Golden Knights at Oilers, G30 2024-25

by Lowetide
  • On the road to: VEG (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, STL, TBAY (Expected 2-1-0) (Actual 3-0-0)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: VEG, FLA, BOS, SJS, OTT (Expected 4-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: UTA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • Overall expected result: 9-4-0, 18 points in 13 games
  • December results: 4-1-0
  • Oilers in 2024-25: 17-10-2, 36 points in 29 games
  • Adam Henrique 1.54
  • Leon Draisaitl 1.64
  • Connor Brown 1.70
  • Vasily Podkolzin 1.71
  • Mattias Janmark 1.77
  • Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.61
  • Zach Hyman 2.85
  • Jeff Skinner 2.98
  • Connor McDavid 3.03
  • McDavid-Hyman 2.88 (2.16)
  • McDavid-Nuge 2.88 (2.16)
  • McDavid-Draisaitl 1.67 (2.14)
  • McDavid-Kapanen 2.40 (2.49)
  • McDavid-Skinner 8.74 (3.04)
  • Skinner-Henrique 1.18 (3.14) in 152 minutes
  • Skinner-Draisaitl 2.96 (1.97) in 61 minutes
  • Skinner-McDavid 8.74 (3.04) in 48 minutes
  • Skinner-Ryan 1.63 (2.49) in 37 minutes

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DevilsLettuce

Two forwards will be coming out of the line up when Kane and Arvidsson return.

McDavid, Nuge, Hyman. Locked

Draisaitl, Podkolzin, Kapanen. If Kapanen keeps this version of himself can anyone see the coach taking him out? I can’t.

Henrique, Janmark, Skinner. Janmark most likely slides to the 4th. Skinner does he go to the 4th or is he press boxed for someone that kills penalties?

Ryan, Perry, Brown. Ryan wins draws, is that enough to secure his spot? Perry gets shifts with the glimmer twins and they seem to love him, does that keep him from the press box? Brown is good defensively, is that enough to keep him in?

Kane – Bruiser, motor, goal scoring, fight anyone dawg. Most likely ends up on the 3rd. Best skill is the same as Skinner, goal scoring, plus he brings a metal lunchbox to bash over heads.

Arvidsson – puck hound, agitator, timely contributor, pks. He’s better then Brown when healthy.

Skinner, Brown, Perry, Ryan are all up for line up removal when/if all forwards are healthy.

Imo Kane replaces Skinner, Arvidsson replaces Brown.

Henrique, Kane, Arvidsson
Ryan, Janmark, Perry.

With Ryan maybe being upgraded to Philp or outside help. Imo Philp is 4C in September but not May.

The PK is still Nuge, Henrique, Janmark, Arvidsson, Podkolzin, Kapanen, Ryan with Brown out of the lineup.

OriginalPouzar

The Emberson fight last game go me thinking that, more and more, the org needs to get his extension done sooner rather than later. He needs 50 NHL games this season or else he’s a Group 6 UFA. Of course, he’s likely to get there as an every day player but injuries could play a factor.

I could see a 2-year, $1.65MM (AAV) type deal – is that in the range?

dangilitis

St. Louis’ decisions are a tad odd. They are really banking on being competitive in the 3-5 year window. Currently they’re a mediocre team with only 3 picks in the 2025 draft and no 2nd round picks for the next 3 years.

dangilitis

Also, losing a 2nd for Broberg is wildly different than for a washed up Fowler. That’s a trade that a playoff team makes to get added insurance in case of injury, and usually fails

MushedPeas

I don’t understand why anyone would recall Brown ever again at this point. Poor Kemp.

OriginalPouzar

The organization has forgot about Phil Kemp. I would have loved to have seen him get this call but knew the chances were all but zero.

cowboy bill

Kemp hasn’t played in an NHL game at his natural position. Pretty sure Brown has.

Scungilli Slushy

If Bouch needs a game I think going L/R is the way

The 3 LD are solid, find the pairs that seem best. Not feeling a Stecher/Emberson/Brown R/R pair

cowboy bill

How about Nurse-Kulak top pair and then rotate Ekholm with the three righties.

OriginalPouzar

I have proposed Nurse/Kulak taking the top minutes with Ekholm/Emberson getting secondary minutes and the 3rd pairing being, well, highly sheltered.

That Nurse/Kulak pairing, in the sample that we have, is literally top of the NHL in metrics.

Nurse has been on the ice for two goals against since Nov 1 (at 5 on 5) – TWO!

Boil-in-the-Oil

Oh boy… Detroit recalled from the AHL, Jack Campbell. Emergency recall. Good luck Jack!

SoCaloil

Acquiring Skinner was an unforced error

you wonder if it’s due to the “ we needed one more goal SCF rhetoric

wish they kept Holly and not signed Skinner Oh well. Ship has sailed

Scungilli Slushy

Given Skinner’s career defensive work yes. Would have saved some cap as well. Very weird decision making, unless they thought they would be able to keep Holloway after waiting him out

Fuge Udvar

I’m sure they definitely thought that. It was a gamble that blew up in their face but not necessarily a bad one looking at the history of offer sheets.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I don’t know, if we are concerned about free agent deals, the Arvi signing was much worse. 2 year term, higher cap hit, and injury history.

