arvidsson game resembles Hollywoods game more than Skinners. Why doesn’t Leon get any blame if Bowman would of nickled and dimed Leon for 1 million less a year they could of matched the foreseen offer sheet that everyone knew was coming on the great Hollywood.
Why not both?
Holloway played top 6 minutes on Draisaitl’s wing in the run to Game 7, & by noon on Jul 01 Oilers have already signed both Arvidsson & Skinner. Didn’t just blow the winger budget, but also the opportunity budget as well.
Not hard to imagine Holloway wondering “where do I fit on this team?” after that doubke acquisition of players explicitly identified as top 6 wingers.
2 months into the season, it’s not looking so good:
Holloway 30 GP, 10-9-19, +7
Skinner & Arvidsson combined: 45 GP, 7-9-16, -6
Podkolzin and Kapanen are having a whirl of a time riding the opportunity budget on the autobahn.
If Holloway was scared off by competition it’s best that he’s gone.
Not at all saying he was scared off by competition, just by the Sharpie handwriting on the wall.
The org fairly screamed “we prefer veterans” the entire time he was around.
I don’t actually agree with all of this.
1) Yes, Holloway did spend significant time with Drai in the playoffs but he was also moved off that line a few times. He spent less than 50% of his TOI with Drai. His issue in the top 6 as an Oiler was consistency and he was never able to string together more than a few games together prior to being moved off.
2) I don’t have an issue with management’s process on July 1 as the expectation was to get the expiring ELC RFAs signed to reasonable deals in line with history and market comparables. $1.25MM (or below) was the expectation for Holloway – there weren’t many, if any, that didn’t expect that to get done as the summer dragged on.
The perfect storm being in place for Doug Armstrong effed things up but its tough to predict something that had NEVER happened before in the history of the NHL (double offer sheet) and even a single offer sheet being a rare occurrence.
Over the years offer sheets have been like the little boy that cried wolf. It looks like there’re more wolves out there than there used to be. I’m sure nickel & diming Leon to sign Holloway would go over well.
Thanks for laying out the numbers LT
the thing about Podz is he’s hard to play against. You can’t say that about skinner.
Place a guy who’s hard to play against w a guy who is hard to move off the puck ( Drai) and you got rhythm.
Kaspanen has shown good willingness to get to the hard places
The high motor and being so hard on the puck is critical in playoffs. There wasn’t enough of that last season for some of the fellas
I remember that being the major criticisms of Holloway and Foegs – too many fly-bys.
I’ve always felt Leon is the most dangerous playing with a big body that does the dirty work and opens up space. Slepyshev on Leon’s wing against the heavily favourite San Jose- Ducks was memorable and one of the great individual playoff performances in Oilers history.
I have a dream that the Oilers acquire Byram and somehow sign him to a reasonable extension.
Before you ask, I have been drinking.
I have that same dream, something like 2025 2nd, 2026 1st, Wanner, Berezkin/Lachance as a starting point, and I haven’t started drinking today, yet.
I like the team’s chances better against Vegas with Bouchard than Josh Brown.
Does anyone think if the word “Kemp” was mentioned to Jackson or Bowman the response would be “what?”
Haha. Yep. The organization clearly does not view Kemp as an option.
My wish would be Josh catching Pietrangelo with his head down… boom.
I’m not sure if Josh Brown would get within 10 feet of Alex P…. but I’m all for hoping for that.
I have no doubt Skinners time will come. I’m sure it’s tough for him not being “the guy” but he accepted Oilers offer knowing this and knowing he may have to adapt.
In his pursuit of Stanley I do not see him waiving his ntc in favor of playing time elsewhere. He’s here to win, hopefully he stays positive and contributes where he can.
Bouchards close call is a reminder how quickly the team could be looking around for depth.
I would platoon Skinner into Nuge’s spot on PP1.
I don’t agree
nuge is complimentary but moves the puck well. And the pp last few games hasn’t been somewhat limited
What’s everyone’s thought on Mario Ferraro? Seems like an ideal player with term. Can’t imagine acquisition cost is too high.
He does have a great name.