Last edited 1 hour ago by Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve
cowboy bill

Skinner & Arvidsson were expected to be Leons wingers. It’s looking more like they will be Henrique’s.

Reja

Why is it always Skinner fault that they lost Holloway. Is it because one poster says so twice a day or this blog. I would say Arvidsson game resembles Hollywoods game more than Skinners. Why doesn’t Leon get any blame if Bowman would of nickled and dimed Leon for 1 million less a year they could of matched the foreseen offer sheet that everyone knew was coming on the great Hollywood.

Bruce McCurdy

Why not both?

Holloway played top 6 minutes on Draisaitl’s wing in the run to Game 7, & by noon on Jul 01 Oilers have already signed both Arvidsson & Skinner. Didn’t just blow the winger budget, but also the opportunity budget as well.

Not hard to imagine Holloway wondering “where do I fit on this team?” after that doubke acquisition of players explicitly identified as top 6 wingers.

2 months into the season, it’s not looking so good:

Holloway 30 GP, 10-9-19, +7
Skinner & Arvidsson combined: 45 GP, 7-9-16, -6

Last edited 42 minutes ago by Bruce McCurdy
DevilsLettuce

Podkolzin and Kapanen are having a whirl of a time riding the opportunity budget on the autobahn.

If Holloway was scared off by competition it’s best that he’s gone.

Bruce McCurdy

Not at all saying he was scared off by competition, just by the Sharpie handwriting on the wall.
The org fairly screamed “we prefer veterans” the entire time he was around.

OriginalPouzar

I don’t actually agree with all of this.

1) Yes, Holloway did spend significant time with Drai in the playoffs but he was also moved off that line a few times. He spent less than 50% of his TOI with Drai. His issue in the top 6 as an Oiler was consistency and he was never able to string together more than a few games together prior to being moved off.

2) I don’t have an issue with management’s process on July 1 as the expectation was to get the expiring ELC RFAs signed to reasonable deals in line with history and market comparables. $1.25MM (or below) was the expectation for Holloway – there weren’t many, if any, that didn’t expect that to get done as the summer dragged on.

The perfect storm being in place for Doug Armstrong effed things up but its tough to predict something that had NEVER happened before in the history of the NHL (double offer sheet) and even a single offer sheet being a rare occurrence.

cowboy bill

Over the years offer sheets have been like the little boy that cried wolf. It looks like there’re more wolves out there than there used to be. I’m sure nickel & diming Leon to sign Holloway would go over well.

SoCaloil

Thanks for laying out the numbers LT

the thing about Podz is he’s hard to play against. You can’t say that about skinner.
Place a guy who’s hard to play against w a guy who is hard to move off the puck ( Drai) and you got rhythm.
Kaspanen has shown good willingness to get to the hard places

Scungilli Slushy

The high motor and being so hard on the puck is critical in playoffs. There wasn’t enough of that last season for some of the fellas

MushedPeas

I remember that being the major criticisms of Holloway and Foegs – too many fly-bys.

Reja

I’ve always felt Leon is the most dangerous playing with a big body that does the dirty work and opens up space. Slepyshev on Leon’s wing against the heavily favourite San Jose- Ducks was memorable and one of the great individual playoff performances in Oilers history.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I have a dream that the Oilers acquire Byram and somehow sign him to a reasonable extension.

Before you ask, I have been drinking.

Todd Macallan

I have that same dream, something like 2025 2nd, 2026 1st, Wanner, Berezkin/Lachance as a starting point, and I haven’t started drinking today, yet.

OriginalPouzar

I like the team’s chances better against Vegas with Bouchard than Josh Brown.

Does anyone think if the word “Kemp” was mentioned to Jackson or Bowman the response would be “what?”

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Haha. Yep. The organization clearly does not view Kemp as an option.

Boil-in-the-Oil

My wish would be Josh catching Pietrangelo with his head down… boom.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not sure if Josh Brown would get within 10 feet of Alex P…. but I’m all for hoping for that.

winchester

I have no doubt Skinners time will come. I’m sure it’s tough for him not being “the guy” but he accepted Oilers offer knowing this and knowing he may have to adapt.

In his pursuit of Stanley I do not see him waiving his ntc in favor of playing time elsewhere. He’s here to win, hopefully he stays positive and contributes where he can.

Bouchards close call is a reminder how quickly the team could be looking around for depth.

YYCOil

I would platoon Skinner into Nuge’s spot on PP1.

  • Skinner getting few goals is a good thing.
  • Nuge plays in all situations now.
  • A fresher Nuge in the spring is a must
SoCaloil

I don’t agree
nuge is complimentary but moves the puck well. And the pp last few games hasn’t been somewhat limited

winston

What’s everyone’s thought on Mario Ferraro? Seems like an ideal player with term. Can’t imagine acquisition cost is too high.