He was Emberson’s main partner with the Sharks. They were the second pair. They would be the third pair in Edmonton. He makes Cody Ceci money for another season and becomes UFA. Ceci didn’t fit within the salary structure; I don’t imagine Ferraro would either. If he was a RHD maybe. He probably doesn’t meet the criteria the Oilers are searching for.
Not sure who Stauff is going to imply for acquisition now but Fowler to the Blues (along with a fourth) for a second and a player I am not in the know about. Apx 38% retained (for next year too remember).
there’s still the other Ducks left handed, 33-year-old d-man, Brian Dumoulin.
JFresh card suggests a player with a steep decline in offense and already eroded defense. Thanks, St. Louis
Thank you, St. Louis!
100%
There are better ways to appropriate $4M than on Cam Flower
Pretty sure the player is Provorov.
My thought as well but Bob mentioned recently he thinks Provorov ends up in Vegas due to his history with Kelly McCrimmon from Brandon.
I’ll bight… so a 1st and what?
I think a first gets it done.
I’ll assume this is with no salary retained… for the bigger brains here, can we fit this in the cap without LTIR?
Sure, could be.
I’ve always though that Stauff was describing Fowler with his “can play both sides”, can move the puck and has some term.
Bob routinely included “has some term”. Fowler has the one extra season whereas Proporov is a UFA at this season.
Fun fact: The player acquired by the Ducks is Jeremie Biakabutuka. If his last name sounds familiar, his uncle is Canadian ex-NFL’er Tim Biakabutuka.
So if Skinner is still stuck on the 3rd/4th line at the end of Feb., do they keep him for “offensive depth” or does he waive his NTC if it’s to a playoff team? Once Kane comes back – who brings much more of what they want/need for the playoffs – it’s not unreasonable to see Skinner as the odd man out watching from popcorn row
I think having a guy like Skinner in the 3rd line is the type of depth championship teams normally have.
i guess, but in a cap world is he your top choice at $3M for what he brings?
hooefully it’s just been a slow adjustment that will improve
Fair but $3MM for a third line player that can provide some secondary/tertiary scoring and move up isn’t all that expensive these days.
No PK factors in though, I must admit.
The Oilers won’t be selling, that’s for sure. The only teams that would be acquiring Skinner, as a pending UFA, would be playoff teams looking to improve so the return would be picks/prospects (I would think).
I mean, the Oilers will likely have about $3MM worth of annual cap space at the deadline and anything in addition to that would be money in and money out. He could be a cap dump ala Tyson Barrie if there is a deal they love and they need to move some cap.
For me, 30 games in to the season, I’m not looking to move Jeff Skinner – things could change by February though, of course.
Phil Kessel says hi. No shame in third liners with scoring chops.
Jinner* has been all over it lately, without much joy. Last game we at CoH had him contributing to 4 Grade A shots, 0 against. He’s a terrier on the puck on his best shifts. Just a matter of time.
(* I have taken to calling the Skinner boys Jinner & Stinner, in the best tradition of Jultz & Nultz)
Prospectification!
It’s Mazura and the Terriers who get a rest. The remaining undectet of NAmateurs shall toil this day.
Don’t look now–okay, you can look now–but the Vermonters Määttä and Münzenberger are in the top 4 of team scoring. The former has 4+8 in 16 GP whilst the latter has 4+5 in 14 GP. In fact, Münzenberger already has more points this year than his two previous combined (1+7 in 60 GP). And it’s interesting to note the depth chart at the start of the season had him at LD, but more recent games have had him at RD.
Akey has made Team Canada and will not be available for tonight’s game but is still listed here.
Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 2 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5:30 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 6 p.m.
All times, at all times, are Robb time.
Robb is always late when I go to pick him up😜
Learned a new word this morning. Thanks!
Munzenburger should be a Condor as soon as his season in Vermont is over.
Sign him to that ELC and I’m just fine if they burn a year of it by playing him in the AHL this season (one game will burn it). I think they could sign him to an ELC that starts next year and play him on an ATO (I think) but I’m fine with burning it.
Also the ELC will be 2 years given his age.
I have some Kesselring type vibes about this player. To be honest, much of that is via limited viewings at the World Juniors but I LOVED his ranginess for team Germany and that is what I loved about Kesselring as well.