VanIsleOil

He does have a great name.

cowboy bill

He was Emberson’s main partner with the Sharks. They were the second pair. They would be the third pair in Edmonton. He makes Cody Ceci money for another season and becomes UFA. Ceci didn’t fit within the salary structure; I don’t imagine Ferraro would either. If he was a RHD maybe. He probably doesn’t meet the criteria the Oilers are searching for.

OriginalPouzar

Not sure who Stauff is going to imply for acquisition now but Fowler to the Blues (along with a fourth) for a second and a player I am not in the know about. Apx 38% retained (for next year too remember).

GB&Q

there’s still the other Ducks left handed, 33-year-old d-man, Brian Dumoulin.

dangilitis

JFresh card suggests a player with a steep decline in offense and already eroded defense. Thanks, St. Louis

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Thank you, St. Louis!

John Chambers

100%
There are better ways to appropriate $4M than on Cam Flower

Todd Macallan

My thought as well but Bob mentioned recently he thinks Provorov ends up in Vegas due to his history with Kelly McCrimmon from Brandon.

Brantford Boy

I’ll bight… so a 1st and what?

Brantford Boy

I’ll assume this is with no salary retained… for the bigger brains here, can we fit this in the cap without LTIR?

OriginalPouzar

Sure, could be.

I’ve always though that Stauff was describing Fowler with his “can play both sides”, can move the puck and has some term.

Bob routinely included “has some term”. Fowler has the one extra season whereas Proporov is a UFA at this season.

Tarkus

Fun fact: The player acquired by the Ducks is Jeremie Biakabutuka. If his last name sounds familiar, his uncle is Canadian ex-NFL’er Tim Biakabutuka.

Melman

So if Skinner is still stuck on the 3rd/4th line at the end of Feb., do they keep him for “offensive depth” or does he waive his NTC if it’s to a playoff team? Once Kane comes back – who brings much more of what they want/need for the playoffs – it’s not unreasonable to see Skinner as the odd man out watching from popcorn row

OriginalPouzar

I think having a guy like Skinner in the 3rd line is the type of depth championship teams normally have.

Melman

i guess, but in a cap world is he your top choice at $3M for what he brings?

hooefully it’s just been a slow adjustment that will improve

Last edited 2 hours ago by Melman
OriginalPouzar

Fair but $3MM for a third line player that can provide some secondary/tertiary scoring and move up isn’t all that expensive these days.

No PK factors in though, I must admit.

The Oilers won’t be selling, that’s for sure. The only teams that would be acquiring Skinner, as a pending UFA, would be playoff teams looking to improve so the return would be picks/prospects (I would think).

I mean, the Oilers will likely have about $3MM worth of annual cap space at the deadline and anything in addition to that would be money in and money out. He could be a cap dump ala Tyson Barrie if there is a deal they love and they need to move some cap.

For me, 30 games in to the season, I’m not looking to move Jeff Skinner – things could change by February though, of course.

Bruce McCurdy

Phil Kessel says hi. No shame in third liners with scoring chops.

Jinner* has been all over it lately, without much joy. Last game we at CoH had him contributing to 4 Grade A shots, 0 against. He’s a terrier on the puck on his best shifts. Just a matter of time.

(* I have taken to calling the Skinner boys Jinner & Stinner, in the best tradition of Jultz & Nultz)

Tarkus

Prospectification!

It’s Mazura and the Terriers who get a rest. The remaining undectet of NAmateurs shall toil this day.

Don’t look now–okay, you can look now–but the Vermonters Määttä and Münzenberger are in the top 4 of team scoring. The former has 4+8 in 16 GP whilst the latter has 4+5 in 14 GP. In fact, Münzenberger already has more points this year than his two previous combined (1+7 in 60 GP). And it’s interesting to note the depth chart at the start of the season had him at LD, but more recent games have had him at RD.

Akey has made Team Canada and will not be available for tonight’s game but is still listed here.

Vermont (Määttä, Münzenberger) @ 2 p.m.
Notre Dame (Fischer) @ 5 p.m.
Flint (Day, Clattenburg) @ 5 p.m.
London (O’Reilly, Nicholl) @ 5 p.m.
Barrie (Akey, Wakely) @ 5:30 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5:30 p.m.
Muskegon (Berry) @ 6 p.m.

All times, at all times, are Robb time.

Melman

Robb is always late when I go to pick him up😜

Bruce McCurdy

Learned a new word this morning. Thanks!

OriginalPouzar

Munzenburger should be a Condor as soon as his season in Vermont is over.

Sign him to that ELC and I’m just fine if they burn a year of it by playing him in the AHL this season (one game will burn it). I think they could sign him to an ELC that starts next year and play him on an ATO (I think) but I’m fine with burning it.

Also the ELC will be 2 years given his age.

I have some Kesselring type vibes about this player. To be honest, much of that is via limited viewings at the World Juniors but I LOVED his ranginess for team Germany and that is what I loved about Kesselring as well.

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